Simplified ES view.. rectangle range?

UPDATE ON Tues 8:30 AM: The post below is retracted. It's not a rectangle, its broadening megaphone, becauseTues pre-market ES made another new low. Technical analysis DOES ALLOW for drawing trendlines through prices in certain circumstances, but this is now too much. For me, it's now a broadening megaphone, which can resolve in either direction.

I'm leaving the post but I consider the post below INVALID.

Original post:
One idea is to consider the daily and 60min charts as a rectangle range as
opposed to broadening or any other creative alternative, because sometimes the
simplest explanation just works best methinks.

In the charts below, I've taken the TA liberty of drawing the pricelines THROUGH prices instead of at exact highs and lows, in order to accomadate marginal new highs or lows.

In this view, ES is still in the rectangle range.





* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ebay swing long 32.19 stop 31.87

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SSO long 32.18 pre-market

I'll try SSO long 32.18 pre-market

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES SPX decision time? soon?

Daily Chart below shows trend still up but in danger of pivoting to the downside. However, an upside move to 1044 is still possible.

Notice that the ES is ABOVE the downtrend line in RSI. If ES re-tests that line and breaks lower (around 40/35ish rsi) then the ES will likely plunge. The Money Flow is still going in an uptrend but it too is close to testing its uptrend support line. The MACD is hovering around 0.

In summary, if the RSI holds over 35ish trendline and MoneyFlow stays up and 1015ish ES holds then ES is likely to make another move up. If RSI, MoneyFlow, MACD and 1015 plunge, then lower prices and possible end of this move up.



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES futures 6:30 AM

Futures have
dribbled down all night long. The test
now is whether the bears can keep it
under 1027, or if the bulls can pull
the 60min out of oversold
and push above
60stoch and above 1031.
at this moment the
charts suggest that the bulls will try to
push it back up, so lets see what
happens. If they push it above 1023
then 1025 1031 is
likely. last is ES 1020.50


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Swing possibilities: EBAY, PRU

On Monday, if market direction continues up, I'm considering the following SWING positions. I will give details on WHY I like them if I enter them:

This is what I have for now as far as prices, they might need to be adjusted on Monday depending on any gap ups/down.

1. EBAY.... target 24.27 and 25.19... last EBAY on Fri 22.46. Stops at 22.21 and 21.83. Possible re-entry if stopped and 21.60 holds.

2. PRU ... also considering long.

Will add others I'm looking at also... PRU
Will also add short ideas.

ES -- short term direction for Sunday eve

It's very hard to tell where the ES is going on Sunday night. I'm not spending a lot of time on different scenarios for Sunday eve, since the ES will unfold and tell the story for the market open on Monday. The 15minute chart has many different potential patterns, both bullish and bearish. For now, let's just wait to see how the chart matures on Sunday eve/ Monday early morn pre-market.

Right now, I see the bias as slightly UP (bullish scenario below) as long as 1025 holds, based on the 15min and 60min charts. The 15min chart is posted here, the 60 min charts are posted in the post below this one.

Expect ES to trade between 1025 and 1030 until either breaks.

Bullish: 1030 breaks higher, then expect 1035, 1038, 1044, 1060.

Bearish: 1035 breaks lower, then expect 1022,1015, 1008, 997



What's going on thus far in the ES? The chart below suggests a range with support at 1020 and 1015, with resistance at 1032 and 1038. Most of the action is between 1020 and 1032, with what appear to be false breakouts above 1032 and below 1020. Thus, the use of stops is even more important, especially for any momentum breakout trades.

What we seem to have is a channel (rectangle) in an uptrend, which can resolve either to the upside or downside. Since the trend is up, I consider it up until broken.




* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".