Thursday thoughts

353
 selling most of swing CAT here for about 9% roi,,,will keep small amoutn,,may try to buy back later lower ,,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

334
perhaps es gets 1270 b4 the close

315
*127.44

315
lowering order,spy 128.44 lim sell if able, at resist test

248
keeping intc longs over weekend,,,intc daily higher low, not near yest low like spy

245
there is resist at 127.50 tho,,,

245
will sell spy 127.83 lim if able

211
spy wick over 128.20

206
theres es 126475,,,bulls need to step up here

153
XLU util etf moving higher

146
if unp can get over 101.10 then good chance it has made its low of day

143
in a perfect world on this pattern, es wouldnt go under 1264.75 thru rest of day

140
3 large 3min es green candles,,,near turn time,,,bulls trying here,,watching for followthru

117
15min UNP stoch is flattening at 35,,combined with the 15min candle patterns, this often results in resumption of the prior stoch direction, in this case up

1250
time analysis suggests 1:17pm turn time, if accurate

1249
adding here at ES 1265,,via SPY

1030
paper trade, not a real trade: intc 22 calls at 28 cents....want to explore how intc acts on the optinos side, i am long the underlying instead

1027
weak,but bullish vol diverg

1027
thus far,,,ES 9am and 10am candles 60min:::: volume is less today

1024
compare 3min intc to 3min spy

1015
adding more intc 2156,,for over 2172 trgts

1012
ES,,,a 15min close back over 1273,,,will maybe mean the low of day is in when that happens

952
 es 1273 long via spy,,upro is 3x for more leverage

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

403
INTC has a bull key reversal day candle, tho its not a great one,,,would have been better if intc low was 2090 and hi was 2190,,,it engulfed yest candel daily but the daily 4 day range is wider

401
CAT closed up 0.39% from yest close after a 3.5% intraday move,,,INTC closed up 1.47% cs yest close

326
FDX trading over yesterdays high atm

318
CAT blew thru the 9987 trgt,,, still have 103,,,107,,,111 trgts

315
INTC has done nothing for 10 years,,,,if it gets moving it could see 30 as its a heavily shorted stock,,,nothing to suggest that atm,,,just a thought

313
not sure if it can do it,,but a daily close over 2175/ pref 2200/2210 intc would be v significant

312
INTC has tested and marginally broken yesterdays high

308
a few days ago we talked about how turbulence often accompanies a macd hist daily cross from <0 to over 0,,,this action today is typical of that as it crossed yest/day b4 on SPY

300
WOW huge green candles ES   CAT  UNP 3min charts

206
LOL the CAT daily chart is now a mess,,,with a bad data print to $9,877.00,,crazy data,,dont know if i ever saw a 10,000 dollar misprint before

203
cat chopping around now in 9860--9920 area,,,waiting for settlement b4 any more scalps there

201
exiting scalp CAT 9900,,,will keep swing piece,,and buy back later,,from 9730 entry this morn

119
raising stop on CAT to 9857,,,if stopped will take profit and look to reenter again lower..... last .81

103
**1.52%,,,typo

101
taking another piece of CAT off here makes sense, 2.52% profit, to hold the rest for higher

1251
*9875

1251
CAT making new daily highs,,watching reation at 9900 if gets there,,,interim trgt,,,9975 last

1239
15min ES stoch is getting flat,,,usually not always it will resume its prior direction b4 the flatness,,,in this case up

1216
: for scalp part of scalp/swing combo,,i chose CAT because it made a nice early morn high then pulled backk,,,so traded the retest of high (which its done),,,,,now watching to see if it can break it higher or not,,,,also, intraday CAT is outperforming DOW heavily,,,, DIA went up 0.44% since cat entry,,,vs CAT up since entry 1.33%

1208
 5 days or so ago,,,i mentinoed that SPY macd hist was near to cross above 0,,,and that this is often volatile but eventually higher,,,,  we are seeing that now as it crossed over yest

1206
CAT may stall here at its high of day test,,,watching reactions for stall or breakthru higher

1204
but diversified,,,also using UNP  FDX for transports instead of IYT

1203
CAT market maker reports suggesting institutinos like this stock for multimonth holds

1154
but that timing analysis is just another tool like rsi stoch etc,,,can't trade on it alone

1153
yesterday i posted to expect a low today at 11am,,,thus far low of day was at 10:51 am bar on ES 3min chart

1138
makes sense to take profits on part of CAT here,,,1.1% roi from this morn,,then try re-enter lower if able else run with rest of positino higher

1137
3min chart hit .45 not .47 ,,,chart suggests maybe pb on cat b4 over .47,,,considering .47 trgt hit here ,,,, .40 last

1121
trying for 9987 today if able,,,else may need to sell scalp part lower

1119
CAT scalp/swing trgts:  98.47,,99.87,,103, 107, 111,,last 97.75 from 97.30 entry this morn

1058
ES is at the beggininng of the 11am--1pm timing bottom from yest,,,watching reactions here as it enters the beginning of the stage

1049
on daily charts,,,if ES breaks 1250 then it will start to form a megaphone volatile bottom mentinoed yesterday,,and could be in for a very volatile wild summer,,,not saying it will break,,,just something to watch

1029
CAT 9730

951am
looks like we got that down hard,,tho harder than i expected,,,,may enter partial long early,,,still looking at 11am--1pm for poss bott short term for 2 hour--3 day swing

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

324
will be interesting to see,,,current analysis suggests some type of basing with poss long entry 11am--1pm,,,if this is right

322
i have a minor timing alert around 11 AM tomorrow

302
INTC has miniature daily candle

247
2167,,2189,,2208 INTC trgts,,

151
INTC 21.52 swing long

137
UNP 102.80 adding,,,will scalp/swing combo

130
cancelled order on ebay short,never filled

1213
UNP can also be scalped,,it is slightly more volatile than SPY, less than the 2x etfs,,tho when it picks a direction it can move faster than the 2x (mostly for swings on faster)

1153
if ebay short is filled, order to close at .27 trgt

1150
if filled, will lim sell UNP 104.97 from 103.17 cost

1130
105 and 110/111 trgts on unp,,

1129
15min ....3min chart suggests may make new daily high and not come back down here,,,unsure

1129
in UNP long swing now, 103.17,,,paying premium,,,may add more later on pb

1120
lim order UNP 102.27 if filled, if not may pay higher,later

1118
since May, UNP daily has held a rectangle formation vs the downside spx chart

1117
(railroad transports play)

1117
watching for reentry long in UNP, 3-15 day swing

1104
watching EBAY for poss short entry sccalp

1016
Market Maker reports suggest that MM are buying key DOW stocks here,,,but letting the price drop,, buying as it drops. not sure how long they continue to let it drop, but suggests a long opp may present today,,,no setup yet,,, the 15min chart should give the signal.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

326
we still have 35 min b4 close so vol could change, but are sellers getting tired/fewer?  Less volume on today's selloff, Candle from 2 days ago on ES has higher volume ,,, spy shows similar, with a higher low

238
MCD 8260 last....approaching 8297 trgt, up 1% today

221
82% buy alert es

220
es 3min made marginal break higher on horiz resist

218
poss TBT breakout higher coming here (lower TLT),,tho i have no positions there

142
1267/68 remains impt ES pivot to watch,,,move back above it, with a 15min candle close over it, would negate prior quick spike under it

129
upro 6995,,,sso 4900

127
early entry 1264 es long could work, must be willing to endure poss lower low first

124
step 1 on patterns says 1263 ES may be low of day since 9:30 AM now,, but is NOT confirmed,,,pattern needs confirm

116
CORN was up this morn but has turned back down as expected,,,but still no long setup swing imo,,waiting,,prob till next week

112
ES is forming a possible pattern that will suggest the low of day is in, but not baked yet,,,another 15-60minutes needed,,watching to see if pattern confirms,,,not suggesting low is in yet,,,pattern still in dev

1147
interim trgt 13.06 on ATML, last 12.84 from 12.68 entry this morn,,,will sell 1306 if able and then try to buy back, may change later depending on charts intraday

1045
15min bar clkosed just over the 1268, right at trgt for now,,,watching still awhile, for multihour timeframe imo is bullish while closing over it, sugg poss basing after the gap,, 3min suggests could go lower in meantime


1014
*13.33

1013
13.37 ATML first trgt, 5.3% roi if hit

1008
ATML is more volatile alt for INTC, semicond

1007
12.68 ATML long

951
watching if ES 15min candle closes stay over 1268ish ES, a bit higher from the prior 1265ish ES last 2 days

945
CORN long may present an opp swing but waiting for entry,,,watching to see what it does here,,,will usually take one more trip down first, w this pattern

934
took profits in AET 43.75,,,will look to reenter.  took profits in AIG 28.4,, will look to reenter later,,, holding csco longer

929
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

401 pm
AIG    CSCO    AET  all outperformed spx today,,,spx SPY up 0.22%,,they were up 0.50% (twice as good).,, 1.42% (6 times better) ,,,, and 0.70% (3 times better)


1214
still no real 60min ES close over 1265, continuing to watch since 9:18AM, tho its trying

918
watching for 60min es close over 1265

8:58  am
my charts still have same setup as yest at close,,,suggests long spx,,,from pattern forming prior 3 days,,for multihour/days holds


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

346
an ES close over 1263 would be decent, imo, tho still in bottom part of candle

343
Market Maker reports suggest "someone" was buying AET today,,,will see what happens in that stock in coming days

342
if AET could get a close over 43.44 that would be nice tho not required

329
MCD only down a few cents, near flat, vs 1.8% down in spx,,,but waiting to add MCD longs,,,,charts suggest it may want another trip lower first,,,,also they may sell the "safe" mcd to buy the small caps,,so waiting on re-entry

321
if the financials decide to rally,,, AET may get side benefit and do well in coming days,,,the AET chart daily stronger than spx

315
agressive could go long swing spx here,,,this is setup from yesterday

1220
of course, ES and SPX # are more valid than sso

1219
4866 is prior SSO low

1153
long in AIG, 28.01

1151
filled on SSO 48.90

1145
lim sso 48.90 if able

1131
idea:  for multihour /days holds, AIG (lol *gag* yea i know) is forming a decent base on 15min and also daily, with scalps poss in meantime,, 15min bull diverg forming,

1035
also looking to buy back shares in TBT that were sold yest (equiv to 2x short of TLT)

1033
still looking for opp to reenter spx long swing, same setup as yest, not baked yet all the way,,,may need another 1-4 hours,, also looking to buy back shares in MCD sold yest but no buyback yet,,, MCD now testing yest highs already and may breakout, not buying that breakout,,will wait for settling down

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

358
theres also a morn star candle pattern,,,that one needs confirmation tho, not confirmed,, a gap up tomorrow over todays high, or a close tomorrow over todays high, would be the confirmatino generally, on daily, for swing long

355
using macd hist bull PpP daily method says go long here (confirmed signal),,,spx has closed over yest hi,,,but i'll wait for poss pb ,,,since the macd method is only one of many tools

352
for swings, CLOSING here,,,imo partial profit taking on half of longs makes sense,,,may pb tomorrow, or go over resist, either is valid reaction,, i'll watch with half size positinos and maybe reenter tomorrow

347
stopped out of TBT, 3% profit roi from entry yest,, still want to re-enter again

315
out of MCD swing for now, will look to poss reenter tomorrowa

309
8165 mcd stop .61 scalp into close could work,low risk

302
LOL MCD hit .62,,,didnt trigger the .61 stop,,missed by a penny (.69 last) tho could easily revist and sweep the stop lower

255
now if selloff,,,profits guar with profit stop order mcd tbt,,,keeping the non-particapatory stuck in the mud CSCO stops looser

254
MCD stop raised to .61 to guar profits in case of selloff

251
.71 stop on TBT

243
if tbt doesnt stall at 3400 (prob will),,then could be fireworks higher

242
3392---3420 tbt trigger alert trgt 1

241
intraday TLT sell alert,,,tbt buy alert, just triggered, 33.73 tbt

228
over 1280 es bullish tho thats 5 points lower from here

227
TBT intraday, 3min chart,,,3rd drive to high for poss 3min breakout higher (lower on TLT)

223
1280 ES is wedge support intraday, ES

216
stop on half of MCD, 81.43

201
lim sell MCD half 8241 if able, else will sell lower,,8175 last,,, 8241 is 18 cents over stretch trgt 8223

158
will take profit on half of MCD long swing today,and hold other half for higher trgts,,,,no exit yet

144
there goes jpm,,,dropped to 4187 from 4210/4240,,,

142
1297 spx on 60min is v tricky,,,it could also be viewed as 3rd drive to a high, which often breaks higher and doesn't look back for 2-3 days,,,,just alt scen

140
3400 tbt v impt resist #,,,needs to break over it else risk pb,,,watching reaction if it can get to 3400,, last 3370,, conversely if it does break resist could breakout,,,,tho atm expecting a stall

128
swing, added csco here 1505,, its been a laggard tho

123
out at 4204,,,jpm,,,still see higher but not worth it here,,, too susceptible to quick down move only to be followed by reversal up

120
will prob exit JPM in next 3-15 min and look for re-entry,,,still holding the other longs mcd etc

117
XLF is not near its daily hi as es spx are,,,if the financials move up toward their highs, may give a  lil pop on spx es to new highs daily

115
these intraday wedges are painful for shorts cuz theres no pb for them to get out,,but who knows what happens in next 3 hours,,,could easily plunge as it has b4 but charts bullish to me unless wedge supp breaks

111
IF spx closes near its highs today, this could trigger a small 4-6 point pop higher in the morn, margin calls shorts

1259
"something" up or down, may be happening here

1256
Thus far,,,spx es has formed that wedge that i mentioed as poss alt bull scenario at 10am-ish this morn

1254
MCD trying to make new highs of day, has now caught up to spx almost

1247
CLR up 3.5% from yest,,but under its high of day,,,still see test of high,or higher

1240
42.40 lim sell jpm if able for 1% scalp

1226
stop 33.43 tbt for now intraday to protect 2.5% profit,,,if stopped will look to reenter long later

1151
fas / xlf / jpm dont have ideal "options calls" setup imo, yet,, underlying only

1149
may need to exit jpm scalp trgt 4240 and re-enter,,,depending on reactions,,,not a typical swing but an actively managed scalp/swing combo

1145
42.97 first trgt jpm,,,will see reaction if can get there

1137
long JPM 41.89 scalp swing combo, more leverage can be done with similar FAS

1120
 the volatile CLR volatile alt to xom is up 3.6% today

1116
looking for poss long entry in JPM but not ready yet,,,still want to short financials but much later

1037
tbt trgt 3390 then 3470

1035
csco remains dull

1034
MCD now catching up top spx,,now up 1% MCD

1030
since both the financials and also the small caps are heavily shorted atm,,,that could cause a short squeeze faster than normal

1028
watch for poss alt bull scen: failure to form right shoulder just go higher in a wedge

1021
MCD has broken higher out of its 60min/daily bull coil and sustained thus far 30 cents over the break

1017
SPY gapped up, with no signif pullback in the first 30min of trading,,,often means buy dips, higher hi intraday

1016
es spx gap theory suggests intraday buy dips

1010
today "might" give an indication of whether TLT put in a short term top or not

1008
watching treas bonds carefuly here, TLT

953
csco 1517 last vs 1532 entry swing,,,still holding,,,csco remains an excercize in patience,,,,have not added to position on csco

951
MCD only up 0.5% vs ES up 1.1% ,,, MCD now at daily coil resist tho,if breaks should pop higher nicely to 82 and 83 trgts,,, 8115 last

947
TBT is right at its daily downtrend resist line,,,,so if doesnt push thru here, could drop to 3275,watching

946
TBT lim sell trgt 34.70 from yest entry 32.72 up 2.2% atm (TBT is 2x short of TLT)

943
MCD trgt still lim sell at 82.92, last 8109 from 8050 and 8110 entries

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

324
Watch the bond traders,,in general they are much smarter than equities

246
with 15min suggesting intraday breakout mayb

246
swing on tbt,,,,tbt bullish diverg daily, stable atm on 60min, and it appears after watching TLT last 10 days that TLT topping

244
stop 31.66 for now

2:42
buying TBT long (bearish treasuries) 32.72, same as 2x short of TLT, after watching for last 10 days, early entry #1

207
out of sbusx scalp 3508

206
*3408

204
.07 last,,,will prob be stopped out

204
*35.04

202
STOP 3497 SBUX, will hold the stronger MCD with looser stops

147
taking half of scalp SBUX off here ,.92

1203
adding more sbux here 3478

1135
lim sell sbux half at 3568 if able, between 2 trgts

1127
3540 and 3597 sbux trgts to start, 37/39 later

1115
but corn may need another 3-4 hours at least of baking b4 setup

1115
possible swing re-entrys long in CORN and BAL cotton,,,no setup yet imo, CORN is "closer"

1102
long MCD swing still valid

1101
long sbux 3504 for either scalp or swing could work

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

301
watching to see if spx gets a 3min bar close over spx 1282,, if so poss fireworks higher

256
ETR has a decent chart

216
exiting 5234 for now to take the scalp profit

100
5238 trgt SIRO now, raised

1244
MCD has recovered back up to its 9:45am price after move lower this AM

1229
5236 trgt, lowered

1223
SIRO 5210 trgt 5240 first, scalp

1008
MCD is less volatile, does move "slower" so more shares needed, compared to 3x etfs or cotton corn oil etc

1004
MCD 82, 83, and 86.00ish trgts,,,86 would be a new high over the prior 83.08

1002
MCD may test 80.55 or lower first,,,if no test lower would be bullish on this already strong stock

1000
long MCD 81.10, scalp swing combo

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

357
if spx 60min can put in a higher low tomorrow, may give a swing long setup,,, idea to enter on the higher low and if it closes higher than entry keep else poss exit

154
this is tricky here,,, spx 1296 could break higher tho makes sense it would hold first test,,,but hanging out up here for hours now,,,,

144
TLT daily volatile candles continue

108
imo,,,aapl remains precarious on its daily n 60min charts,,,this consolodation on 60min often results in a lower low before any real rally,,, only a move over 339 would change the chart,,, 2 days ago i tried a long trade in aapl for a poss bounce but its been weak so i exited yesterday breakeven.

1246
trgt on csco is 17.00ish area

1244
buy #1 of possible 4 on csco,,,likely will only add to it one more time tho,,,leaving door open for poss add entry lower

1242
14.70 stop on csco for now,,,giving it some room,,,will raise stop in coming days or may exit above that stop if chart doesnt look right

1240
CSCO has been a laggard,,,just a diversification position, and looks like may be bottoming,,,the rally could be nice IF it gets one

1239
I'm surprised, but I'm trying a swing long position in CSCO here 15.32,,, stop 14.80

1232
for swing spx,,,i waiting for the other bulls to do all the work,,,let them break 1296 higher, then i'll buy a pullback or sideways,,,cuz 1250 could still come,,,tricky to me

1229
cotton CT daily went "down too much" on the last 4 daily red candles, so resist harder,,, CT broke 155 support and fell to 144 few days back

1228
exiting BAL cotton for now,,,still see higher but stall at 150 resist here,,unsure if blast higher or a 2% drop so took profits early

1225
we do have a 60min bullish rsi failure swing spx,, so pullback in next 4-12 hours may be buyable depending on charts

1210
UNP has gotten the 101.50 trgt,,,now watching for entry in coming hours

1155
bal cotton only 40 cents from next trgt :)

1149
for spx swings,,, i'll just be on sidelines next few hours watching,,,individ stocks, etfs, commodities opps exists

1147
tricky here, nimble needed imo,,, bias up BUT look at tues noon ES candles:  consolodation followed by bam hard down,, similar pattern tho of course the more times it "tries" to break the trendline resist, increases chance of break over it on this pattern

1144
8475--8500 next BAL cotton trgt, last 83.20, another 2%

1110
(via BAL)

1110
taking some cotton off here at 150,,, will buy back if able,,locked some profits ,,,its wild volatile

1106
stilllllllllllllllllllllllll still waiting for the TLT short setup swing,,,getting there,,,tbt long, for past week +

1102
cotton just broke the 150,,,up almost 4%,,,,still could drop 1% LOL,, 150.90 last


1296 spx will likely hold resist on first try,,,many "scared bulls" may want out,,many didnt expect under 1295 and now fear 1250,,, of course we know how they like to try and gap over the resist,,,will see what happens if it gets there

1100
here's /CT at the 150 trgt,,,149.90 last..watching reaction:   1% up down whipsaws can happn here

1024
128.60 spy, poss long entry on pb

1005
CT 150 is yest hi, expecting test of that and break higher over it like CLR,,natural to stall and pb first at the 150

959
still watching for entry back in UNP transp,,,swing,,,may require a few more hours of baking b4 setup

955
CLR just did margninal 30 cent break over yest hi as expected,,watching reactions now

953
UNG is near its multiweek 20% profit target,,,atm 18%,,, setting stop to just under todays low makes sense, or lim sell 12.83...last 12.51,,after 1280 trgt, pb then multiweek /months trgt another 20% to 14ish

943
CLR oil trgt swint 65/68/71,,,last 6162 testing yest hi,,expecting break over that hi

936
158.47 daily /CT target, 147.50 last,, trgt to take profits on half of position if able,,,may not make it there today but poss


907
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

414
also poss swing re-entry into UNP transports,,,much stronger chart

412
if 85.00 FDX holds,,,may present a long swing opp to hold awhile

408
tho IYT transport,,,maybe capitulated today,,,,lowest stoch reading in over a year, in past has bounced at 5-10 on daily 14,3,3 stoch,,,,stoch now at 1.82

406
look at IYT vs spy today,,not good

405
keeping the xom long,,,if it can  move sideways mayb can rally, and also the more volatile CLR in oil gas opperations,,along with cotton BAL

358
aapl,,,out 332.48 vs 332.07ish,,,no profit

353
end of day rally on aapl, too little too late,,,still think aapl can rally but can get a better entry tomorrow or another day

352
lim sell aapl 334, if not filled will still prob exit at the close, for a little over breakeven,,,not liking the chart

334
long setup from 2pm confirmed now but so close to end of day

322
1278 last es

322
the trading idea es nq long scalp from 200pm is now starting to "finish forming",,,tho not done,,,and now is too close to end of day imo to take it,,,not worth holding overnight to me just yet

319
raising aapl stop to 330.40 from 323.80,, if 330.40 broken i think lower

312
poss qqq rally into close but not trading it

252
if aapl doesnt close over 334.75/336 today, might make sense to exit and try re-entry

249
 i'll wait for swing long spx another day,,,maybe do qqq qld typ or iwm tza instead,,,,i think ES will stall and pullback if it gets 1296ishg

244
/CT cotton dropped to 145 at 2:15pm but quickly recovered nicely to 147 ($2) into the 230pm  close timeframe  ,,, so managed a close over 146

233
interesting: the BAL and AAPL 60min charts look similar,,,tho their daily is much diff

231
QQQ now breaking horizon resist on 3min,,,

226
aapl was pulled down with SPX   QQQ but is emerging from its 3min ahead of spx,,,atm,,,, nq looks easier long than es

213
heres the move back down, but 3min chart needs a few more candles to confirm long entry for prev mentinoed idea

203
near the 1281.50/1282,,, still watching if moves lower for poss long scalp

145
es over 1282, then back down, could give a scalp long setup depending on chart if it happns

139
ES 3min chart suggests long scalp might present but may take 15-60 minutes to form

136
for swing, a close over 146 would be good for /CT,,looks like its pushed its way back above 146 as it nears the crucial 2pm time period

117
daily bull falling wedge now spx can keep falling before rally up comes

117
swing short may present 1300ish

116
for swings long ES spx ,,, idea: wait for  ES to break over 1299, then buy the higher low,,, or poss buy at lower levels if goes for march lows,,, on the sidelines in spx swing for now

107
es testing the resistance zone 60min charts again here,,,

1246
until es 1286/87 breaks higher, bears controlling,,,tho the next try on 1287 may break higher,,watching,,,but has held on 2 tests on 60min chart,, often breaks on 3rd try,

1229
look at that daily volatility candles on TLT treasuries

1217
a close over 146 would be good for /CT

1215
Cotton shot from 145 to 148 in 10 minutes

1214
will watch how /CT acts at 2pm-ish

1213
Cotton /CT futures their volatility, 144 to 150 daily range thus far today,,still think its due for a decent bounce swings

1109
335.70 would be scalp trgt aapl, swing trgts higher,,,,335.19 algo resist too b4 the trgt

1020
xom maybe buyable on pullback in 60min

1019
XOM has broken the daily high from yest and day b4 and day b4

1011
8347 BAL trgt for half, last 8158

1002
swing long aapl could work , stop 324.80,,,,imo aapl is at the line in sand here,,,either holds,,,bases in this area to pivot higher,,,or poss freefall if supp breaks

1000
for swings,,, cotton /CT futures or BAL, looks ready to bounce again, multihour/days hold

958
since yest i am out of spx spy swing for now,,prob wont re-enter until a long opp  presents for a bounce,,,then later i still want to short XLF financials, or skf faz

955
Added BAL cotton long here, buy #2 of 2,,,, avg cost 83.38

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

409
i'm giving aapl a chance long here, bought at close, 332.00 stop 324,,,,small position in aapl,,,,its make or break time for it,,,either starts basing to go up, or further down hard

345
SPX may want to go for the march lows in coming days,,,glad i got out b4

308
stopped out of spy,,,keeping the individ stocks as long positions

304
.73 stop

259
L O L,,,,, stop missed by 2 cents,,,hangin by a thread

257
129.67 spy stop,,,either holds here or i'm out for now,, will prob stopout, but a much better exit than yesterday's close, for a small loss if stopped

249
if es doesn hold 1292 here,,,i will likely exit SPY at a 1%--1.5% LOSS and buy back lower later on

246
daily xom does not have lower daily lows like spx last few days

245
XOM has a good chance of breaking over its high from yest

243
i am lowering my sbux order, will take profit on half at 3648 if able and keep half

235
bulls need to hold 1292 es,,,or another multihour wait in store

230
sbux made marginal new daily high,,,strolling not marching toward trgt,, needs over 3652, las 3623

224
to add to existing swing, that trigger

224
my autotrade algorithm. for swings,,,will trigger tomorrow or following days if 1. the day closes over yest hi SPX, or 2. the spx gaps up at 930am and holds the gap,, no trigger yet, and won't get one today

216
but one step at a time,,,could get a harsh rejection here lol

215
spx,,spy,es  not sure if happens, but if "the boyz" been buying last 3 hours,,,could easily go over yest hi today

210
1298ish ES first trgt,1294 last

208
SPY trying again to break rectanvgle higher, this one "looks real"

114
131.12 spy lim to sell half,,, may sell lower later instead, depends on chart

112
the inv HS "just so happens" to measure to old trg, 131ish,,,,i like "coincidences" when they happen AFTER the trgt was established, serves as confirmation tho of course not guarantee

110
mini bull inv HS on SPY and ES 15min charts

109
ES looks like wants to test daily hi, mayb break higher, 1293 last

1256
i will lim sell half 3684 if able

1254
sbux trying to break higher out of its intraday rectangle on 60m charts,, resistance still holding for now tho

1043
ES 60min bars today are  repeat of yest so far: 9am red followed by 2nd green bar with hi over the red,,,but yest it couldnt hold the range and supp broke,,,watching here reactions

1039
Timing analysis suggests up bias for 4 hours more, with possible chop up down

1026
then 132.50 trgt 2

1025
"real trgt" 131.14 spy

1016
Yest,Back in BAL cotton from 85.25, last 84.24

1016
SPY 131.00 trgt 1, swing

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

343
interesting that XOM is not near its lows of day, near its highs

250
150.23 GLD scalping into close,, may not move a lot so using a lot of shares,,,more leverage is available on futures or 2x etfs

244
stop GLD 149.96

239
ES 15min volume bars are very low here,,,still could rally higher later

236
lim sell gld 151.00 if able

202
ES spiked down under 1305 as expected,,now the ques is can it rally back up intraday

152
my timing analysis for new swing shorts has changed,,,now my charts suggest need to wait 6-8 trading days more,,,for multiday/weeks short positions

144
but im' not adding,,,will run with existing position from 1296 ES this AM

143
long 1305 es could work here if filled, 1306 last

136
if es hits 1307 then 1305 would be buyable imo

126
might get a long scalp signal in 6-9 minutes,unsure, tho i wont take it since already long, SPX SPY ES

110
1311/1310 ES will likely stall there too, dont see a blast thru that,, 1310/11 may give same kind of 3min chart reaction we are getting now

108
in this case, the "failure" in the term refers to failure to go lower, not higher (bullish),,,confusing term

107
it's not visible on SPY charts, but the 15 and 60m ES charts are near to getting bullish RSI failure swings,,,it would be better if they were also on SPY,, the SPY will generally lag since ES trades all night but SPY more accurate when it triggers

1259
that ES stoch is rite near the 60ish area,,so watcihng if pops up or back down to 20

1255
grr hit .42 not .47,,missed lim fill by few cents,,so now i'm raising it to .57 instead

1237
spy may bust thru to new intraday hi, in 8minutes

1232
watching 1303 ES mini supp on 3min

1222
looking good atm to hit the lim order,,will see

1211
watching ES 14,3,3 stoch to stay over 60ish

1211
SPY is struggling a bit here at yesterdays low (resist) but is "holding on" pushing,,,watching reactions for poss early exit on SPY nearr here and reentry

1201
i will sell 75% of  SPY lim 131.47 if filled,,, and look to reenter later,,trgt 131.60 and pullback lower


1151
SPY now close to breaking the 3min DTL line on its backtest,,watching, at ES 1304

1137
Cotton BAL is now at 60min support but unsure if it will hold,,,so waiting to see if it can base here for a few hours or not,, agressive might re-enter long here but i'll wait for now

1132
If Spy gets a 15min close over 131.60,,it may trend up rest of day afterwards

1128
i still see higher BAL cotton and will look for an entry point to buy back shares sold at 9150ish

1127
WOW theres the move down on cotton BAL, now at 8993 from 9300ish,,,now i'm glad i exited a "little early" at 91.50 for 7.5% profit,,, these commodoties can make v rapid moves

1114
ES / SPYhas pulled back intraday here, but the ES 15min down vol bars have less vol than the green up bars, will keep holding SPY longs for now

1113
SPY daily MACD hist is forming a bull inv HS pattern below the 0 line,, a bit unusual as usually when it nears 0 it will cross to a lower green tower, then back lower, but the head and right shoulder of the hist formation has a bull diverg: higher macd hist with lower spy price

1100
notice yesterdays action: down hard at the open,,,this is due to "margin calls forced selling",,, today we gapped down, but no "forced selling",,,rather a creep higher,,, it suggests that all the margin calls have been satisfied, and MM are buying,,,retail will follow buying later near the highs LOL

1056
15min spy RSI(14) needs a close over 56,,if so spy should do well upside,,,will take time

1046
132.08 SPY trgt,,,will lim sell there if able

913
still have GLD also, sold cotton a bit early at 7.5% profit on fear of gap down today,,,instead its higher,,,will try to buy BAL again on pullbakc

903
Added SPY long at 130.17, buy #3 of poss 4 buys,,, 131.59 avg cost

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

247
still holding SPY long at 1% (0.83) loss for now, same limit order trgt higher if filled

244
Exited cotton BAL to take 7.55% profit, will look to re-enter later,,, may make another high tomorrow, or could correct lower first, so protecting profits and if it pulls back i'll re-enter again for the 12% profit trgt higher up

959
be back around 2pm,,,ttyl

956
lim sell BAL 95.40 which would give 12.4% profit if filled, stretch trgt for today tho prob needs a few more days

939
meanwhile BAL cotton continues higher, up another 1.5% this morn, 7.5% profit thus far, SPY profit is red 1% but holding for target to exit/re-enter, GLD at 0.5% still holding

938
will look to re-enter SPY long later if merited, still waiting the last 5 days for XLF finan short setup, none yet

937
I have an order SPY limit sell 133.73 to take profit if filled, last 132.22 spy, same targets for ES UPRO SSO

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

309
1333 first es trgt

301
IWM russel:=.............14,3,3 day stoch has dbl bot with a higher hi, the %k still above %d to move lil lower for kiss n bounce

227
adding long here at es 1321, buy #2, spy 132.63

112
daily 14,3,3 spy stochK has not even tested touched the stochD line ,,,still bullish,,,test touch is ok,, 54 last day stoch

103
will be hard to get over es 1335 today,,,but if the 60min bases, could see higher highs thurs fri

1226
maybe add in 2-3 hours

1226
instead of adding more spy here,,,i will not add but allow a wider stop since less shares

1219
es 15min vol bull diverg: less vol on this bar,, will take time to stabilize

1159
mayb spy closes 134ish,,,will see

1157
time analysis suggests bigger move up will come tomorrow or fri on spy,,,,60min needs to base for hours down here,, it could always make a blast higher but prob not today

1141
its working so far,,,spy 60min stoch now at 32,,,and spy holding in this area,, now the bulls need to prevent a spy plunge when stoch gets under 20, which can happn sometimes,

1134
higher gold = higher euro = lowre usd = good for spx,,

1123
LOL typo,,, ES 1330

1121
 long SPY at ES 1300,,,i may add more later, and hold time is hours

1111
i am buying spy lim 133.26 if filled,, more leverage can be obtained using sso or upro or ES futures

1109
GLD is moving higher, these days that's good for spx (at one time was bad LOL)

1103
if SPY can base in this area sideways for a few hours, then the SPY 60,min stoc under 20 likely will land with price near 133.50--134.00 which would be bullish for swings

1102
3min downtrend line NOT broken higher yet,,,needs to break on 3min higher then pb, b4 any long entry setup imo

1101
15min bull hammer spy,,,needs confirmation tho,,, 60min support held,,,may see sideways for a bit here

1054
3min spy bull diverg forming, weak one, macd hist,,,for sideways or small bounce ...last 133.30

1050
spy 15min forming bear falling wedge,,,could move lower but should bounce later

1047
cotton BAL just jumped another 1% intraday

1043
GLD 3min breakout,,,seeing if it sustains, same order on GLD for now: stop 146.83/sell lim 153.47

1037
in coming hour(s) SPY may hit 134.20, stall, and pullback to a higher low over .65,, if so then that higher low may present a long opp

1016
SPX down today,,,yesterday i posted to expect whipsaw,,,this almost always happens when the daily MACD hist is trying to get over 0 on spy

1011
multihour hold not minutes on 1324 es

1010
agressive scalp long setup here on spx es 1324,, idea only i'll just watch

1005
possible long entry spx ES may be setting up, for multihour/days hold,,,but needs at least another 30min to form, if not more,,,conversely a short setup may present ,,,so on sidelines now,,,bias is for long setup

947
dow compon XOM is testing v impt resist area on daily,,,may go sideways awhile, or harsh rejection lower, watching reaction

939
GLD is flat for now

938
BAL cotton has gapped up again this morn over 2%, roi at 5.5% now but still holding the swing,,, cotton often gaps up or down so stops need to wide enough

933
Still have lim order to short TLT 98.94 if it hits there in coming hours days, last 9691 on way to break 9700 higher first

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".