Wednesday, March 9, 2011

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

405
once again, es selling 15min after the close

400
how appropriate, an indecisive doji candle today, inside the SPX indescive coil pattern of last many days

356
boring close lacking convict either way

344
and a higher us dollar is not generally good for spx

343
VXX daily and 60min charts : to me, VXX looks more bulllish than SPX looks bullish, which would be bearish for spx in coming days weeks.

337'
for es, spx,,,i still have a swing short signal, to hold for days weeks

328
bear intraday gap down on 3min es,,,doesnt happen a lot intraday

308
poss bull inv hs , V now in 3min es,,,watching the support and resist for up or down moves

251
now watching to see if tests es 1316 or not, and then 1311

250
atm bearish es spy spx, but 3min needs more bars to confirm,,,a lower high thus far


235
when coupled with these 15 and 60m charts

235
this pattern on 3min ES,,,often it will tell the close, based on where it is 6-12 minuts from now

1234
today VXX is more bullish than SPY is bullish, suggests lower spy spx

1210
9 touches on the 60min resist coil

1209
SPY hit 60min coil resist and stalled, pb some

1200
3min ES rallies on lower volume than declines

1151
SLV silver looks bearish today,,,further declines expected in coming days weeks

1132
3min bear ES head shldr with 1304 trgt, near the 1306 prior low and horiz supp

1105
SPY hit 131.60 or one cent under trgt and bounced, low of day .60 so far but imo .60 is breakable lower

1057
since SPY bounce above the .61 without testing,,,.61 could break on the first try if it visits there

1055
SPY swing short signal is likely to remain on short for at least another 8 trading hours

947
DDS down nicely today

946
on 15min spy chart

945
SPY 131.25 is coil support, under 131.61 horiz,,,poss bull inv HS if .61 holds

942
swing sell signal from yest on spy spx still on sell

942
spy 131.61 support,, lower poss but stall likely there intraday

858am
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, March 8, 2011

Tuesday's ramblings

406
theres that test lower of the hangman  60min ES

346
Higher EUO (higher dollar lower euro) may put selling pressure on spx in coming days

326
3min ES bear stoch dbl top,,,see if it puts pressure selling into the close

321
also atm, daily SPY rsi is carving out a bearish lower high

305
50% size position in case it wants higher first

304
swing sell short signal on ES 1323 here just triggered, imo

300
es,,,watch out for the 60min bear hangman,could retest it lower

237
Shorting DDS 41.00 here

147
airlines LUV LCC are higher today, luv up almost 6%

116
60min es bear harami but it needs confirm as the same thing can also be a bull flag

1247
i continue holding UNG long swing,,,looks good still to me

1246
HSY: daily bear rising wedge

1217
i'll try 53.75 short HSY for swing here

1124
small bear es diverg es:vxx,,, es 3min testing highs vs vxx higher lows

1102
a 15min bar candle close under 1314 es would be bearish and give a second sell signal

1052
stopped out of cxo, 4% profits taken, will look to reenter

1044
stop 103.53 on half of cxo to lock profit in case of bounce, is at interim trgt not

1039
101.25 cxo trgt with 100.54 area for limit stretch trgt

1038
CXO has broken the 104.30 :),,,third try daily, but now must sustain lower,watching

1016
Theres 1318 ES trgt, watching reaction now, short could work here

1008
cxo 104.30ish would make a third test of a signif low if it gets there, often it wil break on the 3rd try lower (after normal bounce first),,,in coming hours days

1006
watching to see if es wants 1318 or not

957
for now. i will take profit on cxo lim 101.54 to cover shorts at mkt there if hit, from 107.80 short,, still may cover earlier, last 105.09

949
CXO has broken support #1, up about 2% roi atm,,,still another supp below likely to test, watching to see if that holds or not, may exit to take profit and reener later

937
im still short swing cxo,,watching to see if daily support breaks, bearish atm but support not broken yet

933
EUO looks to have broke out of its bull falling wedge with a nice gap up this morn (euo is short euro 2x, like long dollar 2x)

917am
GM


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, March 7, 2011

Monday ramblings

115
DBA 15min has bearish 3 methods 5 candle continuation lower pattern, needs confirm with close below recent 15min lows

112
From daily highs: silver down, agriculture down, spx down and TLT higher... are they selling all classes and buying bonds safety?

1206
VXX 60min has today made a higher low and a higher hi, bullish for vxx, bearish for spx,,,but can vxx sustain higher? imo chart suggests some whipsaw with upside vxx bias, over 2980 is bullish vxx, last 3301

1150
vxx calls from 207 now at 2.93 or up 41% profit atm from trade idea, tho i'm long the underlying not the options

41%
1104
ES is now testing that daily uptrendline yet again,,,still think it will break from swing perspective lower

1027
i'm in 3543 DBA short swing

1011
if EURO 15min stoch 14 3 3 gets over 80, and theres a lower 60min hi, it may present a nice short opp,,,will look at charts if that happens (or inverse for dollar long /DX)

944
sold 3737 on FE to lock about 2.25% profits,,will look to reenter later

942
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, March 4, 2011

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

251
FE long  has bounced nicely, this is an early entry based on bull diverg on 60min macd hist, among other things

205
interesting, A (agilent) is up 5.6% today,,, i dont have any, just observation that long hedges can work even when market is down

158
trying FE long at 3650 here,swing

124
imo, ES SPX under their 15min candle high is bearish,,over that could rally,, 60min spx suggests more downside or sideways, and poss short bounce if one comes

100
3207 stop mrkt order on half of vxx to protect profits

1242
i will lim sell some of vxx 32.19 if able, from 31.04 cost

1229
3280 vxx trg, last 32.23, from 30.58 low this morn,, its moving now,,,may stall soon

1223
ES is now at its daily uptrend support line,,,1312,,,depending on how u draw the line,,,watching this area closely,,chart still bearish to me for swings

1218]
VXX daily cabnlde bull engulfing atm

1216
VXX has done it, broken coil to upside as expected, but the break is marginal, watching to see if it sustains or not,,,and the 60min MACD hist on VXX has not even crossed 0 yet, tho near there now,, could go much higher toward upper targets

1208
IBM has pulled back and is now near support for its poss bull W 60min setup,,,tho chance of failure on the W is high must respect its there,,impt test coming

1202
3min VXX triple top,,,could break v soon higher vxx

1157
60min chart of VXX continues to remain within its coil triangle, and charts suggest a break higher in vxx today, its nearing the apex now,,,, would suggest lower ES SPX if vxx breaks higher

1133
watch ES 1310 area, its support via daily uptrend line

1109
a 60min VXX close over 3205 would put the close over the triangle (breakout) as well as over horiz resist, would be bullish for vxx bearish for spx

1108
intraday wicks galore on SPY today, up and down

1103
VXX 60min is in a coil triangle, expecting break to upside in next 1-8 hours, likely today

1029
RSX russian stock etf has a very classic bearish eve star on daily chart, reversal pattern lower

1020
VXX now at 3143 up nicely 1% roi, still see much higher to targets 3300, 3400, 3500, 3800

1008
TBT has moved lower, no re=entry yet in tlt or tbt that i see, exited yesterday TBT

926
GM


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, March 3, 2011

Thurs ramblings

408
bearish afterhours SPY wick:  131.21 spy red time and sales, 2 million shares,, may result in lower spx tomorrow and coming days

331
VXX Apr 16 2011 33.0 Calls are at 2.07 now, tho i prefer the underlying to the options

311
VXX is not making lower daily lows, as the SPX makes higher highs,,, VXX may shoot up nicely in comoing hours days

310
VXX 3100 here could work,,VXX is very volatile compared to other intstruments so buying less shares than normal also makes sense

301
ES up 1.95% vs CXO actually down 0.15% today, good for CXO shorts

229
SPY spx possibly in proces of trend change to downtrend, not confirmed yet.
For spy daily chart, Draw a line from Feb 10 low to Feb 24 low,, and a second trendline from Feb 18 high to Mar 1 High

222
es hit 1230 trgt,,,watching reaction now

118
3933 tbt exit makes sense here to lock profit, can always buy back, tho 3948 is resistance trgt higher

1218
*3913 sto[p

1217
3914 tbt stop here makes sense,,,enough of a move up to warrant profit taking,,3923 last, v tite  stop on the swing trade

1141
ES may go back to 1321 test now, 1325 last

1048
ES is now very close to its 60min DTL resist at 1326

1032
UNG buy alert,, ung should go higher now

1031
1317 es trgt if 21 breaks lower

1023
1321 ES supp from new break over it, should stall there, then will watch to see if break lower

1010
scalpers could take 2.75--3 pts profit here es,,,,daytrader would hold longer

951
1325 short es could work here, or 132475

948
idea: 132.94 shorting SPY here

924
SPY didnt hit 132.60, hit 132.54 a few cents away,,, never got a fill on that order, cancelling it and will do manually, was intended for quick spike at 830am

809 am
Premarket shorting SPY 132.60 could work, limit 132.60 if filled

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, March 2, 2011

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

249
SLV selling some here

223
TBT breaking higher here now, up 2%+ today (TLT treas bonds down)

218
trade idea: 67.59 short on WP could work, swing

136
CXO short swing 107.80 could work here

1243
exiting msft 2630 here and will look to reenter again,,,to lock profit,,,could hold longer but will actively trade it instead

1235
MSFT targets:  2637, 2643, 2649, 2663 (downtrend line resist), 26.83, 27.03, 27.18

1231
the "1239" posts below should read 1229pm, typo

1231
usually i would just sell at the prior high of day resist to reenter, but the daily candle is still small so targeting yest high

1239
will watdch reaction at .37 test, may sell there and reenter, or just hold, idk

1239
msft trgt is 2703 but of course may need to sell sooner at lower price since this is scalp

1238
msft last 2631, expecting test of high of day .37, and think it will break the higher for a higher hi, tho stall, pullback  at .37 would be normal

1202
in MSFT 26.20

1201
i think one more mini bounce before bigger downside, ES,,if so may be a shortable bounce

1150
MSFT long 2620 lim if filled i will try, 2628 last

1149
Looknig for poss entry LONG on MSFT to scalp bounce, still short on other positions swing, no msft entry yet


1111
qqqq 5770ish might present a short opp

1049
currently reviewing DOW 30 and Nasdaq top 33 stocks for long or short entries

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, March 1, 2011

tuesday's ramblings

352
1708 NWSA,,exited,,only 2.26% profit but can always re-etner,,,didnt move like IBM

342
*exiting not covering

342
covering 2074 TYP to lock 4.3%+ profit from yest

1697 lim cover NWSA


332
2096 TYP trgt

318
TBT would buy would be to add the second half, other half from 38.12

318
if filled, 36.77  lim buy TBT could work

240
EURO is waking up and may break support here for lower

234
158.53 IBM limit trgt to cover shorts if able, then bounce then lower

226
*1307.50 LOL

222
ES is about a half point above its daily uptrend support line atm, precarious having tested it twice in last few days

215
idea: cover nwsa 16.77 if able, from 17.49 entry,,then look to reenter short

210
TYP trading idea from yest up 4% roi now, tightening stops makes sense on half

209
NWSA has also cracked support and is outperforming IBM

207
159.17 IBM trgt or near there, last 160.21,,, a close under 159.00 would be v bearish and put IBM below its feb 24th low

210
TBT poss bull morning star reversal, daily, needs confirmaton (or bear eve star on TLT)

154
1290.75 next es trgt

146
ES just exactly hit 1310.25 target and bounced, still see lower on 60m charts

144
IBM is about 10% of the DOW $DJI index weighting i think

144
IBM has cracked support and sustained, for now, still see lower to next support level which is more impt one (prior daily low)

134
still have a hold on typ atm

134
TYP is up 3.4% since yesterdays trading idea

128
an es close under 1288 would be bearish,, imo thats what bears need (not nec today),, watching reactions at 1310 and 1290 es if gets there

118
watching nwsa support test at 1729,,,,still see lower for swing nwsa

107
* "often" is a better word than "usually"

104
"usually" a significant bounce over 10 points would not happen for at least 3 more hours,,but those are just "usuallys" for observation, anything can happen

102
1310, ,,, 1291 trgts initially ES

101
60 min ES chart, this pattern will usually make a lower low

1243
IBM is developing a pattern thats similar to the bear 3 methods (5 candles daily) continuation lower pattern, watching reactions,,,this is the same pattern we talke about when NFLX plunged before,, for swings it suggests lower IBM in coming days weeks, along with other indicators, if confirmed

1230
Russian stock mkt RSX also weak today, bear engulf daily candle atm

1204
IBM has marginally broken its support from yest,,,watching reaction now for further down , or a bounce higher

1203
because the ES daily trendline was tested so recently (3 days ago) it could easily break on the next test, tho stall expected,,,,trendlines also break sometimes as prices shift sideways

1151
IBM is back down on another test near the 161.27 support from yest,,still looks like it will break lower eventually to me

1140
also a poss bear HS developing on daily ES, too early to tell now

1139
1310ish is the daily ES uptrend support line from sept which must be respected until broken lower, i do expect a break of it after poss stall, and then a re-draw would be needed on ES daily for a 3rd lower support line. The current support line is #2 redraw, usually after the 3rd redraw breaks then a trend change, so possibly still some more work to do as ES chops around volatile in daily 

1133
ES 1310.25 trgt lower, last 1319.50

1122
lim 5783 scalp qqqq could work, short

1052
ung calls 7 cents could work,,,
UNG Apr 16 2011 6.0 Call


or the $5 calls would be a less agressive trade instead of $6


1014
RSX is already approaching yesterdays low, have a hold short swing,,
TYP is also up as qqqq r down, have a hold typ also

839 AM
Adding more silver SLV shorts here 3356 could work

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".