336
next week,,,poss buying opp in V visa long
301
theres 4021 VZ trgt,,,watching to see if makes new highs over .25 now
256
raising sell price on VZ to 4097 from 4047 for now,,,give it room to surge,,prob wont but giving room,,,will sell lower b4 the close if needed, VZ made new 52 week hi today
253
if vz hits .21,,,its likely to break over its .25 high of day for a new high
226
there goes oil lower,,,big red candle 15min,,,watching if it breaks support test lower or not
225
WOW ,,,VZ is holding its ground here :) despite down in ES SPX
219
ready to take profits intraday on VZ on sign of weaknes,,then buy bak lower
219
Market Maker reports on VZ intraday say they tried to push it lower, are now willing to pay higher,,around 4011,,,but i fear they really want to buy at 3975 area (prior level today they had, but didnt get)...watching intraday here
215
tough for VZ tho,,,VZ 15min chart is moving higher, but ES 15min chart doing lower is creating a drag on VZ,,nonetheless VZ doing well despite that
214
at 4015,,just got intraday buy signal for pop higher on VZ, 74% confidence,,needs 78 then 85% to move
1223
the VZ 3min chart has now changed, and it gives a 40.44 trgt on a break over 40.26, which is close to yesterday 40.47 sell trgt
1220
oil intraday support zone at 9880--9920,,,if that breaks lower, oil becomes more bearish
1155
i might try TNA scalp on next pullback, not ready yet here,,maybe at 74.25ish IWM area on the TNA
1141
4083 stretch trgt today for VZ, but will still sell lower at 4047 if able, last 4021, the 60min measured trgt is 40.38
1131
but VZ timing analysis suggests bullish bias next 4 hours,,so maybe drift higher first, then lower, then new highs
1130
Market Maker reports on VZ, imo, suggest that the MM are going to try to push the VZ price lower if able, so they can buy more shares... its a bullish report
1118
if SPX does decide to go higher in coming weeks, a look at the charts since Nov. 25 suggest that it may do so in the form of a bearish rising wedge
1106
vz hit 4014 mini trgt :)
1055
40.14 mini trgt now on vz, last 4007
but will sell at 4047 not here
1053
VZ near testing yest hi now,,,chart pattern has enough energy to break it on the first try, then convert to a wedge intraday,,watching reactions. Buyers should be waiting in the 39.74 area if it pulls back first instead, on a pb I might add more shares, unsure atm
1039
a break over 40.11 then 40.28 should give the first trgt 40.47 on VZ, last 40.00...may stall here at resistance,prior daily high area
1038
TLT daily candles, is doing what i think the VZ daily candles will do in comming day(s)
1030
TLT continues higher, up .83, toward its 122 trgt. 121.69 last...tho I closed TLT yesterday i'm still watching it,,,may re-enter again later
1022
sco oil shorts i'm holding longer, with looser stops. VZ i'm trading more actively. diff strategies
1021
if it gets there, I will sell VZ at 40.47 target, and then look to buy back again later
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 30, 2011
Oil charts
Charts below show simple horizontal supports and resistances. Oil has been very good about reacting to these levels.
Other oil charts with trendlines, etc may be posted later.
Right now, the main level I'm looking at is 92.58. If that breaks, oil could plunge lower. 92.58 held on a recent test, but that level "area" has been important since January, as the red line shows.
Click on chart to see a larger size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Other oil charts with trendlines, etc may be posted later.
Right now, the main level I'm looking at is 92.58. If that breaks, oil could plunge lower. 92.58 held on a recent test, but that level "area" has been important since January, as the red line shows.
Click on chart to see a larger size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 29, 2011
AA Short (possible entry)
AA - Considering SHORT at 8.77-- 8.98 area, if it can get a bounce on 60 min chart, possible entry on Friday per timing analysis.
AA Chart -- Double Click the chart for a larger view
Chart shows a bear coil that broke to downside, but the 60 min chart also shows a bullish falling wedge. So lower is expected but the wedge warns that the shorts must be monitored and exited at the right time. But there is still plenty of room in the wedge for lower prices, as long as the resistance levels hold. Not ready to short this yet, but will consider short on the next bounce, if it comes. No huge daily rsi bull divergence to worry about, if it looked like the Aug--Oct diverg I would consider long instead (actually I was long AA back then near Oct 6). Timing analysis suggests that in about 4 hours AA may bounce and start to level off (putting it as a possible Friday short entry).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
AA Chart -- Double Click the chart for a larger view
Chart shows a bear coil that broke to downside, but the 60 min chart also shows a bullish falling wedge. So lower is expected but the wedge warns that the shorts must be monitored and exited at the right time. But there is still plenty of room in the wedge for lower prices, as long as the resistance levels hold. Not ready to short this yet, but will consider short on the next bounce, if it comes. No huge daily rsi bull divergence to worry about, if it looked like the Aug--Oct diverg I would consider long instead (actually I was long AA back then near Oct 6). Timing analysis suggests that in about 4 hours AA may bounce and start to level off (putting it as a possible Friday short entry).
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thurs thoughts
SEE POST BELOW FOR CHARTS and thought on trading individual stocks in addition to etfs.
420
stop 39.66 on VZ,,if stopped out i will exit with a loss and re-enter later,,,still see higher VZ in coming days weeks
348
since Dec 5, VZ has not been below its 20 MA,,,barely below its 5 Moving Avg, on daily chart, even when DOW fell 400 points
342
not likely, but if VZ hits 4048 b4 the close i will sell half,,,
334
VZ is right at resist, closing near there or higher, tomorrow it could pop higher nicely
333
went long VZ for swing, at 40.00
303
out of TLT for now,,,will look to re-enter again later, stopped out for less than optimum profit
256
TVIX could work here, 3125ish
244
still on 74% ES sell signal into close
239
TLT hit 121.06,,,qatching for .23 next, then .89
234
sell signal just triggered on ES at 74% confid at 1254.50
230
if 121.05 TLT break gives pop trgt of 121.24,,,still waiting on the 121.89 for now tho
220
73% confidence level signal just triggerd, for long treasuries,higher..at TLT 120.85
218
they are trying for a 15min bull inv HS on OIL futures,,,i think it will fail tho,,,see lower oil per daily and 60min charts,,,but watching the poss bullish formation nonetheless
154
oil shortable here 9960, imo
150
stop at 120.69 on TLT to guarantee some profit if it falls, if stopped out i will take profits and look to reload again, as i still see higher even if stopped
143
121.88 limit sell order on TLT, last 121.02
136
removing TLT lim sell 121.17===will do manually,,now,,i might not have time to buy it back today, if it hits trgt, so doing manual
134
tho oil is barely green, unlike spx
133
OIL has rallied sharply higher here,,,still see another turn lower in oil later
129
its more applicable to swings than intraday,,,but TLT and SPY SPX are both green today,,,for swings,,,rarely does TLT lose the battle---bond traders are the smartest of all and generally win
126
1251 first trgt from 1255 es===watching if 1251 holds if tested,,break of 1249 could be trouble for ES
124
2689 TZA first trgt from 2614
123
with this candle pattern, TLT "should" have an upward bias for next 69 minutes
122
120.22 new target for active traders on TLT,,passive 122 trgt
119
120.99 TLT just hit its posted measured target..still see higher
117
TLT just hit .97, or 1 cent under prior limit order, but now raised to .14 higher
113
3min chart now have a measured 30 cent trgt on a break of .70, to 121.00,,still trying above that trgt for 121.14 for now, then 122, 124, 127
108
agressive 1255 ES short here could work,imo,,if willing to endure poss higher, to scale in
106
using daily and 60min charts,,,,ES is giving "almost" a short swing setup, but SPY is not,, needs more time b4 swing short imo,,but opp may present later
1253
also on TLT notice the upper Boll Band on 60min chart---now at 121.56 and pointing up not flat,,,and the last time TLT was at 121.56 was last tuesday, not recently,suggesting higher....the 121.56 is higher than the highest hi of the last 16 trading hours
1248
under 120.40 would still be ok for TLT swings,,,but over 120.40 (new resist now turned support, weaker intraday suppp) would be v bullish,imo
1246
TLT has broken over its 3min boll bands, on the way to test 15min upper BB at 121
1241
60min stoch on TLT is overbought over 80 but can stay there a few more hours,,,think it will revisit a higher move on the stoch, given the candle patterns bullish on the 60m
1238
121.14 TLT is new limit order to sell TLT, up from 120.97,,if it doesnt fill higher then may take the lower price,,,may move fast,,,next trgt 122
1218
TLT has hurdled the first .60 trgt,,,looking to sell half still at .97, last .62,,,should" see .97 quickly since the .60 broke
1148
i will take profits at 120.97 TLT if it gets there, then look for poss re-entry
1113
if TLT tlt hits 120.60, should see the 121 trgt quickly thereafter, last 120.42
1110
121 and 122 are TLT trgts initially
1020
fwiw,,,oil moving lower, and TLT moving higher, could present problems for SPX bulls
1019
alt, there are 3x etfs like TMF also but has lower volume
1018
tlt may be ready to pop higher here, tlt long or tbt short could work here for either swing or scalp
951
in TLT 120.36,m,, TLT is 1x long,,,TBT is 2x short,,, so need more shares in TLT to mimic 2 or 3x
948
i will buy TLT 120.12 limit if filled, last 120.34,,may pay higher price later if no fill
945
ES at impt test here now at 1250 resist,,,trying to break higher,,,longs might want to watch carefully and tighten stops in case it is rejected here
943
oil moving lower, still holding oil shorts via SCO swing,,,tested yest low with a small break lower, watching reactions in this area now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
420
stop 39.66 on VZ,,if stopped out i will exit with a loss and re-enter later,,,still see higher VZ in coming days weeks
348
since Dec 5, VZ has not been below its 20 MA,,,barely below its 5 Moving Avg, on daily chart, even when DOW fell 400 points
342
not likely, but if VZ hits 4048 b4 the close i will sell half,,,
334
VZ is right at resist, closing near there or higher, tomorrow it could pop higher nicely
333
went long VZ for swing, at 40.00
303
out of TLT for now,,,will look to re-enter again later, stopped out for less than optimum profit
256
TVIX could work here, 3125ish
244
still on 74% ES sell signal into close
239
TLT hit 121.06,,,qatching for .23 next, then .89
234
sell signal just triggered on ES at 74% confid at 1254.50
230
if 121.05 TLT break gives pop trgt of 121.24,,,still waiting on the 121.89 for now tho
220
73% confidence level signal just triggerd, for long treasuries,higher..at TLT 120.85
218
they are trying for a 15min bull inv HS on OIL futures,,,i think it will fail tho,,,see lower oil per daily and 60min charts,,,but watching the poss bullish formation nonetheless
154
oil shortable here 9960, imo
150
stop at 120.69 on TLT to guarantee some profit if it falls, if stopped out i will take profits and look to reload again, as i still see higher even if stopped
143
121.88 limit sell order on TLT, last 121.02
136
removing TLT lim sell 121.17===will do manually,,now,,i might not have time to buy it back today, if it hits trgt, so doing manual
134
tho oil is barely green, unlike spx
133
OIL has rallied sharply higher here,,,still see another turn lower in oil later
129
its more applicable to swings than intraday,,,but TLT and SPY SPX are both green today,,,for swings,,,rarely does TLT lose the battle---bond traders are the smartest of all and generally win
126
1251 first trgt from 1255 es===watching if 1251 holds if tested,,break of 1249 could be trouble for ES
124
2689 TZA first trgt from 2614
123
with this candle pattern, TLT "should" have an upward bias for next 69 minutes
122
120.22 new target for active traders on TLT,,passive 122 trgt
119
120.99 TLT just hit its posted measured target..still see higher
117
TLT just hit .97, or 1 cent under prior limit order, but now raised to .14 higher
113
3min chart now have a measured 30 cent trgt on a break of .70, to 121.00,,still trying above that trgt for 121.14 for now, then 122, 124, 127
108
agressive 1255 ES short here could work,imo,,if willing to endure poss higher, to scale in
106
using daily and 60min charts,,,,ES is giving "almost" a short swing setup, but SPY is not,, needs more time b4 swing short imo,,but opp may present later
1253
also on TLT notice the upper Boll Band on 60min chart---now at 121.56 and pointing up not flat,,,and the last time TLT was at 121.56 was last tuesday, not recently,suggesting higher....the 121.56 is higher than the highest hi of the last 16 trading hours
1248
under 120.40 would still be ok for TLT swings,,,but over 120.40 (new resist now turned support, weaker intraday suppp) would be v bullish,imo
1246
TLT has broken over its 3min boll bands, on the way to test 15min upper BB at 121
1241
60min stoch on TLT is overbought over 80 but can stay there a few more hours,,,think it will revisit a higher move on the stoch, given the candle patterns bullish on the 60m
1238
121.14 TLT is new limit order to sell TLT, up from 120.97,,if it doesnt fill higher then may take the lower price,,,may move fast,,,next trgt 122
1218
TLT has hurdled the first .60 trgt,,,looking to sell half still at .97, last .62,,,should" see .97 quickly since the .60 broke
1148
i will take profits at 120.97 TLT if it gets there, then look for poss re-entry
1113
if TLT tlt hits 120.60, should see the 121 trgt quickly thereafter, last 120.42
1110
121 and 122 are TLT trgts initially
1020
fwiw,,,oil moving lower, and TLT moving higher, could present problems for SPX bulls
1019
alt, there are 3x etfs like TMF also but has lower volume
1018
tlt may be ready to pop higher here, tlt long or tbt short could work here for either swing or scalp
951
in TLT 120.36,m,, TLT is 1x long,,,TBT is 2x short,,, so need more shares in TLT to mimic 2 or 3x
948
i will buy TLT 120.12 limit if filled, last 120.34,,may pay higher price later if no fill
945
ES at impt test here now at 1250 resist,,,trying to break higher,,,longs might want to watch carefully and tighten stops in case it is rejected here
943
oil moving lower, still holding oil shorts via SCO swing,,,tested yest low with a small break lower, watching reactions in this area now
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 28, 2011
Trading Individual Stocks in addition to Indices (DIA, SPY, QQQ)
I will possibly add more commentary here later. For now, some quick thoughts:
My posts often feature stocks from the Dow Jones 30 (as well as other Top 100 stocks, and small cap individual names as well). This post focuses on the Dow.
The charts below show daily, one year charts, but the same principles apply to shorter timeframes such as 60 minute charts. Trading high volume individual stocks is suitable for holding times from hours to months.
The charts below show how trading individual stocks (for multi-day swings, to multi-month positions) can easily outperform the S&P 500 (SPY), The Dow Jones (DIA), and the Nasdaq / Tech (QQQ).
For example, for longs, MCD McDonalds is up 30% this year, vs. 4.7% for the Dow (with SPY at 1% loss and QQQ up 1.68%).
Visa up 42%!
For example, for shorts, AA is DOWN 44% this year. Tremendous profits for those short AA.
In the Charts below, the Dow Jones is the blue line, for comparison. 1 year, daily charts.
Stocks in the charts below are currently in my focus list, which changes from time to time.
Bullish Stocks 1 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bullish Stocks 2 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bearish Stocks 1 of 1 (double click chart for larger full size)
Current Focus List for Dow.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
My posts often feature stocks from the Dow Jones 30 (as well as other Top 100 stocks, and small cap individual names as well). This post focuses on the Dow.
The charts below show daily, one year charts, but the same principles apply to shorter timeframes such as 60 minute charts. Trading high volume individual stocks is suitable for holding times from hours to months.
The charts below show how trading individual stocks (for multi-day swings, to multi-month positions) can easily outperform the S&P 500 (SPY), The Dow Jones (DIA), and the Nasdaq / Tech (QQQ).
For example, for longs, MCD McDonalds is up 30% this year, vs. 4.7% for the Dow (with SPY at 1% loss and QQQ up 1.68%).
Visa up 42%!
For example, for shorts, AA is DOWN 44% this year. Tremendous profits for those short AA.
In the Charts below, the Dow Jones is the blue line, for comparison. 1 year, daily charts.
Stocks in the charts below are currently in my focus list, which changes from time to time.
Bullish Stocks 1 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bullish Stocks 2 of 2 (double click chart for larger full size)
Bearish Stocks 1 of 1 (double click chart for larger full size)
Current Focus List for Dow.
BEARISH
***AA
***BAC
***HPQ
***JPM
BULLISH
***MCD
***IBM
***HD
***KFT
***PFE
***BA
***VZ
***WMT
***V (not in Dow but in this list for now)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wede thoughts
330
tza new highs,,,watching what it can do,,,posted b4 new highs poss in last 2 hours,,nothing fantastic yet, marginal only, but watching these reactions now
318
if 1244 es breaks, same trgts
246
73.47 IWM below the market may trigger selling, could do tza there (agressive_),,
243
if that ES 1243 breaks,,,could get nice downside continuation here
227
still holding sco (short oil)
226
scalp gave 27 cents on tza, about 1% profit in 30 minutes,,still holding swing tza for now
218
2677 tite stop makes sense if scalping tza
217
tho a volume divergence in oil may be forming now,unconfirmed, needs more time
217
oil also moving lower, and no volume diverg on oil yet, so still lower likely for swings
212
tighten stops if scalping tza from 2650,,looser for swings...this time of day,,,tza could make new highs,,2675 last
201
tza 2650 agress could work here
201
es 1248 sell signal warning 73% confid atm just triggered
144
from a swing perspective, tza 60min chart is only in "warning mode"...it will usually retest such warnings higher first
143
i have a "wait on more tza" setup,,,but holding half still
111
so 1244--1250 zone for es atm, until it breaks either way
111
conversely the 60min es is trying to form a BULL harami bounce candle pattern, so if it formed, that would negate the 15min pattern
107
the 15min ES has a modified bearish 5 methods continuation candle pattern on it, but not confirmed yet
100
(using distance between the 2 boll bands approx, tho doesnt line up with horiz or trendline resist)
1256
2730 intereim TZA trgt on break over 2693
1242
watching for poss tza entry at ES 1250-1251, see what it looks like
1227
poss tza long setup forming in 1--6minutes
1159
1240--1243 ES is its breakout higher area (from last wednesday/thurs),,,bulls need to hold that support else risk 1222 lower
1145
tza just hit 2688 swing trgt 2,,,,still have same higher ones
1144
ES is at 1245,,near the 1244 sell signal trgt,,,watching reactions here
1137
cl futures 60min chart does not have a volume diverg yet,,,heavy selling all 3 candles so far, suggests lower oil eventually
1134
Oil had a small break under yest low while i was typing, watching reactions now
1134
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
1132
oil sco is rocking now, up almost 4%,,near its swing trgt 1 but still far from trgt 2 higher
1127
oil---USO has a small break below yesterdays low,,,cl futures have not test its yest low yet,likely soon
1125
marginal break lower in DIA dow,
1124
heres the mini pullback to test ES support intraday,,,needs to hold 1248 else 1244 trgt
1052
sell alert on es at 74 % for intraday small move lower
1039
if tza can get over 2685 resist, and then get over 2717, trgt 2796ish
1038
tza hit 26.48,,,last 2663, still in, last 2666
1028
tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655,,tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655
1027
bulls need to hold es 1250 else 1244 lower likely test here
1021
TZA hit 2649, so considering the 2633 and 2649 trgt of resist as being hit,,,small candles here suggest higher tza still if it can consolod at resist, for next swing trgt higher
1003
ES 900am--10am vol higher today than yest but lower than last Mon,tues,wed vol
958
*2633--2650 first resist
957
watching reaction at tza 2645--2650 area of first resist,then 2690, then 2820
956
oil shorts may require holding a few days,swing,SCO
944
oil is moving lower nicely,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
tza new highs,,,watching what it can do,,,posted b4 new highs poss in last 2 hours,,nothing fantastic yet, marginal only, but watching these reactions now
318
if 1244 es breaks, same trgts
246
73.47 IWM below the market may trigger selling, could do tza there (agressive_),,
243
if that ES 1243 breaks,,,could get nice downside continuation here
227
still holding sco (short oil)
226
scalp gave 27 cents on tza, about 1% profit in 30 minutes,,still holding swing tza for now
218
2677 tite stop makes sense if scalping tza
217
tho a volume divergence in oil may be forming now,unconfirmed, needs more time
217
oil also moving lower, and no volume diverg on oil yet, so still lower likely for swings
212
tighten stops if scalping tza from 2650,,looser for swings...this time of day,,,tza could make new highs,,2675 last
201
tza 2650 agress could work here
201
es 1248 sell signal warning 73% confid atm just triggered
144
from a swing perspective, tza 60min chart is only in "warning mode"...it will usually retest such warnings higher first
143
i have a "wait on more tza" setup,,,but holding half still
111
so 1244--1250 zone for es atm, until it breaks either way
111
conversely the 60min es is trying to form a BULL harami bounce candle pattern, so if it formed, that would negate the 15min pattern
107
the 15min ES has a modified bearish 5 methods continuation candle pattern on it, but not confirmed yet
100
(using distance between the 2 boll bands approx, tho doesnt line up with horiz or trendline resist)
1256
2730 intereim TZA trgt on break over 2693
1242
watching for poss tza entry at ES 1250-1251, see what it looks like
1227
poss tza long setup forming in 1--6minutes
1159
1240--1243 ES is its breakout higher area (from last wednesday/thurs),,,bulls need to hold that support else risk 1222 lower
1145
tza just hit 2688 swing trgt 2,,,,still have same higher ones
1144
ES is at 1245,,near the 1244 sell signal trgt,,,watching reactions here
1137
cl futures 60min chart does not have a volume diverg yet,,,heavy selling all 3 candles so far, suggests lower oil eventually
1134
Oil had a small break under yest low while i was typing, watching reactions now
1134
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
oil has enough momentum, and is volatile enough, to break yesterdays low on first test try---watching reactions now
1132
oil sco is rocking now, up almost 4%,,near its swing trgt 1 but still far from trgt 2 higher
1127
oil---USO has a small break below yesterdays low,,,cl futures have not test its yest low yet,likely soon
1125
marginal break lower in DIA dow,
1124
heres the mini pullback to test ES support intraday,,,needs to hold 1248 else 1244 trgt
1052
sell alert on es at 74 % for intraday small move lower
1039
if tza can get over 2685 resist, and then get over 2717, trgt 2796ish
1038
tza hit 26.48,,,last 2663, still in, last 2666
1028
tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655,,tight stop on half of tza now, at 2646,,, last 2655
1027
bulls need to hold es 1250 else 1244 lower likely test here
1021
TZA hit 2649, so considering the 2633 and 2649 trgt of resist as being hit,,,small candles here suggest higher tza still if it can consolod at resist, for next swing trgt higher
1003
ES 900am--10am vol higher today than yest but lower than last Mon,tues,wed vol
958
*2633--2650 first resist
957
watching reaction at tza 2645--2650 area of first resist,then 2690, then 2820
956
oil shorts may require holding a few days,swing,SCO
944
oil is moving lower nicely,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 27, 2011
Tues thoughts
322
compare 15min and 3min VXX to ES,,is bearish for spx es
301
"someone" starting to buy puts?
300
intraday VXX:SPX diverg bearish for spx intraday charts
229
still at 72% confid sell on ES<,,,no change so far
221
first entry was around 14% profit using SCO,,,but need to give it time,,,oil moves suddenly down so need to "be in" a bit early
220
USO daily has a 3x bear diverg on price:rsi and price:macd, which suggests short oil swings could do very well on second entry,,first entry was around 14% profit using SCO
123
theres the 1260.75,,,watching for 1259 now
122
if es tests 1260.75,,likely will go lower to test 1259
106
72% confid on es sell signal
100
now past 1:00pm,,,watching ES to see if breaks 1259 intraday
1258
*1259
1257
at 1pm, es is likely to be over 1260, but could break a few minutes later lower,,,if under 1260 at 1pm in 3min may see some selling earlier sooner
1253
at 1262,ES sell signal at 70% confid, may move to 74% in next 2-12 minutes,,,needs 85% to really move
1244
6647 below the mkt short on CLX could work if it breaks, 6687 last
1242
if tza over 2553 suggests 2575 test,,,if it can get over 2580 it can move toward swing target territory
1229
101.30--103.50 oil futures resist CL
1228
additional oil shorts, swing, could work on next pop higher,,,or on a break of support lower,,,where i'll prob add sco
1228
753/754 TF resist
1223
they may try to sweep some stops by hitting under 2550 first
1221
tza 2552 here couild work, scalp or swing
1033
areas to poss add to short positions: ES 1259 below the mkt, or above mkt at 1267,,,, last 1263
1032
charts suggest short side to me, for multi-day /weeks swings, in spx, russel, oil
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
compare 15min and 3min VXX to ES,,is bearish for spx es
301
"someone" starting to buy puts?
300
intraday VXX:SPX diverg bearish for spx intraday charts
229
still at 72% confid sell on ES<,,,no change so far
221
first entry was around 14% profit using SCO,,,but need to give it time,,,oil moves suddenly down so need to "be in" a bit early
220
USO daily has a 3x bear diverg on price:rsi and price:macd, which suggests short oil swings could do very well on second entry,,first entry was around 14% profit using SCO
123
theres the 1260.75,,,watching for 1259 now
122
if es tests 1260.75,,likely will go lower to test 1259
106
72% confid on es sell signal
100
now past 1:00pm,,,watching ES to see if breaks 1259 intraday
1258
*1259
1257
at 1pm, es is likely to be over 1260, but could break a few minutes later lower,,,if under 1260 at 1pm in 3min may see some selling earlier sooner
1253
at 1262,ES sell signal at 70% confid, may move to 74% in next 2-12 minutes,,,needs 85% to really move
1244
6647 below the mkt short on CLX could work if it breaks, 6687 last
1242
if tza over 2553 suggests 2575 test,,,if it can get over 2580 it can move toward swing target territory
1229
101.30--103.50 oil futures resist CL
1228
additional oil shorts, swing, could work on next pop higher,,,or on a break of support lower,,,where i'll prob add sco
1228
753/754 TF resist
1223
they may try to sweep some stops by hitting under 2550 first
1221
tza 2552 here couild work, scalp or swing
1033
areas to poss add to short positions: ES 1259 below the mkt, or above mkt at 1267,,,, last 1263
1032
charts suggest short side to me, for multi-day /weeks swings, in spx, russel, oil
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 23, 2011
Friday thoughts
355
oil close to 100 but unable to get back over it,for now
352
pulled the asks to allow higher,,,unless the bid is also pulled
349
IWM now close to where MM are buying it,, but only to hold up price to sell into it
341
MM reports show they may buy a bit here, so they can sell more into strength
339
esp on the russel and small cap stocks
339
price rising but Mkt Maker reports show they r selling into this,,,could be bearish sign for next week
334
MM still on a gentle sell
327
sell signal intraday on iwm, es here,,could get modest pullback into todays close if it hits 78%, at 72% confid now
237
CLX daily candle atm is a bear gravestone doji on clorox
236
unlike ES SPX,,,oil CL futures are still below their 12/13 high
235
also holding oil shorts swing
235
i'm holding my shorts over weekend, unless a big selloff comes today (likely not selloff huge today)
213
diodnt last long, now back in sync,,,MM games LOL
212
hmm intradfay only, irrelev to swings, but Mkt Makers bids are closer to price than their ask (bullish while they play that game)...
201
SPY vol also v low as expected in holiday, the gaps on daily with low vol could present problems for bulls later
1205
tza 2591 here
1049
that is, the russel IWM charts suggest that a breakdown "might come", the 15min and 60min charts
1048
imo russel intraday now has a slightbearish bias, but not confirmed, needs to break supports to confirm
1047
under 7374 IWM I may short russel or do tza,,still have initial tza for now (red 2.5% atm)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
oil close to 100 but unable to get back over it,for now
352
pulled the asks to allow higher,,,unless the bid is also pulled
349
IWM now close to where MM are buying it,, but only to hold up price to sell into it
341
MM reports show they may buy a bit here, so they can sell more into strength
339
esp on the russel and small cap stocks
339
price rising but Mkt Maker reports show they r selling into this,,,could be bearish sign for next week
334
MM still on a gentle sell
327
sell signal intraday on iwm, es here,,could get modest pullback into todays close if it hits 78%, at 72% confid now
237
CLX daily candle atm is a bear gravestone doji on clorox
236
unlike ES SPX,,,oil CL futures are still below their 12/13 high
235
also holding oil shorts swing
235
i'm holding my shorts over weekend, unless a big selloff comes today (likely not selloff huge today)
213
diodnt last long, now back in sync,,,MM games LOL
212
hmm intradfay only, irrelev to swings, but Mkt Makers bids are closer to price than their ask (bullish while they play that game)...
201
SPY vol also v low as expected in holiday, the gaps on daily with low vol could present problems for bulls later
1205
tza 2591 here
1049
that is, the russel IWM charts suggest that a breakdown "might come", the 15min and 60min charts
1048
imo russel intraday now has a slightbearish bias, but not confirmed, needs to break supports to confirm
1047
under 7374 IWM I may short russel or do tza,,still have initial tza for now (red 2.5% atm)
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, December 21, 2011
Wedn thoughts
321
entry 2 on tza, 26.78
301
poss ES test of 1220 coming,,1233 last
259
bought tza here 27.21
150
SPY stoch on 60min is hanging out for too long over 80,,,needs to make a move higher else a correction lower is poss, the pullback may present a long opp on covering short
146
15min ES still bearish, under its downtrend line, but watching to see if that changes and a higher low develops, if so will exit shorts,,keeping for now,swing
1:17 PM
Still have shorts entered yesterday, holding longer. DXD TZA are up about 1% and 2%, SCO down 2% for now but still holding it
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
entry 2 on tza, 26.78
301
poss ES test of 1220 coming,,1233 last
259
bought tza here 27.21
150
SPY stoch on 60min is hanging out for too long over 80,,,needs to make a move higher else a correction lower is poss, the pullback may present a long opp on covering short
146
15min ES still bearish, under its downtrend line, but watching to see if that changes and a higher low develops, if so will exit shorts,,keeping for now,swing
1:17 PM
Still have shorts entered yesterday, holding longer. DXD TZA are up about 1% and 2%, SCO down 2% for now but still holding it
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, December 20, 2011
Tues thoughts
355
6545--shorted CLX (re-entered short covered yesterday at 65.00)
234
swing,,BELOW the mkt;;;97.17 oil short could work (i wont add there since i'm already short),,,last 97.27,,,could short USO or long SCO
230
heavy volume selling on 3min oil chart,,,watching reaction, could be impt into the close
217
oil 60min chart, weaker than spx es dow,,,may foreshadow lower spx as oil has tended to lead and move first recently
210
DOW JONES sell alert ,,,intraday, at 71% confid,,,,needs 78-85% to move more agressively, at DXD 1572
209
bulls need to hold es 1224,,,"should" hold on first test per support rules,,,failure to hold if it gets there, would be bad for bulls
208
Market Maker reports---they are still gently selling here,,,watching to see if increases or not
205
if SCO 15min chart can manage a triple top,,,it will likely break higher off the top (breakdown on USO oil) (that is bear triple top failure on sco ,,,to break higher not lower)
134
16.02 and 16.14 initial DXD (short dow) targets
127
Market Maker reports indicate they are beginning to sell here, small atm
125
3min chart on DOW is suggesting possible pullback, and it this time of day it could work nicely...will see
115
also using DXD at 15.65 to short Dow30
115
SHORTING at ES 1233 here, entry 1 of poss 2
113
there is a bearish volume:price divergence forming on SPY intraday as it makes higher prices here, still forming,, also a bearish MACD diverg on 15min charts
104
I will add more SCO lim 38.80 if it moves down there b4 moving higher, last 40.13,,,i may also add more at a higher price (esp if oil CL futures break under 9700/9688
1256
OIL futures CL have a possible bull pennant on the 15min chart,,,watching to see if it breaks to upside, then see lower oil even if breaks up first
1202
poss bull inv HS setting up on 3min and 15min SCO
1202
a 60min candle close over 40.50 and pref over 41.00 would confirm the bull harami on 60min sco (bear harami on oil USO)
1157
idea: watch oil---it will often lead ahead of the ES SPX TF russel qqq
1156
on the DAILY charts, we also have a possible bear eve star on USO oil, and bull morn star in SCO, forming
1155
a bull harami candle pattern is forming on 60min chart of SCO (bear harami in oil),,not confirmed or finished yet
1140
42.20 first sco trgt , last 40.32
1138
bulls need to hold over 1224 ES else could see larger pullback
1000
USO oil 15 min candle #2 is lower than candle 1 of today, oil moving lower tho of course could bounce, could foreshadow a pullback in SPX ES this morning,,oil often moves first
943
CL futures oil daily resist 97-98 area, hence the entry back short,,could go higher a bit more before lower
942
i see lower oil, then possible long entry later on covering
941
at 40.49 here, Buying back SCO i sold yesterday (oil short etf)
919
TNA jumped 6% overnight and is close enough to resist to take profit, so took the 6.1% profit from yest entry at close
900
premarket here,,Took profits on ES long entered yesterday at close, bought 1197.50, sold 1215. Also took profit on 75% of TNA bought at yest close.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
6545--shorted CLX (re-entered short covered yesterday at 65.00)
234
swing,,BELOW the mkt;;;97.17 oil short could work (i wont add there since i'm already short),,,last 97.27,,,could short USO or long SCO
230
heavy volume selling on 3min oil chart,,,watching reaction, could be impt into the close
217
oil 60min chart, weaker than spx es dow,,,may foreshadow lower spx as oil has tended to lead and move first recently
210
DOW JONES sell alert ,,,intraday, at 71% confid,,,,needs 78-85% to move more agressively, at DXD 1572
209
bulls need to hold es 1224,,,"should" hold on first test per support rules,,,failure to hold if it gets there, would be bad for bulls
208
Market Maker reports---they are still gently selling here,,,watching to see if increases or not
205
if SCO 15min chart can manage a triple top,,,it will likely break higher off the top (breakdown on USO oil) (that is bear triple top failure on sco ,,,to break higher not lower)
134
16.02 and 16.14 initial DXD (short dow) targets
127
Market Maker reports indicate they are beginning to sell here, small atm
125
3min chart on DOW is suggesting possible pullback, and it this time of day it could work nicely...will see
115
also using DXD at 15.65 to short Dow30
115
SHORTING at ES 1233 here, entry 1 of poss 2
113
there is a bearish volume:price divergence forming on SPY intraday as it makes higher prices here, still forming,, also a bearish MACD diverg on 15min charts
104
I will add more SCO lim 38.80 if it moves down there b4 moving higher, last 40.13,,,i may also add more at a higher price (esp if oil CL futures break under 9700/9688
1256
OIL futures CL have a possible bull pennant on the 15min chart,,,watching to see if it breaks to upside, then see lower oil even if breaks up first
1202
poss bull inv HS setting up on 3min and 15min SCO
1202
a 60min candle close over 40.50 and pref over 41.00 would confirm the bull harami on 60min sco (bear harami on oil USO)
1157
idea: watch oil---it will often lead ahead of the ES SPX TF russel qqq
1156
on the DAILY charts, we also have a possible bear eve star on USO oil, and bull morn star in SCO, forming
1155
a bull harami candle pattern is forming on 60min chart of SCO (bear harami in oil),,not confirmed or finished yet
1140
42.20 first sco trgt , last 40.32
1138
bulls need to hold over 1224 ES else could see larger pullback
1000
USO oil 15 min candle #2 is lower than candle 1 of today, oil moving lower tho of course could bounce, could foreshadow a pullback in SPX ES this morning,,oil often moves first
943
CL futures oil daily resist 97-98 area, hence the entry back short,,could go higher a bit more before lower
942
i see lower oil, then possible long entry later on covering
941
at 40.49 here, Buying back SCO i sold yesterday (oil short etf)
919
TNA jumped 6% overnight and is close enough to resist to take profit, so took the 6.1% profit from yest entry at close
900
premarket here,,Took profits on ES long entered yesterday at close, bought 1197.50, sold 1215. Also took profit on 75% of TNA bought at yest close.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 19, 2011
Monday thoughts
I did short ES 1215 to 1197.50 for 17 points on second half, and reversed long on covering short
reversed long now, at the close, smaller position to start, SSO
exited CLX for a small profit, near breakeven
1197.50 ES, out
2114 sds stop
2112 stop SDS raised again
345
sds stop raised again ,,,2102
342
stop on CLX short at 6507,,,either it stays down here or i'm out near breakeven (4 cent loss)
331
raised stop again, 2096, to lock profits, SDS
320
1202 new resist on es into the close, then 1209/11 resist==
315
1198 impt ES support, daily support horiz,,,needs to hold here, else lower,,,holding shorts for now
314
riding SDS higher, manual trail stop, new stop now 2087\
\
308
1204 intraday pivot broken :D
257
Quick charts, why I'm in SDS and SCO (/CL is oil futures).
Double click the chart for a larger view.
247
1204 and 1209/1211 are 2 pivots to look at going into close: under 1204 suggests lower, over 1209/11 higher,,bearish bias atm imo
221
sds dipped down but did not hit 2069 stop,,,still in sds, same stops and targets
119
ES 60 min chart does have a bull harami, but it's unconmfirmed, and other chart landscapes suggest the bull harami may fail and go lower instead
119
ES bearish unless it gets a 3min and 15min candle close over 1207
117
73% confid sell signal on ES here now,,,needs 78--85% to really move tho,,at 1205 es
106
OIL futures volume on the bounce was much less then the selling earlier today,,still see lower oil swing
102
OIL has moved up,,,will ES SPX follow (on 3min charts),,tho oil now approaching resistance
101
ES now at the time that bulls "need to do something", intraday only not swing related,,,watching next 3--17 minutes, stops set in SDS to protect profit as posted b4
1245
21.70 SDS trgt, last 2090 (trgt calc using both rectangle target and prior high test)
1231
intraday ES is running out of time for higher, for bulls,,,still watching this window,,still bearish atm imo
1219
at 12:10, ES is under the 1210 zone estab at 11:35AM,,suggests poss lower prices if it doesnt move up soon, intraday, still in the 1230--1pm move up "or else lower"zone, last 1205.25,,for swings still in the 4 hour bearish sideways chart period
1157
3min ES has a bull diverg on macd hist and rsi,scalp only long, tho i'm not taking it...remaining short for now...there is not really any volume diverg
1153
eventual SCO trgt is 48.73,,,another 10-12% higher or 23-25% net profit if hit,,not sure if it makes it up there without taking profit first and re-enter, last 43.57
1150
can always re-enter if merited, if stopped out
1149
2069 stop on SDS, to protect profit from trade entered hour or 2 ago...2095 last at 1203.50 ES
1146
ES daily volume is low atm,,,there are plenty more sellers imo,,,the supports need to hold
1143
tightening stop on half of SCO now,,looser stop on second half, at 14.1% profit at the moment
1142
covering half of shorts from ES 1215 here for 10 points profit, or 1.56% SDS
1136
imo, to do "swing" damage, bears need close under ES 1196/98 (bulls must hold over it),,,still holding all shorts for now
1135
further if ES doesnt move higher by 12:14pm, chance are reduced imo
1135
IF ES is under 1210 at 1230PM/1:11 PM, would be bearish,,struggling here to get higher
1117
my charts suggests sideways and bear lower bias for next 4 hours in SPX
1111
thus far,this is a bad reaction to the 1207 test,imo,,bearish
1108
es "should" hold on first test here of 1207/08,,,and bounce,,,if not would be bearish,,,
1106
1202.50 trgt if 1207 breaks lower
1106
1207 ES impt support,,watching to see if it holds or breaks
1105
still holding short from ES 1215,,last 1208.50
1031
shorting ES via sds,,,in SDS 20.57,,,at es 1215
1023
raising stop on SCO to 42.37 from 38.40 entry,, for 10.33% profit if stopped, curr at 11.17% profit
1017
1218 es may present a short opp if it hits there,,will see what charts look like
1012
ES just broke minor intraday support at 1214,,watching reaction,,,could see lower ES SPX now as result of minor break,,still short from ES 1243--1265 swing
1006
USO (oil) double top, swing, daily, on Nov 16 and Dec 5,,still see lower oil US0,,CL futures,,higher sco
956
/CL oil futures: some higher vol selling here,,higher than 930am
943
SCO swing (oil short) is at 12% profit atm,,,may take profits on half,,,stop on half is just over fridays high,,,stop on second half is looser, higher--chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
reversed long now, at the close, smaller position to start, SSO
exited CLX for a small profit, near breakeven
1197.50 ES, out
2114 sds stop
2112 stop SDS raised again
345
sds stop raised again ,,,2102
342
stop on CLX short at 6507,,,either it stays down here or i'm out near breakeven (4 cent loss)
331
raised stop again, 2096, to lock profits, SDS
320
1202 new resist on es into the close, then 1209/11 resist==
315
1198 impt ES support, daily support horiz,,,needs to hold here, else lower,,,holding shorts for now
314
riding SDS higher, manual trail stop, new stop now 2087\
\
308
1204 intraday pivot broken :D
257
Quick charts, why I'm in SDS and SCO (/CL is oil futures).
Double click the chart for a larger view.
247
1204 and 1209/1211 are 2 pivots to look at going into close: under 1204 suggests lower, over 1209/11 higher,,bearish bias atm imo
221
sds dipped down but did not hit 2069 stop,,,still in sds, same stops and targets
119
ES 60 min chart does have a bull harami, but it's unconmfirmed, and other chart landscapes suggest the bull harami may fail and go lower instead
119
ES bearish unless it gets a 3min and 15min candle close over 1207
117
73% confid sell signal on ES here now,,,needs 78--85% to really move tho,,at 1205 es
106
OIL futures volume on the bounce was much less then the selling earlier today,,still see lower oil swing
102
OIL has moved up,,,will ES SPX follow (on 3min charts),,tho oil now approaching resistance
101
ES now at the time that bulls "need to do something", intraday only not swing related,,,watching next 3--17 minutes, stops set in SDS to protect profit as posted b4
1245
21.70 SDS trgt, last 2090 (trgt calc using both rectangle target and prior high test)
1231
intraday ES is running out of time for higher, for bulls,,,still watching this window,,still bearish atm imo
1219
at 12:10, ES is under the 1210 zone estab at 11:35AM,,suggests poss lower prices if it doesnt move up soon, intraday, still in the 1230--1pm move up "or else lower"zone, last 1205.25,,for swings still in the 4 hour bearish sideways chart period
1157
3min ES has a bull diverg on macd hist and rsi,scalp only long, tho i'm not taking it...remaining short for now...there is not really any volume diverg
1153
eventual SCO trgt is 48.73,,,another 10-12% higher or 23-25% net profit if hit,,not sure if it makes it up there without taking profit first and re-enter, last 43.57
1150
can always re-enter if merited, if stopped out
1149
2069 stop on SDS, to protect profit from trade entered hour or 2 ago...2095 last at 1203.50 ES
1146
ES daily volume is low atm,,,there are plenty more sellers imo,,,the supports need to hold
1143
tightening stop on half of SCO now,,looser stop on second half, at 14.1% profit at the moment
1142
covering half of shorts from ES 1215 here for 10 points profit, or 1.56% SDS
1136
imo, to do "swing" damage, bears need close under ES 1196/98 (bulls must hold over it),,,still holding all shorts for now
1135
further if ES doesnt move higher by 12:14pm, chance are reduced imo
1135
IF ES is under 1210 at 1230PM/1:11 PM, would be bearish,,struggling here to get higher
1117
my charts suggests sideways and bear lower bias for next 4 hours in SPX
1111
thus far,this is a bad reaction to the 1207 test,imo,,bearish
1108
es "should" hold on first test here of 1207/08,,,and bounce,,,if not would be bearish,,,
1106
1202.50 trgt if 1207 breaks lower
1106
1207 ES impt support,,watching to see if it holds or breaks
1105
still holding short from ES 1215,,last 1208.50
1031
shorting ES via sds,,,in SDS 20.57,,,at es 1215
1023
raising stop on SCO to 42.37 from 38.40 entry,, for 10.33% profit if stopped, curr at 11.17% profit
1017
1218 es may present a short opp if it hits there,,will see what charts look like
1012
ES just broke minor intraday support at 1214,,watching reaction,,,could see lower ES SPX now as result of minor break,,still short from ES 1243--1265 swing
1006
USO (oil) double top, swing, daily, on Nov 16 and Dec 5,,still see lower oil US0,,CL futures,,higher sco
956
/CL oil futures: some higher vol selling here,,higher than 930am
943
SCO swing (oil short) is at 12% profit atm,,,may take profits on half,,,stop on half is just over fridays high,,,stop on second half is looser, higher--chris
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, December 5, 2011
Monday thoughts
In about one hour, I am Leaving for vacation for two weeks.
CLX weaker than SPX SPY as expected, holding the short longer, with stops and limit orders set. CLX up only 0.4% vs SPY up 1.38%.
USO oil up 0.9% vs SPY 1.38%, oil also weaker.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
CLX weaker than SPX SPY as expected, holding the short longer, with stops and limit orders set. CLX up only 0.4% vs SPY up 1.38%.
USO oil up 0.9% vs SPY 1.38%, oil also weaker.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Friday, December 2, 2011
Friday thoughts
345
qqq falling ahead of aapl here,,,,next week if aapl falls, qqqq could get hit--chris
325
aapl 388 will prob hold on its first test,,getting closer now,,if that were to break and close under it today, v bearish imo,,,tho prob wont do that---chris
303
bulls need to buy here else the ES is going to have a nasty daily candle--chris
302
iff aapl gets under 388,,,the qqq could see selling--chris
254
needs confirmation but just got alert that MM gently selling oil here, on that last pop higher,,,now selling into it,,,,needs confirmation---chris
246
low vol so anything can happn,,,,but ES been hanging out near its lows all afternoon, still has the bear daily shoot star--chris
244
es may want to test 1240 lower--chris
208
may not mean much,,,but ES just had a rare intraday gap lower (small),,,not often seen tho volume is low,so,,,,CHRIS
206
some selling here in oil and es,,,see if it sustains or not==chris
154
75% confid on ES sell prog alert===at es 1248.75 here
135
AAPL getting tired on 60min chart, still under the 392.50 short entry trade idea, tho still need to get under 388 for any real downside traction--390.85 last---chris
132
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz tho ES is still under the 1254 and even 1250,m,,bearish imo--chris
1150
no confirmation yet,,,but ES is now close to getting a chart setup that would suggest a 4 hour bearish bias lower--chris
1149
could easily change before 4pm but daily es now has a bear shooting star,,,CHRIS
1147
1250 es poss breaking now, bearish, after rejected at 1254
1134
testing 1254 es now==chris
failure here would be bearish
1119
heres the 1251 stall,,,,ES needs to hold this and get over 1254,,,else lower bear bias, imo--chris
1117
next 9 minutes may decide oil's fate for rest of day--watching here--chris
still see bounce later in oil after corrects
1115
Oil going for that 9980 test again,,,same # as yest--CHRIS
1112
watching 1254 ES---under that bearish, same pivot--chris
break 1250 would be bearish too--chris
1109
for aapl swing shorts, a 15min close under 388 would be good,,,now at 391.71==chris
1107
there goes 1254,,,1251 stall likely es,,,simple horiz supp---chris
1104
approaching the 1254 ES intraday pivot---held so far,,,but 3min close under it bearish-imo---CHRIS
1043
74% now==chris
1038
if es gets a 3min candle close under 1254,,,the high for day may be in (all IFs LOL)==chris
1036
oil is at a 70% confidence intraday sell program warning,,,but needs 74--78% for entry and 85% to really move,,of course it could hit that while i'm typing in this fast mkt===chris
1030
approacing the 10:33--10:40 timing area,,watching reactions here---chris
1015
intraday timiing analysis--looking at 1033--1040 timframe for poss short entries,,see what charts bring--chris
1005
392.50 aapl short could work here,,,== 393--397 higher would not invalidate the short setup--chris
1002
oil is flat vs ES up 1%==oil weaker--has been last few dayschris
954
Nov 16 was first time that trendline broke, went short then for a big fall,,this one should be less--chris
953
if you draw a trendline on SPY from oct 18--nov 16 connecting the lows, SPY did a perfect backtest of the trendline==CHRIS
951
not sure if the candel comes today or not, but a SPY close under 124.40 would give a bearish engulfing pattern and suggest lower next week==CHRIS
could also get the less bearish in neck line or spin top, maybe a bullish green candle, who knows
946
oil just broke under my pivot 9980 from yesterday,,,watching reactions here, position now green
941
oil weakness may be "foreshadowing" forecasting spx weakness, spx weakness may follow oil,,,,crazy paradoxixal market when oil and spx move in tandem together, theoretically many argue they would be inverse
941
that was fast, oil shorts now turned green :)
940
CLX up .4% vs SPY .8%, so oil and clx shorts "outperforming" the SPX shorts as we expected---CHRIS
937
well oil short entry was a bit early, but still holding it for now,,,its at about 0.3% loss now==sco---
still see lower oil, then bounce higher, swing
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
qqq falling ahead of aapl here,,,,next week if aapl falls, qqqq could get hit--chris
325
aapl 388 will prob hold on its first test,,getting closer now,,if that were to break and close under it today, v bearish imo,,,tho prob wont do that---chris
303
bulls need to buy here else the ES is going to have a nasty daily candle--chris
302
iff aapl gets under 388,,,the qqq could see selling--chris
254
needs confirmation but just got alert that MM gently selling oil here, on that last pop higher,,,now selling into it,,,,needs confirmation---chris
246
low vol so anything can happn,,,,but ES been hanging out near its lows all afternoon, still has the bear daily shoot star--chris
244
es may want to test 1240 lower--chris
208
may not mean much,,,but ES just had a rare intraday gap lower (small),,,not often seen tho volume is low,so,,,,CHRIS
206
some selling here in oil and es,,,see if it sustains or not==chris
154
75% confid on ES sell prog alert===at es 1248.75 here
135
AAPL getting tired on 60min chart, still under the 392.50 short entry trade idea, tho still need to get under 388 for any real downside traction--390.85 last---chris
132
zzzzzzzzzzzzzz tho ES is still under the 1254 and even 1250,m,,bearish imo--chris
1150
no confirmation yet,,,but ES is now close to getting a chart setup that would suggest a 4 hour bearish bias lower--chris
1149
could easily change before 4pm but daily es now has a bear shooting star,,,CHRIS
1147
1250 es poss breaking now, bearish, after rejected at 1254
1134
testing 1254 es now==chris
failure here would be bearish
1119
heres the 1251 stall,,,,ES needs to hold this and get over 1254,,,else lower bear bias, imo--chris
1117
next 9 minutes may decide oil's fate for rest of day--watching here--chris
still see bounce later in oil after corrects
1115
Oil going for that 9980 test again,,,same # as yest--CHRIS
1112
watching 1254 ES---under that bearish, same pivot--chris
break 1250 would be bearish too--chris
1109
for aapl swing shorts, a 15min close under 388 would be good,,,now at 391.71==chris
1107
there goes 1254,,,1251 stall likely es,,,simple horiz supp---chris
1104
approaching the 1254 ES intraday pivot---held so far,,,but 3min close under it bearish-imo---CHRIS
1043
74% now==chris
1038
if es gets a 3min candle close under 1254,,,the high for day may be in (all IFs LOL)==chris
1036
oil is at a 70% confidence intraday sell program warning,,,but needs 74--78% for entry and 85% to really move,,of course it could hit that while i'm typing in this fast mkt===chris
1030
approacing the 10:33--10:40 timing area,,watching reactions here---chris
1015
intraday timiing analysis--looking at 1033--1040 timframe for poss short entries,,see what charts bring--chris
1005
392.50 aapl short could work here,,,== 393--397 higher would not invalidate the short setup--chris
1002
oil is flat vs ES up 1%==oil weaker--has been last few dayschris
954
Nov 16 was first time that trendline broke, went short then for a big fall,,this one should be less--chris
953
if you draw a trendline on SPY from oct 18--nov 16 connecting the lows, SPY did a perfect backtest of the trendline==CHRIS
951
not sure if the candel comes today or not, but a SPY close under 124.40 would give a bearish engulfing pattern and suggest lower next week==CHRIS
could also get the less bearish in neck line or spin top, maybe a bullish green candle, who knows
946
oil just broke under my pivot 9980 from yesterday,,,watching reactions here, position now green
941
oil weakness may be "foreshadowing" forecasting spx weakness, spx weakness may follow oil,,,,crazy paradoxixal market when oil and spx move in tandem together, theoretically many argue they would be inverse
941
that was fast, oil shorts now turned green :)
940
CLX up .4% vs SPY .8%, so oil and clx shorts "outperforming" the SPX shorts as we expected---CHRIS
937
well oil short entry was a bit early, but still holding it for now,,,its at about 0.3% loss now==sco---
still see lower oil, then bounce higher, swing
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, December 1, 2011
Thurs thoughts
354
the doji candle daily today suggests that all the shorts margin calls were met day before, else would have been bigger green candle==chris
340
shorted CLX 6502,,next supp 6480 may bounce there,,,then 6480 should break tomorrow
334
sometime between now and 357pm,,,i'm going to short CLX clorox (from the 10am focus list)==chris
322
oil does NOT have the Market Maker sell program signal, yet--chris
322
ES sell signal intraday here, 74% confid, needs 78--85% to move fast==chris
309
SCO has a chance of outperforming SDS, imo,,but have both--chris
308
i'm in. short. from ES 1243. chris
308
approaching the ES 1243 below mkt short order--chris
307
\4 hours more needed, looks like, till tomorrow 1000am--1pmish maybe==chris
306
oil charts have changed, and are looking like they still need to go lower before higher, i may even hold the SCO (bear oil short 2x) overnightr
302
below the market, i'll finally take an initial short entry, on ES under 1243--chris,,then depending on the close,,i'll decide if want to hold overnight swing
253
looking for oil to move under 99.80 for further down b4 up, last 100.12==chris
250
still watching 1243 es==chris
234
this pattern in oil, if it works, often makes a lower low headfake, then fast move up,,intraday only,,,for uso 3805ish trgt lower, then higher---chris
233
under 1243, intraday, es could drop==chris
225
also oil futures are backtsting prior supp now resist--chris
225
cancellede the USO long limit order from before,,,will re-eval long oil after i cover the short,,,charts and MM suggest a PB in oil atm, imo--CHRIS
220
38.40 SCO==chris
217
shorting oil here 100.05,,agressive ,,,will reverse to long swing on covering lower, if able--CHRIS
216
scalpers could SHORT oil here, intraday only,,tho i'll pass on it==chris
210
oil needs to get over 100 again to move, last 9980==chris
209
oil---60 min USO has a bull harami candle pattern,,,watching for a higher low to enter USO if able, a 60min close over 3860 would confirm harami==CHRIS
206
i think oil resist will hold here one more time,,,and PB,,,market maker analysis suggests they are buying oil but not done yet,,,watching for confirmation---CHRIS
155
OIL uso has moved over 3850, but still waiting longer on this re-entry, no position yet--CHRIS
106
if limit order 37.60 in USO not filled, a move OVER 3850ish may also signal a buy,,will see what it looks like if that happens
105
i'll buy USO limit 37.60 if able, for swing,,,this is an early entry tho, so half size position, may also take an early profit if it surges,,may not get this fill, if it does not go that low it would be bullish,, later i may pay more for USO but charts say to wait 2 hours before entry, so only buying on another move lower for now
1226
i'm being cautious on the remaining long half of AAP,,,it may double top and fall daily, unsure,,,stops in place--CHRIS,,and rsi bear diverg may form--chris
1225
AAP: Why I keep buying it, taking profits and re-entering. Daily Chart. Double click to view full size. AAP has also resisted andh held up very well when SPY SPX QQQ all fell hard this month.
1153
possible SHORT swing entries in these (focus list): cf, gr, nflx, clx,epd,sfly,bby,ep,low,acat,rell, HOGS, no entries yet just ideas for possible entry short on some of them--CHRIS
1130
still looking for re-entry AAP long, AAPL short, USO long,,no entries yet, swing===CHRIS
1022
oil via uso===uso has broken over its v small 60min downtrend resist line, now will wait for pb to test the support, and likely re-enter oil long via USO or UCO 2x, swing,,the small 60min downtrend is within a larger 60min uptrend ==CHRIS
1006
still holding the second half of HAL at 15% profit, took off half yesterday at 14% profit as posted==CHRIS
1005
aapl may want 390--392 area higher first, is why waiting here--chris
1004
AAPL is at the 386.00 short area posted yesterday, but not taking the short yet. Waiting awhile to see what it does here.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
the doji candle daily today suggests that all the shorts margin calls were met day before, else would have been bigger green candle==chris
340
shorted CLX 6502,,next supp 6480 may bounce there,,,then 6480 should break tomorrow
334
sometime between now and 357pm,,,i'm going to short CLX clorox (from the 10am focus list)==chris
322
oil does NOT have the Market Maker sell program signal, yet--chris
322
ES sell signal intraday here, 74% confid, needs 78--85% to move fast==chris
309
SCO has a chance of outperforming SDS, imo,,but have both--chris
308
i'm in. short. from ES 1243. chris
308
approaching the ES 1243 below mkt short order--chris
307
\4 hours more needed, looks like, till tomorrow 1000am--1pmish maybe==chris
306
oil charts have changed, and are looking like they still need to go lower before higher, i may even hold the SCO (bear oil short 2x) overnightr
302
below the market, i'll finally take an initial short entry, on ES under 1243--chris,,then depending on the close,,i'll decide if want to hold overnight swing
253
looking for oil to move under 99.80 for further down b4 up, last 100.12==chris
250
still watching 1243 es==chris
234
this pattern in oil, if it works, often makes a lower low headfake, then fast move up,,intraday only,,,for uso 3805ish trgt lower, then higher---chris
233
under 1243, intraday, es could drop==chris
225
also oil futures are backtsting prior supp now resist--chris
225
cancellede the USO long limit order from before,,,will re-eval long oil after i cover the short,,,charts and MM suggest a PB in oil atm, imo--CHRIS
220
38.40 SCO==chris
217
shorting oil here 100.05,,agressive ,,,will reverse to long swing on covering lower, if able--CHRIS
216
scalpers could SHORT oil here, intraday only,,tho i'll pass on it==chris
210
oil needs to get over 100 again to move, last 9980==chris
209
oil---60 min USO has a bull harami candle pattern,,,watching for a higher low to enter USO if able, a 60min close over 3860 would confirm harami==CHRIS
206
i think oil resist will hold here one more time,,,and PB,,,market maker analysis suggests they are buying oil but not done yet,,,watching for confirmation---CHRIS
155
OIL uso has moved over 3850, but still waiting longer on this re-entry, no position yet--CHRIS
106
if limit order 37.60 in USO not filled, a move OVER 3850ish may also signal a buy,,will see what it looks like if that happens
105
i'll buy USO limit 37.60 if able, for swing,,,this is an early entry tho, so half size position, may also take an early profit if it surges,,may not get this fill, if it does not go that low it would be bullish,, later i may pay more for USO but charts say to wait 2 hours before entry, so only buying on another move lower for now
1226
i'm being cautious on the remaining long half of AAP,,,it may double top and fall daily, unsure,,,stops in place--CHRIS,,and rsi bear diverg may form--chris
1225
AAP: Why I keep buying it, taking profits and re-entering. Daily Chart. Double click to view full size. AAP has also resisted andh held up very well when SPY SPX QQQ all fell hard this month.
1153
possible SHORT swing entries in these (focus list): cf, gr, nflx, clx,epd,sfly,bby,ep,low,acat,rell, HOGS, no entries yet just ideas for possible entry short on some of them--CHRIS
1130
still looking for re-entry AAP long, AAPL short, USO long,,no entries yet, swing===CHRIS
1022
oil via uso===uso has broken over its v small 60min downtrend resist line, now will wait for pb to test the support, and likely re-enter oil long via USO or UCO 2x, swing,,the small 60min downtrend is within a larger 60min uptrend ==CHRIS
1006
still holding the second half of HAL at 15% profit, took off half yesterday at 14% profit as posted==CHRIS
1005
aapl may want 390--392 area higher first, is why waiting here--chris
1004
AAPL is at the 386.00 short area posted yesterday, but not taking the short yet. Waiting awhile to see what it does here.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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