Monday, April 19, 2010

Monday ramblings

0356
buuying more faz 1188, close enough

0354
faz approaching my other buy zone 1188 from 3 hours ago

0350
vix at support here 1763,,,watching what it does

0315
faz getting stronger here....

249
1209 faz, first position of poss 2 or 4

236
faz limit 1187 buy, if able,,, might pay more later, last 12.10

227
i'm switching to faz not sds for next short entry if i make one

210
bull inv hs in 3min VIX, bearish for spx

202
we could see a vertical 5-7 point drop from the parabolic setups if they play out

200
15min parabolic sell signals in the spx, with limited downside first try tho

159
should retest LOD in spx

157
3min boll bands being stretched in spx,,,bearish,,, this is same setup that went for a successful trade earlier today


155
i have an "exit long day" setup signal warning now, 80% confirmed

154
133t also has the bear M

153
asc triangle destroyed in spx

153
1min bear M in the spx,, bullish W from earlier in 3min destroyed

152
financials being sold finally here

151
at Support here in the 3min spx, needs to break lower, should breka lower

140
watching for possible bull W in 3min spx, still short

1:35
in sds 2995

1:32
i will limit buy sds 29.93 if able

0114
cancelling buy sso for now, was not filled

0109
sso limit 43.17 if able, last 43.22

1238
filled on 30.03 sds

1236
*30.03

1235
sds 30.01 stop 29.,95 is low risk here, adding more if able at 3001

1209
close...missed by 3 cents being stopped out,,, still in

1207
*2995 stop

1206
stop 75% remaining shares in sds at 29.96 to lock profits, will keep the last 25% at breakeven stop lower around .64

1159
selling a piece here,,,1.5% profit

1158
ES target 1181, last 1182.50

1156
vix target 1968, last 1917

1156
vix is moving higher here again,, ahead of the spx going lower....

1155
taking 1% profits here in sds on 25% of shares

1154
15min sell setups still in place, 60min sell setups forming but immature still

1152
we should stall here,,,if not, spx very weak at 1187

1151
sds target of 30.00 hit here,,,not selling yet,,,

1148
spx at support now,,,this one is kinda impt....1188

1143
charts suggest spx break lower now, then form bull diverg n bounce up, spx 1189.50 last

1140
likely to test friday low now in spx

1129
i'm staying short via sds still at 2985, cost 2964, stop 2964, taking profits here on half of shares if it starts to move down,, 0.75%

1121
looking for es to hold 1188 R

1105
breaking higer, next target is HOD .91

1104
if sds doesnt break higher here 2977 i will prob exit 50% shares

1103
es spx held support but 3min charts bearish, sell setups on 15min,,,so staying long to see what happens, can always exit near breakeven or small loss/pr

1057
as expected, sds breaking higher...see if it holds....

1055
usually when it pushes the boll band like that it will retreat, then break higher

1054
the sds is stretching the 3min boll bands here at R,,,,could break higher,,, lower spx warning on my sys

1038
mini sell programs here es 1188

1037
watching to see if 2974 stalls sds,,whether it can break over it,, if not i will likely take lil profit and reenter

1029
sds llooks ready to break higher so paid lil more

1027
in sds 29.60, paid premium

1023
i'll buy sds 2956 if able, short term

1020
stopped out of half sso ,,, took profits,,,will reenter later

1017
stop 4388

1015
if sso doesnt break higher here soon at 4393 i will sell up here and reenter

1014
stop 4378 on 50% of sso shares

1011
sso stop moved to 4368 for guar small profit plus free ride up

1003
close to first target 4396, about 4 cents away,,, watching for reaction before deciding whether to sell here

1001
i still have 15min and 60min buy signals for now, will look to short later maybe

953
4396 first sso target, last 4370, cost 4351

948
i am in sso 43.51

9:26 AM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 16, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0355
monday could be a small range day as market decides what it wants,,, or another large red candle, will be intersting,,, a large green candle is not likely,,, doji, big red candle, or bull harami are likely on monday

0345
back in sds

0345
out of sds,,,11 cent loss

0340
close to stopping out...will do manually

0337
selling half of sds at .71 if able, to lock at least small profit

0327
the next test of es 1188,,,it should crack it lower

0323
15:34 PM is my expected movement, using current velocity


0305
2957 stop....10 cents risk

0259
vix is not waking up here,,,,small candles...

0249
adding more sds here 2958

0246
given that bias is down, might not need a divergence to turn back down on 3min

0212
there is a 3min bear diverg setting up now, and the daily bias is already down, so took profits in the long sso and remain short the sds for now

0210
exiting sso for profits here,,,4389

0208
i'm still in sds now,,,cuz i have the sso hedge,,,sso was not stopped out b4

0157
poss bull inv HS in spx 3min

0154
2963 sds stop for now

0151
time series F slope is near flat,,,so trick whipsaw here possible

0148
3min macd bear diver macd hist forming here

0143
i dont yet have an exit short pos signal setup,,,just a warning,,waiting... usually with the warnings, when the exit signal triggers, can use limit order to exit with small profit or breakeven, if exit triggers

0142
getting choppy here now .......might exit the sds n re-enter,,, no clear long or short now for me,,,,but i'll wait a few minutes to act

0139
if sds can get over 3002, next target is 3032, last 29.80

0137
on the 133t chart sds,,,, it broke under its uptrend line, and is now trying to backtest back up (inverse for spx)

0134
sso stop set near breakeven,,, that was a dud trade, only 0.3% profit,,, the shorts have returned nicely tho

0133
there's a bullish hammer in spx 60minute,,,but my work suggests bears will repair that

0129
hold time minutes hours,,,maybe swing

0128
paying premium,,,in sds 2975 starter position 1 of poss 2, position 50% half size for now

0123
i'll buy sds again at 29.67 limity

0108
sds hit 30.00, right near the 30.02ish target,,, just 2 cents away

1259
i still have a long spx setup, hold time minutes hours

1258
sold 25% sso 43.61 to lock some profits

1247
limit sell some sso 4363 to take a small profit, 25% of shares

1230
i'm in sso now but plan to re-enter sds later,,,still have 25% sds

1218
trying sso 4350 here

1213
not filled yet,,,,4354 last sso

1210
i will buy long sso 4342 limiti if filled

1206
stopped out,,, profits locked,,,still have 25% left... will prob try a long soon but not yet

1204
stop raised now to 2981 from 2973

1202
there's the test of LOD i expected b4,,watching here now

1202
but thats 25 cents from my real target 3003ish

1201
2973 stop to lock profits, on hlaf of remaing shares,,,,

1157
still in the remaining spxu....stop missed by 3 cents

1154
*2966

1154
2967 stop in sds,,,,equiv in spxu

1153
2865ish spxu trgt still,,, 30.03ish sds target

1148
still looks like test LOD in order soon,,possible break lower

1137
need to take profits as they come in this mkt... i've taken some but holding 75% still,,, will sell another 25% around here if doesnt break low

1134
i'm waiting for retest of LOD, possible break lower,,,think we get a lower low today

1132
close to 2863 target first on spxu now...watching for possible sale of some more shares but not all

1130
good it turned down there 1191 as expected

1128
if move is strong,,,should go back down now here at 1191 ES

1124
charts suggest LOD not in yet,,, one more push down at least

1117
wow blew past 1840 while typing

1116
vix blew right past


the 1820 target, at 1836 now,,, ,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...
 
1114
2865ish trgt on spxu,,,more precise target later,,last 2797

1113
the spx is setting up that 3 day bear candle pattern mentioned 2 days ago... this is day 3 today,,, so far setup is there,,, needs confirmation on day 4,5,6

1111
vix targets 1821,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...


1110
if vix breaks 1787 then 1821 vix next,,, testing 1787 now,,,pullback would be normal but could go for 1821 first

1103
10 min spx getting lil stronger but no "cover shorts" signal yet,,, my timeframe is hours/days tho,,, 60min says "stay short"

1100
 tho dow is "only" down 50 points, not much really, could easily see triple digit dow loss today

1058
vix at 1784 R now,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...

1055
spx could go lower than 1200 so keeping for now,,, ES targets 1192 and 1190

1054
i dont have an exit short-term shorts setup yet,,,,keeping 75% of shares of the spxu for now still, at 27.70,, selling some here to take profits

8:56 AM
The mini bear HS in ES continues and is still valid from 1:12 AM.... as long as 1207.50 Resistance holds. A break of the 1200 support is needed. Next R over 1207.50 is 1210.50. Last ES 1204.50, down 4 points.

1:12 AM
mini bear HS poss in ES 60min chart, target 1192 on a break of 1200

01:11 AM
ES down 6.25 pts at 1202 now


Asian Shares Slip; Google, AMD Weigh On Japanese Tech Stocks


Hong Kong declines as China property stocks slide




* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0342
stop 2696 on half of spxu to lock at least some profit

0322
charts suggest lower in coming minutes

0320
spxu here at 2683 looks good,

0309
that was quick, out



of fas, loss of 0.28%
 
0305
fas stop 117.17,,, will be about 0.25% loss if stopped out

0253
doing FAS at 117.51

0240
again today: vix green, dow spx green... vix "sell spx dow" signal if it closes like that

0149
entered spxu 2683 here

1104
back...my data feeds were down grr,,,, TDA... stopped out of spxu 2683, will re-enter long or short maybe later

1014
some mild buying in finan now

1009
*1207.50

1009
mild selling in the financial stocks here, as es at 1107.50

1002
vix just dropped

955
it would be interesting if es fails to make 1207.50,,,last 1206

943
i'll add spxu at ES 107.50 if it gets there

938
entered spxu 2705

935
VIX is up right now, 3min chart

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

0423
fwiw,,,, there was just a spy sale...119.85 spy, 1 million shars, at 16:21 PM, red,,, this is generally bearish for next day or so, to hit the 119.85 during 930-4pm

0408'
i'm not sure,,,need to check records,,, but i think today was the "worst" day for my auto-trading system since Jan 1


0406
exited AA at loss.... 3 cents

0341
today this is the farthest from the 5 MA daily that ES has been since March 8

0216
spx 3 min broke its UTL lower, then back up to backtest it,,, triple bear diverg on 3min spx

0211
spx at 1206 is OVER its DAILY bollinger band of 1204

0204
big red vix candle now, cancelled out previous green one

0203
i have a swing short spx via long spxu setup here, as long as it is over 26.93

0159
1617 is intraday R for vix....

0158
big green candle in vix just now,3min from 1586 to 1618

0146
ES just put in the largest red candle since 10am,,,on 15min chart,,,but its only a 2 point candle

0144
AA at support here,,,watching if it holds 1434,, a break under 1432 could trigger stops down

1250
shorting AA 1439

1239
to clarify,,, .. i meant the vix candle is green, sorry,,, the vix itself down 2% today

1237
even with that last spx pop up, vix is still green for day

1208
3min bull fla in the vix is bearish for spx at 1204

1203
shorting more spy here,,, spxu vol is too low,, at spxu 2742

1201
spxu here 2742 trade is still valid, to me

1156
should get sell signal by 12:01

1154
4 minutes later, the drop has started,,, spx 1201 and 1197 my initial targets

1149
charts suggest pullback in coming minutes, spx last 1205

1145
vix just shot up, relatively, 3min

1143
addind spxu here 2737.. avg now 2742

1130
spxu 3735 looks good,,,, i already have some


from 3747,,,if not i would buy here
 
 
1129
this last move up here is suspicious looking,,, still think pulls back some,, spx 1205

1106
should see a pullbakc here,,, spx 1203.77

1102
close to sell signal on 3min spx,,,at 1203.92

1052
entering spxu 2747

1039
60 min bear diverg setting up in spx, not finished yet.... 10 min diverg bearish near completion

1030
exited sds 2925, loss of 2 cents

1016
exiting fas 114.53, breakeven on fas (2 cent profit)
entering fas 11.38

1011
inv HS forming on 60min vix, bullish vix, bearish spx, in coming hours

1004
big red bar in vix...its shifting around here now ... i likely will exit FAS before SDS

1002
in sds 29.27 short term trade

959
big green vix bar, 3 min

9:31
in fas at 113.51, short term trade

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0356
limit 1858 cover BAC

0355
doing some spxu for swing at 27.81

0334
suggests possible move down in spx

0334
on that last move up,,, vix declined much less than spx advanced

0303
vix 60min chart is bullish, suggests lower spx in coming hours (tomorrow)

0258
i remain short BAC 1865

0257
exiting cat, breakeven (about 10 cent profit on $66),,, too many positions to watch here into the close so taking the CAT off

0217
Filled on BAC short 1865

0208
shorting BAC again limit 1865 if filled.

0201
LONG in CAT 6626

0152
exiting dxd 2562,,, for 1 cent loss,,, maybe re-enter later,,,doesnt look right

0141
AA testing LOD here,, 1407

0135
short AA 1414

0132
right now, i like the dow short more than spx short, hence the dxd instead of more spxu

0120
doing dxd 2563 here,,,shorting DOW

1246
an alternative would be to set stop loss at 2813,,,last 2815

1244
selling half of remaining shares 2816 vs 2808,,,small profit but allows me to lower stop on remaining shares..... now have 25% shares left

1236
stop lowered to 28.00 for now, mental stop, on half of remaining shares (25%) spxu

1227
stoploss on remaining 50% shares of spxu set at breakeven, can always reenter,, at 2808

1152
BAC getting wacked


hard
 
1122
es should pull back here from 1189

1102
spxu here at 2832 looks good for scalp

1050
spxu 2824 limit could work if filled

1039
SPX now has possible 3 day candle pattern of bear eve star, needs confirmation on day 4 tomorrow,,,

1038
vix at R now,,,poss stall,,, might sell some more spxu here 2847, unsure

1036
looks like spx has more unfinished biz on downside in coming hours,,, last 1190

1032
selling spxu 2837 here from 2808 cost,,, 25% more shares, have 50% shares left

1030
heres that move down,,,watching how far it goes

1023
taking profits on 25% of shares into strength here, spxu 2826 vs 2808 cost

1022
theres the new low in spx, as expected

0109
3min spx coiling

1003
small sell programs, spx 1194

1000
spx should make a lower intraday low,

947
i will try limit spxu 2808 if filled

938
VIX at gap R now, trying to break higher over it

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 12, 2010

Monday ramblings

0359
they will close dow 11000+

0349
selling half spxu here 2804,,locking profits

0333
spx moved down with more velocity than VIX moved up, on that last move down...

0248
back in spxu 2786

0157
exiting at 1876, breakeven. did not break out over HOD, can always buy it back later

0112
BAC moving up nicely, stopped out of 2nd spxu for small loss, small gain on first spxu, so around breakeven today on spxu ... i will look for re-entry in spxu later

0102
stop 2780 on the spxu

1248
buying more BAC 1874 limit if filled

1245
trading the BAC for possible blow off top today,,, to hit a higher high over 1886

1230
filled on bac 1876

1228
LONG BAC 1876 if filled limit

1219
Possible VIX roadmap in coming hours / days: 15.35 up to 15.60 up to 16.65 then down to 1597 then up to 1780 / 1812

1209
vix testing its first R here now

1153
vix target intraday is 1580 then 1602, last 1554

1152
vix 15min bullish consolod here at 15.54

1149
small sell programs here

1122
but for now, spx keeps making higher lows intraday,,,,looking to see if that changes

1120
vix is helping push spx down here some, as expected. last spx 1196

1118
small sell programs here now

1116
VIX suggests intraday pullback in spx, last 1197.62

1115
also poss bull asc triangle spx 3min

1114
spx has an inverse 3 min bull flag, wrong way so could be bearish sign, for coming minutes / hours

1108
intraday vix 3min is basing now, slightly bullish

1054
15min and 60min bear diverg forming but unconfirmed on spx , hence my short via spxu

1051
stopped out of spxu before,,,near breakeven, small profit,,,, will re-enter spxu 2780 limit if able, last 2789

1025
stop 2791 for spxu, a little over cost

952
went in at 2789

949
i will try SPXU 27.88 limit if filled, last 2791

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 9, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0214
bac moving up here

0205
DISNEY is up 1.6% today... all those unemployed going there for now,, till their checks run out

0201
1840ish next bac trgt,,,last 1850, new LOD

0157
more BAC selling prog 1853

0132
bac sell program here at 1857, small one for now

0116
vix moving higher, bullish chart 15miin vix, 60min vix

0110
shorting BAC 1857 again, stop 1862

0106
exiting bac long 1858 vs 1861 entry,,,small loss there,,,, still have 19 cent profit from this morn short

1217
still in bac long at last 1860, my work suggests a pop up still, even with the recent small move down. Then i plan to re-short again later at higher levels, after selling the longs

1135
buying bac LONG for the bounce up here,, 1860

1133
covered rest of BAC, will re-short later, took profits,,,

1113
VIX 3 min bull asc triangle

1108
Locking 1% profits on BAC,,,still have half

1104
covering some at 1854

1100
BAC at support here at 1851,,,if it doesnt break now then i'll cover some more shorts to take profits,,,will keep half of shares tho

1058
BAC trying to break LOD again here at 1852

1039
vix moving up here, ahead of spx falling

1034
BAC falling more,,,


1853 LOD now
 
1033
BAC falling more,,, 1853 LOD now

1024
BAC continues falling, at LOD now, 1864

950
1863 next bac trgt

949
taking profits on 25% of bac shares here,,, 15 min trade,,, 0.7% profit

946
bac target 1867 first

942
shorting the bac again this morn, at 1880

934
BAC is being sold this morning

9:07 AM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".