403
SUMMARY
100% winning or breakeven daytrades today. Did take a loss on the TZA swing but that was covered by daytrade profits. Ended green.
400
on friday, or monday SPX IS IN DANGER of a bear evening star confirmation... wouldn't take much to get one
358
spx looks like it has some unfinished business on the upside...maybe just test prior high,,, futures overnight could change all that
352
tza doesnt look like it will make the .97 target...it did make new HOD but only by 2 cents
342
well tza did make a new high as i thought, but i was unable to sell it. i was stopped out breakeven.
337
tza "should" get another pop today...but its right at R at hod
334
tza stop .79 not .77 now
3:27
crazy...both my sso and tza moving up same time here
3:21
poss spx bear HS 3min formin
2:57
.89 stop on all but 10%
2:54
spx can fall at any minute,,,but charts say it has more unfinished business on the upside. last 1110.5
2:53
W target 3814,, other target 3807
2:52
sso trying to break the W in 133t now
2:50
stop .87 on all but last 10%
2:41
changed my mind i'll
keep 10% into the close on sso...rest
is stop .82
2:35
sso 3797 should bring 3807
1:41
sso is in an upchannel, with support line around .76
128
stop raised to .76 for all of sso. last .80. eithr it breaks .82 or im not interested
125
if a second test of sso .82 fails then i will likely exit this thing.
119
sso stop .74 on 75%
115
37.82 sso should give 37.90 next. last 3780. the sso is a contratrend intraday trade so dont know how much we will get from it
1:07
TRADE: crazy...theres crouch tiger in sso so i'll try it...in at 3777. scalp only. dont know how much this will pop, if at all. stop 3770
1:01 PM
TRADE: update: took small loss on the swing (3 cents) but the swing loss more than offset by the tza daytrades. I could keep the swing, but trying for a better price.
1258
TRADE: SWING SOLD AT NEAR BREAKEVEN IN TZA. will look to re-enter....currently FLAT except for small 25% daytrade piece. swing sold near breakeven
1254
selling 50% of tza at the market at .82. i think spx might pop up a little here as its at the 1008...so exited
1248
spx 1008 test is impt here tho
1246
.80 not .81
1246
stop 11.81 on some of the tza...good stop for 50% of a small position
1242
tza pattern target is 12.01 / 11.98 after getting 1184, 1188, 1198, 1201
1241
tza stop on 75% raised to .77
1235
tza 11.80 trgt hit second time here
1230
tza stop changed to 1173 from 1174. breakeven.
1221
this would be a good spot to enter a tza swing to "try it out".... setting a stop... the charts are starting to form a nice swing short signal, though no official swing setup yet for me, but forming nicely
1216
tza pattern target is 12.01 / 11.98
1213
tza needs to get over these R: 1176, 80, 84, 88....each could be a target to sell.. i know they r close, but its also a cheap stock so a few pennies represents more % move, and it is what it is
1212
tza bull W continues to form in 133t
1211
stop raised to .74 on 75% of tza daytrade from .73
1207
bulls are struggling here...look at all those small candles on the 15min spx...and they are small within a narrow range day... its up but tough for them,
1202
tza tic chart trying to form bull W....not finished, under construction
1157
wow....tza "should" be breaking higher here, if not then i may exit, somethings wrong. last 1174
1152
LOL it figures that my .73 tza entry is the exact resistance in tza...keeps stalling there...grr...should break here tho
1148
here is 10min bull
diverg in tza which is why i entered
b4...but they take time to play out
sometimes
1136
grr is spx would stall for just 30 seconds on .50 pt lower then tza could break higher. YES tza mirrors RUT not spx, but markets are connected.
1130
90% formed crouching tiger tza now but .70 must hold
1125
poss bull inv HS forming in 2min tza
1122
nervous tza traders could exit here at 1170
1121
tza stops make sense at .63 and .52. mine for daytrade set at .63...will prob see .57 if .63 breaks
1120
sso 3788 and 3786 both hit...higher trgts same as b4
1118
sso 3786 not 3788 is ES 1109...good place to take profit or tighten stop...tho could easy break higher to next trgt.
1115
mental stop tza 1163....
1111
see if sso hits my old targets of 37.77, 3788, 3807, 3827... might get the 3788
(i am out of sso now though...took minimal profits before when stopped out)
1110
tza might not hold 1165...spx breaking higher...though it has done "better" than sds
1102
bought tza 11.73 for daytrade. crouching tiger will form if tza hitss 1177
1056
buy more tza 11.70 limit if filled
1043
tza is in a coil that could chop around until 11:09 AM at current velocity
1030
the TZA stop is wide...if it surges i will daytrade it, then buy back as swing...if it lags i will keep as swing....
1024
stopped out sso at .72 for all except 25%
1022
sso stop .72 on alll but 25%
1019
sold some at .77....i must per my rule to sell at R
1015
this pattern usually should give at least one more pop higher in spx, intraday, within next 30min
1014
2 cents from stopout on 75% sso
1010
spx near R now but charts suggest higher
1006
sso 3777 target was hit 2 times
1005
stop on 75% of sso at 3767, above .63 cost.... if it doesnt hold here i want to get out and re-eval
1003
huge bear shoot star spx but needs confiirmation
9:58
sso looks ready to breakout higher but hardd to tell since its at the crucial 10am volatile hour mark
crouching tiger here...but 10AM could mess it up
939
TRADE: sso targets 37.77, 3788, 3807
938
TRADE: in sso at 37.63 stop 3730 for now. mental stop at 3752
9:25
ES under 1106 would be bearish, since it represents R from yesterday.
9:23am
ES hit a high of 1111.25 and followed the roadmap below. It was able to finally overcome the 1107. A pullback, at least a small one, of course was expected at 1111
Wedn 7:30 AM
The ES was able to break over 1107, and reached 1109.50, but has been unable to break over the 1109.50 to test the 1111/1112. Last ES 1008.50.
Tues 6pm
Quick update... will perhaps add details later, and perhaps refine the targets below.
Range: 1095 to 1107.
Bullish: Break of 1107 suggests 1111 and 1114
Bearish: Break of 1102 suggests 1100, 1095, 1092, 1089, 1085, 1083
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Showing posts with label Daily Ramblings. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Daily Ramblings. Show all posts
Tuesday, November 24, 2009
Tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
SUMMARY
Good day today. Didn't calculate exact profits, but had 100% winning trades.
3:57
sold rest of sso at 37.58
3:49
TRADE: TZA swing 11.91
actually.... i'll take a very small tza swing/// 11.91. why? because tza looks like it will close higher than, or at least close to, yesterday's tza high, among other factors.
3:47
this is close to a tza swing setup, surprisingly tza ended up at the 1190 area that i was looking for this morn... but because tomorrow is low vol, i'll wait to initate a new swing.
342
looks like selling into close in spx...close under 1105
340
3754 sso stop .47 is an aggressive trade but could work....i'll pass
339
spx back at 1105...this should determine if the close is up or down...as earlier...over 1105 bull, under 1105 bear
331
obligated to sell all sso except last 25% here at .58...somethings not right... sso 3745 possible down here
326
another crouching
tiger is forming, but incomplete, and
also into the close everything is less
accurate
314
if 1105 doesnt
hold here, i will sell all sso except last 25% which i will keep until close. smaller positions, i would take the 3758... i expecct spx to hold and give a bounce up here....spx last 1105.60
spx getting tired...the next bounce might be it for today
313
the spx could form an inv HS in 60min...mini one from last 3 days...half constructed, speculative
255
the ES is following closely the 7:39am chart roadmap from this morn... move up, with lower rsi and macd. although ES didnt make 1112 as suggested this morn...
243
looking for short swing entry but no setup yet. we should get one after spx finishes this business on the upside.
241
intraday charts say spx still has unfinished business on the upside. last 1105
237
sso overshoot would be 3821. don't know how high it will go, if any higher. just ride the wave till it crashes
2:48
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821
231
conserv traders would sell here at .55 or tighten stops....spx at resistance here...but i'll hold cuz if res breaks we should get another pop
229
tick chart sso suggests 3786 target
2:28
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821
2:26
sso 3805? test high? idk
2:25
got .56 and .57 for that piece.... still have half sso
2:23
grr hit 3756...one cent miss
214
spx should push at least lil higher in next 10min
212
limit 3757 not 3763
2:08
large sso would sell some here at .47, save some for higher....smaller might sell half and keep half stop .27ish ... still have .63 lim order in
2:01pm
widening stops, setting hard in sso, in case of volatility here.
1:57
if not stopped out... still have the limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able, from 3731... for example, profit would be $300 on 1000 shrs... 600 on 2k, etc. although...this trade is getting old...
137
spx 3min bull inv HS, hull 15min bull flag, coil in the 60.... could go either way...charts suggest at least a pop up,,,idk how high, if at all... 15min bull stoch rsi 15min
1:33
3756 sso next target
1:28
spx backtested this coil twice...slowing it down...did not expect this....
1:27
we've got bull diverg in the spx now...intraday only for scalps. spx last 1103
1:20
ok the .41 stop triggered...filled at .44
1:15
raising stop on 25% ssso to 3741...only 10 cents but scalping that...holding rest for higher smaller positions could set 50% stop at .41. i will hold 25% of sso BELOW breakeven...but not allow it to make the day a loss...loss limited
1:12
limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able. stops raised to near breeakeven.
1:11
as expected, spx did a headfake lower, where i bought, followed by the move up....now just need to hold the .30 and break .50ish
1:08
from 11:51am....spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes.
1:05
sso crouching tiger forming...close...
1253
uh oh...the spx is trying to convert the coil into a bear desc triangle...nervous sso would exit here at 3731...i'll stay. as mentioned earlier...there is a bear diverg in sso 3min....so this is riskier...i'm thinking that sso will temporarily ignore the diverg before it manifests itself
1250
sso is behaving....for now....
1245
in sso 37.31
riskier...playing the support in coil...could break against me...but have profits to re-invest
mental stop at 3725 3721.. will prob see 3710 if those break. order to sell at mkt is in place...only need to press "send"...if it hits near there i prob will
1243
switching to looking
at sso not tna...tna vol too pokey
1236
i like tna...looks ready to
breakout...but am holding off cuz there is a bear
diverg off the inv HS
1232
looking for possible tna...not yet
1225
not sure if we will see it, seems hard to believe, but an upside breakout in spx suggests 1117 target if it makes over 1112
1220
tza chart..if tza breaks 1295, 1290 prob come right after. last tza 1196. bias down
1219
spx "should have" moved to 1102 by now...its at 1103... of course volume spike could easily change it either way
1215
If SPY closes under 110.56 and preferably 109.50, then it will have a confirmed candle pattern: bearish shooting star. I personally never trade based only on candles, but it's another piece to add to the analysis.
1203
possible bear HS in tza 3min
1202
spx could pull back here to 1101 and stay in the coil. last 1103
1201
spxu not holding 3795ish suggests 3772 3760
1158
i dont like the shortside here for daytrade...last spx 1101
1153
the spx 15min rsi trendline is DOWN...but the spx is challenging it now...see if that holds or breaks
1151
spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes. this coil could break either way. For the coil...spx over 1102 bullish, under 1102 bearish. and we need to beware of a false breakout,backtest, and reversal in the opposite direction.
1142
spxu stall expected at 3836 then 38.42 if it gets there...then next trgt 38.73 if hits .48,,,,,....last 38.23
1137
out of tza at 1206 from 1202...no big profit there. exited because it's not looking "right"....could hit the 11.90... plus i am tired and taking a break from trading here. It's sometimes exhausting playing both short and long in same day.
1130
charts suggesting tza target of 12.24 first, about 3 cents under HOD
1125
tza stop set to 11.97 mental for now...actually should hold the 1203...or i will exit
1118
What is "crouching tiger" that I keep talking about? It's a proprietary setup that I developed that uses a combination of about 20 indicators to confirm the setup. It's a combination of these indicators plus certain chart candle patterns and price patterns. I will try to add more later to this post to explain it... its complicated. The success rate for it working is high, although I do not have actual stats on it. There is both a daytrade and swing crouching tiger. Oftentimes, I like to enter a daytrade using the crouching tiger, and then hold 25% of that daytrade as a swing, if a swing is merited.
1116
crouching tiger hit at 12.02 tza...why i entered. stop could be set at 11.88, 1194, or 1197
1111
tza has crouching tiger trying to setup now...not quite ready yet...for daytrade not swing..yet
1103
charts suggest to wait on any short entry via tza...for now
1058
and now tza is near the 11.90ish swing trade entry target... :) ... but not yet... could see 11.86 or 11.66..not sure the swing setup will actually set itself up today...somewhat bothered by the possible bull diverg in daily RUT before taking short swing.
1049
stop changed to .37 for 50% position, breakeven for rest 25% (sold 25% already)
1048
3656/3661 stall tna expected. last .43
1046
then .42 to .56 tnathen .42 to .56 tna
1043
1.2% tna profits here in 30mins...selling some
1039
tna stall .29 expected. last .21
1038
35.99 broke...3638 tna trgt
1037
again, the tna expectations are mild now, its intraday contratrend trade...just watching to see what it can do.
10:31
tna 35.99 stalll expected. last 35.95
10:29
now there is a daily bull divergence forming in tNa...not formed yet, under construction. This pattern looks like it could be a move up in tna, and then down in tna.
10:24
in tna 35.77. mental stops at .63 and .42
10:14
tna buy limit 35.60 if filled. last 35.73...
10:13
considering tna for bounce up only, then convert to tza on reversal sell
10:08
loooking for a swing setup in tza to re-enter as well...prob around 11.90ish. no setup yet. last tza 12.20
10:03
Clearly ES did not hold the important 1103 and has now moved lower.
7:39AM
ES futures are up 2.50. ES is in a 60 min uptrend right now. Charts suggest that it will go from 1106 (current price) to test the 1112 as long as it stays over 1103 and preferably over 1105. At 1112, ES would either turn lower or make a new weekly high. In either case, a bearish divergence is likely to set up, suggesting a corrective move lower.
Let's see if the ES continues on this roadmap, or decides to change direction. For now, the bias is UP then correction down, to me.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Good day today. Didn't calculate exact profits, but had 100% winning trades.
3:57
sold rest of sso at 37.58
3:49
TRADE: TZA swing 11.91
actually.... i'll take a very small tza swing/// 11.91. why? because tza looks like it will close higher than, or at least close to, yesterday's tza high, among other factors.
3:47
this is close to a tza swing setup, surprisingly tza ended up at the 1190 area that i was looking for this morn... but because tomorrow is low vol, i'll wait to initate a new swing.
342
looks like selling into close in spx...close under 1105
340
3754 sso stop .47 is an aggressive trade but could work....i'll pass
339
spx back at 1105...this should determine if the close is up or down...as earlier...over 1105 bull, under 1105 bear
331
obligated to sell all sso except last 25% here at .58...somethings not right... sso 3745 possible down here
326
another crouching
tiger is forming, but incomplete, and
also into the close everything is less
accurate
314
if 1105 doesnt
hold here, i will sell all sso except last 25% which i will keep until close. smaller positions, i would take the 3758... i expecct spx to hold and give a bounce up here....spx last 1105.60
spx getting tired...the next bounce might be it for today
313
the spx could form an inv HS in 60min...mini one from last 3 days...half constructed, speculative
255
the ES is following closely the 7:39am chart roadmap from this morn... move up, with lower rsi and macd. although ES didnt make 1112 as suggested this morn...
243
looking for short swing entry but no setup yet. we should get one after spx finishes this business on the upside.
241
intraday charts say spx still has unfinished business on the upside. last 1105
237
sso overshoot would be 3821. don't know how high it will go, if any higher. just ride the wave till it crashes
2:48
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821
231
conserv traders would sell here at .55 or tighten stops....spx at resistance here...but i'll hold cuz if res breaks we should get another pop
229
tick chart sso suggests 3786 target
2:28
if sso hurdles .63 then .77, .88, then 3803, 3821
2:26
sso 3805? test high? idk
2:25
got .56 and .57 for that piece.... still have half sso
2:23
grr hit 3756...one cent miss
214
spx should push at least lil higher in next 10min
212
limit 3757 not 3763
2:08
large sso would sell some here at .47, save some for higher....smaller might sell half and keep half stop .27ish ... still have .63 lim order in
2:01pm
widening stops, setting hard in sso, in case of volatility here.
1:57
if not stopped out... still have the limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able, from 3731... for example, profit would be $300 on 1000 shrs... 600 on 2k, etc. although...this trade is getting old...
137
spx 3min bull inv HS, hull 15min bull flag, coil in the 60.... could go either way...charts suggest at least a pop up,,,idk how high, if at all... 15min bull stoch rsi 15min
1:33
3756 sso next target
1:28
spx backtested this coil twice...slowing it down...did not expect this....
1:27
we've got bull diverg in the spx now...intraday only for scalps. spx last 1103
1:20
ok the .41 stop triggered...filled at .44
1:15
raising stop on 25% ssso to 3741...only 10 cents but scalping that...holding rest for higher smaller positions could set 50% stop at .41. i will hold 25% of sso BELOW breakeven...but not allow it to make the day a loss...loss limited
1:12
limit sell 25% sso 37.63 if able. stops raised to near breeakeven.
1:11
as expected, spx did a headfake lower, where i bought, followed by the move up....now just need to hold the .30 and break .50ish
1:08
from 11:51am....spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes.
1:05
sso crouching tiger forming...close...
1253
uh oh...the spx is trying to convert the coil into a bear desc triangle...nervous sso would exit here at 3731...i'll stay. as mentioned earlier...there is a bear diverg in sso 3min....so this is riskier...i'm thinking that sso will temporarily ignore the diverg before it manifests itself
1250
sso is behaving....for now....
1245
in sso 37.31
riskier...playing the support in coil...could break against me...but have profits to re-invest
mental stop at 3725 3721.. will prob see 3710 if those break. order to sell at mkt is in place...only need to press "send"...if it hits near there i prob will
1243
switching to looking
at sso not tna...tna vol too pokey
1236
i like tna...looks ready to
breakout...but am holding off cuz there is a bear
diverg off the inv HS
1232
looking for possible tna...not yet
1225
not sure if we will see it, seems hard to believe, but an upside breakout in spx suggests 1117 target if it makes over 1112
1220
tza chart..if tza breaks 1295, 1290 prob come right after. last tza 1196. bias down
1219
spx "should have" moved to 1102 by now...its at 1103... of course volume spike could easily change it either way
1215
If SPY closes under 110.56 and preferably 109.50, then it will have a confirmed candle pattern: bearish shooting star. I personally never trade based only on candles, but it's another piece to add to the analysis.
1203
possible bear HS in tza 3min
1202
spx could pull back here to 1101 and stay in the coil. last 1103
1201
spxu not holding 3795ish suggests 3772 3760
1158
i dont like the shortside here for daytrade...last spx 1101
1153
the spx 15min rsi trendline is DOWN...but the spx is challenging it now...see if that holds or breaks
1151
spx is in a coil and it will around here until about 1:07pm..... unless its velocity changes. this coil could break either way. For the coil...spx over 1102 bullish, under 1102 bearish. and we need to beware of a false breakout,backtest, and reversal in the opposite direction.
1142
spxu stall expected at 3836 then 38.42 if it gets there...then next trgt 38.73 if hits .48,,,,,....last 38.23
1137
out of tza at 1206 from 1202...no big profit there. exited because it's not looking "right"....could hit the 11.90... plus i am tired and taking a break from trading here. It's sometimes exhausting playing both short and long in same day.
1130
charts suggesting tza target of 12.24 first, about 3 cents under HOD
1125
tza stop set to 11.97 mental for now...actually should hold the 1203...or i will exit
1118
What is "crouching tiger" that I keep talking about? It's a proprietary setup that I developed that uses a combination of about 20 indicators to confirm the setup. It's a combination of these indicators plus certain chart candle patterns and price patterns. I will try to add more later to this post to explain it... its complicated. The success rate for it working is high, although I do not have actual stats on it. There is both a daytrade and swing crouching tiger. Oftentimes, I like to enter a daytrade using the crouching tiger, and then hold 25% of that daytrade as a swing, if a swing is merited.
1116
crouching tiger hit at 12.02 tza...why i entered. stop could be set at 11.88, 1194, or 1197
1111
tza has crouching tiger trying to setup now...not quite ready yet...for daytrade not swing..yet
1103
charts suggest to wait on any short entry via tza...for now
1058
and now tza is near the 11.90ish swing trade entry target... :) ... but not yet... could see 11.86 or 11.66..not sure the swing setup will actually set itself up today...somewhat bothered by the possible bull diverg in daily RUT before taking short swing.
1049
stop changed to .37 for 50% position, breakeven for rest 25% (sold 25% already)
1048
3656/3661 stall tna expected. last .43
1046
then .42 to .56 tnathen .42 to .56 tna
1043
1.2% tna profits here in 30mins...selling some
1039
tna stall .29 expected. last .21
1038
35.99 broke...3638 tna trgt
1037
again, the tna expectations are mild now, its intraday contratrend trade...just watching to see what it can do.
10:31
tna 35.99 stalll expected. last 35.95
10:29
now there is a daily bull divergence forming in tNa...not formed yet, under construction. This pattern looks like it could be a move up in tna, and then down in tna.
10:24
in tna 35.77. mental stops at .63 and .42
10:14
tna buy limit 35.60 if filled. last 35.73...
10:13
considering tna for bounce up only, then convert to tza on reversal sell
10:08
loooking for a swing setup in tza to re-enter as well...prob around 11.90ish. no setup yet. last tza 12.20
10:03
Clearly ES did not hold the important 1103 and has now moved lower.
7:39AM
ES futures are up 2.50. ES is in a 60 min uptrend right now. Charts suggest that it will go from 1106 (current price) to test the 1112 as long as it stays over 1103 and preferably over 1105. At 1112, ES would either turn lower or make a new weekly high. In either case, a bearish divergence is likely to set up, suggesting a corrective move lower.
Let's see if the ES continues on this roadmap, or decides to change direction. For now, the bias is UP then correction down, to me.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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