Wednesday thoughts

[15:53:53]   MIND is another one of those volatile stocks. look at the daily chart. today's candle looks small, but the high to low spread is 2% range today LOL

[15:39:39] daily RSI on USO has a nice bull diverg

[15:26:40] a USO move over 31.00 woulod suggest strongly that the bottom is in for USO oil, and higher
[15:27:17] thats about equiv of over 26.20ish UCO
[15:21:00] also look at VOLUME on USO
[15:21:05] see how big it is?
[15:21:26] "down here" thats not bearish imo,,,sellers will get exhausted,,,,its at the bottom not the top, thus i remain long oil via UCO

[13:02:36] NUGT hit its trgt in this whipsaw, took the quick 2 hour profit, will look to re-enter again later
[13:02:49] limit order filled

[12:19:15] i removed stop from UCO for now, waiting and holding initial position, not adding, red 5%ish atm

[11:20:07] obviously 1300--1310ish area is an interim trgt for NUGT from 1270 (simple 3min resist prior high)

[10:52:20] 1347 trgt 1 for nugt, higher trgts later, will sell all in small port there if able and buy again later, large port will sell only some of it
[10:35:13] long again in NUGT GDX initial entry may add more later
[10:27:49] DIS hit 48.00 today, nice move from 44.26

[09:45:37] TLT short / TMV long is a good example of both the disadvantages and advantages of "scaling in": disadvantage, only had a small position, so percent profit looks nice is misleading because of fewer shares, less dollars,,since an opp never presente to "add to" the position,,,, advantage: got a small profit

[09:32:10] TMV hit 56.00 trgt from 53.3 yest or day b4, order filled at the market 5600--5602
[09:26:57] TLT currently trading about 70 cents below yest close, set to gap down

[09:25:36] small port TMV (3x tlt short) same trgt as yest, i have order to sell at 56.00 (below trgt 56.24) for small port all shares, large port order to sell half of remaining shares

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday thoughts

[15:58:31] holding new oil longs, UCO USO swing

[15:56:45] may raise to 56.30 trgt later, TMV

[15:55:14] same trgt on TMV small port, holding it for now until trgt hit, 56.00 sell at market

[13:46:55] if it were noon-time i'd take off the TMV on small port and then try to re-enter it again, but at this time of day it can move, so holding the TMV for now instead

[13:45:23] watching for oil to make new daily highs, testing now, USO UCO
[13:45:27] oih
[13:45:29] cl
[13:44:22] 125.41 trgt hit on TLT. or close enough
[13:36:32] simple horiz support trgts on TLT, nothing complicated

[13:35:48] 124.60 and 125.40 lower trgts on TLT next, then 121
[13:34:11] theres the TLT break lower, holding small port 100%, but 25% more off on large port at 2%ish trgt TMV, still have half in large port, and 100% in small port
[13:25:51] looks breakable lower imo, TLT
[13:25:15] watching to see if TLT makes a lower daily low by 3pm
[11:54:39] uco stop 25.40 for now, will change it later
[11:49:50] long oil via UCO 2x

[11:14:31] IF TLT can break support at 125.80 then it may test lower to 125.20, small move but waiting for now, holding the TMV 3x,, have not had a chance to add more shares to initial entry in small port TMV, since TMV only went briefly lower after entry yesterday, so waiting for a decent move lower in TLT to exit (higher tmv),,, or opp to add to swing if TLT bounces first,, large port still have 75% shares left
[10:22:37] MIND is up 3% today, but still about 9% away from its trgt 1

[09:53:53] TMV hit 1% proft trgt posted 930am for large port, took some off, still holding in small port all shares TMV (or TLT short 3x)

[09:33:09] TLT has gapped down 0.66%ish this morning, holding the swings on small port for lower trgts (TLT short, 3x TMV long),,large port will take some off at 1%ish profit area

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

[14:27:18] NUGT testing near its high of day, may go higher, may pb, so decided to exit for now

[14:26:28] took 11% gain on rest of NUGT in small port, large port still holding 25% of shares, will look to buy GDX and NUGT again in next 1-3 days

[14:13:56] note: the TLT short is early entry, half size position, may add more later
[14:14:13] TLT may go higher b4 lower but been watching the 127 area for a few days now as re-entry area

[14:13:05] shorted TLT swing via long TMV 3x etf

[14:09:05] also exited SSYS,

[14:05:16] wow huge drop in TLT, intraday 3min chart, watching reactions

[14:01:44] took aapl profits early here, will look to reenter later
[14:03:04] still see higher, but reducing risk, since have other long positions that are outperforming AAPL, so exited to lower risk, less $$$ exposure,, still holding GDX  MIND  NUGT  SSYS  VTNC for now

[13:38:54] imo waiting to see if ES wants 1347 test makes sense b4 any shortnig, still see higher swings

[13:36:12] after being flat at 9:32 AM vs SPY down 0.5% then, SSYS has popped nicely, still holding longer, SSYS up 3.5%ish today vs friday

[13:13:59] NUGT is volatile intrument, todays range alone is about 9% from todays high to low of day

[13:11:35] GDX at 4750 trgt now, watching to see if this breaks higher, over 4750 gives the next trgt, still holding half NUGT, at 9% gain but still holding since onlyh half is left (exited other half near this area b4)

[11:23:52] GDX and nugt moving up sharly here but GDX needs to clear 4750 before real upside accel, NUGT needs over 13.30ish
[10:49:03] aapl up 1.5% today vs SPY near flat,same targets
[10:21:53] next trgt on aapl, will sell at 587 if it gets there, half of remaing (which will leave 25% left)
[10:11:52] still see MIND making a similar move in time
[10:10:27] wow ACIW has moved up 5% today alone, and over 14% from its prior daily June lows,, some of these stocks can really move, volatile
[09:45:00] hit 578 aapl, order filled, holding second half for higher
[09:40:00] still same trgt on aapl, will take off half at 578 if it gets there, higher trgts later

[09:34:26] aapl now flat fwiw

[09:32:04] interesting that SSYS has opened flat vs SPY down 0.5%, will see what it does,,
[09:21:06] reaction to greece similar to spain: overnight surge in futures, and lower at 9:30 AM, although this time SPX may rally back quicker than spain reaction (hours days)
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[15:59:58] 9 points profit on second half of ES scalp, 5 points on first half


[15:52:05] MIND up 4.4% today, could still go 20-40% higher for swing holds

[15:41:52] still think aapl sees 578+, holding it for now, swing
[15:39:19] compare XLU daily chart to spy, next pullback in XLU etf i may go long (not today)

[14:44:09] another 2-3points-ish would have spy testing its prior daily highs

[14:41:06] ES scalp hit first trgt 5 points, makes sense to take off half if scalping from earlier, keep other half

[13:20:21] AAPL not participating in this bounce, conversely MIND up 2% today, SSYS up 3.3%, GDX flat

[12:58:47] TLT just made a lower low on the 3min chart, spx did not, so far the pattern mentioned below is starting to morph as expected, tho of course it could always change
[12:58:58] but atm, TLT is continuing lower, spx has started reversal higher
[12:59:23] look at candles from 1236pm on the 3min charts of spy and tlt side by side

[12:51:09] of course, that relationship does not always work, but imo those are the stats. there are a lot of "misalignments" today in the stats

[12:49:45] it is a little unusual to see TLT and SPY moving in the same direction on the 3minute and 15minute charts. Usually TLT wins this battle over SPX, meaning that the TLT trend will continue and the SPX trend may reverse. for today, that would suggest lower TLT and higher SPX into the 4pm hour

[12:06:02] es still at 72% long scalp signal, to hold scalps , no change in it yet

[11:12:21] if ES doesnt get over 1333 in next 27minutes, the signal will prob drop back to 70 or 68%, or may change to short

[11:10:15] 72% es signal rang, up from 70% long scalp intraday

[10:31:18] so far todays range is small, small daily candle on spy

[10:23:39] may take gdx another 1-3 days to move, we should know by then its status,,imo dips are buyable in that timeframe gdx nugt

[10:14:30] ES missed the 4 point trgt scalp, only got to 3 pts, conserv would exit, agressive would interpret the miss to mean it will overshoot the orig trgt if it gets back up there

[10:12:14] aapl needs a 15min candle close over 574 to get any upside traction tho, 572ish last

[10:08:40] TLT now in the re-shortable area 127ish, tho i'm waiting to add again
[10:08:50] could use TBT or TMV long to short tlt

[10:06:16] aapl 60min chart suggests bounce imo, 578--582

[10:02:55] es scalp trgt 1 is 4 points, maybe more if resist breaks

[09:58:38] 70% es long scalp signal just rang, es 1328

[09:51:34] still have this GDX n NUGT,,,if gdx breaks over 4755 then 4870 and 4950 trgts, and the 4870 could break higher on the first try without much pb
[09:53:40] that would put GDX at about 1% and 5% higher, NUGT 3% and 15% higher, for NUGT trgt 21%ish gain if hit


[09:48:12] over 1343ish spx imo is where the shorts would get squeezed harder
[09:48:24] same area as yest spx pivot
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

[15:15:52] this is just the start, still see higher SPX IWM for swings, actually all of this wildness is not even "wild" from a swing perspective,,,alll just chop inside the range


[15:12:16] LOL well thats one way to get 1326 trgt ES from yest

[14:13:42] triangle in SPY

[14:12:53] 60 min ES dbl bot , bull W formed

[13:16:49] ACIW went "lower than expected" on daily to 37, and has moved up to 39.68, so out for now near breakeven after that 7% move higher

[13:05:21] ACIW now trying to test its high from 4 days ago, having broken over yest high,

[12:40:04] ACIW has broken over yesterdays high

[12:38:09] bulls may not be finished today, ES could break over 1322

[12:15:01] if tna gets to 4775ish, it is likely to break higher (not rite away, after possible pb first)

[12:12:30] 3min bull flag es
[11:52:52] AAPL swing long still red 1.5%,, NUGT has dropped from 8% to 5% gain, but still holding both swings, still see higher for each,, also ACIW MIND SSYS VTNC

[10:20:14] for about 3 weeks now, the 1316 es area has been a circular recurring pivot

[10:08:19] in 1 to 3 days, Cotton long may present a long opp using BAL etf,,,on a pullback in cotton futures /CT
[10:09:16] DBA agric etf may be ready for swings long now, or in coming hours,,,i have neither cotton or agric yet,,,throwing out ideas

1670 to 1970 would give about 18% move in MIND

[09:59:00] MIND stock is waking up, its another volatile stock good for swings, it may move 20-40% higher for multi days weeks hold

[09:50:56] MM continue to sell, push the price down, and then buy it back lower
[09:51:20] accum vs "distrib"
[09:49:43] i know yesterday intraday "looked bad", and this morning maybe too,,,but market maker reports still say they are accumulating long positinos, fwiw,,, one factor to consider among many others

[09:44:12] imo, for swings, gold will see higher, but may take 2 days b4 higher, next 2 days could go either way
[09:44:59] GDX NUGT miners, same as gold tho they do not always mirror, small port i'm holding the NUGT through all this for a multiday / weeks swing, large port can actively trade in and out of NUGT GDX DUST and use the volatility of them.   GDX range for today only is already at 2%ish range hi to low today, 6%ish already in nugt,, the NUGT and DUST are very volatile


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

[16:22:41] IWM SPY have bull diverg on price:rsi on May 18 and June 4,, also on May 18 the MACD hist was under 0, not hist over 0 tho signal line still under 0
[16:22:44] for swing traders

[11:25:42] this is the approx timeframe when aapl would try for new daily highs, if its following the pattern, and velocity remains constant

[11:10:02] testing 1316 es,,suppport is lower but if this holds it may pop another 8 points higher

[11:05:51] watching 1316 es mico support, real supp is lower but over 1316 holding bullish imo
[11:06:05] if it holds for next 15min

[10:58:54] surprisingly ES and AAPL both on 70% stay long scalp intraday, even tho its at resist now
10:57
9 minutes has passed, AAPL held over 576 supp trgt, watching to see if it makes a higher intraday high in next 27 min or not

[10:48:23] if AAPL holds over 576 for next 9 minutes, would suggest MM beginning to pay a "premium" for the stock in expectation of higheer, under that could still see a try for 572 lower

[10:44:29] Market Maker reports: they have stopped some selling to accum, watching reactions to see if it moves highere here, its at resist on ES , AAPL and other

[10:38:08] may exit NUGT small port if it hits 11%ish gain trgt, depending on reaction, if it gets there, last 8.74% gain,, will look to reenter again later if exiting, as it still has more upside in GDX and NUGT

[10:20:54] GDX is at swing trgt 1 rite now, along with gdx, trying to hold the small port for swing trgt 2 higher if possible
[10:21:09] but its at resist, which remains resist until broken
[10:11:11] SSYS long swing still valid here imo, at 4550ish
[10:01:49] Market Maker reports on AAPL suggest they are selling it near 578 but only in order to buy in the 575 area, and suggest they will try to push it to 570-72 if able,,,only when they are done selling/buying will it go up,,,but atm the MM are in accumulation long in aapl imo per reports, it can take some time to manifest itself higher

[09:56:20] daily, 60m, and 15m charts on AAPL suggest higher within next 1--3 days

[09:54:30] aapl still valid here imo long at 575 last ,,,short term swing or scalps,,,,long term lower aapl (multiweek months) but not the spot to short it now imo

[09:48:51] marginal break higher on over aapl 60min chart resist, but it needs to sustain over 578 to get any real upside traction, the break is only marginal atm

[09:37:24] AAPL is holding up ok atm, flat from yest close, tho at 2% loss atm,,,holding it longer still long,,,

[09:30:50] NUGT gapped up, at 7% gain, taking off half in large port,,holding it longer in small port
[09:31:13] SPY did NOT gap up
[09:31:21] gap analysis inaccurate yest nite


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

[15:59:38] not tradeable imo, but gap analysis suggests gap up tomorrow morning

[15:57:59] conversely, june 4 and june 5 had bull spy daily candles, those ones were valid from the perspective of having a pre-existing downtrend to reverse

[15:53:58] some candle watchers may see a bull harami on spy daily, imo that pattern does not apply because not enough prior red daily candles, same reason as the bear pattern was invalid on June 7
[15:54:27] imo, spx has more upside,,,just mentioning that the "bull harami" isnt valid

[13:51:28] exited cotton longs via BAL, will look to re-enter later, took loss on the swing trade small port

Still see higher cotton but it may pullback first, so out for now
[13:41:50] small port i'm holding it thru this,,,large port actively buying and selling,4750ish GDX or 1290-300ish nugt
[13:42:09] later over 15 on nugt
[13:43:56] gdx has resist 4700--4720, if that breaks then 4770, 4850 next trgts, think it can break higer over time

[11:35:52] NUGT up 5.5% from yest entry, aapl down 2.1% from entry yest, holding both still, no exits atm
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".