Key levels to watch in SPX: 1014, 1004, 991, 987, 979

A retracement of the advance from 978 up to 1039 is in progress.

Key levels to watch in SPX:

Horizontal support/ resistance: 1014, 1004, 991, 987, 979

Fibs: 1016, 1008, 1002, 991, 978

Fibs chart

Horizontals:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

new positions WMT (short) and TZA

Entered today:

Short WMT 50.95

Long TZA 15.85

(Long TZA but it is an inverse ETF, so when the Russel Index goes DOWN then TZA goes UP. This is a way to short the market by buying ETFs long).

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES hit 992

it's interesting that ES hit 991.77 and bounced...wonder if

992 area will hold or not....

last night i posted 992 as the first downside target from yesterday's decline, expecting a bounce up and then a decline lower than 992. See post below this one for details.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX bounce?

Today was certainly bearish, and points to lower levels in the coming days/weeks.

Normally we would expect a decline to 992 SPX, and then bounce to 1006, 1012, or 1017, but because the drop today was severe and fast, it's hard to tell if more downside will occur before any bounce. Last in SPX is 998. The SPX will not necessarily go straight down to 992, it can consolidate and then go to 992. Or, it can bounce up to the 1006/12/17 right from 998, but the 992 move down first would be considered "normal".

Unless the bulls exhibit unusual strength and can propel and sustain SPX over 1016, then further lows are expected below 992 after any bounce up.

How I came up with 992:

1039-1015 = 24 points

1015 - 24 = 991 expected decline, and then the bounce up to the fibs 1006 or 12 or 17

Very interesting: In the chart below, the support channel line is exactly parallel to the resistance line; I did not "make it fit". That is, I drew the R trendline from the highs, and then just drew an exact parallel line, which just "happened" to fit the lows almost exactly. This gives more credibility to the trendlines.

The chart below shows one possible path to 992 before the bounce, but we really need to just wait and see what transpires in the overnight ES, which can change things.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Downside ES SPX SPY from Head and Shoulders, as warned

Yesterday, I mentioned a possible complex Head and Shoulders bearish formation that was visible in the 60 minute SPY SPX but harder to see in the ES futures because of the overnite ES trading.

Today, the big red bar occurred right when SPX was breached at 1016. The SPX then declined to a low of 996.28

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES megaphone with Fib fans

Here's an update. Post below on "rectangle" is invalid. Is now a megaphone to me.

I'll use the blue fans for now. When the highest blue fan is violated then switch to the green fans.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES Futures 6:30 AM

ES futures

Overnight until now, the 60min put in a big red bar from 1022 to
1011, and bounced a lil off 1011.

Bullish recovery would be 1011 to to break 1015, 1019, 1022, 1025, 1031

Bearish scenario: keep the ES under 1015, 1019 to go down to 1007, 1001, 997

for the next 2 hours, the 1019 would be the key pivot point

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".