Wednesday, November 30, 2011

Wedn thoughts

414
covering shorts on VXX from 50.00 around 4143--4145ish afterhours, for half the position, 20%ish profits,,, XIV would be 40%---CHRIS

409
but still holding half of HAL, sold half for 14% profit===CHRIS

408
i'm out of the uso,,,breakeven/ few cents profit or loss,,will look for other opps later---chris

345
out of half of hal at .67---chris

341
.61 stop---ok i will stop posting all this now--just manually trailing it tite as each new trgt hit--chris

340
.61 trgt next hal=chris

338
new HAL highs,, .46 stop

336
HAL overshot its 930 AM target by a few cents, and hasnt moved over it since,,wouldve been easier to just have kept the initial limit order LOL--chris

331
either HAL makes new daily highs or i'm taking profits on half--chris

331
stop .38 HAL==chris

327
HAL a few cents from high of day,,may make higher hi--chris

326
raising stop on half o HAL to 3619, tighter--chris

237
i will take profits on half of HAL before close, even if profit stop is not hit--chris

236
HAL now moving up to likely retest its high of day--chris

225
uso needs to be over 3880 in 9 minutes, last 3884==chris

224
loosening stop on oil uso temp==chris

219
uso .77 add,,,==chris

203
uso,,looking for .80ish to hold now --CHRIS

202
Came within 4 cents of USO stop, but it held, not stopped out,, 3882 last from 3871 drop (3867 stop),,may look to exit/re-enter

1253
over uso 3907 gives 3950 scalp trgt--chris

1249
over 101.12 oil,,it could pop nicely, last 100.83,,,needs to hold the support zone tho--chris

1248
oil looking like a spring setup,,watching, if these 3min candles continue

1243
100.50--100.70 oil support area--chris

1241
3893 in uso,,,chris

1238
now: uso above 3897 buy--chris

1225
OIL via USO above mkt buy stop 3904 could work with tite stop at 38.67,,,if willing to let yourself be stopped on loss and buy again lower--chris

1224
the next pullback on 3min oil chart may present a long opp, per the daily 60 and 15min charts, tho 15min suggests waiting

1151
nice 15min bull pennant (stronger than a flag) on HAL, if it holds,,,stops under support--CHRIS

1128
today, HAL is much stronger than DIG 2x etf, and DIG is now near its 60min support, so watching HAL for poss test of its support,,,,HAL must hold--CHRIS,,need to watch if the sector drags HAL lower

1123
looking for HAL to hold over 35.40--35.60 area,  if supp violated will take profits and look for reentry, last 36.03 up 7.5% today---CHRIS

1102
that SPY bull morn star candles and MACD hist PpP mentioned yesterday certainly played out with a huge surge higher==CHRIS

954
will sell HAL if oil hits 102.80 today,,,the correllation is not 1:1 between OIL: HAL or OIL:DIG as it is for OIL:USO==CHRIS

951
took AAP profits on half of positino,,will buy back lower--CHRIS

949
HAL just hit 36.49 or 2 cents over the 930am target of 3647==CHRIS

947
if stopped on AAP, i will take profits, and buy it back again lower, still see higher aap--chris

944
6872 stop on AAP

944
removing the .43 HAL lim sell and will manually trail tightly the stop instead, last 3637==CHRIS

943
3619 hal,,,considering the .23 trgt hit,,,seeing if it gets .47 next---now up 8% today==CHRIS

939
HAL stops tightened, and have limit order at 36.23/36.49 if it gets there by 1030am==CHRIS

935
3623 next HAL trgt if it can hold over 35.20

934
LOL overshot while typing--chris

932
HAL approaching 35.48 trgt, last 35.30,,expecting poss overshoot,will watrch reactions--CHRIS

918
i believe that actions at 940am,,1000am, and 1030am are important==CHRIS

903
Yesterday I posted a SPY 122.70 target, last SPY 123.65, well above target 1 and near the 122.85 second target,,,,will watch reactions in this .65---.85 area

OIL hit and exceeded its 101 target, still see possibly 103 and 107 and 109,,,watching reactions as it hits each target, for continuation higher or reversal lower.

902
atm theres a huge gap up opening: ES futures are trading up 3%,  HAL trading pre-market up 4.5% and up 11% from initial trgt entry,,,waiting for 930am to see AAP action, might make sense to take profits on half within the first hour,,,will watch reactions and trail the stops


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, November 29, 2011

Tues thoughts

357
hal 3365--watching to see if it moves up 30 cents into close--chris

352
that agg scalp didnt work--chris

350
agress scalp setup long es 1196.50 here 1194.75 stop into close==chris

346
currently ES over 1195, so bullish for 15min-chris

345
the candle pattern gives 1195 as the pivot into the close--CHRIS

341
with this candle pattern, not because its 3:41pm==chris

341
this 3min candle often determines the direction of the close, in this setup--chris

337
AAP may be waking up here,,watching for resist breaks higher--chris

328
1198 es still support into close imo--chris

327
for swings, over 6800 AAP should give the next 1 or 2 higher swing targets---6750 last,,,no change in HAL, still hovering near its highs up 3.3% from yest ==CHRIS

326
i'll keep half at breakeven, half at the tighter trail stop--chris

325
119775 new es stop--chrisd
may not be able to post all new stops due to speed of last hour--

322
 1198 new micro micro supp--chris

314
theres 1198 trgt, and broke higher,,,trailing the stop==CHRIS

313
need to keep close watch into close,since large moves can happen in last 1 hour==chris

312
mental stop 1195, needs to move higher now else risk lower brk of 1194 es==chris

304
over 1194 ES bullish imo,into close--CHRIS

258
now 3 min ES needs higher high candle, as stoch re-enters 80, and needs rsi 14 over 57, for bullish--chris

256
1198.25 above the mkt ES, should pop up higher--chris

254
tite stop 1194 if scalping....looser for more aggressive, for free ride higher if sotp holds==CHRIS

253
needs to be good for 3 candles on 3min to stay valid==chris

252
long here scale in 1195 es could work--into close--chris

250
ES intraday 1194 micro support...watching that level first--for into the close clues

245
15min ES suggesting higher, that next 3min pb is buyable if presents, imo--CHRIS

241
HAL 3min intraday chart--poss bull W, dbl bot, near its high of day now---CHRIS

237
oil going for its retest of 100 again now==chris

142
considering short at 122.70 SPY are if it gets up there (not today), last 120.29

133
SPY will has a bull morning star reversal candle pattern, a close today over yest hi would confirm the pattern, for candle followers (diff than macd hist setup)--CHRIS

HAL has the same

124
intraday buy program signal at 73% confid,,needs 78-80% to move, at es 1197===chris

1240
over 9850, oil is bullishj imo

1240
oil hit the 100 trgt and backed off as expectred---watching now the extent of decline, and if it makes another run for 100/101 ==chris

1229
still have 103 and 109 oil targets, same as last several days

1229
watching HAL when oil CL gets to 100, last HAL 3407, CL=9986, oil resist 1 at 100,,tho i think it will break higher after stall--chris

1218
AAP continues to lag, but still holding that swing longer--chris

1216
HAL hit the 34.01 trgt--watching reactions here---with ES under 1202 and Oil CL still under its resist, its favorable for HAL imo--HAL now up 3.78% from yest

1200
60min ES now has a possiible modified morphed bull 5 methods continuation candle pattern, using 7-8 candles not 5, similar to the midnight--4pm candle setup

1156
for those that follow macd hist bullish PpP, on SPY, yesterday the setup fired, and it needs a close today over yesterdays high to confirm it,,the setup suggests more upside in coming days for those that follow it,,, personally i just use it as one of many tools, not standalone==CHRIS

1142
hal 3391 is prior daily support that turned resist when the daily supp broke lower==CHRIS

1141
major resist test here on HAL at 33.91 now==watching reactions==CHRIS

1137
HAL 3477 hurdeled, 3401 next trgt, over that HAL can sail, now up 3.2% from yest---CHRIS

1129
still watching for HAL to get over 3377, last 3371---getting close==CHRIS

1029
AAP continues to lag spx today up .6% vs .9%, but the daily AAP is v strong and resisted/held during vicious spx downside==CHRIS

1027
HAL now up 2.7% vs spx SPY .91%==CHRIS

1026
threre it is,, HAL has broken, tho needs 3377 to sustain any higher,,,still see higher--last .68==CHRIS

1020
heres the test: HAL at 3360 prior high.,...es 1202==CHRIS

1018
OIL and SPX resist still a bit higher, while HAL at its resist early--CHRIS

1016
if HAL tests its yest hi and ES is under 1204, HAL may break higher on the first try--CHRIS

1013
llooking for HAL to test yesterdays high, and eventual break over it after poss stall==chris

1010
15min chart imo suggests waiting at least 4 candles b4 short,,up bias until then--,,even then i have no plan to short unless charts look diff--chris

955
HAL halburton is outperforming the spx this morn, hal up 1.5% vs .40% spy, DIG (related to HAL) also outperforming==CHRIS

949
AAP volume is very lite atm, still see next higher trgt

948
Oil futures CL and USO etf are on the move up, toward higher targets. last CL oil 99.18

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, November 25, 2011

Friday thoughts

1228
added aap 6692 area--chris

1200
AAP in a multimonth uptrend, and has held up very well despite spx carnage--chris

1155
i'm not trading options on AAP, but options viablity analysis and timing analysis suggests that AAP calls could work, it could make a nice move in the next 1-5 days, with possibly in 2 days (in addition to the multi-week hold swing timeframe).

1149
I will probably add today to my mid=term swing hold in AAP, showing "continue uptrend" setups on daily and 60min chart, with targets at 70/71/75, last 67.38==CHRIS

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, November 23, 2011

Wede thoughts

1105
AAP continues to show strength despite SPX weakness. AAP up 0.30% vs SPY down 1.66%.  I may add to AAP long today, but waiting, since it may want lower first.  last 67.13.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, November 21, 2011

Monday thoughts

332
DIG targets 44, 49, 55, last 41.18,,,similar for XOM--chris

327
determining targets for RAI a bit tricky given new 52 week highs today, but targeting 4200-4300 area. Last 4067, up 1.5%ish vs spx down 2%ish.... AAP also up a little also today

257
DIG and XOM look interesting here long swing

239
OIL, uso, has bounced of its daily midpoint Boll Band line, and now moving higher.,,,,still in daily uptrend and may make new highs in coming days.  Poss oil futures CL 110.

216
RAI just made a new 52 week high!  Tho its marginally higher than its prev 52 week high made just a few days ago, so watching reactions as the 52 week hi is tested. still see higher RAI, esp if spx bounces.

213
AAP also showing amazing strength, AAP is also green now, up 0.25% vs SPX down 2%

956
WOW Reynolds (RAI) continues to show amazing strength this morning; it is actually UP higher 0.5% despite the vicsious gap down in the Dow, which is down over 200 points

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, November 18, 2011

Friday thoughts

337
vix also hit its targets yest,,v high yest,,why i exited tvix and vxx yest,,tvix hit 6400 trgt from week ago--that was fun,,,50.00 to 62.00 tvix swing

333
VIX down 6% vs SPY flat==chris,, careful short, SPX may catch up to vix by higher spx

319
VIX looks like 4 hours more bearish sideways pattern imo==CHRIS

316
AAP which I bought this morning had a bullish harami yest (daily chart) that is confirmed today, tho thats not why i bought it---but gives a picture---chris

258
still in RAI, stop was .63,,,low today .67, survived by 4 cents last 40.13--chris

254
technically imo the 60min and daily chart of RAI look strong, it has held up during the vicious spx downside, also notice that 60min 14,3,3 stoch have gone from 80 to 20, with only a small decline, a sign of strength,,,while the rsi stayed over 50 despite the stoch decline,,, macd hist on 60min is moving higher, daily macd hist and macd are bullish, daily stoch is over 80 but can stay there longer---CHRIS

253
60min RAI reynolds inc: bull flag, ==CHRIS
 its trying to break higher today on the flag

201
took profit,,uso stop hit .64,,,last .55,,,may buy back later---chris

156
stop 3764 uso for a free ride higher, or 14 cents small lil profit if stopped--chris

154
oil creeping higher,,3727 raising uso stop raised again,,,chris

133
still have RAI   AAP   RIMM  USO

132
still holding the new oil long (reverse from short cover) with stop in place, watching reactions here, trying to bounce==chris

1247
oil 15min charts have sideways up bounce bias for next 3-4 candles, if this pattern plays out, in CL and USO===chris,,but keeping stop tite since oil can make fast vicious moves either way--chris

1233
changed lil lower to 3713 stop for now, uso---chris

1232
in uso 3750 stop 3722==chris

1221
over 3750/3800ish USO oil long opp may present, just idea, no entries, re-entry short instead could also present, staying on the sidelines for now----chris

1218
oil long may actually present an opp, on sidelines for now==chris

1217
out of sco for now,,,will eval re-entry later,,,being cautious,,oil may want $109 later--chris

1210
4088 stop sco

1209
took off half sco, other half tite stop now,,can always re-enter--chris

1206
4110 trgt considered hit, 4108 last, sco---chris

1200
4090--4110ish sco next resist trgt

1157
sco watching 4022 sco support, may exit on break under that, but hard stop set lower in case of fast decline---CHRIS

1155
3963 raised sco stop again, last 40.55===chris

1134
rasising stop again on SCO to 39.34, last 40.18

1050
newly enetered AAP making new daily highs, to fill gap==chris

1031
RAI still barely over its stop, i will not change the stop, but holding up despite SPX weakness---chris

1012
3963 same stop on rai from yest, 3979 last, may get stopped out. i still like RAI but if stop hit, i'll take the small loss and look to re-enter again later---chris

1010
3888 stop raised on sco (bear oil etf 2x), if stopped out will re-eval,, looking for confirm today of bull eve star on sco (bearish for oil)==chris

955
stop 6639 on AAP advance auto parts=chris

954
long aap 6750, swing==chris

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, November 17, 2011

Thurs thoughts

352
rimm part 2 added 1851==chris

321
Long in RAI reynolds 40.04. stop 39.63.

1244
added sso 4350, buy #2

1203
the 4 hour bearish period from last nite 355pm on spx is close to expiring,,,watching reactions now,,may base and bounce---chris

1145
sco (etf to short oil) has a bullish sco morning star daily reversal higher pattern, higher sco, lower oil---chyris

1143
may see 2 more up candles, the side, 3min chart==chrtis

1141
sso approaching trgt 1 now 4500,,,watching reactrions here===chris

1135
next 4 candles on es 3min chart impt==watching,,,should have a bullish bias for continuatino of pattern validity--chris

1131
4500 sso trgt b4 tthe 4547==chris

1129
i have order for 4547 lim sell sso if it hits there==chris,,,may need to exit lower, all depends on charts

1126
3min candle pattern for es sso scalp spx playing out, for now, watching--chris

1120
next 4 candles on 3min ES sideways bias, then 4 after that bullish, if this pattern plays out---chris

1109
i was filled right at the 3min candle low of .56,,,looking for higher sso now

1108
on the daily, looks like rimmm broke resist 1 and tested resist 2 and is now pulling back to support zones==chris

1106
sso 44.56 i will go long if it hits there

1104
rimm still has a 2 hour bearish bias tho, so could move lower first==chris

1056
watching next 3 to 6 candles on 3min ES chart===sideways,,may present long scalp opp==chris

1053
1240 and 1246 trgt,==chris

1049
es tested 1236 again,,,it will likely break it higher--1233 last

1034
if ES tests 1236 it will likely break it higher--chris

959
the daily ES triangle is too sloppy to be a coil, may also be a desc triangle instead--chris

956
my charts from yest 355pm are still on 4 hour sideways bear bias as posted, but not spot for new shorts imo,,after 4 period or within may base and bounce===chris,,, yest the charts suggested lower today but they also didn't look right, not all confirmations were in place, so didnt short yest close unfortunately===chris

951
5920 finally exited last half of tvix from 50.00 for 9.20 or 18% profit last few days===chris,, it may go higher, to original 60.00 and 62/62 trgts, but took profits, can always reload later,,,a vxx short opp may even present instead==chris

939
rimm is a swing: trgts 2014, 2140, 2388==chris, charts suggest higher rimm imo, also market maker reports suggest accumulation

933
long RIMM 19.16==chris

928
Swing Oil short at 102.50 (CL futures price) could work if it gets back up there. last 101.14

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".