Wednesday Ramblings

347
1772 bac....better hold 1767....

330
this was a headfake up here


methinks... should go lower
 
325
bears need a vix close over 1877 and 20.02... not today

324
FAZ is rocking....glad i loaded up on it earlier a few times

323
1773 bac...watching that impt impt 1767

318
BAC volume is reallllllllly low today and still cant hold higher prices

315
vix just gapped up on the 4min chart, intraday gaps are more rare

305
still have lots of shares in faz, kept buying them today near 1335ish

303
faz stall 1349 expected, large port taking 25% shares off for profit, small port keeping half, profit on half... 1% profit locked

252
Bulls need to hold 1767 BAC if it gets there ,,,, very very impt for them else 1750 1730 next

244
BAC selll prgm too

240
vix moving up....

230
still valid faz for me,,,just watching for possible shift

228
considering closing FAZ...not yet but possible... 1333 last

221
they spiked it to 1170.50 and didnt cause buying, rather it was sold into, for now,,, on that buy program -- intraday not swing

219
i like short BAC 17.93 if able...last 1789

217
BAC selling starting now here,,,sell prgm

213
nervous faz would exit now at breakeven,, i remain in the FAZ

212
faz trade still valid....despite last pop down...for now

209
software suggests possible headfake on last move up to run stops.... ES last 1170

202
FAZ trade still valid, for now,,,

151
BAC and FAS have more buying than selling today, so watching these shorts....

150
vix 3min bull flag invalidated...last vix 1740

140
looks like vix wants 1765 from 1750

133
VIX over 1740 is bulllish,,last 1745

133
3min bull flag in VIX

130
at breakeven here,,,,for daytrade piece 1335 1334

130
FAZ daytrade premise still valid...not exiting.. at breakeven here,,,,

125
12.58 FAZ on 60min = 667 on SPX daily

125
LOL the 60min FAZ chart right now looks similar to spx 2008 -2009 chart.... not tradeable of course,,,,just noticing

116
buying more faz,,, same price 1335,,,just adding to existing daytrade,,, trade still valid so adding

110
faz right at R here...stall expected... 1338 R

101
doubling shares in faz...more at 1335

1253
MORE FAZ 1334...this one for daytrade not swing

1249
vix continues up... suggests lower ES spx in coming minutes... last ES 1169

1235
VIX trying to move up here...last 1737....

957
vix holding ok..should be good for puts shorts

9:55
faz 1363 here could
work...

949

FAZ from yest 1358 vs 1377,,, profit now at 1.3%, not taking profits yet in small port, holding

944
1777 and 1794 targets next for vix...last 1773

944
vix trying to breakhigher here at R...bullish vix charts intraday,,,,1770 last

940
1769 is R for VIX...close to testing it here,, 1763 last

9:21
I'm testing new software again today so comments might be sparse. But I'll post any trades here.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

daytrades, 2 days

Click on the chart for a larger, clearer view

Click on the chart for a larger, clearer view

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Added more QQQQ studies / analysis

In the post below this one, I added more QQQQ studies / analysis: Money Flow, DMI/ADX, AccDis,

Charts below are 60 minute not daily, so reflect a "swing" perspective not long-term.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

QQQQ in coil, expecting downside after chop

Notes are on the chart itself below. Charts below are 60 minute not daily, so reflect a "swing" perspective not long-term.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday ramblings

 
3:45

first faz swing target 14.48 in coming days, last 13.52

0339
 if 3min bear HS keeps forming in BAC, will not get the 1798 but rather it would break lower

0337
will short BAC again at 1798 limit if able, last 1781,, prob will not get filled

0135

long faz 1358, for swing /daytrade

0132
limit buy faz 1354 if able. last 1357. for swing not only just daytrade

0126

loss on fas 1%

0125
out of FAS 9587... loss of 1%

1259
If stopped out, SMN would be a 1/2% loss.... don't want to stick around for poss test of LOD

1258
smn stop 6.97,,,, will re-enter later if stopped out

1254
nervous fas could exit here breakeven,,, i'm still in for daytrade, will not allow FAZ profits from earlier to be exceeded tho..daytrade only fas

1245
here is expected move up in FAS now..watching,,may need to exit fast

1242
charts suggest bounce in the xlf first, then down, to me at this minute.. fas last 9653

1233
i should have entered on my earlier setup at 9623 fas but hesitated....in now tho

1233

going long FAS 9653

1215
bias is down, but yesterday made a good recovery up from lows,,,,so watching....

1219
very hard to tell right now which way BAC XLF will go in next few minutes hours.... watching both sides.... i have a daytrade long warning to enter long xlf fas but am not taking it for now....waiting watching

1141
*sold at 13.58 for 2.1% profit on this piece, 1.75% profit on first piece, can always buy back

1140
selling all faz 1758 small port

1137
1770 has broken....watching to see if holds...that was crucial # for bac... xlf new LOD, FAZ new HOD :)

1133
BAC testing 1770 now...the very very impt #....1755ish next if 1770 breaks

1127
BAC under 1782 is very bearish ...last 1777

1126
usually holds on first test but watching to see how high it bounces, if it does bounce

1125
bac testing LOD again..watcing to see if holds or breaks

1111

small port locking in 1.75% profits here in faz on 50% shares,,,almost 2% target

1105
BAC near the 1775 1770..... bulls want to hold 1770 bears want to break it

1101

FAZ: Large port locking in 1.25% profit on some shares, small port holding all for higher

1100
faz and BAC rocking now

1048
faz daytrade acting as expecting breaking slighly higher now,,,last 1337

1032

bought faz 1330

10:00 AM
I'm testing software today so comments may be sparse. But I will post any trades here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

0400
volume in BAC is MUCH lower today

Took profits in FAZ daytrade today at 1.35% profit

0137

out of FAAS hedge 9691 breakeven,,back in FAZ 1345 (FAS was 5 cent profit but just call it breakeven)

1021
I chose FAZ and FAS as trading instruments today partly because they are liquid, trading in high volume. this is essential in daytrading or scalps in order to avoid slippage. Below are stats for recent volume in some etfs... the last column shows DOLLARS not shares,,, that is, what etfs are getting most volume dollarwise (adjusts for fact that 100k shares at $5 is actually less than 99k sharea at $10)

columns are not lined up, but they are labeled. ignore first column.

#       Symbol  Volume  Last    Vol* Last
5       SPY     205,808,499     117.3   24,141,336,933
1       QQQQ    78,009,186      48.13   3,754,582,122
14      FAS     35,653,819      98.1    3,497,639,644
13      FAZ     95,147,742      13.31   1,266,416,446
8       SDS     34,056,746      30.88   1,051,672,316
7       SSO     14,342,166      42.2    605,239,405
3       QLD     6,382,928       65.11   415,592,442
12      TNA     7,374,698       55.05   405,977,125
4       QID     17,027,295      16.79   285,888,283
10      UPRO    1,304,134       173.45  226,202,042
11      TZA     28,787,953      7.09    204,106,587
9       SPXU    5,777,086       29.85   172,446,017
6       SH      1,648,759       49.65   81,860,884
16      TYH     470,680 156.67  73,741,436
15      TYP     743,451 7.86    5,843,525
2       PSQ     100,007 41.21   4,121,288




0116
large port still has FAZ and FAS both,,small port FAS only

0110
FAS scalp in at 9686 tite stop, fewer shares since contratrend... still waiting to buy back faz but in fas for now,,, less fas than faz

0103
i might buy it back at a higher price if justified, but taking the profits for now,,, lower price to buy preferred of course

0102
small port--- exiting rest of faz, look to buy back lower... exiting at 1348 for 1.43% profit

0101
4821 qqqq   1822 vix  last ....faz 1347

0100
charts suggest new lod for qqqq,,, new HOD for faz

1249
stopped out for 1.35% profit in faz small port,,,still have half the shares left for higher prifces

1245

stop 1347 faz on 50% of shares in small port,,,, for guar 1.35% profit

1243
bulls need to hold 1770 BAC...last 1778

1242
more BAC sell programs...goood for shorts

1242
FAZ at resis here...watching carefully at this 1.5% profit area....if it pulls back i'll take profits on some more FAZ,,, small port is holding all FAZ

1239
a close look at rsi for DOW  shows it broke its uptrendline and backtested it here,,,, looking for it to fall, then break under 68.52 then under 63, then 57
 (on daily dow)

1233
* $50k not 25k sorry

1231

profit $100 on $10k, or  $526 on $25k (dollars not shares)

1229

taking 1% scalp profit in faz here on small 10% of shares

1227
FAz stall at 1348 expected,,,, scalpers could take partial profits there...i'll wait...watch reactions

1223
BAC down to 1790 from 1798 in 2 minut3es

1222
BAC sell programs now

1151

FAZ just broke 1334,,,, should pop up nice

1147
if faz breaks over 1334, should pop up for a ncie daytrade, poss swing

1146

in faz 1329---just got filled

1138
will go long 1329 limit faz if filled. last 13.33

1135
software just gave an "exit fas long" alert, no setup yet for enter faz

11:15
BAC up a little from its lows, but still has bearish candel daily for now

11:15
My Comments might be sparse today since I am testing some new software.But I will post any buy or sells for trades that I take

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

347
took rest of profits




on daytrade BAC shorts from 1817
 
 
346
BAC testing its LOD now..trying to hold it up,, likely will break

344
vix is near this 1800 here... would be better if it stays over it

341
BAC breaking lower....

324
yes. bac continues pressing down, slowly...

314
bear desc triangle BAC 15min still valid...

311
holding rest for lower prices...not stopped out yet on 1787....

310
1787 stop on 25% of remaining BAC shorts to lock profits (basis 1817)

305
well 1790 finally broke BAC...see if they can take it under the LOD

251
this 1790 BAC suppport is being stubborn,,, waiting for it to break... buyers there last 2 hours, for now....still think lower

247
qqqq targets still 4754 and 4727

229
dbl top and bear desc triangle poss in BAC 15min

222
1803ish is BAC mental stop,,, hard stop set 1808 just in case of sudden surge...may exit if 1803 breaks sustains

214
vix over 1803 seems ok to me...last 1849

208
charts suggest down in BAC but these buy programs are bothering me short, making me cautious....

206
intraday charts do not have bull diverg so should see more down, BUT   sometimes a move up comes without a diverg but rather a confirmed higher low on both price macd rsi

203
moving stop lower to 1809 BAC,,, can always re-short,,,to guarantee at least a lil more profit in an upsurge

159
this could get tricky here,,, preparing to maybe take profits on BAC daytrade shorts remaing,,, stops still set breakeven 1817ish ... partial profits already taken earlier...

156
now a buy program BAC

155
small sell programs bac here at 1792

152
charts suggest BAC takes a trip back to test LOD and break lower,,, last 1792,,,,LOD 1775

109
chart suggests 80% possible break in vix on first try here

109
VIX testing yesterdays HOD 1856ish... seee if pullback first...in vix

108
qqqq should stalll 4757 same trgt as b4

106
my software suggests BAC being sold at 18.00 heavily, so might break yesterdays low of 1770 on first try...watching

105
BAC breaking the very impt 1788 here...last 1787,,, trgt 1770 then 1744

1259
12:36 PM target vix trgt of 1826--- it just hit dead on ecxactly at 1826 and stalled as expected.... watching for pullback then break higher


1255
preparing to buy tza on a pullback for swing, probably, last 714.. but want to see it breakout higher before buying it.... not yet in the tza...


1254
charts suggest bac will break todays low of day

1251
BAC short 1800 could work here...yes even down here

1250
the SPX 60min chart is putting in a bearish "methods" candle pattern... long 5-6 candles in that pattern not 1,2 3 candles

1247
vix trgt still 1826 last 1795,,, expecting a stall before yest hi, pullback ,,, then test yest hi 1854

1246
qqqqq weak for now,,,should have bounced to 4807ish,,,,havent...last 4798....watching for bounce or not

1243
qqqq target 4757 with a close 4780ish

1241
looking for bac to hold under 1811....last 1803

1237
thus far bull have held it,,,charts suggest a break back lower

1237
BAC needs to close on a 60 min under the prior gap support at 1788...it has no business being over 1788 for bears

1236
vix trgt 1826 last 1795... this is why i wasnt worried about vix earlier today,,,,was "high enough"

1235
charts suggest a bust lower here vs HS bounce up qqqqqq

1234
qqqq poss bear HS setting up could get a bounce to 4825,,,,but might also just bust lower

1233
daytrade stops and scalp stops all set to breakeven or small profit, for a free ride down in BAC

1231
718...somewhere around there,,,depending on price action

1231
if tza hits 716 i will buy on pullback the tza for swing

1228
target 1787 BAC to start... last 1804

1227
fully loaded in BAC daytrades and scalps,,, 18.17 avg daytrade, 1816 scalp, 50% scalp gone for profit

1226
trading idea....BAC 1815 limit short could work here if filled,,,last 1807,,, i wont take since already in

1221
8 minutes later, BAC falls as expected, so took some profits

1221
covering half of scalp for $500 profit in 10 min

1220
qqqq falling....to test support...

1215
scalp 10k shares BAC at 1816 could work here

1213
charts suggest lower BAC in coming minutes,,,, last 1816,,,maybe just to 1810 1806 to start

1159
BAC at support now 1811....watching to see if holds or breaks lower

1158
still loooking for that tza swing entry..none yet

1145
exiting half of BAC daytrade for one cent profit here,,, to reduce # shares and risk, not for profit taking,,, the avg cost accomplished its purpose.  holding 50% still and will maybe re-short again. shorted 1812 and 1821 w avg 1817,,,, covering at 1816 that half,,, lower expected

1130
the 1819 was an R area yest, so adding some here

1129
adding some shorts here daytrade bac 1821... short #2 of poss 4 in BAC... will short at yest high if it gets there too

1057
qqqq poss dbl top intraday... 3min charts,,, 10am and 1030ish

1035
1813ish holding for now in bAC

1030
1813ish should hold esle retest HOD proba

1029
bac back to 1812,,,,watching this 1813ish area here....

1023
BAC daytrade filled just in time,,, 1806 last

1020
might get stopped out a few times on BAC short here, its daytrade, stop-out, re-enter might happen,,, stop mentally above HOD now but might cover earlier

1018
filled on the 1812 short BAC

1018
shorting bac daytrade 1812 limit if filled...last 1811

1000
BAC finan should turn lower here at R....1812 last...watching

953
a vix backtest down to 1740 would still not damage the bullish vix, for swings in coming days..last 1806

936 AM
Looking to enter a new TZA swing if setup comes, no setup yet....

936 AM
looking for 1805/ 1811 / 1819 BAC resist to hold, pref the 1805ishy... last 1798


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

403
vix needs to hold up tho, else risk mini dbl top

400
vix did it...closed at 1846

359
the vix has made it over 1834---very bullish vix if it closes above that,,,, last 1854 ... vix could go to 28in days from the 18,, not saying it will, but could

357
qqqq 4793 just hit

355
will cover daytrade TYP / QQQQ shorts b4 close,,, for about 4% profits using TYP .. holding the vxx fxp smn dxd bacShort for swings

351
qqqqq have a bear engulf 2 day pattern

351
qqqq close under 4791 would be key reversal day bearish

350
4793 still qqqq trgt....last 4803

347
nice,  1793 vix close gives a confirming bull morn star,,, a close over 1834 would be very bullish for vix

346
xlf could be in trouble in coming days... look at that NASTY bear shoot star in BAC, on high vol, suggests very much exhaustion last 3 days

345
qqqq 4810 target


hit...not covering shorts yet from

4847 tho
 
 
344
TYP at 7.73 vs 7.50, up 3%ish

337
from 2:31 PM vix likely will at least test 1792--- target hit, last 1796
 
 
336
qqqq last 4813, near 4810...preparing to cover rest of those qqqq shorts daytrades (typ gone)

331
smn at 718, up from 704 and 687, fxp china up near HOD at 8.64 from 8.20ish, BAC still red but moving toward profit zone

330
1798 BAC target hit, last 1797

329
the BAC candle, if it closes like this or lower, is bearish and could be the exhaustion gap blowoff top i mentioned yesterday as possible.... it has high high volume in BAC, unlike the indices themselfs

327
BAC back down at 1804,,, expecting lower

320
still waiting for vix 1792 target unachieved today, hit the 1717 and 1741 targets

318
expecting 4810 qqqq again,,last 4830

257
vix 1774 now....still have 1792 target

252
but this BAC short still red,,,,for now....

251
SMN i bought 2 days ago is up now too,,, 715 last

238
1170 and 1166 spx targets down,,last 1172

233
4794 qqqq target ..last 4814...might not make that one tho

2:31 PM
vix likely will at least test 1792---last 1768

230
17.93 optimum VIX target with a close over that would be very bullish vix,,, last 1765

238
1799 bac next trgt

226
qqqq at suppport here,,,bulls need to hold 4822ish

225
BAC hit 804 target, one cent from 803...still not covering

221
that spike there to 1820 in BAC did NOT take out my stop,,, it was a MM order

219
*1819 stop not 1817

218
stop 1817 cover BAC short for loss, then will re-short...if the 1817 hit,,, last 1814

210
BAC holding 1812 target here... looking for it to break,,, if it doesnt then i'll exit short and re-enter higher.... still see lower BAC... analysis suggests BAC should get 1804 at least today so waiting,,,,,last 1813

201
prob stll here cuz of 1175 spx

156
should pause at next target of 1741 vix...last 1732

154
1741 is more impt vix # next
 
153
qqqq down as expected...... .. the VIX did it...they were both moving up... vix usually wins


151
now BAC target of 1811 made (actually 1812 hit), with a bounce there as expected.....i am not covering / re-shorting BAC yet here tho

150
4821 qqqq target b4 stall,,, last 4833

148
took scalp profits in 50% qqqq 4737 as the vix hit 1717,,, typ 760

145
1717 VIX target was just hit....1741 vix would be bullish vix bear spx, if it gets there,,, still at R now ,,, stall expected....

140
would expect stall at 1717 vix if makes it, then watching for breakout over it,,, larger breakouts prob not today

139
VIX close to its 1717 target.... last 1707

139
taking lil profit in selling typ daytrade at 758 vs 755 cost here,,, keeping qqqq daytrade shorts from 4847.... typ no good scalping,,, did not move right,,,

136
if i cover at the 1811, it would be a loss on that piece, with epxected gain on the followup trade

134
i might cover BAC at 1811ish target, then re-short.,,, or might just keep it... either way works, cover / re-short would produce higher profits,,,, last BAC still up at 1824 tho

127
vix spx and qqqq all going up in 3min at same time...that wont last long lol

121
vix target still 1717, last 1692

121
small HS bearish in BAC now, intraday only, 18.11 target

103
charts suggest vix will move up some here, toward the 1718

102
vix testing R again here...micro intraday R 1665.... target 1718 after 1687 , if it breaks

1221
they r starting to sell BAC now...

1216
trying TYP at 7.55 here,,, qqqq 4849

1158
VIX testing intraday R now...watching to see if goes above it,,, more impt R is HOD of course

1148
vix starting to creep up,

1135
dow 60 points from 11,000

1133
BAC... three gaps with 3 big candles, often exhaustion, esp last one

1132
BAC and xlf is strong,,,has the look of an exhaustion gap tho

935
vix opened down, but right at support....watching if support in vix holds or not...last 1711

930
17.88 is gap R in BAC from 10/15,,,, watching to see what BAC does here

926
see what happens with VIX today... had a bullish pattern yesterday, last 3 days,,, but needs follow through,,, VIX has consistently been pushed down, so watching that too

923
the thursday bearishness is not a tradeablle strategy for me, just observation

922 AM
lately, mondays are often bullish, thurs are often bearish,, see if the bears have anything today... large red candles have come on thursdays, so just watching .. a look back at thursdays does show some very bearish days there though, this year

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

415
hard to tell, but the BAC move looks like it could have been blowoff top for BAC itself... close to prior gap R, very high vol ... of course, it could also be a continuation move up to $19 from 17.58

315
meanwhile BAC short is messy, red 1.78%,,, but charts suggest a pullback in BAC

314
if fxp can close over 8.55 then it will be a bull morn star on this china short

313
qqqq holding 4795 again....lol bears need that 4788...charts do suggest lower qqqq

300
for bears ...qqqq need 4788...last 4796
 
246
wow fxp up 3%, just noticed, hit 8.54 today, last 8.50

246
a vix close over 1830 would setup bull morn star in vix, tho prob wont get it today,,maybe tomorrow

211
qqqq have bear desc triangle in 60 min,,,seee if bears can do anything with it..last 4801

152
charts suggest spx will break lower on this test....but waiting..

150
this is the 3rd test of SPX 1166 today.... hold or break here is impt intraday

120
qqqq testing support,,,needs to break under the 4788 tho,,last 4796

1116
qqqq support 4789....last 4796...see if it holds or breaks,,,weak now

1115
vix target 1836, last 1771, but has some layers of R in between

1108
BULLS will want to hold BAC 1730ish breakout point...watching that for possible exit vs breakdown there

1105
but vix has R at 1750 and 1830 (approx).... needs to hurdle those to really get anything going

1103
VIX is stretching the upper BB in 15min chart (bullish until flattens)

1047
BAC charts suggest this as possible at least in the BAC, which is why i'm trading short there,,,, if needed i will take a loss on the last piece.... tho took profits on first piece in BAC short days ago

1044
i'm not saying we get this today, but this heavy volume in BAC could qualify as a possible blowoff top...people were mentioning blowoff yesterday ... but vol yesterday not enough.. but it's something to watch
 
 
1043
vix continues to build a base though

1043
vix crawling up, nothing impressive but crawling up not down for now

1033
BAC avg basis short is 17.34.... last 17.48/// currently red

1031
huge volume in BAC today... volume right now is almost the same as total volume for all of yesterday

1015
didnt expect BAC to make 1750... shorting more up here 1749

936
buying positino 1 of 4 possible buys in SMN... in at 7.10

914
*smN not smH

9:13
i will buy SMH limit 7.01 if able, last 7.09

8:45 AM
grr i planned on buying ERY but it has gapped up so far, i'll watch action for possible entry still... should have bought at close yest

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ERY ZSL DUG SMN BAC new positions likely on Wednesday

ERY  ZSL  DUG  SMN BAC new positions likely on Wednesday

Thoughts and ideas are welcome --- agree or disagree,,, it's all good :)

I will try to post charts later, but....

I already have long positions in VXX   FXP and am short BAC again (took profits last week on BAC, re-entered short today at 17.05 and 17.12). FXP and VXX are red, for now. BAC has been very lucrative. Got stopped out of TZA today.

I've been watching ERY  ZSL  DUG  SMN for the last 4 days for an entry. After today's action (they have all declined but basically just backtested), it looks very likely that I'll enter new positions in the ERY ZSL DUG on Wednesday. I'm not sure SMN is ready enough yet but am also watching that one.

It should be noted that ERY and DUG are nearly identical in their charts so I will probably just choose one. (plot both of them on a chart and you will see that it's like plotting SPY and SPX)... they track similarly.

ERY looks nearly ready to buy, prob ready on wedn
ZSL looks nearly ready to buy, prob ready on wedn
DUG looks nearly ready to buy, prob ready on wedn
SMN looking better, closer.

I'll be watching the 60 and 15 min charts to verify that these are valid swing positions, and then use the 3 min and 10 min together to time the entry for the best price.



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

326
BAC has a nice bear hammer in today

317
qqqq touching upper channel line now, daily,,, channel line 4826 depending on how u draw it

303
more institut selling today qqqq around 4803.... might see whipsaw chop in coming hours days as MM recoup

257
qqqq 3min bear HS, half formed

255
vix 3min moved up as qqqq bac went up a lil / flat....

253
10 min chart qqqq backtested the broken utl in rsi....thus far rsi has held the R down...

231
trading my qqqq shorts for BAC shorts instead...bac much better.... i will be out of qqqq shorts today with the scalp profits from before... still have tza swing, bac swing

224
qqqq buy prog

220
adding more BAC shorts 1705

205
charts suggest


lower q's, for now, last 4798
 
204
the qqqq rsi support line 10min uptrend line has been broken lower and confirmed break lower,,,poss backtest up

202
countered by an immediatie buy program... they r trading here now.... sell vol more today tho

200
another sell prog qqqq

149
1 minute later....SELLL programs....qqqq 4798

148
qqqq now testing the rsi 10min support line..trying to break lower....

146
small sell prg.... qqqq 4801

144
BAC breaking down

143
once again,,,,qqqq moving down but not on sell prgm

133
rsi bear dbl top qqqqq 3min

130
qqqq just barely under that 4807 here....

122
BAC short showing weakness, expecting lower (good for shorts)

115
adding qqqq shorts here daytrade 4798

111
LOL bank america BAC has a wick down at 3.04 from 17.07... too bad that's not real, since i'm short BAC...messing up my charts so removing it from chart

1259
the R is holding....for now...

1259
if qqqq moves much higher i will likely abandon rest of shorts near breakeven, keeping the profits taken earlier for a net profit...testing the DTL 10min now

1249
FXP swing moving up, on track

1248
desc triangle bearish in qqqq 60min... but under that 4807 still key

1235
4792 trgt first....last 4796

1233
charts still suggest lower q's here

1232
if i were nervous on the newly added shorts, could exit here breakeven,,,but i'll give it more time

1223
needs to stay under that 4807 mentioned b4,,,over that yea could breakout

1219
we should pull back here...in qqqqq..last 4799

1208
if qqqq stay under 4807

1207
i still expect a lower intraday low, or retest of LOD

1158
hmm...small buy programs here...watching these shorts

1156
this addition is "early"..riskier

1155
adding more shorts here 4795 qqqq

1138
yesterday, i mentioned my software suggested that insitutions were selling, which means the the MM had to buy those shares. the MM thus needed to let the price up yesterday, and now MM appear to be selling to take their profits. no large sell programs suggests they are selling, lettiing it up, then re-selling the shares they bought from insitut... hope that makes sense

1131
vix bull cup handle 3min bullish vix bearish spx

1126
oops filled 4792

1125
re-shorting shrs covered at 4779 here,,, 4791 short

1123
20,000 qqqq at 22 cents = $4,400 profit,,,, 2000 shrs = 440 profit

1117
qqqq should make a lower low to set up a bull diverg with a chance to maybe go long on a daytrade, short for now daytrades scalps,,, short swing

1111
8.23 would give 4.2% profit if able

1110
stil have 50% shares....holding for typ 8.23ish

1107
4779 target hit....partial scalp profits taken,, about 1.5%

1105
4739 qqqq would be target after 4779 if able

1103
if qqqq do not stall bounce at 4776 target--bearish.... will prob take some scalp profits at 4776, saving other shares as longer daytrade

1101
still no big sell prgr as qqqq down at 4782....might pop back up so MM can re-short

1100
taking 1% scalp profit on 30% of shares in typ here

1058
target from 937AM still in...4779 qqqq target on break under 4789



1057
qqqq down at 4790 here but not on a sell prgrtm

1055
the qqqq has 60min 3 big long leg dojis, with 60min overbought, bearish

1054
thus i remain daytrade short

1053
for now, my software says they are selling the mini rallies today,,, sell vol continues higher than buy vol

1038
minor sell progr here in qqqq 4800

1038
thus far, sell vol in qqqq is more than buy vol

1018
typ 786

1018
i will daytrade qqqq 4803 short

956
10min bear HS mentioned yest continues to form on qqqq

943
stop 6.87 on tza

942
swing in tza

941
buying tza 7.10

937
4779 qqqq target on break under 4789

936
qqqq4789 would be first support test...last 4792... testing now basically

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night

403
BAC does have bull piercing candle, but other indicators suggest short still valid,,holding BAC

400
took a 19 cent loss on half the qqqqq

359
covering 50% of qqqq shares for small loss... holding rest...holding BAC

349
only 50% of shares

349
i will cover qqqq 4773 limit if filled

330
trying some tza 706

317
fwiw,,,, qqqq making new high but vix not making new low, higher low in vix

306
the 60min macd 12 and 26 lines are putting in a lower high, bear diverg, as mentioned this morn

302
but either way, support is likely to be tested on a pullback

302
one could also argue that qqqq is in a wide bulllish up channel 60 minute too tho

301
qqqq broadening is clearly seen in 60 min qqqqq... often typical of volatile tops

255
(covered BAC last weeek 1675,,,too k profits,,,, reshorting again here

248
BAC not participating in this lil rally here,,,, still at 1689

225
vix turning slightly bullish intraday here at 1710, bearish for spx

224
BAC is up on very light volume today

214
stop 1703 on BAC...low risk

212
short 1688 BAC

208
limit short BAC 1693 if filled,,, last 1688

112
avg short base for qqqq is 47.72

110
adding shorts 4797... entry 4 of 4

1225
adding more qqqq shorts 4780

1218
*much more rare LOL

1218
intraday gaps are much lesss rare then daily ones.... and significant when they do occur

1216
qqqq gaped down from 4783 to 4780,,, very bearish


1213
still looking for entry in tza smn ery swings...no entry setup yet

1209
bulls need to hold 4777 qqqq...last 4782

1204
if it was institut selling not MM then MM need to let it drift higher to take their profits, then i would fall lower when they start selling at the highert prices

1155
MM selling into QQQQ at 4784,,, millions of shares

1145
vix should bounce up a little here...last 1714... a large move lower in VIX would be very bullish for spx qqqq, or failure to bounce

1142
qqqq mini 3min bear HS....4766ish approx target

1134
qqqq first target down is 4766 on break of 4777

1132
vix waking up.... qqqq 4784...suggests lower

1119
qqqq no 60min bear diverg yet but it continues to form,,,

1102
qqqq really trying for 4795 test...lsat 4786

1059
might try for 4795 test first....

1058
should pullback here...qqqq 4784

1027
setting up bearish divergences.... another pop up was expected/allowed

1018
qqqq might make one more push up, and the daytrade short would still be valid,, should pullback after that per current charts

1016
15min and 60min qqqq bear shoot stars

1007
further the qqqq dtl in the rsi 60min held its R

1006
adding shorts 4770 here at R.... avg base = 47.57

1004
qqqq broke the 60min dtl, this move up is only a backtest to the dtl...still under it

945
4743 and 4753 q shorts both filled

9:42
short qqqq 4743

Monday 9:02 AM
ES futures look like a bear desc triangle but we will see what bulls can do in the next two hours

Sunday 11:01 PM
ES Futures are down 8 points now at 1148.50. Of course, it is early in the session just  starting and anything can happen, but this is a very negative start. Not the typical narrower range during Sunday evening. Healthcare a factor.

ES Futures are down 8 points now at 1148.50. No pause at 1156 as it should have but bearishly broke through to 1152, bounced to 1157, then turned down under 1152 to 1147.75 so far.

I believe it is significant that the futures did NOT pause, stall or even do a small bounce at 1156, which was a reasonable support level. A closer look will reveal that the futures blasted right through this support down to 1152 and then did a bounce to 1157 and turned down. The 1157 is close to 1156, which is now converted to resistance until broken.  After 1157 turned down, the ES made a lower low to  1147.75, which is under the previous 1152 nightly low.

The ES right now is setting up the bearish evening star multi-day pattern that I mentioned last Wednesday as possibly forming on Friday. It didn't form Friday, but could be forming now.

It will be interesting to see how the futures act the rest of tonight, and how they react when europe opens, and then at 9:30 AM open in the USA.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

401
well qqqq closed at 4749,,, 2 cents from the 4747 projection

358
VIX is bullish tho,,,, besides the bull engulf pattern it has 60min 15min good charts, broke the 60min downtrendline higher

354
i'm out of sso for a miniscule profit,,,not worth the effort daydtradea

328
i am more bearish for the coming days, but might hold some sso long over the weekend. charts suggests a pop up before down.,,,,,, but it will be a small position

323
swing strategy---enter during consolodation, exit during volatility or during return to consolod

322
*swing opps

321
these charts are setting up some fantastic, low risk trading opps for next week..... the 15 and 60 min charts into consolodation, and then mr market will decide up or down....

302
poss roadmap.... sso qqqq make a higher low here, then one more higher high, and then fall gently into the close, to close around 4747 qqqq

301
4 minutes later,,,,sso hit 4734 and held first test....

257
as long as sso holdt 4734

256
10 min charts suggests stil more upside today before a drop,,,, last 4139 sso 4746 qqqq

236
vix trgt 1687 down,,last 1711

235
BAC target 1706,,maybe short there,,,last 1692,,,prob no new shorts today

227
*sold 4150, cost 4144

226
selling half my sso here at 4144 for small 6 cent profit,,,to reduce risk not for profits...i bought it in 3 lots.. the avg down accomplished its purpose

225
i still think they fall soon tho,,,the range will resolve down,

223
correction: range 4737 to 4795 qqqq

221
bollinger band analysis suggests we move sideways in the coming hours with no radical move up or down,,,, 4725--4775 qqqq range

216
looking for 4136 sso to hold ,,last 4140

212
qqqq should get 4756 next...last 4747

208
its moving up but on light volume,,,, but should push to the target, then poss drop... volume been heavy on sell side

207
sso rigtht at R here 4145....push over it could accellerate to the 4165 target

205
i am long but daytrade only in sso... the qqqq have had heavy institut selling 4747--4750 fwiw

201
sso target is still the same as this morn... 4163/65ish..last 4139

157
if it breaks over that could get a 10 cent pop

157
4747 R here,,last 4745

153
still looking to poss re-short BAC later again today as swing, but not with these charts now

132
i should have reversed long in BAC when i covered shorts,instead of this sso mess

129
sso is right at 60min rsi support around 46...it will usually at least bounce first before more down,,,but strong down day tday....watching this..last 4138

121
asc triangle sso 10 min but no breakout yet

119
stops are tite on this sso daytrade thing, dud so far,,, dont like the vix moving up right now,

117
VIX moving up


again...strong today.....
 
115
considering gold long via ugl today.... no entry yet tho in the ugl...

105
BAC big green bar 3min... looking to re-enter shorts there (took profits 1775ish) but maybe not more short today

103
institut have been selling 4748/50 qqqq heavily...watching to see if they let it drift up a little here..last 4747...still looks like a lil pop hihger


1246
major distrib selling in qqqq today

1239
the spx has poten mini dbl top 3min,,,but the right side of the chart is coiling so it could pop up... other things suggest a pop up...after that pop up,


should go lower
 
 
1229
daily qqqq candle right now is very bearish, engulfing, but it all depends on the close

1154
wow vix moving up yet again....as the indexes try to crawl higher,,,,

1151
taking profits in 75% of bac short here,,, 1675 near LOD,,, wil re-short at higher levels

1147
sso 3min asc triangle target 4165, my target is at 4163 tho, for now

1145
the BAC has now almost finished its setup of the bearish 5-6 day "methods" pattern, that i mentioned 3 days ago as possibile

1140
taking profits in some qqqq shorts at 4142

1132
4129 sso...buy 3 of


4...still suggests lil scalp profits

daytrade
 
4143 avg cost in the sso

1131
4129 sso...buy 3 of 4...still suggests lil scalp profits daytrade

1108
more sso 4143 scalp

1107
vix strong intraday today,,, has gap R at 1741,,,,last 1736,,, prob pause there

1105
might make a lower lo first

1105
the sso is setting up a bull diverg for a small bounce,,,

1052
i've not taken any BAC profits at 1690 support, its not bouncing so not covering short,,,last 1688

1049
spx should bounce here, good for daytrade only or scalp now swing... sso last 4155... i'm long the sso only as daytrade,,,, and as hedge against the heavily short positions swing

1044
vix back UP at HOD now

1041
took some vxx profits when vix hit 1707

1040
vix hit 1707 target from this morn, made 1710, and is backing off now with a bear shoot star

1038
BAC hit the 1790 target just now that was set yesterday...hit a few hours late, only made 1697 yest,,, watching to see if bounce or break right here

1033
target qqqq from


1013am qqqq near 4743...near target now
 
1022
sso scalp 4161

1017
vix trying for 1699/1707ish...last 1692..close to target, 3 minutes later

1014
1673 target achieved in vix. no stall in vix 1673,, going for 1699 next

1013
qqqq might want 4743 before a bounce, they should have bounced here but have not, yet, at 4762

1011
likely i will re-short 4777 qqqq,,,, unsure yet

1010
bulls need to bounce this here,,, no bounce in qqqq up to 4778ish would be bearish..last 4762..i remain short the qqqq

1006
VIX is right near R.... a stall would be normal, no stall bullish for vix,,, bearish spx qqqq.. stalling now but not strongly (bearish spx)

1005
qqqq here at a support 4766...see if bounces then breaks or holds

1005
clearly all the short positions are happy right now, with the move down.... tho a 62% retracement could happen

959
vix moving up but has R at 1673 (first target)... last 1662

948
if qqqq get under 4728ish...very bearish for them,,, still up at 4777 now

945
the call option assignment has me short the qqqq at 49.50ish... if they hit 49.50, breakeven, anything under that is profit ... it's a very cool way to short stock ABOVE its recent high, in this case 4950 short vs 4785 high

930
45 QQQQ Calls (short) options assigned: interestingly, I wrote/sold some qqqq 45 march 45 calls, and last night afterhours / this morn pre-market, they were actually ASSIGNED to me, before expir today... no worries since I sold at a relatively high price

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

339
vix rising again,,,intraday... could drop here....bac 1707,,,, qqqq4785

339
vix rising again,,,intraday

329
mental stop in BAC at 17.11/1712,,,, last 1708

322
VIX is now at LOD, precarious support....

320
the 3min RSI in BAC for today has had resist at 63, but support at 30, indicative of a downtrend. uptrend would be 35/68 or similar

316
limmit cover 50% BAC 1683 if able''

310
huge red candle in vix...

305
BAC is not like these qqqq spy spx ndx dojis spin tops

305
BAC has a nice red candle, medium sized thus far, near the low

300
bac 60min bear flag

256
a pop over that should give 10-20 cents decline in etfs

256
vix R at 1670...testing now

255
3 white soldiers bullish vix 3min for poss mini intraday breakout

249
also note todays 11:15 bear shoot star,,,followed by red bar

243
bulls will want to repair the bearish shoot star in qqqq 15min

239
qqqq trying to break north out of its coil.. but still short for now

238
BAC 3min RSI is at R now,,, see if it holds prices down at 1711 or not

228
last 4777 qqqq..looking for lower, 4761 to start

227
this qqqq move up here,,,charts are saying its using a lot of energy,,, bearish

213
the OBV (a leading indic) for BAC daily chart has marginally broken its Uptrend line, but needs to be confirmed at close,,, also the break is marginal so it's a bearish "warning" more than action... the OBV will generally break its trendlines BEFORE the underlying stock does

209
qqqq moving up here but in a bearish manner, intraday...for now... last 4778

154
BAC sell prgm... 1702

120
thus far, qqqq has stayed in its coil. ... the R held...

109
qqqq is rite at the R in its 60min coil now,,,,testing it.... 4779

1259
BAC should break the 1700 here else i may exit a piece of short....

1257
interesting...the 3min VIX and 3min QQQQ charts look similar...which one will win? usually vix,, but they have certainly shown ability to beat the vix down these last days

1252
trying qid 1714

1246
vix trying for an intraday mini-breakout higher here at 1668

1240
the 10min BAC is now in a BULL falling wedge, so if this does not convert to bear down channel, or if starts to suggest a break higher, i will exit the shorts, cover, then maybe re-enter... maybe even long though long not likely now

1218
qqqq 60min have a coil now, tech bias in a coil is neutral, other indicators suggest slight downward bias to the break

1212
taking scalp profits here 4762,,, saving other shares for better prices

1205
ii will likely cover some qqqq shorts to lock profits 4754 then re-etner...if no pause at 4754 then bearish

1203
:) yes. BAC has broken the 1703 now,,, 1690 next

1153
qqqq 3min bear rounded top

1152
FXP has FILLED its gap, new HOD 824

1148
if BAC closes under 1657 today, it would be very bearish (tho thats a long way now from 1705)

1147
yesterday i mentioned that those 3 up daily candles in BAC were bearish, not so bullish as they looked.

1146
the BAC is forming 5 day candle pattern: bearish 5 methods...today is day 5 if it closes lower

1144
now BAC must break 1703 and sustain under it, for the 1690 target

1143
there it is,,, a break of the BAC 1710 lower....at 11:21 i wrote:if bac tests 1710 again, it should break lower...last 1715

1140
BAC first target down swing is 1690,,,last 1712,, must break the 1710 first tho... 3min M dbl top in BAC

1137
fxp doing ok today,,,stop remains 7.96,,last 8.20 near HOD

1131
sell program small... qqqq4778

1121
if bac tests 1710 again, it should break lower...last 1715

1109
that qqqq 47.63 spike down was real...time sales print for 200,-000 shares red

1105
4776 short filled limit qqqq

1059
* 2.71 was not filled.... not in the options short

1056
shorted 2.71

1050
preparing to write qqqq march calls fro daytrade (short calls)...last 2.71, no sale yet

1045
BAC continues to fall nicely... 1711 last

1043
covering 50% of qqqq shorts scalps 4763

1041
*limit COVER not sell LOL

1040
4756 limit cover scalp qqqq,,, or at 4763 if stalls... keeping daytrade and swing shares

1036
qqqq falling gently but no big sell programs...small sell programs here.. suggesting yet again the MM are selling shorting into it

1034
DOW right back at the 10,754 again,,, bouncing over and under it as expected...while MR Market decides.... yesterday I mentinoed i expect bouncing around whipsaw here

1033
BAC testing support 1714,,,,charts suggest a break down

1029
4776 was not filled

1028
doubling position size in the qqqq short for daytrade 4771

1025
BAC weakening...last 1718

1022
that last one is just adding more to my 4771, not a real "short #2 of 4"..price diff not enough to merit positino#2

1021
limmit short more qqqq 4776 if able

1016
VIX just did a gap up on 3 min chart..intraday gaps are less freq than daily,,, poss sell programs ready in spx qqqq per vix gap.... last 4768 qqqq

1011
4762 qqqq scalp target qqqq to exit then re-enter,,, daytrade holding longer

1008
qqqq sell progrtams, small

1007
equal buying and selling vol now, slight sell bias

947
Shorting qqqq 47.70, short #1 of 2 or 4 possible additions.... TYP 8.00

9:12 AM
Simple view for next few hours: ES over 1158 is bulish, under 1158 bearish

9:06
will add notes later here

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Shorted DOW at 10,754

More details later.... I Shorted DOW at 10,754... was a target since July 2009

This is a position I exepct to hold for weeks / months unless stopped out.

i'm still short here at R, but my work suggests IF IF DOW sustains over 10,754, then approx dow 12,700ish...dont have exact number... as a blowoff type of top ... it has not proven this yet, I consider the 10754 to be R still for now






* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

339
4754 qqqq could still break lower....

336
qqqq holding the 4754 support from earlier, for now,,, 4731/28 still next if it breaks

323
4754ish qqqq next,,, then 4731/28


321
 1677 BAC target first

319
BAC sell program... 1712

316
qqqq under 4770 is


bearish intraday
 
309
the VIX daily is a doji resting on the bollinger band lower band, BUT the bands are flat now.... bullish for VIX... compare 2/22,,,1/12,,,9/11,,, 9/23

307
if i werent holding the qqqq shorts overnite, but only daytrade, then i'd look to tighten stops here to breakeven, or exit half at 4763ish

304
Gap ups are generally bullish if they r not filled, but the pattern of 2 gap ups in BAC is bearish to me,,, the candles are small with no followthru green bar after the gap.... these generally collapse, tho it can continue for a few days after

300
a vix close tomorrow over 1803 would be bullish vix,,,,

258
VIX is setting up a bullish morning star 3 day candle pattern,,,,3rd candle tomorrow,,, bullish vix bearish


spx dow qqqq



258
4754 next qqqq support,,,, then 4731/28

257
the VIX is at intraday R now....watching for reaction here..last 1684

255
watching the ADX line in BAC ... 1788 is # i'm wathcing... a move in BAC up or down should come at that level...depending on whether DI+ or DI- is on top... on daily ADX,, last is only 16.02 for now

250
bulls want to hold qqqq around 4766 here,,,impt #... a break of 4766 could quickly give 4728

245
the 60min qqqq has a half baked poss bear HS

243
my ES swing target is 1148

241
DOW exceeded the 10,754 target from July by about 14 points...thus far that target has held as R....

240
qqqq at a support here 4766,,,stall expected

239
vix mini intraday dbl bottom..moving up now... i expect larger pullback in coming days, not today

234
f i were nervous, i


would exit qqqq short here at

breakeven,,, i remain short tho
 
150
added shorts at dow 10,754
 
146
i'm still short here at R, but my work suggests IF IF DOW sustains over 10,754, then approx dow 12,700ish...dont have exact number... as a blowoff type of top ... it has not proven this yet, I consider the 10754 to be R still for now

141
charts suggest that ES 1169 should cap it, this move up

135
DOW just hit 10,754 target i had from last year around july....see if we get any reaction near here... doesnt always come the same day

102
qqqq sell program 4776

101
another BAC small sell prgm... 1723

1247
not sure if the BAC spike down to 1702 was real... i dont have a TS to support it visibly

1244
my charts also support at least a lil pullback, not based only on MM actions....maybe only good for a scalp

1243
stops are tight, but with narrow range, need more shares to make $$$

1238
increasing my position sizes along with the MM (agreesive)

1237
software suggests, at this moment, MM are shorting into this,,,could change later but thats what i see now. 4776 qqqq last

1235
small sell programs... qqqq 4776   bac 1721

1231
3min bull cup handle BAC...still short thoough for now as its close to R and expect any breakout to be contained

1228
vix continues to try its mini-intraday breakout higher, but is at 2 levels of micro R here... last 1678.. i remain short

1206
vix is crawling higher again as spx is flat range, intraday (suggests lower spx) but nothing major here

1148
the BAC moneyflow n OBV finally have bear diverg in 60min..last bac 1722

1138
VIX maybe waking up here, intraday only, for daytrades,,,last 1663

1124
dow 10,740 last... 10,754 target from last year still ...expecting turn down if it gets there

1037
if all 3 indexes were aligned when qqqq made a new high, that would prob have given blowoff top,, because index played catchup, less likely to get that type of top.... still think lower ahead, just not via blowoff

1036
qqqq now have 3 bearish candles in a row, 15min chart,,, hangman, narami, shootstar

1034
bac down at 1712 ,,,trgt 1706 but this move down is on lite vol

1030
added more dow shorts at 10725,,,dxd 2711 today 2740 yest... dxd last 2718

1026
setup for the qqqq short still valid, for me...last 4772

1014
BAC target down is 1706 to start...last 1713, down from 1727

1009
poss bear HS 3min BAC

1004
DOW made a marginal new high... hit the 10,731

1001
charts suggest qqqq might not make 48, so scaling in here 4772

1000
shorting qqqq 4772, or 7.97 typ

937
VIX near support from 1/11 low? will it hold or break lower....

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

319
4742 spike in qqqq was real... a TS printed on it for 143,000 shares

309
starting some mid term position in dxd for short dow 10,675ish...27.40 dxd ... if dow wants 11,800 then i'll exit that, and switch to long instead

305
i'm exiting GE long here at 1803 from 16.40,,,,  for about 10% profit in GE

302
DOW continues to struggle at 10,675

252
if VIX gets the 1804 target then the qqq should achieve its too, or lower,,, last vix 1784

245
From 1:43 PM --- charts suggest a 4727 test in qqqq... hit 4732 and bounced,,, missed by 5 cents so far

240
Still looking for these targets, not hit yet:
From 1:43 PM  --- charts suggest a 4727 test in qqqq... last 4746
From 2:07 PM  -- vix mini trarget is 1802 last 1779..stall at 1802,,, if no stall then bullish vix

235
big bear shoot star in qqqq to 4761 ....watching that level

214
indicators suggest reaction will be down... qqqq 4748 last

211
changing limit order for TRV profits to only cover 35% of shares, will save rest for higher

207
vix mini trarget is 1802 last 1779..stall at 1802,,, if no stall then bullish vix

201
dropping more here, as usual.. its usually a good easy scalp,,,,15min to FOMC announcement, qqqqq down at 4740 now

155
BAC is at Low Of Day now...good for shorts

150
here's that small drop mentioned b4... just before announcement.... qqqq 4742

147
vix crawling again, up

146
grr vxx not following vix here

143
charts suggest a 4727 test in qqqq... last 4746

140
slight downward bias, right now... qqqq 4746

140
they are trading shares back and forth here,,,equal buying/selling

136
nervous longs often exit around here, with charts like this.. ES 1150.50,,, qqqq4746

124
limit order to cover shorts in TRV 52.32 if able,, last 52.77

118
usually on FOMC, prices increase thru the morn, then minor pullback small before the announcement, sometimes followed by whipwaw after announcemt

116
since the 12:25 PM  "ES is weakening" alert for 1151, ES has not moved much above it,,,at least for now.. last 1150

108
i will likely short the 10725/10754 if able

107
DOW is about 63 points from 10,725 (old target from last oct of 10,754 previously met)... for retest in 10,725,,,not sure it makes it

103
the 3min BB

103
more BAC selling,,,stretching the lower BB wider

1252
trying VXX daytrade


2345 here
 
1250
VIX has bullish "bounce" candles in the 15 and 60min charts...17.63% last .. 60 min bull matching low/spin top,,, 15min bull harami

1242
:) more BAC selling here

1239
minor sell program in


BAC...1699 last
 
1238
trv bear 15min pattern...green candle followed by red hangman...trv last 5273

1236
possible BULL morn star 3 day pattern forming in BAC, among other things,,,, watching,,,may exit the short today and re-enter, depending on price action today

1225
ES weakening now... 1151 last

955
might cover 25-50% of shares of TRV at 5232ish, then re-shrt

939
shorting TRV 52.60


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

428
the adx daily for fxp is nice...bottoming adx plus a near bull cross dx+ and dx-

352
until qqqq get over 4753, the 60min qqqq trend is down. broke its 60min utl, lower hi thus far

339
vix is putting in a higher hi and higher low. so far, in daily

334
bac sell programs small continue despite the move from 1675-1685

332
qqqq tagged the 4722 target exactly and stalled, watching if 4722 R holds

327
qqqq close to that 4722 test here

321
small sell prg BAC...1678

258
mild selling here at bac 1675, entry point short

247
watching 4722 Q resist..tho i covered shorts before this surge....

233
am both daytrading and swing trading the BAC

211
bac moving much nicer than qqqq hence the swap

208
trading the qqqq shorts for more BAC shorts,,, still have the qqqq short via options from few days ago

206
adding some BAC shorts here 1675

149
stops set to guaranteee at least 3.5% profit on FAZ swing from friday

144
xlf 1548 stop to lock profits from 1573 on 75% of shares...can always re-enter. last 1546

1250
agressive could short here.... qqqq 4701

1230
some vol picking up in qqqq...watching for direction

1222
the 4737 qqqq spike was real,,, 500,000 shares sold green 4737

1208
vix continues to suggest breakout,,,new high in vix expected in 14 minutes.. last 1873

1206
if qqqq lose 4693, they will likely lose the 4690 LOD... i see the 4693 as more impt actually than the 4690, for now....


1202
heres the 4693....watching to see if holds...

1158
looking for qqq to make one more lower low today, then bounce, if able, if can stay under the 4707....

1152
qqqq 4693 is # to watch micro here now...last 4695

1149
MM stepped aside momentarily...prob testing mkt to see which way it wants to go... to reshort it goes higher, or sell if goes lower.... qqqq last 4699

1142
qqqq have pretty strong support at 4596ish if they get there...daily MA support, channel line support, etc.. would expect stall bounce there if it got there in coming hours days.. that's my "real" first swing target, if able, for the qqqq shorts

1137
xlf tagged 1537 and stalled, a penny under the 1538 target..... last 1538...still looking for lwoer xlf

1136
3min bull diverg on qqqq say lil pop possible but no 15min diverg,,, so just keeping stop 4707 for now

1125
19.33 target in VIX,,,last 1876

1124
VIX is right at R but continues to suggest breakout higher

1123
stop set 4707 qqqq to cover most qqqq shorts in case of pop up here suddenly,,,, should stay under 4703ish.. last 4696... trying to manually trail it down

1120
charts suggest a breakout in vix,,,down for qqqq spx

1118
VIX is about to test HOD...impt test...watching to see if HOD holds R or if breakout higher over it....

1117
still red the last qqqq options i didnt take profits on.... 2.05 vs 1.50,,, as qqqq go down, the bleeding should stop... took 47% profits in other 75%

1116
small sell prg in the qqqq continues....letting it down gently suggests MM selling shorting here

1114
1538 XLF trgt...1542 last

1112
4683 qqqq target down after 4702

1111
taking some TYP profits here for 2% daytrade profit... still have 50% of shares

1110
qqqq just hit the 4702 trgt at 4700... not covering shorts yet...watching to see reactino here

1108
:) the parabolic ananlysis last night suggested this pullback.... the parabol works well in this type of setup... so let's see...

1107
VIX is NOT near its HOD yet qqqq near its LOD,,,, trouble for QQQQ when VIX tries to retest its high

1105
VIX suggests a 10 cent drop in the qqqq for the 4702/4697ish trgt

1058
small selling suggests letting it down gently to 4702ish

1057
:) qqqq breaking lower....small sell prgrm.... 4712

1050
looking for qqqq 4712 to break lower but took some profits here cuz at intraday support

1049
taking some typ scalp profits 839 from 830, for 1% in 90 minutes

1047
small qqqq sell prgm... 4719

1045
i remain short the xlf from 1573 and 1565 (faz too long)

1042
xlf in a 3min coil that could convert to asc triangle....

1041
for those who follow wicks, BAC had a 2.97 wick from 16.89 LOL,, clearly that one is a data error (tho i'd welcome since short BAC)

1034
if 4712 qqqq breaks then 4702 target,,,might take a scalp profit there...

1028
qqqq broke under the lower boll band line, the bb channel was flat not wide, suggesting further downside for qqqq

1024
qqqq are now back inside the daily upchannel, right at the R line,,, 4725 last

1019
qqqq bounced near


4712 as expected,,, still the

4712--4722 mini range for now, bias

is down to break 4712 later
 
1012
4721 held as expected, not the 4711 will prob hold for a lil here.. last 4717...

1009
daily OBV for QQQQ just hit the up channel Resis line, watching if it holds for downturn. ADX ADMI a bear cross in 60min., the 60min OBV broke prior low and under it now, slight backtest.. ADX suggests a decent move down could come due to the bear cross and declining adx....then when adx turns higher it will strengthen the bear cross

1006
for now, charts


suggest 4722 will hold
 
1005
watching the 4722 QQQQ mini R...last 4720

9:47
shorting QQQQ 4727,,,long TYP 8.30, stop 47.80 for now, will lower later

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

ES gets Parabolic sell signal in 60 minute chart

Because of the rapid, moonshot, steep advance in the ES, SPX, and QQQQ lately, I decided to do some parabolic analysis, which is very useful in strong moves like this. Supplemented of course by the RSI MACD STOCH trendlines Support, R, etc. But below I show the Parabolic SAR.

ES right now (Sunday 11:53 PM) has a SELL signal in the 60 minute. This is overnight trading though, and a 60minute not daily signal, so it is weaker, but significant nonetheless.

If we see these signals on the SPX SPY during the daytime 930--400pm, then they are stronger.

SPX

A move /candle close under 1146.50 would give a sell signal in the 60 minute chart.

SPX daily: a move under 1135 is needed to give a parabolic SELL signal

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Still expecting QQQQ pullback

There are so many chart patterns, bullish and bearish, so the chart below shows a very simple view, yet revealing.

Each time the QQQQ hit RSI over 70, there was a pullback, although sometimes the pullback was small. More notes in the chart.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

407
we got the bear xlf dark cloud cover candle pattern today, other bearish diverg,,,, looking for bearish eve star pattern on monday or tuesday for DOW

402
shorted xlf at exact high, covered at exact low, unusual but fun

336
BAC down 2.3% vs FAZ up 1.4%

334
BAC short is outperforming the 3x bear shares FAZ lol

333
taking 3% profit on 50% of BAC shares short ,,,here

330
yes...finally 1547 xlf hit target. exact to the penny.

325
exiting the qqqq from 4731 here at breakeven,,,, out of that daytrade

324
2.6% locked profit in faz daytrade

324
selling some faz here...keeping 25% of daytrade shares...its stalling... 1489

322
grrr one penny from 1547 trgt in xlf

321
nice for the faz xlf shorts.... still going to exit the rest of qqqq shorts / typ...will only have the qqqq short via options

318
1547 xlf should be hit...last 1550

317
:) wow...awesome...nice profits on the xlf faz qqqq short

315
1509 faz


target...rough not precise,,,for daytrade
 
308
a bear engulfing candle / reversal day in xlf would be very bearish but would need a close under 1542, not expecting that ,,, just fyi,,, dark cloud cover less bearish does seem likely tho

304
xlf is close to the dark cloud cover bear 2day pattern today...watching to see how it closes

303
poss eve star bear 3day candle pattern to form on Monday for dow $dji

257
LOL these qqqq are stubborn for shorts,,, still rotating out of qqqq shorts into xlf short

253
taking 1.6% profits in half of FAZ daytrade shrs

245
scalpers would take xlf / BAC prfotis partial at support here abotu 1.8%

241
taking some BAC profits 1.7% daytrade,,,keeping rest for more daytrade and swing

240
more selling xlf :) ... support 1555 1550ish

236
more xlf sell prg 1560

235
vix would need a 60min close over 1846 tho

234
vix could dev the bullish 5 methods pattern in 60min chart... 5 candle pattern

226
added xlf shorts today at 1573 and 1563 as the xlf hit the prior october hi of 1573... 1573 was high of day

223
xlf sell prgrm now too

222
:) BAC continues to fall nicely for shorts

216
BAC finan selling here

200
qqqq buy prgrm

157
the BAC short is


outperforming XLF shorts / faz
 
 
154
xlf sell prgr  : watching to see if a


corresponding buy prg kicks back in
 
 
145
it suggests xlf distribution (bearish)... xlf red on higer volume

144
xlf vol now at 1:44pm is already more than yesterday's total volume,, not seen in the qqqqq just xlf

139
xlf buy progr... buying and selling still equal approx

131
xlf selll prg....1563

121
dxd 60min has a bull diverg rsi vs price

120
dxd dow short holding for now too...

119
qqqq sell prg... 4735


118
if dxd can hold here it could form an asc triangle..2765 last

114
vix is weak now (bullish spx, bear vix, right at support...wacthing if it holds here)

113
mild buying xlf 1562... slightly more selling than buying last 1 hour

102
i'm red VXX and FXP right now though :( but vxx will move fast up if it goes

1258
in the process of trading all my qqqq shorts for xlf short... taking small profits in qqqq short and re-investing in the xlf short

1248
looking for a FAILED bull flag in the xlf 60min

1245]
:) more selling prg in xlf

1240
looking for a bear dark cloud cover pattern today in xlf...2 day pattern daily candles

1239
or 2796 dxd

1237
dxd R at 2788...last2774,,,, stalll 2788 expected, might sell some dxd then re-enter, unsure

1237
mild xlf selling

1232
todays trade ibm might be a loss, yest was a profit, so net breakeven or small loss

1231
exiting the IBM short today sometime.... will either be breakeven (on 2 short trades) or small profit....investing money elsewhere

1228
xlf sell program here at 1565

1227
xlf might get over 1574,,, often times they will overshoot the prior high and then retreat...

1149
shorted xlf 1564... HOD 1573,,, adn 10/14/09 High 1573,,, FAZ.. if they can take out the October highs then i will back off the short xlf

1120
*correction:60min not 3min line for qqqq,,,, its under the 60min support line that it broke...

1119
qqqq backtesting the UTL 3min since monday line....broke lower now backtesting,,,watching to see if it gets back inside the upchannl

1058
daytrade--trying short QQQQ here 4731, typ 8.26

1051
1674 first BAC trgt

1050
also watching BAC here bank amer.... at support, poss dbl top in BAC.. BAC down at 1703 now from 1735

1042
the 1145.50 and 4733 qqqq R are holding...for now...added some shorts there daytrade

1036
4710 qqqq was real...it had a corresponding TS (Time And Sales print)

1035
qqqq right now are sitting right on 12 day support in daily uptrend charts, testing it,,, a break and sustain under support would be bearish, hold would be bullish/ neutral

1032
ibm 2 min bear HS, 127.07 target down if broken

1029
ES 1138, 1134 my targets, last 1144

1025
see if bears hold this under 1145.50 es....or 4733 qqqq

1020
qqqq down targets: 4721, 4703, 4667, 4637, 4603 with stall bounce at each

1019
more qqqq support at 4703 under 4721

1015
fxp "should" be down or flat today, not up....

1014
fxp (bear china honk kong) moving up also this morning... do some MM know something about china's path next week?

1013
bulls need to hold 4721 qqqq...impt intraday support

1011
those two 3min bear spikes in qqqq are real... time/sales printed about 350,000 shares sold red at 4750

1009
a vix break over 1862 and hold over it would be bullish vix, bearish spx..last 1844... R at 1862

1008
in the vix, to me, it looks like the vix broke out of wedge other day, backtested, and is now headed back up in coming hours/1-3 days

1007
:( grrr my ibm short is acting up this morn, IBM is up,,, still short for now,,,, it's weakening some now tho

1006
es supp 1142

1005
qqqq support 4721,, stall normal there,,,,

1004
a HUGE 3min bear shoot star in qQQQ here

1002
:) there it is.... 1minute later...1146 broken,.,,, now see if it can sustain under it

959
charts suggest es


1146 will break, to me,, lsat 1147
 
957
spx has two 15min bear shoot stars, possible 60min shoot star

952
VIX simple view: VIX is bullish as long as daily rsi stays over 37.50, and/or 60min rsi stays over 38.73... bearish if not ...

943
if qqqq 4750 stays as the HOD, then a bear diverg in 60min chart

941
i know its painful short, my charts still suggest at least a minor pullback in coming hours/1-3 days

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Since April, QQQQ have always pulled back when chart was like this

Since April, everytime that QQQQ daily RSI hit 70, they pulled back. See chart.

I'll add more details later.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".