Friday, April 19, 2013

fri thoughts

352
what will we have on daily chart if ES goes back to 1570? poss bear Head And Shoulders....tho i'm not sure there are any reliable statistics on these patterns, just observation and personally prefer not to make trading decisions based on them

350
UVXY hit that 726 buy level posted early this morn when at 8.25 , investment banks bought there, last 7.21....but i cancelled the order and will wait on uvxy

345
hmm one more push into the close here on SPX ES SPY UPRO would give an exit signal on 4pm system...its likely to go higher if the exit does NOT come today..watching...the system only looks at the 3:58 price and other conditions for the decision, no other time

332
4pm swing sys long upro is green but has NOT given an "exit spx long to lock profits" signal...if Monday is an up day, it may give one on monday...or could last for many more days...all depends. for now i remain in upro but only with the initial position shares since add opp did not present

331
opps at 1060 to buy may present... if not...holding the remaining 25% of shares on quick swing,,,and full position multi week swing, nugt

330
took scalp profits 10.90...will keep 25% overnight
the nugt didnt hold over 1090 so i decided on exit early on that piece

322
theres the 1090 on nugt pb...now looking for an exit...will post as fast as able...none yet

315
*** i CANCELLED the order to buy UVXY 7.26

311
if nugt hits 1090 i'll be looking for earlier exit than 1127..mental stop not hard auto stop

308
nugt remains stalled here at 1100,,,expected but still looks breakable for 1127

306
lim order to sell half of remaining nugt at 11.27...leaving 25% for overnight hold and much higher trgts if the 11.27 gets filled today

302
1127 trgt if gdx gets up to 1106

300
LOL hit 1099 while typing..watching

259
it looks on chart like nugt should be able to go over 1103 towards 1140 BUT the MM have not lowered the ask...unless they raise the ask, there will be a lot of pressure at 1103 area...and may not get 1140  1200 today...watching actino in the last hour here

258
theres overshoot of 1083..toward 1103 nugt next trgt intraday

255
Earlier in day if it were testing resist on us dollar DX...would be less risky..but higher volume now could break it...or harsh rejectionn lower...either

254
Us dollar trying to break resist higher here...could push down gold...but resist still holding mostly...but cautious...still see higher gold just expecting chop also

249
took some profits here 1076 nugt on some shares...scalp

reduced shares on NUGT to amount willing to hold overnite...did not want all that overnight so sold some to reduce risk, lower profit

244
some selling here on the ES...watching what it does

211
grrr mised by 2 cents...so i RAISED to 1099 now...
often near miss...will overshoot after...and will adjust manually if no fill soon on half

209
theres 1078,,, trying 1083 still lim..:)

153
Inv Bank sell level gdx is above todays high, level is 29.14
Nugt levels lower for whatever reason

152
the 1062 was a Market Maker not Inv Bank level..usually capable of moving thru those, if the candles are not small (in this case not small)

149
intersting Inv Bank sell level 1 on NUGT at 1083...in between horiz resistances at 1096 and 1072...may hit 1077 stall then 1083,,,will watch it from scalp perspective. order remains 1083

sneaky if it follows that pattern

142
*** "someone" bought gold futures this morning...see that 1:00 am and 2am candles, and the volume on it, gold futures GC 60 min chart?

138
hmm intersting Investmen Bank levels on NUGT to sell...are lower than gdx...does this suggest some sideways and chop rollercoaster tape, since the decay on nugt???

the gdx levels are the master levels tho and the real trgts

136
if it can get to 1065 nugt, then should give the 1083 trgt. last 1061

131
lim order to sell half nugt 10.84 if able, scalp acct not swing..swing trgts much higher over 14

125
1062 trgt nugt

124
Inv Banks trading the gold market more actively than normal,,,kinda makes sense given the rare huge move lower in gold...hasnt moved like that in 3 years?

123
another buy level 10.11 nugt on Inv Bank...they dont usually have this many in one day (inv bank)...tho common for MM to have several

120
bought nugt here 1030 buy level. added

1241
move lower in dollar may propel silver gold gdx higher

1240
UUP us dollar 60min chart has a big bear diverg on 60min charts. higher price/double high vs lower macd hist

1217
there is potential for move in gold today or tomorrow...if one looks at overnight gold futures 1424 high,,,gold silver gdx nugt may all benefit

also note the volume on futures at 1am

1216
added more nugt, to allow scalping before end of day, more shares, 1062

1208
nugt hit all buy zones today...one last Inv Bank buy level at 1032,,,,may be todays low if nugt wants to go down there,,,tho theres resist at 1084 right not

1147
i have order to buy 7.26 uvxy,,,good today only, and may cancel b4 end of day...may bounce there first try....Investment Bank Buy level 7.24

i wanted to short VXX but didnt...oh well..didnt give right entry...well it DID give entry but i didnt see it right LOL''

1109
thus far ES and UPRO are NOT GIVING an add more longs swing opp since entry...normally it will give a chance after the 4pm signal triggers....so having to just use the initial entry for now...

thats good for existing position but would be nice to add more....

1053
Possibly exit OUT of the IBM short position, posted entry awhile ago....on todays 7.5% drop...if stoppped out...not stopped yet, but protecting 11% gain...stop set at 9% gain or about 2% higher from here

1050
nugt still buyabel...at 1084 still...may move up now on the 3min after a 10 cent drop after entry

1047
ES should pullback here on 3min, last 1543

1037
willing to endure 1052 lower on nugt, next buy level down, but adding for poss higher instead

1036
ADDED more nugt here, 1083,,,may buy 4 more times, 1081 last

1021
quick 1% bounce in a couple minutes off the 1085 buy level

1018
1056 and 1011 is next MM buy level on nugt

1017
1085 NUGT could work here if one didnt have existing position...i'm waiting to add..in from yest lower prices but this is micro buy level

1014
also NUGT is setting up an entry scalp long, not there yet on 3min chart,needs more time. may add to nugt also, the nugt would be an avg up not down, so it will reduce the percent gain but increase the dollar gain...if opp presents, else holding existing

1011
the 15min and 60min charts are battling since they are at opposite trends, in the cash SPY not ES....so chop is likely here in "no mans land" due to such common battles when 15 and 60 are unaligned

1008
NEXT pullback on ES 3min chart...will prob go long upro, poss short VXX,,and likely be over the 1531 es...valid for scalps, quick swings, and multidays weeks swings,,,,position size depends on timeframe one wants to hold

my plan is to actively trade it, scalp/quick swing times, so medium size positions, with understanding it might drop lower after entry. but i trust the "4PM swing system long alert" that triggered and pref posted

957
poss buying opp at es 1531 if it gets there, scale in size position, 25-50% size to allow additions later, wider stop. last 1537

also possible VIX short there at es

951
MM just raised the ask in GDX, may allow for test of high of day, and a new day high, coming 1-90 minutes

946
also watching DX futures, us dollar...or uup...DX curr testing support and may break lower

934
nugt gdx now at yest posted trgt 1 on gdx...holding a bit longer here for poss break of such trgt
swing NUGT....holding for much higher thna this,,,thats just yesterdays quick swing

931
Going to try to hold yesterdays new NUGT for gold futures around 1420-1425 if possible, for first trgt exit. nugt curr up 7% this morn


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 18, 2013

thurs thoughts

347
if one used UVXY instead of SPXU, gain would be 33-40%...naturally the stuff moves much more than spxu, esp on downside...

341
btw,,,the same 4pm sys is signalling "take profits on shorts from 26.24 few days back"...giving exit signal.. about 9% gain on SPXU if one took that swing 4pm trade in 6 days hold time

339
conversely, these charts do look "ominious" on spy and "look like a big pullback possible"... the 4pm system is purely algorithmic based with no human input.

334
4pm swing trading system will trigger a "buy SPY or SSO or UPRO long at the close today 4pm, if it is below 1544 ES". 80% wins long and short combined, and longs generally do better than shorts, since year 2000. hold time 3--46 days approx.

if UVXY were higher, i'd short that,,,but too volatile and not high enough imo...
no guarantees on upro. signal can often be early. just presenting historical performance which is no guar of future results

327
ES may go lower than 1535 (or 1540 sp500)in coming days, but 80% chance it will bounce and give a daily close over that, timeframe 3--46 days.''

80% based on stock market activity from 2000 till present

320
still think GDX is going to 34 minimum, and then prob to 37 and higher, in time, for swings. multi weeks months but can trade actively in meantime. GDX situation is similar to AAPL before, though of course they aer not related...but chart situation similar and allows for these huge moves

132
NUGT hit all posted scalp trgts, holding for higher trgts above these ones, the remaining nugt.
3% scalp gain atm, from buy earlier today

1251
uvxy 838 stop

1247
half nugt off for quick 1% at 10788 near 1080 trgt, holding rest scalp  for higher trgt. will buy back on pb

1237
obviously not shooting for 1065 trgt lol...but needs to get over that resist level for higher,,think it will get over it hence hte buy, last 1059

1235
1065, 1079 1092 are nugt initial trgts,higher for swing of course

1233
raised stop on UVXY to 8.40...its moved nice tho NUGT crashed in last week

12:31
scalping nugt 1062


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 15, 2013

mon thoughts


3:33
wow what a time to be travelling LOL
nugt rough move down and didnt move up before UVXY as expected.
UVXY did just hit its posted target 1 from 2 days ago tho


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 12, 2013

Friday thoughts


844am
. travelling for next several days, only trading sporadically. =Chris


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 11, 2013

thurs thoughts

215
testing now the 1587 supp trgt..impt test intraday ES...scalps would take off half here or tighten stops

158
wow...ultra low volume on daily GDX today,at least so far
no major selling on gdx despite red candle

156
661, 670 UVXY resist. major resist 693 intraday scalp

154
1587 es support, it looks breakable lower but remains support until broken

152
72% short signal rang on ES at 1590, uvxy long 647
last es 1589.50 and may not bounce first this time

140
UVXY not making new lows. SPY testing its  highs

1210
659 and 674 resist on UVXY,,market makers

1204
in addition to us dollar, another catalyst for higher gdx nugt would be lower spx

1127
Inv Bank on IWM they have raised levels to 96.50 now, but the old levels usually hold on the first try
Inv Bank Buy level IWM is 91.00

1125
IWM 95 and 96 are the Inv Bank sell levels for past 5 days
usually stalls at those levels, Inv Bank not MM

1107
not sure it will happen today, but nugt and slv could see big moves up. us dollar DX   UUP still has lower to go

but good chance it will move today, nugt

1020
for now, order in to sell 75% of NUGT at 23.20. may lower later. last 21.13

952
sold some UVXY at a loss and swapped for NUGT, in vse port

946
Inv Bank sell level on GDX: 3580, buy level 33.90

943
big 3min reversal in ERY too

943
NUGT starting its move in reaction to dollar now on 3min chart...watching to see if sustains

942
dollar is down. may see reactions in higher silver slv uslv gdx nugt today


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 10, 2013

wedn thoughts

402
CVX daily vol is potentially misleading if only looking at daily...

most of that vol on cvx came on the red 15min candle. but the daily green candle makes it look like buying volume

356
interesting volume on ERY here

350
out of uvxy breakeven scalp, holding swing

147
going out...see yall later...may exit the uvxy from my phone and wont be able to post here..same trgts...scalp not swing piece

135
ES trying the second pb on 3min chart now,,,watching to see lower low,,,takes 2-4 times on days like this

134
historically in a battle between TLT and SPY...tlt wins,,,swings mid term

133
april 5 high vol day on TLT was gap up and small candel, not a big red vol sell candle that day on gap up...followed by lower vol selling in 3 days since

smart money parked in treasuries for now, not DOW large caps?

131
TLT daily chart treasuries:
THAT is more of a "real" breakout imo than spx spy...with backtest now in TLT, to be followed by higher tlt again

129
first pb a whole 2 points on es 3min chart bought...next pb may give a lil lower now

121
scalp order to sell set at 683 uvxy in case of fast move, may sell 670...scalp piece NOT swing..swing trgt higher

108
72% short finally rang on ES here at 1583,,,downside may be limited as first pb usually bought on 3min charts,but rang

still have uvxy scalp from this level, swing from higher level

1247
same trgts in uvxy...starting with 670

1245
: 661 UVXY could work here...scalping it in my pers acct not in vse

1239
they r buying here...watching to see how much....again often they buy a lil n drop it more

1238
uvxy just hit MM buy level 661,,,

1221
hmm since last post...Inv Bank have set sell level #2 at 7.11, first still 683...the 711 is between the prior posted "expected thinking" of 699 and 733 LOL...still need to watch 699 tho imo

1219
lowered the ask too ...to 668...possibly in order to hold price down so they can buy some
their actions in this case suggest a bias to buy uvxy,not short it

1217
661 uvxy...MM interested in buying a little there .... raised the bid
however often when bid is raised, and its in downtrend, the MM just 'buy a little" then step aside to buy more lower,,,not always an immediate bounce but it can "stop the bleeding'

1214
60min chart on us dollar...imo would have been better for dollar bulls if went sideways or down more, instead of this small up move...it suggests that a lower low instead will be made on the dollar now...if that lower low comes then silver gdx and nugt often move higher

1211
UVXY 3 min chart...confirming the MM levels activity...only prob is the chart comes after fact but at least confirms the algo


1207
IF the uvxy stays over 683 for more than 15min (if it can get up there LOL)....that could prove significant for higher... and a close over that also may be signif...these Inv Bank level usually hold on the first try almost always,,,penetrating and holding over them is bullish

i have a feeling that it will be penetrated, and a new Inv Bank level will be set at 699 then 733...but feelings arent tradeable

1202
first pullback on spy 3min chart will prob be bought today,,,starting one possibly now
 then poss short the bounce...for patient intraday lol
agressive could short it right here, at 1580,,,i'm on side tho

one could also scalp the pb long but i'm not...too much work lol

1200
 Inv Banks are MUCH more active btw in the vix ...vxx and uvxy xiv. the Inv Banks usually sit further away from MM

1149
see that 3min shoot star on UVXY? typical to see that when MM selling,,,as mentinoed b4 expected to sell here,,thats one confirmation that they did if not access to fancy algos

1005
GDX: inv bank lowered sell level to 36.50 from 3700, thus new trgt is 3650 and stall then higher,swing

1002
NUGT GDX have pulled back and are good buys for half size positions at this price imo,,,i'm not adding because i bought yest at close (at higher price :(


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 9, 2013

Tues thoughts

400
bought nugt again
i would like nugt to pb....is ok if it does...just wanted some again due to strength
will add if nugt pb else ride with existing position

349
IWM lagging means "risk trade off"..."defensve longs only"
also temp parking spot for funds

349
IF   IF  roadmap continues,,,spx should get tired coming hours days and pull back not nec crash

348
so far all of this action on spx is following 60m chart roadmap,,,makes sense and still bearish imo and expected this as possibility

330
4pm swing system does NOT use "layering" or "add to existing positions". It just takes the initial entry and goes 100% for simplicity. But if it DID layer, it would be giving an "add spx shorts at 4pm today" here at ES 1566. posted perform record for it b4,,has 80% wins from 2000 and 2007...this "could be" one of the 20% losers but system remains on SHORT SPX ....

322
no guarantee but has worked many times, on uvxy gdx nugt AKS etc etc
KISS strategy

321
UVXY. another one of those "too far from 5 period daily moving average. Almost always bounces, even in downtrend. trgt 7.30

see higher uvxy than 730 but thats the "downtrend" bounce trgt given its below the 5 MA

259
might add some FAZ at the close, if XLF looks right

234
notice IWM is not re-testing its prior daily highs,,,continues weaker

232
ES now testing prior high. spx going for all time high

104
revised...707 and 711 likely

103
uvxy should do mini test of 707 last 700
mini test...1% lol

1256
1562.50 ES... 72% short rang on ES, intraday scalp sig

1251
but if one looks at DX us dollar futures, can see that pattern there

1250
if that pattern were at bottom, it would be bear continuation pattern called 5 methods, but its not that since not at bottom...but still bearish
...3 methods is continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern

1248
see SPY 60m chart? big red candle followed by 3 small green ones? its a bearish pattern...doesnt mean new highs wont be made over red candle high, but bearish candles

thus far, the expected "sideways upish" from earlier is happening on spy ...will get tired in coming hours

1224
ery 3470 trgt for now and order to sell there

1215
IWM investment Bank buy sell levels 9000/9500
i just noticed that Inv Bank levels on IWM are same as april 3..v interesting...exact same levels that date

1210
look at GDX...rejected almost exactly at Inv Bank level posted yest and this morn 930am

1205
so looking to buy pb in gdx nugt, for subsequent move up to 3699 gdx

1204
tomorrows GDX trgt: 36.99 sell, 34.97 buy (Curr Investment Bank levels)

1203
imo: ERY has more room in it than DUST....the 60min on ery is more tired on down than dust is

1201
theres gdx at trgt...watching reactions now...it will usually stall in the prior Investment Bank sell area...

1200
y: *ouch* figures ery drops rite after i buy lol

1159
last 3616 gdx...getting close to that 3630ish area...v

1153
bought ery

1126
MM still have not dropped bids in gdx..same as b4 or near there

1123
took gains on aks.
will re-eval entry later

1119
AKS going to hit resist at 329 and 333...last 324

1115
dollar at support,,,if bounces thenlower gdx...but if it breaks...then 3630 gdx

1115
: aggressive could short GDX here or dust...i'm waiting tho
3606
based on us dollar
scalp quick hands trade

1107
watch for 8230 dollar futures dx,,,and may be wise to get out of silver gdx nugt when dx gets there, if actively trading it swing

1052
724 and 735 uvxy mini trgts
may sell some not all if able at 735...pretty heavy resist there on first try...but the stuff can move fsat so will give chance to pierce

1048
3552 watching gdx...could go much lower but wanna see if it goes there, and reactino...sideways may be buyable

1045
y: 2360 exit on NUGT ....11% plus gain

1041
GDX  susceptible to pullback to 3552 so finger near the sell button now....

1039
easy to see simple horiz resist here prior high fdx 36.00ish

1037
stalling here at Inv Level  1 also normal..watching

1037
look for a stall if it gets to 36.30ish today...that's an "old" Investment Bank sell level....they tend to stick on the first try

could see a pretty big pb there, but a bullish one to a higher low

1036
gdx "should" go sideways now on 15min chart...the normal thing would be a rising wedge (higher but getting tired),,,or a bull flag (lower but still bullish since its a flag and poss buy opp if flag presents)....may be exiting second half of nugt if it goes to a wedge

1035
next 4 candles on GDX 15min chart impt...

1029
IF gdx can hit 3620 today it would be a huge move. one of biggest daily candles on chart. i will exit nugt if it can get up there...still awhile away...it does look like its going for that level and higher eventually for swings, just may pb first...watching...

1025
SPY SPX cash charts: have another 4 hours of side/up bias on them,,,,may not move up much, will see...after that, should be getting tired and pb....the larger pb likely not come until after at least 4 hours, unless velocity changes,,,at such time the uvxy gift trade entry should kick in

1018
2293 NUGT,,,,3563 exactly now on GDX :)
: took half off..made the trgt close enough  •• 

1005
"trading tip of the day": Successfull strategies are NOT universal across sectors and vehicles
: a strat that works well for swings on SPX will NOT WORK on swings long in gold silver for example

 this is proven through extensive backtesting...spx shows great returns, while commodoties silver show big losses

so always have in mind the vehicle and sector u r trading NOT JUST the strat

also,,,,within the same sector or vehicle (eg. SPY), the successfull short strategy is NOT simply the inverse of the successfull long strat

so if using upro for long spx and spxu for short spy,,,one would NOT use the same formula on upro and spxu...doesnt work.. the short strategy generally requires a slower entry, and generates less signals short, due to the nature of the equities markets

just some ideas....for those that like to develop their own strategies

early in my algorithm development career....i thought a strategy was invalid because it worked great for long but gave losses on shorts. i expected same strat to work both ways, at the time i thought it was logical...took awhile to learn that success is ok one way, and develop an alt strat for shorts LOL

i believe this is a main factor in why so many retail traders lose money

in general, the above applies more to swings than scalps, but does apply accross all time periods


1002
3500  3512  and 3530 are the MM buy levels, gdx

958
: gdx at the heavy resist area now...3542...watching to see if it can push thru...
MM are buying it here now...but smaller MM are trading it...it is possible accum long by MM here, for the next push up...they hold the ask down in order to let them buy. hope that makes sense.

957
silver is going to form a bear diverg on its 60min charts....will exit silver later...but it still has another 2-12 trading hours left in it...and we all know ...biggest moves come when? near the end....

954
theres pretty heavy resist at 3545 gdx if it getst there...but reaction is impt...does it just go sideways ...or pb?  watching...but many MM sitting there to sell...at least right now...however still see the 3563 trgt poss today since it made such a sustained move at open thus far....trgts look close together in gdx but in nugt they move 2-5% LOL

950
3544 3563 are gdx next trgts intraday..last 3532,,,with buy levels at 3512 and 35.30

941
im going to sell half my nugt at or near there if able...

940
gdx next Investment Bank Level is 35.63..so it will prob test the 35.50ish prior high

938
From 12:23 PM yesterday
gdx should test higher 3524 and stall poss
it hit close to it, 3522. at this time of day it could break it for next higher trot


936
yesterdays posted Investment Bank level on UVXY was.... 6.99...once again it hit the inv bank level a  day later...keeps happening


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".