tues thoughts

400
remember: "overbought" does not always mean lower, sometimes it means sideways

356
fortunately today, GOLD gave a warning before gdx fell hard, and was able to exit and take some gains on the warning

354
glad took gains on the quick swing gdx nugt...its going to be impt to see if it moves sideways or lower in coming hours days. im on the sidelines on the quick swings on gdx, both long and short r tricky here imo, but multimonths i see higher vdx

328
note that financials weaker than spx. xlf vs spy, as was the case last week and for awhile

322
i bought a half size position of SRS etf

317
gold looking tired. protecting profits and taking some gdx off here. 60min charts

i still have multiweeks month hold on gdx nugt tho, 2 separate trades

202
OIL is creeping higher here but imo still goes lower for swing. notice the volume on the 60min chart of USO

high vol red candle, low col green candles

1248
GDX just marginally broke  resist...watching to see if it gets follow thru intraday higher

1209
silver shoudl test higher 22.75/23.20
: gold should test 1360

951
uso to fill gap lower on daily/60m chart, another trgt, about 1% lower uso, 2% higher eco approx

but i'll hold oil shorts for now 

946
oils. that first trgt would boost sco about another 3% higher in gains from here, approx

943

still short oil via longs in sco. watching to see what oil does if it gets to 99.80 area, target ...will it hold or break support lower....will hold or close accordingly

938
4pm sys still on hold shorts, this one may take a loss, we will see

937
GM all...taking gains on UNG shorts, double sized position

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

fri

256
 took gains on half the gdx nugt scalp that bought earlier today. holding other half overbite

223
look at gold gld: it has already broken OVER its prev 60min highs...breaking right now

219
UNG may try for new highs 28.20 and 28.68...before lower...i'm not adding anything to UNG tho

210
it needs more time, but notice the bull triangle forming on the lines of the 20 and 50 mov avg on 60min chart...rising 50ma and flat 20ma

its beginning to look like gdx will see over 27 before 25, if this continues...will be watcing the action

27.30 is inv level sell for GDX, last 26.60

118
GDX hsa broken above 15min chart resist as expected, going for test of 2685

1208
scalping GDX again here....in addition to multi week swing

initial trgt on scalp: 1.5%ish gdx, or 4%ish nugt
trgt 2 is 4% gdx gain, 12% nugt

the multi week hold has much higher targets of course, over 50%

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs

348
GDX: recovered all of yest losses, and on to new daily high just now

324
someone bought USO, but AFTER the earlier vol on CL futures...still see lower USO OIL for swings tho, and i remain in SCO

323
USO 5min volume: they may close oil higher at 103

230
vol on UNG 5min chart picking up

151
oil is now testing 60m support, still see lower oil,swing

1012
: just doubled swing position in short oil via SCO
it's also scalpable, daytrade or quicktrade with poss hold overbite

1011
just doubled swing position in short oil via SCO

1004
FAZ swing is doing nice now

1000
For swings, gdx is acting bullishly at least right now. notice how the 60min chart is beginning to get oversold, but the price on the daily doesnt have severe damage

gdx is acting like roadmap posted test, but still needs a few more hours to see if it wants another try for lower or not

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn

358
4pm sys update
SPY is "almost there"...may see a decent move lower in coming day(s)

322
UNG: look at Feb 4 candle, then todays candle. then look at feb 5 candle

216
FAZ swing is green but not at target yet, still holding it

311
GDX..imo tomorrow may be a "BUY MORE" day gdx, nugt, depending on chart...

309
SPX SPY 4pm sys update: will update again at 3:55pm, but right now, 4pm sys is approaching a change to "exit long and go short" BUT HAS NOT SIGNALED YET, and its not even "almost there", its at about 60%, when it gets to 80% then it will be "almost there".... just mentioning here as an update, and a reminder that the biggest move often comes right after the "almost there"....often thats where most of the profit gain comes from...


304
took small gain on half the scalp from earlier today, KOLD
could go lower into close, but not risking it,,,it also went higher than expected, so being cautious
STILL SWING SHORT the UNG tho, the kold was just a scalp\

i've doubled my UNG short position, swing, today

258
UNG: last time RSI was under 30 on the small timeframe 5 min chart was feb 14, thats kinda long for the 5 min....not talking about the 60min

254
stat: the last 5min candle on UNG was the highest volume 5 min candle since feb 11

205
gdx will be interesting to see what it does in next 2-12 daytime trading hours daytime. the 60min is starting to get oversold, but it has not dropped much on the daily, which would be bullish for swings...of course it could drop in the remaining time

155
today we have seen "more than normal" volatility on eS....not a steady drip up....we may see a larger than usual move in the 200-300 timeframe today

GDX has been in range last few days 26.00--26.67, testing near 26.00 now...watching to see if it stays in range or breaks

scalping KOLD now , short nat gas

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

tues

309
took scalp gains on half scalp nugt (scalp not swing, holding swing piece)

247
GDX NUGT scalp giving us the breakout here, tightening stops, stretch trgt vdx 26.97

102
gdx nugt scalp could work here

slv making new intraday highs

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday

345
big bearish reversal on UNG today after hitting a high early in day, on v low vol, now red and dropped 3%

120
realllllllyyyyy low vol on ung today  compared to prior 10 days

107
slv took profit on half off, quick n easy scalp, stopped half

1253
a few minutes later, heres expected marginal break in silver,,,new daily high, watching for move higher

1246
silver intraday is acting stronger than gold, so chose silver

1245
took a long in SLV quicktrade. may exit today or hold overnight. i expect it to break ovre 2050 to new daily highs

1118
shorted oil here swing, via long SCO, 30.30

1039
now we just need UNG to drop so i can close short there, curr red UNG short but felling ok with it, its acting normally

exited the ung long too early and went short a bit early on it, but at least the long gave a gain, and hoping for net gain on both trades (long + short)


1029
took gains on gdx nugt from yest, 3% / 9% in 1 day

951
 interesting,,,maybe bad data, because i was NOT stopped out here on the wick to 26.27 vdx

946
26.40 raised sell stop on gdx nugt for half position, other half holding for weeks more

943
GDX yesterday Inv Bank buy/sell  levels 24.45/25.88 and 26.00 secondary sell.
Will have updated levels for today shortly, they r fluttering around atm

937
NUGT gdx gapped up as expected today, i have a stop on yesterdays NUGT GDX at 26.20 GDX to protect gains. 1 day gains 6-7% nugt,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs

358
may see a gap up on GDX in morn..notice gold GLD /gc

356
holding shorts in spx and ung. holding longs in GDX NUGT overnight

127 adding vdx here nugt
should make new daily highs

1214
OIL may pop higher,,,still waiting to short that,,,been waiting all week,no entry yet

1210
also have the 24.13ish prior inv bank level as trgt lower ing

1207
may be a bit early if looking at 5 min chart, but 15min sugg poss pb UNG

1206
shorting 2478 UNG here, for quick trade, first target 24.40

1133
 nugt trgt is 150ish from 26, last is 45.60...tho we wont see "150" on the chart because it splits a lot

1131
 new gdx nugt bought yest doing well, up 6% today nugt, and nugt up a whopping 73% from 26.00 level

1128
ung may decline to 24.40, then up to 25.00...a move here from 2480 to 2440 would be normal if it does not break resist on first try....

1001

Inv Bank Buy sell levels UNG now are 23.50 / 25.00

UNG old sell levels 25.01, 24.52, 24.80

UNG old buy level 23.14

GDX current levels 24.45/25.88

GDX Inv Bank levels from yesterday :  24.50 / 26.00

But remember the "old" numbers, as they tend to also stick as explained other day

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn

333
will cover 22.80 ung good today only, after that will adj price

412
added more shorts spx fax spxu

348
i'm going to buy some more GDX nugt today, swing, and leave room to add more later if it goes lower in coming days, building long term position in it,,atm have a half size position, will add another 25% more today

 waiting until 3:55 or so to buy

329
adding some UNG shorts here again...headed lower

241
Inv Bank buy/sell levles on GDX i'm waiting for:  24.50 / 26.00

238
if UNG can get back to 2450ish i will prob add more shorts, last 23.92

210
for UNG: Inv Bank buy level 1 is still same at 23.14...might cover my shorts there, or hold for break under it, depending on chart action

1203
UNG: note how the Inv Bank levels are respecting and working: the 24.50 sell level was pierced higher, but now its under it...this is waht almost always happens, and lets traders swing or scalp around the Inv Bank levels...they tend to be v reliable

1106
Inv Bank buy raised sell levels on UNG:  to 25.01 from 24.52 and 24.80 ... remember the "old" levels usually stick, or are revisited...so if those levels are met or pierced higher, it should retrace back lower to them, still have half size short, no additions yet... nothing unusual in UNG behavior so far

1043
timing analysis: per 60m chart analysis: UNG "should" go sideways/up for next 4 hrs, if it does NOT then it would be bearish...it's why i only have a half size short on it, because it's early entry...but other things are hinting it might fail early...we will see... i might ADD more shorts higher at 24.50/24.80ish if it gets there, last 24.06....but "higher" would NOT invalidate the trade plan

1034
im SHORTING ung here, 24.01....half size only,

1011
i still might try for a quick short on ung before long again
no entry yet, but port has cash avail to buy more GDX NUGT SPXU or maybe short UNG, freed up cash on sales yesterday in half GDX, PFE

1011
note that they've dropped the ask on ung,,,i think it was 2480ish, if so its a bit bearish intraday....still see over 2500 ung later but may drop to 23 or lowr first

1009
curr Inv Bank buy sell levels on UNG:  23.14 / 24.52

1007
oil has popped higher as expected, still waiting for swing short oil entry, getting close

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

tues

341
took gains on half the ged / nugt...will try to buy again lower later

247
im OUT of UNG for now, just sold, for smaller profit than Dragon had...imo UNG higher on swings but didnt really like UNG action even tho it "followed the roadmap"

i want to let UNG whip around awhile more and get into a narrower less volatile daily range, for my purposes of mid term swing not quick swing, so out for now
 still have same targets on UNG, i just being conservative and want to sit it out, esp since there are other opps... always an pop somewhere

UNG i do not like that it pierced the Inv Bank level 23.30, even tho its now over it 23.80....it suggests higher UNG but also suggests that perhaps Inv Banks are not done buying yet and they may try to press it down again....its v choppy

1214
: on UNG: this was posted on friday 223 pm: 23.30 was a prior Inv Bank level...almost ALWAYS a stock will bounce back to those buy levels even if it pierces below it,,,have posted many examples of that in the past. the Inv Banks have simply dropped their bids, because some of the smaller banks and retail may sell here, and they just want it cheaper if they can get it. a normal thing on UNG would be: break 23.30 lower, break 22.90 toward 22.80ish,,,,then later go back over 23.30...tho not back over today if it hits 22.80ung now at 23.47.

today tues:  notice how today, ung is now back above that old Inv Bank buy level 23.30,

1210
in faz 22.22

bought FAZ, half size...may add more later, swing. 4pm sys will give a short signal if spx closes here or higher, and one could short spx via short spy or long sds spxu. i've chosen to specifically short the FINANCIALS here as they are weaker. official 4pm sys signal does not come until 3:55pm

1206
took gains on PFE. exited.

1148
woww nugt up 12% today vs test

1056
GDX has gapped up the last 2 days, and is at highs of today so far
today might be spot where i take some partial gains on GDX NUGT multi week positions, but i'd keep half, only sell half and then look to buy that half back again later... short term after today it could pullback but target is still almost another 100% higher here on GDX, and more on nugt


gdx up 1.7% nugt 5.5% pfe  ung 2% all higher today.
nugt continues its quest.
still see higher PFE swing, higher targets on all vdx nugt pfe ung.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

mon

1031
4pm sys on SPY SPX may give a swing short signal today...its at "enter new short now" but its not 3:55pm,,,,only takes trades based on conditions at 3:55pm

NUGT up almost 10% in 1 day
PFE up
UNG down 1.5%

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday

336
see GDX? If it closes here or higher, it closing right at resistance on the daily chart,,,thats bullish because its very easy to get OVER resistance if the stock gaps on the next day....always be mindful of stocks that "close" on support or resist levels....its very easy to break the next day, and when it breaks it triggers stops,,,,in GDX case it could gap over 2420,  then trigger a move to 25/26

259
added more ung, buy #2, swing

256
: just bought initial starter position in UNG at 23.68...buy signal triggered 78%
still will add to it at lim 22.85 but looks headed higher now


253
"failure" to test 23.30 today on ung...would be bullish imo...as it means that some buyers showed up ABOVE the Inv Bank buy levels

248
y: good for today only,,,i will book some gains on GDX NUGT if GDX gets 23.47
still see vdx to 50, so will only sell part of it, and will try to buy back next week if it gets 24.47 today

223
23.30 was a prior Inv Bank level...almost ALWAYS a stock will bounce back to those buy levels even if it pierces below it,,,have posted many examples of that in the past

the Inv Banks have simply dropped their bids, because some of the smaller banks and retail may sell here, and they just want it cheaper if they can get it

221
a normal thing on UNG would be: break 23.30 lower, break 22.90 toward 22.80ish,,,,then later go back over 23.30...tho not back over today if it hits 22.80

219
** i just dropped my bid on UNG
now 23.01 lim order, not 23.30

144
good for today only, i have a lim order to buy UNG 23.33 if it gets there, lsat 23.78, for a bounce to first trgt 24.73 then stall, then pb, then higher. swing

i'm using the 1x ung not the 2x or 3x because i dont want to deal with decay. willing to hold this awhile and add to it. 50% position size if filled

1031
60min charts on SPY IWM XLF have bearish Head Shoulder patterns....for some it might be easier to see the bullish inv HS on fas tza

1013
UNG is lower 3.2% this morn but should be ok for swing longs, i have not bought any UNG yet but might today

we mentioned yesterday that UNG might go lower today, before higher

1012
but nugt is up 6% this morn, still have the nugt GDX PFE longs

1012
well 4pm sys left some profits on the table with its early exit swing long yest...usually it would have held longer as posted, but it took an early exit because the prior selling was harsh and it was at resist and 29 other reasons LOL

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs

359
4pm sys in cash, took gains on long spx iwm and volatil shorts,,,,,4pm sys waiting for next signal...it might be long or short next, idk

spx can easily creep higher, overshoot resist, then back lower, on daily...but on sidelines now cash for SPX....still have longs in PFE  GDX SLV SLW

356
took gains on 75% of shares in shorts in VXX UVXY and in long XIV....will reload another day, and keep 25% now

UVXY dropped 20% today :)

still see lower vix, lower uvxy, higher xiv, but its choppy and i'm respecting SPX resist after a harsh selling... so took gains on the vix to be safe

1147
fwiw, big "bad tick" wick down on SPY 1min chart just now, not on ES
could just be bad data, just making the observation

1121
spx is at trgt posted 2 days ago..tho often it overshoots higher, headfakes, etc...taking the gain here on half, as "good enough"

5 min charts say spy es SPX may pb intraday

notice the inverse relationship between GDX and SPX continues intraday, as gdx is now bouncing

1121
took quick gains on half of XIV bought 2 days ago, as SPX is now at resist and may pullback intraday, forcing vix higher and xiv lower

1021
 GDX NUGT: might give long entries for swing in coming hours days....
its consolodating on daily, and if it can hold up in the range here, would be bullish for next trot higher

v
totally normal to see a little weakness in GDX because of the surge on SPX

1006
wow sudden move on the VIX down here on 5min chart, good for XIV longs and shorts in VXX UVXY

934
 the 4pm sys will prob signal a "take profits on long SPX" today if ES closes over 1757ish...

remember that this time, its going to give an "exit early" signal and move to cash...not to a short reversal position as explained posted yesterday

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn

105
SPY gap now filled on 15min chart...short term bullish act

1234
4pm sys is still on hold longs from 2 days ago

 4pm does not give price trgts, it uses multiple conditions plus price volume, not price alone...but u can "simulate" it to get price trgts...it says SPY should bounce over 178.50 in fowrard simulation mode, tho i'm not sure it gets that high

 theres resist on the chart near 177 spy

btw, 4pm sys is "self adjusting"...it usually gives an "exit long" signal when 89% of conditions are true, BUT this time it's self adjusted to sell the longs at 78% true (lower, sooner, more conservative)? Why? becuase the sys "sees" that the selloff was "harsher" than normal, so will exit earlier,,and then prob stay in cash not long or short, awaiting next signal


1128am
 the intraday chop on SPX ES continues
whipsaw up and down intraday

SPX key levels for 4pm closing price (short term swing timeframe):
below 1735 would be bearish
over 1760 would be bullish

multiweeks swings/positions timeframe: still bearish, and Inv Banks want lower

Multiweeks timeframe simple idea: short volatility vix using UVXY and or VXX, should work better than long XIV due to decay on the XIV leveraged instrument

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

205
interesting that 1x PFE is up 2.5% and 3x TNA only up 1.67% today...pfe showing strength admist weakness in DOW SPX

and pfe had higher hi yest and today both days, tho its being sold off from the new highs

however as posted test, imo there are still un-squeezed shorts in pre, and should see more upside to targets posted yest

154
well long PFE and XIV long and UVXY short VXX short are all working well from yest entries, no exit yet, will let them bake awhile longer before taking profits. also stil in GDX NUGT multi week positions

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday

356
im shorting UVXY VXX, long XIV, quick swing
trading the volatility ETFS

344
remember that 4pm sys uses 30+ "conditions" in addition to price, its signals do not come based on price alone, so any "suggested targets on price" that i get are from "forward forecast simulation" based on velocity and conditions AT THE TIME the sim is run....

Investment Banks reports are now showing signs of buy dips, sell rips mentality and action by the larger banks..volatility may increase and we may be seeing some chop for awhile in the coming days weeks, with big ups and downs

342
"4pm swing system" suggests that SPY might try for a bounce up to 178.80 area, or 1790ish spx not es.... if it manages a bounce the "multiweek position system" may give an "add shorts" signal...multiweek remains on short, while 4pm sys playing the squiggles says buy long today at 3:55pm

i'm not sure SPY will get over 177.00ish tho

317
if gdx could close over 23.35 today, it would be signif and suggest more bullishness for vdx nugt.
tho tomorrow i'd maybe be a buy in GDX if it decides to go lower instead, swing, multi weeks.

316
sellers are waiting at 1760--1763 ES,

313
the 5 min chart "should" bounce, tho it may be limited... 60 min needs another few hours.
Last ES 1736

200
32 and 34 approx trots on PFE

200
they reported on jan 28...and pay a dividend in a few days

159
data suggests that shorts have NOT been squeezed out of pfe yet, shorts entered before earnings but the stock went sideways up after earnings, not down....could see a nice bounce on pfe as the shorts get squeezed ....even a small bounce in the DOW or SPX could trigger it

156
LONG....i just bought PFE at 30.75, swing...individual stock pfitzer, a dow jones comp on

144
Im taking profits on 25% of shorts here at TF 1090, via tza

136
might be BETTER for bulls if it goes lower today and doesnt bounce, rather than bouncing today, though that sounds backwards

135
SPX is now at or near daily support but could still slip another 10 points or so lower from here today

134
if it were 4pm right now, 4pm sys would say "go long spx"... it will prob give a long signal today
with modest gain expectation from 4pm sys
other sys, for multi weeks months holds though, says stay short....

if the 4pm sys gives a LOSS on this long, it would be significant, as it did 100% wins in 2013 and 78% wins over last 10 years...that is, poss trend change to bearish, if a loss comes from this signal




1223
approaching 1746 spx support level on daily, tho i'm not adding longs at support. remaining short.

1101
see the small descrpancy between cash SPY and futures ES?  SPY is "further away" from broken support...look at daily chart lows

930
NUGT multi week hold now at 46% gain,,,still holding for much higher targets
Entries were posted here earlier.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".