336
next week,,,poss buying opp in V visa long
301
theres 4021 VZ trgt,,,watching to see if makes new highs over .25 now
256
raising sell price on VZ to 4097 from 4047 for now,,,give it room to surge,,prob wont but giving room,,,will sell lower b4 the close if needed, VZ made new 52 week hi today
253
if vz hits .21,,,its likely to break over its .25 high of day for a new high
226
there goes oil lower,,,big red candle 15min,,,watching if it breaks support test lower or not
225
WOW ,,,VZ is holding its ground here :) despite down in ES SPX
219
ready to take profits intraday on VZ on sign of weaknes,,then buy bak lower
219
Market Maker reports on VZ intraday say they tried to push it lower, are now willing to pay higher,,around 4011,,,but i fear they really want to buy at 3975 area (prior level today they had, but didnt get)...watching intraday here
215
tough for VZ tho,,,VZ 15min chart is moving higher, but ES 15min chart doing lower is creating a drag on VZ,,nonetheless VZ doing well despite that
214
at 4015,,just got intraday buy signal for pop higher on VZ, 74% confidence,,needs 78 then 85% to move
1223
the VZ 3min chart has now changed, and it gives a 40.44 trgt on a break over 40.26, which is close to yesterday 40.47 sell trgt
1220
oil intraday support zone at 9880--9920,,,if that breaks lower, oil becomes more bearish
1155
i might try TNA scalp on next pullback, not ready yet here,,maybe at 74.25ish IWM area on the TNA
1141
4083 stretch trgt today for VZ, but will still sell lower at 4047 if able, last 4021, the 60min measured trgt is 40.38
1131
but VZ timing analysis suggests bullish bias next 4 hours,,so maybe drift higher first, then lower, then new highs
1130
Market Maker reports on VZ, imo, suggest that the MM are going to try to push the VZ price lower if able, so they can buy more shares... its a bullish report
1118
if SPX does decide to go higher in coming weeks, a look at the charts since Nov. 25 suggest that it may do so in the form of a bearish rising wedge
1106
vz hit 4014 mini trgt :)
1055
40.14 mini trgt now on vz, last 4007
but will sell at 4047 not here
1053
VZ near testing yest hi now,,,chart pattern has enough energy to break it on the first try, then convert to a wedge intraday,,watching reactions. Buyers should be waiting in the 39.74 area if it pulls back first instead, on a pb I might add more shares, unsure atm
1039
a break over 40.11 then 40.28 should give the first trgt 40.47 on VZ, last 40.00...may stall here at resistance,prior daily high area
1038
TLT daily candles, is doing what i think the VZ daily candles will do in comming day(s)
1030
TLT continues higher, up .83, toward its 122 trgt. 121.69 last...tho I closed TLT yesterday i'm still watching it,,,may re-enter again later
1022
sco oil shorts i'm holding longer, with looser stops. VZ i'm trading more actively. diff strategies
1021
if it gets there, I will sell VZ at 40.47 target, and then look to buy back again later
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 30, 2011
Oil charts
Charts below show simple horizontal supports and resistances. Oil has been very good about reacting to these levels.
Other oil charts with trendlines, etc may be posted later.
Right now, the main level I'm looking at is 92.58. If that breaks, oil could plunge lower. 92.58 held on a recent test, but that level "area" has been important since January, as the red line shows.
Click on chart to see a larger size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Other oil charts with trendlines, etc may be posted later.
Right now, the main level I'm looking at is 92.58. If that breaks, oil could plunge lower. 92.58 held on a recent test, but that level "area" has been important since January, as the red line shows.
Click on chart to see a larger size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 29, 2011
AA Short (possible entry)
AA - Considering SHORT at 8.77-- 8.98 area, if it can get a bounce on 60 min chart, possible entry on Friday per timing analysis.
AA Chart -- Double Click the chart for a larger view
Chart shows a bear coil that broke to downside, but the 60 min chart also shows a bullish falling wedge. So lower is expected but the wedge warns that the shorts must be monitored and exited at the right time. But there is still plenty of room in the wedge for lower prices, as long as the resistance levels hold. Not ready to short this yet, but will consider short on the next bounce, if it comes. No huge daily rsi bull divergence to worry about, if it looked like the Aug--Oct diverg I would consider long instead (actually I was long AA back then near Oct 6). Timing analysis suggests that in about 4 hours AA may bounce and start to level off (putting it as a possible Friday short entry).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
AA Chart -- Double Click the chart for a larger view
Chart shows a bear coil that broke to downside, but the 60 min chart also shows a bullish falling wedge. So lower is expected but the wedge warns that the shorts must be monitored and exited at the right time. But there is still plenty of room in the wedge for lower prices, as long as the resistance levels hold. Not ready to short this yet, but will consider short on the next bounce, if it comes. No huge daily rsi bull divergence to worry about, if it looked like the Aug--Oct diverg I would consider long instead (actually I was long AA back then near Oct 6). Timing analysis suggests that in about 4 hours AA may bounce and start to level off (putting it as a possible Friday short entry).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thurs thoughts
SEE POST BELOW FOR CHARTS and thought on trading individual stocks in addition to etfs.
420
stop 39.66 on VZ,,if stopped out i will exit with a loss and re-enter later,,,still see higher VZ in coming days weeks
348
since Dec 5, VZ has not been below its 20 MA,,,barely below its 5 Moving Avg, on daily chart, even when DOW fell 400 points
342
not likely, but if VZ hits 4048 b4 the close i will sell half,,,
334
VZ is right at resist, closing near there or higher, tomorrow it could pop higher nicely
333
went long VZ for swing, at 40.00
303
out of TLT for now,,,will look to re-enter again later, stopped out for less than optimum profit
256
TVIX could work here, 3125ish
244
still on 74% ES sell signal into close
239
TLT hit 121.06,,,qatching for .23 next, then .89
234
sell signal just triggered on ES at 74% confid at 1254.50
230
if 121.05 TLT break gives pop trgt of 121.24,,,still waiting on the 121.89 for now tho
220
73% confidence level signal just triggerd, for long treasuries,higher..at TLT 120.85
218
they are trying for a 15min bull inv HS on OIL futures,,,i think it will fail tho,,,see lower oil per daily and 60min charts,,,but watching the poss bullish formation nonetheless
154
oil shortable here 9960, imo
150
stop at 120.69 on TLT to guarantee some profit if it falls, if stopped out i will take profits and look to reload again, as i still see higher even if stopped
143
121.88 limit sell order on TLT, last 121.02
136
removing TLT lim sell 121.17===will do manually,,now,,i might not have time to buy it back today, if it hits trgt, so doing manual
134
tho oil is barely green, unlike spx
133
OIL has rallied sharply higher here,,,still see another turn lower in oil later
129
its more applicable to swings than intraday,,,but TLT and SPY SPX are both green today,,,for swings,,,rarely does TLT lose the battle---bond traders are the smartest of all and generally win
126
1251 first trgt from 1255 es===watching if 1251 holds if tested,,break of 1249 could be trouble for ES
124
2689 TZA first trgt from 2614
123
with this candle pattern, TLT "should" have an upward bias for next 69 minutes
122
120.22 new target for active traders on TLT,,passive 122 trgt
119
120.99 TLT just hit its posted measured target..still see higher
117
TLT just hit .97, or 1 cent under prior limit order, but now raised to .14 higher
113
3min chart now have a measured 30 cent trgt on a break of .70, to 121.00,,still trying above that trgt for 121.14 for now, then 122, 124, 127
108
agressive 1255 ES short here could work,imo,,if willing to endure poss higher, to scale in
106
using daily and 60min charts,,,,ES is giving "almost" a short swing setup, but SPY is not,, needs more time b4 swing short imo,,but opp may present later
1253
also on TLT notice the upper Boll Band on 60min chart---now at 121.56 and pointing up not flat,,,and the last time TLT was at 121.56 was last tuesday, not recently,suggesting higher....the 121.56 is higher than the highest hi of the last 16 trading hours
1248
under 120.40 would still be ok for TLT swings,,,but over 120.40 (new resist now turned support, weaker intraday suppp) would be v bullish,imo
1246
TLT has broken over its 3min boll bands, on the way to test 15min upper BB at 121
1241
60min stoch on TLT is overbought over 80 but can stay there a few more hours,,,think it will revisit a higher move on the stoch, given the candle patterns bullish on the 60m
1238
121.14 TLT is new limit order to sell TLT, up from 120.97,,if it doesnt fill higher then may take the lower price,,,may move fast,,,next trgt 122
1218
TLT has hurdled the first .60 trgt,,,looking to sell half still at .97, last .62,,,should" see .97 quickly since the .60 broke
1148
i will take profits at 120.97 TLT if it gets there, then look for poss re-entry
1113
if TLT tlt hits 120.60, should see the 121 trgt quickly thereafter, last 120.42
1110
121 and 122 are TLT trgts initially
1020
fwiw,,,oil moving lower, and TLT moving higher, could present problems for SPX bulls
1019
alt, there are 3x etfs like TMF also but has lower volume
1018
tlt may be ready to pop higher here, tlt long or tbt short could work here for either swing or scalp
951
in TLT 120.36,m,, TLT is 1x long,,,TBT is 2x short,,, so need more shares in TLT to mimic 2 or 3x
948
i will buy TLT 120.12 limit if filled, last 120.34,,may pay higher price later if no fill
945
ES at impt test here now at 1250 resist,,,trying to break higher,,,longs might want to watch carefully and tighten stops in case it is rejected here
943
oil moving lower, still holding oil shorts via SCO swing,,,tested yest low with a small break lower, watching reactions in this area now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
420
stop 39.66 on VZ,,if stopped out i will exit with a loss and re-enter later,,,still see higher VZ in coming days weeks
348
since Dec 5, VZ has not been below its 20 MA,,,barely below its 5 Moving Avg, on daily chart, even when DOW fell 400 points
342
not likely, but if VZ hits 4048 b4 the close i will sell half,,,
334
VZ is right at resist, closing near there or higher, tomorrow it could pop higher nicely
333
went long VZ for swing, at 40.00
303
out of TLT for now,,,will look to re-enter again later, stopped out for less than optimum profit
256
TVIX could work here, 3125ish
244
still on 74% ES sell signal into close
239
TLT hit 121.06,,,qatching for .23 next, then .89
234
sell signal just triggered on ES at 74% confid at 1254.50
230
if 121.05 TLT break gives pop trgt of 121.24,,,still waiting on the 121.89 for now tho
220
73% confidence level signal just triggerd, for long treasuries,higher..at TLT 120.85
218
they are trying for a 15min bull inv HS on OIL futures,,,i think it will fail tho,,,see lower oil per daily and 60min charts,,,but watching the poss bullish formation nonetheless
154
oil shortable here 9960, imo
150
stop at 120.69 on TLT to guarantee some profit if it falls, if stopped out i will take profits and look to reload again, as i still see higher even if stopped
143
121.88 limit sell order on TLT, last 121.02
136
removing TLT lim sell 121.17===will do manually,,now,,i might not have time to buy it back today, if it hits trgt, so doing manual
134
tho oil is barely green, unlike spx
133
OIL has rallied sharply higher here,,,still see another turn lower in oil later
129
its more applicable to swings than intraday,,,but TLT and SPY SPX are both green today,,,for swings,,,rarely does TLT lose the battle---bond traders are the smartest of all and generally win
126
1251 first trgt from 1255 es===watching if 1251 holds if tested,,break of 1249 could be trouble for ES
124
2689 TZA first trgt from 2614
123
with this candle pattern, TLT "should" have an upward bias for next 69 minutes
122
120.22 new target for active traders on TLT,,passive 122 trgt
119
120.99 TLT just hit its posted measured target..still see higher
117
TLT just hit .97, or 1 cent under prior limit order, but now raised to .14 higher
113
3min chart now have a measured 30 cent trgt on a break of .70, to 121.00,,still trying above that trgt for 121.14 for now, then 122, 124, 127
108
agressive 1255 ES short here could work,imo,,if willing to endure poss higher, to scale in
106
using daily and 60min charts,,,,ES is giving "almost" a short swing setup, but SPY is not,, needs more time b4 swing short imo,,but opp may present later
1253
also on TLT notice the upper Boll Band on 60min chart---now at 121.56 and pointing up not flat,,,and the last time TLT was at 121.56 was last tuesday, not recently,suggesting higher....the 121.56 is higher than the highest hi of the last 16 trading hours
1248
under 120.40 would still be ok for TLT swings,,,but over 120.40 (new resist now turned support, weaker intraday suppp) would be v bullish,imo
1246
TLT has broken over its 3min boll bands, on the way to test 15min upper BB at 121
1241
60min stoch on TLT is overbought over 80 but can stay there a few more hours,,,think it will revisit a higher move on the stoch, given the candle patterns bullish on the 60m
1238
121.14 TLT is new limit order to sell TLT, up from 120.97,,if it doesnt fill higher then may take the lower price,,,may move fast,,,next trgt 122
1218
TLT has hurdled the first .60 trgt,,,looking to sell half still at .97, last .62,,,should" see .97 quickly since the .60 broke
1148
i will take profits at 120.97 TLT if it gets there, then look for poss re-entry
1113
if TLT tlt hits 120.60, should see the 121 trgt quickly thereafter, last 120.42
1110
121 and 122 are TLT trgts initially
1020
fwiw,,,oil moving lower, and TLT moving higher, could present problems for SPX bulls
1019
alt, there are 3x etfs like TMF also but has lower volume
1018
tlt may be ready to pop higher here, tlt long or tbt short could work here for either swing or scalp
951
in TLT 120.36,m,, TLT is 1x long,,,TBT is 2x short,,, so need more shares in TLT to mimic 2 or 3x
948
i will buy TLT 120.12 limit if filled, last 120.34,,may pay higher price later if no fill
945
ES at impt test here now at 1250 resist,,,trying to break higher,,,longs might want to watch carefully and tighten stops in case it is rejected here
943
oil moving lower, still holding oil shorts via SCO swing,,,tested yest low with a small break lower, watching reactions in this area now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Trading Individual Stocks in addition to Indices (DIA, SPY, QQQ)
I will possibly add more commentary here later. For now, some quick thoughts:
My posts often feature stocks from the Dow Jones 30 (as well as other Top 100 stocks, and small cap individual names as well). This post focuses on the Dow.
The charts below show daily, one year charts, but the same principles apply to shorter timeframes such as 60 minute charts. Trading high volume individual stocks is suitable for holding times from hours to months.
The charts below show how trading individual stocks (for multi-day swings, to multi-month positions) can easily outperform the S&P 500 (SPY), The Dow Jones (DIA), and the Nasdaq / Tech (QQQ).
For example, for longs, MCD McDonalds is up 30% this year, vs. 4.7% for the Dow (with SPY at 1% loss and QQQ up 1.68%).
Visa up 42%!
For example, for shorts, AA is DOWN 44% this year. Tremendous profits for those short AA.
In the Charts below, the Dow Jones is the blue line, for comparison. 1 year, daily charts.
Stocks in the charts below are currently in my focus list, which changes from time to time.
Bullish Stocks 1 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bullish Stocks 2 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bearish Stocks 1 of 1 (double click chart for larger full size)
Current Focus List for Dow.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
My posts often feature stocks from the Dow Jones 30 (as well as other Top 100 stocks, and small cap individual names as well). This post focuses on the Dow.
The charts below show daily, one year charts, but the same principles apply to shorter timeframes such as 60 minute charts. Trading high volume individual stocks is suitable for holding times from hours to months.
The charts below show how trading individual stocks (for multi-day swings, to multi-month positions) can easily outperform the S&P 500 (SPY), The Dow Jones (DIA), and the Nasdaq / Tech (QQQ).
For example, for longs, MCD McDonalds is up 30% this year, vs. 4.7% for the Dow (with SPY at 1% loss and QQQ up 1.68%).
Visa up 42%!
For example, for shorts, AA is DOWN 44% this year. Tremendous profits for those short AA.
In the Charts below, the Dow Jones is the blue line, for comparison. 1 year, daily charts.
Stocks in the charts below are currently in my focus list, which changes from time to time.
Bullish Stocks 1 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bullish Stocks 2 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bearish Stocks 1 of 1 (double click chart for larger full size)
Current Focus List for Dow.
BEARISH
***AA
***BAC
***HPQ
***JPM
BULLISH
***MCD
***IBM
***HD
***KFT
***PFE
***BA
***VZ
***WMT
***V (not in Dow but in this list for now)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wede thoughts
330
tza new highs,,,watching what it can do,,,posted b4 new highs poss in last 2 hours,,nothing fantastic yet, marginal only, but watching these reactions now
318
if 1244 es breaks, same trgts
246
73.47 IWM below the market may trigger selling, could do tza there (agressive_),,
243
if that ES 1243 breaks,,,could get nice downside continuation here
227
still holding sco (short oil)
226
scalp gave 27 cents on tza, about 1% profit in 30 minutes,,still holding swing tza for now
218
2677 tite stop makes sense if scalping tza
217
tho a volume divergence in oil may be forming now,unconfirmed, needs more time
217
oil also moving lower, and no volume diverg on oil yet, so still lower likely for swings
212
tighten stops if scalping tza from 2650,,looser for swings...this time of day,,,tza could make new highs,,2675 last
201
tza 2650 agress could work here
201
es 1248 sell signal warning 73% confid atm just triggered
144
from a swing perspective, tza 60min chart is only in "warning mode"...it will usually retest such warnings higher first
143
i have a "wait on more tza" setup,,,but holding half still
111
so 1244--1250 zone for es atm, until it breaks either way
111
conversely the 60min es is trying to form a BULL harami bounce candle pattern, so if it formed, that would negate the 15min pattern
107
the 15min ES has a modified bearish 5 methods continuation candle pattern on it, but not confirmed yet
100
(using distance between the 2 boll bands approx, tho doesnt line up with horiz or trendline resist)
1256
2730 intereim TZA trgt on break over 2693
1242
watching for poss tza entry at ES 1250-1251, see what it looks like
1227
poss tza long setup forming in 1--6minutes
1159
1240--1243 ES is its breakout higher area (from last wednesday/thurs),,,bulls need to hold that support else risk 1222 lower
1145
tza just hit 2688 swing trgt 2,,,,still have same higher ones
1144
ES is at 1245,,near the 1244 sell signal trgt,,,watching reactions here
1137
cl futures 60min chart does not have a volume diverg yet,,,heavy selling all 3 candles so far, suggests lower oil eventually
1134
Oil had a small break under yest low while i was typing, watching reactions now
1134
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
1132
oil sco is rocking now, up almost 4%,,near its swing trgt 1 but still far from trgt 2 higher
1127
oil---USO has a small break below yesterdays low,,,cl futures have not test its yest low yet,likely soon
1125
marginal break lower in DIA dow,
1124
heres the mini pullback to test ES support intraday,,,needs to hold 1248 else 1244 trgt
1052
sell alert on es at 74 % for intraday small move lower
1039
if tza can get over 2685 resist, and then get over 2717, trgt 2796ish
1038
tza hit 26.48,,,last 2663, still in, last 2666
1028
tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655,,tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655
1027
bulls need to hold es 1250 else 1244 lower likely test here
1021
TZA hit 2649, so considering the 2633 and 2649 trgt of resist as being hit,,,small candles here suggest higher tza still if it can consolod at resist, for next swing trgt higher
1003
ES 900am--10am vol higher today than yest but lower than last Mon,tues,wed vol
958
*2633--2650 first resist
957
watching reaction at tza 2645--2650 area of first resist,then 2690, then 2820
956
oil shorts may require holding a few days,swing,SCO
944
oil is moving lower nicely,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
tza new highs,,,watching what it can do,,,posted b4 new highs poss in last 2 hours,,nothing fantastic yet, marginal only, but watching these reactions now
318
if 1244 es breaks, same trgts
246
73.47 IWM below the market may trigger selling, could do tza there (agressive_),,
243
if that ES 1243 breaks,,,could get nice downside continuation here
227
still holding sco (short oil)
226
scalp gave 27 cents on tza, about 1% profit in 30 minutes,,still holding swing tza for now
218
2677 tite stop makes sense if scalping tza
217
tho a volume divergence in oil may be forming now,unconfirmed, needs more time
217
oil also moving lower, and no volume diverg on oil yet, so still lower likely for swings
212
tighten stops if scalping tza from 2650,,looser for swings...this time of day,,,tza could make new highs,,2675 last
201
tza 2650 agress could work here
201
es 1248 sell signal warning 73% confid atm just triggered
144
from a swing perspective, tza 60min chart is only in "warning mode"...it will usually retest such warnings higher first
143
i have a "wait on more tza" setup,,,but holding half still
111
so 1244--1250 zone for es atm, until it breaks either way
111
conversely the 60min es is trying to form a BULL harami bounce candle pattern, so if it formed, that would negate the 15min pattern
107
the 15min ES has a modified bearish 5 methods continuation candle pattern on it, but not confirmed yet
100
(using distance between the 2 boll bands approx, tho doesnt line up with horiz or trendline resist)
1256
2730 intereim TZA trgt on break over 2693
1242
watching for poss tza entry at ES 1250-1251, see what it looks like
1227
poss tza long setup forming in 1--6minutes
1159
1240--1243 ES is its breakout higher area (from last wednesday/thurs),,,bulls need to hold that support else risk 1222 lower
1145
tza just hit 2688 swing trgt 2,,,,still have same higher ones
1144
ES is at 1245,,near the 1244 sell signal trgt,,,watching reactions here
1137
cl futures 60min chart does not have a volume diverg yet,,,heavy selling all 3 candles so far, suggests lower oil eventually
1134
Oil had a small break under yest low while i was typing, watching reactions now
1134
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
1132
oil sco is rocking now, up almost 4%,,near its swing trgt 1 but still far from trgt 2 higher
1127
oil---USO has a small break below yesterdays low,,,cl futures have not test its yest low yet,likely soon
1125
marginal break lower in DIA dow,
1124
heres the mini pullback to test ES support intraday,,,needs to hold 1248 else 1244 trgt
1052
sell alert on es at 74 % for intraday small move lower
1039
if tza can get over 2685 resist, and then get over 2717, trgt 2796ish
1038
tza hit 26.48,,,last 2663, still in, last 2666
1028
tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655,,tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655
1027
bulls need to hold es 1250 else 1244 lower likely test here
1021
TZA hit 2649, so considering the 2633 and 2649 trgt of resist as being hit,,,small candles here suggest higher tza still if it can consolod at resist, for next swing trgt higher
1003
ES 900am--10am vol higher today than yest but lower than last Mon,tues,wed vol
958
*2633--2650 first resist
957
watching reaction at tza 2645--2650 area of first resist,then 2690, then 2820
956
oil shorts may require holding a few days,swing,SCO
944
oil is moving lower nicely,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Tues thoughts
322
compare 15min and 3min VXX to ES,,is bearish for spx es
301
"someone" starting to buy puts?
300
intraday VXX:SPX diverg bearish for spx intraday charts
229
still at 72% confid sell on ES<,,,no change so far
221
first entry was around 14% profit using SCO,,,but need to give it time,,,oil moves suddenly down so need to "be in" a bit early
220
USO daily has a 3x bear diverg on price:rsi and price:macd, which suggests short oil swings could do very well on second entry,,first entry was around 14% profit using SCO
123
theres the 1260.75,,,watching for 1259 now
122
if es tests 1260.75,,likely will go lower to test 1259
106
72% confid on es sell signal
100
now past 1:00pm,,,watching ES to see if breaks 1259 intraday
1258
*1259
1257
at 1pm, es is likely to be over 1260, but could break a few minutes later lower,,,if under 1260 at 1pm in 3min may see some selling earlier sooner
1253
at 1262,ES sell signal at 70% confid, may move to 74% in next 2-12 minutes,,,needs 85% to really move
1244
6647 below the mkt short on CLX could work if it breaks, 6687 last
1242
if tza over 2553 suggests 2575 test,,,if it can get over 2580 it can move toward swing target territory
1229
101.30--103.50 oil futures resist CL
1228
additional oil shorts, swing, could work on next pop higher,,,or on a break of support lower,,,where i'll prob add sco
1228
753/754 TF resist
1223
they may try to sweep some stops by hitting under 2550 first
1221
tza 2552 here couild work, scalp or swing
1033
areas to poss add to short positions: ES 1259 below the mkt, or above mkt at 1267,,,, last 1263
1032
charts suggest short side to me, for multi-day /weeks swings, in spx, russel, oil
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
compare 15min and 3min VXX to ES,,is bearish for spx es
301
"someone" starting to buy puts?
300
intraday VXX:SPX diverg bearish for spx intraday charts
229
still at 72% confid sell on ES<,,,no change so far
221
first entry was around 14% profit using SCO,,,but need to give it time,,,oil moves suddenly down so need to "be in" a bit early
220
USO daily has a 3x bear diverg on price:rsi and price:macd, which suggests short oil swings could do very well on second entry,,first entry was around 14% profit using SCO
123
theres the 1260.75,,,watching for 1259 now
122
if es tests 1260.75,,likely will go lower to test 1259
106
72% confid on es sell signal
100
now past 1:00pm,,,watching ES to see if breaks 1259 intraday
1258
*1259
1257
at 1pm, es is likely to be over 1260, but could break a few minutes later lower,,,if under 1260 at 1pm in 3min may see some selling earlier sooner
1253
at 1262,ES sell signal at 70% confid, may move to 74% in next 2-12 minutes,,,needs 85% to really move
1244
6647 below the mkt short on CLX could work if it breaks, 6687 last
1242
if tza over 2553 suggests 2575 test,,,if it can get over 2580 it can move toward swing target territory
1229
101.30--103.50 oil futures resist CL
1228
additional oil shorts, swing, could work on next pop higher,,,or on a break of support lower,,,where i'll prob add sco
1228
753/754 TF resist
1223
they may try to sweep some stops by hitting under 2550 first
1221
tza 2552 here couild work, scalp or swing
1033
areas to poss add to short positions: ES 1259 below the mkt, or above mkt at 1267,,,, last 1263
1032
charts suggest short side to me, for multi-day /weeks swings, in spx, russel, oil
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 23, 2011
Friday thoughts
355
oil close to 100 but unable to get back over it,for now
352
pulled the asks to allow higher,,,unless the bid is also pulled
349
IWM now close to where MM are buying it,, but only to hold up price to sell into it
341
MM reports show they may buy a bit here, so they can sell more into strength
339
esp on the russel and small cap stocks
339
price rising but Mkt Maker reports show they r selling into this,,,could be bearish sign for next week
334
MM still on a gentle sell
327
sell signal intraday on iwm, es here,,could get modest pullback into todays close if it hits 78%, at 72% confid now
237
CLX daily candle atm is a bear gravestone doji on clorox
236
unlike ES SPX,,,oil CL futures are still below their 12/13 high
235
also holding oil shorts swing
235
i'm holding my shorts over weekend, unless a big selloff comes today (likely not selloff huge today)
213
diodnt last long, now back in sync,,,MM games LOL
212
hmm intradfay only, irrelev to swings, but Mkt Makers bids are closer to price than their ask (bullish while they play that game)...
201
SPY vol also v low as expected in holiday, the gaps on daily with low vol could present problems for bulls later
1205
tza 2591 here
1049
that is, the russel IWM charts suggest that a breakdown "might come", the 15min and 60min charts
1048
imo russel intraday now has a slightbearish bias, but not confirmed, needs to break supports to confirm
1047
under 7374 IWM I may short russel or do tza,,still have initial tza for now (red 2.5% atm)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
oil close to 100 but unable to get back over it,for now
352
pulled the asks to allow higher,,,unless the bid is also pulled
349
IWM now close to where MM are buying it,, but only to hold up price to sell into it
341
MM reports show they may buy a bit here, so they can sell more into strength
339
esp on the russel and small cap stocks
339
price rising but Mkt Maker reports show they r selling into this,,,could be bearish sign for next week
334
MM still on a gentle sell
327
sell signal intraday on iwm, es here,,could get modest pullback into todays close if it hits 78%, at 72% confid now
237
CLX daily candle atm is a bear gravestone doji on clorox
236
unlike ES SPX,,,oil CL futures are still below their 12/13 high
235
also holding oil shorts swing
235
i'm holding my shorts over weekend, unless a big selloff comes today (likely not selloff huge today)
213
diodnt last long, now back in sync,,,MM games LOL
212
hmm intradfay only, irrelev to swings, but Mkt Makers bids are closer to price than their ask (bullish while they play that game)...
201
SPY vol also v low as expected in holiday, the gaps on daily with low vol could present problems for bulls later
1205
tza 2591 here
1049
that is, the russel IWM charts suggest that a breakdown "might come", the 15min and 60min charts
1048
imo russel intraday now has a slightbearish bias, but not confirmed, needs to break supports to confirm
1047
under 7374 IWM I may short russel or do tza,,still have initial tza for now (red 2.5% atm)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Wedn thoughts
321
entry 2 on tza, 26.78
301
poss ES test of 1220 coming,,1233 last
259
bought tza here 27.21
150
SPY stoch on 60min is hanging out for too long over 80,,,needs to make a move higher else a correction lower is poss, the pullback may present a long opp on covering short
146
15min ES still bearish, under its downtrend line, but watching to see if that changes and a higher low develops, if so will exit shorts,,keeping for now,swing
1:17 PM
Still have shorts entered yesterday, holding longer. DXD TZA are up about 1% and 2%, SCO down 2% for now but still holding it
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
entry 2 on tza, 26.78
301
poss ES test of 1220 coming,,1233 last
259
bought tza here 27.21
150
SPY stoch on 60min is hanging out for too long over 80,,,needs to make a move higher else a correction lower is poss, the pullback may present a long opp on covering short
146
15min ES still bearish, under its downtrend line, but watching to see if that changes and a higher low develops, if so will exit shorts,,keeping for now,swing
1:17 PM
Still have shorts entered yesterday, holding longer. DXD TZA are up about 1% and 2%, SCO down 2% for now but still holding it
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Tues thoughts
355
6545--shorted CLX (re-entered short covered yesterday at 65.00)
234
swing,,BELOW the mkt;;;97.17 oil short could work (i wont add there since i'm already short),,,last 97.27,,,could short USO or long SCO
230
heavy volume selling on 3min oil chart,,,watching reaction, could be impt into the close
217
oil 60min chart, weaker than spx es dow,,,may foreshadow lower spx as oil has tended to lead and move first recently
210
DOW JONES sell alert ,,,intraday, at 71% confid,,,,needs 78-85% to move more agressively, at DXD 1572
209
bulls need to hold es 1224,,,"should" hold on first test per support rules,,,failure to hold if it gets there, would be bad for bulls
208
Market Maker reports---they are still gently selling here,,,watching to see if increases or not
205
if SCO 15min chart can manage a triple top,,,it will likely break higher off the top (breakdown on USO oil) (that is bear triple top failure on sco ,,,to break higher not lower)
134
16.02 and 16.14 initial DXD (short dow) targets
127
Market Maker reports indicate they are beginning to sell here, small atm
125
3min chart on DOW is suggesting possible pullback, and it this time of day it could work nicely...will see
115
also using DXD at 15.65 to short Dow30
115
SHORTING at ES 1233 here, entry 1 of poss 2
113
there is a bearish volume:price divergence forming on SPY intraday as it makes higher prices here, still forming,, also a bearish MACD diverg on 15min charts
104
I will add more SCO lim 38.80 if it moves down there b4 moving higher, last 40.13,,,i may also add more at a higher price (esp if oil CL futures break under 9700/9688
1256
OIL futures CL have a possible bull pennant on the 15min chart,,,watching to see if it breaks to upside, then see lower oil even if breaks up first
1202
poss bull inv HS setting up on 3min and 15min SCO
1202
a 60min candle close over 40.50 and pref over 41.00 would confirm the bull harami on 60min sco (bear harami on oil USO)
1157
idea: watch oil---it will often lead ahead of the ES SPX TF russel qqq
1156
on the DAILY charts, we also have a possible bear eve star on USO oil, and bull morn star in SCO, forming
1155
a bull harami candle pattern is forming on 60min chart of SCO (bear harami in oil),,not confirmed or finished yet
1140
42.20 first sco trgt , last 40.32
1138
bulls need to hold over 1224 ES else could see larger pullback
1000
USO oil 15 min candle #2 is lower than candle 1 of today, oil moving lower tho of course could bounce, could foreshadow a pullback in SPX ES this morning,,oil often moves first
943
CL futures oil daily resist 97-98 area, hence the entry back short,,could go higher a bit more before lower
942
i see lower oil, then possible long entry later on covering
941
at 40.49 here, Buying back SCO i sold yesterday (oil short etf)
919
TNA jumped 6% overnight and is close enough to resist to take profit, so took the 6.1% profit from yest entry at close
900
premarket here,,Took profits on ES long entered yesterday at close, bought 1197.50, sold 1215. Also took profit on 75% of TNA bought at yest close.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
6545--shorted CLX (re-entered short covered yesterday at 65.00)
234
swing,,BELOW the mkt;;;97.17 oil short could work (i wont add there since i'm already short),,,last 97.27,,,could short USO or long SCO
230
heavy volume selling on 3min oil chart,,,watching reaction, could be impt into the close
217
oil 60min chart, weaker than spx es dow,,,may foreshadow lower spx as oil has tended to lead and move first recently
210
DOW JONES sell alert ,,,intraday, at 71% confid,,,,needs 78-85% to move more agressively, at DXD 1572
209
bulls need to hold es 1224,,,"should" hold on first test per support rules,,,failure to hold if it gets there, would be bad for bulls
208
Market Maker reports---they are still gently selling here,,,watching to see if increases or not
205
if SCO 15min chart can manage a triple top,,,it will likely break higher off the top (breakdown on USO oil) (that is bear triple top failure on sco ,,,to break higher not lower)
134
16.02 and 16.14 initial DXD (short dow) targets
127
Market Maker reports indicate they are beginning to sell here, small atm
125
3min chart on DOW is suggesting possible pullback, and it this time of day it could work nicely...will see
115
also using DXD at 15.65 to short Dow30
115
SHORTING at ES 1233 here, entry 1 of poss 2
113
there is a bearish volume:price divergence forming on SPY intraday as it makes higher prices here, still forming,, also a bearish MACD diverg on 15min charts
104
I will add more SCO lim 38.80 if it moves down there b4 moving higher, last 40.13,,,i may also add more at a higher price (esp if oil CL futures break under 9700/9688
1256
OIL futures CL have a possible bull pennant on the 15min chart,,,watching to see if it breaks to upside, then see lower oil even if breaks up first
1202
poss bull inv HS setting up on 3min and 15min SCO
1202
a 60min candle close over 40.50 and pref over 41.00 would confirm the bull harami on 60min sco (bear harami on oil USO)
1157
idea: watch oil---it will often lead ahead of the ES SPX TF russel qqq
1156
on the DAILY charts, we also have a possible bear eve star on USO oil, and bull morn star in SCO, forming
1155
a bull harami candle pattern is forming on 60min chart of SCO (bear harami in oil),,not confirmed or finished yet
1140
42.20 first sco trgt , last 40.32
1138
bulls need to hold over 1224 ES else could see larger pullback
1000
USO oil 15 min candle #2 is lower than candle 1 of today, oil moving lower tho of course could bounce, could foreshadow a pullback in SPX ES this morning,,oil often moves first
943
CL futures oil daily resist 97-98 area, hence the entry back short,,could go higher a bit more before lower
942
i see lower oil, then possible long entry later on covering
941
at 40.49 here, Buying back SCO i sold yesterday (oil short etf)
919
TNA jumped 6% overnight and is close enough to resist to take profit, so took the 6.1% profit from yest entry at close
900
premarket here,,Took profits on ES long entered yesterday at close, bought 1197.50, sold 1215. Also took profit on 75% of TNA bought at yest close.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday thoughts
I did short ES 1215 to 1197.50 for 17 points on second half, and reversed long on covering short
reversed long now, at the close, smaller position to start, SSO
exited CLX for a small profit, near breakeven
1197.50 ES, out
2114 sds stop
2112 stop SDS raised again
345
sds stop raised again ,,,2102
342
stop on CLX short at 6507,,,either it stays down here or i'm out near breakeven (4 cent loss)
331
raised stop again, 2096, to lock profits, SDS
320
1202 new resist on es into the close, then 1209/11 resist==
315
1198 impt ES support, daily support horiz,,,needs to hold here, else lower,,,holding shorts for now
314
riding SDS higher, manual trail stop, new stop now 2087\
\
308
1204 intraday pivot broken :D
257
Quick charts, why I'm in SDS and SCO (/CL is oil futures).
Double click the chart for a larger view.
247
1204 and 1209/1211 are 2 pivots to look at going into close: under 1204 suggests lower, over 1209/11 higher,,bearish bias atm imo
221
sds dipped down but did not hit 2069 stop,,,still in sds, same stops and targets
119
ES 60 min chart does have a bull harami, but it's unconmfirmed, and other chart landscapes suggest the bull harami may fail and go lower instead
119
ES bearish unless it gets a 3min and 15min candle close over 1207
117
73% confid sell signal on ES here now,,,needs 78--85% to really move tho,,at 1205 es
106
OIL futures volume on the bounce was much less then the selling earlier today,,still see lower oil swing
102
OIL has moved up,,,will ES SPX follow (on 3min charts),,tho oil now approaching resistance
101
ES now at the time that bulls "need to do something", intraday only not swing related,,,watching next 3--17 minutes, stops set in SDS to protect profit as posted b4
1245
21.70 SDS trgt, last 2090 (trgt calc using both rectangle target and prior high test)
1231
intraday ES is running out of time for higher, for bulls,,,still watching this window,,still bearish atm imo
1219
at 12:10, ES is under the 1210 zone estab at 11:35AM,,suggests poss lower prices if it doesnt move up soon, intraday, still in the 1230--1pm move up "or else lower"zone, last 1205.25,,for swings still in the 4 hour bearish sideways chart period
1157
3min ES has a bull diverg on macd hist and rsi,scalp only long, tho i'm not taking it...remaining short for now...there is not really any volume diverg
1153
eventual SCO trgt is 48.73,,,another 10-12% higher or 23-25% net profit if hit,,not sure if it makes it up there without taking profit first and re-enter, last 43.57
1150
can always re-enter if merited, if stopped out
1149
2069 stop on SDS, to protect profit from trade entered hour or 2 ago...2095 last at 1203.50 ES
1146
ES daily volume is low atm,,,there are plenty more sellers imo,,,the supports need to hold
1143
tightening stop on half of SCO now,,looser stop on second half, at 14.1% profit at the moment
1142
covering half of shorts from ES 1215 here for 10 points profit, or 1.56% SDS
1136
imo, to do "swing" damage, bears need close under ES 1196/98 (bulls must hold over it),,,still holding all shorts for now
1135
further if ES doesnt move higher by 12:14pm, chance are reduced imo
1135
IF ES is under 1210 at 1230PM/1:11 PM, would be bearish,,struggling here to get higher
1117
my charts suggests sideways and bear lower bias for next 4 hours in SPX
1111
thus far,this is a bad reaction to the 1207 test,imo,,bearish
1108
es "should" hold on first test here of 1207/08,,,and bounce,,,if not would be bearish,,,
1106
1202.50 trgt if 1207 breaks lower
1106
1207 ES impt support,,watching to see if it holds or breaks
1105
still holding short from ES 1215,,last 1208.50
1031
shorting ES via sds,,,in SDS 20.57,,,at es 1215
1023
raising stop on SCO to 42.37 from 38.40 entry,, for 10.33% profit if stopped, curr at 11.17% profit
1017
1218 es may present a short opp if it hits there,,will see what charts look like
1012
ES just broke minor intraday support at 1214,,watching reaction,,,could see lower ES SPX now as result of minor break,,still short from ES 1243--1265 swing
1006
USO (oil) double top, swing, daily, on Nov 16 and Dec 5,,still see lower oil US0,,CL futures,,higher sco
956
/CL oil futures: some higher vol selling here,,higher than 930am
943
SCO swing (oil short) is at 12% profit atm,,,may take profits on half,,,stop on half is just over fridays high,,,stop on second half is looser, higher--chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
reversed long now, at the close, smaller position to start, SSO
exited CLX for a small profit, near breakeven
1197.50 ES, out
2114 sds stop
2112 stop SDS raised again
345
sds stop raised again ,,,2102
342
stop on CLX short at 6507,,,either it stays down here or i'm out near breakeven (4 cent loss)
331
raised stop again, 2096, to lock profits, SDS
320
1202 new resist on es into the close, then 1209/11 resist==
315
1198 impt ES support, daily support horiz,,,needs to hold here, else lower,,,holding shorts for now
314
riding SDS higher, manual trail stop, new stop now 2087\
\
308
1204 intraday pivot broken :D
257
Quick charts, why I'm in SDS and SCO (/CL is oil futures).
Double click the chart for a larger view.
247
1204 and 1209/1211 are 2 pivots to look at going into close: under 1204 suggests lower, over 1209/11 higher,,bearish bias atm imo
221
sds dipped down but did not hit 2069 stop,,,still in sds, same stops and targets
119
ES 60 min chart does have a bull harami, but it's unconmfirmed, and other chart landscapes suggest the bull harami may fail and go lower instead
119
ES bearish unless it gets a 3min and 15min candle close over 1207
117
73% confid sell signal on ES here now,,,needs 78--85% to really move tho,,at 1205 es
106
OIL futures volume on the bounce was much less then the selling earlier today,,still see lower oil swing
102
OIL has moved up,,,will ES SPX follow (on 3min charts),,tho oil now approaching resistance
101
ES now at the time that bulls "need to do something", intraday only not swing related,,,watching next 3--17 minutes, stops set in SDS to protect profit as posted b4
1245
21.70 SDS trgt, last 2090 (trgt calc using both rectangle target and prior high test)
1231
intraday ES is running out of time for higher, for bulls,,,still watching this window,,still bearish atm imo
1219
at 12:10, ES is under the 1210 zone estab at 11:35AM,,suggests poss lower prices if it doesnt move up soon, intraday, still in the 1230--1pm move up "or else lower"zone, last 1205.25,,for swings still in the 4 hour bearish sideways chart period
1157
3min ES has a bull diverg on macd hist and rsi,scalp only long, tho i'm not taking it...remaining short for now...there is not really any volume diverg
1153
eventual SCO trgt is 48.73,,,another 10-12% higher or 23-25% net profit if hit,,not sure if it makes it up there without taking profit first and re-enter, last 43.57
1150
can always re-enter if merited, if stopped out
1149
2069 stop on SDS, to protect profit from trade entered hour or 2 ago...2095 last at 1203.50 ES
1146
ES daily volume is low atm,,,there are plenty more sellers imo,,,the supports need to hold
1143
tightening stop on half of SCO now,,looser stop on second half, at 14.1% profit at the moment
1142
covering half of shorts from ES 1215 here for 10 points profit, or 1.56% SDS
1136
imo, to do "swing" damage, bears need close under ES 1196/98 (bulls must hold over it),,,still holding all shorts for now
1135
further if ES doesnt move higher by 12:14pm, chance are reduced imo
1135
IF ES is under 1210 at 1230PM/1:11 PM, would be bearish,,struggling here to get higher
1117
my charts suggests sideways and bear lower bias for next 4 hours in SPX
1111
thus far,this is a bad reaction to the 1207 test,imo,,bearish
1108
es "should" hold on first test here of 1207/08,,,and bounce,,,if not would be bearish,,,
1106
1202.50 trgt if 1207 breaks lower
1106
1207 ES impt support,,watching to see if it holds or breaks
1105
still holding short from ES 1215,,last 1208.50
1031
shorting ES via sds,,,in SDS 20.57,,,at es 1215
1023
raising stop on SCO to 42.37 from 38.40 entry,, for 10.33% profit if stopped, curr at 11.17% profit
1017
1218 es may present a short opp if it hits there,,will see what charts look like
1012
ES just broke minor intraday support at 1214,,watching reaction,,,could see lower ES SPX now as result of minor break,,still short from ES 1243--1265 swing
1006
USO (oil) double top, swing, daily, on Nov 16 and Dec 5,,still see lower oil US0,,CL futures,,higher sco
956
/CL oil futures: some higher vol selling here,,higher than 930am
943
SCO swing (oil short) is at 12% profit atm,,,may take profits on half,,,stop on half is just over fridays high,,,stop on second half is looser, higher--chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 5, 2011
Monday thoughts
In about one hour, I am Leaving for vacation for two weeks.
CLX weaker than SPX SPY as expected, holding the short longer, with stops and limit orders set. CLX up only 0.4% vs SPY up 1.38%.
USO oil up 0.9% vs SPY 1.38%, oil also weaker.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
CLX weaker than SPX SPY as expected, holding the short longer, with stops and limit orders set. CLX up only 0.4% vs SPY up 1.38%.
USO oil up 0.9% vs SPY 1.38%, oil also weaker.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 2, 2011
Friday thoughts
345
qqq falling ahead of aapl here,,,,next week if aapl falls, qqqq could get hit--chris
325
aapl 388 will prob hold on its first test,,getting closer now,,if that were to break and close under it today, v bearish imo,,,tho prob wont do that---chris
303
bulls need to buy here else the ES is going to have a nasty daily candle--chris
302
iff aapl gets under 388,,,the qqq could see selling--chris
254
needs confirmation but just got alert that MM gently selling oil here, on that last pop higher,,,now selling into it,,,,needs confirmation---chris
246
low vol so anything can happn,,,,but ES been hanging out near its lows all afternoon, still has the bear daily shoot star--chris
244
es may want to test 1240 lower--chris
208
may not mean much,,,but ES just had a rare intraday gap lower (small),,,not often seen tho volume is low,so,,,,CHRIS
206
some selling here in oil and es,,,see if it sustains or not==chris
154
75% confid on ES sell prog alert===at es 1248.75 here
135
AAPL getting tired on 60min chart, still under the 392.50 short entry trade idea, tho still need to get under 388 for any real downside traction--390.85 last---chris
132
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz tho ES is still under the 1254 and even 1250,m,,bearish imo--chris
1150
no confirmation yet,,,but ES is now close to getting a chart setup that would suggest a 4 hour bearish bias lower--chris
1149
could easily change before 4pm but daily es now has a bear shooting star,,,CHRIS
1147
1250 es poss breaking now, bearish, after rejected at 1254
1134
testing 1254 es now==chris
failure here would be bearish
1119
heres the 1251 stall,,,,ES needs to hold this and get over 1254,,,else lower bear bias, imo--chris
1117
next 9 minutes may decide oil's fate for rest of day--watching here--chris
still see bounce later in oil after corrects
1115
Oil going for that 9980 test again,,,same # as yest--CHRIS
1112
watching 1254 ES---under that bearish, same pivot--chris
break 1250 would be bearish too--chris
1109
for aapl swing shorts, a 15min close under 388 would be good,,,now at 391.71==chris
1107
there goes 1254,,,1251 stall likely es,,,simple horiz supp---chris
1104
approaching the 1254 ES intraday pivot---held so far,,,but 3min close under it bearish-imo---CHRIS
1043
74% now==chris
1038
if es gets a 3min candle close under 1254,,,the high for day may be in (all IFs LOL)==chris
1036
oil is at a 70% confidence intraday sell program warning,,,but needs 74--78% for entry and 85% to really move,,of course it could hit that while i'm typing in this fast mkt===chris
1030
approacing the 10:33--10:40 timing area,,watching reactions here---chris
1015
intraday timiing analysis--looking at 1033--1040 timframe for poss short entries,,see what charts bring--chris
1005
392.50 aapl short could work here,,,== 393--397 higher would not invalidate the short setup--chris
1002
oil is flat vs ES up 1%==oil weaker--has been last few dayschris
954
Nov 16 was first time that trendline broke, went short then for a big fall,,this one should be less--chris
953
if you draw a trendline on SPY from oct 18--nov 16 connecting the lows, SPY did a perfect backtest of the trendline==CHRIS
951
not sure if the candel comes today or not, but a SPY close under 124.40 would give a bearish engulfing pattern and suggest lower next week==CHRIS
could also get the less bearish in neck line or spin top, maybe a bullish green candle, who knows
946
oil just broke under my pivot 9980 from yesterday,,,watching reactions here, position now green
941
oil weakness may be "foreshadowing" forecasting spx weakness, spx weakness may follow oil,,,,crazy paradoxixal market when oil and spx move in tandem together, theoretically many argue they would be inverse
941
that was fast, oil shorts now turned green :)
940
CLX up .4% vs SPY .8%, so oil and clx shorts "outperforming" the SPX shorts as we expected---CHRIS
937
well oil short entry was a bit early, but still holding it for now,,,its at about 0.3% loss now==sco---
still see lower oil, then bounce higher, swing
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
qqq falling ahead of aapl here,,,,next week if aapl falls, qqqq could get hit--chris
325
aapl 388 will prob hold on its first test,,getting closer now,,if that were to break and close under it today, v bearish imo,,,tho prob wont do that---chris
303
bulls need to buy here else the ES is going to have a nasty daily candle--chris
302
iff aapl gets under 388,,,the qqq could see selling--chris
254
needs confirmation but just got alert that MM gently selling oil here, on that last pop higher,,,now selling into it,,,,needs confirmation---chris
246
low vol so anything can happn,,,,but ES been hanging out near its lows all afternoon, still has the bear daily shoot star--chris
244
es may want to test 1240 lower--chris
208
may not mean much,,,but ES just had a rare intraday gap lower (small),,,not often seen tho volume is low,so,,,,CHRIS
206
some selling here in oil and es,,,see if it sustains or not==chris
154
75% confid on ES sell prog alert===at es 1248.75 here
135
AAPL getting tired on 60min chart, still under the 392.50 short entry trade idea, tho still need to get under 388 for any real downside traction--390.85 last---chris
132
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz tho ES is still under the 1254 and even 1250,m,,bearish imo--chris
1150
no confirmation yet,,,but ES is now close to getting a chart setup that would suggest a 4 hour bearish bias lower--chris
1149
could easily change before 4pm but daily es now has a bear shooting star,,,CHRIS
1147
1250 es poss breaking now, bearish, after rejected at 1254
1134
testing 1254 es now==chris
failure here would be bearish
1119
heres the 1251 stall,,,,ES needs to hold this and get over 1254,,,else lower bear bias, imo--chris
1117
next 9 minutes may decide oil's fate for rest of day--watching here--chris
still see bounce later in oil after corrects
1115
Oil going for that 9980 test again,,,same # as yest--CHRIS
1112
watching 1254 ES---under that bearish, same pivot--chris
break 1250 would be bearish too--chris
1109
for aapl swing shorts, a 15min close under 388 would be good,,,now at 391.71==chris
1107
there goes 1254,,,1251 stall likely es,,,simple horiz supp---chris
1104
approaching the 1254 ES intraday pivot---held so far,,,but 3min close under it bearish-imo---CHRIS
1043
74% now==chris
1038
if es gets a 3min candle close under 1254,,,the high for day may be in (all IFs LOL)==chris
1036
oil is at a 70% confidence intraday sell program warning,,,but needs 74--78% for entry and 85% to really move,,of course it could hit that while i'm typing in this fast mkt===chris
1030
approacing the 10:33--10:40 timing area,,watching reactions here---chris
1015
intraday timiing analysis--looking at 1033--1040 timframe for poss short entries,,see what charts bring--chris
1005
392.50 aapl short could work here,,,== 393--397 higher would not invalidate the short setup--chris
1002
oil is flat vs ES up 1%==oil weaker--has been last few dayschris
954
Nov 16 was first time that trendline broke, went short then for a big fall,,this one should be less--chris
953
if you draw a trendline on SPY from oct 18--nov 16 connecting the lows, SPY did a perfect backtest of the trendline==CHRIS
951
not sure if the candel comes today or not, but a SPY close under 124.40 would give a bearish engulfing pattern and suggest lower next week==CHRIS
could also get the less bearish in neck line or spin top, maybe a bullish green candle, who knows
946
oil just broke under my pivot 9980 from yesterday,,,watching reactions here, position now green
941
oil weakness may be "foreshadowing" forecasting spx weakness, spx weakness may follow oil,,,,crazy paradoxixal market when oil and spx move in tandem together, theoretically many argue they would be inverse
941
that was fast, oil shorts now turned green :)
940
CLX up .4% vs SPY .8%, so oil and clx shorts "outperforming" the SPX shorts as we expected---CHRIS
937
well oil short entry was a bit early, but still holding it for now,,,its at about 0.3% loss now==sco---
still see lower oil, then bounce higher, swing
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Thurs thoughts
354
the doji candle daily today suggests that all the shorts margin calls were met day before, else would have been bigger green candle==chris
340
shorted CLX 6502,,next supp 6480 may bounce there,,,then 6480 should break tomorrow
334
sometime between now and 357pm,,,i'm going to short CLX clorox (from the 10am focus list)==chris
322
oil does NOT have the Market Maker sell program signal, yet--chris
322
ES sell signal intraday here, 74% confid, needs 78--85% to move fast==chris
309
SCO has a chance of outperforming SDS, imo,,but have both--chris
308
i'm in. short. from ES 1243. chris
308
approaching the ES 1243 below mkt short order--chris
307
\4 hours more needed, looks like, till tomorrow 1000am--1pmish maybe==chris
306
oil charts have changed, and are looking like they still need to go lower before higher, i may even hold the SCO (bear oil short 2x) overnightr
302
below the market, i'll finally take an initial short entry, on ES under 1243--chris,,then depending on the close,,i'll decide if want to hold overnight swing
253
looking for oil to move under 99.80 for further down b4 up, last 100.12==chris
250
still watching 1243 es==chris
234
this pattern in oil, if it works, often makes a lower low headfake, then fast move up,,intraday only,,,for uso 3805ish trgt lower, then higher---chris
233
under 1243, intraday, es could drop==chris
225
also oil futures are backtsting prior supp now resist--chris
225
cancellede the USO long limit order from before,,,will re-eval long oil after i cover the short,,,charts and MM suggest a PB in oil atm, imo--CHRIS
220
38.40 SCO==chris
217
shorting oil here 100.05,,agressive ,,,will reverse to long swing on covering lower, if able--CHRIS
216
scalpers could SHORT oil here, intraday only,,tho i'll pass on it==chris
210
oil needs to get over 100 again to move, last 9980==chris
209
oil---60 min USO has a bull harami candle pattern,,,watching for a higher low to enter USO if able, a 60min close over 3860 would confirm harami==CHRIS
206
i think oil resist will hold here one more time,,,and PB,,,market maker analysis suggests they are buying oil but not done yet,,,watching for confirmation---CHRIS
155
OIL uso has moved over 3850, but still waiting longer on this re-entry, no position yet--CHRIS
106
if limit order 37.60 in USO not filled, a move OVER 3850ish may also signal a buy,,will see what it looks like if that happens
105
i'll buy USO limit 37.60 if able, for swing,,,this is an early entry tho, so half size position, may also take an early profit if it surges,,may not get this fill, if it does not go that low it would be bullish,, later i may pay more for USO but charts say to wait 2 hours before entry, so only buying on another move lower for now
1226
i'm being cautious on the remaining long half of AAP,,,it may double top and fall daily, unsure,,,stops in place--CHRIS,,and rsi bear diverg may form--chris
1225
AAP: Why I keep buying it, taking profits and re-entering. Daily Chart. Double click to view full size. AAP has also resisted andh held up very well when SPY SPX QQQ all fell hard this month.
1153
possible SHORT swing entries in these (focus list): cf, gr, nflx, clx,epd,sfly,bby,ep,low,acat,rell, HOGS, no entries yet just ideas for possible entry short on some of them--CHRIS
1130
still looking for re-entry AAP long, AAPL short, USO long,,no entries yet, swing===CHRIS
1022
oil via uso===uso has broken over its v small 60min downtrend resist line, now will wait for pb to test the support, and likely re-enter oil long via USO or UCO 2x, swing,,the small 60min downtrend is within a larger 60min uptrend ==CHRIS
1006
still holding the second half of HAL at 15% profit, took off half yesterday at 14% profit as posted==CHRIS
1005
aapl may want 390--392 area higher first, is why waiting here--chris
1004
AAPL is at the 386.00 short area posted yesterday, but not taking the short yet. Waiting awhile to see what it does here.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
the doji candle daily today suggests that all the shorts margin calls were met day before, else would have been bigger green candle==chris
340
shorted CLX 6502,,next supp 6480 may bounce there,,,then 6480 should break tomorrow
334
sometime between now and 357pm,,,i'm going to short CLX clorox (from the 10am focus list)==chris
322
oil does NOT have the Market Maker sell program signal, yet--chris
322
ES sell signal intraday here, 74% confid, needs 78--85% to move fast==chris
309
SCO has a chance of outperforming SDS, imo,,but have both--chris
308
i'm in. short. from ES 1243. chris
308
approaching the ES 1243 below mkt short order--chris
307
\4 hours more needed, looks like, till tomorrow 1000am--1pmish maybe==chris
306
oil charts have changed, and are looking like they still need to go lower before higher, i may even hold the SCO (bear oil short 2x) overnightr
302
below the market, i'll finally take an initial short entry, on ES under 1243--chris,,then depending on the close,,i'll decide if want to hold overnight swing
253
looking for oil to move under 99.80 for further down b4 up, last 100.12==chris
250
still watching 1243 es==chris
234
this pattern in oil, if it works, often makes a lower low headfake, then fast move up,,intraday only,,,for uso 3805ish trgt lower, then higher---chris
233
under 1243, intraday, es could drop==chris
225
also oil futures are backtsting prior supp now resist--chris
225
cancellede the USO long limit order from before,,,will re-eval long oil after i cover the short,,,charts and MM suggest a PB in oil atm, imo--CHRIS
220
38.40 SCO==chris
217
shorting oil here 100.05,,agressive ,,,will reverse to long swing on covering lower, if able--CHRIS
216
scalpers could SHORT oil here, intraday only,,tho i'll pass on it==chris
210
oil needs to get over 100 again to move, last 9980==chris
209
oil---60 min USO has a bull harami candle pattern,,,watching for a higher low to enter USO if able, a 60min close over 3860 would confirm harami==CHRIS
206
i think oil resist will hold here one more time,,,and PB,,,market maker analysis suggests they are buying oil but not done yet,,,watching for confirmation---CHRIS
155
OIL uso has moved over 3850, but still waiting longer on this re-entry, no position yet--CHRIS
106
if limit order 37.60 in USO not filled, a move OVER 3850ish may also signal a buy,,will see what it looks like if that happens
105
i'll buy USO limit 37.60 if able, for swing,,,this is an early entry tho, so half size position, may also take an early profit if it surges,,may not get this fill, if it does not go that low it would be bullish,, later i may pay more for USO but charts say to wait 2 hours before entry, so only buying on another move lower for now
1226
i'm being cautious on the remaining long half of AAP,,,it may double top and fall daily, unsure,,,stops in place--CHRIS,,and rsi bear diverg may form--chris
1225
AAP: Why I keep buying it, taking profits and re-entering. Daily Chart. Double click to view full size. AAP has also resisted andh held up very well when SPY SPX QQQ all fell hard this month.
1153
possible SHORT swing entries in these (focus list): cf, gr, nflx, clx,epd,sfly,bby,ep,low,acat,rell, HOGS, no entries yet just ideas for possible entry short on some of them--CHRIS
1130
still looking for re-entry AAP long, AAPL short, USO long,,no entries yet, swing===CHRIS
1022
oil via uso===uso has broken over its v small 60min downtrend resist line, now will wait for pb to test the support, and likely re-enter oil long via USO or UCO 2x, swing,,the small 60min downtrend is within a larger 60min uptrend ==CHRIS
1006
still holding the second half of HAL at 15% profit, took off half yesterday at 14% profit as posted==CHRIS
1005
aapl may want 390--392 area higher first, is why waiting here--chris
1004
AAPL is at the 386.00 short area posted yesterday, but not taking the short yet. Waiting awhile to see what it does here.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, November 30, 2011
Wedn thoughts
414
covering shorts on VXX from 50.00 around 4143--4145ish afterhours, for half the position, 20%ish profits,,, XIV would be 40%---CHRIS
409
but still holding half of HAL, sold half for 14% profit===CHRIS
408
i'm out of the uso,,,breakeven/ few cents profit or loss,,will look for other opps later---chris
345
out of half of hal at .67---chris
341
.61 stop---ok i will stop posting all this now--just manually trailing it tite as each new trgt hit--chris
340
.61 trgt next hal=chris
338
new HAL highs,, .46 stop
336
HAL overshot its 930 AM target by a few cents, and hasnt moved over it since,,wouldve been easier to just have kept the initial limit order LOL--chris
331
either HAL makes new daily highs or i'm taking profits on half--chris
331
stop .38 HAL==chris
327
HAL a few cents from high of day,,may make higher hi--chris
326
raising stop on half o HAL to 3619, tighter--chris
237
i will take profits on half of HAL before close, even if profit stop is not hit--chris
236
HAL now moving up to likely retest its high of day--chris
225
uso needs to be over 3880 in 9 minutes, last 3884==chris
224
loosening stop on oil uso temp==chris
219
uso .77 add,,,==chris
203
uso,,looking for .80ish to hold now --CHRIS
202
Came within 4 cents of USO stop, but it held, not stopped out,, 3882 last from 3871 drop (3867 stop),,may look to exit/re-enter
1253
over uso 3907 gives 3950 scalp trgt--chris
1249
over 101.12 oil,,it could pop nicely, last 100.83,,,needs to hold the support zone tho--chris
1248
oil looking like a spring setup,,watching, if these 3min candles continue
1243
100.50--100.70 oil support area--chris
1241
3893 in uso,,,chris
1238
now: uso above 3897 buy--chris
1225
OIL via USO above mkt buy stop 3904 could work with tite stop at 38.67,,,if willing to let yourself be stopped on loss and buy again lower--chris
1224
the next pullback on 3min oil chart may present a long opp, per the daily 60 and 15min charts, tho 15min suggests waiting
1151
nice 15min bull pennant (stronger than a flag) on HAL, if it holds,,,stops under support--CHRIS
1128
today, HAL is much stronger than DIG 2x etf, and DIG is now near its 60min support, so watching HAL for poss test of its support,,,,HAL must hold--CHRIS,,need to watch if the sector drags HAL lower
1123
looking for HAL to hold over 35.40--35.60 area, if supp violated will take profits and look for reentry, last 36.03 up 7.5% today---CHRIS
1102
that SPY bull morn star candles and MACD hist PpP mentioned yesterday certainly played out with a huge surge higher==CHRIS
954
will sell HAL if oil hits 102.80 today,,,the correllation is not 1:1 between OIL: HAL or OIL:DIG as it is for OIL:USO==CHRIS
951
took AAP profits on half of positino,,will buy back lower--CHRIS
949
HAL just hit 36.49 or 2 cents over the 930am target of 3647==CHRIS
947
if stopped on AAP, i will take profits, and buy it back again lower, still see higher aap--chris
944
6872 stop on AAP
944
removing the .43 HAL lim sell and will manually trail tightly the stop instead, last 3637==CHRIS
943
3619 hal,,,considering the .23 trgt hit,,,seeing if it gets .47 next---now up 8% today==CHRIS
939
HAL stops tightened, and have limit order at 36.23/36.49 if it gets there by 1030am==CHRIS
935
3623 next HAL trgt if it can hold over 35.20
934
LOL overshot while typing--chris
932
HAL approaching 35.48 trgt, last 35.30,,expecting poss overshoot,will watrch reactions--CHRIS
918
i believe that actions at 940am,,1000am, and 1030am are important==CHRIS
903
Yesterday I posted a SPY 122.70 target, last SPY 123.65, well above target 1 and near the 122.85 second target,,,,will watch reactions in this .65---.85 area
OIL hit and exceeded its 101 target, still see possibly 103 and 107 and 109,,,watching reactions as it hits each target, for continuation higher or reversal lower.
902
atm theres a huge gap up opening: ES futures are trading up 3%, HAL trading pre-market up 4.5% and up 11% from initial trgt entry,,,waiting for 930am to see AAP action, might make sense to take profits on half within the first hour,,,will watch reactions and trail the stops
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
covering shorts on VXX from 50.00 around 4143--4145ish afterhours, for half the position, 20%ish profits,,, XIV would be 40%---CHRIS
409
but still holding half of HAL, sold half for 14% profit===CHRIS
408
i'm out of the uso,,,breakeven/ few cents profit or loss,,will look for other opps later---chris
345
out of half of hal at .67---chris
341
.61 stop---ok i will stop posting all this now--just manually trailing it tite as each new trgt hit--chris
340
.61 trgt next hal=chris
338
new HAL highs,, .46 stop
336
HAL overshot its 930 AM target by a few cents, and hasnt moved over it since,,wouldve been easier to just have kept the initial limit order LOL--chris
331
either HAL makes new daily highs or i'm taking profits on half--chris
331
stop .38 HAL==chris
327
HAL a few cents from high of day,,may make higher hi--chris
326
raising stop on half o HAL to 3619, tighter--chris
237
i will take profits on half of HAL before close, even if profit stop is not hit--chris
236
HAL now moving up to likely retest its high of day--chris
225
uso needs to be over 3880 in 9 minutes, last 3884==chris
224
loosening stop on oil uso temp==chris
219
uso .77 add,,,==chris
203
uso,,looking for .80ish to hold now --CHRIS
202
Came within 4 cents of USO stop, but it held, not stopped out,, 3882 last from 3871 drop (3867 stop),,may look to exit/re-enter
1253
over uso 3907 gives 3950 scalp trgt--chris
1249
over 101.12 oil,,it could pop nicely, last 100.83,,,needs to hold the support zone tho--chris
1248
oil looking like a spring setup,,watching, if these 3min candles continue
1243
100.50--100.70 oil support area--chris
1241
3893 in uso,,,chris
1238
now: uso above 3897 buy--chris
1225
OIL via USO above mkt buy stop 3904 could work with tite stop at 38.67,,,if willing to let yourself be stopped on loss and buy again lower--chris
1224
the next pullback on 3min oil chart may present a long opp, per the daily 60 and 15min charts, tho 15min suggests waiting
1151
nice 15min bull pennant (stronger than a flag) on HAL, if it holds,,,stops under support--CHRIS
1128
today, HAL is much stronger than DIG 2x etf, and DIG is now near its 60min support, so watching HAL for poss test of its support,,,,HAL must hold--CHRIS,,need to watch if the sector drags HAL lower
1123
looking for HAL to hold over 35.40--35.60 area, if supp violated will take profits and look for reentry, last 36.03 up 7.5% today---CHRIS
1102
that SPY bull morn star candles and MACD hist PpP mentioned yesterday certainly played out with a huge surge higher==CHRIS
954
will sell HAL if oil hits 102.80 today,,,the correllation is not 1:1 between OIL: HAL or OIL:DIG as it is for OIL:USO==CHRIS
951
took AAP profits on half of positino,,will buy back lower--CHRIS
949
HAL just hit 36.49 or 2 cents over the 930am target of 3647==CHRIS
947
if stopped on AAP, i will take profits, and buy it back again lower, still see higher aap--chris
944
6872 stop on AAP
944
removing the .43 HAL lim sell and will manually trail tightly the stop instead, last 3637==CHRIS
943
3619 hal,,,considering the .23 trgt hit,,,seeing if it gets .47 next---now up 8% today==CHRIS
939
HAL stops tightened, and have limit order at 36.23/36.49 if it gets there by 1030am==CHRIS
935
3623 next HAL trgt if it can hold over 35.20
934
LOL overshot while typing--chris
932
HAL approaching 35.48 trgt, last 35.30,,expecting poss overshoot,will watrch reactions--CHRIS
918
i believe that actions at 940am,,1000am, and 1030am are important==CHRIS
903
Yesterday I posted a SPY 122.70 target, last SPY 123.65, well above target 1 and near the 122.85 second target,,,,will watch reactions in this .65---.85 area
OIL hit and exceeded its 101 target, still see possibly 103 and 107 and 109,,,watching reactions as it hits each target, for continuation higher or reversal lower.
902
atm theres a huge gap up opening: ES futures are trading up 3%, HAL trading pre-market up 4.5% and up 11% from initial trgt entry,,,waiting for 930am to see AAP action, might make sense to take profits on half within the first hour,,,will watch reactions and trail the stops
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, November 29, 2011
Tues thoughts
357
hal 3365--watching to see if it moves up 30 cents into close--chris
352
that agg scalp didnt work--chris
350
agress scalp setup long es 1196.50 here 1194.75 stop into close==chris
346
currently ES over 1195, so bullish for 15min-chris
345
the candle pattern gives 1195 as the pivot into the close--CHRIS
341
with this candle pattern, not because its 3:41pm==chris
341
this 3min candle often determines the direction of the close, in this setup--chris
337
AAP may be waking up here,,watching for resist breaks higher--chris
328
1198 es still support into close imo--chris
327
for swings, over 6800 AAP should give the next 1 or 2 higher swing targets---6750 last,,,no change in HAL, still hovering near its highs up 3.3% from yest ==CHRIS
326
i'll keep half at breakeven, half at the tighter trail stop--chris
325
119775 new es stop--chrisd
may not be able to post all new stops due to speed of last hour--
322
1198 new micro micro supp--chris
314
theres 1198 trgt, and broke higher,,,trailing the stop==CHRIS
313
need to keep close watch into close,since large moves can happen in last 1 hour==chris
312
mental stop 1195, needs to move higher now else risk lower brk of 1194 es==chris
304
over 1194 ES bullish imo,into close--CHRIS
258
now 3 min ES needs higher high candle, as stoch re-enters 80, and needs rsi 14 over 57, for bullish--chris
256
1198.25 above the mkt ES, should pop up higher--chris
254
tite stop 1194 if scalping....looser for more aggressive, for free ride higher if sotp holds==CHRIS
253
needs to be good for 3 candles on 3min to stay valid==chris
252
long here scale in 1195 es could work--into close--chris
250
ES intraday 1194 micro support...watching that level first--for into the close clues
245
15min ES suggesting higher, that next 3min pb is buyable if presents, imo--CHRIS
241
HAL 3min intraday chart--poss bull W, dbl bot, near its high of day now---CHRIS
237
oil going for its retest of 100 again now==chris
142
considering short at 122.70 SPY are if it gets up there (not today), last 120.29
133
SPY will has a bull morning star reversal candle pattern, a close today over yest hi would confirm the pattern, for candle followers (diff than macd hist setup)--CHRIS
HAL has the same
124
intraday buy program signal at 73% confid,,needs 78-80% to move, at es 1197===chris
1240
over 9850, oil is bullishj imo
1240
oil hit the 100 trgt and backed off as expectred---watching now the extent of decline, and if it makes another run for 100/101 ==chris
1229
still have 103 and 109 oil targets, same as last several days
1229
watching HAL when oil CL gets to 100, last HAL 3407, CL=9986, oil resist 1 at 100,,tho i think it will break higher after stall--chris
1218
AAP continues to lag, but still holding that swing longer--chris
1216
HAL hit the 34.01 trgt--watching reactions here---with ES under 1202 and Oil CL still under its resist, its favorable for HAL imo--HAL now up 3.78% from yest
1200
60min ES now has a possiible modified morphed bull 5 methods continuation candle pattern, using 7-8 candles not 5, similar to the midnight--4pm candle setup
1156
for those that follow macd hist bullish PpP, on SPY, yesterday the setup fired, and it needs a close today over yesterdays high to confirm it,,the setup suggests more upside in coming days for those that follow it,,, personally i just use it as one of many tools, not standalone==CHRIS
1142
hal 3391 is prior daily support that turned resist when the daily supp broke lower==CHRIS
1141
major resist test here on HAL at 33.91 now==watching reactions==CHRIS
1137
HAL 3477 hurdeled, 3401 next trgt, over that HAL can sail, now up 3.2% from yest---CHRIS
1129
still watching for HAL to get over 3377, last 3371---getting close==CHRIS
1029
AAP continues to lag spx today up .6% vs .9%, but the daily AAP is v strong and resisted/held during vicious spx downside==CHRIS
1027
HAL now up 2.7% vs spx SPY .91%==CHRIS
1026
threre it is,, HAL has broken, tho needs 3377 to sustain any higher,,,still see higher--last .68==CHRIS
1020
heres the test: HAL at 3360 prior high.,...es 1202==CHRIS
1018
OIL and SPX resist still a bit higher, while HAL at its resist early--CHRIS
1016
if HAL tests its yest hi and ES is under 1204, HAL may break higher on the first try--CHRIS
1013
llooking for HAL to test yesterdays high, and eventual break over it after poss stall==chris
1010
15min chart imo suggests waiting at least 4 candles b4 short,,up bias until then--,,even then i have no plan to short unless charts look diff--chris
955
HAL halburton is outperforming the spx this morn, hal up 1.5% vs .40% spy, DIG (related to HAL) also outperforming==CHRIS
949
AAP volume is very lite atm, still see next higher trgt
948
Oil futures CL and USO etf are on the move up, toward higher targets. last CL oil 99.18
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
hal 3365--watching to see if it moves up 30 cents into close--chris
352
that agg scalp didnt work--chris
350
agress scalp setup long es 1196.50 here 1194.75 stop into close==chris
346
currently ES over 1195, so bullish for 15min-chris
345
the candle pattern gives 1195 as the pivot into the close--CHRIS
341
with this candle pattern, not because its 3:41pm==chris
341
this 3min candle often determines the direction of the close, in this setup--chris
337
AAP may be waking up here,,watching for resist breaks higher--chris
328
1198 es still support into close imo--chris
327
for swings, over 6800 AAP should give the next 1 or 2 higher swing targets---6750 last,,,no change in HAL, still hovering near its highs up 3.3% from yest ==CHRIS
326
i'll keep half at breakeven, half at the tighter trail stop--chris
325
119775 new es stop--chrisd
may not be able to post all new stops due to speed of last hour--
322
1198 new micro micro supp--chris
314
theres 1198 trgt, and broke higher,,,trailing the stop==CHRIS
313
need to keep close watch into close,since large moves can happen in last 1 hour==chris
312
mental stop 1195, needs to move higher now else risk lower brk of 1194 es==chris
304
over 1194 ES bullish imo,into close--CHRIS
258
now 3 min ES needs higher high candle, as stoch re-enters 80, and needs rsi 14 over 57, for bullish--chris
256
1198.25 above the mkt ES, should pop up higher--chris
254
tite stop 1194 if scalping....looser for more aggressive, for free ride higher if sotp holds==CHRIS
253
needs to be good for 3 candles on 3min to stay valid==chris
252
long here scale in 1195 es could work--into close--chris
250
ES intraday 1194 micro support...watching that level first--for into the close clues
245
15min ES suggesting higher, that next 3min pb is buyable if presents, imo--CHRIS
241
HAL 3min intraday chart--poss bull W, dbl bot, near its high of day now---CHRIS
237
oil going for its retest of 100 again now==chris
142
considering short at 122.70 SPY are if it gets up there (not today), last 120.29
133
SPY will has a bull morning star reversal candle pattern, a close today over yest hi would confirm the pattern, for candle followers (diff than macd hist setup)--CHRIS
HAL has the same
124
intraday buy program signal at 73% confid,,needs 78-80% to move, at es 1197===chris
1240
over 9850, oil is bullishj imo
1240
oil hit the 100 trgt and backed off as expectred---watching now the extent of decline, and if it makes another run for 100/101 ==chris
1229
still have 103 and 109 oil targets, same as last several days
1229
watching HAL when oil CL gets to 100, last HAL 3407, CL=9986, oil resist 1 at 100,,tho i think it will break higher after stall--chris
1218
AAP continues to lag, but still holding that swing longer--chris
1216
HAL hit the 34.01 trgt--watching reactions here---with ES under 1202 and Oil CL still under its resist, its favorable for HAL imo--HAL now up 3.78% from yest
1200
60min ES now has a possiible modified morphed bull 5 methods continuation candle pattern, using 7-8 candles not 5, similar to the midnight--4pm candle setup
1156
for those that follow macd hist bullish PpP, on SPY, yesterday the setup fired, and it needs a close today over yesterdays high to confirm it,,the setup suggests more upside in coming days for those that follow it,,, personally i just use it as one of many tools, not standalone==CHRIS
1142
hal 3391 is prior daily support that turned resist when the daily supp broke lower==CHRIS
1141
major resist test here on HAL at 33.91 now==watching reactions==CHRIS
1137
HAL 3477 hurdeled, 3401 next trgt, over that HAL can sail, now up 3.2% from yest---CHRIS
1129
still watching for HAL to get over 3377, last 3371---getting close==CHRIS
1029
AAP continues to lag spx today up .6% vs .9%, but the daily AAP is v strong and resisted/held during vicious spx downside==CHRIS
1027
HAL now up 2.7% vs spx SPY .91%==CHRIS
1026
threre it is,, HAL has broken, tho needs 3377 to sustain any higher,,,still see higher--last .68==CHRIS
1020
heres the test: HAL at 3360 prior high.,...es 1202==CHRIS
1018
OIL and SPX resist still a bit higher, while HAL at its resist early--CHRIS
1016
if HAL tests its yest hi and ES is under 1204, HAL may break higher on the first try--CHRIS
1013
llooking for HAL to test yesterdays high, and eventual break over it after poss stall==chris
1010
15min chart imo suggests waiting at least 4 candles b4 short,,up bias until then--,,even then i have no plan to short unless charts look diff--chris
955
HAL halburton is outperforming the spx this morn, hal up 1.5% vs .40% spy, DIG (related to HAL) also outperforming==CHRIS
949
AAP volume is very lite atm, still see next higher trgt
948
Oil futures CL and USO etf are on the move up, toward higher targets. last CL oil 99.18
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, November 25, 2011
Friday thoughts
1228
added aap 6692 area--chris
1200
AAP in a multimonth uptrend, and has held up very well despite spx carnage--chris
1155
i'm not trading options on AAP, but options viablity analysis and timing analysis suggests that AAP calls could work, it could make a nice move in the next 1-5 days, with possibly in 2 days (in addition to the multi-week hold swing timeframe).
1149
I will probably add today to my mid=term swing hold in AAP, showing "continue uptrend" setups on daily and 60min chart, with targets at 70/71/75, last 67.38==CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
added aap 6692 area--chris
1200
AAP in a multimonth uptrend, and has held up very well despite spx carnage--chris
1155
i'm not trading options on AAP, but options viablity analysis and timing analysis suggests that AAP calls could work, it could make a nice move in the next 1-5 days, with possibly in 2 days (in addition to the multi-week hold swing timeframe).
1149
I will probably add today to my mid=term swing hold in AAP, showing "continue uptrend" setups on daily and 60min chart, with targets at 70/71/75, last 67.38==CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, November 23, 2011
Wede thoughts
1105
AAP continues to show strength despite SPX weakness. AAP up 0.30% vs SPY down 1.66%. I may add to AAP long today, but waiting, since it may want lower first. last 67.13.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
AAP continues to show strength despite SPX weakness. AAP up 0.30% vs SPY down 1.66%. I may add to AAP long today, but waiting, since it may want lower first. last 67.13.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, November 21, 2011
Monday thoughts
332
DIG targets 44, 49, 55, last 41.18,,,similar for XOM--chris
327
determining targets for RAI a bit tricky given new 52 week highs today, but targeting 4200-4300 area. Last 4067, up 1.5%ish vs spx down 2%ish.... AAP also up a little also today
257
DIG and XOM look interesting here long swing
239
OIL, uso, has bounced of its daily midpoint Boll Band line, and now moving higher.,,,,still in daily uptrend and may make new highs in coming days. Poss oil futures CL 110.
216
RAI just made a new 52 week high! Tho its marginally higher than its prev 52 week high made just a few days ago, so watching reactions as the 52 week hi is tested. still see higher RAI, esp if spx bounces.
213
AAP also showing amazing strength, AAP is also green now, up 0.25% vs SPX down 2%
956
WOW Reynolds (RAI) continues to show amazing strength this morning; it is actually UP higher 0.5% despite the vicsious gap down in the Dow, which is down over 200 points
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
DIG targets 44, 49, 55, last 41.18,,,similar for XOM--chris
327
determining targets for RAI a bit tricky given new 52 week highs today, but targeting 4200-4300 area. Last 4067, up 1.5%ish vs spx down 2%ish.... AAP also up a little also today
257
DIG and XOM look interesting here long swing
239
OIL, uso, has bounced of its daily midpoint Boll Band line, and now moving higher.,,,,still in daily uptrend and may make new highs in coming days. Poss oil futures CL 110.
216
RAI just made a new 52 week high! Tho its marginally higher than its prev 52 week high made just a few days ago, so watching reactions as the 52 week hi is tested. still see higher RAI, esp if spx bounces.
213
AAP also showing amazing strength, AAP is also green now, up 0.25% vs SPX down 2%
956
WOW Reynolds (RAI) continues to show amazing strength this morning; it is actually UP higher 0.5% despite the vicsious gap down in the Dow, which is down over 200 points
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, November 18, 2011
Friday thoughts
337
vix also hit its targets yest,,v high yest,,why i exited tvix and vxx yest,,tvix hit 6400 trgt from week ago--that was fun,,,50.00 to 62.00 tvix swing
333
VIX down 6% vs SPY flat==chris,, careful short, SPX may catch up to vix by higher spx
319
VIX looks like 4 hours more bearish sideways pattern imo==CHRIS
316
AAP which I bought this morning had a bullish harami yest (daily chart) that is confirmed today, tho thats not why i bought it---but gives a picture---chris
258
still in RAI, stop was .63,,,low today .67, survived by 4 cents last 40.13--chris
254
technically imo the 60min and daily chart of RAI look strong, it has held up during the vicious spx downside, also notice that 60min 14,3,3 stoch have gone from 80 to 20, with only a small decline, a sign of strength,,,while the rsi stayed over 50 despite the stoch decline,,, macd hist on 60min is moving higher, daily macd hist and macd are bullish, daily stoch is over 80 but can stay there longer---CHRIS
253
60min RAI reynolds inc: bull flag, ==CHRIS
its trying to break higher today on the flag
201
took profit,,uso stop hit .64,,,last .55,,,may buy back later---chris
156
stop 3764 uso for a free ride higher, or 14 cents small lil profit if stopped--chris
154
oil creeping higher,,3727 raising uso stop raised again,,,chris
133
still have RAI AAP RIMM USO
132
still holding the new oil long (reverse from short cover) with stop in place, watching reactions here, trying to bounce==chris
1247
oil 15min charts have sideways up bounce bias for next 3-4 candles, if this pattern plays out, in CL and USO===chris,,but keeping stop tite since oil can make fast vicious moves either way--chris
1233
changed lil lower to 3713 stop for now, uso---chris
1232
in uso 3750 stop 3722==chris
1221
over 3750/3800ish USO oil long opp may present, just idea, no entries, re-entry short instead could also present, staying on the sidelines for now----chris
1218
oil long may actually present an opp, on sidelines for now==chris
1217
out of sco for now,,,will eval re-entry later,,,being cautious,,oil may want $109 later--chris
1210
4088 stop sco
1209
took off half sco, other half tite stop now,,can always re-enter--chris
1206
4110 trgt considered hit, 4108 last, sco---chris
1200
4090--4110ish sco next resist trgt
1157
sco watching 4022 sco support, may exit on break under that, but hard stop set lower in case of fast decline---CHRIS
1155
3963 raised sco stop again, last 40.55===chris
1134
rasising stop again on SCO to 39.34, last 40.18
1050
newly enetered AAP making new daily highs, to fill gap==chris
1031
RAI still barely over its stop, i will not change the stop, but holding up despite SPX weakness---chris
1012
3963 same stop on rai from yest, 3979 last, may get stopped out. i still like RAI but if stop hit, i'll take the small loss and look to re-enter again later---chris
1010
3888 stop raised on sco (bear oil etf 2x), if stopped out will re-eval,, looking for confirm today of bull eve star on sco (bearish for oil)==chris
955
stop 6639 on AAP advance auto parts=chris
954
long aap 6750, swing==chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
vix also hit its targets yest,,v high yest,,why i exited tvix and vxx yest,,tvix hit 6400 trgt from week ago--that was fun,,,50.00 to 62.00 tvix swing
333
VIX down 6% vs SPY flat==chris,, careful short, SPX may catch up to vix by higher spx
319
VIX looks like 4 hours more bearish sideways pattern imo==CHRIS
316
AAP which I bought this morning had a bullish harami yest (daily chart) that is confirmed today, tho thats not why i bought it---but gives a picture---chris
258
still in RAI, stop was .63,,,low today .67, survived by 4 cents last 40.13--chris
254
technically imo the 60min and daily chart of RAI look strong, it has held up during the vicious spx downside, also notice that 60min 14,3,3 stoch have gone from 80 to 20, with only a small decline, a sign of strength,,,while the rsi stayed over 50 despite the stoch decline,,, macd hist on 60min is moving higher, daily macd hist and macd are bullish, daily stoch is over 80 but can stay there longer---CHRIS
253
60min RAI reynolds inc: bull flag, ==CHRIS
its trying to break higher today on the flag
201
took profit,,uso stop hit .64,,,last .55,,,may buy back later---chris
156
stop 3764 uso for a free ride higher, or 14 cents small lil profit if stopped--chris
154
oil creeping higher,,3727 raising uso stop raised again,,,chris
133
still have RAI AAP RIMM USO
132
still holding the new oil long (reverse from short cover) with stop in place, watching reactions here, trying to bounce==chris
1247
oil 15min charts have sideways up bounce bias for next 3-4 candles, if this pattern plays out, in CL and USO===chris,,but keeping stop tite since oil can make fast vicious moves either way--chris
1233
changed lil lower to 3713 stop for now, uso---chris
1232
in uso 3750 stop 3722==chris
1221
over 3750/3800ish USO oil long opp may present, just idea, no entries, re-entry short instead could also present, staying on the sidelines for now----chris
1218
oil long may actually present an opp, on sidelines for now==chris
1217
out of sco for now,,,will eval re-entry later,,,being cautious,,oil may want $109 later--chris
1210
4088 stop sco
1209
took off half sco, other half tite stop now,,can always re-enter--chris
1206
4110 trgt considered hit, 4108 last, sco---chris
1200
4090--4110ish sco next resist trgt
1157
sco watching 4022 sco support, may exit on break under that, but hard stop set lower in case of fast decline---CHRIS
1155
3963 raised sco stop again, last 40.55===chris
1134
rasising stop again on SCO to 39.34, last 40.18
1050
newly enetered AAP making new daily highs, to fill gap==chris
1031
RAI still barely over its stop, i will not change the stop, but holding up despite SPX weakness---chris
1012
3963 same stop on rai from yest, 3979 last, may get stopped out. i still like RAI but if stop hit, i'll take the small loss and look to re-enter again later---chris
1010
3888 stop raised on sco (bear oil etf 2x), if stopped out will re-eval,, looking for confirm today of bull eve star on sco (bearish for oil)==chris
955
stop 6639 on AAP advance auto parts=chris
954
long aap 6750, swing==chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, November 17, 2011
Thurs thoughts
352
rimm part 2 added 1851==chris
321
Long in RAI reynolds 40.04. stop 39.63.
1244
added sso 4350, buy #2
1203
the 4 hour bearish period from last nite 355pm on spx is close to expiring,,,watching reactions now,,may base and bounce---chris
1145
sco (etf to short oil) has a bullish sco morning star daily reversal higher pattern, higher sco, lower oil---chyris
1143
may see 2 more up candles, the side, 3min chart==chrtis
1141
sso approaching trgt 1 now 4500,,,watching reactrions here===chris
1135
next 4 candles on es 3min chart impt==watching,,,should have a bullish bias for continuatino of pattern validity--chris
1131
4500 sso trgt b4 tthe 4547==chris
1129
i have order for 4547 lim sell sso if it hits there==chris,,,may need to exit lower, all depends on charts
1126
3min candle pattern for es sso scalp spx playing out, for now, watching--chris
1120
next 4 candles on 3min ES sideways bias, then 4 after that bullish, if this pattern plays out---chris
1109
i was filled right at the 3min candle low of .56,,,looking for higher sso now
1108
on the daily, looks like rimmm broke resist 1 and tested resist 2 and is now pulling back to support zones==chris
1106
sso 44.56 i will go long if it hits there
1104
rimm still has a 2 hour bearish bias tho, so could move lower first==chris
1056
watching next 3 to 6 candles on 3min ES chart===sideways,,may present long scalp opp==chris
1053
1240 and 1246 trgt,==chris
1049
es tested 1236 again,,,it will likely break it higher--1233 last
1034
if ES tests 1236 it will likely break it higher--chris
959
the daily ES triangle is too sloppy to be a coil, may also be a desc triangle instead--chris
956
my charts from yest 355pm are still on 4 hour sideways bear bias as posted, but not spot for new shorts imo,,after 4 period or within may base and bounce===chris,,, yest the charts suggested lower today but they also didn't look right, not all confirmations were in place, so didnt short yest close unfortunately===chris
951
5920 finally exited last half of tvix from 50.00 for 9.20 or 18% profit last few days===chris,, it may go higher, to original 60.00 and 62/62 trgts, but took profits, can always reload later,,,a vxx short opp may even present instead==chris
939
rimm is a swing: trgts 2014, 2140, 2388==chris, charts suggest higher rimm imo, also market maker reports suggest accumulation
933
long RIMM 19.16==chris
928
Swing Oil short at 102.50 (CL futures price) could work if it gets back up there. last 101.14
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
rimm part 2 added 1851==chris
321
Long in RAI reynolds 40.04. stop 39.63.
1244
added sso 4350, buy #2
1203
the 4 hour bearish period from last nite 355pm on spx is close to expiring,,,watching reactions now,,may base and bounce---chris
1145
sco (etf to short oil) has a bullish sco morning star daily reversal higher pattern, higher sco, lower oil---chyris
1143
may see 2 more up candles, the side, 3min chart==chrtis
1141
sso approaching trgt 1 now 4500,,,watching reactrions here===chris
1135
next 4 candles on es 3min chart impt==watching,,,should have a bullish bias for continuatino of pattern validity--chris
1131
4500 sso trgt b4 tthe 4547==chris
1129
i have order for 4547 lim sell sso if it hits there==chris,,,may need to exit lower, all depends on charts
1126
3min candle pattern for es sso scalp spx playing out, for now, watching--chris
1120
next 4 candles on 3min ES sideways bias, then 4 after that bullish, if this pattern plays out---chris
1109
i was filled right at the 3min candle low of .56,,,looking for higher sso now
1108
on the daily, looks like rimmm broke resist 1 and tested resist 2 and is now pulling back to support zones==chris
1106
sso 44.56 i will go long if it hits there
1104
rimm still has a 2 hour bearish bias tho, so could move lower first==chris
1056
watching next 3 to 6 candles on 3min ES chart===sideways,,may present long scalp opp==chris
1053
1240 and 1246 trgt,==chris
1049
es tested 1236 again,,,it will likely break it higher--1233 last
1034
if ES tests 1236 it will likely break it higher--chris
959
the daily ES triangle is too sloppy to be a coil, may also be a desc triangle instead--chris
956
my charts from yest 355pm are still on 4 hour sideways bear bias as posted, but not spot for new shorts imo,,after 4 period or within may base and bounce===chris,,, yest the charts suggested lower today but they also didn't look right, not all confirmations were in place, so didnt short yest close unfortunately===chris
951
5920 finally exited last half of tvix from 50.00 for 9.20 or 18% profit last few days===chris,, it may go higher, to original 60.00 and 62/62 trgts, but took profits, can always reload later,,,a vxx short opp may even present instead==chris
939
rimm is a swing: trgts 2014, 2140, 2388==chris, charts suggest higher rimm imo, also market maker reports suggest accumulation
933
long RIMM 19.16==chris
928
Swing Oil short at 102.50 (CL futures price) could work if it gets back up there. last 101.14
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, November 16, 2011
Wedn thoughts
1235.25 stop from es short 1249---chris
4628 vxx,,,25% more off,,,25% left===chrsi
336
4% on vxx daytrade, 8% profit using tvix,,,still keeping the swing piewce of tvix longer===CHRIS
335
took off half the vxx scalp here
333
1239ish es,,,tightening stop now as ES at support, on scalp short from 1249==chris
318
:)
there goes the vxx,,,tvix,,,,also below the 1249 short, holding with tighter stop now==chris
154
vxx 4402==chris
147
out of BAC 605---chris
137
*601 and 599 stops on bac, watching it here--chris
136
stop 602 bac near breakeven, not moving, if doesnt move up, will be out--chris
113
BAC 6.03 long stop 5.93 or 5.96 could work, and possibly reverse short instead on stop
106
BAC close to impt support test at 5.99--6.03 area,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks---chris
1231
it's premature, not developed or confirmed yet, but SPX 60min chart seems to be entering into a period of 4-8 hours bearish bias---chris
1032
next five 3min candles often bearish with current pattern--chris
1030
at 1244 es 70 % confid sell prog alert on es here==chris,, again it needs 85% to move, 78% often provides entry
1020
more tvix here 5390 could work, to add to shares bought lower--chris
1012
if VIX gets over 33.50, watch out below on spx, last vix 32.64==CHRIS
959
1249 ES short area==chris
955
if it gets to 5340 "more" tvix could work, ==CHRIS
950
124.00 spy short target, may give cover short reverse long setup if gets there--chris
935
1234 ES support impt, prior low---over that bulls have chance, if bears press under it, could see much lower---chris
932
tvix up 7% from yeest close, on way to higher targets===chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
4628 vxx,,,25% more off,,,25% left===chrsi
336
4% on vxx daytrade, 8% profit using tvix,,,still keeping the swing piewce of tvix longer===CHRIS
335
took off half the vxx scalp here
333
1239ish es,,,tightening stop now as ES at support, on scalp short from 1249==chris
318
:)
there goes the vxx,,,tvix,,,,also below the 1249 short, holding with tighter stop now==chris
154
vxx 4402==chris
147
out of BAC 605---chris
137
*601 and 599 stops on bac, watching it here--chris
136
stop 602 bac near breakeven, not moving, if doesnt move up, will be out--chris
113
BAC 6.03 long stop 5.93 or 5.96 could work, and possibly reverse short instead on stop
106
BAC close to impt support test at 5.99--6.03 area,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks---chris
1231
it's premature, not developed or confirmed yet, but SPX 60min chart seems to be entering into a period of 4-8 hours bearish bias---chris
1032
next five 3min candles often bearish with current pattern--chris
1030
at 1244 es 70 % confid sell prog alert on es here==chris,, again it needs 85% to move, 78% often provides entry
1020
more tvix here 5390 could work, to add to shares bought lower--chris
1012
if VIX gets over 33.50, watch out below on spx, last vix 32.64==CHRIS
959
1249 ES short area==chris
955
if it gets to 5340 "more" tvix could work, ==CHRIS
950
124.00 spy short target, may give cover short reverse long setup if gets there--chris
935
1234 ES support impt, prior low---over that bulls have chance, if bears press under it, could see much lower---chris
932
tvix up 7% from yeest close, on way to higher targets===chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, November 15, 2011
Tues thoughts
340
exiting tvix soon,, tite stop on it now, manual trailing the stop up==chris
221
tho tvix really needs to get over 5270 to move agressively higher,last 5235==chris
220
TVIX now breaking higher,,,ES should breakdown==1257 lst es==chris
219
vxx flat 15min chart vs up on spx, often bearish setup on spx==chris
128
last tvix 5200...targets are 5380, 5500, 5600, 6064==chris
121
1255 es looks breakable lower--chris
120
added TVIX here 52.10, swing scalp===chris
1215
also VXX finding support at its 5period MA on 60min chart,,,at or above that is bullish vxx tvix, bearish spx, anything can happen but larger spx moves higher usually happen when VXX is further away from its 5 MA on 60min charts==chris
1213
long opps swing for end of year dec rally may present later, but my charts are still on yesterdeays 355pm sell signal--chris
1211
or tvix buyable pullback if took profits b4
1209
1248 short es could work here===chris
1147
3min candles suggest 9 candles sideways bear bias under 1248==chris
1146
break under 1241 can see 1235 v fast intraday--chris
1143
bounce to 1248 or lower would still be bearish under 1248 imo--chris
1142
buit 15min chart suggests hold shorts at least 15min, and no longs b4 15min, to me---chris
1140
this 1242 supp test on es v impt intraday imo==chris...1242ish area is prior support low, and prev to that a resist high that broke higher
1134
tvix at 5542 still around 10% profit area, still have the eventual 6400ish trgt area swing eventually for 28% profit if hit===chris
1130
at es 1244, still in the 4 hour bearish bias period from yest 355pm, it may extend longer also, to 1235 and 1231 lower targets==chris
934
the TVIX is at about 10% profit on second half now, holding longer===chris
i still have a 4 hour bear bias on my spy charts, from 355pm yest,,,will hold the spy shorts swing, sds, tza,--CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
exiting tvix soon,, tite stop on it now, manual trailing the stop up==chris
221
tho tvix really needs to get over 5270 to move agressively higher,last 5235==chris
220
TVIX now breaking higher,,,ES should breakdown==1257 lst es==chris
219
vxx flat 15min chart vs up on spx, often bearish setup on spx==chris
128
last tvix 5200...targets are 5380, 5500, 5600, 6064==chris
121
1255 es looks breakable lower--chris
120
added TVIX here 52.10, swing scalp===chris
1215
also VXX finding support at its 5period MA on 60min chart,,,at or above that is bullish vxx tvix, bearish spx, anything can happen but larger spx moves higher usually happen when VXX is further away from its 5 MA on 60min charts==chris
1213
long opps swing for end of year dec rally may present later, but my charts are still on yesterdeays 355pm sell signal--chris
1211
or tvix buyable pullback if took profits b4
1209
1248 short es could work here===chris
1147
3min candles suggest 9 candles sideways bear bias under 1248==chris
1146
break under 1241 can see 1235 v fast intraday--chris
1143
bounce to 1248 or lower would still be bearish under 1248 imo--chris
1142
buit 15min chart suggests hold shorts at least 15min, and no longs b4 15min, to me---chris
1140
this 1242 supp test on es v impt intraday imo==chris...1242ish area is prior support low, and prev to that a resist high that broke higher
1134
tvix at 5542 still around 10% profit area, still have the eventual 6400ish trgt area swing eventually for 28% profit if hit===chris
1130
at es 1244, still in the 4 hour bearish bias period from yest 355pm, it may extend longer also, to 1235 and 1231 lower targets==chris
934
the TVIX is at about 10% profit on second half now, holding longer===chris
i still have a 4 hour bear bias on my spy charts, from 355pm yest,,,will hold the spy shorts swing, sds, tza,--CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, November 14, 2011
Monday thoughts
356
can probably even get a scalp off part of it afterhours for 2-4 points, and hold rest swing==chris,, 85% of time, the 3:55 PM signals long/short give another pop in final 5 minutes, and afterhours, for fast scalp pieces (still to hold some swing of course for higher targets)
355
shorted 1250 here, and will add more b4 the close==chris
349
hoping es pops up another 5 points to short it there, if not, BELOW the market 1248 es I will short
348
new entries tvix 5280ish here could work as swing too, tho i already have some from lower so not adding---chris
336
shorting spx via spy,,,sds at es 1254 if able--chris
201
using the vix, and other spx charts,,,i would wait at least 4 hours b4 long swings,,,,vix still has the bullish next 4 houyrs chart,,,same chart as fridays SPY bearish for monday chart,,,fwiw---chris
155
1248 ES===70% confid on a sell program intraday==chris,,,neeeds 85% to move, and 74--78% to act, observation only, not tradeable imo--chris
152
3 min chart imo suggests waiting at least 5 candles more on 3min b4 long entry---chris
150
1251 ES suggests 1257, else lower--chris
148
while ES is under 1250 and 1259 it is bearish imo==CHRIS
131
low risk trade could be tvix here 5351 stop 5339, ==chris
i like wider stops but that could work
123
the "initial" low volume toady at this point, could also be bearish sign, since its the first low volume==chris
there are "more sellers", and "no buyers"==chris
but there IS a bullish diverg on 15min ES spy charts, so watching to see if this small intraday rectangle breaks higher or lower---chris
1250
SPX is still in its 4 hour bearish period posted Friday at 3:55PM. May extend another 4-8 hours, unsure of charts atm.
12:45
Earlier today, TVIX hit its first trgt of 54.40 from Friday's entry, still see the higher targets in coming hours days. SCO oil short also up 3%ish today, still see higher sco lower oil. Gold is down 1% and has not hit target or stop.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
can probably even get a scalp off part of it afterhours for 2-4 points, and hold rest swing==chris,, 85% of time, the 3:55 PM signals long/short give another pop in final 5 minutes, and afterhours, for fast scalp pieces (still to hold some swing of course for higher targets)
355
shorted 1250 here, and will add more b4 the close==chris
349
hoping es pops up another 5 points to short it there, if not, BELOW the market 1248 es I will short
348
new entries tvix 5280ish here could work as swing too, tho i already have some from lower so not adding---chris
336
shorting spx via spy,,,sds at es 1254 if able--chris
201
using the vix, and other spx charts,,,i would wait at least 4 hours b4 long swings,,,,vix still has the bullish next 4 houyrs chart,,,same chart as fridays SPY bearish for monday chart,,,fwiw---chris
155
1248 ES===70% confid on a sell program intraday==chris,,,neeeds 85% to move, and 74--78% to act, observation only, not tradeable imo--chris
152
3 min chart imo suggests waiting at least 5 candles more on 3min b4 long entry---chris
150
1251 ES suggests 1257, else lower--chris
148
while ES is under 1250 and 1259 it is bearish imo==CHRIS
131
low risk trade could be tvix here 5351 stop 5339, ==chris
i like wider stops but that could work
123
the "initial" low volume toady at this point, could also be bearish sign, since its the first low volume==chris
there are "more sellers", and "no buyers"==chris
but there IS a bullish diverg on 15min ES spy charts, so watching to see if this small intraday rectangle breaks higher or lower---chris
1250
SPX is still in its 4 hour bearish period posted Friday at 3:55PM. May extend another 4-8 hours, unsure of charts atm.
12:45
Earlier today, TVIX hit its first trgt of 54.40 from Friday's entry, still see the higher targets in coming hours days. SCO oil short also up 3%ish today, still see higher sco lower oil. Gold is down 1% and has not hit target or stop.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, November 11, 2011
Friday thoughts
339
its the same setup as Nov 8 had, when i shorted spx at the close
338
nothing before the close will change the chart--chris
337
fwiw, my SPX SPY charts swing just changed to a bearish bias for next 8 trading hours---CHRIS
302
still have the first trgt on TVIX at 5440 from 50.00, last 5095, order in place to sell a piece of it, if it gets there===chris
257
added part 2 of oil short finally at 99.00 oil===chris
255
vix "should be" around 27 with spx here,,,but vix is at 30ish,,,bearish for spx swings imo--bullish for vxx tvixchris
120
i might add oil shorts: under 98, or at 99, nothing yet, swing--- (using /CL futures for analysis_)
100
LOL still nothing changed i see---24 candles still not done===CHRIS...VIX has closed 15min candle over 30.25,,no reactions yet, but VIX warning still valid for swings, imo-
1145
3 min chart suggests we might need to wait another 24 candles for anything downside, thats a lot of candles if the pattern is correct ---chris
1143
its def a concern for bulls that vix not moving lower today after the open, as spx moved up, imo--chris
1140
vix approaching 3025 trgt, 3022 last---if it holds a 15min candle close over that, may close the gap---CHRIS
1121
if long, tightening stops here makes sense, imo---vix approaching 3025==CHRIS
1114
vix going sideways for its 4 hour period as expected, still a bit longer sideways, if it starts to move up before 1pm would be bullish vix==chris
1110
: VIX over 30.25 would be bearish for spx imo, intraday, last 29.99===but easier to buy vix instead of shorting, vxx, tvix==CHRIS
1101
wow the vxx and tvix are holding up intraday despite the spx runup--chris
1045
4960 filled on tvix==chris
1035
lim 49.60 i'll add more tvix, if it gets down there==chris
1027
ES testing its highs of day, but tvix not testing its lows,,,good for tvix==CHRIS
1019
then 57.50ish==chris
1017
tvix trgt 1 if able=54.50 for 8% profit if hit, from entry this morning==CHRIS
1005
1259.50--shorted, close enough
1003
theres near 1260 es short trgt==chris
956
1260 es poss short at resist--chris
951
VIX swing chart calls for sideways movement for next 4 hours--if instead the VIX starts to go higher, i might initiate new short positions in stocks or etfs, and long vxx tvix swing---chris
947
as they develop, watching the first 30 min vol bar, and 60 min vol bar, and compare to prior--CHRIS
937
in tvix again. 50.40.===chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
its the same setup as Nov 8 had, when i shorted spx at the close
338
nothing before the close will change the chart--chris
337
fwiw, my SPX SPY charts swing just changed to a bearish bias for next 8 trading hours---CHRIS
302
still have the first trgt on TVIX at 5440 from 50.00, last 5095, order in place to sell a piece of it, if it gets there===chris
257
added part 2 of oil short finally at 99.00 oil===chris
255
vix "should be" around 27 with spx here,,,but vix is at 30ish,,,bearish for spx swings imo--bullish for vxx tvixchris
120
i might add oil shorts: under 98, or at 99, nothing yet, swing--- (using /CL futures for analysis_)
100
LOL still nothing changed i see---24 candles still not done===CHRIS...VIX has closed 15min candle over 30.25,,no reactions yet, but VIX warning still valid for swings, imo-
1145
3 min chart suggests we might need to wait another 24 candles for anything downside, thats a lot of candles if the pattern is correct ---chris
1143
its def a concern for bulls that vix not moving lower today after the open, as spx moved up, imo--chris
1140
vix approaching 3025 trgt, 3022 last---if it holds a 15min candle close over that, may close the gap---CHRIS
1121
if long, tightening stops here makes sense, imo---vix approaching 3025==CHRIS
1114
vix going sideways for its 4 hour period as expected, still a bit longer sideways, if it starts to move up before 1pm would be bullish vix==chris
1110
: VIX over 30.25 would be bearish for spx imo, intraday, last 29.99===but easier to buy vix instead of shorting, vxx, tvix==CHRIS
1101
wow the vxx and tvix are holding up intraday despite the spx runup--chris
1045
4960 filled on tvix==chris
1035
lim 49.60 i'll add more tvix, if it gets down there==chris
1027
ES testing its highs of day, but tvix not testing its lows,,,good for tvix==CHRIS
1019
then 57.50ish==chris
1017
tvix trgt 1 if able=54.50 for 8% profit if hit, from entry this morning==CHRIS
1005
1259.50--shorted, close enough
1003
theres near 1260 es short trgt==chris
956
1260 es poss short at resist--chris
951
VIX swing chart calls for sideways movement for next 4 hours--if instead the VIX starts to go higher, i might initiate new short positions in stocks or etfs, and long vxx tvix swing---chris
947
as they develop, watching the first 30 min vol bar, and 60 min vol bar, and compare to prior--CHRIS
937
in tvix again. 50.40.===chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, November 10, 2011
Thurs thoughts
323
5775...5900 tvix trgts==chris
303
1235 and 1238 resis, under that bearish into close,,,over could stage a rally, bias down imo----chris
259
there she goes,,,1231 next :D
257
THERES 1234.50--watching for expected break but not confirmed...chris
254
BELOW the market ,,,at es 1233.75 short could work==chris
247
1234 es has held,,,but chances favor a break lower if it tests it again, may not survive another test, but for now is holding--chris
239
1234 trgt being tested now on this nasty candle--chris...now watching for green bull harami ,,or another red one
236
uh oh poss nsaty 3min ex candle forming now--watching how it closes this and next one--chris
226
but so far the 1234 es support holding--chris
222
if 1234/32 es breaks lower,,may not see over it for rest of day===chris
213
es held the 1234 support test at 1235,,but dangerous here,,needs to hold it,,,lower v poss on es---chris
211
crazy wild V on sco 3min (oil)---chris
206
bulls need a higher low,,they do not want to let it get to 1232 es again imo==chris
205
there it is, down,,,,under 1240 suggests 3 more red candles===if stays under--chris
203
this is potentially bad sign: premature bull failure on the 3min candle count here==chris,,shouldve had 2 green candles here
200
bulls need to break 1251 ES to get any real upside traction---chris
155
thats the third candle,,,now watching what happens===chris
150
heres the 1238 es test....watching support reaction here,,,breakable imo---chris
146
sideways bearish on 3min es now ,,next 4 candles on 3min chart==chris
145
1238 trgt test on es,,,needs to hold around there else lower imo...watching if it tests or not---chris
130
watch for pullback in es intraday off the 1242 resist--chris
119
added tvix 5500 here==chris
1236
tvix 60.00 trgt, l;ast 5915, then same higher ones==chris
1234
Market Maker reports suggest they are buying VXX, should be good for the related TVIX==CHRIS, bearish for spx
1148
bought tvix back 5770==chris
1135
5940 stop hit on tvix, only 8% profit on that piece,,still have 25% left==chris
1131
9 candles expired, needs more time to decide ES--chris
1129
here 5990 tvix could work, but high risk aggressive only---chris
1122
8 more minutes left, on prior 9 candle count--chris
1121
76% now
1120
1229 es needs to hold, else prob retest daily low, or make lower low--chris
1113
here at 1232 es,,,,74% confid sell prog alert----chris
1109
agressive could short 1232 es=chris
1106
5907 likely if 5940 breaks==chris
1105
close to 5940 stop---may get stopped out, tho holding atm, 5994 last tvix
1100
on this pattern, the next 9 candles or so on 3min, may determine if this is a trend down day
1059
3min chart suggests waiting at least 9 candles b4 long es, imo---chris,,see what it does in meantinme
1055
6100 is newly created support on tvix,,,if it can hold that would be v bullish on tvix,,,often does not hold the new support,,watching the expected chop in 61-62 area,,if 61 holds it may not look back until after 64===chris
1049
stretch tvix trgt is 69.00ish. last 6219==chris
1036
*5940 stop on 25%
1035
stop 5980 on 25% of tvix, 5730 on second remaingn 25%
1034
now watching 6100--6200 chop zone on tvix, watching reactions==chris
1032
tvix now near trgt #3 but not taking profits on this trgt,,,instead using manual trailing stop--only have half left, at 11% profit from 930 am==chris
1028
up 9-10%ish from 9am now,,,5730/5800 stop on remaining half tvix, shile awaiting higher targets,,,60.00 last==chris
1020
5750 supp,, 61.12 next resist trgt higher
1019
close enough to tvix 6040 trgt :)==still see the higher trgts, tighten stops==chris
1016
if es 1230 breaks, then 1220 trgt lower==CHRIS
958
tvix next 6040 trgt, last 5915 over 5870 trgt==chris
957
close enough...copnisdering TVIX trgt 1 hit, at 6.5%ish move up profit from entry,,holding 75% shares still---to keep selling at each trgt or near it==CHRIS
950
tvix 55.20 suppp...resist trgt 1 58.70, last 5755 from 5508 entry this morn===chris
948
3min bear shoot star-es==chris
941
5870 first trgt tvix, up to 65 later
931
in TVIX 5508==chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
5775...5900 tvix trgts==chris
303
1235 and 1238 resis, under that bearish into close,,,over could stage a rally, bias down imo----chris
259
there she goes,,,1231 next :D
257
THERES 1234.50--watching for expected break but not confirmed...chris
254
BELOW the market ,,,at es 1233.75 short could work==chris
247
1234 es has held,,,but chances favor a break lower if it tests it again, may not survive another test, but for now is holding--chris
239
1234 trgt being tested now on this nasty candle--chris...now watching for green bull harami ,,or another red one
236
uh oh poss nsaty 3min ex candle forming now--watching how it closes this and next one--chris
226
but so far the 1234 es support holding--chris
222
if 1234/32 es breaks lower,,may not see over it for rest of day===chris
213
es held the 1234 support test at 1235,,but dangerous here,,needs to hold it,,,lower v poss on es---chris
211
crazy wild V on sco 3min (oil)---chris
206
bulls need a higher low,,they do not want to let it get to 1232 es again imo==chris
205
there it is, down,,,,under 1240 suggests 3 more red candles===if stays under--chris
203
this is potentially bad sign: premature bull failure on the 3min candle count here==chris,,shouldve had 2 green candles here
200
bulls need to break 1251 ES to get any real upside traction---chris
155
thats the third candle,,,now watching what happens===chris
150
heres the 1238 es test....watching support reaction here,,,breakable imo---chris
146
sideways bearish on 3min es now ,,next 4 candles on 3min chart==chris
145
1238 trgt test on es,,,needs to hold around there else lower imo...watching if it tests or not---chris
130
watch for pullback in es intraday off the 1242 resist--chris
119
added tvix 5500 here==chris
1236
tvix 60.00 trgt, l;ast 5915, then same higher ones==chris
1234
Market Maker reports suggest they are buying VXX, should be good for the related TVIX==CHRIS, bearish for spx
1148
bought tvix back 5770==chris
1135
5940 stop hit on tvix, only 8% profit on that piece,,still have 25% left==chris
1131
9 candles expired, needs more time to decide ES--chris
1129
here 5990 tvix could work, but high risk aggressive only---chris
1122
8 more minutes left, on prior 9 candle count--chris
1121
76% now
1120
1229 es needs to hold, else prob retest daily low, or make lower low--chris
1113
here at 1232 es,,,,74% confid sell prog alert----chris
1109
agressive could short 1232 es=chris
1106
5907 likely if 5940 breaks==chris
1105
close to 5940 stop---may get stopped out, tho holding atm, 5994 last tvix
1100
on this pattern, the next 9 candles or so on 3min, may determine if this is a trend down day
1059
3min chart suggests waiting at least 9 candles b4 long es, imo---chris,,see what it does in meantinme
1055
6100 is newly created support on tvix,,,if it can hold that would be v bullish on tvix,,,often does not hold the new support,,watching the expected chop in 61-62 area,,if 61 holds it may not look back until after 64===chris
1049
stretch tvix trgt is 69.00ish. last 6219==chris
1036
*5940 stop on 25%
1035
stop 5980 on 25% of tvix, 5730 on second remaingn 25%
1034
now watching 6100--6200 chop zone on tvix, watching reactions==chris
1032
tvix now near trgt #3 but not taking profits on this trgt,,,instead using manual trailing stop--only have half left, at 11% profit from 930 am==chris
1028
up 9-10%ish from 9am now,,,5730/5800 stop on remaining half tvix, shile awaiting higher targets,,,60.00 last==chris
1020
5750 supp,, 61.12 next resist trgt higher
1019
close enough to tvix 6040 trgt :)==still see the higher trgts, tighten stops==chris
1016
if es 1230 breaks, then 1220 trgt lower==CHRIS
958
tvix next 6040 trgt, last 5915 over 5870 trgt==chris
957
close enough...copnisdering TVIX trgt 1 hit, at 6.5%ish move up profit from entry,,holding 75% shares still---to keep selling at each trgt or near it==CHRIS
950
tvix 55.20 suppp...resist trgt 1 58.70, last 5755 from 5508 entry this morn===chris
948
3min bear shoot star-es==chris
941
5870 first trgt tvix, up to 65 later
931
in TVIX 5508==chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, November 9, 2011
Wednesday thoughts
344
DX remains over the trgt to stay over 78, atm,,watching==CHRIS
305
esp if DX is over 7800 at 4:15pm today==chris
304
bnc possible tomorrow, but i may short the close,,,see lower spx now conming==CHRIS
237
then 79ish and 81ish trgts on dollar DX
235
7830 us dollar DX trgt test of 9/12 high (may have just tested), then higher on break over it==chris
232
as the dollar stages its expected rally, EUO up 4.3% today, UUP up 1.83==CHRIS
226
stopped out of MRK, took loss of 1%osh==CHRIS
209
.66 stop (below .67)
208
added mrk .75, stop .67,,,low risk,,,either support holds or i'm out with loss===chris
1102
MRK not down much today, only down 0.09% vs 2.38% down for SPY==chris,, a few cents higher and MRK will be green vs yest
1059
35.22 MRK trgt to sell to take profits from 34.30 if it hits that today==CHRIS
1030
long in MRK 34.30 instead of SPY==chris,,using mrk dow component instead==chris
1022
if ES is over 1240 at 1031am, would be bullish imo for higher bounce, per 3min and 15 60 min charts==chris
1003
stopped out, took profits on shorts, may go lower but a 32 point drop is a lot--CHRIS
1001
at 1241 now,,may get stopped out, 1241.25 is stop
959
1241.25 es stop for shorts, 1238.75 last=chris
956
sco moving now, up 4.63 % from yest==chris
953
Watching 1237 and 1232 ES trgts lower, may take profit on second half of shorts there (from yest entry), stop tightened in case of sudden surge higher to protect profits--CHRIS
Possible setup to reverse and enter long later today, no entry yet, no confirmed setup
942
next DX us dollar futures trgt 7830--if it hurdles that dollar should rally nicely higher and push oil lower
939
still have short oil, red atm but still see lower oil, higher sco--oil is lower this morn, sco higher,,have not added to sco, may add later today--CHRIS
7:12a.m.
ES is down hard now 28 points. Took profits on shorts entered yesterday for half the position. Holding half still.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
DX remains over the trgt to stay over 78, atm,,watching==CHRIS
305
esp if DX is over 7800 at 4:15pm today==chris
304
bnc possible tomorrow, but i may short the close,,,see lower spx now conming==CHRIS
237
then 79ish and 81ish trgts on dollar DX
235
7830 us dollar DX trgt test of 9/12 high (may have just tested), then higher on break over it==chris
232
as the dollar stages its expected rally, EUO up 4.3% today, UUP up 1.83==CHRIS
226
stopped out of MRK, took loss of 1%osh==CHRIS
209
.66 stop (below .67)
208
added mrk .75, stop .67,,,low risk,,,either support holds or i'm out with loss===chris
1102
MRK not down much today, only down 0.09% vs 2.38% down for SPY==chris,, a few cents higher and MRK will be green vs yest
1059
35.22 MRK trgt to sell to take profits from 34.30 if it hits that today==CHRIS
1030
long in MRK 34.30 instead of SPY==chris,,using mrk dow component instead==chris
1022
if ES is over 1240 at 1031am, would be bullish imo for higher bounce, per 3min and 15 60 min charts==chris
1003
stopped out, took profits on shorts, may go lower but a 32 point drop is a lot--CHRIS
1001
at 1241 now,,may get stopped out, 1241.25 is stop
959
1241.25 es stop for shorts, 1238.75 last=chris
956
sco moving now, up 4.63 % from yest==chris
953
Watching 1237 and 1232 ES trgts lower, may take profit on second half of shorts there (from yest entry), stop tightened in case of sudden surge higher to protect profits--CHRIS
Possible setup to reverse and enter long later today, no entry yet, no confirmed setup
942
next DX us dollar futures trgt 7830--if it hurdles that dollar should rally nicely higher and push oil lower
939
still have short oil, red atm but still see lower oil, higher sco--oil is lower this morn, sco higher,,have not added to sco, may add later today--CHRIS
7:12a.m.
ES is down hard now 28 points. Took profits on shorts entered yesterday for half the position. Holding half still.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, November 8, 2011
Tues thoughts
1252
next 3 candles on 3min es should be bearish, if this pattern plays out==CHRIS
1248
sell alert now at 78% confid from 74%==CHRIS
1246
possible SPY bear dark cloud cover or bear engulfing forming on the daily candle, pre-mature, just something to watch,,,if we get engulfing i will likely add shorts 355pm-ish==CHRIS
1229
es 1257--sell prog alert at 74% confid, less reliable on this volume low tho--chris
1226
watching next 6 candles on ES 3min chart==chris
1224
sideways bearish bias on spx imo for next 4 hours or so, unless charts change---chris
1215
1257.50 shorting ES==chris
1123
Oil (CL futures, USO etf) is getting turbulent and looking like its almost ready to correct lower. Allthough SCO is up 0.65% higher today, My oil short via SCO is still red atm, but i am holding it longer. I did not add more SCO yesterday, I may add to the position today. Also looking at a possible long entry US Dollar (via UUP or similar, or EUO).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
next 3 candles on 3min es should be bearish, if this pattern plays out==CHRIS
1248
sell alert now at 78% confid from 74%==CHRIS
1246
possible SPY bear dark cloud cover or bear engulfing forming on the daily candle, pre-mature, just something to watch,,,if we get engulfing i will likely add shorts 355pm-ish==CHRIS
1229
es 1257--sell prog alert at 74% confid, less reliable on this volume low tho--chris
1226
watching next 6 candles on ES 3min chart==chris
1224
sideways bearish bias on spx imo for next 4 hours or so, unless charts change---chris
1215
1257.50 shorting ES==chris
1123
Oil (CL futures, USO etf) is getting turbulent and looking like its almost ready to correct lower. Allthough SCO is up 0.65% higher today, My oil short via SCO is still red atm, but i am holding it longer. I did not add more SCO yesterday, I may add to the position today. Also looking at a possible long entry US Dollar (via UUP or similar, or EUO).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, November 7, 2011
Monday thoughts
155
es long 1242 es stop 1240.75==chris
126
es spx spy sso stopped out for now, small profit on scalp,,,will re-eval reentry---chris
119
tightend up stop to 0.5 points on es scalp to protect ===chris
113
lim ES 1244 i will sell the es scalp from 1238 and 1243 and re-eval later for re-entry in swings==chris
1224
adding part 2 here es 1238-chris
1153
es bearish intraday under 1247-needs to get over that for real traction higher==chris,, the long at 1243 is early entry
1148
1243 long ES--chris
1051
took profits on PAG 2130, didnt hit trgt but not moving right, so taking the small profit==chris
1029
Bounce alsert intraday here at es 1248, at 74% confid==chris,,, needs 78% and 85% to move=
1017
in the 6th candle now ,,watching if the pattern follows thru with a few basing candles, then bounce up on ES,,atm pattern working--CHRIS
1013
2 more candles on 3min--chris
1001
watching next 6 candles on 3min ES for sideways down, then bounce, then poss shortable bounce after 6-18 candles depending on charts atm
1000
PAG penske short marginally small profit atm, still holding longer, tho it hasnt moved yet,,needs to do something in next day or so
957
: i mentioned it was an early entry on oil,,shouldve waited but it gave a false breakout on 60min=chris
955
conversely oil is higher, so short red atm, but holding as i still see a correction in oil and dollar, may add more sco
953
ES up .34% this morn, still in the "upward bias for 4 hours longer" posted on 2:26 PM Friday.
The bias may be trunctated, watching charts. Over 1250 intraday bullish imo,, under that may crack.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
es long 1242 es stop 1240.75==chris
126
es spx spy sso stopped out for now, small profit on scalp,,,will re-eval reentry---chris
119
tightend up stop to 0.5 points on es scalp to protect ===chris
113
lim ES 1244 i will sell the es scalp from 1238 and 1243 and re-eval later for re-entry in swings==chris
1224
adding part 2 here es 1238-chris
1153
es bearish intraday under 1247-needs to get over that for real traction higher==chris,, the long at 1243 is early entry
1148
1243 long ES--chris
1051
took profits on PAG 2130, didnt hit trgt but not moving right, so taking the small profit==chris
1029
Bounce alsert intraday here at es 1248, at 74% confid==chris,,, needs 78% and 85% to move=
1017
in the 6th candle now ,,watching if the pattern follows thru with a few basing candles, then bounce up on ES,,atm pattern working--CHRIS
1013
2 more candles on 3min--chris
1001
watching next 6 candles on 3min ES for sideways down, then bounce, then poss shortable bounce after 6-18 candles depending on charts atm
1000
PAG penske short marginally small profit atm, still holding longer, tho it hasnt moved yet,,needs to do something in next day or so
957
: i mentioned it was an early entry on oil,,shouldve waited but it gave a false breakout on 60min=chris
955
conversely oil is higher, so short red atm, but holding as i still see a correction in oil and dollar, may add more sco
953
ES up .34% this morn, still in the "upward bias for 4 hours longer" posted on 2:26 PM Friday.
The bias may be trunctated, watching charts. Over 1250 intraday bullish imo,, under that may crack.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, November 4, 2011
Friday thoughts
322
PAG cracking again :)==chris
311
if 124350 es break suggests move to low of day or lower--chris
237
if es hits 1246.75 then will go to 78% confid, from the 1250 signal--chris
234
es sell alert 74% confid at 1250 es===needs 85% to move--chris
226
the could change before the close, right now my swing charts suggest that SPY SPX need another 4 hours of bias to downside for monday, even if it moves higher today,
225
mini bull dbl bot W on SCO 3min,,but its only on 3min chart so isnt as strong--chris
219
the vol is too low now, i'm waiting until it picks up to decide on more trades,,,the only reason i entered oil with this vol is because i was watching it last few days waiting---chris
---should know more at 3pm
211
such low vol makes it hard to judge,,i think we move lower on es spx tho, into close---chris
but i'll hold the PAG short from yesterday, having taken 5%ish profit on spxu already earlier today--CHRIS
206
SCO calls or USO puts could work imo, tho i'm trading the underlying sco--chris
200
added part 2 of SCO buy 44.20ish for bear oil short swing--CHRIS
1213
60 min ES does have a bull hammer but its unconfirmed, and i think any rally if it is confirmed will be short lived---CHRIS
1209
sell signal warnings on the 3min chart imo, intraday, here at es 1242---CHRIS
1156
they could always ram ES SPX higher, but imo failure to go higher in the post-1030 AM timeframe today, with low vol, is bearish==CHRIS
1152
sco holding time est 1-5 days, prob 3 or less
1151
sco may go lower first, oil may still rally, but want to participate,,been watching a few days==chris
1150
bought sco, starter position, may add more, 4485ish, SCO is bear short oil--CHRIS
1037
manually trailing the stop on 3min chart now,,,to protect 5%+ profits----wont post all stops to avoid clutter,,=CHRIS
1032
still looking to short oil...has move down a little today,,,ideal setup would be lower, then short the bounce, swing---chris
1026
bounce on es poss here at the 1239 trgt,,if doesnt make over 1244,,es in trouble--chris
1023
4.5% on half of spxu from yest,,,holding other half,,,took profit at posted target---chris
1020
may take half off at 1239 es ,,,watching---chris
1019
1241 broke,,, ;) ,,,1239 es next trgt,,,if that breaks should get the 1231/32===chris
1015
a break of 1241 will invalidate the 3min sideways up bias on the 3min,,,a failed rally even if it goes higher--chris,, if 1241 es breaks, need to reset the candle count===chris
1014
if ES under 1250 at 10:33AM, would be bearish intraday, imo---watching 3 min candles----
1012
3min es suggests sideways higher bias, but rally likely to fail given patten on 15min imo---chris, at least on first try
1010
spxu from yest entry now at 3.5% profit,,,tightening stop on half,,,still will hold second half for the lower ES trgt 1231ish===CHRIS
1005
nice gentle bearish push (vs pierce below and pop higher) on SPY 15 min boll bands,,,suggests lower also
1001
I might short oil today before 3:58PM, been watching last few day---chris
940
we have a possible 4 hour down sideways bias setting up on spx es, not confirmed yet but forming--chris,, i would wait until 1000am or 1030am before new long entries, may go lower for 4 hours imo--chris
938
just missed the first PAG profit target on short, so lowering trgt now to 2060 instead, may go thru the first trgt to the second, if not will look to take smaller profit==CHRIS
935
1231 ES trgt if able
933
2092 PAG trgt
931
We gapped down as expected, may take profits on spx shorts and PAG shorts within first hour, or coming minutes,,watching charts for exit---CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
PAG cracking again :)==chris
311
if 124350 es break suggests move to low of day or lower--chris
237
if es hits 1246.75 then will go to 78% confid, from the 1250 signal--chris
234
es sell alert 74% confid at 1250 es===needs 85% to move--chris
226
the could change before the close, right now my swing charts suggest that SPY SPX need another 4 hours of bias to downside for monday, even if it moves higher today,
225
mini bull dbl bot W on SCO 3min,,but its only on 3min chart so isnt as strong--chris
219
the vol is too low now, i'm waiting until it picks up to decide on more trades,,,the only reason i entered oil with this vol is because i was watching it last few days waiting---chris
---should know more at 3pm
211
such low vol makes it hard to judge,,i think we move lower on es spx tho, into close---chris
but i'll hold the PAG short from yesterday, having taken 5%ish profit on spxu already earlier today--CHRIS
206
SCO calls or USO puts could work imo, tho i'm trading the underlying sco--chris
200
added part 2 of SCO buy 44.20ish for bear oil short swing--CHRIS
1213
60 min ES does have a bull hammer but its unconfirmed, and i think any rally if it is confirmed will be short lived---CHRIS
1209
sell signal warnings on the 3min chart imo, intraday, here at es 1242---CHRIS
1156
they could always ram ES SPX higher, but imo failure to go higher in the post-1030 AM timeframe today, with low vol, is bearish==CHRIS
1152
sco holding time est 1-5 days, prob 3 or less
1151
sco may go lower first, oil may still rally, but want to participate,,been watching a few days==chris
1150
bought sco, starter position, may add more, 4485ish, SCO is bear short oil--CHRIS
1037
manually trailing the stop on 3min chart now,,,to protect 5%+ profits----wont post all stops to avoid clutter,,=CHRIS
1032
still looking to short oil...has move down a little today,,,ideal setup would be lower, then short the bounce, swing---chris
1026
bounce on es poss here at the 1239 trgt,,if doesnt make over 1244,,es in trouble--chris
1023
4.5% on half of spxu from yest,,,holding other half,,,took profit at posted target---chris
1020
may take half off at 1239 es ,,,watching---chris
1019
1241 broke,,, ;) ,,,1239 es next trgt,,,if that breaks should get the 1231/32===chris
1015
a break of 1241 will invalidate the 3min sideways up bias on the 3min,,,a failed rally even if it goes higher--chris,, if 1241 es breaks, need to reset the candle count===chris
1014
if ES under 1250 at 10:33AM, would be bearish intraday, imo---watching 3 min candles----
1012
3min es suggests sideways higher bias, but rally likely to fail given patten on 15min imo---chris, at least on first try
1010
spxu from yest entry now at 3.5% profit,,,tightening stop on half,,,still will hold second half for the lower ES trgt 1231ish===CHRIS
1005
nice gentle bearish push (vs pierce below and pop higher) on SPY 15 min boll bands,,,suggests lower also
1001
I might short oil today before 3:58PM, been watching last few day---chris
940
we have a possible 4 hour down sideways bias setting up on spx es, not confirmed yet but forming--chris,, i would wait until 1000am or 1030am before new long entries, may go lower for 4 hours imo--chris
938
just missed the first PAG profit target on short, so lowering trgt now to 2060 instead, may go thru the first trgt to the second, if not will look to take smaller profit==CHRIS
935
1231 ES trgt if able
933
2092 PAG trgt
931
We gapped down as expected, may take profits on spx shorts and PAG shorts within first hour, or coming minutes,,watching charts for exit---CHRIS
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, November 3, 2011
Thurs thoughts
343
1259 es,,,shorted to hold overnite===chris
350
see the big red candel on 60 min, followed by small green ones in rally? suggests spy is tired---chris
344
among other things, PAG has bear hammer (was harami earlier in day), at a time when spx seems tired on upside---chris,,,hence the short
341
took profits on honda,,,,,,,,,,,shorted PAG 21.56ish
330
by 358 PM, i plan to take profits on the HMC honda long, and to also enter a short of PAG, unsure of exact prices atm but will do by 358PM
306
Raised lim to 22.14 for new swing short on PAG if filled, will continue to adjust b4 the close today---chris
237
i dont know if i will get filled, but will short PAG 21.97,,,2140 last==chris
210
HMC honda approaching the 3050 trgt--the real action will come if it can break over 3050--watching reactinos here---CHRIS
136
/DX us dollar suggests that longs should be cautious here, tighten stops,,, dollar approaching support and if it rallies commodities and spx should fall---chris-- current .DX us dollar candle looks nasty but watching to see if it reverses or not
119
HMC step one accomplished: broke .25,,, now needs to break over .50 for first trgt higher--chris
118
es just hit its 1252 trgt,,,still have same higher trgts,,,resist test reaction impt here to see rejection or not,,,stall is ok if not vicious else could turn bearish===chris
1255
HMC is lagging the spx here today, but giving more time,,,if it clears the 2 resist areas it can move v fast,,theres an intraday gap up on the 3min chart also---chris
1251
1255 would not be a swing short area, tho its resist, imo (could scalp short it but will pass for now)===chris
1248
from 1217pm, still valid: es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris
1247
78% confid,,,buy program for es alert--chris,,needs 85% to really move but often 78% presents approp entry (intraday)
1241
SPY 60min chart: 5MA over the 15 MA, with 5 MA support at 124.60, last 124.93,,horiz supp 124.45 also, atm===CHRIS
1235
15min chart gave an extension: another 4 candles to wait b4 short, imo===chris,,,60min unchanged
1231
the last 5 candles on ES 15min chart are textbook bullish rising 3 methods continuation pattern. watching to see if it causes higher ES spx or not via confirmation.---chris
picture http://www.hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Rising%20Three%20Methods.htm
1221
if es 15min candle next closes over 1246, will have bull rising 3 methods continuation pattern, still forming and uncconfired, pattern would be broken on break of 15min support--CHRIS
1218
under 1242==could pb lower---chris
1217
es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris
1212
15min chart forming the 5 candle bull continuation pattern higher: rising methods, still baking, unconfirmed---modified pattern sometimes will only use 4 candles not 5
1208
3min spy suggest break higher could happen in next 4 candles/12min---chris
1136
us dollar weak atm, but chart suggest after 3-4 hours, it may present a long opp dollar, which would be bearish for spx and oil---chris
1131
15min ES says wait 4 more bars b4 short, imo--chris
1126
looking for entry to short oil, via sco--no setup yet but might enter before 3:58 PM today---BUT no entry yet, oil is at resist test and could surge higher, but if dollar gets stronger next few days, oil should fall harder, esp if the resist holds
1117
i have order to sell half (keep half) to take profits on HMC honda swing entered yest: lim sell 30.98, stop 29.11, l;ast 30.10==chris
1104
poss new swing longs in AGD JCP SRE EXAS EDZ TWM tza===CHRIS
poss new swing shorts in KMB HGSI
No entries yet, that's just the focus list atm, may change
EDZ TZA "longs" are actually bear etfs
1049
Yest at the close i mentinoed that SPY 60min chart was biased in the bull sideways up for 4 more trading hours,,,still in that timeframe, waiting until it expires before any short, unless chart surges or changes--CHRIS
1018
look at daily ES candle: huge doji-like with long tails both up and down---as the MACD hist near 0---chris
1000
1238 es test here v impt intraday, may bounce but trying to break lower,,,1238 is the prior breakout point---chris
955
just one indicator, but daily MACD hist on SPY is ready to cross under 0, possibly today,,,BUT the day of the cross and following day(s) often are chop whipsaw days, historically---but cant base decisions on 1 indicator, price is king and trumps all else
951
my charts say swing short spx setup may come today or tomorrow, imo,,,still setting up and baking---CHRIS
943
Still have HMC long from yest. I needs to hurdle over 30.50 to get upside traction to higher targets. last 30.10. still a valid long setup imo, may add more to this position later today depending on charts. same targets and stops as yesterday/
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
1259 es,,,shorted to hold overnite===chris
350
see the big red candel on 60 min, followed by small green ones in rally? suggests spy is tired---chris
344
among other things, PAG has bear hammer (was harami earlier in day), at a time when spx seems tired on upside---chris,,,hence the short
341
took profits on honda,,,,,,,,,,,shorted PAG 21.56ish
330
by 358 PM, i plan to take profits on the HMC honda long, and to also enter a short of PAG, unsure of exact prices atm but will do by 358PM
306
Raised lim to 22.14 for new swing short on PAG if filled, will continue to adjust b4 the close today---chris
237
i dont know if i will get filled, but will short PAG 21.97,,,2140 last==chris
210
HMC honda approaching the 3050 trgt--the real action will come if it can break over 3050--watching reactinos here---CHRIS
136
/DX us dollar suggests that longs should be cautious here, tighten stops,,, dollar approaching support and if it rallies commodities and spx should fall---chris-- current .DX us dollar candle looks nasty but watching to see if it reverses or not
119
HMC step one accomplished: broke .25,,, now needs to break over .50 for first trgt higher--chris
118
es just hit its 1252 trgt,,,still have same higher trgts,,,resist test reaction impt here to see rejection or not,,,stall is ok if not vicious else could turn bearish===chris
1255
HMC is lagging the spx here today, but giving more time,,,if it clears the 2 resist areas it can move v fast,,theres an intraday gap up on the 3min chart also---chris
1251
1255 would not be a swing short area, tho its resist, imo (could scalp short it but will pass for now)===chris
1248
from 1217pm, still valid: es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris
1247
78% confid,,,buy program for es alert--chris,,needs 85% to really move but often 78% presents approp entry (intraday)
1241
SPY 60min chart: 5MA over the 15 MA, with 5 MA support at 124.60, last 124.93,,horiz supp 124.45 also, atm===CHRIS
1235
15min chart gave an extension: another 4 candles to wait b4 short, imo===chris,,,60min unchanged
1231
the last 5 candles on ES 15min chart are textbook bullish rising 3 methods continuation pattern. watching to see if it causes higher ES spx or not via confirmation.---chris
picture http://www.hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Rising%20Three%20Methods.htm
1221
if es 15min candle next closes over 1246, will have bull rising 3 methods continuation pattern, still forming and uncconfired, pattern would be broken on break of 15min support--CHRIS
1218
under 1242==could pb lower---chris
1217
es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris
1212
15min chart forming the 5 candle bull continuation pattern higher: rising methods, still baking, unconfirmed---modified pattern sometimes will only use 4 candles not 5
1208
3min spy suggest break higher could happen in next 4 candles/12min---chris
1136
us dollar weak atm, but chart suggest after 3-4 hours, it may present a long opp dollar, which would be bearish for spx and oil---chris
1131
15min ES says wait 4 more bars b4 short, imo--chris
1126
looking for entry to short oil, via sco--no setup yet but might enter before 3:58 PM today---BUT no entry yet, oil is at resist test and could surge higher, but if dollar gets stronger next few days, oil should fall harder, esp if the resist holds
1117
i have order to sell half (keep half) to take profits on HMC honda swing entered yest: lim sell 30.98, stop 29.11, l;ast 30.10==chris
1104
poss new swing longs in AGD JCP SRE EXAS EDZ TWM tza===CHRIS
poss new swing shorts in KMB HGSI
No entries yet, that's just the focus list atm, may change
EDZ TZA "longs" are actually bear etfs
1049
Yest at the close i mentinoed that SPY 60min chart was biased in the bull sideways up for 4 more trading hours,,,still in that timeframe, waiting until it expires before any short, unless chart surges or changes--CHRIS
1018
look at daily ES candle: huge doji-like with long tails both up and down---as the MACD hist near 0---chris
1000
1238 es test here v impt intraday, may bounce but trying to break lower,,,1238 is the prior breakout point---chris
955
just one indicator, but daily MACD hist on SPY is ready to cross under 0, possibly today,,,BUT the day of the cross and following day(s) often are chop whipsaw days, historically---but cant base decisions on 1 indicator, price is king and trumps all else
951
my charts say swing short spx setup may come today or tomorrow, imo,,,still setting up and baking---CHRIS
943
Still have HMC long from yest. I needs to hurdle over 30.50 to get upside traction to higher targets. last 30.10. still a valid long setup imo, may add more to this position later today depending on charts. same targets and stops as yesterday/
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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