monday thoughts

927
OIL has broken 102 as expected. still swing short from 107.50 oil,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

233
 see the wedge forming in IWM on 60min chart?

bearish day candles developing, BUT a rising wedge...may pop higher to new highs on daily, then retrace lower

1123
NEM trade swing: still same trgt 2940, tho may only make 2920 and pullback...will eval at 2920 but for now 2940 trgt to sell....gdx nugt multiweek swing trgts are much higher

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

mon thoughts

1108
29.40, 29.80 is quick trade trgt 1,2 on nem,,,longer holds higher trgts

932
GDX is down 0.7% at open here, but related NEM is up 0.4%
still holding NEM quikc trade from friday, and nugt gdx multiweek swings

931
OIL continues lower toward swing targets on shorts, still holding, not at trgt yet

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Fri thoughts

314
Autotrader scalp results, for today (assumes deduction for $14 commission roundtrip), :

TNA: 100k = 1697,  50k=779, 25k=320, 5k= (46)
TZA:  100k = 1964, 50k=913, 25k=389, 5k=32

Clearly it does not work on a 5k account.


942
NEM  GDX  NUGT all look good here, for quicktrades and multiweek swings

added NEM 2903

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Oil Chart

Oil continues to look bearish on daily, though its during the topping phase now, so picking spots is important.

right now, i'm on sidelines in oil, waiting for an opportunity to setup

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

343
tho may see 2650 first, i've added some here, with funds avail to add more if later

341
BOUGHT BACK the GDX here 27.34, and will hold this one overnight
the daily chart on GDX has a series of higher lows since June 28, so vdx likely will see higher than
29 before lower than 25

327
OUT early GDX at .50, exited at higher price b4 stopped out...will try to buy later again

325
STOP on nugt gdx quick trade at .46, very tight, will look to buy back later if stopped, lsat .50

323
i'm out of the oil shorts now. it may move lower today, even with a bang, but it's "enough", dont want the risk, so out near lows of day

322
USO daily chart since aug 28 has 3 lower lows, often bounces come after 3, so i'm being cautious with oil shorts from yest, and i will exit them today, and move to sidelines until next setup, then look to buy lower or short higher,

317
MM just raised their bids on GDX to 2 cents away from curr price...bullish for move to .62, then higher levels after pb

316
one could try shorting again oil here...i may be exiting oil shorts from yest from higher levels, in the next 1-45 minutes tho

309
conserv shorts in oil on break of .80 would exit here and try again later, at .65 last...

305
GDX NUGT quick trade up 1% and 3% since entry today, larger positions can sell 25-50% here, and hold rest for higher

215
OIL hit the 105.80 trigger...should break under .67 now for new intraday lows

213
have an order to sell quicktrade gdx 2807 and will try to buy back lower if hit....multiweek swing targets for other gdx and nugt positinos remain over 32 tho

212
MM are selling gdx at 2720 here, BUT because they want to buy at 2702....i'll hold on for now for higher...they are trying to accum for a move to 2770...Inv Banks have higher sell level of course

210
IDEA: if oil breaks 105.80, add short (below mkt). or, try to short at 106.00-106.40 range, whichever comes first (lower or higher)

208
27.70 gdx trgt 1 mini

206
MM (not Inv Banks) raised their buy and sell levels on gdx, so i jumped in early for a quick trade

205
leaving room to add more gdx at lower levels

205
LONG gdx early 2704

204
oil breaking, on decent 3min volume chart

200
oil testing 106 support now and looks breakable lower

151
i have an order in to buy GDX at 26.52 if it gets down there, good for today only

143
i'm OUT of the USO oil puts bought yesterday, at 10% gain, under the 20% gain target , i do expect them to go higher (lower oil) but don't want to hold the puts because they decay

i will continue holding the SCO and short USO however, for lower oil and higher SCO. atm, sco is near break-even point or small gain.

but puts options accomplished their purpose and plan, so exited early

927
OIL is trading lower here as market nearing the open

921
VIX still around 13.50 at yest close,,,still susceptible to moving to 1180--1200ish area, if u look back on daily chart its a common area,,VIX not VXX

918
same plan as yest for oil:

PLAN: now that cash is freed up as result of sales in GDX and NUGT, if the oil uso PUTS do not move today, i will SELL the PUTS at a loss and replace with short USO and/or SCO...since the USO will not decay like the puts do... the puts were a temporary 2 day measure to enable an entry position in oil yesterday before the cash was freed from GDX

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wed thoughts

314
PLAN: now that cash is freed up as result of sales in GDX and NUGT, if the oil uso PUTS do not move today or tomorrow, i will SELL the PUTS tomorrow at a loss and replace with short USO and/or SCO...since the USO will not decay like the puts do... the puts were a temporary 2 day measure to enable a position in oil before the cash was freed from GDX

309
GDX hit 28.43 Inv Bank sell level trgt

29.03 next sell level GDX but its starting to get stretched now, and may pull back to 2750 area where i'd add in coming hours days

301
OUT of NUGT quick piece 7302, will look to reload later...still have multiweek swing for over 110 trgt

253
GDX hit 27.80 trgt, last 2786

252
22% move up in NUGT in one day, that stuff is v volatile this year

251
2840 new Inv Bank sell level, from 2780 prior one...stall at 2780 would make sense, but Inv Banks running away from selling and waiting for higher levels

227
atm the OIL puts and SCO are red, but imo still will go back to at least break-even

226
2755 raised stop
wont keep posting every change,,,manually trailing thhe stop

225
tigth stop, 2739, on gdx now, on active piece, last 2744,,,v tite may get stopped but will protect gains....

221
GDX stalled 27.38, right near prev posted 2740 old Inv Bank level, normal behavior...still waiting on 2780 tho

215
have order to sell some gdx nugt at 2780 (active piece),,,holding multiweek swing for gdx targets over 34 though

212
2740 and 2780 are old and new Inv Bank sell leveld on gdx, last 2709

203
GDX and NUGT large moves up, after FOMC

143
have order to sell options on oil uso at modest 21% gain if able, modest target, not looking for 100% or double

1217
move in oil volatile enough, so bought PUTS in USO, rarely trade options but looks good here

1132
oil 105.35 or sco 28.70 approx exit area if able, then will re-eval

1102
105.79, added mor oil shorts, sco

953
long SCO 2877. trgt 10-80 cents. scalp. took at oil 105.14

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

233
increased volume in oil now...some whipsaw

1144
at CL 108.70, added oil shorts

1052
OIL supp at 107.85, watching to see if that holds or breaks,,,if holds too long will take quick gain on scalp oil short and look to re-enter long or short later,,,but will give a chance to break lower first...last 108 oil

1039
shorted oil 108.30, could use short USO or long 2x SCO

1039
VIX (not vxx) 12.00-12.50 area, i'd be interested in long uvxy...last 13.74....VIX has a history of big bouncing at 12, but dribble lower above that

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

356
OUT of uvxy, dont want to hold it overnight, small gain nothing much, but leaving cuz dont want to hold overnight, will look for re-entry another time

330if spy breaks .80, may see nice pop in uvxy, last 3407 uvxy

216
finally getting some big green candles UVXY 15min...watching to see how this follows thru...its only initial stages so limited modest upside, but maybe its the start?

1202
there she goes,,,spy starting lower quickly after entry :)
modest trgts tho, scalp

1156
LONG here UVXY, scalp

weakness a lil tiredness on the 3min spy es charts may give a lil pb and a bounce in uvxy higher

1151
now waiting on oil sidelines,,,,if it pulls back then may go long,,,if it can creep higher then i may short it,,,but here in the middle i'm staying out

1150
OUT of oil
very small gain, but it went lower then i wanted for scalp, so i'm out and will look for other opps,,,

1115
IF gdx closes over 26.80 it may be a bullish reversal candle on daily, has a big green candle now after big red one, on 60m chart

1009
1690--1705 area is where i'd be interested in uvxy swing, unless ES does pattern mentioned yest

1003
long oil cl uso uco, scalp

940

went long GDX, quick swing, may exit today tho


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

tues thoughts

358
busy day, 8 daytrades roundtrip, 8 winners, 0 losers, no fancy layering scaling, single buy sell points

356
OUT uco uso scalp, small gain

341
after 4:00pm, i'll have a significant update on INVESTMENT BANKS in oil....poss impt data, not common, that was put in place today

336
will cash oil shorts, non futures, cover and push uso to trgt?
if not, any selling here in oil in next 30 min is likely institutional not retail...in oil

333
low vol pop higher in oil here...still trying to sell my scalp longs,,,toughest trade of the day

306
167 spy b4 170 would be bearish, and i'll short swing that setup if it presents
if spy tests 170 then likely a wedge higher to form
bears need to "stop" a test of resist....a test of resist in spy usually means pb then higher
 needs lower highs, equal highs no good for shorts

305
todays spy candle...is bearish but needs confirmation
for swings

241
i have an order to sell at USO 38.53 if able, last 38.37. i may sell sooner

223
have uso uco order to sell at uso 3870 scalp but may sell sooner


223
 watching for poss 38.54 "stop run" poke higher in USO, and 3870 tho 3870 seems a stretch for today..last 3835

202
oil long is now up testing resist...if it stays near resist too long, i'll exit...but giving it a brief chance to break resist

1259
why long oil? because it "should have" stayed under 107.36 to stay intraday bearish, instead it tested 107.36 (where we quick shorted),,but the fact that it made it "up there" to test, suggests that the 107.36 could break higher intraday, for a possible run up to 108.20, tho thats beyond the "scalp target" range....will just trade it actively

1257
LONG oil scalp, here at 107.00, via uso or uco

1245
OUT of sco, quick gain scalp
oil may go lower, and sco higher, but this break of 107 could be a "stop cleaner" and may reverse higher in oil, so took the scalp gain...on sidelines

exited on the 107 oil break lower, in case it was headfake


1223
sco is 2x short oil

1223
28.13 long SCO
scalp

1210
OUT 72.20 upro, took gain

1150
LONG upro 71.90, scalp
may be fast trade

1139
OUT , took gains on uvxy scalp at 3685, early exit but spy is up today so trading the scalp quickly

1137
mid-day....Market Makers generally run through the stop areas and then reverse, as long as stop is based on 15 or 60min chart....daily chart support and resist u might not get that good of reaction, since its stronger

1136
idea: think of where u would place a "stop"...of its a good area to place a "take profits here"
or a good place to buy new position

1135
will prob exit uvxy before 37.80 but have order there to sell in case it surges,,,the uvxy can move uber fast

1134
UVXY kicking in now, scalp

1116
glad to be out of oil breakeven...its lower now....thats why i took a "breakeven" exit on oil...had a lower stop but it wasnt acting as expected, so exited before stopout...

1114
when i trade vix...uvxy vxx xiv, i ALWAYS use the SPY chart in additino to VIX vxx uvxy charts, without exception, and will only trade the VIX if SPY is "tired" or "extended"

1103
SPY should pullback a little here, and push uvxy up

1103
took long UVXY, scalp fast,
out of oil break-even, small gain

1045
silver should pullback, oil should drift up, intraday,,,will re-buy silver prob when i exit oil

1044
long oil uso 38.18, may be fast trade, still see lower oil for swings, this is just a quick trade, buying support

1037
still holding quick swing GDX NUGT and mid term swings gdx nugt for higher, the UVXY XIV SLV is faster trade

1035
OUT of slv, fast gain,,,will look to re-buy later, 22.14
1.4% gain on USLV, less than 2 hours holding

1001
long USLV  SLV here 22.03 slv

959
OUT 26.36 XIV

949
ES may want to try for 1693, last 1679

941
long xiv, scalp

939
SPY stalling, so will let it see whta it does here, spy may bounce, watching sidelines now

938
OUT uvxy 36.87
took quick gain

934
bought some uvxy, may be a fast trade, 36.6
SPY is at a resist level

930
GDX is also down 2.2%

929
OIL is lower this morning, big red 60m candles, down 2.4%, still see test of 102 then break lower in time

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Mon thoughts

151
SPY hit the 10:08 short trgt of 167.32, but as mentioned, not shorting it yet here but waiting, and trailing the stop on the long instead

130
thus far volume on USO daily oil is low, so being very cautious here with the shorts and will be quick to take profits on at least half position...can always re-enter...watching here now for reactions on test of support in oil

115
next pb in gdx nugt, i'll buy...will let it go up first then buy pb...may take awhile, moving up nicely now

109
27.60 lim order to sell sco oil

255
27.58 long GDX for quicktrade, first entry here, 7127 nugt

252
just not worth risking gains on a quick trade oil short entered this morn and friday...very low volume in USO, so opted to lock gains in favor of higher gains later...out of both the upro xiv and sco oil quick trades for now

251
took gains on SCO 2719...will re-eval later, for quicktrade
just not worth risking gains on a quick trade oil short entered this morn and friday...very low volume in USO

224
missed spy sell by pennies at .77, posted b4....exited near there manually at .70

1230
spy long trade shows that sometimes need to change gears...initially wanted to short but didnt get trgt, so switched long on pb, thinking that short trgt would come later, spy spx

1224
oil 108.80 may stall and give bnc if it gets there, for active part of trade, last 10940

1217
new highs on spx...trailing the stop on longs

1152
oil has broken :) ...will trade half of this oil short actively quickly, other half more patiently, from entries posted friday and today


1149
SPY UPRO SPX near daily high, tightening stop or taking gains on half for scalps both make sense here

1141
oil testing .50 again....breakable lower

1135
stop tightened on spy to breakeven, and will keep a looser stop on SCO oil and trade the sco since its moving bigger

1129
near 109.75 oil on expected break today under 107.50....will quick trade 50-100% of sco

1128
ADDING SCO here as way to short oil

1044
i put in order to sell longs at SPY 167.77 if it gets a surge up there, will prob sell lower but order is placed in case of surge....and i willl no longer auto short at prev posted level but will rather wait and adjust the short entry later, as well as exit of longs

1039
scalping LONG es here, upro,spy
will reverse if short trgt is hit.

1019
the 15min oil chart has a big red candle (last) and thre small green ones b4 the red...usually it will break support lower in this pattern, bounces shortable for quicktrades in oil

1018
OIL testing supp at 109.50...if that breaks should give trgt 1 and give an exit on quicktrade short oil via long sco

1008
missed spy short by only a few pennies, so now RAISING not lowering the short level to short at spy 167.32, may short lower later, but for now, level raised...i'm not chasing it now, rather letting it go to the "real" trgt now at 167.40ish with order just under that

1002
may be interested in long GDX or NUGT in 1 hour from now, not before, will check again later...needs to base on at least the 15min chart whicch requires at least 4 candles

still have gdx and nugt multi week timeframe hold, for gdx over 32 targets, the above post is for quicktrade on gdx nugt

959
Inv Bank levels say they are on sidelines for now, with spy buy sell levels far away at 162 and 171,, will post if they change

for now, Inv Banks are letting Market Makers, and retail "do the work"

957
for swings i guess this is close enought here, 167.00 spy, but could go 167.40 resist
: i'm waiting since i'm quick trading it

952
another 2-3 point on ES should fill the short spy or spxu 3x longs

949
that's a main level in spy, so could also work for swing shorts there,

948
i have Order to buy SPXU at the market price, if SPY hits 167.19, last spy 166.80...may or may not get filled..spxu is 3x short SPY, for quicktrade

924
oil 107ish trgt 1...good enough for me for quick trade...imo going under 102 mid term swing
107 would give about 3-4% quick gain in sco

921
shorted oil friday, its down a little now, watching to see how much it will move

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

358
sold some gdx swing here, and replaced with SCO,,,,still have nugt gdx sco swings but reduced gdx to make room for oil

356
sCO moved nice...took some off as mentioned, and holding rest sco (2x oil short) swing

344
oil didnt move as much as i wanted today, so holding some of this SCO...howerver i will lighten up on it and sell some today, and keep some for later...shares sold today will be near cost, or small profit, but selling to reduce risk and make capital available for monday, not in order to take gains

we will see what it does in next 10 min, then sell at 355--400pm some sco

1209
back...cancelled order to sell SCO and will do manually now,,,same trgts 2699, 2730, 2780

1133
lowered SCO trgt 1 to 26.99. going out for awhile so order is in to sell if it hits there, for small gain.

1049
Quicktrade - took long sco (2x short oil)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

411
** 4pm Swing system signaled an "exit long upro spx" today....took profits.... for agressive only, it also signaled a "short spx spy" today also, tho it might have rung early.

4.5% gain on trade closed today on upro.


143
72% long scalp almost ready to ring, on ES...intraday scalp not swing signal

1135
166.70 spy trgt

1003
1668--1674 would be nice levels to short ES, if it gets there

956
i bought long scalp primarily because ES broke over 1657 overnite resist...could be headfake but that break will  usually give at least 2 more points

so i bought the mini pullback...would usually wait for more pb or sideways tho

954
1657.75 i took long ES...its scalp only, may only get 2 points on it, with 1662 trgt if able

951
or short ES 1662 if that comes first

950
ES daytrades: first pb on es likely be bought so long on pb, then short the second high later

948
GDX 2785, 2752, and 2700 are horiz support numbers. BUT Inv Banks have buy level curiously placed at 27.35

945
btw, 4pm sys can stay in this "almost" ready to exit status for more than one day,,,sometimes several...if a wedge forms it will stay there several days

944
GM all...4pm system still on "hold long spx upro" and might give an exit signal to "take profits".. we are also getting close to a short signal spx

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

345
GDX NUGT woke up

1019
28.80 trgt 1 quick trade SCO oil, last 28.01. will sell half at 2880 and keep half for higher targets. may actively trade first half and sell b4 2880 if it does not move much today.

959
oil breaking...new daily lows on uso cl,, new highs on sco

942
adding oil shorts here, valid for quicktrade and swing, at last CL oil 107.30.

it may try to rally more, if so then i'll more above.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

tues thoughts

325
lowered order to sell to 28.84 GDX, 25% of shares, to hold remaining half for higher (already sold 25% earlier today)

304
74% now on spx intraday long signal

211
72% long scalp signal almost ready to ring on ES SPY UPRO,,intraday only not swing signal
last spy 164.07,,1634.50 ES

209
Market Makers just raised the bids on GDX, tho they still have some resist at .72 area

144
.71 resist before .90

144
that bullish 3min pattern on GDX has formed...now watching if it goes over .60 toward .90

122
28.60+(28.60-28.30) = 28.90 trgt for 3min chart pattern, which "just so happens" to be near the daily high...gdx

120
watching the 3min chart now on gdx...if its bullish then with stoch over 80 here, it pulls back then makes another high, before it goes to stoch 20...will see what the pattern does

115
GDX NUGT are at trgt 1 now

1124
have order to sell quick trade piece of nugt gdx at gdx 2970. last 2853, may sell under that 2970.
MM and *Inv Bank Sell levels: gdx 2860, *29.09, *29.47, *30.52.  I've chosen 29.70 because if 2909 is hit then the Inv Bank will likely set a new level near 2970.

1108
scalping gdx nugt here, 2842

953
the 4pm swing system remains on "hold long spx upro" today. it will prob NOT give an exit signal toady, but might tomorrow or following days. remember, the biggest part of the move often comes in this "almost ready to exit" phase of the 4pm system.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".