Monday ramblings

0445
ES and QQQQ are down afterhours, as expected at 0359pm

0440
qqqq hit 4985 AH, close to the 49.83 target from 4:02 PM.. it could go lower than that even

0440

SDS SPXU new swing entered this morning is slightly red,,, sds 2916 vs 2950 cost or spxu 2735 vs 2780

0402
wouldnt be surprised to see qqqq hit 49.83 in AH, 4994 last

0359
could move down 15min AH

0342
looks like one more push down b4 the close, last spx 1202

0326
i think we see more downside tomorrow

0324
there it is..broken

0324
qqqq should break .96

0319
vix stalled at 1998ish as expected, pulled back,,, now testing 1998 again,,, expecting break higher

0319
still see lower spx under 1202

0312
covering 25% qqqq shorts here to lock some profit at 4997

0311
4994 qqqq support

0311
1998 vix stalll....moved as expected but could stall there,,, last 1984

0309
stilll see vix up in coming minutes..

0304
vix holding its form now,,,caused spx to drop some there,,,still no vol tho

0302
down here but not on any meaningful vol...still chop for now

0300
i have a vix upside movement setup,, last 1970,,, bearish spx for now

0259
vix suggesting higher vix...

0247
last two 60min candles in ES bearish

0245
wow qqqq volume very low today

0232
qqqq 20 MA on 60min still under the 50MA...has not crossed it

0228
i still have a "stay short" setup

0225
1million qqqq traded red at 50.07,,,, MM could push up to cover their long,,, or drop it,,, could go either way depending on what they did earlier in day

0223
usually the failure swings hold the backtest, if not then i'll cover qqqq shorts and re-enter if appropriate later

0221
qqqq r backtesting the failure swing 10min,,,, see what reaction is up or down

0213
we have the bear qqqq 10min failure swing,,,watching for followthruough now

0211
looks like it will break 50.05 this time in qqqq for moderate target down

0207
down here but not on heavy volume at least not yet,,,still just chop but continues to weaken

0205
the 10min qqqq has one tooo, a break below the neckline would give a bear rsi failure swing

0204
qqqq 3min rsi bear HS developing,, but holding for now

0152
its likely they will hold up today in this light volume, then test 1190spx first tomorrow,,, spx moved to R today, move down to support tomorrow,, if spx doesnt close near highs, shows further weakness today

0150
i see downside today from here but it is likely limitited today,,,, whipsaw in coming days,,, then lower

0139
the qqqq 60min MoneyFlow and OBV are setting up bearish HS patterns

0130
49.83 first qqqq target down, short

0129
SPX stalled and turned down exactly at a perfect touch of the 60 min downtrend R line

0119
a 10min close under 5004 qqqq would give a good short setup

1257
i will do 50.12 short qqqq,, TYP is at 6.95

1240
daily spx qqqq still in a coil....up and down likely until it is broken either way

1228
spx prices still below 50 MA on 60 min chart.... 20 MA still below 50MA,,, daily coil

1224
last move up had good volume

1139
not so sure...there is a bear diverg macd hist setting up spx 10min

1124
but i can see a poss inv HS in 15min chart also

1123
spx 15min downchannel, ES 15min not so clear

1058
the sell program warning from 1026AM has manifested itself here,,,1196 spx to
1191, a 5 point drop.... lower still possible

1055
*correction: spx coil support is at 1188 not here... support is lower down, last 1192

1053
but a small bounce at the coil support wouldnt surprise either, tho bias still down

1052
spx right at the daily coil support here, looks like it will break lower

1046
spx daily continues to coil for now

1044
mini bear HS forming spx 3min

1043
*4946 stop tbt

1038
tbt stop 4547 for now,,,itte, last 4550,,, can always re-enter,,, would be a 1.9% loss if stopped

1035
qqqq pullled back right near that 4977 resist as expected... still see R there

1032
 short setup 80% complete now, hold time 15min-4 hours

1026
spx sell program here small, warns of more later,,, spx1196

1021
i seee 4977 qqqq then stall,, last 4971

1018
spx has more work on the downside though

1012
qqqq resist at 4971

1010
i see more sell vol than buy vol... last 10 minutes

1004
also there was some volume on the last lil move down, hence the short

1003
i'll try spxu 27.80... spx weaker now than 5 min ago.. bias for hours / days is down still

1001
TBT looking good this morn, recovering from friday decline

952
intraday bias is up to me, for now,,,

948
comments may be sparse today...

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0424
spx also shows some signs daily that it may be starting a coil triange

0353
vix at 22 R.... could pop to 23,,,sounds high but it could

0337
not an easy environ to trade in like that so i'll keep small positions swings

0336
heres what i see spx: daily bias down, 60 min down, 15min up/neutral,,,, but other indicators i have suggest whipsaw

0321
last lil move up on lite vol to push up,,,still thinking lower into close

0307
skf target 1846

0306
4922 qqqq limit to cover half

0259
4393 qqqq wick did have a print but only for 70,000 shares

0253
vix is pushing up nicely against its BB stretching it not piercing spiking thru it

244
cancelled limit order   ...usually will go lower when only misses by one cent

0242
4936 is good spot to cover half but trying for the 4933 limit first

0239
VIX is now at high of day...

0236
still have that 49.33 limit cover qqqq from 49.61/73 on half of shares,,,holding other half for more profit if able

0234
using SPY and QQQQ to do long/short is so much better than the 2x or 3x etfs.... such high volume on the spy qqqq

0228
  the "orderliness" of this decline is typical of stage 3 distribution tho,, with the stage 4of decline to follow

0225
but since adx has bottomed and rising,,,watching for possible bull cross there to indicate move over,,,when adx bottoms the trend can shift

0223
adx line qqqq 15min bottomed and risiing, with DI neg on top... showing the qqqq downtrend not done yet in 15min charts

0218
we could move sideways for a week, then down

0216
ah those MM used a trick to paint that last 15min candle green,,,, tricky guys,,, ran it up just b4 the 15min bar close

0212
intraday 15min qqqq have 4 waves, looks like 5th wave down starting here

0209
2million qqqq just sold red at 49.46

0203
for profit, if able,,covedr 25% newly added qqqq shorts limit 49.33

0159
see if qqqq bounce to 4956 and hold down there, last 4950

0158
4961 was good re-entry short qqqq thus far.. close the retraced high

0150
4961 qqqqq short looks good here

0113
next qqq target is 49.22,,, other qqqq targets.... 48.98,,,, 48.37 if 49.87 R holds


0108
VIX just broke yesterdays high, tho marginally

0106
3min bull diverg on qqqq may present opp to add to shorts if it rises

0105
stop 4987 on 50% of qqqq remaining now, and stop breakeven on other 25% (took profits on 25% already)

0103
i covered some qqqq to lock profits but still see lower in coming hours days

0100
covering 25% qqqq at 4940

1256
my tbt conversely is a mess lol, down 1.8% but thats longer hold

1255
skf has broken over yesterdays high of 1789 and is at 1803 and rising, up 3.80%

1238
Market makers are holding qqqq up here and shorting into them

1233
QQQQ is right at its 20 MA daily now testing it near 49.54.... hold first time expected there... but often will overshoot lower, then backtest back up

1228
watching for possible formation of the ever so popular inverse Head And SHoulders bullish in the QQQQ 3min, tho still short

1224
my qqqq targets.... 48.98,,,, 48.37 if 49.60 R holds

1219
qqqq...if no stall at 4960....they are really weak...should stall there

1217
watching 4960 now....stall 4968 expected

1212
watching qqqq at 4968 reaction if it gets there,,,hold or bounce...last 4972

1212
qqqq weak also,,, HS in 3min bearish, broken neck

1209
shorting qqqq here directly instead of qid or typ,,,using 3x the shares to mimic 3x etf....vol too low on the 2/3x etfs

1149
i'll try QID 1546 limit if able

1142
considering QID but no entry yet

1127
xlf skf faz...in a 15min coil...bouncing around... waiting for entry into faz

1049
stopped out on other piece of spxu, only got 1.25% profit on 25% of spxu

1048
stops on remaining spxu at breakeven

1046
ES could be trying a bull cup handle 3min but i still like short

1043
1198 ES short here could work, hold time 15min--4 hours

1034
should pull back here from 1198

1027
ES resis 1198---see if it holds

1019
charts suggest one more move down to break 1193 ES before signif bounce up, to me at this min

1016
VIX JUST DID INTRADAY GAP UP FROM 1935 to 1958///could be significant,,,, intraday gaps like that less common than overnite gaps

1009
next spxu trgt 27.84

1006
taking 1.25% profit here spxu,,, 1197 ES,,, 2749 spxu, on 25% shares, cuz at R,, cannot turn down 1.25% profit in 8 minutes hold time,, or ES 1202.50--1197 or 5.5 points

1000
60minute move down may only just be beginning

958
*1202.50 ES sorry

957
in 27.12 spxu,,,paying premium, starter position...at 1203 ES

954
trying spxu 2696 limit buy for now, if filled

953
i might do a momentum trade starting position on a break of ES low but waiting for bounce up in spx to short first if able

942
simple view: observe the MACD histogram in 15 and 60min uptick downticks for momentum shifts

941
until spx 15 and 60min strengthen, i remain bearish for coming hours not minutes

939
since April 16 the 60min rsi on skf has stayed over 34 for a low but over 66 for highs, this implies the upside in skf is stronger (bearish xlf)

937
10 15 60 min charts suggest down in spx to me, from a hold time of hours not minutes

935
spx 15min boll bands are tight,,,a break over of either is likely to continue in direction of break...now testing the lower BB

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0804 PM
SKF and FAZ went up in afterhours,,, used that opp to sell some FAZ for 1.75% profit at 11.52, bought today 11.32... i was planning on holding this till tomorrow but i've got skf, so locked in leftover faz


0339
this looks like backtest of last lil move down,,,,

0329
MM are testing market here,,, they pulled out for a few minutes

0320
breadth testing a support level here

0318
wow no movement considering 3:18pm

0312
XLF daily...still in the falling price channel

0306
*5 EMA oops

0305
15min nyse a/d crossed bearish under its 10MA

0302
taking 1.5% profit here on 25% more faz, just to be sure,,,holding rest for higher

0258
not dropping ask, just bid

0257
hmm...MM dropping their bids here

0254
this move has more vol than last down

0251
vix trying to wake up....

0244
ES support at 1202 and 1199,,,, over those levels, bullish ES, but break below could trigger stops lower

0241
selling 25% of FAZ 1142,,,, need to take at least one profit today even if small,, only about 1%

0237
i dont like the last 4 candles in 60min es...those r bearish,, ES last 1206

0226
breadth looking toppy to me,, the nyse adv-decl

0218
doing faz day here 1132

0214
XLF resistance is holding here thus far,,,skf support held....watching

0205
we "should" pull back here LOL but who knows today,,,very bullish day on light vol tho

0203
ES vol today much less than yesterday and day b4

0200
skf support at 1723,,,watching to see if that holds...last 1730

0122
nyse adv minus dec 60min peaked at 10AM today, is flat since then hasnt moved up

0100
15min macd hist does have diverg, tho not 15min rsi nor 15min macd-line,,, but the 60min macd line is forming a diverg now

1254
i know we talked about bear divergences 3 times today lol... this is the first time today that theres a bull diverg on the 133t SKF tho (bear diverg XLF),,, SKF 1743

1241
i have a "declining breadth warning"... hasnt happened but warns of it,, spx at 1208 suggests lower

1229
skf bull crouching tiger forming but only at 78% now,,but forming

1216
when the 3rd drive to a high fails to hurdle the high, a larger move down often occurs,,, of course this is intraday not daily so degree is less magnified

1216
a failed mini triple top....in ES... those are generally worse downside than double tops

1211
the daily rsi 14 has an intriguing horiz support line at 41.01.... its both breakout higher support and also backtest support,,, vix at 52.60 rsi now so it could still decline more and be bullish vix as long as 41.01 rsi holds and vix stays over 16.00/17.00

1200
*SDS down 3% not skf oops

1159
currently my skf down 3%, skf down 1%, tbt up 0.5%... all trades still valid to me for now

1142
SPX near high of day but NYSE advance minus decline has a lower high, affect not immediately seen usually


1139
buy program, moderate,,,

1121
i'm not adding to sds but rather transitioning from sds to skf,,, i like skf more,, still have red sds from 29.85 swing

1117
skf LOD so far 1759 low of day

1116
. i have an 88% day setup for skf now

1115
skf avg cost 17.72

1114
adding some skf here 1762

1042
3min bear diverg spx now, spx 1203.50

1019
in general,,, ES should have made a higher intraday high by now,,,, shows weakness to me for time being...gap theory

1012
bearish es 60min candles so far... 3 shoot stars / gravestones

1001
i have a sell program warning but only at 79%,, means sell program might kick in within 20min, last spx 1200

0955
small sell prog in financials

0944
i am in SKF at 1781

0827 AM
watching to see if ES 1201 Resist holds

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

More details....

0402
today,,,, ES tagged the 38% fib


exactly and bounced down off it.....
 
0359
ES 1177 will likely break under 1177 if it gets back there, in coming days

0355
today looks green in spx, but volume was actually red today not green,,,

0353
as i see it,,,, spx tested R today and failed, the short trade swing remains valid now

0352
bought sds to short spx,,, 29.80, will hold as swing

0349
now i'm bearish, might even pick up small short in spx /// sds

0346
took profits in HRL too,,,, out for 1% profit

0345
charts are changed now,,, i will not hold any sso overnight swing

0342
ES under 1188, bearish into close,,,

0324
tricky here,,,,vix trying to move up

0321
spx 3min is coiling again

0317
1188 ES....thats my # into the close,,,over it bullish, under bearish

0316
those rsi failure swings (bullish) can be powerful when on the 60min

0313
i just might keep a 10% very small long position overnight,,,can't believe i'm saying that but 60min says spx might have unfinished biz on upside,,,,,its a tricky setup

0311
watching if ES 1188 holds here,,,could set stage for the close

0307
ES over 1188 gives a...u guessed it ,,, small inv HS, 3min

0302
also note how ES is stretching the boll bands (15min) not just popping above them (bullish)

0301
there is a bull rsi fail swing in the 60min spx but 15min suggests chop consolod or whipsaw

0300
looking for a slight overshoot of spx 1196 tho

0258
maybe tomorrow i will turn bearish,,,stilll bullish intraday here for now

0239
spx 3 min is coiling

0237
its crazy tho,,, n unfair.... the volume is on the downside today,,,this is a trick they use,,, spx closes green, with a green volume bar, but really it was distribution (if it does close green).... this is not uncommon

0225
taking 1% profits here on 25% of shares,,, still have half left,,,sso

0222
uh oh..vix breaking minor support here,, good for longs bad for short

0220
tlt spiked down to < 4630 then made new HOD > 4660

0219
TBT TLT had a much bigger reaction than spx ES

0217
ok vix has just hit the 2124 test expected,,watching here

0212
i have an HRL buy program warning here,,, warning only not buy prog yet,, only for HRL not spx

0210
taking some sso off here at small 0.5%,,,,so will be above breakeven if stopped out

0204
but the large sell volume vs lower buy vol... risky for long

0204
also...vix has a recent history of taking awhile to recover from dbl tops intraday,, has one today

0202
3 min spx...cup n handle bullish pattern

0201
tbt getting jittery,,,moving up...

0158
i'm staying long sso thru fomc past 2pm,,,stops r set for a one cent loss

0158
VIX is very likely to test 21.29 now,,,last 21.55

0153
*43.33 stop sso, oops

0151
*stop 4336 sso

0150
bears want vix to stay over 2120 breakout area

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

momentum traders often go long on the 3rd break

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

i dont like shorting the third test of the high,,,could explode upwards if the R fails

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

i guess i will take 0.82% profits on 25% of HRL shares here,,,,lock in something anyways

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".