848
taking profit on half of SPX shorts here makes sense, premarket, on the big red candle reaction. holding xom shorts longer
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, July 8, 2011
Thursday, July 7, 2011
Thurs thoughts
356
Level 2 into the close: sellers outnumbering buyers for 3-10 seconds,,vs buyers more than sellers 1-4 seconds,,bearish
336
autotrader just gave a short spx swing
333
1344 es trgt lower, today, 6 points lowr from here
333
a close under ES 1344 would be v bad for bulls,
325
Market Maker report suggests lower also now, on last report update
254
added to swing shorts here at es 1352 via SPY
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Level 2 into the close: sellers outnumbering buyers for 3-10 seconds,,vs buyers more than sellers 1-4 seconds,,bearish
336
autotrader just gave a short spx swing
333
1344 es trgt lower, today, 6 points lowr from here
333
a close under ES 1344 would be v bad for bulls,
325
Market Maker report suggests lower also now, on last report update
254
added to swing shorts here at es 1352 via SPY
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, July 6, 2011
Wednesday thoughts
348
xom made a lower low today from yest on daily
348
xom spike,,,looks headfake,,compared to oil and spx
327
i think i'll hold the SPX shorts overnight,,,is resistance abovce if it wants higher,,,also the QQQ chart looks like it wants to move down at least a little bit,,, timing analysis suggests waiting 5 hours before going long on qqq,,,so will prob keep shorts
326
i'll hold this new swing short until 350/355pmish to see whats happening,,,may exit it ,,,nothings changed in 3 hours since entry
318
exiting rest of INTC long from 21.10 at 2272,,, still bullish chart but bear diverg forming on 60min
315
i'm not long oil,,if i were, might make sense to take profit and look for reentry
315
OIL 60m chart is still bullish,,,but is looking v susceptible to a break lower,,, USO and /CL,,, will be watching the close today on uso
236
cvx 103 trgt if it breaks this 60m trendline
235
unlike yest,,, CVX is a bit weaker than spx and oil today,,,should be good for xom shorts
228
5650/5675 may give a swing long later on qqq if downside comes first
227
5790 qqq support qqq
224
watching to see if a falling wege forms on the 3min ES
223
the winner of this intraday 1332 battle on 3min chart, is likely the direction into the close,,,bias still down atm but could go either way easily
214
a 3min candl close under 1332 ES suggests test low of day, maybe lower
210
intraday sell alert on qqq spy just triggered, scalps
209
somewhat concerned because charts are getting mixed up now, if cannot make new lows,,, also the first set of daily doji candles (not second set) often breaks in direction of preceding trend, in this case up
207
swing,,if spx doesnt make a lower daily low today, or close under yest low,,,i may exit this SPX spy short and look to reenter later long or short,,, in order to wait for these daily doji candles to decide whta they want to do and then enter in direction of the break, after a correction of such break
137
qqq and spy both on swing short setups, imo
128
intc is at target now on options from june 24,,, INTC Jul 16 2011 22.0 Calls now 84/85 cents,,up 300%
114
sometimes low vol selling can be advantage for shorts,,,intraday
113
ES is down nice here on 3min,,, AND not on heavy vol,,,can still go lower as more sellers are around
1157
i entered spx short early, because nasdaq is near resist,,,so trying to short the weaker spx while ndx at resist
1149
spy puts or sds calls could work on this setup,,,
1147
this is close enough to swing short target entry for spy on price,,,,and also near the 12--1pm timeframe from yest
1145
shorting SPY now, 133.85,,,may add more later, swing
1141
target is approx 20 points,,,smaller than normal target
1140
swing,,,,i will lim short SPY 134.28, just over 134.10 spx,,,,spxu 3x or sds 2x would give more leverage but may give poorer fills
1109
that 8085 area in xom is holding for now,,,if it doesnt break lower,,,may need to take a profit here on xom and look to reshort bounce,,,giving it a little longer to break
1051
if spx stays up instead of drift lower,,the setup would be short not long,,,watching reactions
1049
in 2-3 hours...poss long opp may present on qqq spy spx es, scalp,,,thats also close to todays 1200--1pm time analysis target calculated yesterday
1019
es 1329 broke as expected yest,,,still watching the 1325 area to see if sustains lower or not,,,
1017
7955 lim cover xom from 8180/8200ish entries,,will then try to reshort,,,to cover half and keep half longer
1009
watching xom reactino to 8083 if it gets there,,,8098 last
1008
1328 es support
1008
a break of es 1325 lower could trigger selling another 5 points fast
938
GLD gold gapped up this morn,,,may not be able to buy back half the shares sold yest,,running with half position for now,,,buyback opp may present in a few hours
935am
xom short swing,,,setup still calls to hold at least another 3-4 hours unless downside trgt 1 hit first
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
xom made a lower low today from yest on daily
348
xom spike,,,looks headfake,,compared to oil and spx
327
i think i'll hold the SPX shorts overnight,,,is resistance abovce if it wants higher,,,also the QQQ chart looks like it wants to move down at least a little bit,,, timing analysis suggests waiting 5 hours before going long on qqq,,,so will prob keep shorts
326
i'll hold this new swing short until 350/355pmish to see whats happening,,,may exit it ,,,nothings changed in 3 hours since entry
318
exiting rest of INTC long from 21.10 at 2272,,, still bullish chart but bear diverg forming on 60min
315
i'm not long oil,,if i were, might make sense to take profit and look for reentry
315
OIL 60m chart is still bullish,,,but is looking v susceptible to a break lower,,, USO and /CL,,, will be watching the close today on uso
236
cvx 103 trgt if it breaks this 60m trendline
235
unlike yest,,, CVX is a bit weaker than spx and oil today,,,should be good for xom shorts
228
5650/5675 may give a swing long later on qqq if downside comes first
227
5790 qqq support qqq
224
watching to see if a falling wege forms on the 3min ES
223
the winner of this intraday 1332 battle on 3min chart, is likely the direction into the close,,,bias still down atm but could go either way easily
214
a 3min candl close under 1332 ES suggests test low of day, maybe lower
210
intraday sell alert on qqq spy just triggered, scalps
209
somewhat concerned because charts are getting mixed up now, if cannot make new lows,,, also the first set of daily doji candles (not second set) often breaks in direction of preceding trend, in this case up
207
swing,,if spx doesnt make a lower daily low today, or close under yest low,,,i may exit this SPX spy short and look to reenter later long or short,,, in order to wait for these daily doji candles to decide whta they want to do and then enter in direction of the break, after a correction of such break
137
qqq and spy both on swing short setups, imo
128
intc is at target now on options from june 24,,, INTC Jul 16 2011 22.0 Calls now 84/85 cents,,up 300%
114
sometimes low vol selling can be advantage for shorts,,,intraday
113
ES is down nice here on 3min,,, AND not on heavy vol,,,can still go lower as more sellers are around
1157
i entered spx short early, because nasdaq is near resist,,,so trying to short the weaker spx while ndx at resist
1149
spy puts or sds calls could work on this setup,,,
1147
this is close enough to swing short target entry for spy on price,,,,and also near the 12--1pm timeframe from yest
1145
shorting SPY now, 133.85,,,may add more later, swing
1141
target is approx 20 points,,,smaller than normal target
1140
swing,,,,i will lim short SPY 134.28, just over 134.10 spx,,,,spxu 3x or sds 2x would give more leverage but may give poorer fills
1109
that 8085 area in xom is holding for now,,,if it doesnt break lower,,,may need to take a profit here on xom and look to reshort bounce,,,giving it a little longer to break
1051
if spx stays up instead of drift lower,,the setup would be short not long,,,watching reactions
1049
in 2-3 hours...poss long opp may present on qqq spy spx es, scalp,,,thats also close to todays 1200--1pm time analysis target calculated yesterday
1019
es 1329 broke as expected yest,,,still watching the 1325 area to see if sustains lower or not,,,
1017
7955 lim cover xom from 8180/8200ish entries,,will then try to reshort,,,to cover half and keep half longer
1009
watching xom reactino to 8083 if it gets there,,,8098 last
1008
1328 es support
1008
a break of es 1325 lower could trigger selling another 5 points fast
938
GLD gold gapped up this morn,,,may not be able to buy back half the shares sold yest,,running with half position for now,,,buyback opp may present in a few hours
935am
xom short swing,,,setup still calls to hold at least another 3-4 hours unless downside trgt 1 hit first
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, July 5, 2011
Tues thoughts
405
will try to buy back gold later,,, small profit but want to lock something in case of overnight currency games
404
upon looking at /GC and GLD,,,i took of half of gold longs,,, GC may want to visit 1500 or lower,,, 1515 last,, will try to buy back gold later
348
depends on xom close at 4pm,,,and coming 8 hrs
347
the two 60min candles xom,,,may have marked a 5-10 day top,,,unconfirmed but a hammer and shoot star at the "top" is bearish
344
gold is up about 2% today but will hold longer,,,still hasnt hit swing trgts higher,,, hopefully the gap up on GLD today is not a one day wonder
342
i think 1329 es will break lower, tomorrow
340
spx looks to have 4 more hours of consolod to me (spx 930--400pm not es 24hr),,could see a move down tomorrow after 12noon
337
the volume on es 3min chart upmove is less than downside vol, bearish,,that 15min red candle still bearish imo
318
xlf chart loooks susceptible to bounce tho its weaker today,,intraday in no mans land xlf 1550 between 1525/1570 supp resist so could go either way
306
what a diff between cvx chvron and xom exxon,,,cvx is acting properly, up (with oil) almost 1% vs xom down 0.5%,,when oil and spx correct,,,should be good for xom
301
es hit 1333 bounce trgt,,,holding as resist so far,,,watching reaction at 1333 for under 1329
232
may cover XOM 8070/8080 then look to reshort, last 8132
229
es bounce to 1333 then break under 1329 is one roadmap
226
1328/29 ES "should" hold on first test,,,but still on sidelines on spx,, if it breaks instead of hold, another 4-5 points fast down could come
212
i think the ES goes lower in coming hours, seduces some early shorts, then pops higher to trap them,,,and trap new longs at the same time,,,then a bounce to a swing shortable high for 20-30 points or more,,1300--1310ish ES trgt (not all today of course)
207
nasty 15min es candle here,,,will also likely short bounce if given opp
204
and theres the nice mini break lower on xom,,,charts sugg stay short at least another 30min
201
OIL and DOW are near resist now, with no up move in 15min XOM,,,may be good for xom shorts, xom down 0.51% vs spx up 0.1%
157
tho individ stocks still seem to outperform spx qqq both upside and downside
156
qqq nearing resistance,,,may short spx there for shortterm swing
135
another 5 points up on nasdaq, may present a nice scalp on spx ES,,using the stronger ndx resist for entry short on the weaker spx
131
7955 XOM swing short trgt if able to cover down there, last 8170,,,may need to cover higher and re-enter, unsure,,hodling for now
125
GLD is testing resistance here, a break over 147.50 suggests targets of 146.80,,148.74,,,149.73
123
SPX ES appear to be forming a short scalp setup,,,not confirmed yet
118
XOM still has 2 more hours in its "short swing any rally, or hold swing shorts from 8180--8200ish"
115
time analysis,,,OIL is nearing the end of its "bullish 4 hour timeframe",,,watching reactions up here to see if more sideways, up or down,,,may need pb in oil
1053
bias down intraday atm,,,imo,,agressive shorts could work but i'm on the sidelines
1051
seems like spx stuck in no mans land here for scalps,,,waiting for a move higher to short,,,or lower to go long, scalp,,, may not get a scalp setup all day today
1024
timing analysis suggests short bias in XOM for next 4 hours,,,sideways or lower,,,if lower will observe reactions to see if it bases or not,,, xom may go higher in next 4 hours,,, may not breakdown right away,,,but imo thats a shortable bounce
1020
referring to 60min and daily charts for spx,,,not 3min charts
1019
the first pullback in spx, for swings,,,will likely be buyable, then reverse to short the bounce for larger down later
1011
right now,,,xom and spx are both flat vs fridays close,,, but XOM "should be" higher than spx due to 2% higher oil prices,,,shows weakness relative in XOM
1009
xom strat is similar to my CAT long strategy, which went up 11%, more than spx,,,,except this is revers strat short
959
Gold is up nicely this morn, but has not yet hit its swing targets higher, holding still
956
OIL charts suggest a pullback then higher,,,,may be buyable after pullback,,may go higher first but looking for pb for poss long entry,, may take a few hours for pb, may not come today
expecting a pb in spx also,,, trading XOM for expected pb in dow spx and oil, seeing if XOM can outperform them on the downside
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
will try to buy back gold later,,, small profit but want to lock something in case of overnight currency games
404
upon looking at /GC and GLD,,,i took of half of gold longs,,, GC may want to visit 1500 or lower,,, 1515 last,, will try to buy back gold later
348
depends on xom close at 4pm,,,and coming 8 hrs
347
the two 60min candles xom,,,may have marked a 5-10 day top,,,unconfirmed but a hammer and shoot star at the "top" is bearish
344
gold is up about 2% today but will hold longer,,,still hasnt hit swing trgts higher,,, hopefully the gap up on GLD today is not a one day wonder
342
i think 1329 es will break lower, tomorrow
340
spx looks to have 4 more hours of consolod to me (spx 930--400pm not es 24hr),,could see a move down tomorrow after 12noon
337
the volume on es 3min chart upmove is less than downside vol, bearish,,that 15min red candle still bearish imo
318
xlf chart loooks susceptible to bounce tho its weaker today,,intraday in no mans land xlf 1550 between 1525/1570 supp resist so could go either way
306
what a diff between cvx chvron and xom exxon,,,cvx is acting properly, up (with oil) almost 1% vs xom down 0.5%,,when oil and spx correct,,,should be good for xom
301
es hit 1333 bounce trgt,,,holding as resist so far,,,watching reaction at 1333 for under 1329
232
may cover XOM 8070/8080 then look to reshort, last 8132
229
es bounce to 1333 then break under 1329 is one roadmap
226
1328/29 ES "should" hold on first test,,,but still on sidelines on spx,, if it breaks instead of hold, another 4-5 points fast down could come
212
i think the ES goes lower in coming hours, seduces some early shorts, then pops higher to trap them,,,and trap new longs at the same time,,,then a bounce to a swing shortable high for 20-30 points or more,,1300--1310ish ES trgt (not all today of course)
207
nasty 15min es candle here,,,will also likely short bounce if given opp
204
and theres the nice mini break lower on xom,,,charts sugg stay short at least another 30min
201
OIL and DOW are near resist now, with no up move in 15min XOM,,,may be good for xom shorts, xom down 0.51% vs spx up 0.1%
157
tho individ stocks still seem to outperform spx qqq both upside and downside
156
qqq nearing resistance,,,may short spx there for shortterm swing
135
another 5 points up on nasdaq, may present a nice scalp on spx ES,,using the stronger ndx resist for entry short on the weaker spx
131
7955 XOM swing short trgt if able to cover down there, last 8170,,,may need to cover higher and re-enter, unsure,,hodling for now
125
GLD is testing resistance here, a break over 147.50 suggests targets of 146.80,,148.74,,,149.73
123
SPX ES appear to be forming a short scalp setup,,,not confirmed yet
118
XOM still has 2 more hours in its "short swing any rally, or hold swing shorts from 8180--8200ish"
115
time analysis,,,OIL is nearing the end of its "bullish 4 hour timeframe",,,watching reactions up here to see if more sideways, up or down,,,may need pb in oil
1053
bias down intraday atm,,,imo,,agressive shorts could work but i'm on the sidelines
1051
seems like spx stuck in no mans land here for scalps,,,waiting for a move higher to short,,,or lower to go long, scalp,,, may not get a scalp setup all day today
1024
timing analysis suggests short bias in XOM for next 4 hours,,,sideways or lower,,,if lower will observe reactions to see if it bases or not,,, xom may go higher in next 4 hours,,, may not breakdown right away,,,but imo thats a shortable bounce
1020
referring to 60min and daily charts for spx,,,not 3min charts
1019
the first pullback in spx, for swings,,,will likely be buyable, then reverse to short the bounce for larger down later
1011
right now,,,xom and spx are both flat vs fridays close,,, but XOM "should be" higher than spx due to 2% higher oil prices,,,shows weakness relative in XOM
1009
xom strat is similar to my CAT long strategy, which went up 11%, more than spx,,,,except this is revers strat short
959
Gold is up nicely this morn, but has not yet hit its swing targets higher, holding still
956
OIL charts suggest a pullback then higher,,,,may be buyable after pullback,,may go higher first but looking for pb for poss long entry,, may take a few hours for pb, may not come today
expecting a pb in spx also,,, trading XOM for expected pb in dow spx and oil, seeing if XOM can outperform them on the downside
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, July 1, 2011
Friday thoughts
400
351
charts suggest to me a pullback, sideways, coming days, not nec a crash,,1312 spx will likely hold on test 1
338
1312 is spx support,,,1338 last
324
XOM broke under 8173,,,watching reaction now
321
shorted XOM here...didnt hit 8209 yet,,,high 8197,,,,last 8183
259
CAT hit 109 today, over 108 trgt from 97.30 entry for 11%(12%) move up,,,may pb in coming days,,,not adding anymore CAT atm,,holding final piece of CAT for now with tight stops
254
8187 last XOM
252
below 81.73 xom short looks good if 82.09 not filled
238
long gold via GLD 144.75 here,,,can also use 2x for more leverage
2:17pm
Short XOM 82.09 limit if able
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
| xom high of day target posted from earlier today was 82.09, high of day in xom ended up exatly at the 82.09 target :) , tho i swing shorted a bit lower at 81.83 when it started to stall as we neared the close |
351
charts suggest to me a pullback, sideways, coming days, not nec a crash,,1312 spx will likely hold on test 1
338
1312 is spx support,,,1338 last
324
XOM broke under 8173,,,watching reaction now
321
shorted XOM here...didnt hit 8209 yet,,,high 8197,,,,last 8183
259
CAT hit 109 today, over 108 trgt from 97.30 entry for 11%(12%) move up,,,may pb in coming days,,,not adding anymore CAT atm,,holding final piece of CAT for now with tight stops
254
8187 last XOM
252
below 81.73 xom short looks good if 82.09 not filled
238
long gold via GLD 144.75 here,,,can also use 2x for more leverage
2:17pm
Short XOM 82.09 limit if able
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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