Friday, June 28, 2013

Friday


337
watching to see if ES can break over 1610 in coming minutes or not

253
upro should test 6420,scalp perspect trgt 1, with other trgts higher


251
upro near 64.80 would be about an 8-10 point pop on ES

238
scalping only UPRO here, 63.60, not going for big move just some spending money
likely sell by 4pm today the upro

216
IDEA:
UNG
1840 and 1950 are Inv Bank Buy sell levels on UNG...i'm looking for a position at those levels. maybe i'll buy 1840 and short it if 1950

150
NUGT up nicely whopping 23% today, that stuff is uber volatile


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, June 27, 2013

Thurs thoughts


401
out of vxx uvxy. will look re=enter later if it bounces
i am NOT out of the UPRO tho, 4pm sys did not signal "take profits" or exit, tho it was very close.

349
2106 vxx stop in place into close, will exit vxx uvxy shorts today whether or not stop is hit, stop in place in case of sudden move, 2084 last

321
still planing to exit rest of uvxy vxx short today even if they dont hit target, still see lower but actively trading and want to lock the 16-23% gain, and look to re-enter short higher again

4pm system is close to saying "take gains on UPRO and SPY longs", and also is close to giving a short SPX signal, so being cautious on the VXX here. I do NOT PLAN to short SPX today unless it really surged high (not expected)

and 4pm sys may still give an "exit to take profit on longs sox"....its very close to ringing....100% wins on 4pm system longs for 2013, and 70-80% wins since yr 2000


313
1607 es, rang, and uvxy at 73.11 to short scalp

311
not trading it, but 72% scalp long signal ES SPY UPRO close to ringing here...not yet but close at 1608 es

250
MM now wiling to pay 4.80 for nugt, up from 4.60 buy

249
nugt hit 498 near 499 trgt per prior post, next 511 trgt, its up 8% today the stuff is volatile

235
watching 1611 es trigger...getting close to testing it now...1610 last

230
if ES hits 1611, then good chance it makes higher intraday high, last 1609

225
took half of UVXY shorts off, locked 16% gain on half, holding half

159
*** Inv Banks have now dropped their bids on VXX from 20.60 to 20.22...so likely will see the 2060 trgt...it still might stall there and bounce but should see it. 060/2030 and 2022  on vxx likely, tho often the targets are hit the next day as we've discussed often

Thus, i'll be patient and hold the VXX UVXY shorts a bit longer (tho took some off here to lock some profits, holding rest, and if it surges high enough may re-short)

142
look where nugt bounced...exact at 4.60 Inv Bank level...watching if hold or down to 440/432.
almost always it will stall at Inv Bank levels, but it could go sideways then down to next level, or bounce...watching

135
Some Inv Bank have dropped bids on VXX down to 1960, last 2090...so may exit VXX on trgt 1 and then try to re-short if it bounces....

134
marginal new low on vxx....approaching 2060/2030

127
VXX testing daily lows and they look breakable lower here, still holding the vxx and uvxy for prev posted trgt

1158
VXX the Inv Bank have not raised their bid or highered their ask, so have same targets until they change their levels

1157
483 Inv Bank sell level on NUGT...prob stall there,,,pb may give buy opp on it....a sustained move over the 487 would suggest poss trip to 503 Ihigher nv Bank level instead of lower

1155
still holding uvxy vxx shorts...vxx now back near daily lows after lil pop
same targets, tho may exit today and take profit

1107
notice  vxx made new lows on 3min intaday chart, but SPY not made new highs...the vxx often leads so we may see a higher high on todays daily

1105
440 and 460 nugt levels buy

1101
ideal world, vxx uvxy would make their targets today, would take gains there and use that $ to buy nugt and ideally  nugt does not go too high today

1059
not saying its time to short, but bulls are in a bit of trouble here with spx below the 50 MA for 5 days now...tho its approaching the 50ma and may close over it soon...may see some sideways but likely are going to see lower again later,,,

1052
Inv Bank secondary buy level on VXX is curiously placed at 1980...below horiz supp near 20 but above prior low 19.22 area... but they often put their levels in no mans land like this....it does suggest the 2030/2060 (primary buy level) trgt will be hit though.

1049
IF gdx closes at 2070 or higher today, and then if it closes tomorrow above today's high, then it will give a MACD hist buy signal on the daily chart, with a 2--30 day hold time (lots of ifs, just something to watch)

1039
gold silver metal are low enough, for smart money to pull money from treasury and buy metals, from multiweek months view


1032
in case of sudden fast move, for now, have orders set to cover vxx shorts under target at vxx 2030 (under 2065) and corresponding areas on  uvxy, and on the upro long. (am long upro, short uvxy vxx)

1030
2065/2189 vxx inv bank buy sell levels, targeting the 2065 area for poss place to take swing profits in vxx uvxy upro etc

1025
fwiw Inv Bank 462 and 490 are the "active" buy/sell levels for NUGT

1021
GDX bull volume diverg on June 20 and June 26 (lower vol on june 26), notice that NUGT has higher vol on june 26 but cant use the 3x for that kind of analysis because nugt is leveraged

1013
interesing thing about GDX vs phsyical metal gold GLD:  imo the decline in gold prices is "priced in already" to the miners, the miners should give a higher percent move up than the gold or silver, tho of course makes sense to diversify and have both

1012
and i think GDX is going to at least 36 or over a 50% rise on gdx, so nugt should follow


1000
posted friday that 4pm system signaled long spx upro or short uvxy vxx or long xiv. system may give an exit signal today or tomorrow to take profits



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, June 21, 2013

Friday thoughts


403
good weekend all. since uvxy short didnt hit lower trgt, kept half of UVXY short, and took 8% same day trade gain on other half

345
Investment Banks dropped ask (bearish for vxx) on VXX to 2214 from 2250 so holding the uvxy vxx shorts a bit here

apparently Inv Banks willing to sell or short vxx at 2214 area instead of 2250, even if a trip back up to 2250 comes

331
short UVXY approaching the 12% trgt, not there yet...getting closer now, may hit it today. either way i'll take 8-12% gains today on half or all the shares... still have the long term NUGT and other positions for alt start hold longer time

327
Investment Bank Buy/Sell levels for today and tomorrow for SPY are 155 and 164...with bias toward approaching 164 up bias tho may not make 164 in 2 days

312
UVXY shorts now at 8% gain from posted entry this morn. will take half or all of it off today.
still waiting on prev posted targets for uvxy near 12% but stops in place to protect sudden move

114
21.17 vxx and 76.30 uvxy i'll take profits on shorts if gets there, from 8580 uvxy entry for a quick 12% profit


1259
1586 next ES resist, with momentum up if over 1590

1258
ES broke the 1579 trgt from b4 and quick pop to 1584 last

1215
if ES can get 1579 then it should pop higher again, all scalps,,,,not at the beach today so doing a lil trading intraday lol

1212
8580 uvxy short here

1207
1576 ES broke higher. intraday bullish for bounce as result. scalp view.

1046
UPRO quick trade setup long spx on 5 min charts, scalp, at 1581 ES, upro 6060
or vxx short 22.43, or short uvxy or long xiv

1022
NUGT buy levels 6.18 and 5.87 Investment Bank. Sell Levels 6.55 and 6.72 and 8.01. Mid term multi weeks months I think its going to 12....and then higher...sounds like a big move but we've seen this happen many times before

1018
mid term,,,,still see lower spx, maybe 1400, but thats entirely diff strategy that holds for weeks months

1013
**** 4 PM swing system, says that spx likely to go over 1628 spx, though it might go lower first. 4pm system longside is 100% wins in 2013, and 70-80% wins since year 2000.

I don't have shorts, but if i did, i would trail the stop and exit when spx starts going up. If shorts are in profit zone, use trail stop to take profits. And if underwater, take the loss and go long.

"Feels risky" going long, but i trust the 100% win rate this year, and 70-80% win rate since year 2000. I use UPRO for longs.

939
but buys sell levels for UVXY at 66 and 91...will take a position long or short in uvxy if it hits either today or tomorrow, and re-enter uvxy...after locking gains test of 27% profit

934
UVXY dropped today, expected per yest posting ,, down 7%, SPX has bounced


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, June 20, 2013

Thurs thoughts


400
still see GDX going to 34 from 24 here, about 40% move, which should allow the NUGT to move well despite some decay in it

357
selling at or near Investment Bank levels on UVXY usually works well, as we did today

357
also stops impt...uvxy dropped from 88 to 83 in minutes

355
if one looks at daily VIX chart, u can see that gap down vix or pullbacks often happen on these huge vix moves, why exited and too 27% gain

351
out at 87.40 uvxy for 27% gain, bought 3 days ago

349
stop 87.40

344
stop 8680, last 8840

342
has approached 87 trgt, waiting for 89 instead, with stop still in place

339
then 89 trgt next sell level

338
87 trgt on uvxy. will sell there if able. Market Maker sell level at 87, intraday

335
i put stop on uvxy at 84.00, last 85.15, bought at 69.00....will close out part of it today. often a pullback in vix after big move like this

223
EVERYTHING is down today LOL...bonds TLT GOLD SILVE SPX....everything except VIX UVXY

221
holding UVXY from 69 buy posted b4 about 2 days ago, is at 80...but not selling any here

and still see great opps in GDX NUGT for multi month holds,,still see as rare buying opp just need to be patient and wait.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, June 19, 2013

Wedn thoughts


304
Getting some reactions here one day after 4pm system issued short sell alert (yest)


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, June 18, 2013

Tues thoughts


356
sold ung 3% gain.
bought UVXY 69.00

4pm system method: signal to enter new shorts, spx, and take gains on long is ringing here at 3:55 PM.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, June 10, 2013

Monday thoughts

359
raising sell order on UNG to 21

352
still shortable at this price imo, if missed the 4pm system posting on friday 4pm

352
4pm sys says the bias is toward the lower buy level, not the higher sell levels

351
SPY buy/sell levels on Inv Bank: they are at 165 and 170 right now as we move into close...so in coming days those would prob cause a reaction

they are not interested here "in the middle"

328
ES SPX SPY looks headed lowere into the close today
1642 last ES

326
look at the uber light volume in SPY today....here comes summer

325
15min RSI on UNG is painting a kind of bull inv HS pattern,,,see it?

323
 ung far from its 5MA daily...snap back 1-3% ung, or 2-6% ugaz trgts


313
going to try a scalp on UNG...instead of UGAZ,,,,higher vol better fils on ung
20.28 UNG long

1154
NUGT and DUST have been even more volatile than UVXY vix, larger moves in the nugt dust gold miners long short

1152
no rush on the UVXY imo...of course it moves up fast...but usually there are at least a few small daily candles on it before big surge up...if i miss sudden move up without a fill 5877 then will look for other opps....still have the SPXU posted Friday, and lots of NUGT

1149
NUGT swing doing well.

have an order to buy UVXY 58.77 if it gets there,  60.75 last price

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, June 7, 2013

Friday thoughts


359
took upro profit, xiv profit, and reversed to spxu

354
spy may want 168 higher before lower. 168 is Investment Bank Sell Level, but i'll take the 4pm trigger if over 164.60, may be early

349
here it is....164.60 spy ....needs to close over that and will exit UPRO and reverse short, in 4pm system

347
4pm system is VERY close to saying "exit long and immed reverse short'....but it has not rang...will wait unless it rings...1-2 points more may do it

311
4pm system is often early, and it is not yet signalling "take profits on long" or "reverse to short"....waiting at least for it to say exit long, b4 the uvxy....tho the system is close to giving signal as posted earlier today...watching


309
may want UVXY again, BUT not yet...i'd like to see SPX closer to todays highs, or higher,,,,UVXy can get small daily candles after these big ones and drip drip drip lower, so being picky n patient...b

1134
not adding nugt here since already bought more, but may add 1047 at next buy level

1133
NUGT is approaching its buy trgt posted b4 of 1070, last 1075,,,"close enough" to consider it being hit

1132
if spx pulls back a lot today, then 4pm sys will likely say "hold longs and dont exit yet and wait for re-test"_...... the system is 100% algo based without any human interpretation, so just postulating here based on prior experience

1128
IF the spx closes near here 1642, it looks like the 4pm trading system (82% win success rate since year 2000) is going to signal a "take profits in UPRO long and immediately reverse short SPX". Note that the 4pm system does NOT always say to short at same time as exiting the long position, this happens sometimes not always. will know more at 3:55PM

1059
nugt may be waking up here intraday scalp,,,sudden lil move here...watching for followthru. 1135 and 1180 trgt...have order in at 1180 for now in case of sudden surges

1053
4pm sys should give a "take profit on upro spx longs" in next 1-3 days fwiw....wont necesarrily give short signal right awa but may start to move sideways and stop bleeding a lil on shorts

1050
NUGT migth see 1070 lower, b4 higher, and poss add more there. 1070 is an Inv Bank buy area
1135 mini trgt 1 on nugt, last 1100

1049
enough shares to scalp some today/tomorrow, and hold rest for higher swing nugt

1048
bought nugt back 1101.

still have half position of nugt from lower price, averaged up not down, bought back shares sold at 1147 (posted lim order week ago,filled yest)

1030
posted few days ago that SPY had 82% chance of going over 163.50 (per 4pm swing system)... has exceeded it today at 164.28 last. still has not signaled an exit, and in UPRO from 126.40, last 133.63 upro


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, June 6, 2013

Thurs thoughts


319
UVXY move to 740 was 27% gain  from 580. move to 840 t2 would be 44%. swing.

311
UVXY hit its 7.49 trgt today,posted several times past few days weeks...order filled, nice gains, still have a piece of UVXY left, and the UPRO from yest...still expect same as yest, that SPX would trade both above and below yest closing price, for opps on both long and short side, just depending on timeframe, tho still not quite sure which comes first


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

wedn thoughts


405
unique "in the middle" type price where both longs and shorts could work. imo price will go both above and below todays levels, just dont know which will come first,but both should come regardless of who comes first LOL.

403
UPRO here could work at 126.30, for a target of 131.50 and 135.00 approx.
I've bought some, half size upro in one account...the longer term account i'm keeping the UVXY 2/3 position...

400
IMO...the spx is susceptible to bounce and chance to reload shorts, 4pm sys on a buy long spx...more downside coming imo after bounce, so all depends on one's trading timeframe in choosing long or short, they could both work at this level

348
SPY is very close to its daily 50 moving avg now, basically testing it....overshoots under it are common, but so is stalling above it then bouncing...could do either in coming days

11:17 AM


: same trgts on uvxy nugt. uvxy may hit its trgt 1 today. or close to it.


UVXY move to 740 would be 27% up from 580. move to 840 t2 would be 44%. swing.

 nugt has a chance of doubling, or more. mid term holds. sounds like a lot but this is unusual chance in the miners. and other stocks in port have done similar



Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, June 3, 2013

Monday thoughts


1224
15min SPY may try to bounce, but still see down bias on the 60m charts from timing perspective

1223
4-12 more hours down sideways bias on SPY for swings, UVXY may hit its swing targets in that time ...so holding now

1149
NUGT action today may be signif, as it finally broke higher and made a higher high today going back 16 days

1139
709 stall expected uvxy, last 695

1139
based on Inv Bank levels, i've lowered my sell order a bit on uvxy to 740 from 749, for today, to sell 1/3 there and take gains

1135
so, another opp imo for underwater shorts to get an exit...not necessarily right here, as lower expected....but watch for starts of sign back up and get out opp... similar to last opp posted awhile back to "get out and re-enter"

1133
swings,,,theres 82% chance that spx will go up and get a daily close over 1630,,,,but expecting  more downside first

based on results dating back to year 2000

1131
posted last week: expect pennant to convert to bull flag by resolving down...still could be bullish lil later but meanwhile enjoying the uvxy higher and spx lower

and thats waht we are seeing here

1128
swings NUGT up 10% today, UVXY up 8%...still same swing targets and acting as expected
UVXY may get its 724-749 trgt soon...last 689
then 840, then 3rd trgt not set yet



Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".