328
15min bear shoot star qqqq .. needs confirmation with 15min candle close under 4721
321
qqqq 60min chart still suggests a pullback, to me, in coming hours days. i'll keep my swing shorts ... simple view: look at macd hist and macd signal lines for qqqq in 60min chart, and the RSI
230
qqqq down trgts 4667 4603 4528 (approx targets, more precise ones later)
222
qqqq 60min bear desc triangle vs coil
204
expecting that VIX will break higher on its next test of 1937...last 1874
200
nervous IBM shorts could exit here near breakeven... 22 cent loss on 127.09 basis.. i remain short of course
156
ibm drops from 12765 to 12735 in 2minutes
152
also more qqqq minor sell prg here
152
as expected, qqqq go from 4717 to 4712 last
151
my software suggests qqqq distribution 4717...watching to see if falls lower
143
IBM avg basis is now 127.09
142
adding more shorts IBM 127.46.... short #2
141
qqqq first target 4667 if it ever ..breaks 47 lol..prob stall bounce there
138
vix 1862 needs to hold
137
if VIX doesnt hold gap support around here....the bullish vix island will be broken
132
qqqq 60min OBV sloped down but has not broken support yet... adx says uptrend in qqqq is tired but not confirmed as bearish yet
131
qqqq william%r is right at its trendline support now....watching to see if this hold or breaks....
128
its testing it now....
127
since feb 25 the qqqq have held support at the 60min uptrendline. i expect it to break lower, but until it does the qqqq r tech still bullish.
122
the VIX may have formed a bullish inverse island top (island bottom) .. bullish for vix, bear for spx. this is the island top i mentioned a few days ago that i was looking for in spx,,, did not get in spx but one is forming here in VIX. If the VIX holds the gap support, we will have it.
121
ES is dev a broadening formation 15min
118
small sell prg qqqq at 4718
116
yest i went short ibm, exited with profit, and re-entered. tho now the new entry is red
104
shrtoing qqqqq 4716,,, TYP 836
1240
qqqq up here but not on a buy prgm
1236
the band is no longer flat/constricted
1236
among other bullish vix signs, note that on the 15min VIX the upper Boll Band is already stretched higher as the VIX tests HOD....this usually results in a breakout... the BB will lead in this case
1233
qqqq moving lowerr here but no sell prgm
1230
vix breakout soon...93% confid level... last 1930
1238
qqqq right on the flat narrow lower BB here... a break lower sustained is a sell signal since the bands are constricted...
1226
a vix close 10min over 1940 would be bullish vix bearish sxp,,last 1931
1225
qqqq staying under 4716 would be bearish
1225
it could very well signal that the HOD is in,,, maybe
1224
it could be signif tho...that a sell program kicked in "down here" at 4710 vs 4725
1223
4706 and 4697 key
supports for qqqq...watching if they
hold or break.. last 4707
1222
qqqq sell prg
1221
charts suggest a breakout higher in VIX is imminent
1221
VIX moving up...bear spx warning...big green bar 3min VIX
1218
a 10 min close under 126.94 or pref under 125.63 would likely negate the bullish warnings from IBM, as i remain short.... bull warnings in effect until then for me
1205
the IBM has developed some bullish signs that are not good for short... watching this here... still short but watching for possible early exit / re-entry
1158
GE headed lowr but may present daytrade opp long llater on a bounce.... last 1638
1155
paas 60min poss bull cup handle
1141
watching to see if IBM gets a 13 min large HS pattern.. idea only, is only half formed now... is this the head here now?
1136
adding more paas shorts here 2265
1135
3min PAAS bear HS good for daytrade shorts from b4
1132
VIX continues its bullish pattern from last 3 days, intraday here
1124
60min and 15min charts on VIX have bull flag if it can hold. break over 19.31% could trigger upside vix, downside spx
1108
IBM poss roadmap: 127.25 to 125.25 to 126.25 to 123... (round numbers only since IBM price is over $50)
1010
for scalpers: paas is easy scalping last few days... 2220--2260 or 40 cent range
955
IBM hit the 126.73 target from yesterday---re-shorted there
953
adbe order cancelled
950
short adbe 3514 if able
9:24
will spx go for 1150 this morn? alternatively, 1148 was "it" for now and we correct down before 1150.... 1148 is close to 1150... tho double tops (if thats what we get) often OVERSHOOT the prior # and then decline.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, March 11, 2010
Wednesday, March 10, 2010
Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
352
dow up 0,,,, comp up 0.75%...
351
:) qqqq hit 4709 and stalled...close to the 4705 target.....watching to see if tests again
341
3512 on most adbe stop to lock profits
339
if adbe 3493 breaks could get fireworks,,,will prob hold,,but watching
333
scalpers would take some profits here adbe down at .07 supp
332
qqqq target down 4706
330
nice there goes adbe...downnnnnn
328
reshorting IBM here 126.25/////taking back shares i took profits on at 125.27ish
324
charts suggest adbe might break under 35.00... not sure cuz lots of support there but it would be nice
320
i will re-short the IBM at 126.70 if able
309
adbe selling prg
300
the DOW is NOT catching up to comp and qqqq.... why i added DOW shorts today via DXD
259
it's bearish if vix and spx both up on same day
258
comp up 0.79%,, vix also up 0.89%,,, spx and dow continue to lag COMP ...dow = 0.1%,,, sp500=0.5%
238
poss bear stoch dbl top adbe 2min
231
qqqq testing HOD now
206
looking for adbe to stay under 3520 else i may exit it
203
vix at high of day now...
159
if adbe tests 3506 again, it could break lower on the 3rd intraday test...last 3513
158
vix continues to base bullishly
157
adbe droppping but only on lite vol...
150
adbe...mild selling
143
:) my qqqq target for today was 4717, so far HOD is 4724, close to target
142
IBM short is swing,,,will hold overnight probably unless charts get bullish today
120
the VIX charts continue to look bullish for the coming hours days (bear spx qqqq)
113
sell programs ADBE
107
trying another adbe short ...looking for break of LOD
107
paying premium on the rest...shorting at 3516 the rest
105
partial fill 3517...
1256
adbe at 3519....only will go short if filled at 3524 limit
1252
limit short adbe 3524 if filled
1249
took adbe profits...may re-short again
1243
ibm stalled at 125.20 as expected
1235
cmon adbe...BREAK
1230
adbe has much support around here...watching to see if breaks or holds
:) down now at 3507
1228
adbe now at 3510...lower
1227
2 cents away from adbe stop...i will not change...can always re-short
1225
adbe stall here expected, stall also at 3504 if we get down there....last 3513
1224
3518 stop adbe to lock profits
1217
3524 adbe stop for a free ride down, no loss guaranteed
1213
adbe support at 3509...stall expected there maybe bounce
1206
shorting ADBE 3527
1158
that 4701 spike down in qqqq was real... a time/sales for 280,000 shares red printed
1156
ADX DMI for qqqq daily is moving up (bullish confirming uptrend) at 20.40 BUT R is at 23... if R holds or breaks at 23,,,should cause a decent move in the direction of that reaction at R...
1150
vix trying to carve out a near bull engulf pattrn on 60min.... last 1777
1147
wow glad i exited that FRX yest... at 30.45 now
1137
GE on the move up again to retest the 1662 R and poss break higher
1128
VIX and spx qqqq both moving up in 3min charts..that correlation does not usually last long....vix usually wins
1116
VIX has some possible bull candles in 15min....hammer .. but of course 15min is weak signal,,, 60min signals needed
1112
nice. ibm makes new low of day at 125.29 last....125.20 next support
1109
but a second qqqq UTL allows for 4743 resist..higher
1107
qqqq doing a touch of its UTL resist now in up channel... 4722 last
1054
i will prob cover some IBM shorts at 124.11ish for partial shares profits, then re-short, if it gets there. last 125.44
1047
IBM has nice 60min bear desc triangle, has touched the base 3 times...expecting a break lower
1036
:) qqqq hit the 4717 target exactly just now,,, has backed down thus far,, watching to see what it does here
1026
IBM has not really participated in the rally these last several days
1026
looking for ibm to break 125.40 and 125.18 and tumble down... if it holds i might have to exit and re-enter short.... swing trade
1019
SHORTINg the IBM at 125.60
1012
watching if qqqq gets over 4717 R or not.... last 4708
1006
the DOW $DJI has a 60min bearish RSI failure swing
958
in DXD long (dow short) 2796
941
qqqq right near the apex of its wedge here, depending on how u draw lines it could also be forming an up channel but very steep and unsustainable one
938
watching if VIX holds over 1770 or not...last 1782
9:32 AM
Some charts below suggest downturn
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/03/rate-of-change-chart-suggests-lower.html
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/03/fascinating-obv-chart-suggests-downturn.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
dow up 0,,,, comp up 0.75%...
351
:) qqqq hit 4709 and stalled...close to the 4705 target.....watching to see if tests again
341
3512 on most adbe stop to lock profits
339
if adbe 3493 breaks could get fireworks,,,will prob hold,,but watching
333
scalpers would take some profits here adbe down at .07 supp
332
qqqq target down 4706
330
nice there goes adbe...downnnnnn
328
reshorting IBM here 126.25/////taking back shares i took profits on at 125.27ish
324
charts suggest adbe might break under 35.00... not sure cuz lots of support there but it would be nice
320
i will re-short the IBM at 126.70 if able
309
adbe selling prg
300
the DOW is NOT catching up to comp and qqqq.... why i added DOW shorts today via DXD
259
it's bearish if vix and spx both up on same day
258
comp up 0.79%,, vix also up 0.89%,,, spx and dow continue to lag COMP ...dow = 0.1%,,, sp500=0.5%
238
poss bear stoch dbl top adbe 2min
231
qqqq testing HOD now
206
looking for adbe to stay under 3520 else i may exit it
203
vix at high of day now...
159
if adbe tests 3506 again, it could break lower on the 3rd intraday test...last 3513
158
vix continues to base bullishly
157
adbe droppping but only on lite vol...
150
adbe...mild selling
143
:) my qqqq target for today was 4717, so far HOD is 4724, close to target
142
IBM short is swing,,,will hold overnight probably unless charts get bullish today
120
the VIX charts continue to look bullish for the coming hours days (bear spx qqqq)
113
sell programs ADBE
107
trying another adbe short ...looking for break of LOD
107
paying premium on the rest...shorting at 3516 the rest
105
partial fill 3517...
1256
adbe at 3519....only will go short if filled at 3524 limit
1252
limit short adbe 3524 if filled
1249
took adbe profits...may re-short again
1243
ibm stalled at 125.20 as expected
1235
cmon adbe...BREAK
1230
adbe has much support around here...watching to see if breaks or holds
:) down now at 3507
1228
adbe now at 3510...lower
1227
2 cents away from adbe stop...i will not change...can always re-short
1225
adbe stall here expected, stall also at 3504 if we get down there....last 3513
1224
3518 stop adbe to lock profits
1217
3524 adbe stop for a free ride down, no loss guaranteed
1213
adbe support at 3509...stall expected there maybe bounce
1206
shorting ADBE 3527
1158
that 4701 spike down in qqqq was real... a time/sales for 280,000 shares red printed
1156
ADX DMI for qqqq daily is moving up (bullish confirming uptrend) at 20.40 BUT R is at 23... if R holds or breaks at 23,,,should cause a decent move in the direction of that reaction at R...
1150
vix trying to carve out a near bull engulf pattrn on 60min.... last 1777
1147
wow glad i exited that FRX yest... at 30.45 now
1137
GE on the move up again to retest the 1662 R and poss break higher
1128
VIX and spx qqqq both moving up in 3min charts..that correlation does not usually last long....vix usually wins
1116
VIX has some possible bull candles in 15min....hammer .. but of course 15min is weak signal,,, 60min signals needed
1112
nice. ibm makes new low of day at 125.29 last....125.20 next support
1109
but a second qqqq UTL allows for 4743 resist..higher
1107
qqqq doing a touch of its UTL resist now in up channel... 4722 last
1054
i will prob cover some IBM shorts at 124.11ish for partial shares profits, then re-short, if it gets there. last 125.44
1047
IBM has nice 60min bear desc triangle, has touched the base 3 times...expecting a break lower
1036
:) qqqq hit the 4717 target exactly just now,,, has backed down thus far,, watching to see what it does here
1026
IBM has not really participated in the rally these last several days
1026
looking for ibm to break 125.40 and 125.18 and tumble down... if it holds i might have to exit and re-enter short.... swing trade
1019
SHORTINg the IBM at 125.60
1012
watching if qqqq gets over 4717 R or not.... last 4708
1006
the DOW $DJI has a 60min bearish RSI failure swing
958
in DXD long (dow short) 2796
941
qqqq right near the apex of its wedge here, depending on how u draw lines it could also be forming an up channel but very steep and unsustainable one
938
watching if VIX holds over 1770 or not...last 1782
9:32 AM
Some charts below suggest downturn
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/03/rate-of-change-chart-suggests-lower.html
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/03/fascinating-obv-chart-suggests-downturn.html
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Rate Of Change chart suggests lower QQQQ
Chart below is for QQQQ. Exact targets are not calculated, the 62% and 78% shown are just for reference.
More comments on the chart itself.
Double click on chart to see full size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
More comments on the chart itself.
Double click on chart to see full size.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, March 9, 2010
Fascinating OBV chart suggests downturn
OBV (On Balance Volume) analysis is one of the most fascinating technical studies, because it generally LEADS price. (There are times when it lags, but no time to write a discussion of that for now). It is often an excellent way to ENTER A POSITION EARLY, near the "top" or "bottom" (though we don't try to call tops / bottoms, that being risky, falling knife, etc).
Unlike Moving Averages and other tech studies, OBV often LEADS price and is an excellent predictor (moving averages always lag price).
I use Money Flow, Acc/Dist, etc in addition to OBV (On Balance Volume), but OBV is the easiest to use for the purpose below.
Note that everytime (or most everytime) that a horizontal support level, or an angled trendline level was violated, that price followed, usually within hours. This is a 60 minute chart, not a daily chart, so the correlation is weaker. That is, the move down would be more if this were on a daily chart. But this does suggest at least a pullback, it's too early to tell whether it's big or small.
On the chart, the black line is OBV, the blue lines are horizontal support / resist OR a trendline. The Red/Green lines show the price when the blue line is violated by OBV.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, March 8, 2010
tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)
339
right now, esp for qqqq, my work suggests daily still strong, that a "normal correction" move down will come in coming hours days, but not a severe correction... this could change to severe depending on the daily charts. Right now, the uptrend daily is "safe", no technical damage done except a correction suggested. but that could easily change to more bearish if the daily charts start to crack. imho.
337
qqqq 20 MA is still below the 50 MA in daily,,, close but still under: 4501 vs 4585
329
if qqqq can close under 4664 it would be more bearish
325
spx should have paused at 1138 and bounce 1134,,,didnt really pause stall at the 1138
325
moving down with less selling could trigger another larger sell prgm if stops r hit
321
VIX is at minor R here, stronger R 1819,,last 1804
320
qqqq stalling right at the lower BB in 15min chart, expected.... 4674
313
advance system warnings are suggesting that qqqq should correct downwards in the coming hours days. some of the indicators that "lead" or trigger before an upturn/downturn have triggered in the 60min timeframe not the daily. that is, the leading indicators have started their downtrend signals,,,they signal in advance ... since the setup is in 60min and not daily (yet) then it's a weaker setup, less down,,,, targets to be calc later
309
the daily macd line is in a downtrend since april
307
qqqq daily MACD line is right at downtrendline R...testing....
302
vxx i bought yest is green, but i scaled in at higher prices too, so currently red there in vxx for whole position
244
deags i got some options when qqqq hit the 4703 target from this morning
242
VIX continues up..good for the short positions and vxx
241
stop on rest of GE moved to breakevn...looks like that's it for now
231
VIX crawling higher....
226
ge "should" get 1671....waiting for that next target...last 1660 but gap R is here at 1660 so tough
224
ok taking some scalp profits here at 1660 GE high of day..its lingering here,,,lots of selling... saving other shares for higher
218
GE targets up: 1661 1672 1693 1703
216
:) thus far qqqq made it 2 cents over my morning 4703 trgt...HOD 4705
213
glad to be out of frx...moving up here
210
out of FRX 100%...breakeven... to tight and i do not know which way it will break
150
now i'll do the scalp manually since it could pop over the .61
149
grrr missed GE partial profit order by one cent... stop at 1647 now
133
will take some GE scalp profits at R at 1661,,,last 1659.... saving other shares for higher
124
GE crawling higher, 1655 last,, R at 1661 also
104
ge,.. if it fails i'm out quick...mental stops 1647, 1636
1258
LONG on GE 1650...GE poss breakout so taking a long
1209
testing now the support line if its an asc triangle...frx
1206
frx maybe is building a bull asc triangle 3min...if so i will exit shorts
1154
interesting chart pattern in vx 60min for last 3 days
1141
half is daytrade half is swing, probably
1139
shorting frx 3002 daytrade
1051
out of qqqq short for now at 4683, loss daytrade
1044
vix is not going down here as spx qqq goes up...vix holding, moving up a lil
1037
qqqq just hit the 4677 trgt from 1030am... watching now to see if it hurdles higher towar 4703 approx or not backs down here
1032
qqqq broke over the 15min RSI dtl...bullish
1030
qqqq UTL resist is at 4677 so may try to reach that, last 4670... trendline from yest n today 3min
1024
vix continues to build a base, for now, last 17.92% (bullish vix, bearish qqqq spx)
1021
qqqq is right at UTL resist here 4671...watching if holds or breaks
1012
shorting FRX 2987 here
954
shorting qqqq 4657,,,typ 8.64
937
:) vix that i added yesterday is up nicely here...about 1% overnight
Tuesday 8:06 AM
Yesterday morning a mentioned a possible bearish evening star setup today. I'm looking to see if the SPX QQQQ Dow get a bearish evening star 3 day candle pattern today or not (today would be day 3, if we gap down and close lower than the open, it would be a classic eve star). On day 4,5, or 6, if we get a close below today's low, it would confirm the eve star as a reversal with more downside.
Monday Night
TBT ... 1 year daily chart
11:29
i wanted to get back in tbt as mentioned thursday but on friday i missed that one...forget to set an alert alarm for it... maybe a pullback will allow entry...tho a case can also be made for higher tlt and lower tbt so will be watching this
11:28 PM
Today was an NR7 day..narrowest range in 5 days... often a move up or down follows.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
right now, esp for qqqq, my work suggests daily still strong, that a "normal correction" move down will come in coming hours days, but not a severe correction... this could change to severe depending on the daily charts. Right now, the uptrend daily is "safe", no technical damage done except a correction suggested. but that could easily change to more bearish if the daily charts start to crack. imho.
337
qqqq 20 MA is still below the 50 MA in daily,,, close but still under: 4501 vs 4585
329
if qqqq can close under 4664 it would be more bearish
325
spx should have paused at 1138 and bounce 1134,,,didnt really pause stall at the 1138
325
moving down with less selling could trigger another larger sell prgm if stops r hit
321
VIX is at minor R here, stronger R 1819,,last 1804
320
qqqq stalling right at the lower BB in 15min chart, expected.... 4674
313
advance system warnings are suggesting that qqqq should correct downwards in the coming hours days. some of the indicators that "lead" or trigger before an upturn/downturn have triggered in the 60min timeframe not the daily. that is, the leading indicators have started their downtrend signals,,,they signal in advance ... since the setup is in 60min and not daily (yet) then it's a weaker setup, less down,,,, targets to be calc later
309
the daily macd line is in a downtrend since april
307
qqqq daily MACD line is right at downtrendline R...testing....
302
vxx i bought yest is green, but i scaled in at higher prices too, so currently red there in vxx for whole position
244
deags i got some options when qqqq hit the 4703 target from this morning
242
VIX continues up..good for the short positions and vxx
241
stop on rest of GE moved to breakevn...looks like that's it for now
231
VIX crawling higher....
226
ge "should" get 1671....waiting for that next target...last 1660 but gap R is here at 1660 so tough
224
ok taking some scalp profits here at 1660 GE high of day..its lingering here,,,lots of selling... saving other shares for higher
218
GE targets up: 1661 1672 1693 1703
216
:) thus far qqqq made it 2 cents over my morning 4703 trgt...HOD 4705
213
glad to be out of frx...moving up here
210
out of FRX 100%...breakeven... to tight and i do not know which way it will break
150
now i'll do the scalp manually since it could pop over the .61
149
grrr missed GE partial profit order by one cent... stop at 1647 now
133
will take some GE scalp profits at R at 1661,,,last 1659.... saving other shares for higher
124
GE crawling higher, 1655 last,, R at 1661 also
104
ge,.. if it fails i'm out quick...mental stops 1647, 1636
1258
LONG on GE 1650...GE poss breakout so taking a long
1209
testing now the support line if its an asc triangle...frx
1206
frx maybe is building a bull asc triangle 3min...if so i will exit shorts
1154
interesting chart pattern in vx 60min for last 3 days
1141
half is daytrade half is swing, probably
1139
shorting frx 3002 daytrade
1051
out of qqqq short for now at 4683, loss daytrade
1044
vix is not going down here as spx qqq goes up...vix holding, moving up a lil
1037
qqqq just hit the 4677 trgt from 1030am... watching now to see if it hurdles higher towar 4703 approx or not backs down here
1032
qqqq broke over the 15min RSI dtl...bullish
1030
qqqq UTL resist is at 4677 so may try to reach that, last 4670... trendline from yest n today 3min
1024
vix continues to build a base, for now, last 17.92% (bullish vix, bearish qqqq spx)
1021
qqqq is right at UTL resist here 4671...watching if holds or breaks
1012
shorting FRX 2987 here
954
shorting qqqq 4657,,,typ 8.64
937
:) vix that i added yesterday is up nicely here...about 1% overnight
Tuesday 8:06 AM
Yesterday morning a mentioned a possible bearish evening star setup today. I'm looking to see if the SPX QQQQ Dow get a bearish evening star 3 day candle pattern today or not (today would be day 3, if we gap down and close lower than the open, it would be a classic eve star). On day 4,5, or 6, if we get a close below today's low, it would confirm the eve star as a reversal with more downside.
Monday Night
TBT ... 1 year daily chart
11:29
i wanted to get back in tbt as mentioned thursday but on friday i missed that one...forget to set an alert alarm for it... maybe a pullback will allow entry...tho a case can also be made for higher tlt and lower tbt so will be watching this
11:28 PM
Today was an NR7 day..narrowest range in 5 days... often a move up or down follows.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Frequently requested postings
Frequently requested postings
I have labeled some postings that are frequently requested via email to me as "reference" in the blog. Click the link below for a list of those posts.
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/search/label/Reference
The "Daily Ramblings" for today are under this post below.
The "Daily Ramblings" for today are under this post below.
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night
432
Analysis reveals, for qqqq that the move from 4400 to 4585 was more powerful, than the move from 4584 to 4664. That is, qqqq is getting tired. but this does not rule out higher highs, just tiredness, suggesting a pullback. but if a volume move comes, it could easily increase the momen again.
To me, purely from a tech perspective, it's now better to be short the qqqq than long, and simply exit and take a loss on any surge upwards/
424
interesting...spx 60min had 2 candles close ABOVE the BB when they were flatter, but now last 7 candles 60min inside. that is often used as a "short" signal, when the candle closes back inside, BUT its preferable for the bands to be wide for that setup (which they were not). Conversely, BB issues a "go long" signal when the bands are narrow (as they were) and then prices pop outside the BB and stretch it. So we have many mixed signals, as would be expected on a day with a spinning top candle.
400
be interesting to see next 15min in futures, then i'm done for this boring day
359
covering qqqq daytrade shorts... 11 cents on first trade, and breakeven (well whole 4 cents on 2nd trade) lol
358
covering qqqq shorts here
356
what if in coming days, qqqq goes down, drags down spx and dow, and spx never reaches its 1150 target? could cause heavy selling
346
for vix to move up, under BB not required...VIX did pivot up in sept oct nov dec while inside bb, close to lower bb
3432
not a lot of buying on this move up...yet
333
vix is also an inside day,,, not as nice as the hollow red candle from jan tho
324
everyones confused uncertain: buyers buy "up here"? sellers waiting too
316
if vxx re-tests its prior high from january, it will give 47% profit,,, more profit if it exceeds it
313
buying some vxx 23.33 swing...
310
charts suggest a test of Low of day...again not very signif given small range
309
more mild selling qqqq 4655
306
qqqq still under the 3min broken utl (bearish) but the range is so small today, under the DTL is less significant.
303
mild selling... qqqq 4657
252
qqqq is still in that bear rising wedge daily chart, 15min RSI DTL is holding bearish resist, 60min continues to ride the OB with little upward movement.
249
Mondays often carryover the trend from friday, then reverse on tuesday... possible down tomorrow with more volume
245
interesting that qqqq has stalled while others play catch up.... qqqq is not moving migher
237
interesting that KMB has not done welll the last week.... considering shorting it, not yet
231
the red candles 15min in qqqq are much larger than green ones today
230
another minor break under the support line 3min upchannel in qqqq...last break under today, it recovered.... backtesting now
238
the 15min bear RSI DTL on qqqq continues to hold,,,, still short qqqq for now... last 4656 .. nervous qqqq would exit here breakeven or small profit / loss
153
poss bull inv HS on VIX 60min
136
QQQQ is right at DTL macd trendline resist qqqq 4661, macd 0.48 on daily chart
117
still daytrade short the qqqq here 4658 and 4655 entries
105
equal selling here
102
buying prog now.
101
qqqq made new HOD... marginal... one cent
1246
qqqq now testing support trendline at 4655 here (support higher than beofre since trendline is sloped up
1244
PAAS is much more interesting to daytrade today than qqqq.... daytrading and also swing in PAAS
1236
VIX back down now at 1772, still watching to see if this is bull pennant or bear desc triangle
1215
shorting PAAS 22.55
1154
qqqq rsi vs price has a mild bear diverg 15min..not very strong, would need volume to effect it, but it could "whittle away" at the q's
1146
re-shorting qqqq 4656 the shares i covered..
1143
the qqqq has a bearish "inverse" flag now, which could be bearish,,, watching it.. i 60 min chart
1141
:) ES did bounce right at 1136 as expected... see if it hurdles 1138 or not,,,,bearish if not
1138
but charts suggest qqqq break lower, for now.... so saving shorted shares in case it does
1137
qqqq held the trendline support, why i took small scalp profits
1135
taking some scalp profits here, about 10 cents,,, small yea because narrow range so far,,, holding rest of shrs for more profits or breakeven,,,,
1132
ES "should" bounce here at 1136 couple points, if not then it's weak.... 1137 last
1130
qqqq now testing the UTL support in 3min at 4649....needs to hold here for bulls,
1129
more mild selling in qqqq.... being countered with buys, but selling is more
1127
VIX has broken higher out of its bull pennant...see if it can maintain or not...last 1786.. still needs over 1817 then 1840 to get going
1121
more selling.. warns of lower poss... 4654 last qqqq
1121
markets tiring, weakening, for the moment, unless a vvolume move spikes thenm higher... ES last 1139
1119
medium selling now bearish
1109
VIX has bull pennant now in 3min but watching to see if it converts to bear desc triangle
1103
if qqqq get higher....that would convert the bear rising wedge into a bull up channel...(daily qqqq wedge)
1102
mild buying now in qqqq
1101
ES 3min could be forming SMALL bear desc triangle
1100
adding shorts q 4658 near HOD 4660
1043
we might trade in narrow range unless support or R is broken. qqqq short / TYP will just be scalp, unless qqq breaks support UTL 3min... looks possible to break in coming 20 minutes / hours so trying the short qqqq. so watching to see if it breaks or not (higher or lower)
1038
i will daytrade short q 4653 typ 863 now
1032
mild selling here... qqqq 4648
1030
but qqqq daily in a steep bear rising wedge, suggests some pullback could come, though 47.19 higher is still in the wedge
1029
qqqq intraday in 3min upchannel... bullish over 4242, bearish under it
1016
despite that red sale, msft chart bullish right now in 15min chart
1014
500,000 shares MSFT sold red 28.79 .. looking to re-short MSFT but not yet... exited prior short on friday at breakeven 28.50 ... msft might want 29.01 or 29.40
1009
analysis suggests that VIX did not yet make HOD, last 1787, HOD 1796
1000
ES bear 60min shooting star dev, but will need confirmation with a candle close below its low
955
paas silver also has 2 15min red bars....but is at support here, see if it holds or breaks
947
vix has R at 1816, last 1789.... over 1816 bullish for vix, under 1816 bearish/sideways..watching for reaction up or down at 1816 area
933
interesting.. the VIX gapped up this morning,,, watching to see what it does,,, could be bearish for spx dow qqqq...last vix 1789
7:52 AM
we have gone up on declining volume the volume ...commented on it 2/25 and have shorted since then
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/02/is-this-move-down-repeat-of-july.html
the once a year event is still valid
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/02/once-year-bearish-event-happening-now.htm
but a double top to spx 1150, or even a pop OVER 1150, is certainly possible
qqqq already basicly hit their prior 4664 hi.... hit 4654 on fri ... will it pop over or retrteat? charts still bullish short-term tho oversold
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Analysis reveals, for qqqq that the move from 4400 to 4585 was more powerful, than the move from 4584 to 4664. That is, qqqq is getting tired. but this does not rule out higher highs, just tiredness, suggesting a pullback. but if a volume move comes, it could easily increase the momen again.
To me, purely from a tech perspective, it's now better to be short the qqqq than long, and simply exit and take a loss on any surge upwards/
424
interesting...spx 60min had 2 candles close ABOVE the BB when they were flatter, but now last 7 candles 60min inside. that is often used as a "short" signal, when the candle closes back inside, BUT its preferable for the bands to be wide for that setup (which they were not). Conversely, BB issues a "go long" signal when the bands are narrow (as they were) and then prices pop outside the BB and stretch it. So we have many mixed signals, as would be expected on a day with a spinning top candle.
400
be interesting to see next 15min in futures, then i'm done for this boring day
359
covering qqqq daytrade shorts... 11 cents on first trade, and breakeven (well whole 4 cents on 2nd trade) lol
358
covering qqqq shorts here
356
what if in coming days, qqqq goes down, drags down spx and dow, and spx never reaches its 1150 target? could cause heavy selling
346
for vix to move up, under BB not required...VIX did pivot up in sept oct nov dec while inside bb, close to lower bb
3432
not a lot of buying on this move up...yet
333
vix is also an inside day,,, not as nice as the hollow red candle from jan tho
324
everyones confused uncertain: buyers buy "up here"? sellers waiting too
316
if vxx re-tests its prior high from january, it will give 47% profit,,, more profit if it exceeds it
313
buying some vxx 23.33 swing...
310
charts suggest a test of Low of day...again not very signif given small range
309
more mild selling qqqq 4655
306
qqqq still under the 3min broken utl (bearish) but the range is so small today, under the DTL is less significant.
303
mild selling... qqqq 4657
252
qqqq is still in that bear rising wedge daily chart, 15min RSI DTL is holding bearish resist, 60min continues to ride the OB with little upward movement.
249
Mondays often carryover the trend from friday, then reverse on tuesday... possible down tomorrow with more volume
245
interesting that qqqq has stalled while others play catch up.... qqqq is not moving migher
237
interesting that KMB has not done welll the last week.... considering shorting it, not yet
231
the red candles 15min in qqqq are much larger than green ones today
230
another minor break under the support line 3min upchannel in qqqq...last break under today, it recovered.... backtesting now
238
the 15min bear RSI DTL on qqqq continues to hold,,,, still short qqqq for now... last 4656 .. nervous qqqq would exit here breakeven or small profit / loss
153
poss bull inv HS on VIX 60min
136
QQQQ is right at DTL macd trendline resist qqqq 4661, macd 0.48 on daily chart
117
still daytrade short the qqqq here 4658 and 4655 entries
105
equal selling here
102
buying prog now.
101
qqqq made new HOD... marginal... one cent
1246
qqqq now testing support trendline at 4655 here (support higher than beofre since trendline is sloped up
1244
PAAS is much more interesting to daytrade today than qqqq.... daytrading and also swing in PAAS
1236
VIX back down now at 1772, still watching to see if this is bull pennant or bear desc triangle
1215
shorting PAAS 22.55
1154
qqqq rsi vs price has a mild bear diverg 15min..not very strong, would need volume to effect it, but it could "whittle away" at the q's
1146
re-shorting qqqq 4656 the shares i covered..
1143
the qqqq has a bearish "inverse" flag now, which could be bearish,,, watching it.. i 60 min chart
1141
:) ES did bounce right at 1136 as expected... see if it hurdles 1138 or not,,,,bearish if not
1138
but charts suggest qqqq break lower, for now.... so saving shorted shares in case it does
1137
qqqq held the trendline support, why i took small scalp profits
1135
taking some scalp profits here, about 10 cents,,, small yea because narrow range so far,,, holding rest of shrs for more profits or breakeven,,,,
1132
ES "should" bounce here at 1136 couple points, if not then it's weak.... 1137 last
1130
qqqq now testing the UTL support in 3min at 4649....needs to hold here for bulls,
1129
more mild selling in qqqq.... being countered with buys, but selling is more
1127
VIX has broken higher out of its bull pennant...see if it can maintain or not...last 1786.. still needs over 1817 then 1840 to get going
1121
more selling.. warns of lower poss... 4654 last qqqq
1121
markets tiring, weakening, for the moment, unless a vvolume move spikes thenm higher... ES last 1139
1119
medium selling now bearish
1109
VIX has bull pennant now in 3min but watching to see if it converts to bear desc triangle
1103
if qqqq get higher....that would convert the bear rising wedge into a bull up channel...(daily qqqq wedge)
1102
mild buying now in qqqq
1101
ES 3min could be forming SMALL bear desc triangle
1100
adding shorts q 4658 near HOD 4660
1043
we might trade in narrow range unless support or R is broken. qqqq short / TYP will just be scalp, unless qqq breaks support UTL 3min... looks possible to break in coming 20 minutes / hours so trying the short qqqq. so watching to see if it breaks or not (higher or lower)
1038
i will daytrade short q 4653 typ 863 now
1032
mild selling here... qqqq 4648
1030
but qqqq daily in a steep bear rising wedge, suggests some pullback could come, though 47.19 higher is still in the wedge
1029
qqqq intraday in 3min upchannel... bullish over 4242, bearish under it
1016
despite that red sale, msft chart bullish right now in 15min chart
1014
500,000 shares MSFT sold red 28.79 .. looking to re-short MSFT but not yet... exited prior short on friday at breakeven 28.50 ... msft might want 29.01 or 29.40
1009
analysis suggests that VIX did not yet make HOD, last 1787, HOD 1796
1000
ES bear 60min shooting star dev, but will need confirmation with a candle close below its low
955
paas silver also has 2 15min red bars....but is at support here, see if it holds or breaks
947
vix has R at 1816, last 1789.... over 1816 bullish for vix, under 1816 bearish/sideways..watching for reaction up or down at 1816 area
933
interesting.. the VIX gapped up this morning,,, watching to see what it does,,, could be bearish for spx dow qqqq...last vix 1789
7:52 AM
we have gone up on declining volume the volume ...commented on it 2/25 and have shorted since then
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/02/is-this-move-down-repeat-of-july.html
the once a year event is still valid
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2010/02/once-year-bearish-event-happening-now.htm
but a double top to spx 1150, or even a pop OVER 1150, is certainly possible
qqqq already basicly hit their prior 4664 hi.... hit 4654 on fri ... will it pop over or retrteat? charts still bullish short-term tho oversold
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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