Friday, December 10, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

415
7688 red IWM bear wick,,, 1million shares

355
Russel short IWM is v close to entry price, i will hold swing

340
ES sell alert


80% here,, needs 85% to move
 
336
IWM not at its high of day here with ES new high

333
hit 1236 es,,,trgt 1237 for short spike  from 2 hrs ago

329
nervous IWM short could exit here 77.78 for 10 cent loss,, i'm holding thru close, or overnite if no downside b4 close

308
hmm now 1mill share GREEN in IWM lol

306
smaller red orders too now on IWM red,, around 100k shares

304
this time, may not see up move,,,MarketMakers could have accum them thru day and sold from existing holdings,,vs MM going long to fill the red order

302
1million shares of IWM russel red 7791,,, so up to 7830 then lower makes sense, or lower without bounce,, either


way,,,should see lower in coming

hours days
 
 
 
300
now tbt has big green candle,,chop 3min

254
5 small candles up on tbt 3min chart,,wiped out on one 3min red bar down

249
see those tiny candles on IWM russell 15min? bearish, esp on low vol, for


swings,,,may not see correction today
 
 
247
Big Boys can play futures ES  TF  NQ at nite,,,but not individ stocks

245
7830 resist on IWM, last 7790,,, i dont think it gets over that

234
KFT DIS   KO,,,drifting lower

227
the es volume is low today, SPY vol is very low too,, bearish

223
i will lim short es 1237 if able,,,aggress trade

221
watching for poss 1237 ES ,,,if 1237 will see if quick rejection or followthru,,,may try the 2 pt headfake

208
still would be early entry ,,,aggress tho here,, conserv would wait for down first,,then short the bounce

207
ES short here could work, 1234

147
shorted russell,, iwm,,,7766,,, tza 1628,, combo swing scalp

141
getting a "starting to weaken" daytrade short on russell,, no entry yet just a "maybe forming"

130
4652 eem last,,,4720 would be nice short tho prob wont make that hi

129
soon i will swing short EEM,,,edz,,, forget


dow spx qqqq lol''
 
 
 
123
tbt close under 3740 would be nice,,,needs to get out of this coil  (short tbt_

121
took mcd profits cuz maybe they use MCD at such extreme lows to prop up DOW here

114
taking MCD profits here now,,, can always reenter,,,has made a huge move down from 8094 to 7732

104
been swing short those dow compon,,,surprised to see KFT  KO and MCD in that list,,usually they hold up well

103
DOW custom short etf : all stocks are well under their daily n 2010 highs vs spx near highs now:   DD  DIS  KFT  KO   MCD

100
lim cover MCD 7527 in place in case of big red candle selloff,,dont expect it today but in place just in case,, 7746 last

1256
i'm watching MCD to see if it can get some more down today,,if it can make one last move down then i'll take profits and look to reenter swing,, right now it has small doji candle

1230
KO is actually going DOWN during this rally here :)

1227
the  russell IWM has some bear diverg forming on daily 60min BUT not baked yet,,,they could stretch on n on lol

1211
RUT is near resist here,,,wtaching reaction, could breakout higher but holding for now

1206
KO hit 6436 or 3 cents under the 6439 trgt,,,got a nice fill there to take profit,,,now just riding swing short, and 25% scalp left at breakeven stop,,,smaller pos would have taken 50-100% profits by now

1205
hmm TBT TLT update: now the TLT has decided to coil in possible bear pennant 60m daily,,,or could break higher,,, i'm watching closely since i'm long tlt, short tbt,swing

1137
if i had small pos  i would cover KO scalps now, .47,,,for half or all of shares and look to reenter

1130
lim cover some KO 6439, small pos i would cover half  or all here for scalp but not cover swing

1125
cuz if ES moves down then KO can make a lower intraday low of day

1125
if ES 3min gets stronger then i'll take some more KO scalp profits

1035
i wont cover KO .44,,,will wait for reaction for poss lower and hold all day (will hold more overnite too)

1028
  6444 is double KO support: daily trrendline AND prior horiz supp

1025
usually, the pattern in KO would merit holding it short all day , as long as it stays under 6475

1014
1228/26 es supports, stall likely, tho im not going long there

1012
feeble KO bounce as expected, already back at low of day and threatening to break lower

1011
still short oil,,,is basing for another thrust down i think, coming hours days

1006
usually the prior horiz support will hold, but KO in this case is justified to break on first try with only small bounce

1005
KO just hit scalp trgt 1 6456, will hold 75% for lower, small pos i would hold it all,,or, alt small pos take profits here then quick to reenter

1004
KO selling hard now, tbt down too nice

955
am short ko but watching the poss bull inv HS 60m

945
still short all the stocks in "custom DOW bear etf":  DD  DIS  KFT  KO MCD

943
MCD continues weak, still holding that swing short nicely here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, December 9, 2010

Thurs ramblings

356
nice


move in KO bak down
 
352
not adding more KO shorts,,,was saving the add more on a break over 6500,,keeping the .70 from earlier

351
ES 1228


shorting, swing scalp combo,, if we sell into close will take partial profits and keep some,,else will keep all for tomorrow
 
 
340
theres .83 exactly in KO,,,watching reactions

337
for KO


under .83 is bearish,,,over that

could get the 6500



332
MM appear to be starting to gently short here,,,if so then lower into the close

319
MM may be selling large caps to buy small caps cuz they move faster into year end, but what happens when they begin to sell small caps?   DOW gets hurt\
 
 
 
308
large blocks are ok after 340pm but not now

308
if ko sells WITHOUT large block trades then it can move down nicely into the close

307
nervouse KO shorts would exit .71 for 1 cent loss

302
ES sell alert 80% still on,,,is rite near its max trgt up from few min ago

300
heres the attempted KO pump we expected but only at .80 for now,,,not going long, still short and maybe add more

252
bounce over 1226.50 would invalid the sell signal 80%.. 122550 likely max if this works

251
for shortable bounce, not long scalp lol

250
es sell alert, 80% but needs 85% to move, es 122450, often bounces higher b4 sell

246
for KO,,,the MM usually will try to push it from 6470 to 6500ish in this circumstance,,,havent been able to thus far today,,

242
MCD has one of biggest red candles for whole year,,,maybe largest except for May flash crash

238
MCD now 7757,,,wow ,, approaching swing trgt #1 not scalp trgt

231
DOW is now on swing short 355pm signal, tho 13 components of dow are still on 355pm signal swing buy, could easily change depending on the close since its only 232pm now

229
i'm keeping 33% shares of KO as swing short and will take profit on other 66% today, for a 50% swing size, if that makes any sense

216
1071--1095 nice move up in SCO oil

213
es 1214---1217 es trgt

211
wave 3


intraday now es???
 
208
1min later,,,MCD just broke :D

207
MCD,,,precarious,,,needs to hold the  low here over 7800,,,last 7809,,, break lower would be nice for shorts

200
TBT back at low of day :), can pressure selling on spx

138
MCD :) approaching target down

130
ES 60min may now be in wave 2 of  larger 3 down with 3 of 3 to follow

124
KO has been flat on ES move up here,,,still see the lower KO esp with the MrktMaker reprot

110
TLT may put  selling pressure on spx now and in coming hours days

109
this is a strong poss now that TLT has bottomed, tbt topped, on daily

105
TLT just shot up $1 in 5minutes, TBT down

101
KO has been strong today,,if it falls it will likely drag the dow down with it

1253
KO is capable of making a big move to break todays lows, tho doesnt usually happn first try,, for now i'll take profits manually and watch reactinos at support,,, no liimit order in place

1250
1224.50 algo R,,, 1226 R too on ES

1245
MrkMaker analysis for KO only:  just got a red sale 6469 for 350,000 shares:  so a push higher could happen but then should see under  6450,, push could go to 6500,, i will remain short thru any such whipsaw and maybe add more

1230
MCD new lows of day :)

1220
lim 6458 cover KO scalp if filled

1152
TLT is all over the map today

1150
DIS wee,,,new low of day :)

1149
ES 1218 trgt, last 1222

1145
just hit .65 trgt from 1126am,,still see lower

1143
KO trgt down is todays low, then gap fill,,no limit orders to cover scalps yet,, it is starting to weaken as expected at 1126am

1126
KO should pull back from .75 maybe 10 - 30 cents within next hour,, still sideways charts spx

1059
but horiz support is lower, so waiting on DIS,,still swing short

1059
DIS daily UTL supp line is 3647ish,,,it hit 3658 so that may have been test n hold,,,but still see lower DIS for now,,watching here for poss DIS profit take exit then reenter

1046
shorting KO again 6470 combo scalp swing

1021
oil looks like will go down to test yest low :)

1017
todays pomo is 7-9billion vs yest 1-2B,, next schedule release at  2 p.m. on December 10, 2010.

1013
60min es candle filter says for now, day bias is down

1006
atm,,looking for entries to short DIS maybe TLT long, short oil

1005
range will be established then can find some nice scalps  to hold  30min--6 hours

1004
me waiting to make mrkt direction judgement until 1030am, letting it whipsaw around

953
Early morn MarketMaker report: MM appear to be forced short, as a result of buyers, so chop is expected as MM try to force lower to cover vs buyers waiting to buy more

941
DD DIS TBT both weak, good for shorts,, DD DIS gapped down

934
that ES 3min candle opening red is enormous, unless the rollover effected it somehow

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, December 8, 2010

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

407
eem and russel both red today, tho russel near flat,,, while xlf was green,,, CHOP ahead

313
bak at .55,,,taking profits from .77 on iwm,,will reload if ablke

259
once again russel moving down ahead of es here now

236
look at TLT daily candles

129
compare rut to spx,,,or spy:iwf,,,,russel 3min remains weaker

125
back down in iwn as expected, .63 shorts could take the scalp prof here,,,still holding most of it

105
hit .63 or one cent over trgt and stalled,,,watchin now to see if goes down, iwm

103
hit the .62

103
.59 near .62 add short aggress

101
russel is NOT moving up here with es

100
1224/25 es resist

1258
i'm cautious long here,,,see maybe lower first 2-7 pts es, no long for me, still short

1256
aggressive could short more .62 russel, but will need to be able to exit fast

1255
we dont "normally" get a big down move at this time of day without bounce,,if we do could be v bearish, this is not big, yet

1253
fwiw,,,the volume on russl etf down there was bigger than ES rel vol

1252
.44 trgt next scslp iwm

1251
1% scalp prof it so far on the "dreaded" tza lol

1250
if it "dribbled" down to the trgt i would take more off here,,,but came on high vol so waiting

1249
trgt achieved,,,watching .55 reaction here,,, will cover 25% to lock lil profit

1248
theres the  .63 trgt,,maybe bnc then .55 should be hit :)

1247
Russell weakening here, es should follow

1242
.55 is rect trgt for IWN down on break of .70, last .72 with stall at the .63

1234
scalp trgt .62 new trgt not .67 on iwm,, since it hit .71 b4 close to .67 prior trgt i'm lowering it

1209
i might exit my kft swing later today 100% out, unsure,, other shorts r better, kft served its purpose mayb

1152
7680 IWM now trgt 7666 scalp down for short, trgt 1

1145
  tho i dont trade off ewave cuz always multipl counts, needs confirmation on other indicators for me

1143
inside larger wave 3 from 1235 commencement, wave 2 of 3

1142
es poss this is intraday wave 2 up after 1 down, here, then 3 down for lower lows

1136
thus far the ES found resist near the center of its 15min Boll Bands, to suggest test of lower band

1121
if this works then ES and RUT will both break daily lows, else take profits when charts setup changes

1118
i shorted russel and ES based on 60min trendline R, and 1  2   3 min stoch all over 80, for scalp

1117
1224 es short scalp could work too here

1115
shorting IWM russle here 7675, tza 1688

1048
IWM russell now at daily support tst, holding for now, tho i expect break lower in coming hours days

1040
OIL DD DIS MCD shorts r all down hard today,, good for shorts profit

1035
KFT i have reduced size on small prof yest,,mentinoed could be tricky short or long kft yest for swings yea

1023
1220,18,17 supports so could stall at any of those,,,too many to pick one for me, without sideways first , for long trade LOL

1021
and 10 min later,,wow sco jumped 2% in 5 minutes :),, sco is short oil etf

1018
DISney also down here along with DD,,good for those shorts

1009
oil short swings still look valid to hold for higher profit

954
spx spy suggests chop to me,,,dueling 15min bull and 60min bear charts

940
MCD now back in the profit zone :)

939
MCD is selling off, tza is down too tho for now

822
MCD is down over $1 premarket at 7915 vs 9034 close. good for shorts. MCD more active pre-market than normal.

TZA is down 10 cents this morning so that position at a loss for now, still see higher TZA.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, December 7, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

452
looking at tza,,, 1835 trgt for coming hours days, mini swing trgt,,,then 20.23 for longer term trgt for 18% profit

426
TWM flashed a new "enter TWM or short russel" today, 355pm signal

404
Russell 2000 suggests it may gap down in the AM, one reason i chose to add some tza

359
finally buying some tza swing, been awhile since i've used it, 17.05

322
Market Maker update: they r still short but covering some here, taking some profits, and not re-shorting at this level. rather holding their existing shorts from higher levels

319
oh just noticed ES hit 1225 trgt so half of those shorts got covered on the limit for 6.5 points profit on that half

318
back to .17 for cover of half KO if missed the first trip here,,,holding for lower .78

304
6378 KO lim cover if able other half, last 6417

300
due to lateness of day,,,didnt cover all the KO there

300
KO just hit the .17 trgt,,,which is its 60min support line

258
only covering HALF of this KO .17,,,, 6402 next trgt down

251
more selling ko

243
heavy KO selling,,see if follows thru,,also bear 14min candles last 3 forming

230
shorting the ES 1231.50 here

223
TLT overshort 9375 down trgt and hit 9347 low, last 9363,,,may start to base and give "add more longs" tlt setup

220
oil shorts continue v strong

212
MCD 10min is forming bear diverg,,,maybe pull bak scalps soon

208
es sell alert 81% at 1231

159
kft mon-tues rally60min was V shape, followed by thurs-fri rounded rally = Adam Eve

156
hmm need to be careful on kft shorts swing cuz maybe a bull adam eve 60min

141
KFT is


alsmost ready to add swing shorts

to exist pos, no entry yet tho,

maybe another 15-120 minutes
 
 
138
still see lower KO,,,just taking awhile for this second half scalp,, like the tbt short took awhile yest

116
filled on


more KO scalp .48
 
113
will add more KO short 6448 order good for 15min if filled

112
still have Market Makers r short reports

111
watching for tlt to setup inv HS 15min,,, 9375 supp

106
poss bear shoot star 3min KO

102
still trying for 6417 KO scalp cover at 60min trendline supp ,,,may not go that low tday

1255
not covering rest of KO yet,,,waiting

1228
6446 KO is R till broke,,,will cover shorts if .46 breaks, on a PULLBAK after brk

1221
6417 lim cover half of remaining KO if able

1211
bigger wee in spx short needs tlt over 95,,last 9470

1210
my MCD short is giving me fits, but still short there (at a loss atm)

1208
caught .46 just in time last .39

1206
ko .46 here could work for agg scalp or to add back on shares taken profit on

1201
sco (short oil) also almost a bull engulf candle

1159
OIL shorts r on fire now

1154
1225 trgt es on mini HS

1152
6434 KO trgt, partial profits here at .43 last .42

1140
also tlt maybe waking up, if so bearish for tbt spx

1131
mini dbl top on es 3min

1126
got the KO just in time short :D

1122
SHORTING the ko here 6450, combo swing scalp,, cancelling the add more KFT for now

1118
almost ready to short ES ,,,no entry yet

1107
DIS yest trgt was 3800,,,hit 3798 today or 2 cents under trgt for reshorts

1054
1235.50 es trgt if mini inv bull HS 3min triggers,,waiting for 14,3,3 stoch to get higher b4 shorting 3min

1032
imo, oil is a better short swing spx

1029
hmm may need to wait an hour or more to get chance to add more oil shorts uso, sco

1023
3064 last kft,,,still have 3073 short order

1012
also looking to add more oil shorts, sco long or uso short

1010
watching es 1227 reaction if tests it, last 1229,, may present a shortable bounce

949
tlt ready


to break higher hree and fill the

gap,,,waiting to


add more tho,,,already have shorts

tbt
 
946
Early market maker analysis suggests they r testing this mkt here rite now and have stepped aside to the extremes, letting retail and daytraders establish some range

944
also may add more KO shorts,,,KO remains profitable despite the spike up on spx today :)

942
KFT is at the 3055 trgt from yest to reshort,,,but waiting to see if can get 3073/3080

938
lim short kft 3073 if able last 3061

910
KFT is at the "reshort target price" from yest,,,but waiting on it to see action at the open,, likewise TLT long is near support so may buy back what was sold yesterday

810
8am spy wicks down to 122.85ish

809
yesterday i mentioned that we could get a bounce today that was swing shortable, that pattern may finish forming today, ES currently up 11.50 at 1233.50

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".