Thursday, April 8, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0242
BAC has bear desc triangle 3 min, for now

0206
vix moving up ahead of spx down here,,,watching to see if spx goes down,,, spx 1186 last

0157
Bearish 2pm shotting star 60 min ES

0119
1878 and 1886 are other poss short areas

0119
filled on 1872 BAC short, and 1869, avg 1871

0117
BAC is hitting 1872 but no fill yet,,,might need to hit 1873 to fill, this is an example of when a simulator would fill the order but real-time would NOT fill it

0115
adding more BAC short if able at 1872 limit

1257
i am shorting BAC day here 1869

1133
mini bull tiger sds if it holds 30.40, trgt 30.54, last 30.43

1131
bull crouching tiger setup in sds forming, not complete yet

1123
its easier to see it on 2minute chart

1119
bear HS 3min spx setting up, spx last 1179

10:59
a close below yesterday's low would be bearish, and confirm a bear eve star 3 day candle pattern (confirm on 4th day, today)

9:07


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Sparse comments, software testing

I continue to develop and test trading software this week, so comments have been sparse lately.  Will post updates of the software I am programming and de-bugging later.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

345
conditional order on half of tza shares.... sell at 6.53 stop or 6.63 limit

315
nervous faz would take 3% profits now, i'm staying,,,selling 25% of shares for 3% profit

314
nervous tza swings would take profits here at 1% profit, i'll stay in tza swing

0312
stop 30.44 on half of sds to lock in profits

0231
sds 30.13 stop for now, can always buy it back

0227
sds targets are at 3015, 3024, 32.44 with stall at each

0143
ES still looks like it wants another pop up from 1184 before going down today

0143
As expected, ES did go over 1185 to 1186, tho only by 1 point
0116
ES looks like it has more upside over 1185

1245
VIX moving up some here,, spx last 1186

1048
but tza swing is green

1047
stopped out of tna hedge against the tza swing,,,still in tza swing, took loss on day tna

1043
5946 stop on tna day

10:28
in TNA 6016 for day,,, still in tza swing

9:32
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0251
INTC is down 0.75% today

0247
BAC short is red 1.4% for now, expecting turn down in coming hours days

0225
should pullback here,,, spx at 1190 last

0205
1,2, or 1,2,3 after FOMC minutes....
#1 = up (usually reverses)


0203
for select blue chip stocks,,,, MM on the ask, selling

0134
BAC sell prgm 1826

0134
vix jumped back down to 1651

0117
vix popped 1655 to 1665,,,,see if it has any effect in spx

0110
BAC increasing but data suggests they are selling into this in medium size blocks

1235
BAC support at 1817, last 1824
, currently red in the BAC


1054
bought in TZA 6.57

1047
bac 1807 first trgt, last 1817

1023
adding BAC shorts at 18.17 


here 1817,,,,1002
bear flag 3 min spx, last 1184

934
sds R, stall at 3036 expected, ok,,, last 3030

932
*correction BAC is not in profit, slightly red now, sds is green

9:28
sds bac both green now, new swings from yest, nervous tradders would take profits now before market open, or at mkt open, i'm holding them longer

9:22 AM
still testing software, might be sparse comments today

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 5, 2010

Monday ramblings / ES Futures Monday pre-market

353
shorted 1809 BAC

351
its hitting 1810 but i am not getting a fill yet

350
i'll short more BAC 1810 limit, last 1808

344
nervous sds would exit breakeven here, i will hold it longer

339
i'm going to hold


the sds overnight, at least a piece of it, unless it surges and hits the target today
 
329
i will add BAC shorts at 18.23 if able, last 1807

319
1802 BAC target hit achieved, still expecting lower

318
BAC sell programs at 1805

311
BAC hit 1805, or 2 cents from 1803 target ,,,, watching it more here,,,

217
qqqq testing support rite now

214
ES poss bull flag, 60min

212
somethings not "right"... MM games again here,,,,i cant get reliable read which way

153
3043 first sds target,,,last 3014

147
my 1130AM ABOVE THE MARKET buy stop triggered...bought more at 30.15


145
1808 last bac...approcahing the 1803 first target for short

143
BAC is weakening,,,

140
VIX is rite at R now....needs break over it

137
Marketmakers have stepped aside from the buy and sell here and are testing the real buyres now

136
another bac sell prg...1811 bac

133
bac sell prg

128
wow the daily volume on BAC bank america is dramatically less,,, notice volume bars on daily charts,,, 300milllion b4 vs 100million last many days

125
BAC llooks likely to get 1803,,,last 1811

120
"markets can fall without buyers but can only rise with buyers" vs. "never short a dull market"

109
vix bear ttriangle invalidated, but still need the higher vix # from before

1245
bears need to break higher vix out of 3 min desc trianlg, bulls want to hold it,,, vix needs 1730 to break the triangle higher instead of lower,,, last 1718.... bulls want vix under 1716 then 1677

1239
williams %r for sds is at support now,,,expecting sds to move up some,, 3006 last

1235
poss bear desc triangle in vix (bullish for spx)

1229
spx 60 min has made a higher high, but vix 60 min did not make a lower low, made higher low thus far

1209
if the bear HS does form tho, it would violate spx 1181 support and hit 1174 instead

1207
possible bear HS developing on the spx 60min

1204
BAC buy vs sell are about even right now, small down bias

1135
medium size BAC sell programs just hit...

1132
that means if it hits 30.16, i will enter at the market in sds

1130
ABOVE THE MARKET i have a limit buy more 30.15 sds, last 3007

1129
SDS 30.07, buying some more here

1128
thus far, daily spx qqqq candles are bullish,,, but could turn bearish if they convert to shoot stars. for now it is bullish

1103
finally a BAC sell program...first one of day

1048
10,984 DOW now

1028
sds daytrade here at 3020 is still valid to me

1001
trying sds 30.25 here

9:23
i see a bearish divergence settin up on the 60min charts tho, with higher prices but lower macd rsi etc

9:16
software backtesting has results of 400-500% / year for last 5 yrs, in daytrade mode.... about 200% in swing mode,,, including a $7 commission, but we all know that "backtest" isn't always "reality"... using etfs like sso faz tza etc,not options

9:10 AM
I'm still testing / developing this new stock trading software that I'm developing, so comments might be sparse here today.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 2, 2010

VXX instrument unreliable vs VIX


Maybe I'll add more comments later, but the charts below tell the story. VXX did track closely to VIX until July (see 2nd chart), but has not recently.  This implies that if one went long VXX at the March high, and if VIX moves back to equal it's march high, that the VXX will not move as high. So breakeven on the VIX would be a loss in VXX. Perhaps they will re-sync this better in the future, but for now VXX remains unreliable as an instrument to hold overnight.






Note that from April until July 28, the VXX was reliable, it tracked closely to the VIX. But this changed since then.



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Thursday, April 1, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

TRADES (ramblings throughout the day are below the trades posted here)
941 AM: in faz 1308

1320 faz sold some...even tho it should break higher


1108 AM bought back faz i sold at 1320 for 1315 (scalp).... daytrade still in from 1309

1221: buying TZA for SWING here 6.99, stop 6.66 for now


1:21 raising stop on 50% of FAZ daytrade to breakeven 1312,,,,this is not moving,,,if it moves in wrong direction i'm out,,, took some profit already at 1321


0129

paying the 702 tza lol

0135
faz 1311 stop...on half of shares.. missed stopout by one penny and it didnt surge down, so giving it a little room to breath,,, lol one more penny

0140
1307 stop...will manage this manually

0206
trgt 724 tza,,, 1334/42 faz, to start

0208
taking profits on some tza here ... 1.65%,,,, keeping rest for higher trgt

233
i will buy back some tza 706 limit, if able,,,still have some from 702

255
tza 709 if able

259
711 tza if able

300
711 limit tza more...filled



----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
337
bac buy prg countered by a sell program lol... how interesting

337
buy prog now, bac

336
watching if it moves down now, in 2min... BAC 1794 last

333
this looks like stop


run not real,, headfake up
 
329
small BAC sell prg.....expecting more selling in bac into the close

323
if it closes strong, it will be repaired

323
tza has nasty bear long leg doji 60 min,,, watching for that to repair today

318
BAC selling more here,, sell prg

316
poss bear HS 3min tza but i remain tza swing.. i like 60 min tza charts
 / daily

251
i think its impt where we close today... if tza vix and others close OVER their R,,, very bearish for spx qqqq.. a vix close over 1835/1875

245
this move is not even that big, it just seems big cuz we were so narrow before LOL

243
tza broke the 1717 R,,, prior hi

242
if BAC re-tests 1775 1767 that would be great for faz,,, but its at 1791 now

0239
watching 717 tza here,,,,is R,,, see if it stalls or breaks over it,,, break over should give 1724

0209
VIX at resist here,,,, watching for stall or breakthru

0204
on narrow range days,,,,just need more shares since profits near 1%ish,,,is why i bought more thru the day

0155
will prob sell half of faz 1334/42,,,,will see where it stalls

0153
tza 727 / 7.24 target if able

0149
wow VIX went parabolic,,, 3min

0148
1334 faz target, last 1325

0147
that's why i had a stop at 1312 before,,,if it surged like this,,, when it moved down slowly, i lowered stop to give room,,,if moved fast i would have got stopped out

0146
FAZ at high of day now,,,not selling yet,,,, still expecting it to break since noontime

0145
massive selling BAC

0144
now BAC moving down,,,,at least that one was headfake stoprun,,, still in the faz,,,, 1311 not hit anyways

0141
its looking like stop running here, headfakes,,,

0138
14,3,3 stoch not 5,3,1

0137
LOL the VIX stoch is actually ZERO on 3 min...dont actually see zero very often

0129
paying the 702 tza lol

0125
BAC buy prog

0123
looking for 1314 faz to hold, else can buy back cheaper if merited.... if 1314 breaks it will prob drop

0115
grr i cannot get a fill on more tza 701 lol

0105
doubling daytrade size in tza 701 if able

1235
here goes faz again to try to test HOD,,, watching if it breaks it, if not, i'll sell again up there and buy back, expecting a break higher but maybe not till later

1231
tza breaking higher here,,,shoulld test 7.15, last 7.00... bull crouching tiger setup

1229
tza could get a higher hi today

1227
BAC sell prgm here 1801

1221
buying TZA for SWING here 6.99, stop 6.66 for now

1211
bull crouching tiger chart pattern setup in FAZ for daytrade from 1313

1208
QLD $ traded thus far: 124 million, vs QID 201 million,,,thats dollars NOT shares vol

1203
BAC sell program

1155
BAC buy prgm

1153
xlf would be bear evening star

1152
possible bull morning star setups in faz and vix, 3 day pattern, today is day 2, will be watching for that

1147
also there is a 3 min bullish diverg in faz but of course 3min diverg are weaker

1146
FAZ charts suggests FAZ to test HOD and break higher....HOD 1322, last 1313

1144
still in faz daytrade... weaker but still valid,,, its chopping around here but still valid

1137
WOW grr... the thinkorswim charts froze...what a mess,,, but strategyDesk is also running simultaneously.... good to have BACKUP plans

1118
vix 15min.... bull asc triangle or bear flag??? watching

1118
VIX rising a lil as spx rises...vix usually wins....


1112
BAC sell program countering last buy prog....

1111
i think that last BAC was headfake,,,watching tho

1110
BAC buy prog

1105
hmm now there is some buying in bac, small, but buying volume is getting higher

1058
1320 faz sold some...even tho it should break higher

1058
locking some profits here scalp at .8% not quite 1% but close enough...holding rest for higher faz,,,

1052
if FAZ doesnt break 1320 soon i'll take some off to lock some profits....
1050
scalpers would take 0.75% profit here in faz and buy back,,, daytraders would hold longer

1044
being careful on shorts via faz because could be a bear flag... but still in faz for now, stilll valid premise

1042
faz hit 1312 my 1310 faz limit to add more not filled

1040
ANOTHER bac sell prog... 1798 ... they could turn it back up of course, but right now BAC being sold

1033
i will ADD TO FAZ if able... last 1318,,, limit more at 13.10

1029
FAZ at resis here 1319...stall and lil pullback expected.. i remain in FAZ from 1309

1027
more selling in BAC...at 1796.... they r lowering each sell program.... 1800 1797 1796

1018
another BAC sell program, again at 1798

1009
added more faz because charts were same BUT a BAC sell program kicked in

1008
adding more faz, same price, 1309

1005
BAC sell program at 1801

952
this move down will setup a 60min swing bull diverg for FAZ in coming hours, not finished developing yet,,,, histogram macd will prob form a higher trough low

941
in faz 1308

928AM
Still testing software. sparse comments today. will post trades tho.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".