ChristopherStockGuy: April 2010

Friday, April 30, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0424
spx also shows some signs daily that it may be starting a coil triange

0353
vix at 22 R.... could pop to 23,,,sounds high but it could

0337
not an easy environ to trade in like that so i'll keep small positions swings

0336
heres what i see spx: daily bias down, 60 min down, 15min up/neutral,,,, but other indicators i have suggest whipsaw

0321
last lil move up on lite vol to push up,,,still thinking lower into close

0307
skf target 1846

0306
4922 qqqq limit to cover half

0259
4393 qqqq wick did have a print but only for 70,000 shares

0253
vix is pushing up nicely against its BB stretching it not piercing spiking thru it

244
cancelled limit order ...usually will go lower when only misses by one cent

0242
4936 is good spot to cover half but trying for the 4933 limit first

0239
VIX is now at high of day...

0236
still have that 49.33 limit cover qqqq from 49.61/73 on half of shares,,,holding other half for more profit if able

0234
using SPY and QQQQ to do long/short is so much better than the 2x or 3x etfs.... such high volume on the spy qqqq

0228
the "orderliness" of this decline is typical of stage 3 distribution tho,, with the stage 4of decline to follow

0225
but since adx has bottomed and rising,,,watching for possible bull cross there to indicate move over,,,when adx bottoms the trend can shift

0223
adx line qqqq 15min bottomed and risiing, with DI neg on top... showing the qqqq downtrend not done yet in 15min charts

0218
we could move sideways for a week, then down

0216
ah those MM used a trick to paint that last 15min candle green,,,, tricky guys,,, ran it up just b4 the 15min bar close

0212
intraday 15min qqqq have 4 waves, looks like 5th wave down starting here

0209
2million qqqq just sold red at 49.46

0203
for profit, if able,,covedr 25% newly added qqqq shorts limit 49.33

0159
see if qqqq bounce to 4956 and hold down there, last 4950

0158
4961 was good re-entry short qqqq thus far.. close the retraced high

0150
4961 qqqqq short looks good here

0113
next qqq target is 49.22,,, other qqqq targets.... 48.98,,,, 48.37 if 49.87 R holds

0108
VIX just broke yesterdays high, tho marginally

0106
3min bull diverg on qqqq may present opp to add to shorts if it rises

0105
stop 4987 on 50% of qqqq remaining now, and stop breakeven on other 25% (took profits on 25% already)

0103
i covered some qqqq to lock profits but still see lower in coming hours days

0100
covering 25% qqqq at 4940

1256
my tbt conversely is a mess lol, down 1.8% but thats longer hold

1255
skf has broken over yesterdays high of 1789 and is at 1803 and rising, up 3.80%

1238
Market makers are holding qqqq up here and shorting into them

1233
QQQQ is right at its 20 MA daily now testing it near 49.54.... hold first time expected there... but often will overshoot lower, then backtest back up

1228
watching for possible formation of the ever so popular inverse Head And SHoulders bullish in the QQQQ 3min, tho still short

1224
my qqqq targets.... 48.98,,,, 48.37 if 49.60 R holds

1219
qqqq...if no stall at 4960....they are really weak...should stall there

1217
watching 4960 now....stall 4968 expected

1212
watching qqqq at 4968 reaction if it gets there,,,hold or bounce...last 4972

1212
qqqq weak also,,, HS in 3min bearish, broken neck

1209
shorting qqqq here directly instead of qid or typ,,,using 3x the shares to mimic 3x etf....vol too low on the 2/3x etfs

1149
i'll try QID 1546 limit if able

1142
considering QID but no entry yet

1127
xlf skf faz...in a 15min coil...bouncing around... waiting for entry into faz

1049
stopped out on other piece of spxu, only got 1.25% profit on 25% of spxu

1048
stops on remaining spxu at breakeven

1046
ES could be trying a bull cup handle 3min but i still like short

1043
1198 ES short here could work, hold time 15min--4 hours

1034
should pull back here from 1198

1027
ES resis 1198---see if it holds

1019
charts suggest one more move down to break 1193 ES before signif bounce up, to me at this min

1016
VIX JUST DID INTRADAY GAP UP FROM 1935 to 1958///could be significant,,,, intraday gaps like that less common than overnite gaps

1009
next spxu trgt 27.84

1006
taking 1.25% profit here spxu,,, 1197 ES,,, 2749 spxu, on 25% shares, cuz at R,, cannot turn down 1.25% profit in 8 minutes hold time,, or ES 1202.50--1197 or 5.5 points

1000
60minute move down may only just be beginning

958
*1202.50 ES sorry

957
in 27.12 spxu,,,paying premium, starter position...at 1203 ES

954
trying spxu 2696 limit buy for now, if filled

953
i might do a momentum trade starting position on a break of ES low but waiting for bounce up in spx to short first if able

942
simple view: observe the MACD histogram in 15 and 60min uptick downticks for momentum shifts

941
until spx 15 and 60min strengthen, i remain bearish for coming hours not minutes

939
since April 16 the 60min rsi on skf has stayed over 34 for a low but over 66 for highs, this implies the upside in skf is stronger (bearish xlf)

937
10 15 60 min charts suggest down in spx to me, from a hold time of hours not minutes

935
spx 15min boll bands are tight,,,a break over of either is likely to continue in direction of break...now testing the lower BB

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0804 PM
SKF and FAZ went up in afterhours,,, used that opp to sell some FAZ for 1.75% profit at 11.52, bought today 11.32... i was planning on holding this till tomorrow but i've got skf, so locked in leftover faz

0339
this looks like backtest of last lil move down,,,,

0329
MM are testing market here,,, they pulled out for a few minutes

0320
breadth testing a support level here

0318
wow no movement considering 3:18pm

0312
XLF daily...still in the falling price channel

0306
*5 EMA oops

0305
15min nyse a/d crossed bearish under its 10MA

0302
taking 1.5% profit here on 25% more faz, just to be sure,,,holding rest for higher

0258
not dropping ask, just bid

0257
hmm...MM dropping their bids here

0254
this move has more vol than last down

0251
vix trying to wake up....

0244
ES support at 1202 and 1199,,,, over those levels, bullish ES, but break below could trigger stops lower

0241
selling 25% of FAZ 1142,,,, need to take at least one profit today even if small,, only about 1%

0237
i dont like the last 4 candles in 60min es...those r bearish,, ES last 1206

0226
breadth looking toppy to me,, the nyse adv-decl

0218
doing faz day here 1132

0214
XLF resistance is holding here thus far,,,skf support held....watching

0205
we "should" pull back here LOL but who knows today,,,very bullish day on light vol tho

0203
ES vol today much less than yesterday and day b4

0200
skf support at 1723,,,watching to see if that holds...last 1730

0122
nyse adv minus dec 60min peaked at 10AM today, is flat since then hasnt moved up

0100
15min macd hist does have diverg, tho not 15min rsi nor 15min macd-line,,, but the 60min macd line is forming a diverg now

1254
i know we talked about bear divergences 3 times today lol... this is the first time today that theres a bull diverg on the 133t SKF tho (bear diverg XLF),,, SKF 1743

1241
i have a "declining breadth warning"... hasnt happened but warns of it,, spx at 1208 suggests lower

1229
skf bull crouching tiger forming but only at 78% now,,but forming

1216
when the 3rd drive to a high fails to hurdle the high, a larger move down often occurs,,, of course this is intraday not daily so degree is less magnified

1216
a failed mini triple top....in ES... those are generally worse downside than double tops

1211
the daily rsi 14 has an intriguing horiz support line at 41.01.... its both breakout higher support and also backtest support,,, vix at 52.60 rsi now so it could still decline more and be bullish vix as long as 41.01 rsi holds and vix stays over 16.00/17.00

1200
*SDS down 3% not skf oops

1159
currently my skf down 3%, skf down 1%, tbt up 0.5%... all trades still valid to me for now

1142
SPX near high of day but NYSE advance minus decline has a lower high, affect not immediately seen usually

1139
buy program, moderate,,,

1121
i'm not adding to sds but rather transitioning from sds to skf,,, i like skf more,, still have red sds from 29.85 swing

1117
skf LOD so far 1759 low of day

1116
. i have an 88% day setup for skf now

1115
skf avg cost 17.72

1114
adding some skf here 1762

1042
3min bear diverg spx now, spx 1203.50

1019
in general,,, ES should have made a higher intraday high by now,,,, shows weakness to me for time being...gap theory

1012
bearish es 60min candles so far... 3 shoot stars / gravestones

1001
i have a sell program warning but only at 79%,, means sell program might kick in within 20min, last spx 1200

0955
small sell prog in financials

0944
i am in SKF at 1781

0827 AM
watching to see if ES 1201 Resist holds

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

More details....

0402
today,,,, ES tagged the 38% fib

exactly and bounced down off it.....

0359
ES 1177 will likely break under 1177 if it gets back there, in coming days

0355
today looks green in spx, but volume was actually red today not green,,,

0353
as i see it,,,, spx tested R today and failed, the short trade swing remains valid now

0352
bought sds to short spx,,, 29.80, will hold as swing

0349
now i'm bearish, might even pick up small short in spx /// sds

0346
took profits in HRL too,,,, out for 1% profit

0345
charts are changed now,,, i will not hold any sso overnight swing

0342
ES under 1188, bearish into close,,,

0324
tricky here,,,,vix trying to move up

0321
spx 3min is coiling again

0317
1188 ES....thats my # into the close,,,over it bullish, under bearish

0316
those rsi failure swings (bullish) can be powerful when on the 60min

0313
i just might keep a 10% very small long position overnight,,,can't believe i'm saying that but 60min says spx might have unfinished biz on upside,,,,,its a tricky setup

0311
watching if ES 1188 holds here,,,could set stage for the close

0307
ES over 1188 gives a...u guessed it ,,, small inv HS, 3min

0302
also note how ES is stretching the boll bands (15min) not just popping above them (bullish)

0301
there is a bull rsi fail swing in the 60min spx but 15min suggests chop consolod or whipsaw

0300
looking for a slight overshoot of spx 1196 tho

0258
maybe tomorrow i will turn bearish,,,stilll bullish intraday here for now

0239
spx 3 min is coiling

0237
its crazy tho,,, n unfair.... the volume is on the downside today,,,this is a trick they use,,, spx closes green, with a green volume bar, but really it was distribution (if it does close green).... this is not uncommon

0225
taking 1% profits here on 25% of shares,,, still have half left,,,sso

0222
uh oh..vix breaking minor support here,, good for longs bad for short

0220
tlt spiked down to < 4630 then made new HOD > 4660

0219
TBT TLT had a much bigger reaction than spx ES

0217
ok vix has just hit the 2124 test expected,,watching here

0212
i have an HRL buy program warning here,,, warning only not buy prog yet,, only for HRL not spx

0210
taking some sso off here at small 0.5%,,,,so will be above breakeven if stopped out

0204
but the large sell volume vs lower buy vol... risky for long

0204
also...vix has a recent history of taking awhile to recover from dbl tops intraday,, has one today

0202
3 min spx...cup n handle bullish pattern

0201
tbt getting jittery,,,moving up...

0158
i'm staying long sso thru fomc past 2pm,,,stops r set for a one cent loss

0158
VIX is very likely to test 21.29 now,,,last 21.55

0153
*43.33 stop sso, oops

0151
*stop 4336 sso

0150
bears want vix to stay over 2120 breakout area

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

momentum traders often go long on the 3rd break

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

i dont like shorting the third test of the high,,,could explode upwards if the R fails

i guess i will take 0.82% profits on 25% of HRL shares here,,,,lock in something anyways

if ES SPX is near HOD at 2pm,, risky for shorts

15min macd and stoch are rising in spx

why i have stop at breaken (plus 2 cents)....sudden drop insurance lol

i would not short this 1189 ES if we get there...likely break higher,, or at least i would wait for reaction

Moving sso stop to 4337 or 2 cents over cost,,, it either holds here or i am out

SPX is touching that DTL now resist,,, watching to see if breaks or holds

note the lower highs on the 15min vix stoch 14,3,3

TBT woke up and is now in profit zone again

HRL bull asc triangle 3min, at HOD, looking for it to break higher

SPX 3min testing a slight DTL here,,,not a steep slope at all

ES approaching 1189/90....still think it can break that higher if it gets up there

risk for bears in spx is that the 60min has a modified reverse bear flag,,, prices pointing down instead of up,,, tho the reverse bear flag (which is bullish) could convert into a bearish desc triangle

VIX has become weaker intraday,,,

sso 4349 could exit here breakeven ,, 0.35% profit,, i am holding for now

if ES gets to 1189 again, it does have good chance of breaking higher over it

spx small buy programs now

a 15min close over the prev candle high would probably confirm that setup,,,unsure

my signals n setups are close to a long daytrade, hold for over 15minutes not scalp,,, but not confirmed yet, could easily change, but is deverloping

same with tbt, near breakeven now but holding mid term that one,

i will go for possibly exit near breakeven or small profit over 43.35 vs the 1/2% loss now,,,, 60min still suggests up possible

i do have some sso, will hold unless it breaks low, or possibly exit near breakeven or small profit over 43.35

thus far, that move down did no damage to the 60min bullish spx,,,has damaged the 15min tho

HRL is holding steady thru that big spx drop, HRL near its high of day now

TBT managed to hold its rsi uptrendline for now, during the last pullback

the 3min spx does not have much of a divergence, but the 15min has a bull diverg in spx, for now...

vix is right at HOD,,,if it breaks that then spx would move down hard,,,the vix R is holding down for now

VIX at 21.10, might want 19.83 backtest (bullish spx, bear vix, short term)

Status: HRL up 0.82%,,, SSO up 0.74%,,,, TBT up 0.24% since 9:30 AM

could see 1201 spx

as expected, spx just hit 1192 target, next target 1198

still see a bounce in spx ....the 15min and 60 min need to finish their business, then after that more down for a poss swing short

tbt 15min suggests breakout in tbt today, good for quick as well as swing

In TBT long at 46.28

I like TBT for midterm hold....looking for entry

3min spx rsi still holding its trendline,,,rsi cup handle possible...still bullish for spx for lil bounce

i do see lower spx in coming hours days, this is just a quick long

i expect at least 1191 spx,,, target 1198

HRL is breaking higher here, up 0.56% so far

breakout poss in spx in 2minutes

in sso 43.30

i'll do limit 43.26 sso if filled long

HRL is right at resistance here, expecting higher but a stall here also expected, 3938

HRL is moving up nicely, daily bottoming patterns, 60min daily bull diverg, it held up during yesterdays collapse so any lil bounce in spx should be a bigger bounce in hrl

15min spx has bull divergences in it, which is why i'm waiting to reenter shorts

i am long HRL 39.23,,,, poss swing

i dont have a day short signal setup yet (day meaning close before end of day, but more than a scalp....)

i'll do MMM long 88.35 limit if filled.

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0401
i expect a lower high in spx tomorrow on bounce

0357
took 3.5% profit on the 2780--2880 spxu,,, took 8.4% on spxu bought yest 2656 to 2880 (but only on last 25% of those)

0355
sold swings,,,sold day,, spxu 2880

0350
dow at 11012, just 12 points from 11000 target

0348
ES target still 1180, same as b4,,,last 1183, holding spxu thru the end

0345
this VXX is something else,,, wont budge up despite the nice move in VIX,,,it is unreliable

0344
vix going up making new highs, without SPX new lows,,,, bearish...for tomorrow,,,,

0338
one reason i sold that spxu-- the buy vol and sell vol very close last hour....no clear bias

0336
taking profits spxu 2825,,,selling 25% spxu up here,,,dont trsust this,,,keeping the last 25% into the close at breakeven

0335
despite the move down here,,,spx 15min chartr getting stronger,,,for tomorrow

0322
spxu at 2824 target ,,,, good

selling spot here if not taken earlier,, save some of course for higher

0330
MMM struggling again

0328
i see a bounce up in spx tomorrow morning / early noon,,,,one thing that might stop spx from increase tomoroww--is the clear 60min bear pennant...if it stays in there then not much up movement, unless breaks to upside

0316
spxu lilmit sell 2824 could work here,,,i alreday sold some there b4,,, last 2812

0314
MMMM at 8829 approacing 88 target

0310
not sure,,,this could be the headfake move up mentioned earlier....

0300
taking 25% of shares off here in spxu to lock 1.5% profit as the vix slams into R

0259
MMM is UP 1% today despite big red ES candel....why i am watching for cracks in armor of the stronger MMM,,,,, holding .50 for now but precariously

0257
stops moved on spxu to 10 cents over cost on remaining spxu last entry day....last profit is 1.43% for now

0254
vix running ahead of spx now...vix near HOD...watching for reaction... vix pulls spx down vs spx pulls vix down

0252
what about intraday: ES wave 1 down, wave 2 up, now starting wave 3?

0250
usually here even if they were to take it down into the close, they would bring it up higher headfake,,,, inability to do so suggests weakness

0247
bear flag in spx 15 n 60min

0244
MMM just broke 8850 barely 8847,,,watching reactions...MMM trgt 88, then lower

0237
vix crawling up again....bear for spx

0235
MMM precarious at 88.53,,,, intraday support

0234
spxu looks strong for now,,, stoch 5,3,3 didnt even go under 20 b4 turning up,,, 14,3,3 and rsi 14 look good,,,, 3min chart

0232
if MMM doesnt hold 88.50 it likely will bring down DOW... last 88.60

0230
spx: daily chart down, 60min down, 15min neutral, 10min down

0225
taking profits for 0.85% on 25% shares in spxu

0223
ES broke,,,,1 minute late, see if it sustains

0220
2mintue warning on es break 1190

0219
MMM poss exhaustion gap

0219
qqqq MMM not looking good at

this momento

0216
If ES 1190 breaks, could trigger selling.. 3 min Boll Band lower...

0210
simple view...if the stoch 5,3,3 in 3min (not 14,3,3) hits under 20, it might trigger an "add shorts" setup,,,unsure just watching, among other indicators and chart patterns too of course

0205
theres the sell prog from warning 4 minutes ago

0204
MMM may be weakening here intraday, if it does then it could bring the DOW down

0200
i have a "sell program" warning now lol,, not actual selling,,, spx1197

0152
if the 10 and 15min charts on spx weaken then i'll add more short day, for now just using the small size

0150
this one i'm allowing a wider stop,,,, less shares,,, i still have a valid swing short setup, tho we may well go higher tomorrow as mel mentions, but my swing short still valid, so willing to have a wider stop on this entry,, i'll keep day or swing just depends on action

0148
filled on 2780 spxu

0142
i will do spxu 2780 limit, if filled

0136
spx..the 15min DTL is holding, in the RSI,,,may re-enter short spx but not yet

0123
my next daytrade will likely be short not long, but waiting,,, still got that spxu from lower levels but took loss on that last entry.... .006 % loss, small

0111
riskier trade,,, in spxu for more at 2800, stop on this piece 2787

0108
vix is right near mini intraday support here, if it holds then spx should pop down that one more time,, spx charts also say same

1259
daily down, 60min down, but 15min 10 min up, 3min down,,, why its tricky here, for spx

1257
mental stops at 2773ish spxu

1255
this is tricky now ,,,pattern still valid but weaker,,, should retest LOD or even 1180 ES

1250
that's the "up" #1 i meant before,,, should turn down here,,,

1238
still could see a move down in spx, then up,, setup still valid for that

1234
nonetheless... i will take profits in 25% more day spxu around here at 3.75% if it does not move, around es 1186

1229
in fact,,, the rsi daily is putting in a bearsish rsi failure swing, in daily timeframe that's rather strong signal

1227
in spx, the daily RSI line is making a lower low tho, compared with the last big red candle...bearish,, suggest more down after bouncing up in coming days

1225
usually in this setup, the 3min will make a small trip up in spx, then down lower, then finally the "real" bounce up

1223
tricky here..watching to see if the broken LOW in ES now becomes Resist or not,,, tho backtest should be expected up

1218
watching for possible 2873 spxu target, last 2830, HOD 2845

1215
there's the lower low and spxu overshoot over 2828 target as expected,,,, if we get es 1180 then i'll sell 25% more spxu there,, spxu last 2844

1201
i dont think LOD is in yet,,,, Low of day spx 1190.87

1158
dow is at 11051 now,, 11,000 psych support?

1157
*2656

1156
if spxu breaks 2820, it should overshoot the prior 2828 target (that i missed the fill on grr)... still have 50% spxu from 2728 and 25% from 2654

1152
VIX has broken its high from 4/16,,, ES has not broken under its 4/16 low of 1183

1142
taking profit 2.4% here,,,spxu weakening,, day spxu profit 1.75% on first 25%,,, 2.4% on second 25% (the spxu swing from 2656 is up 5.4% from yesterday on remaing 25% shares in that)

1141
when it missed the target closely like that the first time, often it overshoots the target on the 2nd try.....

1140
might sell over 2828, or under, that 25% of shares...

1136
grr limit 2828 missed by about 8 cents, not filled

1133
limit sell 25% more shares spxu 2828, from 2728 cost

1128
2828 next spxu trgt

1127
taking profits here on 25% of new spxu shares from 2728,,,,1.75% profit,,, still have the spxu swing from yest at lower price

1119
1200 spx my first main target in spxu (2780 spxu)... spx likely to stall bounce there

1047
i might do spxu 2672ish

1037
stop on VXX swing 18.83 on 75% of share to lock a 1..235% min profit if stopped,,,, stop on other 25% at breakeven-ish

1029
there is a bullish rsi failure swing in QLD 3min

1023
7163 7174 are main qld initial targets, may need to exit earlier

1021
7141 qld stall expected, last 7126

1016
QLD 2min has bull HS modified, watching that

1010
doing QLD 71.06 here

1008
GS is on a buy long signal right now, but for day not swing, but i'm not entering here, but yesterday we expected a bounce in GS today

1003
still careful long here.... vix is actually holding and not filling its gap....unlike spxu spx etc

949
took profits in spxu swing,,,stopped out 2704 from 2656 or 1.8%,,, planning on re-entereing, as always, i kept 25% of shares in spxu stop near breakeven

942
stop 2704 on spxu swing from yest,,can always re-enter

9:11
the swing signal setup to go short i got yesterday is manifesting itself here.. ES down 7 thus far... watching the open carefully to see if gap fills

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 26, 2010

Monday ramblings

0359
closing out rest of BAC day at LOD here 1805,,, for profits of .6% to 1%,,,expected more but narrow range day.

0347
i'm going to keep some vxx as swing, day some,,,, vxx requires caution tho in holding for long periods

0342
VXX at 1863 looks good here

0331
might short GS for day at 152.75 if able

0324
1812 is a decent BAC stop to lock profits, last 1810

0322
BAC falling very nicely toward the 1785ish trgt

0311
BAC broke the low of day, as expected.... still have 25% share but was unable to reshort at 1821

0309
i have a swing short setup valid with stop under LOD today.. could go higher first in spx but setup signals are there, again,, at spxu 26.56

0206
testnig the LOD in BAC now,,expecting it to break and get to lwoer targets

0303
looking for BAC to stay under 1823, mental stop there to take profits on remaining 25%

0300
taking profits,,,,covering BAC here at 1815,,, can always re-short on the bcaktest,,, will keep just 25% and cover the rest

0257
i remain short thru the backtest up since it may just get to the target lower instead

0256
BAC just broke south under its coil...bearish for now... will prob backtest

0255
BAC is STILL inside its coil, narrowewr and narrower....

0231
VIX is still up for the day now 3.5% so bias is vix up

0231
the 15min VIX boll bands are really narrow tight now,,, large move either way could come

0222
BAC triangle support held, now meandering back up toward the coil's resistance

0205
BAC testing the triangle coil support now,,,has held thus far but looking for it to break under 1820 toward the LOD and lpower

0155
BAC is coiling in 10min, might need to wait until tomorrow for it to makes its real move up or down,

0149
VIX looks like it wants to test the HOD

0143
1792/1782 is my target in bac

0142
covering 25% of BAC here to lock some profits at support 1819

0137
i have a swing short via SDS SPXU or short SPY setup,,, as long as SDS stays over 28.20. sds 2851, spx 1216

0134
BAC sell program

0124
small es asc triangle 3min

0114
if BAC doesnt go down soon then i will cover half here for breakeven / 2 cents profit to reduce risk.. it should break 1825 here else somethings not right

0106
BAC still looks lower to me, last 1826

1259
MM dropping the bids on BAC, for now... easily could change we know

1257
as expected,, small sell prog here now in BAC, down 4 cents,, still looking for lower BAC

1251
my software is giving a warning of poss selling program in bac in coming minutes

1247
Parabolic SAR 15min is almost ready to throw a short signal,,not yet but close

1228
spx targets if rsi failure swing works.... 1211,,,1209,, later 1194

1226
the 15min spx has a bearish RSI failure swing

1224
instead of 3min,, been trading the 15min and 60min charts to try to avoid some of that whipsaw

1156
spy is stretching the lower BB,,, 3min, bearish,, it didnt just pop under it suddenly, slower is better (for shorts)

1153
small sell programs here

1121
spxu 2632 looks good with tite stop

1120
vix is falling here but still up 3% since yest....watching this here

1053
es 1214 short could work here,,im stilll waiting

1046
addding bac 1833 short here,,,hit the 1831 target from b4,,, avg bac short 1827

1039
startting some BAC short at 1820 here, may add more later 1831,, unsure if it gets 1831 so starting now

1018
ES it could break LOD here

1004
ES starting to make that lil pop up...still looking to short into it, not yet

1001
looks like it will pop up a little,,, then go down,,, looking to short into next pop up

948
BAC limit short 1831 looks good if filled

947
sds 2838 limit looks good if filled, last 2849,, already short via spxu swing

940
looking for short entry in BAC, none yet

936
BAC weaker here,,,,

932
VIX has gapped up to 17.50, watching to see if it holds or not,, bearish for spx if it holds up

838 AM
Nasdaq A/D line made a

lower low on Friday when Nasdaq prices

increased,, the A/D line turns down first,

suggesting lower Nasdaq

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 23, 2010

SPX decline coming?

See chart below.

Double click on the chart to view a larger version.

$BPSPX - Daily Candlesticks

$BPSPX - Daily Candlesticks: "

via StockCharts.com

"

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0450
daily bearish rsi:price divergence on spx

0400
VIX has a small hammer and closed green today

0353
VIX HIT 1647 target just now...watching reaction here

0345
vix 1643,,,1647 target....

0331
1637 last vix,,,target 1647 or higher,,,

0325
2656 spxu could work here,,,2681 target

0302
i think we see at least 1211 spx b4 the close, down from 1214.87

0252
ES made a new high, vix didnt make a new low, higher low vix

0250
VIX could close green today,,,is red now

0244
VIX moving up here now in 3 min,,,, from 1620 to 1633

0231
my charts and short signals and setup stronger here

0224
waiting on BAC,,, will not automatically short even if it gets 1851

0221
some sellers 1 min ago

0218
1851 short on bac could work if bac gets there,,,, 1842 last,,, not filled on 1845,,, will wait for maybe 1851

0210
changing to short 1845 for now instead, if able

0209
short bac 1840

0201
short signal stronger now... my charts n signals say stay short, lower spx in minutes is poss

0156
vix is creeping up as spx rises...watching to see if vix or spx falls from here,,,still short spx

0155
my charts still support short spx for now BUT the last move up had high volume, which is bothersome if short,,, signal could change in 3 minutes but still short setup for now

0150
sds,,,,spx short trade still valid for now to me

0145
BAC has a bear HS now in 3min

0143
trying sds here at 2880

0120
out of bac at one cent profit / breakeven, momentum declining, will wait for another entry long or short after it decides where to go,,,,

0107
bac trgt 1850 1859 1883,,, expect down in BAC in coming days, but could pop up there first

0105
momentum play in BAC LONG could work here at 1841,,,for 1850ish trgt

1216
spx looks good for short here,,,, bear diverg on 3min, ES 1205

1212
out of BA for now at 7499 vs 7477...the prices are jumping around too much.,,,,, only good for longer term hold which i don't want with this,

1210
BA stop 7484 to ride higher for free,,, small profit guar....

1207
BA breaking higher here....still long

1152
BA looks good here for a quick long at 7477, i'm in

1150
i am evaluating csco hpq in tech for poss long,,,also poss mrk ba long,,,still short spx for "all day"

1134
vix moving up,,,,1653 stall 1670 likely,,spx bias still down

1128
short spx still looks good for holds over 30minutes

1114
bac stop 1842, only breakeven (actually 2 cent profit) if stopped but free ride if not stopped

1105
bac target 1813

1103
raising stop in bac to 1842, for free ride (or 2 cent profit worst if stopped out)

1102
well we are surely getting the whipsaw that we expected at 930 AM,,, SPX down again now

1101
ES possible dbl top 3 min with lower 3nd top / desc triangle,, 1210 and 1208 highs

1058
ES 60 min has a huge bear shooting star,

1029
shorted bac 1844

1023
bac hit 1845 but i was not filled grr

1021
limit short BAC 1845 if able, last 1842

958
i might consider long sso 4471 but not here at 4476 / ES 1204

951
15min chart bias is down, 60min bias up, daily bias down..... if the 60 turns down then i'll heavily short but not till then,,, smalller positions till then

949
my charts suggest whipsaw for now with a downward bias, for holds 15min -- 4 hours

922
SP500 Bullish Percent Index is still pointed DOWN even after yesterdays green candle. suggest lower spx in coming hours or days. further, it made a high, then a lower high. rarely does this turn down without at least a 10 point pullback in spx, but it correctly called the ~50 and ~100 point pullbacks

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0347
spxu might want that2678/ 2680 target from before

0333
if i were nervous i'd exit spxu trade into close here at breakeven,,,still see possible down so will take the calc risk and hold

326
i willl trade 2711 spxu into the close,,,, other spxu is swing

0323
charts still suggest to me this could turn down in next 30minutes, amazingly

0321
should pullback now here, or in next 1pt up, es last 1203.75

0311
es short 1201.50 could

work nice

0308
the rsi will generally breakout b4 the prices do

0307
the 3min rsi has a bear failure swing spx, one reason why i went in spxu

0306
in spxu 2724

0233
if spxu gets 2678 i'll prob buy down there

0233
stopped out in faz spxu, loss

0224
poss mini dbl top 1202ish ES

0217
thus far daily ES has lower hi and lower low today vs yest

0211
looking for a mini bear HS to form in ES 1198/1202 3min

0206
i'm getting preliminary "short to hold for hours / poss swing" setups and signals here, not confirmed but forming, at spx 1203

0126
vix day candle is red but up 2.5% cuz of gap up this morn

1259
vix moving up now as spx moves up, 3min,, could send the spx down, last spx 1197

1258
mini bull inv HS 3min sds 2941/2951ish

1232
i will do faz 1168 limit if able

1210
stopped out of scalp breakeven on remaining shares (2 cents over cost)... took small profit on scalp earlier,,,, still have swing sds 2904 and spxu 2812 swing

1203
as long as prices are under 60min moving averages, its much easier to short today, cuz u can "wait it out"... the contratrend longs u cannot do that cuz they are against the longer timeframe 60min down bias

1202
as long as prices under 5 15 20 MA on spx 60min, bias is down for me,,, right now they are under even the lowly 5 MA

1150
some sell programs in financials

1149
scalp target might be higher than 2823 for spxu...watching....

1125
spxu scalp stop 2784 or 2 cents over cost for now,, taking partial profits here to lock some profit but still have 2823ish target

1116
spxu moving up, target for scalp 2823, higher targets for other spxu

1107
i'm looking for a lower low, and then a bull diverg to setup on 3min spx

1101
stop 2767 on the spxu entry last

1100
i will do 2782 spxu scalp here

1052
getting close to adding more spxu,,,not yet

1023
es might want 1193 but that should hold it down short term, last 1191.50

1020
i believe the low of day is not set, we will see a lower low me thinks, in spx

1019
bear flag spx now, 3min

1018
daily spy--- island reversal

top...see it?

1000
i've entered the spxu layering on the premise that this is gap n go, if it is then it will work, if not then will get stopped out and re-enter

959
spxu filled at 2812

958
layering in some spxu 28.12 if able, limit order

941
looks like a gap n go today, possible confirmation of prior exhaustion gap up i mentioned yesterday

937
sds bought at close yesterday up 2 % now

9:19

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

0359
29.04 sds for swing, new entry

0341
BA stop at 7423, just 2 cents under cost,,,, took 25 cents profit already on some of it

0339
BAC profits all taken except 25% shares remain at breakeven stop around 1855ish

0330
scalping profits on 25% BA at 7447 here,,,easy 24 cents

0321
LONG in BA 7425

0255
locking some BAC profits here,, about 2% profit

0242
took profits in half faz at 1178

1178

0237
bac 1803 and 1784 targets....nice move down

0230
if vix breaks higher here, could get fireworks,,,vix testing R

0229
1164 stop on half faz

0219
stop 1154 on faz... 25% shares

0217
nice...1831 bac nbext target,,,broke 1840

0215
stop on 25% shares at 1144 to lock some profits there

0212
locking in small profitst here bac 1845 right at yest low, covering 25% shares

0211
not expecting BAC to break 1845 on first try, but its trying now testing

0208
bac at 1846....see if it bounces or not...still short

0205
BAC will prob be slow down UNLESS it breaks 18.41

0204
wow bac keeps going down but very slowly,,, 1851 last

0201
stop at 18.58 for BAC,,,

0158
BAC continues down....

0153
if bac does not stall at 1845, it suggests every weak,,,should stall there...last 1853

0151
1845 next bac target ...last 1853

0150
possible nac break in comoing minutes

0142
bears and bulls fighting right here at this leve,,, still have bearish bias intraday

0133
es has 15min down channel, watching to see if it holds

0111
2 minutes later, as expected, BAC just broke support but only by 2 cents,,,new LOD,,, watching for more downside

0109
BAC is testting support here,,,it has held thus far today,, charts suggest a break lower tho

0106
ES 60min bear shoot star, needs a 60 min close under 1201 to confirm

0100
ES volume is higher today thatn yesterday,,,,often the down red days are the ones on higher volume

1205
doing faz 11.29

1133
nervous BAC short would cover here, i remain short bac

1127
VIX hit its target from an hour ago

1109
sell programs in financials, again

1103
if ES 1201 breaks, could see a 5 point move down

1059
financials sell program now, moderate size

1033
xlf intraday flat, suggests lower xlf

1030
vix target 1631, last 1584 but near some R here

1019
some selling prog in BAC here at 1877

936
comments might be sparse today. still working on this new software for trading that I am developing.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0321
vix moving up, retesting that 1620,,,still not made the 1631 target from b4

0316
shorting BAC with tite stop low risk at 1856

0233
sell programs in finanancials

0216
a swing signal setup is forming in FAZ now, 80% complete, not confirmed yet,,,,watching it to see if i'll add to faz swings

0210
vix headed for 1630 target ...last 1617

0207
and also as expected, ES broke the 1202 lower,,,

0206
there it is,,,, faz has broken the 1157,,,, 1177 target IF IT SUSTAINS over the break

0159
bullish 5 methods in faz 3 min, 5 bar candle pattern

0146
here's the faz 1157 test....expecting it to break hihgher this time still

0136
expecting ES to break 1202 next test of it

0134
faz should break higer over 1157 on this next test here,,, last 1155

0126
3min desc triangle ES

0124
3min ES weakening diverging with this advance up tho

0112
vix at 1603 now,,looks headed to 1631

1249
the ES 60 and 15 min are starting to roll over now, we might have seen high of day...1205 high in ES so far

1244
volume increasing somewhat here

1239
3min bear diverg in spx should give a pullback

1234
15min ES bear shooting star,,,see if it does anything

1157
vix is testing yest low near 1611,,,,needs to hold here else a break

1120
vix moving up as spx moves up, 3min

1058
i have an sds signal now,

at 2917,,, es 1200

stop under LOD or 2912 if tighter desired

1039
faz filled its gap down,,,, vix has not filled but looks like it wants to, in coming hours

1034
filled on the extra faz 1173 from the decline at 1178 as expected

1031
faz at 1178 now,,,i'll add more at 1173 if able if it goes down a lil for a minute

1030
FAZ willl likely stall at 1178 b4 getting the 1187 target,,,last 1175

1023
1186 first faz target from 1171, last 1174

1009
my faz trade is meant to hold for 15min-6hours unless lows are taken out (stop)

955
xlf red today since open, spx green

950
adding faz here at 11.71

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 19, 2010

Monday ramblings

0356
buuying more faz 1188, close enough

0354
faz approaching my other buy zone 1188 from 3 hours ago

0350
vix at support here 1763,,,watching what it does

0315
faz getting stronger here....

249
1209 faz, first position of poss 2 or 4

236
faz limit 1187 buy, if able,,, might pay more later, last 12.10

227
i'm switching to faz not sds for next short entry if i make one

210
bull inv hs in 3min VIX, bearish for spx

202
we could see a vertical 5-7 point drop from the parabolic setups if they play out

200
15min parabolic sell signals in the spx, with limited downside first try tho

159
should retest LOD in spx

157
3min boll bands being stretched in spx,,,bearish,,, this is same setup that went for a successful trade earlier today

155
i have an "exit long day" setup signal warning now, 80% confirmed

154
133t also has the bear M

153
asc triangle destroyed in spx

153
1min bear M in the spx,, bullish W from earlier in 3min destroyed

152
financials being sold finally here

151
at Support here in the 3min spx, needs to break lower, should breka lower

140
watching for possible bull W in 3min spx, still short

1:35
in sds 2995

1:32
i will limit buy sds 29.93 if able

0114
cancelling buy sso for now, was not filled

0109
sso limit 43.17 if able, last 43.22

1238
filled on 30.03 sds

1236
*30.03

1235
sds 30.01 stop 29.,95 is low risk here, adding more if able at 3001

1209
close...missed by 3 cents being stopped out,,, still in

1207
*2995 stop

1206
stop 75% remaining shares in sds at 29.96 to lock profits, will keep the last 25% at breakeven stop lower around .64

1159
selling a piece here,,,1.5% profit

1158
ES target 1181, last 1182.50

1156
vix target 1968, last 1917

1156
vix is moving higher here again,, ahead of the spx going lower....

1155
taking 1% profits here in sds on 25% of shares

1154
15min sell setups still in place, 60min sell setups forming but immature still

1152
we should stall here,,,if not, spx very weak at 1187

1151
sds target of 30.00 hit here,,,not selling yet,,,

1148
spx at support now,,,this one is kinda impt....1188

1143
charts suggest spx break lower now, then form bull diverg n bounce up, spx 1189.50 last

1140
likely to test friday low now in spx

1129
i'm staying short via sds still at 2985, cost 2964, stop 2964, taking profits here on half of shares if it starts to move down,, 0.75%

1121
looking for es to hold 1188 R

1105
breaking higer, next target is HOD .91

1104
if sds doesnt break higher here 2977 i will prob exit 50% shares

1103
es spx held support but 3min charts bearish, sell setups on 15min,,,so staying long to see what happens, can always exit near breakeven or small loss/pr

1057
as expected, sds breaking higher...see if it holds....

1055
usually when it pushes the boll band like that it will retreat, then break higher

1054
the sds is stretching the 3min boll bands here at R,,,,could break higher,,, lower spx warning on my sys

1038
mini sell programs here es 1188

1037
watching to see if 2974 stalls sds,,whether it can break over it,, if not i will likely take lil profit and reenter

1029
sds llooks ready to break higher so paid lil more

1027
in sds 29.60, paid premium

1023
i'll buy sds 2956 if able, short term

1020
stopped out of half sso ,,, took profits,,,will reenter later

1017
stop 4388

1015
if sso doesnt break higher here soon at 4393 i will sell up here and reenter

1014
stop 4378 on 50% of sso shares

1011
sso stop moved to 4368 for guar small profit plus free ride up

1003
close to first target 4396, about 4 cents away,,, watching for reaction before deciding whether to sell here

1001
i still have 15min and 60min buy signals for now, will look to short later maybe

953
4396 first sso target, last 4370, cost 4351

948
i am in sso 43.51

9:26 AM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 16, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0355
monday could be a small range day as market decides what it wants,,, or another large red candle, will be intersting,,, a large green candle is not likely,,, doji, big red candle, or bull harami are likely on monday

0345
back in sds

0345
out of sds,,,11 cent loss

0340
close to stopping out...will do manually

0337
selling half of sds at .71 if able, to lock at least small profit

0327
the next test of es 1188,,,it should crack it lower

0323
15:34 PM is my expected movement, using current velocity

0305
2957 stop....10 cents risk

0259
vix is not waking up here,,,,small candles...

0249
adding more sds here 2958

0246
given that bias is down, might not need a divergence to turn back down on 3min

0212
there is a 3min bear diverg setting up now, and the daily bias is already down, so took profits in the long sso and remain short the sds for now

0210
exiting sso for profits here,,,4389

0208
i'm still in sds now,,,cuz i have the sso hedge,,,sso was not stopped out b4

0157
poss bull inv HS in spx 3min

0154
2963 sds stop for now

0151
time series F slope is near flat,,,so trick whipsaw here possible

0148
3min macd bear diver macd hist forming here

0143
i dont yet have an exit short pos signal setup,,,just a warning,,waiting... usually with the warnings, when the exit signal triggers, can use limit order to exit with small profit or breakeven, if exit triggers

0142
getting choppy here now .......might exit the sds n re-enter,,, no clear long or short now for me,,,,but i'll wait a few minutes to act

0139
if sds can get over 3002, next target is 3032, last 29.80

0137
on the 133t chart sds,,,, it broke under its uptrend line, and is now trying to backtest back up (inverse for spx)

0134
sso stop set near breakeven,,, that was a dud trade, only 0.3% profit,,, the shorts have returned nicely tho

0133
there's a bullish hammer in spx 60minute,,,but my work suggests bears will repair that

0129
hold time minutes hours,,,maybe swing

0128
paying premium,,,in sds 2975 starter position 1 of poss 2, position 50% half size for now

0123
i'll buy sds again at 29.67 limity

0108
sds hit 30.00, right near the 30.02ish target,,, just 2 cents away

1259
i still have a long spx setup, hold time minutes hours

1258
sold 25% sso 43.61 to lock some profits

1247
limit sell some sso 4363 to take a small profit, 25% of shares

1230
i'm in sso now but plan to re-enter sds later,,,still have 25% sds

1218
trying sso 4350 here

1213
not filled yet,,,,4354 last sso

1210
i will buy long sso 4342 limiti if filled

1206
stopped out,,, profits locked,,,still have 25% left... will prob try a long soon but not yet

1204
stop raised now to 2981 from 2973

1202
there's the test of LOD i expected b4,,watching here now

1202
but thats 25 cents from my real target 3003ish

1201
2973 stop to lock profits, on hlaf of remaing shares,,,,

1157
still in the remaining spxu....stop missed by 3 cents

1154
*2966

1154
2967 stop in sds,,,,equiv in spxu

1153
2865ish spxu trgt still,,, 30.03ish sds target

1148
still looks like test LOD in order soon,,possible break lower

1137
need to take profits as they come in this mkt... i've taken some but holding 75% still,,, will sell another 25% around here if doesnt break low

1134
i'm waiting for retest of LOD, possible break lower,,,think we get a lower low today

1132
close to 2863 target first on spxu now...watching for possible sale of some more shares but not all

1130
good it turned down there 1191 as expected

1128
if move is strong,,,should go back down now here at 1191 ES

1124
charts suggest LOD not in yet,,, one more push down at least

1117
wow blew past 1840 while typing

1116
vix blew right past

the 1820 target, at 1836 now,,, ,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...

1114
2865ish trgt on spxu,,,more precise target later,,last 2797

1113
the spx is setting up that 3 day bear candle pattern mentioned 2 days ago... this is day 3 today,,, so far setup is there,,, needs confirmation on day 4,5,6

1111
vix targets 1821,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...

1110
if vix breaks 1787 then 1821 vix next,,, testing 1787 now,,,pullback would be normal but could go for 1821 first

1103
10 min spx getting lil stronger but no "cover shorts" signal yet,,, my timeframe is hours/days tho,,, 60min says "stay short"

1100
tho dow is "only" down 50 points, not much really, could easily see triple digit dow loss today

1058
vix at 1784 R now,,, 1840 and 1867 R would be next,,,, if 1867 is broken higher, then fireworks...

1055
spx could go lower than 1200 so keeping for now,,, ES targets 1192 and 1190

1054
i dont have an exit short-term shorts setup yet,,,,keeping 75% of shares of the spxu for now still, at 27.70,, selling some here to take profits

8:56 AM
The mini bear HS in ES continues and is still valid from 1:12 AM.... as long as 1207.50 Resistance holds. A break of the 1200 support is needed. Next R over 1207.50 is 1210.50. Last ES 1204.50, down 4 points.

1:12 AM
mini bear HS poss in ES 60min chart, target 1192 on a break of 1200

01:11 AM
ES down 6.25 pts at 1202 now

Asian Shares Slip; Google, AMD Weigh On Japanese Tech Stocks

Hong Kong declines as China property stocks slide

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0342
stop 2696 on half of spxu to lock at least some profit

0322
charts suggest lower in coming minutes

0320
spxu here at 2683 looks good,

0309
that was quick, out

of fas, loss of 0.28%

0305
fas stop 117.17,,, will be about 0.25% loss if stopped out

0253
doing FAS at 117.51

0240
again today: vix green, dow spx green... vix "sell spx dow" signal if it closes like that

0149
entered spxu 2683 here

1104
back...my data feeds were down grr,,,, TDA... stopped out of spxu 2683, will re-enter long or short maybe later

1014
some mild buying in finan now

1009
*1207.50

1009
mild selling in the financial stocks here, as es at 1107.50

1002
vix just dropped

955
it would be interesting if es fails to make 1207.50,,,last 1206

943
i'll add spxu at ES 107.50 if it gets there

938
entered spxu 2705

935
VIX is up right now, 3min chart

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

0423
fwiw,,,, there was just a spy sale...119.85 spy, 1 million shars, at 16:21 PM, red,,, this is generally bearish for next day or so, to hit the 119.85 during 930-4pm

0408'
i'm not sure,,,need to check records,,, but i think today was the "worst" day for my auto-trading system since Jan 1

0406
exited AA at loss.... 3 cents

0341
today this is the farthest from the 5 MA daily that ES has been since March 8

0216
spx 3 min broke its UTL lower, then back up to backtest it,,, triple bear diverg on 3min spx

0211
spx at 1206 is OVER its DAILY bollinger band of 1204

0204
big red vix candle now, cancelled out previous green one

0203
i have a swing short spx via long spxu setup here, as long as it is over 26.93

0159
1617 is intraday R for vix....

0158
big green candle in vix just now,3min from 1586 to 1618

0146
ES just put in the largest red candle since 10am,,,on 15min chart,,,but its only a 2 point candle

0144
AA at support here,,,watching if it holds 1434,, a break under 1432 could trigger stops down

1250
shorting AA 1439

1239
to clarify,,, .. i meant the vix candle is green, sorry,,, the vix itself down 2% today

1237
even with that last spx pop up, vix is still green for day

1208
3min bull fla in the vix is bearish for spx at 1204

1203
shorting more spy here,,, spxu vol is too low,, at spxu 2742

1201
spxu here 2742 trade is still valid, to me

1156
should get sell signal by 12:01

1154
4 minutes later, the drop has started,,, spx 1201 and 1197 my initial targets

1149
charts suggest pullback in coming minutes, spx last 1205

1145
vix just shot up, relatively, 3min

1143
addind spxu here 2737.. avg now 2742

1130
spxu 3735 looks good,,,, i already have some

from 3747,,,if not i would buy here

1129
this last move up here is suspicious looking,,, still think pulls back some,, spx 1205

1106
should see a pullbakc here,,, spx 1203.77

1102
close to sell signal on 3min spx,,,at 1203.92

1052
entering spxu 2747

1039
60 min bear diverg setting up in spx, not finished yet.... 10 min diverg bearish near completion

1030
exited sds 2925, loss of 2 cents

1016
exiting fas 114.53, breakeven on fas (2 cent profit)
entering fas 11.38

1011
inv HS forming on 60min vix, bullish vix, bearish spx, in coming hours

1004
big red bar in vix...its shifting around here now ... i likely will exit FAS before SDS

1002
in sds 29.27 short term trade

959
big green vix bar, 3 min

9:31
in fas at 113.51, short term trade

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0356
limit 1858 cover BAC

0355
doing some spxu for swing at 27.81

0334
suggests possible move down in spx

0334
on that last move up,,, vix declined much less than spx advanced

0303
vix 60min chart is bullish, suggests lower spx in coming hours (tomorrow)

0258
i remain short BAC 1865

0257
exiting cat, breakeven (about 10 cent profit on $66),,, too many positions to watch here into the close so taking the CAT off

0217
Filled on BAC short 1865

0208
shorting BAC again limit 1865 if filled.

0201
LONG in CAT 6626

0152
exiting dxd 2562,,, for 1 cent loss,,, maybe re-enter later,,,doesnt look right

0141
AA testing LOD here,, 1407

0135
short AA 1414

0132
right now, i like the dow short more than spx short, hence the dxd instead of more spxu

0120
doing dxd 2563 here,,,shorting DOW

1246
an alternative would be to set stop loss at 2813,,,last 2815

1244
selling half of remaining shares 2816 vs 2808,,,small profit but allows me to lower stop on remaining shares..... now have 25% shares left

1236
stop lowered to 28.00 for now, mental stop, on half of remaining shares (25%) spxu

1227
stoploss on remaining 50% shares of spxu set at breakeven, can always reenter,, at 2808

1152
BAC getting wacked

hard

1122
es should pull back here from 1189

1102
spxu here at 2832 looks good for scalp

1050
spxu 2824 limit could work if filled

1039
SPX now has possible 3 day candle pattern of bear eve star, needs confirmation on day 4 tomorrow,,,

1038
vix at R now,,,poss stall,,, might sell some more spxu here 2847, unsure

1036
looks like spx has more unfinished biz on downside in coming hours,,, last 1190

1032
selling spxu 2837 here from 2808 cost,,, 25% more shares, have 50% shares left

1030
heres that move down,,,watching how far it goes

1023
taking profits on 25% of shares into strength here, spxu 2826 vs 2808 cost

1022
theres the new low in spx, as expected

0109
3min spx coiling

1003
small sell programs, spx 1194

1000
spx should make a lower intraday low,

947
i will try limit spxu 2808 if filled

938
VIX at gap R now, trying to break higher over it

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 12, 2010

Monday ramblings

0359
they will close dow 11000+

0349
selling half spxu here 2804,,locking profits

0333
spx moved down with more velocity than VIX moved up, on that last move down...

0248
back in spxu 2786

0157
exiting at 1876, breakeven. did not break out over HOD, can always buy it back later

0112
BAC moving up nicely, stopped out of 2nd spxu for small loss, small gain on first spxu, so around breakeven today on spxu ... i will look for re-entry in spxu later

0102
stop 2780 on the spxu

1248
buying more BAC 1874 limit if filled

1245
trading the BAC for possible blow off top today,,, to hit a higher high over 1886

1230
filled on bac 1876

1228
LONG BAC 1876 if filled limit

1219
Possible VIX roadmap in coming hours / days: 15.35 up to 15.60 up to 16.65 then down to 1597 then up to 1780 / 1812

1209
vix testing its first R here now

1153
vix target intraday is 1580 then 1602, last 1554

1152
vix 15min bullish consolod here at 15.54

1149
small sell programs here

1122
but for now, spx keeps making higher lows intraday,,,,looking to see if that changes

1120
vix is helping push spx down here some, as expected. last spx 1196

1118
small sell programs here now

1116
VIX suggests intraday pullback in spx, last 1197.62

1115
also poss bull asc triangle spx 3min

1114
spx has an inverse 3 min bull flag, wrong way so could be bearish sign, for coming minutes / hours

1108
intraday vix 3min is basing now, slightly bullish

1054
15min and 60min bear diverg forming but unconfirmed on spx , hence my short via spxu

1051
stopped out of spxu before,,,near breakeven, small profit,,,, will re-enter spxu 2780 limit if able, last 2789

1025
stop 2791 for spxu, a little over cost

952
went in at 2789

949
i will try SPXU 27.88 limit if filled, last 2791

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 9, 2010

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0214
bac moving up here

0205
DISNEY is up 1.6% today... all those unemployed going there for now,, till their checks run out

0201
1840ish next bac trgt,,,last 1850, new LOD

0157
more BAC selling prog 1853

0132
bac sell program here at 1857, small one for now

0116
vix moving higher, bullish chart 15miin vix, 60min vix

0110
shorting BAC 1857 again, stop 1862

0106
exiting bac long 1858 vs 1861 entry,,,small loss there,,,, still have 19 cent profit from this morn short

1217
still in bac long at last 1860, my work suggests a pop up still, even with the recent small move down. Then i plan to re-short again later at higher levels, after selling the longs

1135
buying bac LONG for the bounce up here,, 1860

1133
covered rest of BAC, will re-short later, took profits,,,

1113
VIX 3 min bull asc triangle

1108
Locking 1% profits on BAC,,,still have half

1104
covering some at 1854

1100
BAC at support here at 1851,,,if it doesnt break now then i'll cover some more shorts to take profits,,,will keep half of shares tho

1058
BAC trying to break LOD again here at 1852

1039
vix moving up here, ahead of spx falling

1034
BAC falling more,,,

1853 LOD now

1033
BAC falling more,,, 1853 LOD now

1024
BAC continues falling, at LOD now, 1864

950
1863 next bac trgt

949
taking profits on 25% of bac shares here,,, 15 min trade,,, 0.7% profit

946
bac target 1867 first

942
shorting the bac again this morn, at 1880

934
BAC is being sold this morning

9:07 AM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0242
BAC has bear desc triangle 3 min, for now

0206
vix moving up ahead of spx down here,,,watching to see if spx goes down,,, spx 1186 last

0157
Bearish 2pm shotting star 60 min ES

0119
1878 and 1886 are other poss short areas

0119
filled on 1872 BAC short, and 1869, avg 1871

0117
BAC is hitting 1872 but no fill yet,,,might need to hit 1873 to fill, this is an example of when a simulator would fill the order but real-time would NOT fill it

0115
adding more BAC short if able at 1872 limit

1257
i am shorting BAC day here 1869

1133
mini bull tiger sds if it holds 30.40, trgt 30.54, last 30.43

1131
bull crouching tiger setup in sds forming, not complete yet

1123
its easier to see it on 2minute chart

1119
bear HS 3min spx setting up, spx last 1179

10:59
a close below yesterday's low would be bearish, and confirm a bear eve star 3 day candle pattern (confirm on 4th day, today)

9:07

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Sparse comments, software testing

I continue to develop and test trading software this week, so comments have been sparse lately. Will post updates of the software I am programming and de-bugging later.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

345
conditional order on half of tza shares.... sell at 6.53 stop or 6.63 limit

315
nervous faz would take 3% profits now, i'm staying,,,selling 25% of shares for 3% profit

314
nervous tza swings would take profits here at 1% profit, i'll stay in tza swing

0312
stop 30.44 on half of sds to lock in profits

0231
sds 30.13 stop for now, can always buy it back

0227
sds targets are at 3015, 3024, 32.44 with stall at each

0143
ES still looks like it wants another pop up from 1184 before going down today

0143
As expected, ES did go over 1185 to 1186, tho only by 1 point
0116
ES looks like it has more upside over 1185

1245
VIX moving up some here,, spx last 1186

1048
but tza swing is green

1047
stopped out of tna hedge against the tza swing,,,still in tza swing, took loss on day tna

1043
5946 stop on tna day

10:28
in TNA 6016 for day,,, still in tza swing

9:32
GM

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

Tuesday's ramblings

0251
INTC is down 0.75% today

0247
BAC short is red 1.4% for now, expecting turn down in coming hours days

0225
should pullback here,,, spx at 1190 last

0205
1,2, or 1,2,3 after FOMC minutes....
#1 = up (usually reverses)

0203
for select blue chip stocks,,,, MM on the ask, selling

0134
BAC sell prgm 1826

0134
vix jumped back down to 1651

0117
vix popped 1655 to 1665,,,,see if it has any effect in spx

0110
BAC increasing but data suggests they are selling into this in medium size blocks

1235
BAC support at 1817, last 1824
, currently red in the BAC

1054
bought in TZA 6.57

1047
bac 1807 first trgt, last 1817

1023
adding BAC shorts at 18.17

here 1817,,,,1002
bear flag 3 min spx, last 1184

934
sds R, stall at 3036 expected, ok,,, last 3030

932
*correction BAC is not in profit, slightly red now, sds is green

9:28
sds bac both green now, new swings from yest, nervous tradders would take profits now before market open, or at mkt open, i'm holding them longer

9:22 AM
still testing software, might be sparse comments today

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 30, 2010

Thursday, April 29, 2010

Wednesday, April 28, 2010

Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Monday, April 26, 2010

Friday, April 23, 2010

Thursday, April 22, 2010

Wednesday, April 21, 2010

Tuesday, April 20, 2010

Monday, April 19, 2010

Friday, April 16, 2010

Thursday, April 15, 2010

Wednesday, April 14, 2010

Tuesday, April 13, 2010

Monday, April 12, 2010

Friday, April 9, 2010

Thursday, April 8, 2010

Wednesday, April 7, 2010

Tuesday, April 6, 2010

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