Wedn thoughts

414
covering shorts on VXX from 50.00 around 4143--4145ish afterhours, for half the position, 20%ish profits,,, XIV would be 40%---CHRIS

409
but still holding half of HAL, sold half for 14% profit===CHRIS

408
i'm out of the uso,,,breakeven/ few cents profit or loss,,will look for other opps later---chris

345
out of half of hal at .67---chris

341
.61 stop---ok i will stop posting all this now--just manually trailing it tite as each new trgt hit--chris

340
.61 trgt next hal=chris

338
new HAL highs,, .46 stop

336
HAL overshot its 930 AM target by a few cents, and hasnt moved over it since,,wouldve been easier to just have kept the initial limit order LOL--chris

331
either HAL makes new daily highs or i'm taking profits on half--chris

331
stop .38 HAL==chris

327
HAL a few cents from high of day,,may make higher hi--chris

326
raising stop on half o HAL to 3619, tighter--chris

237
i will take profits on half of HAL before close, even if profit stop is not hit--chris

236
HAL now moving up to likely retest its high of day--chris

225
uso needs to be over 3880 in 9 minutes, last 3884==chris

224
loosening stop on oil uso temp==chris

219
uso .77 add,,,==chris

203
uso,,looking for .80ish to hold now --CHRIS

202
Came within 4 cents of USO stop, but it held, not stopped out,, 3882 last from 3871 drop (3867 stop),,may look to exit/re-enter

1253
over uso 3907 gives 3950 scalp trgt--chris

1249
over 101.12 oil,,it could pop nicely, last 100.83,,,needs to hold the support zone tho--chris

1248
oil looking like a spring setup,,watching, if these 3min candles continue

1243
100.50--100.70 oil support area--chris

1241
3893 in uso,,,chris

1238
now: uso above 3897 buy--chris

1225
OIL via USO above mkt buy stop 3904 could work with tite stop at 38.67,,,if willing to let yourself be stopped on loss and buy again lower--chris

1224
the next pullback on 3min oil chart may present a long opp, per the daily 60 and 15min charts, tho 15min suggests waiting

1151
nice 15min bull pennant (stronger than a flag) on HAL, if it holds,,,stops under support--CHRIS

1128
today, HAL is much stronger than DIG 2x etf, and DIG is now near its 60min support, so watching HAL for poss test of its support,,,,HAL must hold--CHRIS,,need to watch if the sector drags HAL lower

1123
looking for HAL to hold over 35.40--35.60 area,  if supp violated will take profits and look for reentry, last 36.03 up 7.5% today---CHRIS

1102
that SPY bull morn star candles and MACD hist PpP mentioned yesterday certainly played out with a huge surge higher==CHRIS

954
will sell HAL if oil hits 102.80 today,,,the correllation is not 1:1 between OIL: HAL or OIL:DIG as it is for OIL:USO==CHRIS

951
took AAP profits on half of positino,,will buy back lower--CHRIS

949
HAL just hit 36.49 or 2 cents over the 930am target of 3647==CHRIS

947
if stopped on AAP, i will take profits, and buy it back again lower, still see higher aap--chris

944
6872 stop on AAP

944
removing the .43 HAL lim sell and will manually trail tightly the stop instead, last 3637==CHRIS

943
3619 hal,,,considering the .23 trgt hit,,,seeing if it gets .47 next---now up 8% today==CHRIS

939
HAL stops tightened, and have limit order at 36.23/36.49 if it gets there by 1030am==CHRIS

935
3623 next HAL trgt if it can hold over 35.20

934
LOL overshot while typing--chris

932
HAL approaching 35.48 trgt, last 35.30,,expecting poss overshoot,will watrch reactions--CHRIS

918
i believe that actions at 940am,,1000am, and 1030am are important==CHRIS

903
Yesterday I posted a SPY 122.70 target, last SPY 123.65, well above target 1 and near the 122.85 second target,,,,will watch reactions in this .65---.85 area

OIL hit and exceeded its 101 target, still see possibly 103 and 107 and 109,,,watching reactions as it hits each target, for continuation higher or reversal lower.

902
atm theres a huge gap up opening: ES futures are trading up 3%,  HAL trading pre-market up 4.5% and up 11% from initial trgt entry,,,waiting for 930am to see AAP action, might make sense to take profits on half within the first hour,,,will watch reactions and trail the stops


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

357
hal 3365--watching to see if it moves up 30 cents into close--chris

352
that agg scalp didnt work--chris

350
agress scalp setup long es 1196.50 here 1194.75 stop into close==chris

346
currently ES over 1195, so bullish for 15min-chris

345
the candle pattern gives 1195 as the pivot into the close--CHRIS

341
with this candle pattern, not because its 3:41pm==chris

341
this 3min candle often determines the direction of the close, in this setup--chris

337
AAP may be waking up here,,watching for resist breaks higher--chris

328
1198 es still support into close imo--chris

327
for swings, over 6800 AAP should give the next 1 or 2 higher swing targets---6750 last,,,no change in HAL, still hovering near its highs up 3.3% from yest ==CHRIS

326
i'll keep half at breakeven, half at the tighter trail stop--chris

325
119775 new es stop--chrisd
may not be able to post all new stops due to speed of last hour--

322
 1198 new micro micro supp--chris

314
theres 1198 trgt, and broke higher,,,trailing the stop==CHRIS

313
need to keep close watch into close,since large moves can happen in last 1 hour==chris

312
mental stop 1195, needs to move higher now else risk lower brk of 1194 es==chris

304
over 1194 ES bullish imo,into close--CHRIS

258
now 3 min ES needs higher high candle, as stoch re-enters 80, and needs rsi 14 over 57, for bullish--chris

256
1198.25 above the mkt ES, should pop up higher--chris

254
tite stop 1194 if scalping....looser for more aggressive, for free ride higher if sotp holds==CHRIS

253
needs to be good for 3 candles on 3min to stay valid==chris

252
long here scale in 1195 es could work--into close--chris

250
ES intraday 1194 micro support...watching that level first--for into the close clues

245
15min ES suggesting higher, that next 3min pb is buyable if presents, imo--CHRIS

241
HAL 3min intraday chart--poss bull W, dbl bot, near its high of day now---CHRIS

237
oil going for its retest of 100 again now==chris

142
considering short at 122.70 SPY are if it gets up there (not today), last 120.29

133
SPY will has a bull morning star reversal candle pattern, a close today over yest hi would confirm the pattern, for candle followers (diff than macd hist setup)--CHRIS

HAL has the same

124
intraday buy program signal at 73% confid,,needs 78-80% to move, at es 1197===chris

1240
over 9850, oil is bullishj imo

1240
oil hit the 100 trgt and backed off as expectred---watching now the extent of decline, and if it makes another run for 100/101 ==chris

1229
still have 103 and 109 oil targets, same as last several days

1229
watching HAL when oil CL gets to 100, last HAL 3407, CL=9986, oil resist 1 at 100,,tho i think it will break higher after stall--chris

1218
AAP continues to lag, but still holding that swing longer--chris

1216
HAL hit the 34.01 trgt--watching reactions here---with ES under 1202 and Oil CL still under its resist, its favorable for HAL imo--HAL now up 3.78% from yest

1200
60min ES now has a possiible modified morphed bull 5 methods continuation candle pattern, using 7-8 candles not 5, similar to the midnight--4pm candle setup

1156
for those that follow macd hist bullish PpP, on SPY, yesterday the setup fired, and it needs a close today over yesterdays high to confirm it,,the setup suggests more upside in coming days for those that follow it,,, personally i just use it as one of many tools, not standalone==CHRIS

1142
hal 3391 is prior daily support that turned resist when the daily supp broke lower==CHRIS

1141
major resist test here on HAL at 33.91 now==watching reactions==CHRIS

1137
HAL 3477 hurdeled, 3401 next trgt, over that HAL can sail, now up 3.2% from yest---CHRIS

1129
still watching for HAL to get over 3377, last 3371---getting close==CHRIS

1029
AAP continues to lag spx today up .6% vs .9%, but the daily AAP is v strong and resisted/held during vicious spx downside==CHRIS

1027
HAL now up 2.7% vs spx SPY .91%==CHRIS

1026
threre it is,, HAL has broken, tho needs 3377 to sustain any higher,,,still see higher--last .68==CHRIS

1020
heres the test: HAL at 3360 prior high.,...es 1202==CHRIS

1018
OIL and SPX resist still a bit higher, while HAL at its resist early--CHRIS

1016
if HAL tests its yest hi and ES is under 1204, HAL may break higher on the first try--CHRIS

1013
llooking for HAL to test yesterdays high, and eventual break over it after poss stall==chris

1010
15min chart imo suggests waiting at least 4 candles b4 short,,up bias until then--,,even then i have no plan to short unless charts look diff--chris

955
HAL halburton is outperforming the spx this morn, hal up 1.5% vs .40% spy, DIG (related to HAL) also outperforming==CHRIS

949
AAP volume is very lite atm, still see next higher trgt

948
Oil futures CL and USO etf are on the move up, toward higher targets. last CL oil 99.18

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

1228
added aap 6692 area--chris

1200
AAP in a multimonth uptrend, and has held up very well despite spx carnage--chris

1155
i'm not trading options on AAP, but options viablity analysis and timing analysis suggests that AAP calls could work, it could make a nice move in the next 1-5 days, with possibly in 2 days (in addition to the multi-week hold swing timeframe).

1149
I will probably add today to my mid=term swing hold in AAP, showing "continue uptrend" setups on daily and 60min chart, with targets at 70/71/75, last 67.38==CHRIS

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

1105
AAP continues to show strength despite SPX weakness. AAP up 0.30% vs SPY down 1.66%.  I may add to AAP long today, but waiting, since it may want lower first.  last 67.13.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

332
DIG targets 44, 49, 55, last 41.18,,,similar for XOM--chris

327
determining targets for RAI a bit tricky given new 52 week highs today, but targeting 4200-4300 area. Last 4067, up 1.5%ish vs spx down 2%ish.... AAP also up a little also today

257
DIG and XOM look interesting here long swing

239
OIL, uso, has bounced of its daily midpoint Boll Band line, and now moving higher.,,,,still in daily uptrend and may make new highs in coming days.  Poss oil futures CL 110.

216
RAI just made a new 52 week high!  Tho its marginally higher than its prev 52 week high made just a few days ago, so watching reactions as the 52 week hi is tested. still see higher RAI, esp if spx bounces.

213
AAP also showing amazing strength, AAP is also green now, up 0.25% vs SPX down 2%

956
WOW Reynolds (RAI) continues to show amazing strength this morning; it is actually UP higher 0.5% despite the vicsious gap down in the Dow, which is down over 200 points

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

337
vix also hit its targets yest,,v high yest,,why i exited tvix and vxx yest,,tvix hit 6400 trgt from week ago--that was fun,,,50.00 to 62.00 tvix swing

333
VIX down 6% vs SPY flat==chris,, careful short, SPX may catch up to vix by higher spx

319
VIX looks like 4 hours more bearish sideways pattern imo==CHRIS

316
AAP which I bought this morning had a bullish harami yest (daily chart) that is confirmed today, tho thats not why i bought it---but gives a picture---chris

258
still in RAI, stop was .63,,,low today .67, survived by 4 cents last 40.13--chris

254
technically imo the 60min and daily chart of RAI look strong, it has held up during the vicious spx downside, also notice that 60min 14,3,3 stoch have gone from 80 to 20, with only a small decline, a sign of strength,,,while the rsi stayed over 50 despite the stoch decline,,, macd hist on 60min is moving higher, daily macd hist and macd are bullish, daily stoch is over 80 but can stay there longer---CHRIS

253
60min RAI reynolds inc: bull flag, ==CHRIS
 its trying to break higher today on the flag

201
took profit,,uso stop hit .64,,,last .55,,,may buy back later---chris

156
stop 3764 uso for a free ride higher, or 14 cents small lil profit if stopped--chris

154
oil creeping higher,,3727 raising uso stop raised again,,,chris

133
still have RAI   AAP   RIMM  USO

132
still holding the new oil long (reverse from short cover) with stop in place, watching reactions here, trying to bounce==chris

1247
oil 15min charts have sideways up bounce bias for next 3-4 candles, if this pattern plays out, in CL and USO===chris,,but keeping stop tite since oil can make fast vicious moves either way--chris

1233
changed lil lower to 3713 stop for now, uso---chris

1232
in uso 3750 stop 3722==chris

1221
over 3750/3800ish USO oil long opp may present, just idea, no entries, re-entry short instead could also present, staying on the sidelines for now----chris

1218
oil long may actually present an opp, on sidelines for now==chris

1217
out of sco for now,,,will eval re-entry later,,,being cautious,,oil may want $109 later--chris

1210
4088 stop sco

1209
took off half sco, other half tite stop now,,can always re-enter--chris

1206
4110 trgt considered hit, 4108 last, sco---chris

1200
4090--4110ish sco next resist trgt

1157
sco watching 4022 sco support, may exit on break under that, but hard stop set lower in case of fast decline---CHRIS

1155
3963 raised sco stop again, last 40.55===chris

1134
rasising stop again on SCO to 39.34, last 40.18

1050
newly enetered AAP making new daily highs, to fill gap==chris

1031
RAI still barely over its stop, i will not change the stop, but holding up despite SPX weakness---chris

1012
3963 same stop on rai from yest, 3979 last, may get stopped out. i still like RAI but if stop hit, i'll take the small loss and look to re-enter again later---chris

1010
3888 stop raised on sco (bear oil etf 2x), if stopped out will re-eval,, looking for confirm today of bull eve star on sco (bearish for oil)==chris

955
stop 6639 on AAP advance auto parts=chris

954
long aap 6750, swing==chris

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

352
rimm part 2 added 1851==chris

321
Long in RAI reynolds 40.04. stop 39.63.

1244
added sso 4350, buy #2

1203
the 4 hour bearish period from last nite 355pm on spx is close to expiring,,,watching reactions now,,may base and bounce---chris

1145
sco (etf to short oil) has a bullish sco morning star daily reversal higher pattern, higher sco, lower oil---chyris

1143
may see 2 more up candles, the side, 3min chart==chrtis

1141
sso approaching trgt 1 now 4500,,,watching reactrions here===chris

1135
next 4 candles on es 3min chart impt==watching,,,should have a bullish bias for continuatino of pattern validity--chris

1131
4500 sso trgt b4 tthe 4547==chris

1129
i have order for 4547 lim sell sso if it hits there==chris,,,may need to exit lower, all depends on charts

1126
3min candle pattern for es sso scalp spx playing out, for now, watching--chris

1120
next 4 candles on 3min ES sideways bias, then 4 after that bullish, if this pattern plays out---chris

1109
i was filled right at the 3min candle low of .56,,,looking for higher sso now

1108
on the daily, looks like rimmm broke resist 1 and tested resist 2 and is now pulling back to support zones==chris

1106
sso 44.56 i will go long if it hits there

1104
rimm still has a 2 hour bearish bias tho, so could move lower first==chris

1056
watching next 3 to 6 candles on 3min ES chart===sideways,,may present long scalp opp==chris

1053
1240 and 1246 trgt,==chris

1049
es tested 1236 again,,,it will likely break it higher--1233 last

1034
if ES tests 1236 it will likely break it higher--chris

959
the daily ES triangle is too sloppy to be a coil, may also be a desc triangle instead--chris

956
my charts from yest 355pm are still on 4 hour sideways bear bias as posted, but not spot for new shorts imo,,after 4 period or within may base and bounce===chris,,, yest the charts suggested lower today but they also didn't look right, not all confirmations were in place, so didnt short yest close unfortunately===chris

951
5920 finally exited last half of tvix from 50.00 for 9.20 or 18% profit last few days===chris,, it may go higher, to original 60.00 and 62/62 trgts, but took profits, can always reload later,,,a vxx short opp may even present instead==chris

939
rimm is a swing: trgts 2014, 2140, 2388==chris, charts suggest higher rimm imo, also market maker reports suggest accumulation

933
long RIMM 19.16==chris

928
Swing Oil short at 102.50 (CL futures price) could work if it gets back up there. last 101.14

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

1235.25 stop from es short 1249---chris

4628 vxx,,,25% more off,,,25% left===chrsi

336
4% on vxx daytrade, 8% profit using tvix,,,still keeping the swing piewce of tvix longer===CHRIS

335
took off half the vxx scalp here

333
1239ish es,,,tightening stop now as ES at support, on scalp short from 1249==chris

318
:)
there goes the vxx,,,tvix,,,,also below the 1249 short, holding with tighter stop now==chris

154
vxx 4402==chris

147
out of BAC 605---chris

137
*601 and 599 stops on bac, watching it here--chris

136
stop 602 bac near breakeven, not moving, if doesnt move up, will be out--chris

113
BAC 6.03 long stop 5.93 or 5.96 could work, and possibly reverse short instead on stop

106
BAC close to impt support test at 5.99--6.03 area,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks---chris

1231
it's premature, not developed or confirmed yet, but SPX 60min chart seems to be entering into a period of 4-8 hours bearish bias---chris

1032
next five 3min candles often bearish with current pattern--chris

1030
at 1244 es 70 % confid sell prog alert on es here==chris,, again it needs 85% to move, 78% often provides entry

1020
more tvix here 5390 could work, to add to shares bought lower--chris

1012
if VIX gets over 33.50, watch out below on spx, last vix 32.64==CHRIS

959
1249 ES short area==chris

955
if it gets to 5340 "more" tvix could work, ==CHRIS

950
124.00 spy short target, may give cover short reverse long setup if gets there--chris

935
1234 ES support impt, prior low---over that bulls have chance, if bears press under it, could see much lower---chris

932
tvix up 7% from yeest close, on way to higher targets===chris

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

340
exiting tvix soon,, tite stop on it now, manual trailing the stop up==chris

221

tho tvix really needs to get over 5270 to move agressively higher,last 5235==chris



220
TVIX now breaking higher,,,ES should breakdown==1257 lst es==chris

219
vxx flat 15min chart vs up on spx, often bearish setup on spx==chris

128
last tvix 5200...targets are 5380, 5500, 5600, 6064==chris

121
1255 es looks breakable lower--chris

120
added TVIX here 52.10, swing scalp===chris

1215
also VXX finding support at its 5period MA on 60min chart,,,at or above that is bullish vxx tvix, bearish spx, anything can happen but larger spx moves higher usually happen when VXX is further away from its 5 MA on 60min charts==chris


1213
long opps swing for end of year dec rally may present later, but my charts are still on yesterdeays 355pm sell signal--chris

1211
or tvix buyable pullback if took profits b4

1209
1248 short es could work here===chris

1147
3min candles suggest 9 candles sideways bear bias under 1248==chris

1146
break under 1241 can see 1235 v fast intraday--chris

1143
bounce to 1248 or lower would still be bearish under 1248 imo--chris

1142
buit 15min chart suggests hold shorts at least 15min, and no longs b4 15min, to me---chris

1140
this 1242 supp test on es v impt intraday imo==chris...1242ish area is prior support low, and prev to that a resist high that broke higher

1134
tvix at 5542 still around 10% profit area, still have the eventual 6400ish trgt area swing eventually for 28% profit if hit===chris

1130
at es 1244, still in the 4 hour bearish bias period from yest 355pm, it may extend longer also, to 1235 and 1231 lower targets==chris

934
the TVIX is at about 10% profit on second half now, holding longer===chris

i still have a 4 hour bear bias on my spy charts, from 355pm yest,,,will hold the spy shorts swing, sds, tza,--CHRIS

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

356
can probably even get a scalp off part of it afterhours for 2-4 points, and hold rest swing==chris,, 85% of time, the 3:55 PM signals long/short give another pop in final 5 minutes, and afterhours, for fast scalp pieces (still to hold some swing of course for higher targets)

355
shorted 1250 here, and will add more b4 the close==chris

349
hoping es pops up another 5 points to short it there, if not, BELOW the market 1248 es I will short

348
new entries tvix 5280ish here could work as swing too, tho i already have some from lower so not adding---chris

336
shorting spx via spy,,,sds at es 1254 if able--chris

201
using the vix, and other spx charts,,,i would wait at least 4 hours b4 long swings,,,,vix still has the bullish next 4 houyrs chart,,,same chart as fridays SPY bearish for monday chart,,,fwiw---chris

155
1248 ES===70% confid on a sell program intraday==chris,,,neeeds 85% to move, and 74--78% to act, observation only, not tradeable imo--chris

152
3 min chart imo suggests waiting at least 5 candles more on 3min b4 long entry---chris

150
1251 ES suggests 1257, else lower--chris

148
while ES is under 1250 and 1259 it is bearish imo==CHRIS

131
low risk trade could be tvix here 5351 stop 5339, ==chris
 i like wider stops but that could work

123
 the "initial" low volume toady at this point, could also be bearish sign, since its the first low volume==chris
there are "more sellers", and "no buyers"==chris
but there IS a bullish diverg on 15min ES spy charts, so watching to see if this small intraday rectangle breaks higher or lower---chris

1250
SPX is still in its 4 hour bearish period posted Friday at 3:55PM. May extend another 4-8 hours, unsure of charts atm.

12:45
Earlier today, TVIX hit its first trgt of 54.40 from Friday's entry, still see the higher targets in coming hours days. SCO oil short also up 3%ish today, still see higher sco lower oil. Gold is down 1% and has not hit target or stop.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

339
its the same setup as Nov 8 had, when i shorted spx at the close

338
nothing before the close will change the chart--chris

337
fwiw, my SPX SPY charts swing just changed to a bearish bias for next 8 trading hours---CHRIS

302
still have the first trgt on TVIX at 5440 from 50.00, last 5095, order in place to sell a piece of it, if it gets there===chris

257
added part 2 of oil short finally at 99.00 oil===chris

255
vix "should be" around 27 with spx here,,,but vix is at 30ish,,,bearish for spx swings imo--bullish for vxx tvixchris

120
i might add oil shorts: under 98, or at 99, nothing yet, swing--- (using /CL futures for analysis_)

100
LOL still nothing changed i see---24 candles still not done===CHRIS...VIX has closed 15min candle over 30.25,,no reactions yet, but VIX warning still valid for swings, imo-

1145
3 min chart suggests we might need to wait another 24 candles for anything downside, thats a lot of candles if the pattern is correct ---chris

1143
its def a concern for bulls that vix not moving lower today after the open, as spx moved up, imo--chris

1140
vix approaching 3025 trgt, 3022 last---if it holds a 15min candle close over that, may close the gap---CHRIS

1121
if long, tightening stops here makes sense, imo---vix approaching 3025==CHRIS

1114
vix going sideways for its 4 hour period as expected, still a bit longer sideways, if it starts to move up before 1pm would be bullish vix==chris

1110
: VIX over 30.25 would be bearish for spx imo, intraday, last 29.99===but easier to buy vix instead of shorting, vxx, tvix==CHRIS

1101
wow the vxx and tvix are holding up intraday despite the spx runup--chris

1045
4960 filled on tvix==chris

1035
lim 49.60 i'll add more tvix, if it gets down there==chris

1027
ES testing its highs of day, but tvix not testing its lows,,,good for tvix==CHRIS

1019
then 57.50ish==chris

1017
tvix trgt 1 if able=54.50 for 8% profit if hit, from entry this morning==CHRIS

1005
1259.50--shorted, close enough

1003
theres near 1260 es short trgt==chris

956
1260 es poss short at resist--chris

951
VIX swing chart calls for sideways movement for next 4 hours--if instead the VIX starts to go higher, i might initiate new short positions in stocks or etfs, and long vxx tvix swing---chris

947
as they develop, watching the first 30 min vol bar, and 60 min vol bar, and compare to prior--CHRIS

937
in tvix again. 50.40.===chris

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

323
5775...5900 tvix trgts==chris

303
1235 and 1238 resis, under that bearish into close,,,over could stage a rally, bias down imo----chris

259
there she goes,,,1231 next :D
257
THERES 1234.50--watching for expected break but not confirmed...chris

254
BELOW the market ,,,at es 1233.75 short could work==chris

247
1234 es has held,,,but chances favor a break lower if it tests it again, may not survive another test, but for now is holding--chris

239
1234 trgt being tested now on this nasty candle--chris...now watching for green bull harami ,,or another red one

236
uh oh poss nsaty 3min ex candle forming now--watching how it closes this and next one--chris

226
but so far the 1234 es support holding--chris

222
if 1234/32 es breaks lower,,may not see over it for rest of day===chris

213
es held the 1234 support test at 1235,,but dangerous here,,needs to hold it,,,lower v poss on es---chris

211
crazy wild V on sco 3min (oil)---chris

206
bulls need a higher low,,they do not want to let it get to 1232 es again imo==chris

205
there it is, down,,,,under 1240 suggests 3 more red candles===if stays under--chris

203
this is potentially bad sign: premature bull failure on the 3min candle count here==chris,,shouldve had 2 green candles here

200
bulls need to break 1251 ES to get any real upside traction---chris

155
thats the third candle,,,now watching what happens===chris

150
heres the 1238 es test....watching support reaction here,,,breakable imo---chris

146
sideways bearish on 3min es now ,,next 4 candles on 3min chart==chris

145
1238 trgt test on es,,,needs to hold around there else lower imo...watching if it tests or not---chris

130
watch for pullback in es intraday off the 1242 resist--chris

119
added tvix 5500 here==chris

1236
tvix  60.00 trgt, l;ast 5915, then same higher ones==chris

1234
Market Maker reports suggest they are buying VXX, should be good for the related TVIX==CHRIS, bearish for spx

1148
bought tvix back 5770==chris

1135
5940 stop hit on tvix, only 8% profit on that piece,,still have 25% left==chris

1131
9 candles expired, needs more time to decide ES--chris

1129
here 5990 tvix could work, but high risk aggressive only---chris

1122
8 more minutes left, on prior 9 candle count--chris

1121
76% now

1120
1229 es needs to hold, else prob retest daily low, or make lower low--chris

1113
here at 1232 es,,,,74% confid sell prog alert----chris

1109
agressive could short 1232 es=chris

1106
5907 likely if 5940 breaks==chris

1105
close to 5940 stop---may get stopped out, tho holding atm, 5994 last tvix

1100
on this pattern, the next 9 candles or so on 3min, may determine if this is a trend down day

1059
3min chart suggests waiting at least 9 candles b4 long es, imo---chris,,see what it does in meantinme

1055
6100 is newly created support on tvix,,,if it can hold that would be v bullish on tvix,,,often does not hold the new support,,watching the expected chop in 61-62 area,,if 61 holds it may not look back until after 64===chris

1049
stretch tvix trgt is 69.00ish. last 6219==chris

1036
*5940 stop on 25%

1035
stop 5980 on 25% of tvix, 5730 on second remaingn 25%

1034
now watching 6100--6200 chop zone on tvix, watching reactions==chris

1032
tvix now near trgt #3 but not taking profits on this trgt,,,instead using manual trailing stop--only have half left, at 11% profit from 930 am==chris

1028
up 9-10%ish from 9am now,,,5730/5800 stop on remaining half tvix, shile awaiting higher targets,,,60.00 last==chris

1020
5750 supp,, 61.12 next resist trgt higher

1019
close enough to tvix 6040 trgt :)==still see the higher trgts, tighten stops==chris

1016
if es 1230 breaks, then 1220 trgt lower==CHRIS

958
tvix next 6040 trgt, last 5915 over 5870 trgt==chris

957
close enough...copnisdering TVIX trgt 1 hit, at 6.5%ish move up profit from entry,,holding 75% shares still---to keep selling at each trgt or near it==CHRIS

950
tvix 55.20 suppp...resist trgt 1 58.70, last 5755 from 5508 entry this morn===chris

948
3min bear shoot star-es==chris

941
5870 first trgt tvix, up to 65 later

931
in TVIX 5508==chris


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday thoughts

344
DX remains over the trgt to stay over 78, atm,,watching==CHRIS

305
esp if DX is over 7800 at 4:15pm today==chris

304
bnc possible tomorrow, but i may short the close,,,see lower spx now conming==CHRIS

237
then 79ish and 81ish trgts on dollar DX

235
7830 us dollar DX trgt test of 9/12 high (may have just tested), then higher on break over it==chris

232
as the dollar stages its expected rally, EUO up 4.3% today, UUP up 1.83==CHRIS

226
stopped out of MRK, took loss of 1%osh==CHRIS

209
.66 stop (below .67)

208
added mrk .75, stop .67,,,low risk,,,either support holds or i'm out with loss===chris

1102
MRK not down much today, only down 0.09% vs 2.38% down for SPY==chris,,  a few cents higher and MRK will be green vs yest

1059
35.22 MRK trgt to sell to take profits from 34.30 if it hits that today==CHRIS

1030
long in MRK 34.30 instead of SPY==chris,,using mrk dow component instead==chris

1022
if ES is over 1240 at 1031am, would be bullish imo for higher bounce, per 3min and 15   60 min charts==chris

1003
stopped out, took profits on shorts, may go lower but a 32 point drop is a lot--CHRIS

1001
at 1241 now,,may get stopped out, 1241.25 is stop

959
1241.25 es stop for shorts, 1238.75 last=chris

956
sco moving now, up 4.63 % from yest==chris

953
Watching 1237 and 1232 ES trgts lower, may take profit on second half of shorts there (from yest entry), stop tightened in case of sudden surge higher to protect profits--CHRIS

Possible setup to reverse and enter long later today, no entry yet, no confirmed setup


942
next DX us dollar futures trgt 7830--if it hurdles that dollar should rally nicely higher and push oil lower

939
still have short oil, red atm but still see lower oil, higher sco--oil is lower this morn, sco higher,,have not added to sco, may add later today--CHRIS

7:12a.m.
ES is down hard now 28 points. Took profits on shorts entered yesterday for half the position. Holding half still.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

1252
next 3 candles on 3min es should be bearish, if this pattern plays out==CHRIS

1248
sell alert now at 78% confid from 74%==CHRIS

1246
possible SPY bear dark cloud cover or bear engulfing forming on the daily candle, pre-mature, just something to watch,,,if we get engulfing i will likely add shorts 355pm-ish==CHRIS

1229
es 1257--sell prog alert at 74% confid, less reliable on this volume low tho--chris

1226
watching next 6 candles on ES 3min chart==chris

1224
sideways bearish bias on spx imo for next 4 hours or so, unless charts change---chris

1215
1257.50 shorting ES==chris

1123
Oil (CL futures, USO etf) is getting turbulent and looking like its almost ready to correct lower. Allthough SCO is up 0.65% higher today, My oil short via SCO is still red atm, but i am holding it longer. I did not add more SCO yesterday, I may add to the position today. Also looking at a possible long entry US Dollar (via UUP or similar, or EUO).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

155
es long  1242 es stop 1240.75==chris

126
es spx spy sso stopped out for now, small profit on scalp,,,will re-eval reentry---chris

119
tightend up stop to 0.5 points on es scalp to protect ===chris

113
lim  ES 1244 i will sell the es scalp from 1238 and 1243 and re-eval later for re-entry in swings==chris

1224
adding part 2 here es 1238-chris

1153
es bearish intraday under 1247-needs to get over that for real traction higher==chris,, the long at 1243 is early entry

1148
1243 long ES--chris

1051
took profits on PAG 2130, didnt hit trgt but not moving right, so taking the small profit==chris

1029
Bounce alsert intraday here at es 1248, at 74% confid==chris,,, needs 78% and 85% to move=

1017
in the 6th candle now ,,watching if the pattern follows thru with a few basing candles, then bounce up on ES,,atm pattern working--CHRIS

1013
2 more candles on 3min--chris

1001
watching next 6 candles on 3min ES for sideways down, then bounce, then poss shortable bounce after 6-18 candles depending on charts atm

1000
PAG penske short marginally small profit atm, still holding longer, tho it hasnt moved yet,,needs to do something in next day or so

957
: i mentioned it was an early entry on oil,,shouldve waited but it gave a false breakout on 60min=chris

955
conversely oil is higher, so short red atm, but holding as i still see a correction in oil and dollar, may add more sco

953
ES up .34% this morn, still in the "upward bias for 4 hours longer" posted on 2:26 PM Friday.
The bias may be trunctated, watching charts. Over 1250 intraday bullish imo,, under that may crack.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

322
PAG cracking again :)==chris

311
if 124350 es break suggests move to low of day or lower--chris

237
if es hits 1246.75 then will go to 78% confid, from the 1250 signal--chris

234
es sell alert 74% confid at 1250 es===needs 85% to move--chris

226
the could change before the close, right now my swing charts suggest that SPY SPX need another 4 hours of bias to downside for monday, even if it moves higher today,

225
mini bull dbl bot W on SCO 3min,,but its only on 3min chart so isnt as strong--chris

219
the vol is too low now, i'm waiting until it picks up to decide on more trades,,,the only reason i entered oil with this vol is because i was watching it last few days waiting---chris
---should know more at 3pm


211
such low vol makes it hard to judge,,i think we move lower on es spx tho, into close---chris

but i'll hold the PAG short from yesterday, having taken 5%ish profit on spxu already earlier today--CHRIS

206
SCO calls or USO puts could work imo, tho i'm trading the underlying sco--chris

200
added part 2 of SCO buy 44.20ish for bear oil short swing--CHRIS

1213
60 min ES does have a bull hammer but its unconfirmed, and i think any rally if it is confirmed will be short lived---CHRIS

1209
sell signal warnings on the 3min chart imo, intraday, here at es 1242---CHRIS

1156
they could always ram ES SPX higher, but imo failure to go higher in the post-1030 AM timeframe today, with low vol, is bearish==CHRIS

1152
sco holding time est 1-5 days, prob 3 or less

1151
sco may go lower first, oil may still rally, but want to participate,,been watching a few days==chris

1150
bought sco, starter position, may add more, 4485ish, SCO is bear short oil--CHRIS

1037
manually trailing the stop on 3min chart now,,,to protect 5%+ profits----wont post all stops to avoid clutter,,=CHRIS

1032
still looking to short oil...has move down a little today,,,ideal setup would be lower, then short the bounce, swing---chris

1026
bounce on es poss here at the 1239 trgt,,if doesnt make over 1244,,es in trouble--chris

1023
4.5% on half of spxu from yest,,,holding other half,,,took profit at posted target---chris

1020
may take half off at 1239 es ,,,watching---chris

1019
1241 broke,,, ;) ,,,1239 es next trgt,,,if that breaks should get the 1231/32===chris

1015
a break of 1241 will invalidate the 3min sideways up bias on the 3min,,,a failed rally even if it goes higher--chris,, if 1241 es breaks, need to reset the candle count===chris

1014
if ES under 1250 at 10:33AM, would be bearish intraday, imo---watching 3 min candles----

1012
3min es suggests sideways higher bias, but rally likely to fail given patten on 15min imo---chris, at least on first try

1010
spxu from yest entry now at 3.5% profit,,,tightening stop on half,,,still will hold second half for the lower ES trgt 1231ish===CHRIS

1005
nice gentle bearish push (vs pierce below and pop higher) on SPY 15 min boll bands,,,suggests lower also

1001
I might short oil today before 3:58PM, been watching last few day---chris

940
we have a possible 4 hour down sideways bias setting up on spx es, not confirmed yet but forming--chris,, i would wait until 1000am or 1030am before new long entries, may go lower for 4 hours imo--chris

938
just missed the first PAG profit target on short, so lowering trgt now to 2060 instead, may go thru the first trgt to the second, if not will look to take smaller profit==CHRIS

935
1231 ES trgt if able

933
2092 PAG trgt

931
We gapped down as expected, may take profits on spx shorts and PAG shorts within first hour, or coming minutes,,watching charts for exit---CHRIS


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

343
1259 es,,,shorted to hold overnite===chris

350
see the big red candel on 60 min, followed by small green ones in rally? suggests spy is tired---chris

344
among other things, PAG has bear hammer (was harami earlier in day), at a time when spx seems tired on upside---chris,,,hence the short

341
took profits on honda,,,,,,,,,,,shorted PAG 21.56ish

330
by 358 PM, i plan to take profits on the HMC honda long, and to also enter a short of PAG, unsure of exact prices atm but will do by 358PM

306
Raised lim to 22.14 for new swing short on PAG if filled, will continue to adjust b4 the close today---chris

237
i dont know if i will get filled, but will short PAG 21.97,,,2140 last==chris

210
HMC honda approaching the 3050 trgt--the real action will come if it can break over 3050--watching reactinos here---CHRIS

136
/DX us dollar suggests that longs should be cautious here, tighten stops,,, dollar approaching support and if it rallies commodities and spx should fall---chris-- current .DX us dollar candle looks nasty but watching to see if it reverses or not

119
HMC step one accomplished: broke .25,,, now needs to break over .50 for first trgt higher--chris

118
es just hit its 1252 trgt,,,still have same higher trgts,,,resist test reaction impt here to see rejection or not,,,stall is ok if not vicious else could turn bearish===chris

1255
HMC is lagging the spx here today, but giving more time,,,if it clears the 2 resist areas it can move v fast,,theres an intraday gap up on the 3min chart also---chris

1251
1255 would not be a swing short area, tho its resist, imo (could scalp short it but will pass for now)===chris

1248
from 1217pm, still valid: es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris

1247
78% confid,,,buy program for es alert--chris,,needs 85% to really move but often 78% presents approp entry (intraday)

1241
SPY 60min chart: 5MA over the 15 MA, with 5 MA support at 124.60, last 124.93,,horiz supp 124.45 also, atm===CHRIS

1235
15min chart gave an extension: another 4 candles to wait b4 short, imo===chris,,,60min unchanged

1231
the last 5 candles on ES 15min chart are textbook bullish rising 3 methods continuation pattern. watching to see if it causes higher ES spx or not via confirmation.---chris

picture      http://www.hotcandlestick.com/directory/Bullish%20Rising%20Three%20Methods.htm

1221
if es 15min candle next closes over 1246, will have bull rising 3 methods continuation pattern, still forming and uncconfired, pattern would be broken on break of 15min support--CHRIS

1218
under 1242==could pb lower---chris

1217
es over 1248.50 would gives 1252 and 1254 trgts---chris

1212
15min chart forming the 5 candle bull continuation pattern higher: rising methods, still baking, unconfirmed---modified pattern sometimes will only use 4 candles not 5

1208
3min spy suggest break higher could happen in next 4 candles/12min---chris

1136
us dollar weak atm, but chart suggest after 3-4 hours, it may present a long opp dollar, which would be bearish for spx and oil---chris

1131
15min ES says wait 4 more bars b4 short, imo--chris


1126
looking for entry to short oil, via sco--no setup yet but might enter before 3:58 PM today---BUT no entry yet, oil is at resist test and could surge higher, but if dollar gets stronger next few days, oil should fall harder, esp if the resist holds

1117
i have order to sell half (keep half) to take profits on HMC honda swing entered yest: lim sell 30.98, stop 29.11, l;ast 30.10==chris

1104
poss new swing longs in AGD  JCP  SRE  EXAS  EDZ  TWM   tza===CHRIS
poss new swing shorts in KMB   HGSI
No entries yet, that's just the focus list atm, may change
EDZ TZA "longs" are actually bear etfs

1049
Yest at the close i mentinoed that SPY 60min chart was biased in the bull sideways up for 4 more trading hours,,,still in that timeframe, waiting until it expires before any short, unless chart surges or changes--CHRIS

1018
 look at daily ES candle: huge doji-like with long tails both up and down---as the MACD hist near 0---chris

1000
1238 es test here v impt intraday, may bounce but trying to break lower,,,1238 is the prior breakout point---chris

955
just one indicator, but daily MACD hist on SPY is ready to cross under 0, possibly today,,,BUT the day of the cross and following day(s) often are chop whipsaw days, historically---but cant base decisions on 1 indicator, price is king and trumps all else

951
my charts say swing short spx setup may come today or tomorrow, imo,,,still setting up and baking---CHRIS

943
Still have HMC long from yest. I needs to hurdle over 30.50 to get upside traction to higher targets. last 30.10. still a valid long setup imo, may add more to this position later today depending on charts. same targets and stops as yesterday/

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

319
3040/3050 stall on hmc would be normal--chris

244
i usually like to trade stocks over 1M and over 5M daily, with some exceptions,,,honda is about 1Million but still seems pokey compared to SPY of course---chris

240
HMC has same long pattern for 1-3 day hold that it had on 9/23,,,10/4 and 10/21, idk if it pops or not but it did last 3 times

232
HMC has chance of gap up tomorrow or next day, or hitting target within 3 days, if setup works---chris

212
got HMC 28.98--30.02 varous fills---chris

200
i'm going to go long HMC honda today sometime between now and 3:58 PM, looking for entry, for swing---target 31.07, 32.00ish, with stop around 29.11ish

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".