Thursday, March 4, 2010

thurs ramblings (and Wednesday eve / Thurs morning pre-market ES )

401
qqqq looks like rectangle type pattern 60 min now

359
my stop wasnt hit...i sold at the mkt

359
sold rest of faz for 4 cent loss... grrr that was a boring trade

356
selling half breakeven here faz

355
stop 1685 on all faz

353
stop .87 on 50% faz near breakeven

351
will sell half of faz soon near here 1692 breakeven

347
ES is putting in a bear wick 3min... see what it does now

347
might need to take a loss on that faz....waiting..

343
buying more faz daytrade here 1687... 1692 avg cost

342
still in this faz....hanging by a thread

339
qqqq 4573 was expected...but will it hold down or breakout hibgher? watching... bias down now....

334
at 12:22pm i wrote: wouldnt be surprised to see qqqq pop up to 4573, then head lower to LOD... last 4558. it just hit 4574, tho a return to the LOD seems unlikely  now

325
qqqq testing the 60 min trendline DTL now again at 4566..... touch is lower now than 4b cuz of down slope

322
paas short is getting the expected bear eve star pattern

318
tomorrow i might add more fxp if it looks good, for 3rd buy,,, fxp green profitable about 4%ish now

316
PAAS short is lil irritating red 2% red but i'll hold onto it, swing

313
still only mild selling....

311
got out of qcom just in time,,,, last is 3911

310
looking at least for the 4517ish test,,,, yes 42 still in the cards just not by tomorrow LOL

309
i will remain short swing q's.... 47 up vs 42.50 down with 4566 last is good risk:reward for me

304
nervous faz could exit here breakeven or small profit... i'll stay in ,,,, have profits from scalps and 14% options profit to invest

303
that qqqq trendline perfect touch held on the first test anyways.....

302
qcom was a hedge but not looking good so got out

301
out of qcom breakeven

257
3914/07 is all i will risk in qcom

247
qqqq are doing a perfect touchh now of DTL 60min....4570... testing that R

246
qcom mental stop 3914/07oish...watching

240
qcom its getting R at


3925...if it breaks over it should pop,

else it will fall, hence the tite stop
 
237
qcom stop moved to near breakeven

233
qcom needs to breakolut here.. i bought at HOD 3917 last 3920


232
qqqq stalled rejected exactly at the 4567....watching that

224
LONG qcom here3917 tite stop
 
 
223
this is not good... increased vol buying with small price up... suggests drop down unless they can get price up

221
price needs to pop highera

221
this buying with only a small price move up could be bearish.... could be MM shorting

221
its increasing...buying

220
buying mild here..could increase

217
faz 1688 or 1712 should cause accel in the direction of the break.. stuck now at 1699

209
qqqq up on lite vol here.... watching this 4563 4567 4572 area

207
19.37% vix target... last 19.15... a close over 1937 would be very bullish vxx, bear spx

158
mild buying here

153
xlf weakening now...

151
lol my VXX still red 11% but it jumps around fast, volatile

150
oh got 14% not 10% on the calls

148
taking small 10% profit on some of the qqqq calls i sold this morn

148
taking some small profits on prior qqqq scalp... just under 1%.... small yea but want to lock some in...saving rest for higher profit

145
charts suggest q will hold the first test of 4540ish if it gets down there

144
wick on the q's to... guess where? that 4563...same level the MM selling 15min ago...interesting

142
mild selling

141
price is now leading down vs the vix,,,, so if vix breaks it could cause a nice further pop down

138
4558 q now...seee if they selll 4563 again

136
faz first target is 17.24 for 1.6% profit

135
now they r selling 4563 not 4567 in the q's heavily... lowered it...bearish

124
if vix can hold around this area.... 60min chart suggests unfinished biz on the upside

122
nervous faz would take this gift and exit here breakeven / small profit,,,i remain in

121
bulls need to quickly repair the 10min 15min shoot star bearish

119
now mild selling...more than the buying....

117
mild buying now...

114
when markets move sideways, writing selling calls is nice strategy, cuz u make money from time decay, even if price doesnt change

110
vix also continues bull consolodation....

110
poss 3min qqqq bull cup handle but i remain short

105
lol something is wrong... the faz was supposed to go down first before up but i'll take this

101
looking for 3min faz close over 1702, to start...

1259
3min faz chart warns it could pop down first too....

1252
trying some faz 1697...tite stop.. higher risk

1245
lots of  bear topping tails in the 15min xlf...tricky up there

1244
xlf continues bull consolod...but can it break for 1505 first trgt? 1490 lasy

1239
qqqq down here but not on high vol sell..yet

1231
xlf seems to want 1504...last 1491...watching to see if breaks higher

1225
simplified view: qqqq bearish under rsi 64, bullish over 64, and over 60 would suggest pop higher. last rsi 55. of course simplified views are less reliable.

1224
i will likely re-short 4573 if that move comes

1222
i wouldnt be surprised to see qqqq pop up to 4573, then head lower to LOD... last 4558

1218
it could fail, but vix is saying "breakout higher in vix" for now.... today a moderate breakout

1216
qqqq dailys and 60min adx dmi suggests chop, with downside switch favored after chop

1214
qqqq 3min chart patter target is 4511 if qqqq under 4567

1210
60min qqqq has unfinished biz on downside while qqqqq under 4567

1207
vix bull crouching tiger here 92% confid IF IF it stays over 1907

1206
vix trying to break its bull flag....

1205
fxp continues the upward movement

1204
mild selling in the q's

1203
but 60min still suggests xlf tired....

1203
xlf remains strong still

1157
shorting again...4563....re-shorting back the shares i took scalp profits on

1149
mild vol on this move up .... why need to take profits when they come scalping, now qqqq back to 4560

1146
the typ scalp from 911 can take 1% profits here... i'm taking just a lil off,,,holding rest... 1:28--11:46 AM



profit 1% i'll take for 20 minutes hold

1143
qqqq charts suggest a test of 4540 ... but less reliable during 1130--1pm

1142
vix over 1894 will frustrate the bulls intraday and make it hard for them....if it can hold over that

1141
vix 60min bull flag, remains perched up there nicely for now

1137
but xlf weakening

1136
financials stronger than qqqq today...xlf 60min bullish but has some bear diverg forming in it...but looks like wants to test maybe break hod 1491

1147
11:28--11:46 AM profit 1% i'll take

1134
qqqq down a lil here but no volume on it yet....

1133
qqqq forming possible bull flag in the 60min? unsure but i'm playing the flag down until confirmed, then will switch long if merited

1128
typ 9.18

1127
i will short q's here 4561 and again 4572 if able

1116
agressive short idea: short qqqq 4559 / 4560 here

1102
qqqq 60min candle closed at 45.55.... the 10:04 AM qqqq 4553 was close under target ... these MM are good at causing confusion lol... bias still down for me while qqqq under 4567


1101
the qqqq OBV is double topping while the qqqq make higher highs,,,, a pattern i mentioned 2 days ago as starting...bearish...

1056
wow... vix looks like its trying to breakout over the R on the first try here.... if it does, the spx could drop 10 points... spx last 1119... but vix has NOT yet broken out..just a vix warning

1052
vix right at R now... wouldn't expect it to breakout on the first try.... a vix pullback would be ok here

1048
my software suggests: from 930--1020, the MM were equally buying/selling qqqq... currently they are selling more

1047
oh welll...the earlier call from 4250---4447 was right at least

1046
LOL my qqqq 42 target by tomorrow--clearly THAT was wrong call... i expected the qqqq to hold 4517ish down

1045
this is a stall area.... still looking for the 60min candle closes and other indicators MF rsi etc etc

1043
taking 23% profit on small piece of the qqqq calls i wrote sold yest.. holding rest for much lower qqqqq

1042
should stall qqqq 4540ish then 4511ish

1041
vix and qqqq both approaching their "close over/under" targets here

1040
fxp now up at 8.80....up 3.5% from yest.... the 911 is target

1033
i think qqqq downside will pickup on break and sustain under 4537

1031
a vix 60min candle close over 1935 would be bullish for vix (bad for qqqq spx)... far from there now at 1888

1023
4541 qqqq target...should stall there unless very weak

1021
qqqq "should" try for 4563 here, last 4553... if not, they r weak... charts suggest they might not make it

1021
qqqq hit that 4553 "close under" # exactly and bounced up... still watching for 60min close under 4553 as bearish sign

1017
qqqq 3min poss bear HS forming

1012
interesting... the 4567 qqqq is an impt # today--- that is the same # that MM were heavily selling yesterday////

1011
qqqq will prob bounce up a little here from 4560,,,inability to do so would show more weakness


1004
qqqq--a 60 min close under 4538 would probably setup a "high for the day is in" setup, not sure. a 60min close under 4553 would be bearish intraday

1003
vix holding the 1865ish...barely but holding...

1002
*9.12 typ not 911 sorry

1001
shorting the qqqq 4571 here daytrade typ 911

955
vix at 1865 now, close to its "must hold" level... over 1842 would still be ok but 1865 preferred

950
vix needs to stay over 1865 for its upward bull pattern to continue... under 1865 it gets iffy... last 1879.. vix still looks like basing for move up while over that

945
a tbt close today over 4777 would likely trigger a confirmed long tbt setup for me, not sure, depends on charts,

940
tbt is also starting to look good now for swing since yest, tho i am not buying here,,, too many other positions to watch, 4749 last. also fridays are often good for tlt, bad for tbt.

939
paas silver comp short is also lower

937
as mentioned yesterday afternoon, the fxp did gap up, though not at the 9.11 level, last is 868

9:18
Yesterday I did get "early entry" swing short setups for spx 1120, qqqq 45.50, so i'm trying that early to see how it develops. Today / tomorrow could confirm or negate the early entry short setup.

9:11
consolodation on 11/17, 11/24, 12/4, all resulted in small moves down, followed by up again. consolodation 1/20 resulted in a large move down. so i'm waiting to see if we get a move down here or not, how large it is, and whether spx qqqq recover or continue lower toward 42 qqqq 1040 spx. Charts are bullish now but the daily still has a lower low and possible trend change down, or double top. of course, it could also blast up to new highs. I'm short for now, given the current charts.

5:19 AM
As mentioned yesterday, it looks like FXP (China short) will gap up this morning, possibly to 9.14 this morning, we'll seeconsolodation on 11/17, 11/24, 12/4, all resulted in small moves down, followed by up again



* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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