0415
i am cancelling the skf sell 2143 AH and raising the price to 2163 for now
0407
will sell some tza n try to buy back later ,,,3530 for
0405
sold
some tza 34.99 AH...other 25%,,,still
have half,, wow shouldve waited made 3515 lol,, but 3.8% profit in one day is fine too
0400
grr missed 2123 by 3 cents,,,forced to sell at close 2120 skf,,,holding tza faz skf swing
0352
3470 limit sell more tza if able scalp
0343
limit sell some skf 2124 last 2117/.... 2117 was a trgt
0339
taking 25% off more tza here at same target for 2.09% scalp profit,,,still have half left
0328
3:34 PM trgt to break 1093 if velocity stays constant
0326
tza back at the 2% profit here now if missed b4,,,at 3455,,,i'm holding mine for higher trgt
0325
skf trgt 2124,,2133
0323
tza hit 3454 or one penny over the 3453,,,sold some tza at 3543 trgt,,,still have 75%
0322
ES trgts: 1093,90,88 with stall each one
0315
skf hit 2114 trgt exactly and stalled,,,still see it going up moer
0312
there goes TZA,,,taking 25% of sharess off for 1.5% profit (scalp not swing tza)
0312
skf need 2114 to get going...its gone up to 2107 so far
0310
ahh..now the skf stoch has hit its target...lets see how much upside it gives this time....
0309
theres the below the mkt short ES 109450 :D :P ,,, the ES broke 1095 within the 8 minutes
0307
ES 1095 is still breakable....watching,,target in 8 minutes
0302
skf faz stoch only 32,,,need the > 42,, no momentum yet
0259
hmm minor buy progr warning now ES,,but contractictory reports
0258
agressive could short here on expectation of 1095 es break next try,,,or below the mkt 109450
0255
one could say theres a bear rising wedge on ES 15min,,the wedge has broken lower BUT it could climb back inside where there is more upside before the apex,,not a decisive break
0253
yea....ES close to testing 1095 not there just yet,,,watching if it breaks it if it does test it
0246
charts r suggsting a 1095 break in es lower on next test
0236
my declining resis on SKF is now at 2104 not 2108,,,suggesting a break over 2104 would break the downchannel
0233
swing trader algo just flashed another BUY TZA
0231
my work suggests sellers are above mkt at 1099 and BELOW mkt at 1090 ES
0221
last stoc at 25,, i dont assume succes on the cross over 20, rather i want to see the 42 stoch
0220
new stoch breakout target revised for SKF is 10min stoch over 42,,,should give upside,,,failure to do so will give sideways or more down
0218
tza target 3453 and 3554 and 3600/3625 trgts,,last 3405
0211
my software just threw a sell program warning at ES 1096
0211
BAC just broke its lower BB on the 3min
0210
suggesting the .09 should break higher,
0209
skf has resist at 2109 but a 2103 would still trigger a buy on it
0208
BAC lim to add more shorts 1348 was filled,,it hit 1349 ,,,now backed down to 1343
0206
skf 2109 will hit resist and prob stall there, last 2096
0203
they r trying to push XLF thru its resist,,,hasnt triggered buying yet depsite the minor viloation over yest high,,right now its bearish for xlf unless it breaks with force
0157
ES 3min has a bull pennant so watching to see if it will break higher or not,,,its right at resist tho
0140
more BAC short ...trade 2 of poss 4,,, 1348 near the 1350 trgt,,, will add more 1370,,or maybe add more lower, unknown
0125
another 25% may be added at 2:03 PM
0125
my program autotrader 81% success is entering tza swing here,,,25% size position 33.90
0117
bought bak tza i got stopped out on b4,,,here at 3380
0111
XLF just hit daily R...adding shorts in xlf via skf 20.93, and 1467 faz
1237
if skf takes out .31 it should go for HOD and higher
1226
adding some skf here at 2121
1223
well clearly i sold my gold too early and could have had better profits than the 4% i took by selling yest,,,,grr,,,gold just hit the target i had for it yest (sold b4 trgt hit)
1222
still no fill on the extra SKF....waiting at 2114 last 2120,, it may go to 2110 or below, so 25-50% size shares
1217
ES hit 1092 or 1 point from the 1093 R target b4 at 11:15 AM,,,i'll short on a retest up near that area
1204
i'll do skf 2114 lim if filled, last 2120
1138
wow tza missed my stop by 3 cents...still in tza,,i'll allow .37 not .43,,,will do manually maybe since so cloase,,, last 3470
1120
last trade--i'm trading the backtest down in ES to the broken coil...watching to see if it bounce up again or breaks even lower
1117
1497 faz scalp again
1115
the ES broke higher from the small coil...now ES also has a downchannel in 60min with R at 1093 now,,,watching to see if that breaks higher out of channel or holds down
1056
i'm also using skf RSI on 15min chart for an earlier signal in add to 60min: need 15min rsi over 64
1051
but charts are not setup to use the 10/15min stoch,,,needing to use the 60min rsi for now, for same trigger
1050
SKF simple view: if the rsi on 60min can get over 63 then it should pop higher nicely, last only 52,,,watching that for now,,,similar to the 10min stoch trigger from last several days (100% accurate signal thus far last 8 days) when triggered,,,that would be bullish skf, bearish skf, bear spx
1040
ES under 1088 is bearish, within a bear pennant 3min, intraday
1034
XLF has similar pattern on 10min chart
1032
*15min chart
1032
ES has a bearish modified 5 methods pattern 60min with 4 candles not 5,,,,but will need confirmation with a break under the LOD
1028
TZA trgts to be set after done watching ES here,,,wanna see what ES wants to do
1025
taking 9 cents profit here on half of faz scalp 1517
1022
this is the "pullback" i mentioned before in ES<,,we should know which way it deceides to go soon
1020
i have an agressive short entry setup scalp faz long 1508
1016
wow this tza is jumpin all around,,,stop on swing is set at 3443 to lock a little profit if stopped,,,took half off already for 4% profit,,,the other swing tza is up 12% (longer term swing from 3100ish)
0101
this pattern is ES>..whether bullish or bearish outcome,,,usually this will pull back from 1089 some,,,then decide to go up or down after the pullback
1004
xlf sell progr warn at es 108650, stage one sell would be mild if triggered,,then stage 2 bigger, if triggered
947
ES should stall here bounce,,,,if not shows weakness at 1084
945
FAZ trgt 1531 1555 1570 1607 1749 1810 1900 with 1570 and 1607 the primary initial ones
943
BAC is showing some strength this morn vs the spx but that just presents poss opp to add shorts,,,no additinos yet,, BAC currently at my entry price 1332 but 1340 1350 1370 all possible before declines
934
i'll take 25% of TZA off here to lock a 3% profit from buy yesterday,tho i see much higher,,,thats the tza from 34.23 not the 31.00 cost,, 31.00 tza is longer term swing
933
also interested in silver,,well gold has gapped down,,,glad i took the profits yest
922 AM Tues
i'm looking at BAC here now, for mid term holds 5-20 days,,still a v good stock to short,,,trying to pick spots,, but there are a variety of patterns to observe in it before adding shorts,, there's a bull fall wedge but thats within a downchannel,,,so seeing if it wants to break wedge higher to go for channel resist,,,or whether it just deteriorates inside the wedge slower
Tues eve 10:21 pm
I took profits on swing gold today but silver has a diff chart,,,looking at possible silver entry via 60.10 if able (last 60.97)... 59.30 is another buy area possibility,,, will be watching charts for appropriate entries
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, August 17, 2010
Monday, August 16, 2010
tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
0412
ES still under pressure here now
0411
xlf up only 0.78% today vs russel up 1.6%
0404
tza is up now 1.5% from earlier buy today,,,,gold is gone for now for 5%ish profit only,,, faz ROI is now 12% down from 17% yest,, newly acquired skf is red now down 0.5% one half percent
0358
2137 limit sell if able
0355
1091 trgt just hit :D
0347
1409 xlf trgt last 1415
0342
2136 skf trgt revised from 2140 on that break
0341
ES 10911 then 1088 trgts still valid
0339
ES just hit my 1093.,50 trgt,,,
0332
tza is a little above cost now,,newly acquired TZA today
0320
sell progr warnin in xlf 1415,,es 1094
0317
if skf gets over 2124 it could quickly see 2140, xlf is closer to
breaking than spx,,if so xlf can pull down spx
0312
usually only get that setup once a day
0311
the 10min stoch gave a nice warning for a 20 cent pop up in skf...thats 100% wins on that signal,,,5 for 5 in last few days
0307
tza has the same signal setup
0306
no guarantees but i have an "add faz swing" here with 82% win rate,,,as long as it holds over todays low it should be fine
0304
likely hold, pop up some, then break lower
0304
xlf is at support now,,,watching for hold or break
300pm
ES breakdown setup,,,ES 10911 then 1088 trgts
0248
the stoch trigger will usually give a 10min--60min warning of upside in advance,,,watching to see if this one works,,,got the trigger but its right at R
0243
hmm skf is flirting with that 49 stoch target here also,,,,watching to see if that will push the xlf down n skf up
0227
the vxx faz n tza gave a much higher % return than gold,,,but need to diversify
0221
i have a sell prog warn in xlf here....lets see if it does anythning,,,milkd one for now
0219
the skf faz stoch
10min at 38 now...,,,still needs the 47 to pop higher
0206
exiting gold for now,,,dgp out 3236,,,looks like time to exit, take profit from 3106, and re-enter,,,also added shares
and breakeven on the additional shares
158
skf is now trying to break out of this downchannel wedge thing its in...minor breka higher
152
adding tza 3416, avg 3416+3472/2=3444 avg
150
macd sig should get over 0 on next move up...touched near 0 on last,,,thats the sig line not histogram,,,(tho hist will also go over 0)
149
xlf 3min macd sig line bear diverg...3x diverg should be enough for a pullbakc on xlf
146
doing tbt 3292 here
144
i still have no "add more swing shorts" setup,,,maybe in next 1-2 hrs but not likely b4 today close
140
shorting ES 1098 via spxu
117pm
this is wave 5 up in xlf intraday
1258
heres the gold breakout forming...still forming but looks like a new HOD coming
1246
sounds crazy but i almost have an "add more shorts" swing setup....but it will NOT come for at least 1 more hour,,,its in develop stage now
1236
the skf stoch 10min needs to get over 47 to get skf going up,,bearish until then,,,watching for that,,,charts suggest that its going to try for over 47,,,last 29
1232
theres a poss setup for a break higher in gold GLD DGP,,last dgp 3237
1216
2123 is trgt for skf test up here,,,its still bearish until 2123 breaks higher, last 2114
1210
1089 target,,,if it kicks in
1209
LOL an actuall sell program warning? lets see if it does anything,, at ES 1095
1124
xlf has a bear diverg in 3min setting up that should give a pullback
1122
taking 2115 skf ...close enough
1119
limit more skf 2112 if filled last 2116
1117preparing to buy pos #3 in skf
1111
spx at or near 200 MA now
1110
ES is close to trendline resist 1093ish
1058
adding skf here 3131
1053
theres the expected bounce on xlf,,,now watching to see if it turns down or not
1048
ES is moving near its HOD but xlf not confirming this up
1035
oops coiling not soiling LOL
1034
ES is now soiling,,,could go up or down,,still biased down for now
1032
BAC is a mess :) down at 1316 from its stab at 1335ish,,,good for the shorts
1032
xlf "should have" bounced here or it should...this is weak bearish if not,,thus far no bounce
1031
a 15min VIX close over 2501 should send the spx down ,,,, last 2480
1028
SKF FAZ just filled the gap...watching for it to push thru it now,,,a turn down here first would be normal
1024
my auto program trader just entered skf,,, limit filled 21.45 ,,barely got a fill on the 2145 it hit 2144
1022
this is buy #1 of 4 if filled,,,25% early entry
1022
my autotrader has a limit skf 21.45 long if able and filled, last 2151,,,to hold for hours not minutes,,,82% win rate
1019
if ES gets a 10 or 15min close under 1082 that would be v bearsih,,,holding thus far but still biased down for now
1013
i have a 10min chart "xlf weaker" warning but no new shorts yet,,,holding the faz swing still,, the warning often results in sideways for a little while before going lower
1012
if XLF and ES doesnt move up from here but stays here then my algo program trader will likely enter short SPX and short XLF,,but not for at least 10minutes maybe an hour
1008
3260 next dgp trgt, last 3240
1006
gold DGP has marginally violated yest hi to upside,,,watching for more movement up...last 2 days have been no gold movement during the day, all increases on the 4% up have come via gaps up
959
thus far i see weakness in XLF that will prevent any big ramp today,,,will see tho,,, generally on a "ramp higher" day strength will be seen in the first 30 min not weakness
954
if ES or BAC starts to surge i'll exit and reeval
953
i took some partial profits in BAC before in both stock and options,,,remaining half was red this morn but now at breakeven in BAC.... remaining options r still red of course,, options i may need
to take a loss but the stock should be
profitable,,,no decay
948
in gold via dgp 32.33 for todays shares,,,,31.50ish avg cost,,,,stop on gold tite, if it goes under yest low i'll take lil loss not much (loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain),,,(loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain about 1.5%)
933
GOLD swing is up 4% roi thus far,,,looking to add more gold here via dgp,,watching for entry
5:45 AM Tues
ES above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. I remain bearish from a swing perspective as long as ES is under 1089 and 1110. If 1089 breaks higher I will likely lock some profits on previously entered swing shorts and look to re-enter, while holding others for the 1108 test,,,but it depends on what charts look like.
5:43 AM Tues
The ES climbed up to 1084.75, just over the 1084 target. ES could go for the 1089 target (or higher if that breaks), but the charts now suggest a pullback. As long as the pullback stays above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. Charts suggest that if 1081 breaks then 1078 gets tested else a pivot back up of 1078 to retest the 1085 and then 1089.
1103pm monday
v interesting futures action tonight. The 1077 broke and did hit the 1073 target, and ES has since pivoted up to 1080. Targets would be 1082,84,89....a break of 1082 would be significant and a break over 1089 could turn the ES v bullish. This will be fun to watch,,,perhaps there will be some volatility during 930am--4pm tomorrow.
730 PM
there it is..the 1077 has broken as expected, on "high vol" for afterhours trading
6:41 PM Monday
i have a short ES
setup here 1078/77 for a multihour hold. 1076.75 has been support the last 3 hours and charts r suggesting it will break lower 1073,70,68,66 targets with 1073 and 1066 the primary ones.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES still under pressure here now
0411
xlf up only 0.78% today vs russel up 1.6%
0404
tza is up now 1.5% from earlier buy today,,,,gold is gone for now for 5%ish profit only,,, faz ROI is now 12% down from 17% yest,, newly acquired skf is red now down 0.5% one half percent
0358
2137 limit sell if able
0355
1091 trgt just hit :D
0347
1409 xlf trgt last 1415
0342
2136 skf trgt revised from 2140 on that break
0341
ES 10911 then 1088 trgts still valid
0339
ES just hit my 1093.,50 trgt,,,
0332
tza is a little above cost now,,newly acquired TZA today
0320
sell progr warnin in xlf 1415,,es 1094
0317
if skf gets over 2124 it could quickly see 2140, xlf is closer to
breaking than spx,,if so xlf can pull down spx
0312
usually only get that setup once a day
0311
the 10min stoch gave a nice warning for a 20 cent pop up in skf...thats 100% wins on that signal,,,5 for 5 in last few days
0307
tza has the same signal setup
0306
no guarantees but i have an "add faz swing" here with 82% win rate,,,as long as it holds over todays low it should be fine
0304
likely hold, pop up some, then break lower
0304
xlf is at support now,,,watching for hold or break
300pm
ES breakdown setup,,,ES 10911 then 1088 trgts
0248
the stoch trigger will usually give a 10min--60min warning of upside in advance,,,watching to see if this one works,,,got the trigger but its right at R
0243
hmm skf is flirting with that 49 stoch target here also,,,,watching to see if that will push the xlf down n skf up
0227
the vxx faz n tza gave a much higher % return than gold,,,but need to diversify
0221
i have a sell prog warn in xlf here....lets see if it does anythning,,,milkd one for now
0219
the skf faz stoch
10min at 38 now...,,,still needs the 47 to pop higher
0206
exiting gold for now,,,dgp out 3236,,,looks like time to exit, take profit from 3106, and re-enter,,,also added shares
and breakeven on the additional shares
158
skf is now trying to break out of this downchannel wedge thing its in...minor breka higher
152
adding tza 3416, avg 3416+3472/2=3444 avg
150
macd sig should get over 0 on next move up...touched near 0 on last,,,thats the sig line not histogram,,,(tho hist will also go over 0)
149
xlf 3min macd sig line bear diverg...3x diverg should be enough for a pullbakc on xlf
146
doing tbt 3292 here
144
i still have no "add more swing shorts" setup,,,maybe in next 1-2 hrs but not likely b4 today close
140
shorting ES 1098 via spxu
117pm
this is wave 5 up in xlf intraday
1258
heres the gold breakout forming...still forming but looks like a new HOD coming
1246
sounds crazy but i almost have an "add more shorts" swing setup....but it will NOT come for at least 1 more hour,,,its in develop stage now
1236
the skf stoch 10min needs to get over 47 to get skf going up,,bearish until then,,,watching for that,,,charts suggest that its going to try for over 47,,,last 29
1232
theres a poss setup for a break higher in gold GLD DGP,,last dgp 3237
1216
2123 is trgt for skf test up here,,,its still bearish until 2123 breaks higher, last 2114
1210
1089 target,,,if it kicks in
1209
LOL an actuall sell program warning? lets see if it does anything,, at ES 1095
1124
xlf has a bear diverg in 3min setting up that should give a pullback
1122
taking 2115 skf ...close enough
1119
limit more skf 2112 if filled last 2116
1117preparing to buy pos #3 in skf
1111
spx at or near 200 MA now
1110
ES is close to trendline resist 1093ish
1058
adding skf here 3131
1053
theres the expected bounce on xlf,,,now watching to see if it turns down or not
1048
ES is moving near its HOD but xlf not confirming this up
1035
oops coiling not soiling LOL
1034
ES is now soiling,,,could go up or down,,still biased down for now
1032
BAC is a mess :) down at 1316 from its stab at 1335ish,,,good for the shorts
1032
xlf "should have" bounced here or it should...this is weak bearish if not,,thus far no bounce
1031
a 15min VIX close over 2501 should send the spx down ,,,, last 2480
1028
SKF FAZ just filled the gap...watching for it to push thru it now,,,a turn down here first would be normal
1024
my auto program trader just entered skf,,, limit filled 21.45 ,,barely got a fill on the 2145 it hit 2144
1022
this is buy #1 of 4 if filled,,,25% early entry
1022
my autotrader has a limit skf 21.45 long if able and filled, last 2151,,,to hold for hours not minutes,,,82% win rate
1019
if ES gets a 10 or 15min close under 1082 that would be v bearsih,,,holding thus far but still biased down for now
1013
i have a 10min chart "xlf weaker" warning but no new shorts yet,,,holding the faz swing still,, the warning often results in sideways for a little while before going lower
1012
if XLF and ES doesnt move up from here but stays here then my algo program trader will likely enter short SPX and short XLF,,but not for at least 10minutes maybe an hour
1008
3260 next dgp trgt, last 3240
1006
gold DGP has marginally violated yest hi to upside,,,watching for more movement up...last 2 days have been no gold movement during the day, all increases on the 4% up have come via gaps up
959
thus far i see weakness in XLF that will prevent any big ramp today,,,will see tho,,, generally on a "ramp higher" day strength will be seen in the first 30 min not weakness
954
if ES or BAC starts to surge i'll exit and reeval
953
i took some partial profits in BAC before in both stock and options,,,remaining half was red this morn but now at breakeven in BAC.... remaining options r still red of course,, options i may need
to take a loss but the stock should be
profitable,,,no decay
948
in gold via dgp 32.33 for todays shares,,,,31.50ish avg cost,,,,stop on gold tite, if it goes under yest low i'll take lil loss not much (loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain),,,(loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain about 1.5%)
933
GOLD swing is up 4% roi thus far,,,looking to add more gold here via dgp,,watching for entry
5:45 AM Tues
ES above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. I remain bearish from a swing perspective as long as ES is under 1089 and 1110. If 1089 breaks higher I will likely lock some profits on previously entered swing shorts and look to re-enter, while holding others for the 1108 test,,,but it depends on what charts look like.
5:43 AM Tues
The ES climbed up to 1084.75, just over the 1084 target. ES could go for the 1089 target (or higher if that breaks), but the charts now suggest a pullback. As long as the pullback stays above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. Charts suggest that if 1081 breaks then 1078 gets tested else a pivot back up of 1078 to retest the 1085 and then 1089.
1103pm monday
v interesting futures action tonight. The 1077 broke and did hit the 1073 target, and ES has since pivoted up to 1080. Targets would be 1082,84,89....a break of 1082 would be significant and a break over 1089 could turn the ES v bullish. This will be fun to watch,,,perhaps there will be some volatility during 930am--4pm tomorrow.
730 PM
there it is..the 1077 has broken as expected, on "high vol" for afterhours trading
6:41 PM Monday
i have a short ES
setup here 1078/77 for a multihour hold. 1076.75 has been support the last 3 hours and charts r suggesting it will break lower 1073,70,68,66 targets with 1073 and 1066 the primary ones.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday ramblings
0359
wouldnt be surprised to see a 2-5 pt drop in ES after close,,,by 430 or 6pm
0357
\i still like the faz swing short xlf,,,will keep it
0349
1550 faz into the close, with other entry at .63
0345
using .58 skf stop mental now under the .68
0338
i'mn buying the trendline touch 1557 faz
0330
SKF is rite at 3min support now,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks to next supprt level,, i think it will pivot up
0329
82% algo program trader just took profit on half of skf,,,, 100% wins since friday on it
0325
its within realm of poss that 1607 FAZ trgt is hit today
0313
still see 1070 trgt
from the 75 brk,,,then a rounded top break target of 1061 on break of 1069
0310
40 cents or 1.3% on the spxu piece
0308
taking 25% of that spxu from hours ago off here for 4 points ES,,,still holding for 8 or more ESpoints on the other 75%
0306
my skf stoch at 84 now up from 78---it still needs 90 on the 10min to break the high
0305
3min xlf has a buy but i dont wanna fight the 15 and 60min sell setups,,yet
0303
xlf has a 3min bull diverg but i am trying to hold the skf thru it,,,may get stopped out of last 25%,,,conserv would exit now for reentry
0258
selling 25% more up here to lock profits in skf,,and running with the last 25% until stoped out,,,holding the faz tza vxx bacshort swings
0255
if the stoch skf faz in 10min can hit 90 then it should make new HOD,,,last stoch 78,,, oversold is "good" /bullish when its newly oversold
0253
SKF hit the .88 trgt,,,it should now go after the HOD
0252
this one took aboput 15min to kick in
0251
this is stage one of the 2nd sell program warnin,,,stage 2 still valid to follow
0250
wow skf hit .71 or one penny from the .70 stop and pivoted up to 2181,,,i'm still in the 2nd half
0244
ES 1070 trgt on break of 1074.75
0243
this sell prog could break ES support,,so watching close
0237
i've got another xlf sell prog warning,,the first warning reliably triggered tday 3 min later,,good for next 3to 41 min
0235
BAC short here is also valid at .18---it looks like its headed for 1300
0234
i might double the BAC short at 1325 depending on chart landscape,,,if it gets there,,, last 1317
0228
*if .70 is hit,,i'll exit at the mkt
0227
the skf scalp is right at my mental stop,,,may exit here .72 .70 and reenter,,,still holding faz,,last skf .74
0225
so i'll hold this faz swing over 1500ish and exit the skf if mental stops hit
0224
xlf should go lower (tho may go higher first,,,my lower targets still i see them)
0221
mental stop at 2173 near my old orig trgt on skf
0217
trying a stop at 2165 for a few cents profit for now on remaining half of skf,,,taking another 25% off here 2182 and holding last half
0213
taking additinoal 10% profit on 25% of the BAC puts,,,expecting much more but locking some in here
0211
taking 2183 profits,,,close enuf to .86,, on 25% of shares
0208
skf just hit the older .78 target but now i've raised it to .86....waiting :)
0207
xlf stage 2 selling should happen here now
0202
ok we got the 10min stoch trigger signal on skf...its at 72 now...lets see if it can repeat fridays performacne,, a pullback down first in skf (up spx) would be normal
0201
conserv traders would use 2173 trgt,,,perhaps i may need to take 25% off there idk
0158
hmm now i have skf stret target for 25-50% of shares replacing the 2178 target,,,,i'll watch the .78 to see reaction for poss higher sell instead
0154
theres the sell program,,, 3 min later,,, the stoch is waking up on 10min,,now at 51,,,,still need the 61 on stoch to get going in faz skf :)
0152
i still have the 2178 sell 25-50% of skf to lock profit
0150
xlf sell prog warning,,,mild one, nothing fabulous, at es 1079
0149
charts 3min xlf say "should go down" but really we have "chop charts" for now still
0138
its one reason why i continue to hold the faz n xkf, for now,,,also the stoch macd rsi and trendlines
0137
no guarantees but the bull asc triangl in xlf did not breakout,,,and moved sideways instead,,,this behaviour is often bearish and will cause a collapse
0123
if we get 1077.75 ES should give 2 points more down
0104
chart landscape has changed,,,now i'm watching the 10min stoch on skf faz to get over 61 vs the older 60min stoch values
1255
that XLF and FAS bull asc triangle in 3min may have trapped some bulls,,,watching this now
1250
BELOW the mkt 1078,75 short es
1246
skf has a bear desc triangle but it is marginally failing and may turn bullish instead on a reverse breakout
1244
ABOVE the mkt SKF at 2167
1233
BAC is in trouble methinkgs,,,,"warning signs" no break yet, last 1324
12222
program trader
just added more skf 2156,,,position #2 of 4
possibly buys in skf
1218
thus far faz is holding its 60min uptrend channel support,, if it holds here my revised trgt is 1649 after 1607 is broken, last 1539,,,must hold around here to be valid
1204
now theres a buy progr warning,,,mixed chop signals,,,poss break higher in ES spx
1200
hmm i have a sell program warning here,,,other factors contradict it tho so watdhing, at es 1078.50
1131
program trader in for an early entry,,,, 2168 skf, 1545 FAZ
1129
my program trader may enter the skf or faz 25% starter position at 1131,,in 2 minutes
1126
a break of 107475 es ===> 1072 trgt
1125
60min skf is at 7150 now from 68.....watching that 78 for a breakout if its hit
1121
skf is 5 cents away from filling the .78 order to sell 1/4 to half of SKF for 1%ish profit
1118
..fwiw,,,my program autotrader is close to SHORTINGT the xlf for a multi-hour trade .this algo has 82% wins if triggered...its the same algo that did 2 wins on Friday (100% friday)
1115
i'll take 25% of skf shares off for profit on skf 2178 if able from 2163/2155
1111
if 107525 i'll take off 25-50% of ES shares for 3 points profit / 2.75ish
1104
the ES 1077.25 test gave a nice 9 min warning and plenty of time to enter short,,,,
1103
oops...those stochastics are for the 60min faz skf chart,,,not the 15min...today using the 60min,,,mistyped
1059
conversely a stoch move < 58 could turn the skf faz bearish,,,last 68
1056
simple view: watch the 15min FAZ or SKF stoch to hit 78 and that should cause a run for the highs or higher,,,,this is similar to the 10min stoch signal used friday that gave a signal 1 hour in advnce
1052
ES hit 1077.25--the 1078 shorts "should work" now
1051
1077.25 below the mkt short ES could work
1045
but if it can hurdle 1081 then maybe get some upside traction
1044
ES is having trouble at the 1078 area as expected,,,its now starting to form a bear rising wedge 3min,,,15min starting to look tired
1043
over 2200 i may consider reversing long
1042
COMP last 2189,,,,i will likely short comp 2195 if able
1040
i got filled on the skf buy at 2155 it hit .53 low so far
1029
the BAC DTL resist is at about 1342ish now on 60min,,,may add there if able short,,,tho the .31 is heavy resist until broken
1028
my analysis suggests that the FAZ should make another stoch trip on 60min chart over 78 for higher FAZ before a larger pullback (to re-buy),,,, unsure if we will get it but thats what i see,,hence my "holding the faz swing" for now
1023
shorting the ES
here at 1078 via spxu
1018
on ES i have a secxondary resist trendlinline dec;lining now at 1079, last 1077
0105
limit buy more skf 2155 if able,,,prob will not get a fill, last 2166
1010
reloading on skf scalp here at .68,,,a
1006
ES is now testing impt trendline resist,,,watching,,, 1075
1001
skf which is short xlf is v strong over 2176 intraday,,,steep uptrend support line,,,,my 60min timing analysis suggests that today might present an opp to sell some FAZ to take some profits,,,and then re-enter swing at a lower price to buy back,,,will be watching
956
ES 3min has the inv HS bullish but the XLF i see a daily bear flag,,,believe the xlf will prevail in the dual
955
i know its been 3 days and the ES 1062/51 targets havent been hit but i still see them, for now
953
scalpers can lock in 10 cents profit here on skf,,,of course i'll hold longer
951
i just got a mild "sell progr warn" for xlf,,,may spill over to ES, at ES 1073.25
948
my 15 and 60min charts are saying "short rallies",, 3min says buy LOL
944
when the 5,3,3 not 14,3,3 stoch 3min skf hits <20 i will likely add another 25% to skf scalp for 50% size,,,but will chek charts when it gets there
942
theres is also a larger bear HS tho with a 10 point range LOL,,,a clunky one requiring "aritistic poetic license", 15min ES chart
939
skf,,scalp, taking 25% position new here at 2171
936
sellers "should be" waiting at 1071, 74, and 75 ES,,,if not then possible ES rally,,,still have bear bias for now under that 1080 DTL
934
if BAC can break
that 1294 then BAC could fall fas,,tho i expect bounce there first
Looking for a spot today to possibly double the BAC position before taking profits
929
for holds over 1 hour,,,ES has a clunky bear HS type thing while under 1074 that points to a target of 1061 if the 1071 breaks,, interestingly the 1061 ir right at Fridays target 1064/62
922
if BAC hits 1298--1305ish i may take profits on half of those options puts
912
ES has 2 declining resist trrendlines now at 1076 and 1080 R,,,will be watching to see if those hold. If so, Friday's lower are still the target,,, 1064/61 and 1051.... still have the lower 1051 as valid while ES < 1080
909
Today some of the swings might hit their targets to sell half of the position, will be watching....
9:08 AM
SWINGS: VXX is now at the 10% roi profit level, starting to catch up to FAZ 15% and TZA 22% (from 31.30 cost)... Gold continues its slow ascent up, the DGP is up about 2% pre-market and 4.5% roi, the newly acquired position friday in BAC short is up 1% pre-mrkt.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
wouldnt be surprised to see a 2-5 pt drop in ES after close,,,by 430 or 6pm
0357
\i still like the faz swing short xlf,,,will keep it
0349
1550 faz into the close, with other entry at .63
0345
using .58 skf stop mental now under the .68
0338
i'mn buying the trendline touch 1557 faz
0330
SKF is rite at 3min support now,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks to next supprt level,, i think it will pivot up
0329
82% algo program trader just took profit on half of skf,,,, 100% wins since friday on it
0325
its within realm of poss that 1607 FAZ trgt is hit today
0313
still see 1070 trgt
from the 75 brk,,,then a rounded top break target of 1061 on break of 1069
0310
40 cents or 1.3% on the spxu piece
0308
taking 25% of that spxu from hours ago off here for 4 points ES,,,still holding for 8 or more ESpoints on the other 75%
0306
my skf stoch at 84 now up from 78---it still needs 90 on the 10min to break the high
0305
3min xlf has a buy but i dont wanna fight the 15 and 60min sell setups,,yet
0303
xlf has a 3min bull diverg but i am trying to hold the skf thru it,,,may get stopped out of last 25%,,,conserv would exit now for reentry
0258
selling 25% more up here to lock profits in skf,,and running with the last 25% until stoped out,,,holding the faz tza vxx bacshort swings
0255
if the stoch skf faz in 10min can hit 90 then it should make new HOD,,,last stoch 78,,, oversold is "good" /bullish when its newly oversold
0253
SKF hit the .88 trgt,,,it should now go after the HOD
0252
this one took aboput 15min to kick in
0251
this is stage one of the 2nd sell program warnin,,,stage 2 still valid to follow
0250
wow skf hit .71 or one penny from the .70 stop and pivoted up to 2181,,,i'm still in the 2nd half
0244
ES 1070 trgt on break of 1074.75
0243
this sell prog could break ES support,,so watching close
0237
i've got another xlf sell prog warning,,the first warning reliably triggered tday 3 min later,,good for next 3to 41 min
0235
BAC short here is also valid at .18---it looks like its headed for 1300
0234
i might double the BAC short at 1325 depending on chart landscape,,,if it gets there,,, last 1317
0228
*if .70 is hit,,i'll exit at the mkt
0227
the skf scalp is right at my mental stop,,,may exit here .72 .70 and reenter,,,still holding faz,,last skf .74
0225
so i'll hold this faz swing over 1500ish and exit the skf if mental stops hit
0224
xlf should go lower (tho may go higher first,,,my lower targets still i see them)
0221
mental stop at 2173 near my old orig trgt on skf
0217
trying a stop at 2165 for a few cents profit for now on remaining half of skf,,,taking another 25% off here 2182 and holding last half
0213
taking additinoal 10% profit on 25% of the BAC puts,,,expecting much more but locking some in here
0211
taking 2183 profits,,,close enuf to .86,, on 25% of shares
0208
skf just hit the older .78 target but now i've raised it to .86....waiting :)
0207
xlf stage 2 selling should happen here now
0202
ok we got the 10min stoch trigger signal on skf...its at 72 now...lets see if it can repeat fridays performacne,, a pullback down first in skf (up spx) would be normal
0201
conserv traders would use 2173 trgt,,,perhaps i may need to take 25% off there idk
0158
hmm now i have skf stret target for 25-50% of shares replacing the 2178 target,,,,i'll watch the .78 to see reaction for poss higher sell instead
0154
theres the sell program,,, 3 min later,,, the stoch is waking up on 10min,,now at 51,,,,still need the 61 on stoch to get going in faz skf :)
0152
i still have the 2178 sell 25-50% of skf to lock profit
0150
xlf sell prog warning,,,mild one, nothing fabulous, at es 1079
0149
charts 3min xlf say "should go down" but really we have "chop charts" for now still
0138
its one reason why i continue to hold the faz n xkf, for now,,,also the stoch macd rsi and trendlines
0137
no guarantees but the bull asc triangl in xlf did not breakout,,,and moved sideways instead,,,this behaviour is often bearish and will cause a collapse
0123
if we get 1077.75 ES should give 2 points more down
0104
chart landscape has changed,,,now i'm watching the 10min stoch on skf faz to get over 61 vs the older 60min stoch values
1255
that XLF and FAS bull asc triangle in 3min may have trapped some bulls,,,watching this now
1250
BELOW the mkt 1078,75 short es
1246
skf has a bear desc triangle but it is marginally failing and may turn bullish instead on a reverse breakout
1244
ABOVE the mkt SKF at 2167
1233
BAC is in trouble methinkgs,,,,"warning signs" no break yet, last 1324
12222
program trader
just added more skf 2156,,,position #2 of 4
possibly buys in skf
1218
thus far faz is holding its 60min uptrend channel support,, if it holds here my revised trgt is 1649 after 1607 is broken, last 1539,,,must hold around here to be valid
1204
now theres a buy progr warning,,,mixed chop signals,,,poss break higher in ES spx
1200
hmm i have a sell program warning here,,,other factors contradict it tho so watdhing, at es 1078.50
1131
program trader in for an early entry,,,, 2168 skf, 1545 FAZ
1129
my program trader may enter the skf or faz 25% starter position at 1131,,in 2 minutes
1126
a break of 107475 es ===> 1072 trgt
1125
60min skf is at 7150 now from 68.....watching that 78 for a breakout if its hit
1121
skf is 5 cents away from filling the .78 order to sell 1/4 to half of SKF for 1%ish profit
1118
..fwiw,,,my program autotrader is close to SHORTINGT the xlf for a multi-hour trade .this algo has 82% wins if triggered...its the same algo that did 2 wins on Friday (100% friday)
1115
i'll take 25% of skf shares off for profit on skf 2178 if able from 2163/2155
1111
if 107525 i'll take off 25-50% of ES shares for 3 points profit / 2.75ish
1104
the ES 1077.25 test gave a nice 9 min warning and plenty of time to enter short,,,,
1103
oops...those stochastics are for the 60min faz skf chart,,,not the 15min...today using the 60min,,,mistyped
1059
conversely a stoch move < 58 could turn the skf faz bearish,,,last 68
1056
simple view: watch the 15min FAZ or SKF stoch to hit 78 and that should cause a run for the highs or higher,,,,this is similar to the 10min stoch signal used friday that gave a signal 1 hour in advnce
1052
ES hit 1077.25--the 1078 shorts "should work" now
1051
1077.25 below the mkt short ES could work
1045
but if it can hurdle 1081 then maybe get some upside traction
1044
ES is having trouble at the 1078 area as expected,,,its now starting to form a bear rising wedge 3min,,,15min starting to look tired
1043
over 2200 i may consider reversing long
1042
COMP last 2189,,,,i will likely short comp 2195 if able
1040
i got filled on the skf buy at 2155 it hit .53 low so far
1029
the BAC DTL resist is at about 1342ish now on 60min,,,may add there if able short,,,tho the .31 is heavy resist until broken
1028
my analysis suggests that the FAZ should make another stoch trip on 60min chart over 78 for higher FAZ before a larger pullback (to re-buy),,,, unsure if we will get it but thats what i see,,hence my "holding the faz swing" for now
1023
shorting the ES
here at 1078 via spxu
1018
on ES i have a secxondary resist trendlinline dec;lining now at 1079, last 1077
0105
limit buy more skf 2155 if able,,,prob will not get a fill, last 2166
1010
reloading on skf scalp here at .68,,,a
1006
ES is now testing impt trendline resist,,,watching,,, 1075
1001
skf which is short xlf is v strong over 2176 intraday,,,steep uptrend support line,,,,my 60min timing analysis suggests that today might present an opp to sell some FAZ to take some profits,,,and then re-enter swing at a lower price to buy back,,,will be watching
956
ES 3min has the inv HS bullish but the XLF i see a daily bear flag,,,believe the xlf will prevail in the dual
955
i know its been 3 days and the ES 1062/51 targets havent been hit but i still see them, for now
953
scalpers can lock in 10 cents profit here on skf,,,of course i'll hold longer
951
i just got a mild "sell progr warn" for xlf,,,may spill over to ES, at ES 1073.25
948
my 15 and 60min charts are saying "short rallies",, 3min says buy LOL
944
when the 5,3,3 not 14,3,3 stoch 3min skf hits <20 i will likely add another 25% to skf scalp for 50% size,,,but will chek charts when it gets there
942
theres is also a larger bear HS tho with a 10 point range LOL,,,a clunky one requiring "aritistic poetic license", 15min ES chart
939
skf,,scalp, taking 25% position new here at 2171
936
sellers "should be" waiting at 1071, 74, and 75 ES,,,if not then possible ES rally,,,still have bear bias for now under that 1080 DTL
934
if BAC can break
that 1294 then BAC could fall fas,,tho i expect bounce there first
Looking for a spot today to possibly double the BAC position before taking profits
929
for holds over 1 hour,,,ES has a clunky bear HS type thing while under 1074 that points to a target of 1061 if the 1071 breaks,, interestingly the 1061 ir right at Fridays target 1064/62
922
if BAC hits 1298--1305ish i may take profits on half of those options puts
912
ES has 2 declining resist trrendlines now at 1076 and 1080 R,,,will be watching to see if those hold. If so, Friday's lower are still the target,,, 1064/61 and 1051.... still have the lower 1051 as valid while ES < 1080
909
Today some of the swings might hit their targets to sell half of the position, will be watching....
9:08 AM
SWINGS: VXX is now at the 10% roi profit level, starting to catch up to FAZ 15% and TZA 22% (from 31.30 cost)... Gold continues its slow ascent up, the DGP is up about 2% pre-market and 4.5% roi, the newly acquired position friday in BAC short is up 1% pre-mrkt.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, August 12, 2010
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures
0412
BAC should have lots of resist at 14 its prior low,,, also if it goes under $10 then many mutual funds will need to dump it,,,not allowed < 10 dollar stocks
0406
you would be surprised at the crazy panic prices you can get sometimes afterhours LOL
0406
i'll cover some BAC at 12.98 afterhours on any panic sellers,,,prob won't fill its at 1322 now,,,,still see 12 for bac later
0404
well i still have
the swings in faz and vxx and gold...roi
14%, 10%, and 2%,,, i still see no reason to dispose of them
0352
ES has very low volume today,,,no move up on low vol? hmm
0348
there goes faz and xlf.....that 10 min stoch gave an excellent signal an hour in advance, along with the other tech indicators
0342
my VXX swing is trying to break yesterdays high :)
0341
there is risk in BAC short tho,,,,its sitting on the daily boll band,,,,the macd hist trying to tick up,,,but i'm comfy with it,,,could hit 1350/70 i'll just short more
0338
XLF has unfinished biz on the downside to me in coming days,,,not sure it has much room for upside,,,the bear flag is more clearly defined on xlf than the spx,, financials could drag the spx down
0327
shorting BAC into the close 1330
0312
selling "should have" kicked in from those warnings,,,gave only a mild sell,,,but the warning says more selling,,,tho it doesnt look that way now grrr
0257
i will only take profit on 25% of faz shares here at the 1530---i see higher
0250
now faz is pushig right against its pennant R line...should break it higher
0248
sell progr warn #2
0242
ES does have a lil bull diverg 3min,,,unknow if strong enough,, i favor the faz setup until its broken
0240
ok stoch has hit its "breakout" target now...if this holds then faz should go for the highs
0239
sell prog warn in xlf,,,medium strength
0235
stoch at 62......watching here,,,
0229
cant use just one indicator but a combo of confirming ones
0229
still watching that stoch,,,works very good under these conditions (not always but in certain conditions,,,,)
0227
faz 60min has a bull pennant
0224
stoch at 54 now but other charts suggest it still needs 60--63....it should pop up on that in faz
0222
taking some faz off here at 1522 makes sense, 25% off
0218
conversely FAZ has a poss bull dbl bot W with a 1547ish trgt
0216
in 3min chart maybe ES will try for a bull asc triangl
0214
or maybe needs 63 stoc
0214
hmm if the faz 10min stoch 14,3,3 can hit 60 it should pop it up,,,last stoch is only 45 but suggesting up for now
0200
faz target is same as the first scalp....to sell 25-50% at 15.30 if able
0158
the faz bull crouching tiger setup is at 78% confidence now
0155
my autotrader just doubled its faz position at 1508
0149
i might get that "add more swing BAC shorts" setup today,,,that i mentioned yest as not coming yet
0143
ooops...that was 1490 support not 490 LOL on faz,,,typo
0139
ES is marginally breaking over the DTL resist here
0132
program trader went in faz at 1511 or one cent over its desired 1510 ,,,last faz =1511
0130
i have an imaginary up channel in faz 1with 4.90 support and 16.10 resist...trgt 1610 resist up,,i remain bullish on faz and bearish on xlf until such support breaks
0123
program trader has a limit order in to buy faz 1510 for "all day hold" (the 81% not 52% algo)
0121
DOW has been stronger than qqqq or spx or russell...all my long hedges have been DOW components
0117
the program trader algo (82% win rate) that took profits in faz 1530 from faz 1507 is close to reentering faz again 1510
0112
this 1082 test is impt too cuz its the DTL resist test in 60min chart,,which is why i like shorting there
0111pm
if the bulls cannot get a higher close today over 1090 then they risk a decline to 1051 instead of the 1064,,,due to delay, IMHO, then bounce,,,That is, the lower trgt becomes more likely
1203
meanwhile i'm taking another 25% of faz sshares off here for 2% profit as the faz coils
1151
my work suggests a 72% confidence of the higher break ATM
1150
if the rsi hits 63 then faz should pop higher, the 14,3,3 rsi in 15min
1150
the 15min FAZ rsi is at an impt test now....it needs to push higher over 63 for upside accel (down in xlf)....last 58,,,, 58 is the downtrend line R for the rsi,,,
1145
DOES anyone see the xlf bear flag in 60min and daily???
1143
NOW....later today,,, we might get a real "tradeable" bull diverg long on ES,,,still see none yet,,,since yest i've been looking for a real one,,,today we get a lower price low and higher rsi macd low then can maybe get a tradeable bounce long
1140
yes,,,i still have the swing faz now at 14% roi.... the 2% profit trade was a scalp
1138
the 10:33 AM to sell limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit was just filled :) .... still have 75% shares
1134
buying back the puts i sold in BAC
yest,,cost 46 cents on the puts
1132
once again the xlf is leading down,, now near its low of day,,watching for reaction at this support test, i expect lower low today in xlf
1127
Watching for break of 1078 in ES to give the bear HS target 1074/73
1125
FAZ has broken above its 15min DTL resist and backtesting now
1123
i am exiting the VZ hedge here at breakeven or 2 cents profits
1055
5min later,,,ok ES broke 1079 lets see if it hits the 1074 trgt
1050
ES 1074 is the target for a bear HS break under 1079
1040
my program trader just went into faz for all day,,, 1504 or one cent over the 1503 desired entry,,, that's the algorithim with 81% success,,we'll see...
1036
poss 3min ES bear HS here
1033
limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit if filled
1030
i will short the BAC at 1350 if able, last 1325
1026
the setup on the faz 1503 has a 81% win rate (program trade if filled)
1025
limit more faz buy 1503 limit for an all day hold, if filled, last 1509
1020
i have a sell progr warn in xlf here at es 1081
1012
if ES cannot make 1089 today then good chance it will break under 1072
1011
ES either turns down here or heads to 1089, last 1084
1007
more faz here 1497
1002
this is still just a bear flag in xlf 60min daily to me,,,,holding the faz, currently faz profit roi is at 12% so no worries,,stops set to protect profit
959
ES under 1084/88 is bearish for me
958
bought back faz at 1512, shares sold 10min ago at 1% profit scalp
945
taking profit on 25% of FAZ shares (day not swing) for a quik 1% profit in 5 minutes
934
taking some faz early here for day,,,buy #1 of poss 4,,, at 1517
930
watcihng BAC reaction at 1320 and 1333 if it gets that hi
927
there is also 15min Boll Ban midpoint resist ES 1079, it just reversed lower off it,,,but if ES hurdles over 1079 then 1084/85 trgt
845
but i will remain bearish under ES 1088 until it breaks higher
844
60min ES does have a bull diverg that could push it over 1088, need to wait to see if it's strong enough,,,its a mild bull diverg not v v strong one
834
If ES stays under 1080 it would be v bearish, a bounce that is held there is bearish, over that could go for 1088 again and higher, last 1076
827
FAZ swing up 1% from yesterday, 14% roi so far,,,, BAC, Gold is about flat from yest but delining a bit from nightly hi to prob test its support from yest,minor
8:26AM
The ES did manage a marginal break over that "weak" downtrend line to make 1089, but it was unable to clear 1089 horizontal R,,, so 1089 is now an impt R area until it is broken. or more precisely 1087/89 R. A hold down at the 1084/88 area was the 9PM target last night,,it hit 1088 at 3 AM
Friday 8:25 AM
ES is likely to break the 1073 for the same targets as yest 1064/62 then 1051ish,,,,this will be a third test of the 1073 and #3 often breaks it, tho it IS on premarket/afterhours trading not 930--40pm
Thurs 11:44PM
interesting... ES has crawled up to 1084 in the last 7 hours,,,back to that 1084/86 resistnce area...will it be able to get over it during the eve lite vol session???
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
BAC should have lots of resist at 14 its prior low,,, also if it goes under $10 then many mutual funds will need to dump it,,,not allowed < 10 dollar stocks
0406
you would be surprised at the crazy panic prices you can get sometimes afterhours LOL
0406
i'll cover some BAC at 12.98 afterhours on any panic sellers,,,prob won't fill its at 1322 now,,,,still see 12 for bac later
0404
well i still have
the swings in faz and vxx and gold...roi
14%, 10%, and 2%,,, i still see no reason to dispose of them
0352
ES has very low volume today,,,no move up on low vol? hmm
0348
there goes faz and xlf.....that 10 min stoch gave an excellent signal an hour in advance, along with the other tech indicators
0342
my VXX swing is trying to break yesterdays high :)
0341
there is risk in BAC short tho,,,,its sitting on the daily boll band,,,,the macd hist trying to tick up,,,but i'm comfy with it,,,could hit 1350/70 i'll just short more
0338
XLF has unfinished biz on the downside to me in coming days,,,not sure it has much room for upside,,,the bear flag is more clearly defined on xlf than the spx,, financials could drag the spx down
0327
shorting BAC into the close 1330
0312
selling "should have" kicked in from those warnings,,,gave only a mild sell,,,but the warning says more selling,,,tho it doesnt look that way now grrr
0257
i will only take profit on 25% of faz shares here at the 1530---i see higher
0250
now faz is pushig right against its pennant R line...should break it higher
0248
sell progr warn #2
0242
ES does have a lil bull diverg 3min,,,unknow if strong enough,, i favor the faz setup until its broken
0240
ok stoch has hit its "breakout" target now...if this holds then faz should go for the highs
0239
sell prog warn in xlf,,,medium strength
0235
stoch at 62......watching here,,,
0229
cant use just one indicator but a combo of confirming ones
0229
still watching that stoch,,,works very good under these conditions (not always but in certain conditions,,,,)
0227
faz 60min has a bull pennant
0224
stoch at 54 now but other charts suggest it still needs 60--63....it should pop up on that in faz
0222
taking some faz off here at 1522 makes sense, 25% off
0218
conversely FAZ has a poss bull dbl bot W with a 1547ish trgt
0216
in 3min chart maybe ES will try for a bull asc triangl
0214
or maybe needs 63 stoc
0214
hmm if the faz 10min stoch 14,3,3 can hit 60 it should pop it up,,,last stoch is only 45 but suggesting up for now
0200
faz target is same as the first scalp....to sell 25-50% at 15.30 if able
0158
the faz bull crouching tiger setup is at 78% confidence now
0155
my autotrader just doubled its faz position at 1508
0149
i might get that "add more swing BAC shorts" setup today,,,that i mentioned yest as not coming yet
0143
ooops...that was 1490 support not 490 LOL on faz,,,typo
0139
ES is marginally breaking over the DTL resist here
0132
program trader went in faz at 1511 or one cent over its desired 1510 ,,,last faz =1511
0130
i have an imaginary up channel in faz 1with 4.90 support and 16.10 resist...trgt 1610 resist up,,i remain bullish on faz and bearish on xlf until such support breaks
0123
program trader has a limit order in to buy faz 1510 for "all day hold" (the 81% not 52% algo)
0121
DOW has been stronger than qqqq or spx or russell...all my long hedges have been DOW components
0117
the program trader algo (82% win rate) that took profits in faz 1530 from faz 1507 is close to reentering faz again 1510
0112
this 1082 test is impt too cuz its the DTL resist test in 60min chart,,which is why i like shorting there
0111pm
if the bulls cannot get a higher close today over 1090 then they risk a decline to 1051 instead of the 1064,,,due to delay, IMHO, then bounce,,,That is, the lower trgt becomes more likely
1203
meanwhile i'm taking another 25% of faz sshares off here for 2% profit as the faz coils
1151
my work suggests a 72% confidence of the higher break ATM
1150
if the rsi hits 63 then faz should pop higher, the 14,3,3 rsi in 15min
1150
the 15min FAZ rsi is at an impt test now....it needs to push higher over 63 for upside accel (down in xlf)....last 58,,,, 58 is the downtrend line R for the rsi,,,
1145
DOES anyone see the xlf bear flag in 60min and daily???
1143
NOW....later today,,, we might get a real "tradeable" bull diverg long on ES,,,still see none yet,,,since yest i've been looking for a real one,,,today we get a lower price low and higher rsi macd low then can maybe get a tradeable bounce long
1140
yes,,,i still have the swing faz now at 14% roi.... the 2% profit trade was a scalp
1138
the 10:33 AM to sell limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit was just filled :) .... still have 75% shares
1134
buying back the puts i sold in BAC
yest,,cost 46 cents on the puts
1132
once again the xlf is leading down,, now near its low of day,,watching for reaction at this support test, i expect lower low today in xlf
1127
Watching for break of 1078 in ES to give the bear HS target 1074/73
1125
FAZ has broken above its 15min DTL resist and backtesting now
1123
i am exiting the VZ hedge here at breakeven or 2 cents profits
1055
5min later,,,ok ES broke 1079 lets see if it hits the 1074 trgt
1050
ES 1074 is the target for a bear HS break under 1079
1040
my program trader just went into faz for all day,,, 1504 or one cent over the 1503 desired entry,,, that's the algorithim with 81% success,,we'll see...
1036
poss 3min ES bear HS here
1033
limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit if filled
1030
i will short the BAC at 1350 if able, last 1325
1026
the setup on the faz 1503 has a 81% win rate (program trade if filled)
1025
limit more faz buy 1503 limit for an all day hold, if filled, last 1509
1020
i have a sell progr warn in xlf here at es 1081
1012
if ES cannot make 1089 today then good chance it will break under 1072
1011
ES either turns down here or heads to 1089, last 1084
1007
more faz here 1497
1002
this is still just a bear flag in xlf 60min daily to me,,,,holding the faz, currently faz profit roi is at 12% so no worries,,stops set to protect profit
959
ES under 1084/88 is bearish for me
958
bought back faz at 1512, shares sold 10min ago at 1% profit scalp
945
taking profit on 25% of FAZ shares (day not swing) for a quik 1% profit in 5 minutes
934
taking some faz early here for day,,,buy #1 of poss 4,,, at 1517
930
watcihng BAC reaction at 1320 and 1333 if it gets that hi
927
there is also 15min Boll Ban midpoint resist ES 1079, it just reversed lower off it,,,but if ES hurdles over 1079 then 1084/85 trgt
845
but i will remain bearish under ES 1088 until it breaks higher
844
60min ES does have a bull diverg that could push it over 1088, need to wait to see if it's strong enough,,,its a mild bull diverg not v v strong one
834
If ES stays under 1080 it would be v bearish, a bounce that is held there is bearish, over that could go for 1088 again and higher, last 1076
827
FAZ swing up 1% from yesterday, 14% roi so far,,,, BAC, Gold is about flat from yest but delining a bit from nightly hi to prob test its support from yest,minor
8:26AM
The ES did manage a marginal break over that "weak" downtrend line to make 1089, but it was unable to clear 1089 horizontal R,,, so 1089 is now an impt R area until it is broken. or more precisely 1087/89 R. A hold down at the 1084/88 area was the 9PM target last night,,it hit 1088 at 3 AM
Friday 8:25 AM
ES is likely to break the 1073 for the same targets as yest 1064/62 then 1051ish,,,,this will be a third test of the 1073 and #3 often breaks it, tho it IS on premarket/afterhours trading not 930--40pm
Thurs 11:44PM
interesting... ES has crawled up to 1084 in the last 7 hours,,,back to that 1084/86 resistnce area...will it be able to get over it during the eve lite vol session???
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thurs ramblings
1135pm
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected
0506
there r no bull divergences so i
expect any bounce to be small,,, we need to make
a lower low in price with a higher low on macd/rsi
to set up a "real rally",,, that chart pattern to me means "short the bounces" not "go long"
0447
i will be watching 1088 SPX,,,,under 1088 is v bearish for me,,,,it held as resistance today when it "should have" broken higher
0441
usually but not alwyas,,,the "first" sideways move will continue in the direction of the previous trend, in this case down spx,, spx has a type of bear flag now,,,looks like ES had a bear flag, broke lower, and backtested back up, and now i expect down
0436
the qqqq put in a bear continuation pattern today candle,,, on neck,,, for a pic see
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-in-neck-on-neck--thrusting-continuation-patterns.html
0401
well that was fun but also
exhasuting day,,those T trades were a dud
0358
i'm taking 10% profit on half of BAC puts,,,holding rest, and holding the BAC swing short now up 1.63% on direct stock
0350
so it should do 3522 now not .18 if .16 breaks
0348
TBT missed my 10AM target of 35.18 by 2 cents twice today,,,,made .16 grr,,,, still holding it till the close
0339
the 1084/86 is proving stronger R than i expected,,,it is only MINOR resist on a shallow trendline,,,bullls should have been able to break this already,,,inability to do so shows bull weakness to me
0338
the es chart still says "sideways with poss up"...but tug of war between 15min 60 and bear daily
0336
swing shorts can be taken in BAC here 1318 but must be prepared that 1350 or 1370 is still bearish,,so a scale in position or a wide stop
0333
ES now back at 1084,,,has had trouble getting over 1084 86,,,but if it breaks it will trigger buys higher
0332
TBT already made new daily highs,,,spx has not
0331
TBT still doing good tho and not
stopped out yet,,,
tbt should outperform the spx if spx goes up
0326
i just took a 2 cent loss on T,,,,it should move up but just not worth it,,,still have the TBT scalp unstopped with stop in the profit zone
0325
grr this T long just is not working today,,, i'm exiting here ,,, 2nd try on T
0323
T prob wont surrvive another hit down at .60, which is why i tighted stop
0322
T should move higher but it is having trouble here,,,hard to get a good read
0321
\2657 stop on T for now
0319
raising tbt stop to 3497,,,want the extra profit $$ if stopped
0317
stop 3493 on TBT to guarantee lil profit if stopped on 2nd half,,,took first half profit already
0314
taking 25% more TBT off here for 27 cents profit
0311
above the mkt T 2684 should pop it to the high of day
0310
if 1084 breaks should get at least 2 pts higher,,,why i havent reversed short just yet,,,still have half of long
0306
i'm not reversing short yet here at es 1084,,,,hodling on a min
0305
the ABOVE the mkt long scalp in T also trriggered
0303
taking off half of upro long here at 1083 es from 107975, for a 4 point ES profit
0302
TBT buy program warning,, if it kicks in it should pivot it to its target
0300
.i intend to prob
reverse short 1083/84 from the 1078.75 long
0258
i'll close some upro long spx at es 1084 for 4.25 ES pts,,if able
0255
taking a quik 20 cents scalp [profit on 25% of tbt shares rite here,,, 3 minute trade :)
0253
the ES above the mkt trade also triggered long
0251
doing scalp TBT 3480 stop 3471 here
0249
above the mkt 2674 long T also,, last 2672 (already in T)
0246
ABOVE the mkt,,,at ES 1079.75,,i'll scalp long via upro
0240
1079.50 ES short could work,,,watching if it hits that
0238
ES has just broken the pennant to downside,,,a lil pop up backtest would be ok normal,, followed by more down
0234
now the ES is in a dangerous 3min bear pennant...see it???
0224
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected
0221
BAC puts up 12% roi,,,, BAC direct short at 1.4^% profit,,,still holding for now
0219
the 133t on TBT has a nice bull inv HS
0215
wedge trades often appear to be "against" the trend but in reality r not
0214
wedges are fun to trade because they usually trap the bear or bull on the wrong side, so entering them can be profitable
0214
now T has finally broken the 3min bull falling wedge,,,watching to see if it can go for the 2705 trgt
0211
i'm not sure if T can hit 2710 but if it does it could soar nicely,,,similar to what KO coca cola did on last months trade
0344
that failure at 1084 was key---still is...again it is weak resistance and should have broken higher
0209
the smallest move up is being magnified in the TBT
0208
the hedged longs T and TBT are doing their job moving up,,,BAC short continues down,,gold continues up,,,FAZ swing long short xlf is still valid just jumping around
0206
1070 isnt real supprt.... 1064/62 and 51 are,, i still have those trgts
0205
or, what ppl often call "consolodatino"
0204
earlier i was mentioning dojis in middle or start of move being continuatino,,,vs those after extended move as being reversal,,,,, today's FAZ doji is a good example of a continuation (up for faz) doji,
0201
the BAC puts are up about 8%....should see 40% on those
0158
i have a "short the rallies" signal
strongly now...but no new short entry,,,for the
indices,,,,individ stocks can be shorted now
0148
ES "should" pop up 2-4 ppoints
here,,still see more downside later,,,inability to
popup would be weak, to me
0141
BAC continues to deteriorate and not particapate in any spx rally :)
0137
back in T at 2673 long
0124
ES is holding that same Downtrend line we mentinoed before,,,1086ish,,,now declining R is at 1084
0119
and if tbt doesnt hold .93ish i will exit on a pop up,,,,that would be breaking the support trendiline
0118
now...T has formed a bull falling wedge 3min but no valid reentry long yet
0113
ES should still see some sideways for a lil...may [present a short opp soon
0109
TBT made 35.15 just under the revised tbt trgt 3518
0107
TBT is short the TLT treasury bonds
0107
TBT can move up even if SPX goes down
0103
there it is,m,,,tbt broke 3500
0101
tbt mini breakout expected in next 16 min
1253
the ATT trade premise was a buy at support AND break of resist,,, the resist break was stalling too much so i exited that one
1252
well glad to be out of T,,,now at 2671,,,unsure if long opp will re-present itself again,,,no new entry yet
1250
ES chart still says more sideways or up,,,no new short entry yet for holding longer than 1 hr
1245
revised tbt trgt 3518 not 3510
1244
TBT testing it high of day now,,,i expect a breakout higher
1242
3510 tbt trgt first
1237
and 1081.75 is support coil 3min
1234
1083 is current ES coil resist,,,watching to see if it breaks
1231
1089 is the target if the coil breaks higher,,,a break lower target is
1225
ES 3min is now coiling triangle
1222
if the VIX moves up,,,even better, since premiums are higher when volatility is high
1221
but they usually expire worthless so i keep the whole premium (100% roi)
1220
writing naked puts calls,,that
puts the time decay in my favor instead of against
me,,,,melikes,,,one drawback---the max ROI on it is 100%
1216
i'm also looking for a BAC entry to WRITE (not buy) some naked uncovered calls,, i will likely do that at the same time that I add more BAC shorts
1211
but...we havent even broken 1086 ES yet,,, v bearish unless it breaks over that , for me
1157
i am exiting this T at breakeven here,,,somethings not rite
1152
tbt chart suggests a minibreakout here to 3515/28ish
1149
taking some tbt for scalp only here 3488 stop .60ish
1135
1085/86 ES has mild resistance via 60min shallow downtrend line,,,watching to see if that holds and forces another lower hi,,,or if bulls can push it over
1123
AT&T is trying to break higher for the 2607 target,,,last 2690
1122
BAC could hit 1350 even 1370 and still be bearish for swings,,,,watching,,,last 1317 and unable to move up today,,,but interested in shorting anywhere 1300--1370 depending on charts for swing
1114
my charts suggest probable sideways in ES here with maybe a lil up,, then DOWN
1110
i just got filled on the 2680 fill for a scalp on T long, additional shares but T is tricky now,,watching it
1108
right now 15min says "poss bounce in BAC",,so does 60min
1107
i dont plan to add shorts in BAC until the 15 and 60min charts settle down,,, i use the weekly daily 60min 15min 10min 3min combo for swing entries
1104
still looking to double my BAC position but no swing "add more shorts" entry yet,,,, likely wont come for next hour,, the additinoal shorts could be either above or below 1325 and still be "valid"
1102
multiple dojis in the middle or start of a move---move will continue in that direction....but mult dojis after move has extended,,,move will reverse,,in general,,, there was lots of time to short
those dojis in spx
1052
when XLF turns down then BAC should plunge faster than FAZ rises
1050
BAC doesnt care about this lil pop in spx,,,bac continues down short,,,T continues up long
1048
T has a mini bulll dbl bot in 3min that project to 2705ish
1044
i will buy more T limit 2680,,,good for next 15min only,,, stop in T is 2646 for now
1041
T target is 2708,,,simple trgt of the prior HOD,,to watch reaction....may take partial profits but my work suggests good chance it will break it higher
1037
doubling the T position now,,,buy #2 of 4
1032
this time,,,BAC may not hold the .16 support (close to where i covered 25%)
1030
i beleive they will use T to hold up the dow from a crash,,,hence my hedge in T,,,charts suggest this,, other DOW options include INTC VZ DIS DD CVX but i'm not watching those ones
1025
i am hedging via LONG in T now,,,2680,,, buy #1 of poss 4
1008
last bid/ask is .49/.51
1007
taking some BAC puts here at 51 cents cost,,, entry #1 of possible 2 buys,,, sept 13 puts
1001 AM
take the esay 1%
1001
i'll take 25% of BAC shares off here to lock 1% scalp profit,,,it should bounce here
958
i'll play around with BAC puts for a scalp tho,,,,going to scalp via options on 1325/30 hit if able
956
timing on the bac is tricky for oiption play, since BAC is at or near a YEARLY low now,,, target is 12.21 in 10 days,,,but my other trgt is $8 in BAC in months not days
952
BAC high of day might have been the first target 1331, unsure,,,may want 1350 but i'm in short for now
950
doubling the BAC positino now,,,short #2 of 4
947
limit short more BAC 1349 limit, last 1332
944
i am SHORTING the BAC here at 13.27,,,starter position,,,short #1 of 4 poss,,, expect it to go hhigher but entering here at premium in order to participate
939
looking for a spot to re-short the BAC
938
agreessive traders could short the xlf when the 1min 14,3,3, stoch hits over 80 and reverses under 80
935
1080 ES is still Resist
931
since i'm here at the computer, i will not auto-sell half of faz swing at 1611 or 1603,,, i'll watch reactions,,, now i see a poss 1621 LOL
929
i'm looking at 1064/62 or 1051 ES targets,,,1051 depends on 1064 reaction,,,,as long as the DTL resist line holds on ES 60min
922
in coming months not days,,, my XLF target is near $10 (ineaxact),,, last 14.20,, or 142% decline xlf,,, faz will triple that
913
GOLD is also rocking thus far today :)
856
my es targets are 1062/51ish depending on 62 reaction....i will likely hold this faz for weeks,,,taking profits on some then re-buying, but always keeping 25% of shares for weeks unless 25% stopped
832
1080 ES held, last now 1076 on the way to lower targets and then stall/intraday bounce
820
ES has resist at 1080 3min chart,,,watching to see if it holds it down, last 1079
8:12
ES has a bear HS pattern 60min that points to 1068 on a break of 1078,, my next daily target is still 1062 for ES (under the 1068)
8:01 AM
Newly acquired yesterday's DGP gold is up 1% pre-market.
FAZ swing is up 1% also,,, 13% roi profit thus far,, FAZ daily target remains 16.07 for today with stops stalls in between, 16.48 next target after 16.07. I will likely try to take some profits at 16.13 (over 16.07) and then buy back those shares later.
8:01 AM
Good morning
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected
0506
there r no bull divergences so i
expect any bounce to be small,,, we need to make
a lower low in price with a higher low on macd/rsi
to set up a "real rally",,, that chart pattern to me means "short the bounces" not "go long"
0447
i will be watching 1088 SPX,,,,under 1088 is v bearish for me,,,,it held as resistance today when it "should have" broken higher
0441
usually but not alwyas,,,the "first" sideways move will continue in the direction of the previous trend, in this case down spx,, spx has a type of bear flag now,,,looks like ES had a bear flag, broke lower, and backtested back up, and now i expect down
0436
the qqqq put in a bear continuation pattern today candle,,, on neck,,, for a pic see
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-in-neck-on-neck--thrusting-continuation-patterns.html
0401
well that was fun but also
exhasuting day,,those T trades were a dud
0358
i'm taking 10% profit on half of BAC puts,,,holding rest, and holding the BAC swing short now up 1.63% on direct stock
0350
so it should do 3522 now not .18 if .16 breaks
0348
TBT missed my 10AM target of 35.18 by 2 cents twice today,,,,made .16 grr,,,, still holding it till the close
0339
the 1084/86 is proving stronger R than i expected,,,it is only MINOR resist on a shallow trendline,,,bullls should have been able to break this already,,,inability to do so shows bull weakness to me
0338
the es chart still says "sideways with poss up"...but tug of war between 15min 60 and bear daily
0336
swing shorts can be taken in BAC here 1318 but must be prepared that 1350 or 1370 is still bearish,,so a scale in position or a wide stop
0333
ES now back at 1084,,,has had trouble getting over 1084 86,,,but if it breaks it will trigger buys higher
0332
TBT already made new daily highs,,,spx has not
0331
TBT still doing good tho and not
stopped out yet,,,
tbt should outperform the spx if spx goes up
0326
i just took a 2 cent loss on T,,,,it should move up but just not worth it,,,still have the TBT scalp unstopped with stop in the profit zone
0325
grr this T long just is not working today,,, i'm exiting here ,,, 2nd try on T
0323
T prob wont surrvive another hit down at .60, which is why i tighted stop
0322
T should move higher but it is having trouble here,,,hard to get a good read
0321
\2657 stop on T for now
0319
raising tbt stop to 3497,,,want the extra profit $$ if stopped
0317
stop 3493 on TBT to guarantee lil profit if stopped on 2nd half,,,took first half profit already
0314
taking 25% more TBT off here for 27 cents profit
0311
above the mkt T 2684 should pop it to the high of day
0310
if 1084 breaks should get at least 2 pts higher,,,why i havent reversed short just yet,,,still have half of long
0306
i'm not reversing short yet here at es 1084,,,,hodling on a min
0305
the ABOVE the mkt long scalp in T also trriggered
0303
taking off half of upro long here at 1083 es from 107975, for a 4 point ES profit
0302
TBT buy program warning,, if it kicks in it should pivot it to its target
0300
.i intend to prob
reverse short 1083/84 from the 1078.75 long
0258
i'll close some upro long spx at es 1084 for 4.25 ES pts,,if able
0255
taking a quik 20 cents scalp [profit on 25% of tbt shares rite here,,, 3 minute trade :)
0253
the ES above the mkt trade also triggered long
0251
doing scalp TBT 3480 stop 3471 here
0249
above the mkt 2674 long T also,, last 2672 (already in T)
0246
ABOVE the mkt,,,at ES 1079.75,,i'll scalp long via upro
0240
1079.50 ES short could work,,,watching if it hits that
0238
ES has just broken the pennant to downside,,,a lil pop up backtest would be ok normal,, followed by more down
0234
now the ES is in a dangerous 3min bear pennant...see it???
0224
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected
0221
BAC puts up 12% roi,,,, BAC direct short at 1.4^% profit,,,still holding for now
0219
the 133t on TBT has a nice bull inv HS
0215
wedge trades often appear to be "against" the trend but in reality r not
0214
wedges are fun to trade because they usually trap the bear or bull on the wrong side, so entering them can be profitable
0214
now T has finally broken the 3min bull falling wedge,,,watching to see if it can go for the 2705 trgt
0211
i'm not sure if T can hit 2710 but if it does it could soar nicely,,,similar to what KO coca cola did on last months trade
0344
that failure at 1084 was key---still is...again it is weak resistance and should have broken higher
0209
the smallest move up is being magnified in the TBT
0208
the hedged longs T and TBT are doing their job moving up,,,BAC short continues down,,gold continues up,,,FAZ swing long short xlf is still valid just jumping around
0206
1070 isnt real supprt.... 1064/62 and 51 are,, i still have those trgts
0205
or, what ppl often call "consolodatino"
0204
earlier i was mentioning dojis in middle or start of move being continuatino,,,vs those after extended move as being reversal,,,,, today's FAZ doji is a good example of a continuation (up for faz) doji,
0201
the BAC puts are up about 8%....should see 40% on those
0158
i have a "short the rallies" signal
strongly now...but no new short entry,,,for the
indices,,,,individ stocks can be shorted now
0148
ES "should" pop up 2-4 ppoints
here,,still see more downside later,,,inability to
popup would be weak, to me
0141
BAC continues to deteriorate and not particapate in any spx rally :)
0137
back in T at 2673 long
0124
ES is holding that same Downtrend line we mentinoed before,,,1086ish,,,now declining R is at 1084
0119
and if tbt doesnt hold .93ish i will exit on a pop up,,,,that would be breaking the support trendiline
0118
now...T has formed a bull falling wedge 3min but no valid reentry long yet
0113
ES should still see some sideways for a lil...may [present a short opp soon
0109
TBT made 35.15 just under the revised tbt trgt 3518
0107
TBT is short the TLT treasury bonds
0107
TBT can move up even if SPX goes down
0103
there it is,m,,,tbt broke 3500
0101
tbt mini breakout expected in next 16 min
1253
the ATT trade premise was a buy at support AND break of resist,,, the resist break was stalling too much so i exited that one
1252
well glad to be out of T,,,now at 2671,,,unsure if long opp will re-present itself again,,,no new entry yet
1250
ES chart still says more sideways or up,,,no new short entry yet for holding longer than 1 hr
1245
revised tbt trgt 3518 not 3510
1244
TBT testing it high of day now,,,i expect a breakout higher
1242
3510 tbt trgt first
1237
and 1081.75 is support coil 3min
1234
1083 is current ES coil resist,,,watching to see if it breaks
1231
1089 is the target if the coil breaks higher,,,a break lower target is
1225
ES 3min is now coiling triangle
1222
if the VIX moves up,,,even better, since premiums are higher when volatility is high
1221
but they usually expire worthless so i keep the whole premium (100% roi)
1220
writing naked puts calls,,that
puts the time decay in my favor instead of against
me,,,,melikes,,,one drawback---the max ROI on it is 100%
1216
i'm also looking for a BAC entry to WRITE (not buy) some naked uncovered calls,, i will likely do that at the same time that I add more BAC shorts
1211
but...we havent even broken 1086 ES yet,,, v bearish unless it breaks over that , for me
1157
i am exiting this T at breakeven here,,,somethings not rite
1152
tbt chart suggests a minibreakout here to 3515/28ish
1149
taking some tbt for scalp only here 3488 stop .60ish
1135
1085/86 ES has mild resistance via 60min shallow downtrend line,,,watching to see if that holds and forces another lower hi,,,or if bulls can push it over
1123
AT&T is trying to break higher for the 2607 target,,,last 2690
1122
BAC could hit 1350 even 1370 and still be bearish for swings,,,,watching,,,last 1317 and unable to move up today,,,but interested in shorting anywhere 1300--1370 depending on charts for swing
1114
my charts suggest probable sideways in ES here with maybe a lil up,, then DOWN
1110
i just got filled on the 2680 fill for a scalp on T long, additional shares but T is tricky now,,watching it
1108
right now 15min says "poss bounce in BAC",,so does 60min
1107
i dont plan to add shorts in BAC until the 15 and 60min charts settle down,,, i use the weekly daily 60min 15min 10min 3min combo for swing entries
1104
still looking to double my BAC position but no swing "add more shorts" entry yet,,,, likely wont come for next hour,, the additinoal shorts could be either above or below 1325 and still be "valid"
1102
multiple dojis in the middle or start of a move---move will continue in that direction....but mult dojis after move has extended,,,move will reverse,,in general,,, there was lots of time to short
those dojis in spx
1052
when XLF turns down then BAC should plunge faster than FAZ rises
1050
BAC doesnt care about this lil pop in spx,,,bac continues down short,,,T continues up long
1048
T has a mini bulll dbl bot in 3min that project to 2705ish
1044
i will buy more T limit 2680,,,good for next 15min only,,, stop in T is 2646 for now
1041
T target is 2708,,,simple trgt of the prior HOD,,to watch reaction....may take partial profits but my work suggests good chance it will break it higher
1037
doubling the T position now,,,buy #2 of 4
1032
this time,,,BAC may not hold the .16 support (close to where i covered 25%)
1030
i beleive they will use T to hold up the dow from a crash,,,hence my hedge in T,,,charts suggest this,, other DOW options include INTC VZ DIS DD CVX but i'm not watching those ones
1025
i am hedging via LONG in T now,,,2680,,, buy #1 of poss 4
1008
last bid/ask is .49/.51
1007
taking some BAC puts here at 51 cents cost,,, entry #1 of possible 2 buys,,, sept 13 puts
1001 AM
take the esay 1%
1001
i'll take 25% of BAC shares off here to lock 1% scalp profit,,,it should bounce here
958
i'll play around with BAC puts for a scalp tho,,,,going to scalp via options on 1325/30 hit if able
956
timing on the bac is tricky for oiption play, since BAC is at or near a YEARLY low now,,, target is 12.21 in 10 days,,,but my other trgt is $8 in BAC in months not days
952
BAC high of day might have been the first target 1331, unsure,,,may want 1350 but i'm in short for now
950
doubling the BAC positino now,,,short #2 of 4
947
limit short more BAC 1349 limit, last 1332
944
i am SHORTING the BAC here at 13.27,,,starter position,,,short #1 of 4 poss,,, expect it to go hhigher but entering here at premium in order to participate
939
looking for a spot to re-short the BAC
938
agreessive traders could short the xlf when the 1min 14,3,3, stoch hits over 80 and reverses under 80
935
1080 ES is still Resist
931
since i'm here at the computer, i will not auto-sell half of faz swing at 1611 or 1603,,, i'll watch reactions,,, now i see a poss 1621 LOL
929
i'm looking at 1064/62 or 1051 ES targets,,,1051 depends on 1064 reaction,,,,as long as the DTL resist line holds on ES 60min
922
in coming months not days,,, my XLF target is near $10 (ineaxact),,, last 14.20,, or 142% decline xlf,,, faz will triple that
913
GOLD is also rocking thus far today :)
856
my es targets are 1062/51ish depending on 62 reaction....i will likely hold this faz for weeks,,,taking profits on some then re-buying, but always keeping 25% of shares for weeks unless 25% stopped
832
1080 ES held, last now 1076 on the way to lower targets and then stall/intraday bounce
820
ES has resist at 1080 3min chart,,,watching to see if it holds it down, last 1079
8:12
ES has a bear HS pattern 60min that points to 1068 on a break of 1078,, my next daily target is still 1062 for ES (under the 1068)
8:01 AM
Newly acquired yesterday's DGP gold is up 1% pre-market.
FAZ swing is up 1% also,,, 13% roi profit thus far,, FAZ daily target remains 16.07 for today with stops stalls in between, 16.48 next target after 16.07. I will likely try to take some profits at 16.13 (over 16.07) and then buy back those shares later.
8:01 AM
Good morning
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Saturday, July 24, 2010
On vacation for a week, so only sporadic stock updates
I'm On vacation for a week, so only sporadic stock updates.
Also, I'm going to be posting here at blogspot more frequently, since twitter is often "overloaded".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Also, I'm going to be posting here at blogspot more frequently, since twitter is often "overloaded".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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