Friday, April 29, 2011

Friday thoughts

415
aapl daily volume chart is misleading,,,the vol bar will appear green because appl was up 1% today, but by far almost all the daily volume was red, at the close

355
31.55 tza trgt lower

325
exiting the small silver position,taking loss

254
1245 and 1258 BAC targets for 75% of shares scalp

253
i'm raising the AA stop in 2 cent increments as it moves up,,,wont keep posting all those stop changes here to avoid ridiculous clutter,,, same with BAC

245
BAC low risk scalp: long 1236 stop 1234....its in this 2 cent range,,,if breaks higher will take profit else 2 cent loss

237
1695 AA stop,,, lol obviously i want out of this today,,,now in profit zone if stopped tho minimal

226
stop 1693 now on AA, raised

225
the daily spx candles,,,,this suggests to me tight stops on long positions and profit taking here at least partial,,,,this could fall 100 dow points easily ,,,or can continue higher,,,for swings,,,so will keep some select longs like AAPL and other,,, and getting out of other long swings today,,,will keep cotton BAL long swings

220
stop 16.88 on AA,,,reducing long positions "up here",, AA will be breakevenish/small loss if stopped, last 1694,,will try to ride higher but if stop hit then i'm out

212
out of F ford long 1554,,,from 1550, breakevenish

149
i'm going to exit Ford 15.57 if able today,,,,need to scale back on some longs,,,think F has higher to go but dont want risk,,,minimal profit of 1%ish on last entry,,idea is to reduce risk more than profit take

spx is nearing resist levels and while its bullish over the 1351, i dont want to get caught in a downdraft,,, keeping other longs in AAPL  BAL and others,,,may also exit AA long today with small profit, unsure

135
slv 60min has bull pennant not flag pointing to 50ish approx on break of pennant, but protective stop remains on slv,,,it doesnt "seem like" silver should be up here,,,but it is,,,crazy

132
lim sell half aapl 357.70 from 346.18 for $11.52 profit,,holding rest for higher trtgts

104
90.23ish next bal target,,,cotton up 4.5%ish today in a single day, a close over yest high would confirm pPp bull macd daily buy signal

1249
OUT of bal 8675 here, still have 66% of shares,
8300 to 8675 or 3.75 profit from this morn entry

1242
SLV stop 4640, lim sell 49.80

1213
unbelievable Silver,,,looks like it wants higher intraday,
agg small pos silver long SLV 4757

1202
mini break higher on the spx 3min bull asc triangle, with v mini bull flag last 5 candles 3min,,,but such small candles may be meaningless, but over 1363 R could cause accel

1150
spx trying to break that 1363,,,watching reaction,,,if breaks higher could be painful for intraday shorts

1131
the 60min chart of F ford is doing what the 15min chart did yest,,,60min pattern should cause a larger move than the 15min did, if it triggers

1110
60min aapl is stalling here, not yet broken out of bull flag,,,a pb to lower boundry of flag would be ok as long as stays inside it,,,or conversely may be a mini bull flag atm inside the larger bull flag

1108
for swings, if spx loses 1335 lower, could see 1255,,, losing the 1335 will likely also cause the 1295 supp to crack, but spx bullish over 1351

1102
*over 1362.25, spx not es

1101
3min spx bull asc triangle,,1365ish trgt if breaks over 1361

1055
for swings, not scalps

1055
this is actually a "defensive" stance from the bulls,,, indice etf traders of long qqq spx need to be careful and set stops,,, the bulls are still bullish but are now taking defensive positions

1052
individual stocks are outperforming even the 3x etfs long,,,showing that this time the moves are "selective",, in general this is common BUT it is much more exxagerated on my reports

1038
BAL 8688/8700 daily trgt, last 8332, cotton

1033
qqq down .11%,,aapl up 1.09%,,, qqq may catch up but rimm,, aapl outperforming today as expected

1024
lim sell ford F 16.13 then will look to maybe reenter

1013
9370 lim sell BAL from 8300 entry this AM,,,,may sell before then, but this time if the 15min DTL breaks then i expect a move up to near Wednesdays opening high

1008
back in BAL again 83 ,,, been good for 2-5 dollar moves lately intraday, for continues combo scalp/swing

1003
358.50 AAPL trgt, last 349.70

950
aapl trying to break higher from the 60m bull flag, not done so yet but close

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 28, 2011

Thursday thoughts April 28

405
holding the tza short overnight for now,, to see how it decays in coming day

405pm
tza moved lower toward the .30ish trgt from 11:05 AM

319
heres the expected test of TZA low of day,,,still see the lower trgt daily

310
over 349.50ish would be a break higher out of the aapls bull flag 60m

305
aapl filled gap, bull flag poss on the daily and 60min

303
335ish stop

303
aapl 50% size position

303
swing,,, AAPL long here 346.17

238
AA 15min bull harami candles forming

234
watch for vix over 18 for spx pb,,,tho one could also argues its getting "too low" even for the bulls, too complacenent,,, stops r set on longs

222
my simple view remains same regardless: over the 5 Moving avg on a closing basis, bullish,,,of course we use other tools not just simple MA,,,,also bears need to put in a big red candle daily, not 3 small red ones, as small red ones may just be a bull flag

219
theres the high vol move up on BAC expected,,tho only for 5 cents its biggest 3min and 15min candle in awhile,,watching to see if can follow thru or not

218
a 15min close under tza 3274 would sugg test of todays low,, using 1) shoot star bear method and (2) bear amcd hist mMm

215
not much time yet but i still think TZA can make a lower low daily,, same trgt as 10am

200
not sure if the pokey, badly hit BAC will move up or not, but Market Maker reports suggest higher, sugg MM accum, 12.30 last, with 12.60 resist trgt, then higher IF it can break the .60ish area

153
for ford F,, a move over 1577 is what's "really" needed, for a test to 1618 for 1780 trgt

150
also,,15min stoch lil spike to 35ish,,,seeing if it can move F

149
if F doesnt move today then i'll likely exit a piece to move back to 25% size pos,,,50% size atm

148
adding Ford long here F,,,to existing position, 1548,, 3min looks like poss berak higher within bullish daily 60min

140
next lim order for BAL is 8720, with 8480 last

134
COTTON futures /CT appear to be putting in a bottom last 2 days, tho yest candle doesnt look like it the intraday suggests such,,and if CT can close near here today then it will ahve a nice bull hammer day candle,,,a rally to 175ish is expected, then stall, pb ,,, then 192 and 220,,, poss 280 in coming weeks months,,,last 152,,, sounds crazy but these commodoties can be crazy wild and move nicely

127
added AA 17.02,,,may go lower but paying premium here, half size position now

121
will add AA 16.77 lim if able, to existing long swing

112
grrr stopped on axp 4827,,,will look to reenter later long,,,profits locked, strong uptrend daily has been compromised and could see 4700 now

108
$3 on that piece,,,ooops

107
cotton BAL just got filled on sale,,,
$2 profit on that 25%,,,still have half

105
 axp stop raised to .27

1255
stopped out of CORN,,,will look to reenter,,,took a LOSS there :(

1253
changing lim sell axp to 4873 from 4885, lowered trgt and will try to buy back lower if filled, last 4844, watcing 4850 to see if stalls, axp is on a strong trend day with no pullbacks but is very near its daily trgt (swing trgts higher )

1237
UNG nat gas has broken nicely higher out of its 3 day bull flag and is now at its trgt,,,may stall or break .91, unsurue,

1228
axp daily trgts next are 4833 and 4885,,
lim sell 4885 in additino to protect stop

1225
took 25% of BAL off here for $1 profit, holding rest,,,its v volatile, still have 85, 87, 92, 100, 115 trgts for swing piece, but BAL still in a heavy correction so i'm scalping until it gets a nice daily candle close over resist, still under R atm

1210
axp continues higher and higher,,
raising stop to 47.97 on half of remaining position,

1204
watcing to see if tza makes a higher low or not on 3min (for scalp),,,if so then tza long may setup,,,unsure, no entry yet, still short 2nd atm,, still no SWING short entries tho on spx or russel or qqq

1201
EUO moving up a bit here on 60min, first green candle in 7 hours

1138
/CT overnite low was 146.50 ,,147.68 so may want to test that lower first

1137
8489 bal cotton trgt, last 8175,,,

1130
cotton,,,BAL again here 82.02ish,, last 8204,,,again this is v volatile and in a downtrend, agressive,,,yest it gave $2 profit, trying again

1118
tza at  mental stop but will hold the short for now, stop near breakeven in case of sudden surge

1112
.........................................................................
CORN position is red but still valid imo,,,may add more later but not yet

1111
axp now at 4798 or 2 cents from trgt, so considering the trgt hit,,,but i'll hold this for higher

1109
3267ish mental stop on tza

1105
3min chart suggests lower tza

1105
tza testing low of day here now,,,trgt is 3230ish approx if .60 breaks lower,, could bounce

1051
taking 25% of shares off tza for 20 cent profit in 10min, holding 75%

1041
shorting 3x tza 32.90 (same as long tna russel)

1011am
axp continues higher today 4781 last from 4670, next trgts are 4800 and 4913,


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 27, 2011

Wednesday thoughts April 27

422
axp trgt from 322pm was 4777, made 4770

421
written in big red letters on whiteboard: VIX over 18,,,could be v bearish for spx,,,level of the Feb correction,,,just a level to watch, needs confirmation

404
crazy 7% swings on silver

403
AH, tempted to re-short slv again but will wait for tomorrow to see what it does

402
exiting slv long from 4427, at 4700 here,,, slv crazy volatile to short and long both, now flat slv

340
.............................................................................
out of TLT ,,,took loss there 9297 sold vs 9325 entry

349
.63 stop on axp on half of remaining half (25%),,,other 25% stop set lower near breakeven to allow chop room coming days

347
tlt stop 9297

346
took half of axp off to lock profit on touch of daily trendlin

342
AXP now at daily resist line but could push higher, .70 last

339
*9288 stop

338
TLT stop 9293, 9305 last

334
AA has also broken over its april 12 hi of 1710, starting to fill the gap

332
4777 next intraday trgt axp, .55 last

331
AXP has done it, the .50 has broken (marginally),,,,,watching to see if sustains now or not

329
stop 1227 on BAC

321
axp approaching the 4750 trgt test,,,still see a break higher on axp for swing long

317
adding tlt 9285 here

245
CORN bounced off daily uptrend line  twice today and has horiz supp below,,,will stay long while horiz supp holds, have 2 levels of supp, trendline and horiz

243
swing,back in CORN long half size pos, 4630, stop 44.33

208
Back in Ford F 15.50

207
on daily, 1356 and 1363 are fib extension spx trgts

137
AXP boll bands 60min chart now very narrow tight

104
lim sell BAC 1259 if filled

102
limit order in place to sell TLT 9447 to catch quick surge if we get one

1256
cotton was v early entry,,but worked nice,,,cotton can have a monster rally after this big huge correction ends,,,it may not have ended yet,,,maybe today was end, too early to know

1251
out of BAL 8490--8497 for a quick $2ish from 83 hour ago,,,still have half of this stuff :)

1243
BAL daily trgt 85 from 83,, swing trgts100ish

1232
filled on 9302 TLT limit order on that spike down, last 9330,,,getting volatile 

1214
EARLY ENTRY, starter postion on cotton here via BAL 83.00,,, wide stop, its v volatile and could go lower first,,,building a swing position but will exit today if it moves higher, then re-entr,, agressive trade, not for the faint of heart

1159
for spx swings

1159
 spx simple view: needs a daily close below its 5 day moving average,,,the highest one (soonest) before short setup,,then may get a short setup,,bullish on spx while above the tight 5MA

1157
idea: also HRB long setup swing forming, no entry yet,,,was prev short HRB,,,, HRB didnt budge on the 3/15 decline and in daily uptrend since march

1135
looking to reenter CORN and BAL cotton, no entries yet,,,BAL is in downtrend and is v volatile, large price moves on BAL so will go with less shares

1134
i will add TLT (double to 100% size) lim 9302, if filled, else run with existing position,,,

1127
TLT is filling its gap lower,,,i'll be patient and keep the half size position,,may add more but not now

1048
still holding axp long from 4700ish for a break over 4750

also in AA long 1700ish, last 1688

1048
in TLT long 93.39, half size position, 9380 first trgt, then possible break higher to new hi

1047am
in BAC 12.30 for 12.60 target today, appears poised to break the 15min dopwntrendline,,,if no break then will likely exit


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 21, 2011

Thu

400
sweet,,,nailed the ford high,,,Ford high of day was 1545,,,one cent over the 1544 trgt revised 3pm

358
out of F,,,got the fill finally

358
partial fill on Ford at 1544,,,trying to get the rest filled :D

353
1544 will selll Ford to lock profit and look to reentr again

240
since april 12, silver 60min has had only 7 red candles

222
on daily spx

222
spx is now in its resistance zone again,,,this is the third trip to this area,,,many traders believe it is dangerous to prematurely short the 3rd visitation, as it often breaks higher,,,just a thought

215
theres the "down" on spx i mentinoed below, followed by bounce

214
may sell half of F today ,,unsure, at lower

214
F now testing high of day 1537,, still have higher trgts, lim sell 1593


203
this pattern in spx,,,3min, may drop a bit to a higher low and then break higher, or may go higher here, over 1333 spx bullish on scalp side imo,,, one 3min dtl has broken higher but often retests to form a second 1 b4 higher,,but not much movement on spx today narrow range

153
good for day only, will sell BAL lim 96.96 for over 5% profit in 4 hours,,,see higher but if it hits that today will exit and try rentry next week,,,likely not get sold today

136
.....................................................................................
LOL now BAL down 2%,,,theres volatility in cotton

116
wow BAL has done a 3min parabolic move,,,up 2% now from entry earlier today,,,holding for higher swing targets,,,sadly not enough shares to scalp on this early entry long

1251
nice move on BAL 3min chart now,,, parablolic breakout 3min

1230
3min BAL is bullish so seeing what it does between now and close,

1227
i was going to wait a 4-24 more trading hours for BAL but decided on a starter entry here

1225
small position starter in BAL cotton, swing,,,its an early entry so small position, 92.20

1216
ung stop hit, took profits on 75%

1210
stop 1148 on ung, tite, last 1152

1205
lim sell half ung 1162 trgt last 1150 over 1144 prev trgt

1202
 F up 1.5% today, CAT up 0.7%,,,spx up 0.45%, UNG up 2.4%

1200
CAT 3min broke higher over horiz resist, should see higher

1150
another commodotiy to consider long is cotton, via BAL etf,,,but its not ready yet imo for entry,,,watching,,,still in major correction down atm

1113
i am EXITING tlt shorts, tbt longs at breakeven here and will look to reenter later,,,other better opps exist imo,, TLT may make a run higher today

1101
slv daily trgt 4508 last 4500,,,will watch if 4508 marks hi for day or not

1059
looking for spot to add more tlt shorts or tbt long, no new entry yet,,,running with existing positino from yest, for swing

1057
ung just hit 1144 trgt,,,1165 next then 1188

1049
F just broke resist .21,,,,last .27

1048
1144   1165  1188 UNG trgts,,,1140 last

1035
UNG on the move toward 1188 trgt, buyable here at 1130,,if the spike to 1140 is not a headfake it shouold accell to next trgt 1188


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 20, 2011

Wednesday thoughts April 20

426
adjusting stop on TLT short (and tbt long) swing piece: buy to cover 94.17 stop mkt, last 92.68

416
i do remember reading something before about inaccurate time sales afterhours,,,maybe in a broker disclosure,,,

415
i'm not sure why afterhours time and sales TS are not always accurate, but they arent,,,,i just sold more tbt and it didnt post on the TS

346
TLT buy to cover short 9220 on half of shares if able

336
sso may go higher but individ stocks performing better imo

336
out sso .58 ,,

333
tite stop now sso .58

330
CAT is far outperforming SSO scalps

325
i will sell sso 5393 lim if able, marginally over todays hi

254
tbt 3min bull W

250
when a stock breaks its daily downtrend after previously being in an uptrend, the move up often sustains for a few/several days later

250
else will take the 4%ish loss

249
for better or worse, i'll hold the newly entered CAT from today long, same stop,, CAT should be able to sustain and poss even benefit from Japan,,, may make a run for 113 and a new high if 104 holds

211
sso need to hurdle over 5365 for upside,,if it gets there should accel up for scalp

208
shorting TLT 9295

143
5349 sso stop .20 could work here

130
intraday only,,,spx 3min testing resistance DTL now,,,watching for hold down or break higher

123
simple view:  daily spx broke over its daily downtrend line,  over 1315 spx bullish, under bearish, and now it can go either way but bias is up until supp breaks, risky either way imo

117
buy the dippers on silver have been more relentless than spx bull dip buyers lol

117
there goes silver down as expected,,,watching now to see if sustains or not,,,will take a few tries on slv

109
semi-agressive trade

108
tbt appears to have based on 60min and i expect a break higher of resist,,,if it doesnt perform then i'll exit and try again later

107
in 3648 TBT scalp swing combo stop 3570 for now

1159
i will UNG lim sell some at  1142 and then try to buy it back lower, if not will run with remaining shares for higher

1154
CAT broke over its 60min downtrendline, so taking a small position there with protective stop

1153
long CAT 108.15 stop 104.70

1128
last ung 1126

1128
lim sell UNG 1178 if able

1125
F broke mini supp,,may head to 1488 next, watching

1121
out of Ford 1503,,,profits taken,,,may reenter later

1503 F stop

1109
Ford F now up 3% from yest vs 1% up for spx,,, F outperforming

1106
I'm signed into my Yahoo Messenger Chat, ID is  christopherstockguy2 not christopherstockguy (forgot password for christopherstockguy on yahoo hehe)

1044
*11.11 stop not 1113

1043
trgt 1180

1042
to protect profits, have a 1113 stop on UNG, can always add more later

1028
1537 lim sell ford F

1003
imo, wait and see at this level, only will hold swing longs from lower levels, will not add here,,,took profits on half of longs,,, BAC position is a mess but still think in coming weeks will test resist,

1001
SLV is so far away from daily moving avg support that a swing correction lower is likely

957
SPY has gapped up, and has not pulled back much at all in the opening 25 minutes,,,this often results in a higher intraday hi, if it can stay over its low of day

948
still holding these: UNG up on marginal break over resist, F ford up 2%ish, CORN up 1%ish, holding all for higher swing targets

946
taking AMD off to lock profits on the gap up, from intc related semi co


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 19, 2011

Tuesday thoughts

304
CORN etf corn could breakoug higher again,, 4875 trgt, bullish dailyl

235
lim sell half of ung 1131, and other half 1179, to take profits,,,last 1114

229
Sparese comments, due to testing new software, some chillaxing time

229
Going long CORN here, 4642, stop 43.60


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 15, 2011

Weekend thoughts

The VIX today made another lower low on the daily.

This past week, I have mentioned several times that the VIX has a tendency to due this as it forms and re-forms in a bull falling wedge pattern. The pattern is bullish for the VIX (bearish for spx) but the pattern also calls for the VIX to move lower (SPX higher) before the pattern completes and finally sends VIX higher and SPX lower.

For now, the VIX remains bearish until the wedge decisively breaks higher.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".