Wednesday, August 18, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0402
if tza goes crazy AH i'll sell at 3770 a piece of it and try to buy bak,,,prob will not get a fill,, 3770 was my daily (unmet) target,, made 3756 hi

0400pm
tza hit 3727 or one penny over the .26 trgt b4 close

0350
there,,finally filled,,, locked in 1.17% on that piece

0349
missed by .20 order by 2 cents....hit .18 now .11,,,,i'm sticking with .20 it should go to .26

0343
if it were earlier in day my autotrader would do tza and faz here,,,but too close to end of day so it wont,,but that setup is there,, only unsatisfied conditino is "time less than 3:40 PM"

0337
li9mit sell part of tza scalp at 3720 if able, from 3677 cost

0334
that inv bull HS i mentinoed b4 measured to 1078 trgt,,,and ES hit it,,,watching to see if if goes over it or pulls bak

0330
bulls need to repair the 15min shoot star fast else bad for bulls

0328
selling half of tza here at cost just to reduce risk,,, avg in on the extra shares served its purpose

0319
faz swing shares took all off except last 1/4 of shares,,,, 17% profitr,,,look to reload later

0308
i'm going to be forced to take some profits even on the swing shorts today,,but will still hold some,,,there are some divergences that say "bounce",,, yet others say "more down,,this is just the start",,so i'll remain partially exposed and partial profit taknig

0306
10min and 15min showing signs of turning bearish again intraday....

0301
ES bear HS on daily chart,,, i know many see it,,, several days now on the right shoulder....yes one can also see an inv HS bullish LOL,,, the bear HS is bigger tho

0254
they r trying v hard on ES dbl bot / bull inv HS on 3min,,but using a lot of energy on 15min to do so,,,v interesting,,,tricky here intraday,,,,still def have swing short setups

0251
if the 10min repairs itself i'd feel more comfy short scalp,,,still have the tza tho

0246
tza could still hit the 3771 trgt today, limit order set to sell there if able (most scalp shares not all)

0244
watching for the infamous 3min ES bull inv HS that they like :),,, prepared to cover short scalps on trigger of it

0240
i still have no buy in spx intraday,,rather have a "short the rally"

0230
more tza 3705,,,,still have 3703 tza


too,,,just buying bak what was sold b4
 
0215
thinking of buying bak tza,,,not yet

0207
taking 25% of shares off here at .50 for 1% profit on the scalp,,,3748 sold,,,paid 3703,,, > 1% prof

0204
well tza hit the .27 and .37 followed as expected,,,,

0203
might take profits on 25% of those BAC puts today if it breaks, puts at 16% profit here but that should pop higher if bac breaks

200
meanwhile faz leads again,,,at its high of day test now,,,about to make higher hig

159
got the .27 on tza....lets see if the dynamic kicks in

158
under 1066 we have 1062 support but then not mycg support b4 1051

154pm
i'd like to see the tza and faz bull flags convert to bear rising wedges in coming hours,,then they will pull back after the wedge move up completes,, i intend to ride the wedge up if this happens,,via swing ride

153
tza has marginally broken above its 3min coil....still needs the .27 to trigger the coil bull dynamic

150
tza need to stay over 3686 and pref 3705....a violatino under 3705 i might get out of the scalp (keeping swing)

148
if tza gets over .27 then it should test to .38, and the .38 "should" breka higher (per coil dynamics)

142
ah the xlf is also pushing on its lower DAILY boll band,,its bearishly strething it vs the less bearish "quik pop below"

140
we r still in the chop whipsaw setup here to me

137
3993 (not today) target in the newly defined tza daily up channel,,,

134
ES sell program warning at 1072

134
we need the tza 10min stoch to turn bak up n hit 70,,,,flat now at 60

133
VIX charts are confirming daily bearishness,,,,

132
the XLF has ALREADY broken its lower BB on 3min..bearish warning

131
one min later, we got the warning there...lets see

130
yea...watching for 1073 break on es would be a warning of bear flag break lower

128
xlf is showing weaker than russel or spx now,,,xlf could drag em down yet again

123
a break of ES 1072 would break the bear flag lower,,,,

109pm
ES 15min,,,bear flag

1258
tza just hit the 3737 target and backed off,,,still holding

1255
taking 25% of shares off tza here to lock 0.75% profit

1255
hmm the 15min tza has a bullish continuation candle pattern if it holds this 15min low...the 5 methods modified

1251
3737 first scalp trgt tza

1245
if the 2min stoch hits 40 on tza it should pop up nicely,,,last 25,,,,inability to do so it will likely fall more,,,14,3,3 stoch 2min

1244
mini sell prog warn in ES at 1073,,

1240
last 3696 tza but premise to trade still valid for me

1237
nervous would exit now breakeven,,,i'm willing to hold awhile and add more lower tza if needed, for now i still like it

1235
TZA is now back at .03,,,,staying in for now

1229
3703 was hit,,, filled :D

1228
i am doing tza lim 3703 buy if filled here

1222
agressive could actually prepare for a scalp short here,,,soon,,,pattern developing not confirmed,,short then long, es 1073

1219
ES has R here at 1072 trendline,,,see if the new trednline holds

1216
grr i missed a "add more BAC shorts 1317 by one cent,,,no fill...hit 1316

1213
i'll use the high vol SPY --for nice fills on scalp and just buy 3x # of shares to mimic/correlate to upro for 3x,,no long scalp yet

1206
well the 3min stoch


did its thing with under 20 and moving over

mentinoed b4,,,but other things are

iffy,,,i'd wait for the 1minute chart to

pullbak b4 long scalp,,,sso resis around 3501 trendline R

1200
ES down channel now officially replaces the bull wedge,,,until 1074 ES breaks higher, in 3min

1155
tza 3770 trgt

1153
if es hits 1066 then faz should hit the 1607 trgt,,, i think lol,, last 1592

1150
TZA is pushing outside and above its upper BOLL band,,,which usually means higher tza,,,BUT a short signal is given upon a close under the upper bak inside,,, so i may take profits on another 25% and hold the other 25% swing with stop below 34,,,and then try to buy back the 25% sold when it gets bak inside the BB and the "short tza" setup fades

1149
ok the BAC has hit the 1302 support,,,a bounce would be normal but this may just crak with no bounce over 1311

1146
see this ES bull fall wedge is converting to a down channel instead as discussed b4,,,wedges r fun but tricky to trade

1140
BAC is very near its prior 1302 low a few days ago,,,1305 last,,,will prob get lil bounce but not covering any here,,could break below

1139
1066 ES trgt still

1134
3min stoch needs to fall below 20 again and the base b4 i consider long scalp

1131
i wont get a "scalp long" setup for at least 30min,,,maybe longer (hours) if at all,,, being patient is often hard esp if one is tick watching,,,someteims good to just walk away if tempted to enter too early

1129
ES did break higher marginally from its 3min wedge,,,but i'm waiting to see if such wedge converts to down channel

1127
my "hold short all day" signal is still in effect, currently says "may get some upside or sideways but hold on and no new longs yet" at ES 1075

1108
XLF 60min hist just crossed under 0 which some use as a swing short signal,,,i dont use it because it usually comes late and results in chop first,,,there is USUALLY time to get in short, or add shorts to previous positions after some chopping around,,,but it may be enough  to propel FAZ upward to the 1607 target during such whipsaw

1104
i might try upro long scalp unsure,,,on 1072 ES

1051
MID TERM TARGET
my SPX target is 977,,,,via non ewave analysis,,, math analysis suggests 977 which just so happens to land right near 977.64 prior support at Aug 17. That is, a few diff independent analysis suggests 977, the 977 not chose just cuz it was Aug support, then 816 is my next target,,,,then see what happens if we get there,, i didn't make or "force" the analysis to hit 977 it just landed there

1046
FAZ has hit its 1570 exactly trgt on the touch of 1570 ,, stil have that 1607 target from a week ago

1042
i got a swing signal at tza 3130, last tza 3638, up 16% so far,,,,faz up 16% roi too
 
1038
re: options,,,if they bring BAC under 12.88 it would really mess up some optinos holders,,,so maybe it makes it down there,,,but not a tradeable strategy,,,in any event 12 target

1032
 theres a type of morn star daily bullish setup (creative) on tza

1028
looking for entry to buy back tza but requires patience for right entry,,,i'll only add on a 15min chart 3min combo,, still have half of tza shares, and still in faz swing

1011
i will try to buy back,,,will hold at least 25% tza for 3700 3800 4500 6000 targets

1009
3594 stop on 25% of tza,,,,and lower stop on other 25% (have 50% left,,,took profits at 4% and 7% thus far)

1005
forced again to take some tza profits here at 7% roi, per rules,,,will try to buy later bak

1002
es should stall here and i'll likely take a lil off...watching,,,if no stall 1078 then weak

1001
LOL the 1082 broke while typing :)

1000
charts do suggest a slower move down tho if we get it....around here there are multiple mini supports

959
right now for me,,,v good chance to break 1082 es....my chart say "stay short all day" right now (may change in 15 or 30min)

957
i'm taking 25% of skf off here to lock profits 2147,,per rule on trgt achivied i need to take some off

953
xklf is running into support here now,,,watching as faz skf at R,,,still see lower xlf n higher faz, but this is a decent spot to take partial profits

935
yea looking for lower trgts today,,,3711 is my "real" first swing trgt but will buy sell buy in between if able

932
tza trgt 3565 then 3593 on break of 3512, then 3711 with stalls in between tza

913
SHORTIE i think we can bounce once more to marginally higher hi 1103ish and still get the p3,,tho bias is down for now for the lower targets

834
if  ES 1082 breaks then 1074 trgt

Thurs 8:28 AAM
bought bak tza i sold yest at 3528 for  3430, still have other tza shares at lower levels

Wedn 7:52 PM
not sure if ES will bounce to 1090/92 but if it does then still a bear HS 60min pattern will be formed,,,needs to get higher to avoid bearishness

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, August 17, 2010

Wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

0415
i am cancelling the skf sell 2143 AH and raising the price to 2163 for now

0407
will sell some tza n try to buy back later ,,,3530 for

0405
sold



some tza 34.99 AH...other 25%,,,still


have half,, wow shouldve waited made 3515 lol,, but 3.8% profit in one day is fine too

0400
grr missed 2123 by 3 cents,,,forced to sell at close 2120 skf,,,holding tza faz skf swing

0352
3470 limit sell more tza if able scalp

0343
limit sell some skf 2124 last 2117/.... 2117 was a trgt

0339
taking 25% off more tza here at same target for 2.09% scalp profit,,,still have half left

0328
3:34 PM trgt to break 1093 if velocity stays constant

0326
tza back at the 2% profit here now if missed b4,,,at 3455,,,i'm holding mine for higher trgt

0325
skf trgt 2124,,2133

0323
tza hit 3454 or one penny over the 3453,,,sold some tza at 3543 trgt,,,still have 75%

0322
ES trgts: 1093,90,88 with stall each one

0315
skf hit 2114 trgt exactly and stalled,,,still see it going up moer

0312
there goes TZA,,,taking 25% of sharess off for 1.5% profit (scalp not swing tza)

0312
skf need 2114 to get going...its gone up to 2107 so far

0310
ahh..now the skf stoch has hit its target...lets see how much upside it gives this time....

0309
theres the below the mkt short ES 109450 :D :P ,,, the ES broke 1095 within the 8 minutes

0307
ES 1095 is still breakable....watching,,target in 8 minutes

0302
skf faz stoch only 32,,,need the > 42,, no momentum yet

0259
hmm minor buy progr warning now ES,,but contractictory reports

0258
agressive could short here on expectation of 1095 es break next try,,,or below the mkt 109450

0255
one could say theres a bear rising wedge on ES 15min,,the wedge has broken lower BUT it could climb back inside where there is more upside before the apex,,not a decisive break

0253
yea....ES close to testing 1095 not there just yet,,,watching if it breaks it if it does test it

0246
charts r suggsting a 1095 break in es lower on next test

0236
my declining resis on SKF is now at 2104 not 2108,,,suggesting a break over 2104 would break the downchannel

0233
swing trader algo just flashed another BUY TZA

0231
my work suggests sellers are above mkt at 1099 and BELOW mkt at 1090 ES

0221
last stoc at 25,, i dont assume succes on the cross over 20, rather i want to see the 42 stoch

0220
new stoch breakout target revised for SKF is 10min stoch over 42,,,should give upside,,,failure to do so will give sideways or more down

0218
tza target 3453 and 3554 and 3600/3625 trgts,,last 3405

0211
my software just threw a sell program warning at ES 1096

0211
BAC just broke its lower BB on the 3min

0210
suggesting the .09 should break higher,

0209
skf has resist at 2109 but a 2103 would still trigger a buy on it

0208
BAC lim to add more shorts 1348 was filled,,it hit 1349 ,,,now backed down to 1343

0206
skf 2109 will hit resist and prob stall there, last 2096

0203
they r trying to push XLF thru its resist,,,hasnt triggered buying yet depsite the minor viloation over yest high,,right now its bearish for xlf unless it breaks with force

0157
ES 3min has a bull pennant so watching to see if it will break higher or not,,,its right at resist tho

0140
more BAC short ...trade 2 of poss 4,,, 1348 near the 1350 trgt,,, will add more 1370,,or maybe add more lower, unknown

0125
another 25% may be added at 2:03 PM

0125
my program autotrader 81% success is entering tza swing here,,,25% size position 33.90

0117
bought bak tza i got stopped out on b4,,,here at 3380

0111
XLF just hit daily R...adding shorts in xlf via skf 20.93, and 1467 faz

1237
if skf takes out .31 it should go for HOD and higher

1226
adding some skf here at 2121

1223
well clearly i sold my gold too early and could have had better profits than the 4% i took by selling yest,,,,grr,,,gold just hit the target i had for it yest (sold b4 trgt hit)

1222
still no fill on the extra SKF....waiting at 2114 last 2120,, it may go to 2110 or below, so 25-50% size shares

1217
ES hit 1092 or 1 point from the 1093 R target b4 at 11:15 AM,,,i'll short on a retest up near that area

1204
i'll do skf 2114 lim if filled, last 2120

1138
wow tza missed my stop by 3 cents...still in tza,,i'll allow .37 not .43,,,will do manually maybe since so cloase,,, last 3470

1120
last trade--i'm trading the backtest down in ES to the broken coil...watching to see if it bounce up again or breaks even lower

1117
1497 faz scalp again

1115
the ES broke higher from the small coil...now ES also has a downchannel in 60min with R at 1093 now,,,watching to see if that breaks higher out of channel or holds down

1056
i'm also using skf RSI on 15min chart for an earlier signal in add to 60min: need 15min rsi over 64

1051
but charts are not setup to use the 10/15min stoch,,,needing to use the 60min rsi for now, for same trigger

1050
SKF simple view: if the rsi on 60min can get over 63 then it should pop higher nicely, last only 52,,,watching that for now,,,similar to the 10min stoch trigger from last several days (100% accurate signal thus far last 8 days) when triggered,,,that would be bullish skf, bearish skf, bear spx

1040
ES under 1088 is bearish, within a bear pennant 3min, intraday

1034
XLF has similar pattern on 10min chart

1032
*15min chart

1032
ES has a bearish modified 5 methods pattern 60min with 4 candles not 5,,,,but will need confirmation with a break under the LOD

1028
TZA trgts to be set after done watching ES here,,,wanna see what ES wants to do

1025
taking 9 cents profit here on half of faz scalp 1517

1022
this is the "pullback" i mentioned before in ES<,,we should know which way it deceides to go soon

1020
i have an agressive short entry setup scalp faz long 1508

1016
wow this tza is jumpin all around,,,stop on swing is set at 3443 to lock a little profit if stopped,,,took half off already for 4% profit,,,the other swing tza is up 12% (longer term swing from 3100ish)

0101
this pattern is ES>..whether bullish or bearish outcome,,,usually this will pull back from 1089 some,,,then decide to go up or down after the pullback

1004
xlf sell progr warn at es 108650, stage one sell would be mild if triggered,,then stage 2 bigger, if triggered

947
ES should stall here bounce,,,,if not shows weakness at 1084

945
FAZ trgt 1531 1555 1570 1607 1749 1810 1900 with 1570 and 1607 the primary initial ones

943
BAC is showing some strength this morn vs the spx but that just presents poss opp to add shorts,,,no additinos yet,, BAC currently at my entry price 1332 but 1340 1350 1370 all possible before declines

934
i'll take 25% of TZA off here to lock a 3% profit from buy yesterday,tho i see much higher,,,thats the tza from 34.23 not the 31.00 cost,, 31.00 tza is longer term swing

933
also interested in silver,,well gold has gapped down,,,glad i took the profits yest

922 AM Tues
i'm looking at BAC here now, for mid term holds 5-20 days,,still a v good stock to short,,,trying to pick spots,, but there are a variety of patterns to observe in it before adding shorts,, there's a bull fall wedge but thats within a downchannel,,,so seeing if it wants to break wedge higher to go for channel resist,,,or whether it just deteriorates inside the wedge slower
 
Tues eve 10:21 pm
I took profits on swing gold today but silver has a diff chart,,,looking at possible silver entry via 60.10 if able (last 60.97)... 59.30 is another buy area possibility,,, will be watching charts for appropriate entries

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, August 16, 2010

tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

0412
ES still under pressure here now

0411
xlf up only 0.78% today vs russel up 1.6%

0404
tza is up now 1.5% from earlier buy today,,,,gold is gone for now for 5%ish profit only,,, faz ROI is now 12% down from 17% yest,, newly acquired skf is red now down 0.5% one half percent

0358
2137 limit sell if able

0355
1091 trgt just hit :D

0347
1409 xlf trgt last 1415

0342
2136 skf trgt revised from 2140 on that break

0341
ES 10911 then 1088 trgts still valid

0339
ES just hit my 1093.,50 trgt,,,

0332
tza is a little above cost now,,newly acquired TZA today

0320
sell progr warnin in xlf 1415,,es 1094

0317
if skf gets over 2124 it could quickly see 2140, xlf is closer to


breaking than spx,,if so xlf can pull down spx
 
 
0312
usually only get that setup once a day

0311
the 10min stoch gave a nice warning for a 20 cent pop up in skf...thats 100% wins on that signal,,,5 for 5 in last few days

0307
tza has the same signal setup

0306
no guarantees but i have an "add faz swing" here with 82% win rate,,,as long as it holds over todays low it should be fine

0304
likely hold, pop up some, then break lower

0304
xlf is at support now,,,watching for hold or break

300pm
ES breakdown setup,,,ES 10911 then 1088 trgts

0248
the stoch trigger will usually give a 10min--60min warning of upside in advance,,,watching to see if this one works,,,got the trigger but its right at R

0243
hmm skf is flirting with that 49 stoch target here also,,,,watching to see if that will push the xlf down n skf up

0227
  the vxx faz n tza gave a much higher % return than gold,,,but need to diversify

0221
i have a sell prog warn in xlf here....lets see if it does anythning,,,milkd one for now

0219
the skf faz stoch


10min at 38 now...,,,still needs the 47 to pop higher

0206
exiting gold for now,,,dgp out 3236,,,looks like time to exit, take profit from 3106, and re-enter,,,also added shares


and breakeven on the additional shares
 
 
158
skf is now trying to break out of this downchannel wedge thing its in...minor breka higher

152
adding tza 3416, avg 3416+3472/2=3444 avg

150
macd sig should get over 0 on next move up...touched near 0 on last,,,thats the sig line not histogram,,,(tho hist will also go over 0)

149
xlf 3min macd sig line bear diverg...3x diverg should be enough for a pullbakc on xlf

146
doing tbt 3292 here

144
i still have no "add more swing shorts" setup,,,maybe in next 1-2 hrs but not likely b4 today close

140
shorting ES 1098 via spxu

117pm
this is wave 5 up in xlf intraday

1258
heres the gold breakout forming...still forming but looks like a new HOD coming

1246
sounds crazy but i almost have an "add more shorts" swing setup....but it will NOT come for at least 1 more hour,,,its in develop stage now

1236
the skf stoch 10min needs to get over 47 to get skf going up,,bearish until then,,,watching for that,,,charts suggest that its going to try for over 47,,,last 29

1232
theres a poss setup for a break higher in gold GLD DGP,,last dgp 3237

1216
2123 is trgt for skf test up here,,,its still bearish until 2123 breaks higher, last 2114

1210
1089 target,,,if it kicks in

1209
LOL an actuall sell program warning? lets see if it does anything,, at ES 1095

1124
xlf has a bear diverg in 3min setting up that should give a pullback

1122
taking 2115 skf ...close enough

1119
limit more skf 2112 if filled last 2116



1117preparing to buy pos #3 in skf

1111
spx at or near 200 MA now

1110
ES is close to trendline resist 1093ish

1058
adding skf here 3131

1053
theres the expected bounce on xlf,,,now watching to see if it turns down or not

1048
ES is moving near its HOD but xlf not confirming this up

1035
oops coiling not soiling LOL

1034
ES is now soiling,,,could go up or down,,still biased down for now

1032
BAC is a mess :) down at 1316 from its stab at 1335ish,,,good for the shorts

1032
xlf "should have" bounced here or it should...this is weak bearish if not,,thus far no bounce

1031
a 15min VIX close over 2501 should send the spx down ,,,, last 2480

1028
SKF FAZ just filled the gap...watching for it to push thru it now,,,a turn down here first would be normal

1024
my auto program trader just entered skf,,, limit filled 21.45 ,,barely got a fill on the 2145 it hit 2144

1022
this is buy #1 of 4 if filled,,,25% early entry

1022
my autotrader has a limit skf 21.45 long if able and filled, last 2151,,,to hold for hours not minutes,,,82% win rate

1019
if ES gets a 10 or 15min close under 1082 that would be v bearsih,,,holding thus far but still biased down for now

1013
i have a 10min chart "xlf weaker" warning but no new shorts yet,,,holding the faz swing still,, the warning often results in sideways for a little while before going lower


1012
if XLF and ES doesnt move up from here but stays here then my algo program trader will likely enter short SPX and short XLF,,but not for at least 10minutes maybe an hour

1008
3260 next dgp trgt, last 3240

1006
gold DGP has marginally violated yest hi to upside,,,watching for more movement up...last 2 days have been no gold movement during the day, all increases on the 4% up have come via gaps up

959
thus far i see weakness in XLF that will prevent any big ramp today,,,will see tho,,, generally on a "ramp higher" day strength will be seen in the first 30 min not weakness

954
if ES or BAC starts to surge i'll exit and reeval

953
i took some partial profits in BAC before in both stock and options,,,remaining half was red this morn but now at breakeven in BAC.... remaining options r still red of course,, options i may need


to take a loss but the stock should be

profitable,,,no decay

948
in gold via dgp 32.33 for todays shares,,,,31.50ish avg cost,,,,stop on gold tite, if it goes under yest low i'll take lil loss not much (loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain),,,(loss on todays new shares,,,overall would be a small gain about 1.5%)

933
GOLD swing is up 4% roi thus far,,,looking to add more gold here via dgp,,watching for entry

5:45 AM Tues
ES above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. I remain bearish from a swing perspective as long as ES is under 1089 and 1110. If 1089 breaks higher I will likely lock some profits on previously entered swing shorts and look to re-enter, while holding others for the 1108 test,,,but it depends on what charts look like.

5:43 AM Tues
The ES climbed up to 1084.75, just over the 1084 target. ES could go for the 1089 target (or higher if that breaks), but the charts now suggest a pullback. As long as the pullback stays above 1078 I would view the ES as bullish, and bearish < 1078. Charts suggest that if 1081 breaks then 1078 gets tested else a pivot back up of 1078 to retest the 1085 and then 1089.

1103pm monday
v interesting futures action tonight. The 1077  broke and did hit the 1073 target, and ES has since pivoted up to 1080. Targets would be 1082,84,89....a break of 1082 would be significant and a break over 1089 could turn the ES v bullish. This will be fun to watch,,,perhaps there will be some volatility during 930am--4pm tomorrow.

730 PM
there it is..the 1077 has broken as expected, on "high vol" for afterhours trading


6:41 PM Monday
i have a short ES
setup here 1078/77 for a multihour hold.  1076.75 has been support the last 3 hours and charts r suggesting it will break lower 1073,70,68,66 targets with 1073 and 1066 the primary ones.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

0359
wouldnt be surprised to see a 2-5 pt drop in ES after close,,,by 430 or 6pm

0357
\i still like the faz swing short xlf,,,will keep it

0349
1550 faz into the close, with other entry at .63

0345
using .58 skf stop mental now under the .68

0338
i'mn buying the trendline touch 1557 faz

0330
SKF is rite at 3min support now,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks to next supprt level,, i think it will pivot up

0329
82% algo program trader just took profit on half of skf,,,, 100% wins since friday on it

0325
its within realm of poss that 1607 FAZ trgt is hit today

0313
still see 1070 trgt


from the 75 brk,,,then a rounded top break target of 1061 on break of 1069

0310
40 cents or 1.3% on the spxu piece

0308
taking 25% of that spxu from hours ago off here for 4 points ES,,,still holding for 8 or more ESpoints on the other 75%

0306
my skf stoch at 84 now up from 78---it still needs 90 on the 10min to break the high

0305
3min xlf has a buy but i dont wanna fight the 15 and 60min sell setups,,yet

0303
xlf has a 3min bull diverg but i am trying to hold the skf thru it,,,may get stopped out of last 25%,,,conserv would exit now for reentry

0258
selling 25% more up here to lock profits in skf,,and running with the last 25% until stoped out,,,holding the faz tza vxx bacshort swings

0255
if the stoch skf faz in 10min can hit 90 then it should make new HOD,,,last stoch 78,,, oversold is "good" /bullish when its newly oversold

0253
SKF hit the .88 trgt,,,it should now go after the HOD

0252
this one took aboput 15min to kick in

0251
this is stage one of the 2nd sell program warnin,,,stage 2 still valid to follow

0250
wow skf hit .71 or one penny from the .70 stop and pivoted up to 2181,,,i'm still in the 2nd half

0244
ES 1070 trgt on break of 1074.75

0243
this sell prog could break ES support,,so watching close

0237
i've got another xlf sell prog warning,,the first warning reliably triggered tday 3 min later,,good for next 3to 41 min

0235
BAC short here is also valid at .18---it looks like its headed for 1300

0234
i might double the BAC short at 1325 depending on chart landscape,,,if it gets there,,, last 1317

0228
*if .70 is hit,,i'll exit at the mkt

0227
the skf scalp is right at my mental stop,,,may exit here .72 .70 and reenter,,,still holding faz,,last skf .74

0225
so i'll hold this faz swing over 1500ish and exit the skf if mental stops hit

0224
xlf should go lower (tho may go higher first,,,my lower targets still i see them)

0221
mental stop at 2173 near my old orig trgt on skf

0217
trying a stop at 2165 for a few cents profit for now on remaining half of skf,,,taking another 25% off here 2182 and holding last half

0213
taking additinoal 10% profit on 25% of the BAC puts,,,expecting much more but locking some in here

0211
taking 2183 profits,,,close enuf to .86,, on 25% of shares

0208
skf just hit the older .78 target but now i've raised it to .86....waiting :)

0207
xlf stage 2 selling should happen here now

0202
ok we got the 10min stoch trigger signal on skf...its at 72 now...lets see if it can repeat fridays performacne,, a pullback down first in skf (up spx) would be normal

0201
conserv traders would use 2173 trgt,,,perhaps i may need to take 25% off there idk

0158
hmm now i have skf stret target for 25-50% of shares replacing the 2178 target,,,,i'll watch the .78 to see reaction for poss higher sell instead

0154
theres the sell program,,, 3 min later,,, the stoch is waking up on 10min,,now at 51,,,,still need the 61 on stoch to get going in faz skf :)

0152
i still have the 2178 sell 25-50% of skf to lock profit

0150
xlf sell prog warning,,,mild one, nothing fabulous, at es 1079

0149
charts 3min xlf say "should go down" but really we have "chop charts" for now still

0138
its one reason why i continue to hold the faz n xkf, for now,,,also the stoch macd rsi and trendlines

0137
no guarantees but the bull asc triangl in xlf did not breakout,,,and moved sideways instead,,,this behaviour is often bearish and will cause a collapse

0123
if we get 1077.75 ES should give 2 points more down

0104
chart landscape has changed,,,now i'm watching the 10min stoch on skf faz to get over 61 vs the older 60min stoch values

1255
that XLF and FAS bull asc triangle in 3min may have trapped some bulls,,,watching this now

1250
BELOW the mkt 1078,75 short es

1246
skf has a bear desc triangle but it is marginally failing and may turn bullish instead on a reverse breakout

1244
ABOVE the mkt SKF at 2167

1233
BAC is in trouble methinkgs,,,,"warning signs" no break yet, last 1324

12222
program trader



just added more skf 2156,,,position #2 of 4



possibly buys in skf
 
1218
thus far faz is holding its 60min uptrend channel support,, if it holds here my revised trgt is 1649 after 1607 is broken, last 1539,,,must hold around here to be valid

1204
now theres a buy progr warning,,,mixed chop signals,,,poss break higher in ES spx

1200
hmm i have a sell program warning here,,,other factors contradict it tho so watdhing, at es 1078.50

1131
program trader in for an early entry,,,, 2168 skf, 1545 FAZ

1129
my program trader may enter the skf or faz 25% starter position at 1131,,in 2 minutes



1126
a break of 107475 es ===> 1072 trgt

1125
60min skf is at 7150 now from 68.....watching that 78 for a breakout if its hit

1121
skf is 5 cents away from filling the .78 order to sell 1/4 to half of SKF for 1%ish profit

1118
..fwiw,,,my program autotrader is close to SHORTINGT the xlf for a multi-hour trade .this algo has 82% wins if triggered...its the same algo that did 2 wins on Friday (100% friday)

1115
i'll take 25% of skf shares off for profit on skf 2178 if able from 2163/2155

1111
if 107525 i'll take off 25-50% of ES shares for 3 points profit / 2.75ish

1104
the ES 1077.25 test gave a nice 9 min warning and plenty of time to enter short,,,,

1103
oops...those stochastics are for the 60min faz skf chart,,,not the 15min...today using the 60min,,,mistyped

1059
conversely a stoch move < 58 could turn the skf faz bearish,,,last 68

1056
simple view: watch the 15min FAZ or SKF stoch to hit 78 and that should cause a run for the highs or higher,,,,this is similar to the 10min stoch signal used friday that gave a signal 1 hour in advnce

1052
ES hit 1077.25--the 1078 shorts "should work" now

1051
1077.25 below the mkt short ES could work

1045
but if it can hurdle 1081 then maybe get some upside traction

1044
ES is having trouble at the 1078 area as expected,,,its now starting to form a bear rising wedge 3min,,,15min starting to look tired

1043
over 2200 i may consider reversing long

1042
COMP last 2189,,,,i will likely short comp 2195 if able

1040
i got filled on the skf buy at 2155 it hit .53 low so far

1029
the BAC DTL resist is at about 1342ish now on 60min,,,may add there if able short,,,tho the .31 is heavy resist until broken

1028
my analysis suggests that the FAZ should make another stoch trip on 60min chart over 78 for higher FAZ before a larger pullback (to re-buy),,,, unsure if we will get it but thats what i see,,hence my "holding the faz swing" for now

1023
shorting the ES




here at 1078 via spxu
 
1018
on ES i have a secxondary resist trendlinline dec;lining now at 1079, last 1077

0105
limit buy more skf 2155 if able,,,prob will not get a fill, last 2166

1010
reloading on skf scalp here at .68,,,a

1006
ES is now testing impt trendline resist,,,watching,,, 1075

1001
skf which is short xlf is v strong over 2176 intraday,,,steep uptrend support line,,,,my 60min timing analysis suggests that today might present an opp to sell some FAZ to take some profits,,,and then re-enter swing at a lower price to buy back,,,will be watching

956
ES 3min has the inv HS bullish but the XLF i see a daily bear flag,,,believe the xlf will prevail in the dual

955
i know its been 3 days and the ES 1062/51 targets havent been hit but i still see them, for now

953
scalpers can lock in 10 cents profit here on skf,,,of course i'll hold longer

951
i just got a mild "sell progr warn" for xlf,,,may spill over to ES, at ES 1073.25

948
my 15 and 60min charts are saying "short rallies",, 3min says buy LOL

944
when the 5,3,3 not 14,3,3 stoch 3min skf hits <20 i will likely add another 25% to skf scalp for 50% size,,,but will chek charts when it gets there

942
theres is also a larger bear HS tho with a 10 point range LOL,,,a clunky one requiring "aritistic poetic license", 15min ES chart

939
skf,,scalp, taking 25% position new here at 2171

936
sellers "should be" waiting at 1071, 74, and 75 ES,,,if not then possible ES rally,,,still have bear bias for now under that 1080 DTL

934
if BAC can break


that 1294 then BAC could fall fas,,tho i expect bounce there first
 
Looking for a spot today to possibly double the BAC position before taking profits

929
for holds over 1 hour,,,ES has a clunky bear HS type thing while under 1074 that points to a target of 1061 if the 1071 breaks,, interestingly the 1061 ir right at Fridays target 1064/62

922
if BAC hits 1298--1305ish i may take profits on half of those options puts

912
ES has 2 declining resist trrendlines now at 1076 and 1080 R,,,will be watching to see if those hold. If so, Friday's lower are still the target,,, 1064/61 and 1051.... still have the lower 1051 as valid while ES < 1080

909
Today some of the swings might hit their targets to sell half of the position, will be watching....


9:08 AM
SWINGS: VXX is now at the 10% roi profit level, starting to catch up to FAZ 15% and TZA 22% (from 31.30 cost)... Gold continues its slow ascent up, the DGP is up about 2% pre-market and 4.5% roi, the newly acquired position friday in BAC short is up 1% pre-mrkt.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, August 12, 2010

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0412
BAC should have lots of resist at 14 its prior low,,, also if it goes under $10 then many mutual funds will need to dump it,,,not allowed < 10 dollar stocks

0406
you would be surprised at the crazy panic prices you can get sometimes afterhours LOL

0406
i'll cover some BAC at 12.98 afterhours on any panic sellers,,,prob won't fill its at 1322 now,,,,still see 12 for bac later

0404
well i still have


the swings in faz and vxx and gold...roi

14%, 10%, and 2%,,, i still see no reason to dispose of them
 
 
0352
ES has very low volume today,,,no move up on low vol? hmm

0348
there goes faz and xlf.....that 10 min stoch gave an excellent signal an hour in advance, along with the other tech indicators

0342
my VXX swing is trying to break yesterdays high :)

0341
there is risk in BAC short tho,,,,its sitting on the daily boll band,,,,the macd hist trying to tick up,,,but i'm comfy with it,,,could hit 1350/70 i'll just short more

0338
XLF has unfinished biz on the downside to me in coming days,,,not sure it has much room for upside,,,the bear flag is more clearly defined on xlf than the spx,, financials could drag the spx down

0327
shorting BAC into the close 1330

0312
selling "should have" kicked in from those warnings,,,gave only a mild sell,,,but the warning says more selling,,,tho it doesnt look that way now grrr



0257
i will only take profit on 25% of faz shares here at the 1530---i see higher

0250
now faz is pushig right against its pennant R line...should break it higher

0248
sell progr warn #2

0242
ES does have a lil bull diverg 3min,,,unknow if strong enough,, i favor the faz setup until its broken

0240
ok stoch has hit its "breakout" target now...if this holds then faz should go for the highs

0239
sell prog warn in xlf,,,medium strength

0235
stoch at 62......watching here,,,

0229
cant use just one indicator but a combo of confirming ones

0229
still watching that stoch,,,works very good under these conditions (not always but in certain conditions,,,,)

0227
faz 60min has a bull pennant

0224
stoch at 54 now but other charts suggest it still needs 60--63....it should pop up on that in faz

0222
taking some faz off here at 1522 makes sense, 25% off

0218
conversely FAZ has a poss bull dbl bot W with a 1547ish trgt

0216
in 3min chart maybe ES will try for a bull asc triangl

0214
or maybe needs 63 stoc

0214
hmm if the faz 10min stoch 14,3,3 can hit 60 it should pop it up,,,last stoch is only 45 but suggesting up for now

0200
faz target is same as the first scalp....to sell 25-50% at 15.30 if able

0158
the faz bull crouching tiger setup is at 78% confidence now

0155
my autotrader just doubled its faz position at 1508

0149
i might get that "add more swing BAC shorts" setup today,,,that i mentioned yest as not coming yet

0143
 ooops...that was 1490 support not 490 LOL on faz,,,typo

0139
ES is marginally breaking over the DTL resist here

0132
program trader went in faz at 1511 or one cent over its desired 1510 ,,,last faz =1511

0130
i have an imaginary up channel in faz 1with 4.90 support and 16.10 resist...trgt 1610 resist up,,i remain bullish on faz and bearish on xlf until such support breaks

0123
program trader has a limit order in to buy faz 1510 for "all day hold"  (the 81% not 52% algo)

0121
DOW has been stronger than qqqq or spx or russell...all my long hedges have been DOW components

0117
the program trader algo (82% win rate) that took profits in faz 1530 from faz 1507 is close to reentering faz again 1510

0112
this 1082 test is impt too cuz its the DTL resist test in 60min chart,,which is why i like shorting there

0111pm
if the bulls cannot get a higher close today over 1090 then they risk a decline to 1051 instead of the 1064,,,due to delay, IMHO, then bounce,,,That is, the lower trgt becomes more likely

1203
meanwhile i'm taking another 25% of faz sshares off here for 2% profit as the faz coils

1151
my work suggests a 72% confidence of the higher break ATM

1150
if the rsi hits 63 then faz should pop higher, the 14,3,3 rsi in 15min

1150
the 15min FAZ rsi is at an impt test now....it needs to push higher over 63 for upside accel (down in xlf)....last 58,,,, 58 is the downtrend line R for the rsi,,,

1145
DOES anyone see the xlf bear flag in 60min and daily???

1143
NOW....later today,,, we might get a real "tradeable" bull diverg long on ES,,,still see none yet,,,since yest i've been looking for a real one,,,today we get a lower price low and higher rsi macd low then can maybe get a tradeable bounce long

1140
yes,,,i still have the swing faz now at 14% roi.... the 2% profit trade was a scalp

1138
the 10:33 AM to sell limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit was just filled :) .... still have 75% shares

1134
buying back the puts i sold in BAC



yest,,cost 46 cents on the puts

1132
once again the xlf is leading down,, now near its low of day,,watching for reaction at this support test, i expect lower low today in xlf

1127
Watching for break of 1078 in ES to give the bear HS target 1074/73

1125
FAZ has broken above its 15min DTL resist and backtesting now

1123
i am exiting the VZ hedge here at breakeven or 2 cents profits

1055
5min later,,,ok ES broke 1079 lets see if it hits the 1074 trgt

1050
ES 1074 is the target for a bear HS break under 1079

1040
my program trader just went into faz for all day,,, 1504 or one cent over the 1503 desired entry,,, that's the algorithim with 81% success,,we'll see...

1036
poss 3min ES bear HS here

1033
limit sell 25% of faz shares from 1507 at 1530 for 2% profit if filled

1030
i will short the BAC at 1350 if able, last 1325

1026
the setup on the faz 1503 has a 81% win rate (program trade if filled)

1025
limit more faz buy 1503 limit for an all day hold, if filled, last 1509

1020
i have a sell progr warn in xlf here at es 1081

1012
if ES cannot make 1089 today then good chance it will break under 1072

1011
ES either turns down here or heads to 1089, last 1084

1007
more faz here 1497

1002
this is still just a bear flag in xlf 60min daily to me,,,,holding the faz, currently faz profit roi is at 12% so no worries,,stops set to protect profit

959
ES under 1084/88 is bearish for me

958
bought back faz at 1512, shares sold 10min ago at 1% profit scalp

945
taking profit on 25% of FAZ shares (day not swing) for a quik 1% profit in 5 minutes

934
taking some faz early here for day,,,buy #1 of poss 4,,, at 1517

930
watcihng BAC reaction at 1320 and 1333 if it gets that hi

927
there is also 15min Boll Ban midpoint resist ES 1079, it just reversed lower off it,,,but if ES hurdles over 1079 then 1084/85 trgt

845
but i will remain bearish under ES 1088 until it breaks higher

844
60min ES does have a bull diverg that could push it over 1088, need to wait to see if it's strong enough,,,its a mild bull diverg not v v strong one

834
If ES stays under 1080 it would be v bearish, a bounce that is held there is bearish, over that could go for 1088 again and higher, last 1076

827
FAZ swing up 1% from yesterday, 14% roi so far,,,, BAC, Gold is about flat from yest but delining a bit from nightly hi to prob test its support from yest,minor

8:26AM
The ES did manage a marginal break over that "weak" downtrend line to make 1089, but it was unable to clear 1089 horizontal R,,, so 1089 is now an impt R area until it is broken. or more precisely 1087/89 R. A hold down at the 1084/88 area was the 9PM target last night,,it hit 1088 at 3 AM

Friday 8:25 AM
ES is likely to break the 1073 for the same targets as yest 1064/62 then 1051ish,,,,this will be a third test of the 1073 and #3 often breaks it, tho it IS on premarket/afterhours trading not 930--40pm


Thurs 11:44PM
interesting... ES has crawled up to 1084 in the last 7 hours,,,back to that 1084/86 resistnce area...will it be able to get over it during the eve lite vol session???

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings

1135pm
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected

0506
there r no bull divergences so i


expect any bounce to be small,,, we need to make

a lower low in price with a higher low on macd/rsi

to set up a "real rally",,, that chart pattern to me means "short the bounces" not "go long"
 
0447
i will be watching 1088 SPX,,,,under 1088 is v bearish for me,,,,it held as resistance today when it "should have" broken higher

0441
usually but not alwyas,,,the "first" sideways move will continue in the direction of the previous trend, in this case down spx,, spx has a type of bear flag now,,,looks like ES had a bear flag, broke lower, and backtested back up, and now i expect down

0436
the qqqq put in a bear continuation pattern today candle,,, on neck,,, for a pic see
http://www.fxwords.com/b/bearish-in-neck-on-neck--thrusting-continuation-patterns.html

0401
well that was fun but also


exhasuting day,,those T trades were a dud
 
0358
i'm taking 10% profit on half of BAC puts,,,holding rest, and holding the BAC swing short now up 1.63% on direct stock


0350
so it should do 3522 now not .18 if .16 breaks

0348
TBT missed my 10AM target of 35.18 by 2 cents twice today,,,,made .16 grr,,,, still holding it till the close

0339
the 1084/86 is proving stronger R than i expected,,,it is only MINOR resist on a shallow trendline,,,bullls should have been able to break this already,,,inability to do so shows bull weakness to me

0338
the es chart still says "sideways with poss up"...but tug of war between 15min 60 and bear daily

0336
swing shorts can be taken in BAC here 1318 but must be prepared that 1350 or 1370 is still bearish,,so a scale in position or a wide stop

0333
ES now back at 1084,,,has had trouble getting over 1084 86,,,but if it breaks it will trigger buys higher

0332
TBT already made new daily highs,,,spx has not

0331
TBT still doing good tho and not



stopped out yet,,,
tbt should outperform the spx if spx goes up

0326
i just took a 2 cent loss on T,,,,it should move up but just not worth it,,,still have the TBT scalp unstopped with stop in the profit zone

0325
grr this T long just is not working today,,, i'm exiting here ,,, 2nd try on T

0323
T prob wont surrvive another hit down at .60, which is why i tighted stop

0322
T should move higher but it is having trouble here,,,hard to get a good read

0321
\2657 stop on T for now
 
0319
raising tbt stop to 3497,,,want the extra profit $$ if stopped

0317
stop 3493 on TBT to guarantee lil profit if stopped on 2nd half,,,took first half profit already

0314
taking 25% more TBT off here for 27 cents profit

0311
above the mkt T 2684 should pop it to the high of day

0310
if 1084 breaks should get at least 2 pts higher,,,why i havent reversed short just yet,,,still have half of long

0306
i'm not reversing short yet here at es 1084,,,,hodling on a min

0305
the ABOVE the mkt long scalp in T also trriggered


0303
taking off half of upro long here at 1083 es from 107975, for a 4 point ES profit

0302
TBT buy program warning,, if it kicks in it should pivot it to its target

0300
.i intend to prob


reverse short 1083/84 from the 1078.75 long
 
0258
i'll close some upro long spx at es 1084 for 4.25 ES pts,,if able

0255
taking a quik 20 cents scalp [profit on 25% of tbt shares rite here,,, 3 minute trade :)

0253
the ES above the mkt trade also triggered long

0251
doing scalp TBT 3480 stop 3471 here

0249
above the mkt 2674 long T also,, last 2672 (already in T)

0246
ABOVE the mkt,,,at ES 1079.75,,i'll scalp long via upro

0240
1079.50 ES short could work,,,watching if it hits that

0238
ES has just broken the pennant to downside,,,a lil pop up backtest would be ok normal,, followed by more down

0234
now the ES is in a dangerous 3min bear pennant...see it???

0224
look at June 22 and 23 ES candles,,,then look at today and yest candles...look familiar???? more downside expected

0221
BAC puts up 12% roi,,,, BAC direct short at 1.4^% profit,,,still holding for now


0219
the 133t on TBT has a nice bull inv HS

0215
wedge trades often appear to be "against" the trend but in reality r not

0214
wedges are fun to trade because they usually trap the bear or bull on the wrong side, so entering them can be profitable

0214
now T has finally broken the 3min bull falling wedge,,,watching to see if it can go for the 2705 trgt

0211
i'm not sure if T can hit 2710 but if it does it could soar nicely,,,similar to what KO coca cola did on last months trade

0344
that failure at 1084 was key---still is...again it is weak resistance and should have broken higher

0209
the smallest move up is being magnified in the TBT

0208
the hedged longs T and TBT are doing their job moving up,,,BAC short continues down,,gold continues up,,,FAZ swing long short xlf is still valid just jumping around

0206
1070 isnt real supprt.... 1064/62 and 51 are,, i still have those trgts

0205
or, what ppl often call "consolodatino"

0204
earlier i was mentioning dojis in middle or start of move being continuatino,,,vs those after extended move as being reversal,,,,, today's FAZ doji is a good example of a continuation (up for faz) doji,

0201
the BAC puts are up about 8%....should see 40% on those

0158
i have a "short the rallies" signal


strongly now...but no new short entry,,,for the

indices,,,,individ stocks can be shorted now

0148
ES "should" pop up 2-4 ppoints


here,,still see more downside later,,,inability to

popup would be weak, to me
 
0141
BAC continues to deteriorate and not particapate in any spx rally :)

0137
back in T at 2673 long

0124
ES is holding that same Downtrend line we mentinoed before,,,1086ish,,,now declining R is at 1084

0119
and if tbt doesnt hold .93ish i will exit on a pop up,,,,that would be breaking the support trendiline

0118
now...T has formed a bull falling wedge 3min but no valid reentry long yet

0113
ES should still see some sideways for a lil...may [present a short opp soon

0109
TBT made 35.15 just under the revised tbt trgt 3518
 
0107
TBT is short the TLT treasury bonds

0107
TBT can move up even if SPX goes down

0103
there it is,m,,,tbt broke 3500

0101
tbt mini breakout expected in next 16 min

1253
the ATT trade premise was a buy at support AND break of resist,,, the resist break was stalling too much so i exited that one

1252
well glad to be out of T,,,now at 2671,,,unsure if long opp will re-present itself again,,,no new entry yet

1250
ES chart still says more sideways or up,,,no new short entry yet for holding longer than 1 hr

1245
revised tbt trgt 3518 not 3510

1244
TBT testing it high of day now,,,i expect a breakout higher

1242
3510 tbt trgt first

1237
and 1081.75 is support coil 3min

1234
1083 is current ES coil resist,,,watching to see if it breaks

1231
1089 is the target if the coil breaks higher,,,a break lower target is

1225
ES 3min is now coiling triangle

1222
if the VIX moves up,,,even better, since premiums are higher when volatility is high

1221
but they usually expire worthless so i keep the whole premium (100% roi)

1220
writing naked puts calls,,that


puts the time decay in my favor instead of against

me,,,,melikes,,,one drawback---the max ROI on it is 100%

1216
i'm also looking for a BAC entry to WRITE (not buy) some naked uncovered calls,, i will likely do that at the same time that I add more BAC shorts

1211
but...we havent even broken 1086 ES yet,,, v bearish unless it breaks over that , for me

1157
i am exiting this T at breakeven here,,,somethings not rite

1152
tbt chart suggests a minibreakout here to 3515/28ish

1149
taking some tbt for scalp only here 3488 stop .60ish

1135
1085/86 ES has mild resistance via 60min shallow downtrend line,,,watching to see if that holds and forces another lower hi,,,or if bulls can push it over

1123
AT&T is trying to break higher for the 2607 target,,,last 2690

1122
BAC could hit 1350 even 1370 and still be bearish for swings,,,,watching,,,last 1317 and unable to move up today,,,but interested in shorting anywhere 1300--1370 depending on charts for swing

1114
my charts suggest probable sideways in ES here with maybe a lil up,, then DOWN

1110
i just got filled on the 2680 fill for a scalp on T long, additional shares but T is tricky now,,watching it

1108
right now 15min says "poss bounce in BAC",,so does 60min

1107
i dont plan to add shorts in BAC until the 15 and 60min charts settle down,,, i use the weekly daily 60min 15min 10min 3min combo for swing entries

1104
still looking to double my BAC position but no swing "add more shorts" entry yet,,,, likely wont come for next hour,, the additinoal shorts could be either above or below 1325 and still be "valid"

1102
multiple dojis in the middle or start of a move---move will continue in that direction....but mult dojis after move has extended,,,move will reverse,,in general,,, there was lots of time to short


those dojis in spx
 
 
1052
when XLF turns down then BAC should plunge faster than FAZ rises

1050
BAC doesnt care about this lil pop in spx,,,bac continues down short,,,T continues up long

1048
T has a mini bulll dbl bot in 3min that project to 2705ish

1044
i will buy more T limit 2680,,,good for next 15min only,,, stop in T is 2646 for now

1041
T target is 2708,,,simple trgt of the prior HOD,,to watch reaction....may take partial profits but my work suggests good chance it will break it higher

1037
doubling the T position now,,,buy #2 of 4

1032
this time,,,BAC may not hold the .16 support (close to where i covered 25%)

1030
i beleive they will use T to hold up the dow from a crash,,,hence my hedge in T,,,charts suggest this,, other DOW options include INTC VZ DIS DD CVX but i'm not watching those ones

1025
i am hedging via LONG in T now,,,2680,,, buy #1 of poss 4

1008
last bid/ask is .49/.51

1007
taking some BAC puts here at 51 cents cost,,, entry #1 of possible 2 buys,,, sept 13 puts
 
1001 AM
take the esay 1%

1001
i'll take 25% of BAC shares off here to lock 1% scalp profit,,,it should bounce here

958
i'll play around with BAC puts for a scalp tho,,,,going to scalp via options on 1325/30 hit if able

956
timing on the bac is tricky for oiption play, since BAC is at or near a YEARLY low now,,, target is 12.21 in 10 days,,,but my other trgt is $8 in BAC in months not days

952
BAC high of day might have been the first target 1331, unsure,,,may want 1350 but i'm in short for now

950
doubling the BAC positino now,,,short #2 of 4

947
limit short more BAC 1349 limit, last 1332

944
i am SHORTING the BAC here at 13.27,,,starter position,,,short #1 of 4 poss,,, expect it to go hhigher but entering here at premium in order to participate

939
looking for a spot to re-short the BAC

938
agreessive traders could short the xlf when the 1min 14,3,3, stoch hits over 80 and reverses under 80

935
1080 ES is still Resist

931
since i'm here at the computer, i will not auto-sell half of faz swing at 1611 or 1603,,, i'll watch reactions,,, now i see a poss 1621 LOL

929
i'm looking at 1064/62 or 1051 ES targets,,,1051 depends on 1064 reaction,,,,as long as the DTL resist line holds on ES 60min

922
in coming months not days,,, my XLF target is near $10 (ineaxact),,, last 14.20,, or 142% decline xlf,,, faz will triple that

913
GOLD is also rocking thus far today :)

856
my es targets are 1062/51ish depending on 62 reaction....i will likely hold this faz for weeks,,,taking profits on some then re-buying, but always keeping 25% of shares for weeks unless 25% stopped

832
1080 ES held, last now 1076 on the way to lower targets and then stall/intraday bounce

820
ES has resist at 1080 3min chart,,,watching to see if it holds it down, last 1079

8:12
ES has a bear HS pattern 60min that points to 1068 on a break of 1078,, my next daily target is still 1062 for ES (under the 1068)

8:01 AM
Newly acquired yesterday's DGP gold is up 1% pre-market.

FAZ swing is up 1% also,,, 13% roi profit thus far,, FAZ daily target remains 16.07 for today with stops stalls in between, 16.48 next target after 16.07. I will likely try to take some profits at 16.13 (over 16.07) and then buy back those shares later.

8:01 AM
Good morning

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".