Wednesday, July 31, 2013

Wedn thoughts


223
look at TLT  TMF

1018
order in to sell 33% of UVXY VXX at 16.98 vxx trgt...willing to wait, and still see much higher later, 10-30%, swings

1016
may be quiet in the market today until 2pm FOMC announcement

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Monday, July 29, 2013

Mon thoughts


256
MM waiting at 799 so needs to clear that...may stall there unlesss they move out of the way

253
72% rang long nugt here 786.  should go for scalp trgts now
799 and 839

216
narrow range candle in nugt today, of last 7 days. may see a 10-20 move in nugt in next 1-4 days, will it be up or down lol?

132
15min bear flag in SPY, intraday

1156
newly acquired SPXU on friday has turned green from entry...still holding

1148
back to ES...those daily hanging men candles, japanese theory says a close under the lows 1669ish would be confirmation of reversal to bearish ,,,

1142
im going to wait on 773 add on nugt ...
will see what it does here
 still plan to add something if pb within that hour tho

1130
watching if nugt can get over 875 in next 2-12 hours...time analysis for up sideways up bias on it, or if it fails

1128
773 NUGT i'll add if it wants to go there in next hour, before 814 or 839...if not will run with curr quick trade and seperate swing position

1123
814 trgt now after stall at 799...nugt...stil waiting on 839 tho
MM have raised the sell level, so should get the 799 prior level trgt now, sttall there for 814, then stall then 839

1117
and if ES hits 1665, might see a big move on uvxy vxx....may need to wait a bit for fear to come in,

1116
VXX still underpriced...may see a quick pop higher in it at some point...

1107
right now, this is daytraders retail selling 785, not MM, on this test...will watch if MM join in or wait for 799

1105
unless they change their minds, MM have finished selling the 785 nugt area and now waiting for 799 area

so we may see the 785 resist on the 15min chart break higher on its next try

1102
alert rang. nugt should test 799

1051
daily spx looks like it needs to make a lower low under 1676, may 1653

1003
VXX is about 1% undervalued atm....not much for a volatile prod like it, but it should re-align soon
doesnt mean anything for swings on vxx...just observation for quick trades

957
839 quick trade trgt 1 on nugt if it hits there for about 7% gain quick trade...swing targets higher

954
ABOVE the mkt 1332 gold futures: will buy some
1330 last gold, needs to move over 1332 then will buy at the mkt

953
as long as gold futures stay over 1320...bullish on gold imo

951
but imo if we see that, break first try to 820, then the 860 will prob also break (not necess today, would still stall there, but would mean Inv Banks willing to pay that premium at 799

just a bunch of "what ifs", but part of my notes in the trading plan, so we can monitor as things go along....

949
MM sell level 799 nugt...so likely stall there on first try unless they raise it...watching for signs of MM and Inv Bank accum on nugt,or not...

if 799 NUGT breaks higher on first try, with a quick move toward 820, it prob means the larger INV Banks jumped over the smaller MM...not expecting that, expecting stall, but that would be interpret if it breaks instead

946
753 MM buy level 1 on nugt

938
Inv Banks on sidelines here on nugt with their buy / sell levels at 665/920
but note that 665 buy is close to curr price than the 920 sell level....a bullish Inv Bank stance

938
also gold futures are susceptible to at least take a stab at testing its overnight high near 1338.50, gold now trading at 1329

936
NUGT rigt at resist, want to be in it for quick trade, on expected break of resist...if it breaks will pop up fast nicely

if resist holds and nugt falls, will add...but willing to buy here because it has spent enought time consolod on the 60 min charts last few days imo

934
bought some nugt here, quick trade near the open...willing to hold it if it drops and will buy more, not all in on the quick trade, in at 785 to start nugt

929
order in to sell half of VXX and uvxy at vxx 16.99 and hold second half for higher. thats about 10% above the current price, to lock partial gains if its hit

917
SPXU quick trade from Friday is near entry price, after moving a bit lower after buying it on Friday. this is one reason why i dont like "pure" daytrades where one is forced to exit that day if the stock just gets stuck and does not really move...


915
665 is an old Inv Bank buy level from last week, and it's below the 681 prior daily low from thurs, and just so happens to be near gap fill area...all derived from GDX analysis not nugt directly

913
for now, also have order to add to NUGT at 6.65 if it happens to want to go down there, trading at 785 area right now pre-market

may pay a higher price for the "open" nugt trade.....multiple styles strategies in effect atm

909
the open is very volatile on NUGT and can present quick scalp opps...may be a quick trade if i do it....still holding the 50% size nugt swing long which ignores all this "noise"....multiweek hold

905
if GOLD shows strength during the open, may jump on some NUGT and USLV longs at the open...futures trickled higher and now have a red bar, but if it holds i'll try an early entry


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Friday, July 26, 2013

Friday thoughts


400
lets see if es does anything in next 15min 400-415

358
its also signif that the buy level is 163 not 166, see the June 18 and june 19 candles for what i mean

354
their levels on SPY
sell SPY 170, buy 163, last spy 169

352
interesting fwiw: Inv Bank sell levels are closer to price than their buy levels, for SPY spx. its a bearish stance for swings

334
or might just take a small 0.31% loss on this spxu and not worry about it

332
looks like might need to wait until monday or tues to sell this newly acquired SPXU

307
a daily close under the prior hangmen candle lows would "confirm" the pattern and be the signal to enter short ES, using that candlestick method

306
im not a perma bear, i'm long more often than short, just pointing out the pattern...idk whether it materializes or not

303
those 2 hanging men on ES daily chart= bulls need to be careful because those are bearish for spx swings.. the candles are at the top not the bottom: japanese interpret this to mean buyers are willing to buy the small dip, but unwilling to pay more. what happens when those dip buyers are finished? down, and the last minute buyers are now trapped in their longs

233
UVXY and VXX are really something to trade swing...when short UVXY i had to wait a long time for exit cuz of all small candles, and when long also have to wait awhile to exit because of all small candles lol...just the nature of the VIX vs equities and commod

232
see that red candle on 15min SPY,from 13:30 or 1:30 pm,  then green ones? aka sell the second high...premise of the trade

228
i'm waiting on more nugt swing, running with 50% size, 60min still doesnt look ready for more shares

227
DUST did hit its target today that i was trying for yest, but i was unwilling to hold the dust overnight so had to settle for less.

224
long spxu uvxy. scalps quick trades, diff from mid term swings. just bought.
uvxy 404
spxu 21.03

these may be small gains...like the DUST daytrade yest that moved only a little


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".



Thursday, July 25, 2013

thurs thoughts


321
imo, spy has NOT consolodated long enough near the lows of 60min chart and its susceptible to a trip back down there, and lower, for swings

313
thats why personally i prefer to scalp only when willing to hold overnight, less risk imo,

312
glad i exited DUST....thats the problem with daytrades, u can get stuck

300
15min chart looks higher on dust, still some lower in nugt, but overall imo higher NUGT for swings

259
exited DUST scalp early...out
small gain. could go much higher dust, i just do NOT want to hold this dust overnight, so i'm out ...small profit better than a loss

256
es selling here....MM selling it 1682

229
prev order filled posted above, more vxx: ES hit the 1681
watching to see if follows thru on the 1681

228
still have 737 nugt trgt lower...last754

143
72% long rang on VXX here at 1570
intraday signal not swing signal

140
if ES hits 1681, an order set to add to vxx at the mkt price could work

130
look at DX us dollar futures

119
theres rel hi vol on the 3min...so giving chance for brk

117
dust at trgt 1 now...waiting to see if can break for trgt 2...scalps only...if it stalls here then i'll exit it

116
737 nugt...they dropped the bids...dust should benefit

115
Market Makers are waiting at nugt 752 to buy...will be watching if dust stalls near 7530 if it gets there

114
watching dust to see if wants 7530 next, and whether that holds or it want higher...last 7340 at resist 1

113
DUST is at impt intraday resist test here...watching the scalp

105
btw once again imo, VXX is mispriced here. it should be at 16.00 not 15.60. may drop to 15.30 but then should recover back to the "right" price at 16...and higher than 16 if ES moves under 1582...just like other day happened

1125
adding dust,nugt gdx short...SCALP ONLY trading noise, still see higher gdx nugt...71.02 dust

1033
order in to sell dust 77.40 if able, for a quick 7% gain if it fills

1032
lol the stuff moves,,,up 2% since typed LOL

1031
MM have dropped the ask and bids in GDX, hence the short, plus yest big red candle....higher later but trading the lower first atm

1029
SCALP only DUST here, short nugt, fast trade,
i still have nugt for swing position, just trading the noise here, seperate acct, seperate trade, similar to what we did last week, short nugt via dust then went long nugt

1022
note that ES is now back at yesterdays popular intraday resist and "turn" number of 1682 R

1021
have a lim order in to selll half of vxx uvxy at 18.20 vxx...would put uvxy around 53.76 or 14% higher than here,, may sell the half sooner but the order's in to catch any big candle if it comes

last vxx 15.95 uvxy 42.05

1017
waiting for the big green candle on vxx uvxy...nature of vxx is small red candles and big green ones suddenly

1016
the 15min chart on spy and vxx uvxy may need some time to whip around before the larger move down on spx

1013
as posted yest, i'm glad that yest didnt see a bigger red candle on spx es spy,,,because that would have thrown the 4pm system into a "exit short and reverse long"....now, the pullback should be deeper before the 4pm system signals that, making for greater profits on both the short and long side trades

1011
MM intraday not swing levels are buy/sell 760/802 NUGT

1008
because yest red candle was pretty big not small, daily candle, nugt will prob pull back and give yet another opp to add long, tho its going balistic higher atm

VXX and UVXY swings are valid buys at this price imo, or even for quick trades 1-16 hours, vxx 15.90 atm

i'm holding both the mid term and quick trades on VXX UVXY still, added yesterday and havent sold yesterdays vxx uvxy yet

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Wednesday, July 24, 2013

Wedn thoughts


359
ES may drop 5 points afterhours, by 415 or 500 pm...will watch

318
limit order: buy 25% size position in nugt, 6.67, if filled
good today only

317
660 today would be nice,nugt, i'd consider buy there

315
and 1677 looks breakable today lower es

313
smaller Market Makers are selling tza here at 2570 but bigger boys waiting higher

312
TZA 26.20 sell level 1 fwiw
last 2570

308
*** 16.53 new daily Inv Bank sell level....good chance now that VXX hits the 16.23 prior Inv Bank level...those levels often stick so may stall there, but this time of day may go str8 up to 1653...waching

306
notice how UVXY "caught up" in price like we talked about hour or so ago? was underpriced then....notice uvxy made new daily high, but SPY didnt make new low,,,yet....cuz uvxy vxx caught up in price

304
sold half scalp 16.06 vxx,,,holding half,,,and have full size swing vxx uvxy
respecting test of the high,resist, so took off half....all noise for the swing tho

303
VXX testing its daily high now...tryingt to break it higher...
this time of day, can see a nice move, final hour....

302
stil no Inv Bank change on sell level. at vxx 16.23

253
es trying again to get over 1682...hasnt yet...will it succeed this time? still impt # into the close

245
above 730 today....watching for that, and i'm wiling to pay mor for it if it can get there...impt #

244
i'd feel more comfortable if nugt had some small sideways 60min candles

243
6.51 nugt Inv Buy level 3,,,under 677 and 696 buy levels

233
1682 es number proved accur..thus far...
holding
directional #

226
but no fear...its bearish for SPX when SPX is this high
because no fear means: no insurance, underinsured motorist, no homeowners fire insurance
but just like ppl that drive with no insurance, they can often drive a long time before disaster hits LOL

225
fear has not manifested yet intraday...uvxy "should be" higher than this with the move in SPX lower today...idk if uvxy will catch up or not, but its underpriced intraday atm imo

224
intraday...1682 R holding so far....wondering if this uvxy vxx scalp will be a dud or move nicely....will see, giving it time since trade still valid...sometimes we do get wet firecrackers though

215
v impt test right here. ES just hit the prev posted 1682 resist trgt and its stalled there...watching to see if it holds it down or pierces aboe. the reaction here maywell dictate the next 2 hours direction into the close...

206
in fact, it sounds backwards, but if SPX ES bounces today and does not sell hard, it will prob go lower in coming days than it would if it sold hard today

that is, from 4pm signal perspective, i "hope" it does not say exit today, cuz exit later will likely be profitable...but will trust the sys and take losses if needed

the personal trades will ALWAYS outperform the 4pm sys, but 4pm is so easy to use, and works good enough, for me

203
imo, spx spy needs at least another 4 hours basing before long opp swing.
btw, 4pm system is CLOSE to signaling a "take a loss on the short positino and reverse to long swing", but it has NOT YET triggered,,,and the biggest moves often come right when the 4pm sys is "close" to its exit signal


202
under 1682, ES bearish imo, intraday...needs to test and get over that, else lower lows

200
this time, notice that Inv Bank level to sell VXX is at an obvious level. 16.23 level is right at high 2 days ago. this is unusual and they usually put their levels in "weird" areas that cannot be seen on chart

VXX has ability to blow right past the 1623 if the Inv Banks would raise that level....tho may not see today...no fear at least not yet in VIX

142
728 nugt now near the 730. next 711...but lets see if it gets over 730 before 4pm today...if so, bullish imo nugt

136
VXX has broken over yest high as expected, and has not surged but broken, and no surge unless the Inv Banks raise that sell level...still watching,,,they may raise

117
VXX now testing yest high and it looks breakable higher today
i continue to hold the quick trade vxx uvxy from this morn, and the multidays weeks seperate position uvxy vxx, same trgts for now

114
Inv Bank still have sell level at 1623 vxx,have not raised yet, so atm limited up on vxx n down spx, but that could change fast...still watching

110
 see that high vol 5min candle on SPY? 2 candles ago...shooting star bearish

109
VXX UVXY long 74% just rang intraday signal...may pop today...72% rang lower at 1574, last vxx 1592

107
could drop to 670 if 730 doesnt hold

106
nice pb in nugt, stil see lot higher later for swings, 730 a buy spot for nugt imo, layer in not all at once there

1217
SPX now at trgt from 10:22 am...1678 next trgt and poss area to take profits,instead of here

1211
if 1682 es breaks, watch out below on es, intraday...1683 last...

1209
SPY   ES on the 15min chart are acting as expected, per discussion at 10am-ish....

1144
1680 and 1705 curr Inv Bank levels to sell VXX...the 1680 is the BIG BOYS but i think they will raise it,,,

1137
 Inv Banks will pay a premium on 7.60 nugt atm thats their buy level
they just bought NUGT near that #
but i'll wait on nugt to buy...still have a half size position in it after selling half yest, so no rush


1116
for now, have order to take profits on vxx uvxy quick trade piece if it hits vxx 1708, or about 7% gain vxx and 14% gain uvxy if hit

1110
watching the mini quick trade trgts on vxx uvxy, but also watching for poss 5-10% move too, so giving room and wont auto sell at mini trgts...

1105
ES SPX SPY should all re-test todays low and prob make a daily low, if this pattern on 15min chart does what it often does

intraday trend on spx is down not up, trading the trend

1032
modest 1600 and 1623 approx vxx trgts, may go for higher but wil actively trade and watch this

1031
quick trading scalp here now uvxy and VXX 1590...diff trade than swing uvxy....

1027
vxx 16.23 mini trgt on vxx and uvxy, will see if Inv Bank raise their sell levels, may take some 20-50% of uvxy off if vxx gets there, last 15.91

1022
the supp level on SPX has finally broken (quick trade supp level 1691), imo spx has a down bias next 4 hours at least, usually 4-12 hours (cash hours not futures hours), and i'll be shorting any and all rallies for next 4 hrs for quick trades, hold time hours --few days for modest trgts 1685, 1678 spx, a daily close some day under 1680 suggests a trip back to 1650 (approx # obviously)

right now the break of 1691 looks small and un-impressive, but its the level i've been watching a few days, and when it "acts as expected", time to jump on

957
and now SPY ready to test the 169.00 level, es 1686, same levels we been looking at for few days

955
not surprised to see a sell off on SPY SPX in the first 30min...gap analysis was WrONG and said we would gap down, but when its wrong it usually tries to fill the gap like this and [resent opp to fade the gap....

939
700 and 930 approx Inv Bank levels near term for NUGT fwiw, mid term numbers are higher

939
still believe that 1686 ES or 1691 spx level is going to break lower ....swings

937
GM all...hmm well we did not get gap down today, watching now to see what spy spx es want to do...imo still will be pb in spx and pop higher in uvxy, swings


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".



Tuesday, July 23, 2013

Tues thoughts


403
VIX up 3% today, UVXY down 0.85% today,,,,shows they do not directly correlate like SPX:UPRO or even like SPX:SPY

but imo, the futures on VIX should go higher, and thta will send VXX and UVXY higher

357
more intense selling on SPY likely if rsi 60min gets under 45, its at 53 now

356
Gap analysis suggests that SPY will gap down tomorrow

354
i still believe spx will break 1690 and UVXY will shoot up 10-40%

353
added more UVXY...tripled position size, swing

349
ADDED to UVXY here today...look at ES and SPY charts, 60 min !!!

345
took gains on half of NUGT multiweek swing position at 8.52, will try to buy back later, keeping half for higher later

huge move on nugt, 68% move higher

still see the double or triple targets, later,


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Monday, July 22, 2013

Monday thoughts


339
some selling here now on ES as we near the close. watching if it sustains, for lower ES and higher VXX UVXY. big red candle 3min ES

145
for scalp vxx uvxy i have an order set to sell at 16.57 if it gets there. swing targets are higher.

139
expecting spx test of 1693 support, if that breaks then uvxy can shoot up nicely....need to respect that it will hold first try, but some factors suggesting it can break before 4pm for lower spx and higher uvxy vxx

137
just bought UVXY VXX for scalp, diff trade than uvxy swing, vxx 1599, and 42.24 uvxy, may be quick trade and exit today

132
UVXY is near 42 now but i had a buy signal on it around 43...i think it will go over 43 to 59, swings not today lol. and possibly double in price later.

120
: NUGT making new daily highs. continues march toward upper targets.
up 22% now from fridays close

850
UVXY i still have swing,
4pm system is still on "stay short spx", but as posted many times the longs have better win rate than shorts on 4pm system,

848
GDX may run up to 29 before any pullback, or another 21% in addition to this 14% for 32% on nugt, b4 pullback, hard to say

846
this is what i was talking about other day, why i like holding some NUGT and trading part, it's impossible to consistently time these huge gaps to the minute or day

831
NUGT is current set to gap up a huge 14% higher than friday's close. trading at 7.54 now, closed 6.59 on Friday.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, July 19, 2013

Friday thoughts


327
plus this gdx is right at old Inv Bank level, tho the new level is higher

326
tightening stop on nugt scalp now to lock 8% gain, is ok if miss more up cuz have the swing positino still in it, don't want to risk a drop from 8 to 5%

321
gdx just hit trgt 2 daily trgt...old inv bank level...watching reactions, and new level is 2620
still riding nugt trade second half from few hours ago, now at 8% gain

238
there is some resist at .72 below the .80/.85 gdx trgt...lsat .67 gdx

236
nugt "only" up 10% today lol

234
*** Inv Banks just raised their sell levels from 25.85 to 26.27 GDX...again the 25.85 area usually "sticks" on first try...stalls, tho in the final 90 min poss to blow past it,,,still it likely stalls there. riding the second half of scalp higher nugt

231
gdx just hit .60 trgt, nugt 6.44
.80/.86 next gdx trgt

223
took profit gain nugt 6.38 scalp....holding swing and second half of scalp, 4.5% gain on the nugt bought few hours ago 

222
on half stop .49 v tite, or .60 lim, riding it up


220
order in to take half nugt off at gdx .60 trgt...save half for higher or until stopped....scalp piece not swing

211
NUGT quick trade at 4% gain now, above the 3% from dust...expected the nugt to be higher, still holding it for now....

201
2540/2549 buy sell level on MM...tight range for them...may be trying to push higher...usually if they want lower, the bid would be at 2500 not 2540, tho could be faking and drop bid anytime... earlier today the short side looked fake and it turned out to be fake,,,this look is diff and i think they will go higher with it...watching...

159
compared to rest of today, decent volume on GDX NUGT as it makes new daily highs here, watching if it sustains for a pop to .60 then .80

152
gdx testing highs now...stop tightened hard stop .29 on the scalp piece only...dont usually set these hard but i also have a swing position in nugt to catch any upside i miss on the scalp

1241
GDX has hit the "over .31" trigger...watching for over .40 or not

1230
MM just dropped ask on gdx to .35 in effor to push for .20, may be headfake and not see .20...watching if they hold the ask lower here or pull it

1229
above 2531 in next 3 min, gdx may go higher than .40 before .20

1228
2528 could work,may not get 2520 gdx

1207
GDX has good chance of making a new daily high over 25.43, last 25.36 tho of course respecting resist on first test,,,but i'm not shorting it there, at least not now, esp because the Inv Banks raised their sell levels (tho those raises are often hit the next day not today)

but 25.80, i'd sell part or all of gdx nugt scalp (not swing)

1153
2520 GDX buyable imo if it goes there soon, for scalp, 2528 last, will likely hold 2520 or revisit it if broekn lower.

still holding gdx nugt scalp from lower as posted, but may add at 2520, unsure

1151
if ES decides lower, that could push nugt scalp up v nicely

1150
SPX is starting to see some selling now at es 1682...watching to see what this does

1148
GDX stoch on 5min chart is at 89 overbought but i'm not exiting just because of that...the scalp

1138
2539 adn 2580 gdx trgts intraday on scalp

1138
lol the .33 "just so happens" to be the old "add more short at .34" order (cancelled now tho)

1135
they've raised to .33 now from .28....looks like first mightve been lil headfake,

1135
gdx 2528 sell level...wqatching reaction here gdx...still holding but need to watch reactions, omve lower may present buying opp

1131
MM selling a lil GDX here trying to push it lower so they can buy more...watching closely to see if they hold this selling, if so may exit NUGT GDX scalp and re-enter....this is all NOISE for the nugt swing positinos, scalp info only

again, the MM often head fake on the first move, so giving it a lil time b4 panic exit with 1.5% gain...holding atm

1127
NUGT may go for 640 and 658, higher percent targets than the nugt short or dust long from b4, for 5% and 7% gain instead of 3% dust quick trade

1108
and obviously i cancelled the GDX "add shorts 2534" for now, the add more was never filled as it went lower to trgt instead and i exited

1106
i just went long gdx 2515 nugt 611, reversed from the prev posted short, quick trade, AND i'm willing to hold the long overnight if needed but plan on a quick trade if presents

one must be willing to endure a test of todays lows for this trade, i will NOT exit the trade on lower...this is a diff setup than the short,,,

1100
exited the second half, early, almost same gain, on gdx, and on sidelines,,,i see MM buying a lil here
now the MM often do a headfake, step in buy a lil, then sudden drop bid to lower,,so could really go either way, so im not buying it here but if it can move sideways on 5min chart then may scalp opp direction nugt or gdx long LOL

1057
DUST GDX are now at scalp trgt 1...thus taking profit on half and keeping half
$3 on DUST gain in 1 hour

1052
DUST is up $2 from post to quick trade earlier...tighten stops and ride it higher...(or ride lower GDX)


1045
2523 last, if gdx bounces in next 5-10 min will add to short position scalp else keep what i have if lower instead

order in:  lim add shorts 25.34 if it hits there

1042
RIGHT NOW the MM and Inv Banks buy levels are near 25, near the day lows on gdx nugt, to test retail at 2516 area, will be watching if they raise those levels

1041
25.16 area trgt 1 on scalp short GDX dust, if it holds there then may go long gdx nugt scalp, else see if it wants 2500....both are valid directions atm so need to see reaction at 1515 area if it gets there, if the candles are big red (bearish toward 25) or small red (bullish for up to 2550/2600

1037
GDX 5 min chart that i was mentioning in post above: 2516 hi and 2542 second high, and then 25.25 first low after second high of 2542, is what i was trying to say above,,,no time to post charts on quicktrades,,,,not sure if any of this makes sense LOL

1034
for mid term holds, atm only trading nugt not dust, imo, even if have to hold for several days


1032
GDX 5 min chart scalp: gdx made the old Inv Bank sell level, plus that # just so happened to be a second high on 5 min chart, and rsi 5m was high, so trying the scalp per multiple conditions met not just one. its made one low since on the 5 min chart, second low i'm out half and mayhold half

1020
and will add short at Inv Bank level 2 if it goes there higher first instead of lower, quick trade only, i still like NUGT for a 20--300% move depending on timeframe

DUST 96.75

1018
im doing DUST for quick trade...but gain may be small, and may take a small gain or loss in it if not move...actually im using short GDX cuz gets better fills


1010
take the quick 2% gain if it presents, and step aside, imo

1009
agressive would do DUST here or short nugt gdx, but need to be fast

1007
Inv Banks raised buy level, they may buy NUGT 606, good for next 1-3 hour only or until they change the level

lots of posts, just posting the action as it changes for those interested in seeing how MM and Inv Banks work, and for those that like to quick trade

1005
notice how 5 min chart of NUGT shot fast to 626/629 prior posted numbers and now stalling....as the MM are selling at the old Inv Bank level here

1002
*** Inv Bank just raised 626 to 640, so may hit 625, stall, then 640
The MM will often jump on Investment Banks prior levels when Inv Banks chagne them.

1000
personally i have no intention of taking any off at 629, holding for higher, but quick traders may see a stall in that area, pb opp to buy back, then sell again, rinse, repeat,,,if you want to watch all day LOL


956
NUGT Investment Bank buy sell levels for today:  595/626 and 566/651.
Yesterdays were 583/623 and 562/645.

Note that todays nugt numbers could change as Inv Bank jockey



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, July 18, 2013

Thurs thoughts


1223
does anyone see the bull diverg on VIX chart, 60 min? price:rsi with lower low price but higher rsi?
vxx and uvxy have it too

1220
BTW i use GDX to do analysis and then "apply it" to nugt...cuz i dont like doing analysis on 3x leveraged instruments due to decay and other "games"

1218
MM not Inv bank have a buy level on NUGT at 583 and 562. and some Inv Banks likely would buy 5.62 if it got there. those numbers are good TODAY ONLY

6.23 and 6.45 are the Inv Bank sell levels and they almost always stall at the buy or sell level.


1215
imo nugt gdx long not short is trade for swing, but needs 4-8 more hours before entry per the 60m chart
if one has no nugt, and then 50% size here could work. but i already have some and will not add here, if i didnt have any then i might consider half size here.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, July 17, 2013

wedn thoughts


951
still holding UVXY until 4pm system signal says exit SPX shorts. still on short signal.

944
NUGT 7.80 next major sell point for Investment Banks, smaller ones before then. still see over 12.00 later

i will prob take some nugt off at 7.80 if it gets there, and of course hold half for higher and buy back more on pullback lower.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Monday, July 15, 2013

341
 uvxy is red now but imo has good chance of  at least go to 58 no matter if it goes lower, real trgt is over 58, ...

256
GDX down a lil here but acting as expected, a lil lower would be ok on it....4-8 more hours on the 60min chart for gdx to rest,,,

But GDX may go back up within the 3 day rectangle on 60 min instead of lower, right now its putting in a green candle, then pause, then break the rectange.....whether higher or lower first, imo still will break the rect higher later

1159
GDX charts suggest it may need another 4-8 hours of sideways even down before moving up again. could pop higher sooner, but it would not be horrible if it filled gap lower and would not wreck setup for bounce later. but not buying or adding here since already have enough swing GDX NUGT.



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, July 12, 2013

Friday thoughts


1259
GDX NUGT starting to reverse higher now, 2520 GDX trgt last 2439

1242
2390 gdx i'm waiting b4 adding any gdx or nugt, last 24.25,

1238
look at ultra low vol today in GDX...

1222
quick calc short term uvxy: (50-48) + 50 = 52 trgt which is near gap fill

1220
51.12 MM sell level on uvxy intraday, last 5038

1219
UVXY moving up,now at resist test and looks breakable higher

1204
ES SPY are at 15min support...but imo breakable lower....watching here for weak or no bounce,,,, last 1668 ES

1202
i will add more at lower gdx nugt if it goes lower, else scalp this....note this is DIFF than multiweek gdx nugt positions, its just a scalp

1159
: long gdx here, or nugt....paid premium price
MM just raised the ask, trading it
574 nugt
2451 gdx

1149
lim order to scalp nugt 5.66 if filled, good for next hour only
 CANCELLED 566 nugt order, am going to use GDX instead, will post if scalping

1144
15min nugt chart still allows for a slip lower but if 550/560 holds would be bullish. last 578.
60 min chart suggests a higher high over 6 toward Inv Bank sell levels posted yesterday


1141
watching 1665 ES intraday. if it breaks lower, may see a nice pop on uvxy up

1044
If you look at rsi(14) on SPY since Feb, its warning that a major correction lower in spx is coming...it takes time to manifest but warning is def there...

note that rsi has hit over 66-70ish several times, and stayed over 33 (actually over 40!) until June 24 when it first visited under 40....IF the RSI starts to turn lower here around cure 65 level and does not make 70, it will prob go under 40 to 30. Under 30 would be esp bearish, and suggest that any bounces are going to be sold shorted, just like when it was over the 65 each dip was bought. Mid term multi weeks months hold strategy, not quick swing strategy

1015
and 60.40 area is a gpa fill uvxy


1014
big green candles on uvxy move about $10 if you look back on daily chart,

1011
i have a lim order to sell UVXY 59.00, good for today only, to catch a surge to 60
uvxy up 2% this morn, 59 would give 20%ish

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".


Thursday, July 11, 2013

Tues thoughts



400
3:38 posting: "604 NUGT may stall today"...closed at 6.03



357
bought some uvxy here 48.70
sold some NUGT, up 21% in one day!!!

349
DUST trade went from 20 to 80 about 400 percent...actually went over 80 but exited that early...NUGT has similar power potential

347
NUGT just hit the 605 trgt, trying 618

342
Inv Bank just raised the ask on NUGT>...5.99 last,,now may go over the 604 toward 618

338
604 NUGT may stall today, still trying for 618

326
uvxy 46.80 buy trgt, may pay more, last 48.59

324
lim order to sell part of nugt 6.18 under the 6.22 trgt, may sell lower today

318
plan to sell 25% nugt,hold 75%, and use $ from 25% sale to buy some uvxy

317
NUGT 6.04 Inv Bank lowest sell level, trying to sell a piece there, but will wait because may go for 6.14, 6.22, 6.33..aready hit the 580 trgt

.i only selling 25% of position tho nugt....still see lot higher,,,sounds ridiculous but look how high GDX was before...even half retrace is a lot, weekly chart

940
NUGT is up 18% today. where it was "supposed" to be 2 days ago...trgt 1 hit, higher targets still over 7.00, the new "should be" number on nugt is 6.50-7.00ish, when it gets there it may slow down its accel up.

On Tuesday, We did talk about how it could get to first trgt 580 in one day...its very volatile instrument


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, July 9, 2013

Tues thoughts



352
just took 24% vxx gain and 62% gain on uvxy, from June 25 posting, out, and reversing long

343
but imo still think NUGT is going to be the star performer, just takes time and good to diversify some

340
yest i posted the 4pm sys was close to giving short swing signal on spx but it didn't get stretched enough. If we close here or higher today, we will have a 4pm system short setup alert entry

I'm going to use long spxu and uvxy,  vxx, with a little more allocation to uvxy vxx than spx

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, July 8, 2013

Monday thoughts




1240
if nugt hits 506 then 72% long alert will ring on it and it has good chance of making scalp trgts, 501 last....may happen by 1:12 pm

1237
514 533 nugt trgts scalp
MM levels

1225
reloaded nugt 498, 
bought back shares sold at 514 earlier today

1117
NUGT hit 514 scalp trgt of 3% gain from entry this morning... may be able to reload and scalp again... GDX and NUGT are respecting the Market Maker buy/sell levels...of course the Inv Bank levels are a bigger spread

1006
bull diverg on GDX NUGT 60min chart stoch:price? rsi:price no diverg, but stoch 14,3,3 has one...of course 60min may need more time to refine divergence but atm a bull double bottom on the 60m stoch forming

957
nugt may hold above 480...MM bought 494 and are testing retail right now...
either way, MM are buying here with 5.14 sell level

955
NUGT order filled on 496...may see 480 lower b4 higher

949
lim order to buy nugt 4.96 if able, last 510. scalp timeframe

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Wedn thoughts


1258
nugt just EXACTLY hit the 568 MM level and pulled back....happens when they are sitting on the ask price like that...why if scalping then limit orders work well, to fast to catch manually
of course for swings, doesnt matter

1242
MM sell level 1 at 568 NUGT ... MM not Inv Bank, 560 last
then 580

1034
MM sell level and trgt on GDX intraday 24.62, last 24.22
that puts nugt at 591 and 580 trgts approx.

951
Trigger:
/DX < 83
UUP < 22.50

if /DX us dollar futures close under 83 (or under 22.50 UUP), a major sell signal swing may set up on US dollar, which could cause GDX NUGT to skyrocket to target 1

for the quick trade on NUGT, no plans to exit until at least the 15min chart gets tired, or a surge higher, whichever comes first...at least 2 hours on 15min chart if no surge....multiweek GDX NUGT part of trade obviously using the daily n weekly charts not 15m

942
BUT Inv Banks do not have tight buy levels on GDX or NUGT, so could drop first. small Market Makers and active MM want 23.85 GDX to buy, and may even let it drop under that

941
GDX Inv Bank levels to sell GDX have been raised, they now sit at 24.30, 25.00, 28.00, with the largest banks waiting for 28.00 (16% higher from current 24 level, 40%ish higher on NUGT). not sure its going to 28 vdx but thats the major level atm. interesting that they have chosen a level HIGHER than the gap fill around 26.30. might take awhile to get 28 but thats main target 1 atm, with higher targets on the multiweek holds later

939
fwiw, it's very possible that the 4pm sys is going to give a go long signal (but spx needs lower, or more time, to give one), and then give a short opp later....3-10 day timeframe to hold,

935
nugt up about 5%...still holding quick trade from yest....and holding the multiweek nugt seperate trade also...may exit the quick trade today, no plans to exit multiweek trade until much higher targets

yesterday we posted that  the 4pm system "almost" gave a short signal but didnt trigger ....spx down today... might miss this short opportunity, happens, there will be other opps long or short


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, July 2, 2013

Tues thoughts


349
4pm swing trade sys will NOT give a short spx signal today, it remains in cash neither long nor short after having taken profit on longside....spx may go lower but 4pm system will only short if all criteria are met...spx is not "stretched enough" to trigger a short signal

320
added to GDX NUGT position, nugt 526

1105
long nugt here, scalp, diff than swing nugt, gdx...577 nugt


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, July 1, 2013

Monday thoughts


1149
GDX high volume capitulation red day on June 20, and then a high volume buying day June 28 may mean GDX has bottomed for awhile and is starting it move back up (and by extension NUGT tho using GDX for analysis not the leveraged nugt)

1139
upro up about 4% today. taking quick gain on the quick trade scalp posted on friday.

Still holding the nugt multiweek part for higher targets, actively trading other half


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".