Sunday eve/ Monday pre-market ES futures

Monday 7:27 AM EST
The futures moved up to 1028.50. The 15minute chart suggests that ES will move lower from here after breaking 1027, but we will see. 


Sunday 9:58 PM EST
if the 3min is a wedge, then it just broke lower and will backtest up a lil. Also there is a bearish MACD vs price divergence in ES....prices up, MACD hist down

Sunday 9:24 PM EST

right now ES trying to test 1026 again...if it turns down at 1027 this is a possible 3 drives to high failure, unless breaks 1027 highr. Note that the ES nitely pattern could be a bearish risiing wedge not a triangle 3min. Looks more like a bear wedge to me. But it's so early in nite that ES could just range trade 1021--1026. A break of either of those could cause followthrough in the direction of the break.

Sunday 8:14PM EST

Right now there's a pattern in 15 min ES that projects to 998 next if 1026 holds. If 1026 breaks higher then there is more R at 1027, 1031. But, there is also a bullish divergence in RSI/price in 60 minute chart that suggests a break over 1026. It is still very early in the session.


tomorrow's forecast depends on overnight futures action. the SPX 15 and 60min charts do suggest more downside before a bounce up, but ES shenanigans overnight could change all that most ppl do expect  UP tomorrow, but IF the spx  "continues" what it started on Friday afternoon, then  spx will move lower

For SPX tomorrow, it will be interesting to see if SPX stays under 1031. Under 1031 would be very bearish, over 1031 suggests poss 1038/1041.

b4 a bounce up



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

QID swing 24.34

I added QID today at 24.34, with appropriate stops and risk control.

It is possible that we get a bounce up on Monday in QQQQ / SPX (down for QID), but the charts suggest more upside in QID, to me. This is based on the 50 minutes and 15 minutes chart which looks like they have unfinished business on the upside for QID (down for QQQQ).  The 60 min chart MACD histogram does warn that a decline is possible because it's slope is down. RSI and Stoch suggest a push higher in QID, then a decline, then another push higher. Likely I will exit the QID before the decline and buy it back again for the next move higher and I will continue holding the SDS that i bought previously, for weeks if needed, until the current downtrend correction ends.


60 minute chart

15 min chart

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures updates....

Friday 6:48 AM

ES futures traded mildly in range all night.

The 15minute chart suggests a decline to 1017. Although it does not seem likely to occur before 9:30AM, that's what the chart says.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Bearish Daily Divergence even if prices bounce up today

The chart below shows that SPX will have a negative bearish divergence with price vs. RSI, even if prices bounce up today. This would be the second such divergence. A divergence in the daily chart is more significant than one in a 60 minute chart.

The divergences suggest that even if SPX bounces today, lower prices are ahead nonetheless.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Possible SPX roadmap 1023, 1018, 1012, 1002, 995, 978, 904, 876

My tech analysis shows 1023, 1018, 1012, 1002, 995 as the targets down in SPX especially if

1041/44 holds as Resistance.  And later, if SPX gets to 992 or 978, a bear Head and Shoulders

can develop. If that Head Shoulders breaks, then SPX targets next would be 904 or 876.

Of course, this happens only if resistance holds and the bears can break support levels. The bulls can push up to 1120 as an alternative.

Right now, the charts suggest the bearish case with a move to 1023 for starters.



I don't have a chart to post for this now, might add it later.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SPX shorts working well, market acts as expected

Well the market did exactly what I thought it would today, per yesterday's post. That's why I elected for a second early short position that I took yesterday.

Today's spx close sealed it. We have an official short term trend change to downtrend. It meets the criteria: spx broke the uptrend support, it made a lower high, and today it made a lower low.

Horizontal support and resistance levels for SPX shown in chart below.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday pre-market ES futures

Last night, ES hit a high of 1056 and then declined to a low of 1046 around 6:00 AM. They have mildly bounced off the 1046 low and are now at 1047.

1046 is an important number, because it is the low of yesterdays last hourly candle. The low of day yest was 1041 ES.

Important pivots for next 2 hours: 1046, 1051, 1056.

Scenarios:
Bearish:  If 1046 breaks then test 1041, and then targets in post below.

Bullish:   Bounce from 1046 to 1051, then hurdle 1051 to test 1055, 1058, 1060, 1063, 1066 then targets in post below.  If 1062 is hurdled then 1066 is likely, and if 1066 hurdled then higher targets also likely.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".