Link to trading portfolio of posted trades

Trades can be viewed at the links below. The sample portfolio is designed for smaller starting accounts of $30 instead of the typical starting size of 100,000.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

OR

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


The link above is designed for trading games.  The purpose of my game is to test the feasibility of having about 10 open positions in a trading account of 30k. The game is set up for 100k cash but only 30k is used at any given time. I chose to use 100k because the game does not always properly assign margin, especially on intraday trades. So the game says it's 100k of cash but only 30k plus margin is actually used. If you look at the position sizes and orders, you will notice that most swing positions are $2,000-- $5,000 each while intraday scalps have a wider range, sometimes between $10--20k using margin.

The portfolio does not necessarily represent the same number of shares that I purchase in my own personal real money account(s). I may purchase additional stocks in my personal account, or may elect to not personally purchase some of the simulated trades.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Updated: Possible new trades, with charts

Monday UPDATE

Charts below are from Friday.

I might buy PANL long on Tuesday tomorrow.

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Friday
Considering positions in these stocks. Will do further analysis on them, and watch for intraday buying opportunities on Monday and soon after.

SHORTS - Shorts.  no charts on these yet.  These were down on higher volume Friday.  MMYT, CHIM,EWP,  COST, DB, ANGO, SGK, MHGC, LFC, CS, CSC, IART, short ULE (or long EUO),  JO, HAO, UEFN, 

Other SHORTS STOCKS: LTD, CVH, THI, TDC, CATO, ST, G, BBVA,

SHORTS ETFS: COW, CHIM, 

LONGS are below, with charts.

HLF, RRC, DDS, PANL have volume over 1 million.

CRR Long, may be ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0.

UA. Long, ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0. Higher Low on Stoch.

HLF. Long.

BJRI. LONG.

PANL. Long.

DDS.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

AA Short (possible entry)

AA - Considering SHORT at 8.77-- 8.98 area, if it can get a bounce on 60 min chart, possible entry on Friday per timing analysis.

AA Chart -- Double Click the chart for a larger view

Chart shows a bear coil that broke to downside, but the 60 min chart also shows a bullish falling wedge. So lower is expected but the wedge warns that the shorts must be monitored and exited at the right time. But there is still plenty of room in the wedge for lower prices, as long as the resistance levels hold. Not ready to short this yet, but will consider short on the next bounce, if it comes. No huge daily rsi bull divergence to worry about, if it looked like the Aug--Oct diverg I would consider long instead (actually I was long AA back then near Oct 6).  Timing analysis suggests that in about 4 hours AA may bounce and start to level off (putting it as a possible Friday short entry).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Shorted DOW at 10,754

More details later.... I Shorted DOW at 10,754... was a target since July 2009

This is a position I exepct to hold for weeks / months unless stopped out.

i'm still short here at R, but my work suggests IF IF DOW sustains over 10,754, then approx dow 12,700ish...dont have exact number... as a blowoff type of top ... it has not proven this yet, I consider the 10754 to be R still for now






* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Multi-month position: shorted the QQQQ

I might add more shorts today, for multi-month hold.

Yesterday on the rally to the 50 MA i ADDED to my multi-month position by shorting the qqqq. If funds are available, for multi-month positions, I prefer to just short QQQQ instead of using the 2x 3x etfs like qid and typ, though typ and qid work too.

Of course, stops are in place, very loose stops at 47.27. Other places to put stops would be 45.17 (conservative) or 45.87.  If using the lower stops, I would allow myself to get stopped out, then re-enter if merited. I'm using the 45.17 MENTAL stop for my swing shorts (I will exit the short at a loss IF IT SUSTAINS OVER 45.17, not just on a minor piercing on low intraday volume).

Just some ideas



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

A ONCE A YEAR bearish event, happening now

I have many bearish indicators going on right now. From a longer term perspective, look at the chart below.

We are experiencing right now a ONCE A YEAR event that marks an excellent opportunity for swing and multi-month position trades.

The chart below is the more powerful WEEKLY chart of QQQQ. Charts for SPX DOW are similar.
The most salient thing about the chart is the MACD.  Notice that I've numbered 1,2,3,4,5,6. Last week, we experienced an UPTICK on the MACD histogram. Is that bullish? Well, notice that the NORMAL PATTERN when the MACD hist falls below zero is a small valley that goes down, then up. But notice also that THE LARGER VALLEY normally follows. I believe this is what we are experiencing here. Notice that 2 <1, 4<3, and 6<5???

This is one reason, among many, that I believe that the DOW will not make it over 10,754 in 2010, that the DOW high for the year is in (DOW charts are similar).

Also notice the following (bearish):
1. Bearish RSI dbl top on 9/14 and 1/11 with RSI bear failure swing below the 58 RSI (It's previous low).

2. Bearish RSI divergence on 9/14 and 1/11. Note that prices rocketed while the RSI only double topped..

Bullish warnings on the chart:
3.) Stoch hooking back up... does it want to re-visit 80? If so, then we would likely see a double top or even a higher high for the year.

4. The RSI has a failure swing (bearish) but it remains over 50 and it is trying to hook back up.

However, for 3 and 4, remember that this is a weekly chart, and it's Monday, so this could all change by end of this week.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

FAZ swing possible, followed by long term position

FAZ or short XLF is possible as a swing soon, and EVEN long term (see weekly chart for long term).

I'm close to a swing setup in long FAZ (which is 3X short the financials). The FAZ / XLF charts are much cleaner, less noisy, than the SPX charts, so FAZ is my current choice of trading vehicle. Further, I was using TZA before as well, but TZA is not ready yet... FAZ is clearer, for me.

FAZ TARGETS: 20.45, 20.64, 20.87, 2130, 21.41, 22.12

FAZ longer term target is 32.40 with stops at 29.76, 24.63, 27.46, 28.66. LONGER TERM TARGETS are dependent on many factors, which could change. The longer term targets should be viewed as a bullish scenario. There is a bearish scenario also.

The longer term targets might need to be re-calculated because of de-leveraging of the 3x etf. Later, I will calculate these better using the XLF.

             60 min chart

              Daily Chart

Note the weakness in the financials using the WEEKLY XLF chart

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

updated.... Short CMCSA

Wedn. 5:09 PM

For today, the UNH (chart below from earlier) worked well. CMCSA was not ready today for a trade.

CMCSA is in a sym triangle, which could break tomorrow. If it breaks lower, I might initiate a short position. Looking at the daily chart, this could be the early stages of a very large downtrend. But, for now, I'm just taking the swing targets on the way down, one at a time. Of course, this could decide to break higher tomorrow or in the coming days, if so, then a total re-eval is needed.

Notice the series of lower highs and lower lows, indicated by the small horizontal yellow lines. I did not put the lines on the exact price, to avoid clutter.

Here is an updated 60min chart.

Tuesday
Clearly CMCSA 60 min chart needs to settle down before shorting this. Idea only for now. If the 60min starts to turn down, then it will complement the daily and then look like a good short around 15.20 / 15.90. Also need to be cautious of possible Bull Falling Wedge 60min, but that still has downside and might convert to down channel.


UNH short might be better (see post below) ... will be looking at both in addition to the TZA.

Double click on chart to see full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

TZA possible swing entry

The RUT still under the 595/606....may buy some more tza today/tomorrow with a stop set, depending on how the charts look.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

UNH Swing short (possible)

TRADE: Shorting UNH 28.70 limit if filled, last 2865. Will start as daytrade and keep as swing if merited.


Possible swing short (not entered yet)

SHORT UNH around 28.80 / 29 but confirm using the 60 min.... stop 30.23, 29.77, 29.47 or 29.27

Click on the chart to view full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

TRADE: SWING FAZ at 20.44 stop 18.96

Trade:  Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. faz could test 20.30, even break and go lower, but i'm fine with this for now.

5:02PM update:
Part of the reason for the entry on Friday was that the ES futures, pre-market, hit 1067, but recovered higher before Friday's open. So the 1067 is vulnerable to a re-test, although of course prices could move higher first. A look at the SPX will not show such a severe break of 1085, since it held in the SPX. But in the ES, that 1083 was broken and dropped to 1067 before recovering.

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I have added another swing trade to my previous ones (still open).

On Friday's Daily Ramblings post, I noted that I entered FAZ at 20.44 stop 18.96 for now. Am putting it in a separate post here to make it easier for me to track.

Trade:  Swing... bought FAZ at 20.44. Stop 18.96 for now. faz could test 20.30, even break and go lower, but i'm fine with this for now.

Is the FAZ an early entry? Will Monday's prices rally (causing FAZ to drop)? I don't know, but the charts are suggesting lower SPX and higher FAZ in the coming days ahead. Unless the charts change, any SPX rally is an opportunity to re-short or add to shorts. Charts suggest that Monday could go either way, so I've entered here in order to participate.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

What next for swings?

I know that this sounds surprising to many, but for now, I will continue to short the rallies UNLESS the charts change, and then I'll join the "long side" club. The "short the rallies" strategy has been profitable (despite the last loss I took from Friday's ill timed entry). Now of course, if the charts change, then I'll switch to bullish.

They could change tomorrow in fact, but for now, that's my strategy. It's been working.

Right now, I do not have any swing positions. I was able to short very close to the high in SPX today (using tza) but I decided to cover the short before the end of day mini-rally. However, because the charts are confused, throwing different signals in various timeframes, I decided to close out the trade in TZA profitably, selling it for profits of 4.5%, 4.07%, 2.70%, and 1.1% (I sold it in 4 pieces).

Tomorrow I will search for opportunities to enter new swings, although I don't know if the setup will come tomorrow or not. If it does not, then I'll wait.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SDS swing... (updated 8:23 PM)

I'll add more details to this post later... here's what i have now...

Many might wonder why I chose to hold SDS overnight as a swing.

When I look at the chart below, my interpretation is "there is a possible long entry setting up, but the setup is not complete". Also, the long signal, if complete, would be a contr-trend trade with the initial expectation of capturing a bounce only (since the current 60 min trend is down).

Many are expecting a Head And Shoulders to develop. And yes, the pattern certainly suggests that. But it is speculative, since it is not even formed yet.

So, lets speculate some more. What if the HS pattern does not fully develop? Notice that there is also a down channel in th 60min chart below (a smaller down channel inside the larger one). That could also be what's happening. Further, we might have seen a minor break of a bear flag, and then a backtest of the break (when SPX moved up later Friday).  The backtests are quite common. That is why I decided to keep my SDS over the weekend.

If the HS does not develop, charts suggest a possible move to 1067 directly from here (see chart 2).

Bearish:

Notice that there is also a down channel in th 60min chart below (a smaller down channel inside the larger one)

The RSI is pointed up, but notice also that it needs to clear 2 levels of resistance (2 trendlines)

The last 2 hourly candles are bearish (have tails)

Bullish:
The stochastic is curled up, suggesting an attempt at higher prices. MACD histogram is rising, trying to cross 0 line

RSI pointed up

If SPX gaps up on Monday, it could gap up above the mini channel resistance line.

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Also, even if SPX goes higher to about 1100/04, I still expect a move lower to 1085 then 1070, 1050 and thinking down to 921ish. So the SDS is another "early" entry (just like the TZA, that worked) for that expected move. I was daytrading the sds on Friday, and I didn't want to sell it at Friday's prices. I think that even if SDS goes lower (higher spx) on Monday that the SDS will still go a little higher before lower, allowing me to sell at a better price. If not, then I'll continue holding it as a swing. I hesitate to go long on any swings, since that's a contra-trend trade (to me) for now.

Chart 1

Chart 2
Note the similarities in the areas of the chart shaded in black

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".