Friday thoughts

147
74.93 interim xom target--chris

141
7520 xom may give the push to 7668 first XOM target,,,xom up 0.74% vs spy down 1% today---chris

137
Yesterday we waited all day for a bullish price low : vol diverg to form intraday and didnt get one,,,today intraday the ES does have such bullish vol diverg, suggesting that higher is poss off the 1139 supp test entry idea----chris

122
dow stronger than spx, XOM stronger than dow, partial reasoning behind XOM new swing long entry---chris

111
xom sell lim 7668 order in,,,to take profits for xom swing if filled

101
heres that 1139 es supp test===chris

1249
the last 4 days, xom has been able to make equiv daily highs, unlike spy with lower daily highs,,,also the 60min looks like it wants to go higher in order to form a bearish divergence of price:rsi,,, no bear diverg yet so higher suggested.

1248
xom "just might" break out of its daily rectangle resistance since august 15 for a move to 7675ish==chris

1246
i'm going long xom 7427 swing,,,may take profit today if it pops nicely but willing to hold longer

1225
sp500 spy spx dow agressive scalp setup may present in 6-18minutes or so--chris

1220
15min spx spy right now in middle of range,,,a higher low on 15 later today could give a buy long scalp setup,, the 60 min suggests a rallly can come, but need to use the 3min and 15min together to get the entry setup

1210
if support holds, spx may try a rally to 1173ish in coming hours days,,,hard to get a target to due extreme volatility

1209
that daily and  60min spy spx is beginning to coil triangle like has been suggested last 5 days,,,watching to see if a coil forms and then a break of the coil---CHRIS

943
out of spx short from 1200 to 1145, for 55 points profit,,,,will re-eval markets later for long or short opps swing,
4.8% SPY profit, or about
15% profit if using SPXU===chris

941
I still believe that ES will bounce before 1100 es, and begin to coil triangle on the daily---CHRIS

939
if 1133 es doesnt break i may cover the shorts and look to re-enter,,still have 1126 and 1121 es targets but this may be close enbought,,,will look to reenter bounce if support holds and does not break lower---chris

936
i will manually trail the stop lower as es moves lower to get as much profit as possible while protecting from upsurge,, but i wont post all the manual trails here to avoid clutter

935
lowering stop on spy spx shorts from 1200 to es 1141 to protect profit===chris


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

335
took profits in DOW short

329
es intraday into close having troubl,e clearing over 1144---watching that # into the close---chris

322
aapl may go higher first,,,but think the buy will be after it breaks lower, and begins to form a new base

322
imo,,,AAPL has held support on it daily uptrend line,,,but i believe it will break the trendline and form a less steep daily one, and then aapl may be buyable long,,,,will take a few days at least to form thyat setup---CHRIS

315
For S&P500, the SPY 60min and daily chart suggest waiting at least 4 mor hours before entering any long swings, and even then a long setup may not materialize,,which means waiting until tomorrow. For swing shorts,,,i'll take profits today on the DOW and keep the SPY shorts overnite...CHRIS

257
DIA short---stop set 110.57 dia to cover shorts to protect profit in case surges higher,,,holding for now, and will manually trail the stop lower for the dow short from yest,,,still holding the spx swing shorts with looser stop===CHRIS

254
here is that retest of lows that lack of volume diverg intraday was suggesting,,,watching reactions here,,,may get signals to cover shorts or scalp quick long,,no signal yet,,tho i wont take the scalp long only the cover short setup---CHRIS

248
1:01 PM 386/387 trgt for aapl was hit,, 1:01 pm posting suggested 386/387 aapl will likely hold on first test if it moves there--hit 386.38 and bounce to 391ish,,,watching if 386 can continue to hold further tests or not----CHRIS

245
maybe the next pullback on ES SPY 3min chart will suggest covering shorts or long scalp,,,no setup yet imo for either---chris

231
still no bull vol diverg intraday,,,waiting---chris

226
on daily,,,bears still have not broken the rectangle, tho the flag is broken,,,we could still get the higher low coil pattern on daily---chris

223
watching if dow breaks yesterdays low convinvingly,,,SP500 may not find support until dow gets lower, to 10930 ---10850ish area

216
 if DOW breaks here,,,SPY could hit its target #1 today--chris

215
still no intraday bull vol diverg,,,so a bounce will likely retest again lower intraday, tho maybe to a hgier low,,,still bearish intraday atm----CHRIS

213
DOW is now very near yest low,,,,watching reaction here,,,,---chris

210
AAPL is now on its daily trendline,,,so trendline support rite here, not horiz support...392 did break as expected earlier today---chris

209
es just hit the 1141 trgt,  1140.25 last---chris

207
DIA dow is right at its gap support now,,,yest gap support was broken so watching reactions here---chris

205
sp500 and ES may find support when DOW hits yesterdays low,,not there yet===chris

202
watching for possibility taking partial profits on swing shorts (will still hold some swing),,,no entry yet, but is possible that charts change today , that a bull volume diverg develops, and a bounce comes,,,waiting for now---CHRIS

156
while under 1153 ES,,, es and sp500 v bearish, imo,,,,and 15min charts "needs" several more bars candles---chris

155
while under 1153 ES,,, es and sp500 v bearish, imo

154
15min and 60min still say "hold swing shorts" imo----chris

153
,,i shouldve added more qqq and spx shorts yesterday instead of dow shorts,,,thought dow would falter but qqq fell harder,,,,but dow shorts are still profitable so its all good

149
even a bounce to 115.75 on spy would not invalidiate,imo==chris

146
SPY is now testing its prior low, so stall here makes sense,,,if that low breaks then 113.80--114.20ish spy target,,last 115.03

144
1141ish es may stall,,,watching reactions if gets to that trgt----chris

139
this is what happens when there is no bull volume divergence, the rally intraday fizzles--chris

139
INTC hanging by a thread but officially still over its .20 support,,,watching as its pennies away now on the test--chris

134
1141 es trgt, simply prior low==chris

133
sell program alert here at ES near the lows,,,79% confid

131
watching to see if DOW catches up to SP500 ,,,dow been stronger thus far today===chris

101
386/387 aapl will likely hold on first test if it moves there---chris

1245
return to support test here ---candles on 3min are too big,,not small candle descent,,,moderate volume,,suggesting support can break lower,,,watching reactions---chris

1240
last 2 hours is consolodation i mentinoed b4, often continues one more time in prior direction intraday ,,,in this case lower,,watching if support holds or breaks to a lower low===chris

1237
for now, aapl and intc still over 391 and 20.20

1237
moving lower here on ES<,,still no signif es bull volume diverg on this move,---chris

1213
suggests lower prices under 1160,,,even a lower low intraday

1213
still no bullish volume diverg intraday, actually is bearish vol diverg on 15min but thats normal during 11am--1pm,,,still see same support and resist levels--chris

1123
imo aapl may be related to amazon kindle fire,,,but the daily had a bear diverg on it,,,think its more the technicals and its meteoric rise and strength in the face of multiple SPX downturns the last several weeks...CHRIS

1110
SPY spx up .78% vs intc up .25%,, and intc is resting on its support now, daily candle intc

1109
INTC chart has now turned weaker than spx,,,watching intc, which has been strong lately, now weakening,--chris

1101
no bulllish price:volume diverg intraday on es sp500 yet on 3min chart--chris

1053
ES testing 1153 micor resist now...watching reaction---chris

1049
under 1153, intraday ...is extremely bearish,,,tho es may climb over it---chris,,,with prior support levels 1160-63 now resist levels

1048
failure to bounce on es to 1153 would be v bearish ,,last 1150.50===chris

1044
INTC still holding up tho,,,chris

1031
aapl perfect test of the 392 supp....hit 391.90 and bounced on first try as expected,,,but the 392 looks breakable after some work,,,will watch for aforementioned consolod---CHRIS

1036
ES may want the 1125 area and a bounce, to begin to coil inside the rectangel as mentinoed yesterday,,,bounce poss there to another lower hi,,on daily---chris

1032
also watching INTC 22.20 support to see if it tests and holds, 22.41 last intc, over its support,,,if intc breaks support, and aapl down, and finan weak, bearish on spx qqq dow

1032
a stall on the first test of aapl supp is likely, mini bounce,,,watching reactions of consolodation if we get that--CHRIS

1031
aapl approaching 390-392 area,last 392.50,,,v v impt test of supp imo==chris

1027
poss we consolodate for next 1-2 hours, chop,,,depending on if it wants ping pong in the intraday range---watch INTC also----red aapl bad for qqq spy dow

1024
1160 es support zone holding,,but its micro intraday support,,,so can break lower more easily--watching reactions in the support zone now===chris

1019
with other support levels in aapl down to 384,, mid term aapl bullish unless 384 breaks but not valid for new long entries here imo

1019
aapl 392 support,,,still very impt # imo,,,same as last several days support level, for aapl and also qqq spy----CHRIS

1005
1160--1163 ES micro supp area intraday,,, if that breaks,,,downnnnnnnn

1003
ES struggled at 1166 and now turnign down,,,watching to see if sustains, still biased to down imo---chris

933
watching the first 30min of trading,,,ES resist still holding atm,,,===chris


918
ES is now right at resistance, looking for it to turn  lower, from 1166 if R holds, else 1178 trgt higher on break over it,,bias is lower atm

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

357
look at spx daily chart, and spy,,,spy now has  a lower daily high and is beginning to coil bearishly within the rectangel...this 2 day selloff below the prior resistance is troublesome for spx,,imo---chris

355
covering a piece of dow short for 155 points profit,,holding rest overnite---chris

340
might cover some of the dow shorts b4 close, will def keep others overnight,,,dropped 100 points since entry--will see what it does into close---

336
 tomorrow may be too early to go long gold,,,will be watching charts---

333
10,851 DOW target for new swing short,,,similar to 114 spy i believe, will continue to hold 1200spx shorts with looser stop than dow---CHRIS

328
spx dow-intraday---tested breakpoint resist perfectly then backed off---is why i set a tight stop to enter short below mkt right as resist tested, in case it broke higher instead,,,was filled just under resist

323
DOW may fall harder than spx if the stronger stocks like INTC pull back tomorrow,,,,CHRIS

321
DXD is 2x equiv to shorting DIA, but imo one gets better fills on DIA (also on spy vs sh spxu sds)===chris

316
shorted dow 11,155 for swing,,,---chris

311
may see 1169 spx today---cjhris,,,

308
theres the 1161 spike on ES,,,still see lower poss coming days---chris

252
1162 spike possible, ES----chris

235
poss bounce intraday,,,muted reaction thus far as the support zone is holding ES....nimble both ways--CHRIS,,, still watching reactions in the last 90 min of trading

206
intraday shorts makes sense to tighten stops on half of shares,,,imo,,chris

157
using manual trailing stop on shorts,,,wont clutter the room with all updates,,,will keep 25% of shorts with higher stops near breakeven (swing)---chris

155
es just hit 1156 target---chris,,,

135
1160.25 stop on half es shorts,,,holding rest higher stop--chris

133
if 1150 es breaks, watch out below,,,tho expecting a hold on first test in 1155/50 area---chris

132
1163.25 es mental stop

127
looks dangerous for spx, for next few hours ,,,esp under the resist---chris

126
es 1162 holding for now,,,if it breaks lower will be interesting to see reaction: muted or intense?----still see lower, under resist still0000----will quickly invalidate if resist breaks higher---chris

122
need to be careful,,,low vol today---chris

120
nervous intraday shorts might set stop 1166/67,,agressive might wait longer---chris

115
still bear bias intraday imo,,,while under the resist---chris

114
this is v impt intraday supp test here on spx es imo,,,watching carefully---break of supp gives the lower trgts,,,chris

112
if using GLD, i'm looking at 254--162 range but will wait till tomorrow prob to see if 154 breaks lower,,,if so i'll wait longer,,,maybe buy on a break over 163---chris

110
 gold,,,imo needs at least abnother 4 hours b4 long entry for swing---chris

1251
1163-1177 range on ES,,, a break of one of those higher or lower will likely give more in the direction of the break--chris

1244
multi-week "real" support on aapl is 378-385,,over that its still healthy,,,but 392 break will likely cause chop for aapl---chris

1242
AAPL has been able to hold over 392,,,watch 392 aapl in coming horus days,,,if it goes under 392,,, QQQ and SPX may fall hard,,,no suggestion now that aapl will break under 392, but watching==CHRIS

1231
the last several weeks now, the pros have been reliably tipping their hand in the final hour of trading,,,,for swings i've been making decisions in the 3-4pm timeframe for new entries,,,fwiw---CHRIS

1229
tho charts say wait until 130pm corn reactions

1228
ZC corn futures, or CORN etf, have moved lower but i believe that corn is basing for long swing opp,,,i may add to existing long swing ===chris

1224
the 15 and 30 min spx charts are battling here, seeing which one wins higher or lower,,,my bias still lower for now, esp while under the ES intraday resist, but that could change===CHRIS

1214
ES hit 1174 (1173/75 add more shorts area) and has retreated :)

1135
81%--chris

1132
sell alert ES at 78% confid===chris

1127
if ES claws to 1173/75 area, may be able to add shorts---chris

1109
1158 1159 first trgt if it breaks, es,,,b4 the 1155 intraday==chris

1106
intraday if 1163 doesnt break lower by 1127am, could go higher---=chris,,,
 trgt is to break in 9 minutes

1102
short es here 1166,,or 1860 spxu could work

1050
around 11:03 AM,,11:06 poss scalp entry short es may setup

1049
under 1171 es, bearish intraday imo--chris

1047
still holding the long term spx 1200 short, for under 1100 spx eventually

1039
sell alert for es 1155 tgt from 1165 es

1036
yes es tested its 1163 support area, may retest and break,,watching reactions==chris

1034
intraday ES stil bearish for another 12 minutes==4 more bars on the 3min==CHRIS

1023
watching next 4 bars on the ES 3min,,,bearish for lower low intraday atm,,,===CHRIS


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

1237
As expected yesterdeay, the Russel has started to catch up to SPX and it is outperforming SP500 today.  IWM russel is up 3.72% vs SPY up 2.25%,,, TNA russel up 10.9% vs UPRO spx up 6.89 %

922
Corn futures ZC are up nicely this morning at 662.50 from the 646/648 entry add more longs signal given yesterday, or about 2.5% roi atm, which should benefit the CORN etf

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Mon thoughts

358
nice rally intraday off of that higher low----CHRIS

232
if i enter, would basically be buying back the shares that i took profits on earlier today, exccept at a lower price

232
still forming a higher low on 60min chart,,,i might re-enter long swing again in qqq tna upro etc,,,,unsure atm-

207
into the 2pm hour,,,as expected, ZC corn futures broke over 649 with 653 next intraday target, and much higher swing targets ...last 650.50,,,(or CORN etf)

127
CORN or ZC futures 3min close over 649 should give 653 test, then higher than 653 swing, 647 last

126
,tricky,,,if a higher daily low forms,,could go for a higher hi
rite now,,a higher low forming

124
es trying to break 3min trendline here,,, a pb might be buyable scalp, not there yet,,,imo---CHRIS
first try usually gives a pb

109
this is the # of bars i was waiting to pass for poss long scalp,,,,watch 3min for poss base and move higher, or a break of 3min DTL and buy pb,,,,no entries yet,, tho i will probably pass on this scalp,,,waiting longer for poss swing entries long or short to hold overnite instead

1215
that scalp long russel or es would present if 3min starts to base with smaller candles ,,,or on break over 3min DTL and then mini pb to enter, in next 3-12 bars, but i'm not takint it,,,be back later

1209
tho 60min russel says "buy 15min pb one more time one more pop" imo, but not here,, i'm not going to take the trade idea since i'm leaving for awhile now

1204
Additional longs on CORN 43.20 here or 650 /ZC futures seem good, for swing hold 2-20 days,, waiting a bit could give a better entry lower, or buy the breakout, but in general the 650 looks good here.... 649 last.

1148
thats from fridays tna entry

1147
out of tna 35.60 from 34.17 for 4%+ profit

1147\
took tna profits hjere

1145
raised, stop 1141ish==chris

1143
can always buy back on pb

1142
tightening stop on TNA,,,near 1135ish ES to exit if under 1135ish==CHRIS

927pm
TNA up nicely here at 35.69 from 34.17 entry on Friday or almost 4.5%.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

429
WOW the TNA shot up 1.6---1/8% so took profit on half of position bought this afternoon,,still selling AH in this area==CHRIS

351
in tna 34.17

347
if i dont post sooner, i'm making the tades 3:53--3:58 timeframe==CHRIS

327
will still take a long in qqq typ tna for short term trade

325
changed my mind,,, will cover only the DOW and IWM shorts,,,keeping the SPX 1200 shorts for swing,, think we see a bounce short term,,,then lower long term,,,

318
about 4 bars on 3min passed,,,still need 3-4 more to decide

310
between now and the close, i will cover the DOW shorts to lock profits,  and reverse long the QQQ or QLD TYP to hold overnite for monday

306
if it doesnt break here, may need another 5-7 bars on 3min, which may tell us direction into close

305
as usual,,,1122 ES held the first test,,,a second test will likely break it lower==chris

259
still watching for that poss 3min intraday close under es 1120

258
last spx 1131,,good for shorts

258
still keeping the spx shorts swing from 9/15 at 1200 spx for now, IWM from 71.23 (half),,,and DOW 10750 from yest. i will take profits on DOW today, unsure if holding the russel and spx over weekend===CHRIS

241
next 6 bears 3min es bearish sideways imo, esp under 1128/1130==chris

229
1126.25 on ES to cover es shorts only for 10-11 pints,,,still have the DOW 11750 shorts with same stop over yest hi on DIA

229
watching reactions here es 1125--122,, holding half shorts from 1136 still,,,and dow 10750 short swing,,,==CHRIS

212
took off half of that last short for quick 6 points profit

205
shorted at ES 1134

135
if they can get it over yest highs on DIA (with a little wiggle room higher) I'll get stopped out of shorts and will re-eval. for now, im waiting to see if they can force a break higher

114
15min spy can push the 60min stoch back under 20,,,didnt really visit under 20 for v long-CHRIS

113
15min chart suggests that it may need another 2 bars to "really move" imo,,tho in this volatile mkt can happen anytinme,,,

111
intraday moves, watch for es close under 1120 on 3min chart,,,15min chart suggesting to short the 3min rallies==CHRIS

107
sell program alert just triggered on es,,,78% confidence atm==CHRIS

1239
15min and Daily charts suggest lower SPX ES SPY DIA dow etc,,, last ES 1127,,,, the 15min is suggesting a pb in the 60min charts if es 1123/1120 breaks lower, 15min suggests that it will break but awaiting confirmation

1232
notice the 15min DIA (dow) is a little weaker than the SPY (spx)....hower highs on DIA vs equiv highs on SPY,, one reason i chose DIA over SPY for short

1142
still holding "one night short" for target mentinoed before, using stop just over yesterdays high,,,for DIA stop 107.90--108.20 area for example===CHRIS

1008
1100--1102 first trgt for ES short from 1127, last 1120.5, to take 50-100% of position if hit

950
DOW 10750,,es 1127 shortable here imo,,same spot we shorted yest at close==chris

929
I'm preparing to take profits on the DOW short from yesterday at the close, not covering yet, not covering pre-market as I did yesterday, still see lower spx es qqq and dow, tho they may rally before or after

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

359
10750 dow i'm short,,to cover tomorrow--CHRIS

354
shorting the dow on the close of this 1min bar, overnite 1 day hold===CHRIS

348
still waiting to add shorts,,,will add soon,,,within next 9 minutes====chris

331
this "swing" to short todays close, is a one day swing,,so using DOW instead,will exit tomorrow,,,other shorts are longer term holds,, no entry yet but whatever the price, i will short between now and 3:58 PM,,,trying to let it bounce here

322
spx bear flag broken, trgt now 1103 spx ===chris

309
charts suggest MORE selling tomorrow, I am awaiting a bounce to short the shares that I took profit on earlier today, will short the DOW not spx this time, i will hold the shorts overnight,,,if this is a loss and it rallies tomorrow, then the loss should still be less than todays gain (much less)==CHRIS

1015
looking to re-short INTC swing again, not today tho, needs several hours, few days first prob

1014
aapl could fall to 385/390 and may then be buyabale long again for swings (not today),,,would need to see chart when gets there,,,IF it starts to base again,,,aapl 444 is still target, 406 last down from 422 yest----CHRIS

929
I took profits on INTC SPX shorts pre-market,,,will look to reload shorts or maybe longs later

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".