Wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

358
selling .31,,,or 6 cents under the .37 trgt from 9AM

354
b4 close i'm selling all KO except 25% at breakeven stop,, profits locked on KO

344
limit buy tza 3353 if filled,,,,prob wont get a fill but its there in case it drops

0310
es marginally got the 3min close ....watching now to see if it hits HOD and makes marginal new HOD

0309
KO now only 10 cents from .37 target,,,maybe stretch to .50 today????

0306
1074 es has held...also watching for a 3min close over 1077 still,,may get it in next 6min

0252
*down is finished

0251
if the FAZ limit gets filled today,,,it could go even lower in coming days but the risk is low since it should at least bounce up higher than the entry, after the move down is donw

0241
also TMBR is not around right now on KO selling,,,"should" go higher since TMBR generally sells KO lower (and buys higher),,, tmbr more "active"

0239
taking 25% more of KO off here at .25 just to lock something,,,still have 50% of shares left

0236
hmm GSCO goldman has put in a new sell on Level 2 at 5738 which is one cent over my 5737 swing target from yest,,,,i guess their target is same,,,for now (changes a lot)...

0231
i will only get "enter swing short early" today,,,theres not enough time to get a confirmed "enter swing shorts" today,,, unless the extreme upside targets are hit which would allow entry early

0229
3min tna close over 3701 should propel it to HOD and higher mayb

0228
watch for a 3min close over 1077...it would be bullish

0227
careful short....hammer 3min es,, right above its 1074 support

0223
so its an early signal,,,far from being confirmed,,that does allow short entries but ONLY at extremes, like the faz 1468

0221
usually this setup i have,,,moves sideways or more up,,and creates havoc with bull and bears alike till resolved

0219
spx swing short setup is putting in the first sign finally of "getting tired now"....still no confirmed entry,,, more up still poss

0207
there goes KO,,,new HOD,,,watching to see if can make the upper targets

0206
KO 3 cents from HOD now...

0202
i still dont see the faz 1468 limit buy being filled today,,,1500ish will prob hold, but i'll take a small piece if filled

0200
Buy program signal for coca-cola...watching to see if it pushes it to the .37 trgt and higher,,hard to believe but its there, at KO 5710 last

0155
that faz bear trap at 1540 played out,,,last 1513 faz

0149
the "hold long all day today" signal remains (triggered on yest swing overnite long)

0148
volume picking up now,,so direction here up/down could be directino for rest of day into the close

0125
faz continues down towards 1500/1468 target

0123
cancelling the KO more at .04,,,just running with curr positino

0117
i will limit buy more KO for scalp,,, limit 5704 stop 5695 if able,,no fill yet,,,still have other KO from lower prices this is scalp additino

0116
want more BAC short but havent entered yet,,,i exited it all other day 12.34 as posted,, missed the 1218/20 low to exit

0105
1074 ES seems key # short term,,held thus far a lil over it

0102
5 cents away from stopout on KO but i'm keeping it for now to lock profit, not changing,,can always buy back

1255
they r getting ready to poss spring the bear trap mentinoed 1 hr ago,,,,

1250
ES decent 1074 support

1233
this looks like a lil headfake down,,,seems like UP then down later,, charts still wait for swing shorts additino

1226
ES "should" bounce a little b4 bigger move down,,,first try down usually stalls,,,bounce up may present short setup nicely

1221
stop 5697 on KO to protect profits, last 5714

1212
COMP trgt 2194/2200 last 2171

1154
ko just hit the 5724 micro trgt on that hit of .23,,,, trgts are missing by pennies but close

1149
the KO has 60min 3 white soldiers bull pattern,,,tho its not one of my favorites,,, this often fails after formin a bear rising wedge

1142
pfe is 6 cents from its 1640 trgt, trgts over 1650 after that

1141
5724 next KO micro trgt b4 .37

1139
days of hedging long are coming close to an end, but still in for now long hedges and short swings combo,, the hedges long have been very kind

1136
5717 KO micro trgt b4 .37 was hit on the last touch of .15

1133
still on the "hold all day long" signal,, could change later today but for now i still have it

1129
5717 next micro trgt in KO b4 .37,,,last 5707

1124
5710 was the MM "run stops" trick,,,now watching to see if the hurdle of 5700 is real or just trick

1117
*5687

1116
LEVEL 2 doesnt have the value these days that it had 10 years ago,,,but Goldman has a bid at 5587,,,as long as thats there people will jump over him,,, GS is well respected "big boy" formerly held by MS

1114
if it does go over 5700,,, 5710 stall likely

1113
KO is right at 5700 even now,,,,still see the 5737 trgt

1107
the stop on this additional faz is wide at first,,,around 1295ish,,,to be raised later

1105
i will buy faz limit 1468,,,a starter "add more swing shorts",,, last 1533,,may not get a fill, but order is there on a quick move down

1102
ko bak 5697,,,if doesnt break higher or under .85 will consider selling 25% more,,,,still have 75% shares

1055
sometimes its good to mark a "stock looks good at this price"...like faz 1541,,,then when it moves lower and "back" to the "good price",, then one is not fearful to buy on the way up, since it's met the previous "good" price,,, if that makes any sense

1054
faz will likely move lower,,,then back up to 1541,,,to present opp later

1053
faz 1541 looks close to scalp setup,,,but i'll wait,,,not there yet

1051
interesting,,,,todays KO coil measures to 5735,,,very near the swing target from last week of 5737

1048
sold some KO at 5694 when 5700 stalled,,,still looking to sell another 25% ko at 5737 trgt if able

1043
i might be interested in faz again 1450---1500,,,depends on charts if it gets there, last 1540

1020
selling some tna here at 3665, from varying cost at 3517 3414 3340

1010
the spx has broken OVER its 60min downtrend line resistance,,,v impt

1004
PFE hit the 1624 trgt and hurdled over it to 1627,,, 1624 was an impt swing trgt,,, KO hit the 5704 trgt on the 5700 touch

1002
ES "should" stall at 1073,,,but from all day perspect no short setup,, if 1073 is hurdled it could surge higher

1000
KO and PFE moves are "less dramatic" not being 3x like tna,,,but have more longs in pfe ko,,they r stronger, imho

959
targets tna 3570 (hit and backed off) 3640 n stall, 3700ish,, 3900ish,,,

956
KO hit the 5670 swing trgt,,,next trgt are 5704 and 5737,, still long ko

951
my "hold long all day" setup triggered,,, i'll post when it says "exit long day",,, fwiw

949
watch for a close over/under 1066/71 spx,,,, a close over that would suggest more upside,,, cose < 1055 would be bearish

943
i still have no "add more swing shorts" setup,,

929
1062 ES is the "right shoulder" resistance point,,charts suggest a try for 1067,, and 1062 is impt resist because it is also "prior low" resistance in add to prior high resist

927
ES over 1054 v bullish for upper targets, over 1050 bullish, below that starts suggesting lower targets

WEDN
925 AM
ES has a poss bear HS forming on the 60min chart,, BUT charts do not yet suggest that this partic bear HS will actually trigger, so will watch charts for signs that it will

1155pm
Until this trickiness resolves, and until I get another "add more swing shorts setup", I'll just remain short via TZA from 31.30 and hedged long in individ stocks outperforming the dow, currently PFE KO,,, and looking to maybe re-enter MCD (took profits yest) tho MCD seems like it needs some time before re-entry

Tues 1154 PM
futures up again, but the ques is,,,,where will they be at 9:30 AM? will this be a repeat of Sunday eve's rise and fall?

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

346
limit sell pfe 1604 if filled

312
more shares of pfe are needed vs tna to scalp since pfe not 3x,,,but using pfe instead of tna sso etc,,,better chart on pfe


255
PFE 1586 added

215
KO has broken 5600, last 5603,,,watching to see if it makes a run for 5024 yest high (or higher to engulf candle daily),,, or will sellers show up here?


156
KO now at 5590 could pierce the 5600 in reaction to fomc at 215pm (of course could head down too,,,,dramatic reactions often follow fomc)

124
KO running ahead of spx,,,ko making new daily highs

108
KO up 0.4%,, pfe up 1%, dow up 0.25% atm

1258
HD stop 2771

1250
tna .47 (limit if filled) here with .22 stop could work

1244
todays tna stop 3422, from 3412 cost, on part i didnt take profit on

1242
UNH stopped out breakeven,,, what a dud trade that was

1240
UMH close to being closed breakeven,,,

1239
KO and PFE making new highs of day

1234
es n russel buy prog alerts just triggered, es 1051, the 1057.75 remains es trgt

1225
PFE at HOD green,

1209
UNH stop moved to 3186 at breakeven,,,if it doesn't hold here i'll exit and look for reentry

1207
3473 i sold 25% of shares via limit posted in advance, barely filled but it hit .75,,, holding other 75% shares for 3547 trgt with stalls and stops on the way up

1154
3473 tna filled sale to lock 1.75% profit on that piece

1152
3460/58 tna trgt hit,,,i will sell 25% 3473 if able

1143
es buy prog warn at 1053



1128
tna 3460, 3547 trgts for todays scalp,,, still have the 3517 tna from yest in other acct

1116
in tna 3412

1102
1057.75 ES target on curr pattern

1055
right now its all about 1048 ES...over that bulllish ,,,under bearish

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings / ES Futures Sunday night

419 pm
bought back HD for 28.00

245
i'm closing my BAC from 1330 short now and will look to reenter, 1236 BAC,, locking the 8% profit on this non 3x

242
3min es cup hand inv bull hs

237
VIX 60min is stilll in a downtrend (bullish spx)

231
ES now testing 3min DTL resis...watching to see if holds or breaks higher

229
tna is at small loss for now,,,3480 vs 3514 cost,,,still staying in

152
1057/58 ES is now 3min DTL resis

139
tna avg cost 3517, red rite now

138
in tna 3486, buy #2,, avg 35.14

124
KO moving up here, not down with ES,,,,for now,,,interesting to watch

120
unh has pierced. 32.17 trgt,,,watching to see if it makes uppoer trgts now

118
bias toward break over 1058 in coil

118
es 3minj coil supp 1057 ,,,r 1058, for now

112
another buy progr warn just triggered in KO

108
over 3217 unh ==>3240 trgt

107
UNH has receovered from 3200, not near the 3180 stop, to 3213 last

105
ABOVE the mkt PFE 1605 should cause upside accel, lasst 1601

1250
BAC is a mess but XLF is recovering here,,,,

1249
1061.50 ES target

1249
1059 trgt hit but still see higher,,,,es

1244
1059 trg es

1241
nervous ko or tna would exit here for small profit/breakeven, i will stay

1239
ES buy warning program also

1238
KO buy program warning, moderate

1234
stop 3183 on UNH near breakeven,,,no hold there and i'm out,,, last 3200,, should hold .90ish or trade invalidated

1221
bull inv HS forming in KO 3min

1202
KO can head back to its HOD, or higher

1200
3min bull diverg on KO, and the diverg at its support #,,hence the additional ko

1158
adding KOhere 5574, buy #2 of 4

1153
60 min KO still forming bull W

1150
KO just hit the .70 test downward mentinoed earlier,,,watching reactions here,, long KO is still valid

1145
watching reaction at 1055 es support test

1135
TNA 3547 limit was filled, hit 3542

1134
poss bear desc triangle ES 3min but 60min still says cautious on shorting just yet

1130
SPY rsi over 48 on 60min is bullish spy for me,,,last 53, for swings

1126
ko and pfe longs still valid setups

1123
simple view: 3min KO over 42 should pop it higher, sideways lower till then, last 36, bias to get over 42

1120
look at


rsi on 15min es,,,its bullish

1110
es has bull diverg on its 15min chart...moderate not strong diverg

1100
XLF is "trying" to break higher in its 60min chart,,,,xlf should tell the spx story,, a move higher or lower in xlf should be a good barometer for spx

1052
autotrader would go long limit SPY 106.40 if filled, if it was turned on, last 10.6 so no fill and its turned off, or  or tna 3547

1049
KO 5585 might have been low of day per the 3min 15min charts, which is why i started here,,,tho could go lower .70 .50,, but its early entry,,no "all day hold" setup in ko yet

1044
adding more KO here to allow combo swing/scalp...only had enough shares b4 for swing

1039
i'm dipping my toe in a little ko here 5589,,may see .70 or lower so just starting here

1027
KO 5570--5600 may present opp to add more,,,last 5600 but no "add more long" setup yet

1018
took a LOSS on the HD mess,,, 0.75% loss

1017
2846 stop on HD, close here at .50

1012
HD is actually near support here but i will NOT add more to cost avg down since trade premise is weak,,better to only avg in when trade premise is still strong n valid during an "expected" pullback,, like a KO or PFE buy more pullbakc

1010
HD stop 2847 for a small loss if stopped,,under that not interested for now

1007
no stall at 1623ish,,,around here 1620,,,would be v bullish pfe

1006
PFE continues up toward 1650+ trgt with interim stall trgt 1623, last 1619

959
looking for spots to add more KO PFE ,,,can't get back into KO,,running with 50% size on ko

958
HD is in a mild profit zone here but not happy with its action,,,will likely sell this with small profit soon and re-invest elsewhere,

942
auto program trader 82% has not entered anyt "all day hold daytrades" but is biased to up, for now, but no entries

838
I was never filled on the TZA afterhours order on Friday, it never went that low. That order was good only for Friday, I'm no longer interested in buying tza now before 10AM, and probably not at all today. The Friday order would have been a longer term hold OR a sell pre-market today on Monday,,, the trade premise on tza is now changed. if i were filled on it, i'd have sold it 36.10 here this morn for profit and look to re-enter later

Monday
8:23 AM
After making a high of 1073 overnight, the ES has now dropped to 1062. A hold of 1061 would suggest a move back up to 1067, 1074 , 1080 targets, while a break of 1062 would suggest move to lower targets. ES is still very bullish over 1061 and bullish over 1054.

10:04 PM

If the ES can hold up over 1070 (up 5-7 points from Friday) then the longs in PFE  UHN  HD    MCD   KO   TBT  should do well and hit their first primary swing targets (with the secondary higher targets also likely).  Last ES 1072.

Sunday 10:02 PM

As expected, ES has hit the 1067 target mentioned Friday and is one point from the 1074 targets mentioned on Friday. The 1080 Friday target remains viable.

From Friday:

if ES gets a 10min close over 1055 expect 1061,,, 60min close over 1062 could propel es to 1067, 74 1080,, much R at 1062 ...1062 not likely to break higher on first time,,,1062 may be short area, depends on chart when it gets there

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

419
SPY daily money flow is warning of more downside, severely (after rally).
OBV even on strong stocks like MCD is warning of downside in these stronger names
Williams %R for spy is at a resist level but the R is at 57 so could go either way
SPY 60min boll bands are bullishly stretching


418
ADX says SPY daily still in downtrend and this is just a rally to get the di+ and di- closer


60min adx spy says nothing,, 15min suggests the rally still has more up


417
Monday's


close is impt: a SPY close over

107.00 would be MACD PpP bull

confirmation, suggesting the rally will

go higher if we get the close....
 
 
349
psychology of that pattern: initially a thrust higher was tried but failed (inverted hammer) BUT prices held firm at the low,,,,then a thrust lower back to the prior low was attempted, the low held again,,,and pivoted up to form the hammer.

348
the 2 day spy chart shows an inverted hammer followed by a hammer (last 2 candels) after red candles,,,this is often a bounce alert combo

330
one reason i added long hedge in HD is because of its reslience yesterday during the down spx day,, HD held firm yest (among other TA)

256
KO swing should outperform MCD swing,,,more upside room in KO likely

238
targets are the same as 8AM targets

238
1066 is next target on hard break of 1061

236
HD 3min asc bull triangle for 2900ish trgt

223
to be honest i was expecting a more bearish initial reaction to the 1061 es test,,,its an impt #,,,, could go down but the reaction thus far bullish... sellers weren't really "waiting there"

204
mcd new highs again, 7407,, last 7403,,,conserv would take profits,,,taking 25% off here and holding last 25%

137
marginal new yearly hi in mcd just now

123
taking 4.2% profit on half of tbt from 3 days ago

119
i still dont have an "add more swing shorts" setup

111
the es continues to hold this 1055 for now,,,bullish

104
paid lil more,,,in HD 2863

101
limit buy 2857 HD,,, starter position 25% size

1259
looking for an entry in HD long,,, i was short that awhile ago,,,

1248
just got stopped

1246
5577 ko stop on 25% of shares to protect profit,,,sotp on other 25% lower,,,can always buy back if stopped

1237
limit short es 1061 could work but i'm not taking it if it presents,,,too much work,,i dont want to salcp inside the bull flag

1221
on daily, KO had a bull flag, broke higher bull flag,,, backtested down to 55, and is now on its way to higher daily highs over 5750 (with stalls of course)

1210
mcd now at 7376, over the 7372 i sold some at,,but stilll have half left

1206
KO is approaching resist at 5590/5600,,,will watch reaction there b4 taking profits partially,, PFE has broken yesterdays high :)

1203 pm
7372 mcd taking profit

1157
i will take another 25% of mcd off soon to lock profits,,,i have the "prepare to exit" setup,,,should bounce around a lil to find a nice spot,, will keep half of mcd

1151
pfe made new hod but below yest 1609 hod,,,last 1604

1149
water torture drip vs breaking the dam

1148
or low vol lunchtime could cause small lil candles and form a wedge to break it,,, 1061 is still R and is respected until broken,,just presenting scenarios

1147
this consolodation here at es 1055/59 instead of at 1057/61 could be v dangerous for shorts,, a high vol move could slice right through the 1061 impt resist instead of stalling there, due to this pattern

1134
changed my mind,,,taking profits on 25% of shares up here at resist

1131
everythings at resist now...pfe,,,mcd,,,ko,,unh....but holding longer,,,if the R breaks then it should pop higher nicely,,,


1125
1061 es to 1054 down and 1054 hold bounce would be extremely bullish,,,watching to see how this unfolds,,tho the R "should be" strong at 1061

1118
looking for UNH test 3240 then break that higher, from 3180

1116
mcd is now just 14 cents from a test of its all time high,,,i still expect it to break higher over it

1114
i'm marking prices now on the daytrades and swings,,,and will take partial profits later at these prices if we dont move higher,,, if prices go down on ko mcd pfe,,,they should bounce back to around here, but waiting to see if can get the higher targets

1104
if KO gets > 5572 it should pop nice

11:02 AM
if ES gets a 10min close over 1055 expect 1061,,, 60min close over 1062 could propel es to 1067, 74 1080,, much R at 1062 ...1062 not likely to break higher on first time,,,1062 may be short area, depends on chart when it gets there

1047
my ES 60min rsi and macd line (not hist) have bull diverg,, the macd hist is forming a bullish PpP unconfirmed so far, still in dev

1044
shorts will get a third try to add more shorts swing,,,just need to be patient for right setup,, the other 2 signals came at 1197 and 1112

1041
spy is on a buy for "hold all day" type trades

1038
hmm that could have been a wave 5, dbl bot instead of lower low,,,watching

1035
mcd may want to backtest 7330/7340 but still in scalp and swings

1033
this is a decent spot to take 35 cent scalp profit on part of mcd shares

1029
the moves are fast and extreme,,,but the support and resist levels are being respected

1019
LOL the mcd daytrade is back at breakeven after all that,, i'll stay in tho instead of exiting here,,,still like 10 n 15min charts

1018
watching 1049 ES reaction if it hits there, last 1045


1001
in KO more 5530

955
mcd 7330 looks good here for day

938
the "early entry" in KO long 2 days ago swing has finally triggered,,,KO now moving higher and should hit its targets,, we knew KO would start sluggishly in the early entry

933
taking some UNH here 3187

929
for those who like candles,,, a neat technique is to have a daily chart, and then set a second chart next to it to TWO days (instead of daily).... the 2 day chart will show how the candles "combine" from the previous 2 days and show the 2 days as a single candle

904
interestingly,,,MCD has a red candle yesterday but its actually a continuation pattern up in mcd, because it did not pierce the prev days body

848 AM
1031/37...to 1028/1033 spx support trendlines,,, depending on (1) time of day and (2) whether wicks are included

Fri 838 AM
ES hit 1055 and stalled....1055 is an exact touch of one of the 60min DTL (steeper one),,,1061 and 1066 would be next target if ES  hurdles 1055,,, a hold under 1055 suggests turn down 1041, 1037 and if 1037 breaks then a test of the DTL support line.

Thurs 6:53
I've added 25% position long UNH 31.85.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

341
taking a piece of pfe off here for scalp,,,holding rest of scalp and swing for higher targets

334
pfe trgt 1603 if abvle

322
es just hit the 3:10 pm trgt of 1048.50 :)

314
pfe 10min sotch suggests higher

302
in pfe 1585, combo day n swing additino

243
watching for pfe bull failure swing rsi 3min,,,should get it

238
some stronger stocks today have large green candles early in day,,and small red dribble ones,,it could reverse

220
i want to aded more swing shorts but dont have an add more shorts setup...just a "hold older shorts" setup

215
reversal warning just thrown on software es 104650

152
software triggered a mild buy program warning signal for pfe,,,signal only no program yet triggered

150
ES has a 15min bull harami but not confirmed,,unknown if strong enough to break the 60min downtrend

140
spy 15min bull flag still valid,,,


137
MCD now just 20 cents from prior high of day,,, 7374 vs 7394

135
1056 es trgt still valid

118 PM
pfe has poss bear desc tri in 3min,,may force me to exit and reenter,,watching it here,,, to see if it breaks up instead of down,, for now i remain long pfe mcd,,,mcd doing well

102pm
ES 1056 trgt on a bounce, at declining resist

1244
KO acting better now,,,looks good ,,,trade long still valid in swing,,,ko has a swing long setup,,,for starter size position not full

1225
MCD quick charts in various timeframes. I remain long. Double click the chart to see full size larger...note how the rsi 15min trendline is holding support, tho getting tired,,,but big bounces can happen before exhaustion

1203
buy progr warning in mcd 7360

1156
MCD is strong but i dont like spx weakness here,,,i'm taking half of mcd off to lock profits,,,7354 sold half

1146
umm....poss broadening formation forming in ES<,,, see it?,,, if so, even more volatility and whipsaw

1135
if mcd gets over 7370 and sustains,,,it should squeeze the mcd shorts

1135
MarketMakers love those marginal violations of support, esp when it is newly est support, to run stops

1133
well mcd viloated that 7333 support on a hit to 7331, but has since recovered to 7350 so for now i'll consider the support has held

1105
bought back mcd at .45 that was sold at .62,,,,as it hits the coil support line,, original cost in mcd 7259

1100
interesting,,,pfe has a 60min bullflag which itself is inside a daily bull flag

1053
mcd time analysis suggests poss break over 7370 by 11:17 AM if the newly est .34 support holds

1049
ADX says pfe is trendless atm,,,and KO trendless,,confirming / agreeing with the coil patterns in each

1048
MCD adx says mcd is stilll in 60min uptrend

1046
wow BAC is moving higher,,,good,,,i wanna short more of it,,no entry yet,,, at the 1287 now

1044
mcd will either break its coil beofre 17 minutes or convert it to an asc triangle

1039
one could take MCD partial profits here then buy bak lower,,, 7361,, but could easily break the HOD

1038
mcd is in a bull coil that measures to, unsurprisingly, 7400,,prior high

1035
see if pfe can hold its support at 1596,,,steep support line

1030
es volume analysis: the ES 3min big green candle at 8:30 AM is higher than any volume bar thus far today

1023
lets see if mcd can hold 7333 newly est support or not

1021
wow look at those ES contracted 60min BB,,, fireworks could happen today

1018
the MCD 60min chart is getting tired, but it suggests more up to come first,,, the question is will the rsi macd carve out a "confirms lower high" or a "bearish diverg with a higher high"... daily still bullish

1015
yea..horizontal support 1068 INTERSECTS with downtrendline there (exteniding DTL out in time a lil)

1014
1067 ES should give decent resistance if its hit

1005
KO is very close to a swing long setup (i already early yesterday starter position)

1002
algo for mcd is hold long for day so far,,,hold pfe day and overnite so far

1001
for holds over 1 hour,,,my autotrader algo 82% on ES says,,,,do nothing yet LOL,, for longer holds intraday not scalps

959
1297 or 1303ish BAC may give a nice "add more shorts" entry,,,will see what charts look like if it can push up there

948
MCD often has most of its action packed into the open and close 60-90 min

945
bull 3min on hammer ES, and confirmed with with a close over the hammer hi, for intraday trades

940
PFE at its HOD here despite spx pullback,,, MCD down with SPX but still in profit zone

938
KO continues to bounce around, but still within its bull coil,,, nothing dramatic expected until the coil breaks

929
MCD is perched at 7370 premarket,,,,it may break the 7394 today for a new all time hi (curr 7394)

916
es backtesting to 1057 breakout point,,,if 1057 doesnt hold down or whipsaw

910
KO has a newly established uptrendline on 15min chart yesterday after it made the low of day. I'll remain long KO at least as long as the trendline is unbroken. a break lower of the TL would be ok since its steep

902
mcd has hit yesterdays target of 7360,,,but i'm holding it longer for higher targets

850
ES hit its 1061 target from 8AM with a touch of 1061.75, now watching for higher targets if support holds

846
the 3 min on ES is now forming a mini bull pennant,,, needs to hold 1059

8:10 AM Thurs
Bulls will want to keep ES over 1044, but preferably over 1047 or 1052, to give a bounce. A violation under 1044 suggests 1037 and lower. On a break over 1060, bounce targets 1061, 1068, 1076, 1083 (lower targets need to break higher in order to get to next higher target).

The long positions below are shorter term swing, hedges against my longer term market shorts via TZA  FAZ   BAC short.  I'm bearish now, hence the shorts, but trading these stocks long for the expected bounce.


MCD chart. Double click to see larger view full size.

KO Double click to see larger view full size. (in KO 55.35 long)

Earlier I had traded the KO breakout from 53 and closed it at 57. I've re-entered early here, into the bull flag, partially based on the MACD bull divergence (purple line) that has set up within the bull flag. A bull diverg inside a bullish pattern (flag) prompted me to take an initial position.  KO may want to go lower, but I like this new entry for now at 55.35 down  from 57, to expect 57 test and then higher to 59.45 and then 61.20. A stall at 59.45 would be expected, since that is the KO 365 day high. Because the entry was early, I posted that I expect this one to be sluggish at first, until the flag breaks higher. The daily falling blue ADX also suggests some range sideways for a bit (non trending).

PFE Double click to see larger view full size. (in KO 55.35 long)

PFE is another bull flag, and is already up at 1.3% profit from today's entry at 15.78. Similar to KO except I mentinoed this morning that PFE will likely move faster than KO. With that expectation, I entered a larger position in PFE today (more shares) and already took some off to lock the 1.3% profit on those shares. Target is over 16.50 for PFE,,, targets 16.55,,, 17.39, 17.64

746pm
3693--3708 looks like possible good spot to add more tza,,,will see what chart looks like if it gets down there, last 3824


6:55pm WEDN
july 6 and 8/24 lows on IWM are 5866 and 5880, we can see support was hit and bounced a lil to 60.50,,,yet tza's highs were 45.65 and 41.67,,, the 41.67 fell far short of the previous 45.65, such is the nature of leveraged instruments

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

0400pm
PFE and MCD both have bull engulfing candles,,,requiring confirmation tomorrow or next day with higher closes,,,  add spot


to add more swing shorts may

present tomorrow
 
 
351
besides tech charts, another reason i like PFE long swing,,,is the huge volume on the gap up in PFE on Aug 3,,,it should make new highs over 16.60

343
if MCD can hit .63ish today then i'll take some off to lock profits,,,holding rest swing

0342
ko hit .61 near the .70 trgt,,still see sideways in KO for a few hours

0324
ES over 1048 still bullish intraday,,,below it suggests lower

320
qqqqq needs close today > 4401 to get engulfing,, failure of engulfing will still give a piercing bullish

0318
painting a bull engulfing 2 day candle pattern,,,stronger than the bull harami, but it would need confirm with a subsequent daily close over 4413 after todays candle (day 3,4 or 5)

309
for coming days,,,,dueling 60min and daily often results in sideways,,,,bear daily n neutral-bullish 15/60min

035
KO target is only 5570 next then up down awhile,,,swing trgt 5712 with stops along the way

301
we are at some type of algo resistance here,,,alarm just sounded,,,,but still looks bullish intraday,, 1054 ES

259
7363 MCD is next trgt, last 7330

249
MCD and PFE both have v bullish daily candles

244
will look to add shorts when this rally ends in coming days hours

243
my swing targt es on continued strength is 1083,,thats target tho charts don't yet have the setup to achieve it,,,no aggressive entries lol

242
ES trgt 1055, then 1061 if 1055 breaks,,,1061 is DTL resist touch

240
we should hit 1055 ES prior intraday hi

232
1598 stopped out,,,took profits on that piece of pfe

221
if MCD 15min rsi gets over 60,,,,new highs for it,,,else sideways here

215
1051 was the resis trgt from 9am and it hit so should pull bak ,,,but tricky charts

214
1050 trgt hit,,,1055 next

211
wow pfe doing well here,,,mcd is ok,,,KO sluggish as its been all day

209
1598 stop

205
1050 then 1055 es trgt

202
1614 and 1626 are the "real" targtes pfe,,,just dont know where it will stall and pullbak,,,hence the partial stops to lock profit

159
stop 1592 for 25% shares

158
good,,, GSCO raised to 1607 from 1601 :)

154
stop mkt 1589 on 25% pfe shares,,, i will NOT get caught in a crazy drop like noontime by missing limit to sell by one cent

147
hmm might need to change to 1601 if GSCO doesnt remove his ask,,,he's big hehe,,just noticed the goldman sell there

146
trying still to sell half of pfe 1603...or 1598 1593 if have to

140
1049.60 is now ES declining R (lower from 1051 earlier)

122
meanwhile...the 3min PFE macd has a higher low confirmed after a buyll diverg so still looking for upper day trgts

117
well KO took a nasty lil dive but has recovered to breakeven here,,,the KO sluggishness expected,,but when it pops up it does so nicely

1253
pfe missed the fill to sell by one cent,,then dropped,,, raising sale price to .98 now from .95, may do manually if it gets up there

1229
12 min trgt to hit the pfe .95 trgt in 12min

1227
well spy is green,,,,es red

1226
VIX daily red,,,and spx daily red,,,,

1223
if algo program trader goes short,,it wont do so before 1247

1221
but 60 min momentum down slowed,,,hence this action as 15 and 60 battle

1217
ah now the 15min SPX is weakening,,,could fall,,,sideways likely a bit

1211
.91 to .87 pullback mearsure to .95 on .91 pfe break,,,rite at trgt

1206
secondary ES trgt is 1060 if bullish intraday continues

1204
es at 1048,,,2 pts from 1050/51 trgt

1200
and bull engulf on MCD

1159
PFE forming daily bull piercing candles if it can close around here

1158
KO is at a 10 cent loss atm ,,,still valid tho, holding

1156
PFE just made new HOD :) mcd near its hod

1154
asc triangl trgt 1=1595,,, t2=1606,, close to the 9AM pfe trgts

1152
changing the .95 pfe limit order to stop mkt order .95,, so i'll prob get a fill at either .95 or .94 not .95 guaranteed

1148
pfe 3min asc triangle also measures to the .95 trgt

1147
PFE trying for triple top mini on 10 min,,,,expecting it to break higher not lower to hit the .95 trgt

1145
buy program warning,,,es, mild, at es 1046

1127
hmm might need to take some pfe off a lil b4 the .95 targt for half,,,if ES gets to 1051 b4 pfe

1120
i would expect stall at ES 1051 trgt if its hit,, the rsi hit its target so the 1051 is likely

1118
MCD and PFE moving ok,,, the KO continues sluggish but thats expected in the coil as mentinoed

1104
1051 ES trgt,,,the trendline touch

1101
the ES hit the rsi 42 target as expected, from 35,,, now trying for 2nd trgt 48,,,it could pop nice if achieved

1100
1588/1590 poss pfe stall,,,theres a trendline R there 10min chart

1057
limit sell half pfe scalp 1594 if filled

1051
PFE trgt daily 1613 if it can get over 1595, so 1595 then 1613 trgt

1048
PFE buy prog warning here at 1580

1045
simple view: if ES rsi on 15min gets over 42 then small up, and over 48 should give nice bounce,, inability to do so means more sideway and down,,,bias right now is for it to move up some to 42


1036
BAC short continues lower, BAC last 12.46 towar the 1200 trgt

1028
\pfe could go for 3rd drive to high at 1395,,,to break higher,,,will watch,,, last 1578

1026
scalping and swing both on pfe,,, .78 entry here looks good for scalp

1017
MCD doesnt normally have more than $1.50 diff between hi and low of day even on good day,,,poss to trade within it while still staying swing long

1013
i will not likely sell MCD when it gets to 74.00,,, 7400 is a 20 year high, all time high in mcd,,,it should go higher

1009
KO is likely to move slower,,,its an early entry inside a coil, bull falling wedge,,,so slower till it pops out of it

1008
MCD makes a new high, $1 higher than the Low of day

1003
loose


stops and limit orders to buy n sell

needed in the chop
 
959
KO 55.32,,,starting pos 25% size

952
MCD continues up, resisting the move down in spx dow here,, small bounces up on the dow should be exaggerated in mcd as it goes to try to make a higher yearly high

946
MCD is off to the races thus far this morn, nice 4 green bars on the 3min

943
starting in PFE 1581, w 25% position size

WEDNESDAY
939
continuing along "hedge swing shorts via swing longs" i will be looking at entries in KO CVX PFE ,,,in additino to MCD TBT longs

Tues 10:56 PM
bullish divergences in the ES may present an opp on the charts to add to swing short positions Wedn,,, no "add more" setup presented itself today tues today on my charts


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday ramblings (and Mon nite futures)

0342
mcd down now at 7290 from 7300

0328
ES broke out of its wedge,,,a break over 1059 would give 1065 trgt

0326
*7300 not 7400 lol

0325
there goes mcd, broken the 74,,,watching to see if it can hold the break higher

0319
i still dont have an "add swing short" setup,,only "hold older swing shorts"

0308
hmm chart suggests that MCD may break 7300 on this try,,7294 last

0258
ES buy program warning at 1053

0257
some 3 min hammers in es...watching if they give any upsidea

0249
the 14:00 and 14:30 made the poss dbl bot,, 1049 and 1050

0244pm
3min es possible dbl bottom

219
well this is particularly tricky to trade in today,,,

140
limit sell half NKE at 70.60 last 7030

128
ES DTL 3min resist 1055.75,,,watching reactino

127
buy progr nke warning,another mild one

126
prog trade algo still on "hold long ES for now for day"

115pm
mcd buy program warning,,both mild warnings

112pm
buy progr warning nke

1243
fwiw,,,my program trader algo would have went long "all day " long es at 1053, signal still valid tho i'm not in

1222
i want tza but havent added yet...still have the 3130 tza but no "new entry" for me yet

1215
ES at 3min support now 1056,,,watching to see if holds,,,its only 3min support so weaker

1214
taking more nke here .37 close enough

1211
grr missed it, no fill, now at .46

1208
i'll buy bak nke i sold at .65 for .30 here if able, last .33

1156
ES has support at 1054 3min trendline

1145
selling half of NKE here to reduce risk...the avg down accomplished its purposed *whew*,,,, 2% loss recovered :) to breakeven

1143
limit sell half of nke at 7089

1142
preparing to exit NKE if needed near breakeven on any stall...letting it ride now near breakeven

1133
NKE is at gap resist here at .49,, true gap is .49 from prior low, tho gap from yest close is higher at 70.93

1136
ES still in the wedge,,,at wedfge R now,,,still trying to break higher but thus far contained

1122
simple view for nke: the 10 min rsi needs to hurdle 48 for a nice pop up,,,else lower,,, expecting it to go over 48, last 37

1118
1052 is 3min trendline supp

1117
watching if es 1050 holds,,,wedge support

1106
ES trying to break from bull fall wedge 15min,,,it could try to rally

1103
45 cents profit take on mcd scalp could work here

1101
NKE is making new daily highs,,,trying to fill gap :)

1056
MCD continues valid long, moving up,,,tho at some R now

1039
nke 7084ish trgt on the bull inv HS 3min if it triggers,, approx eyeball target inexact

1031
doubled NKE position, cost now 70.80,,,red 1.24% thus far

1030
6988 added nke,,close enough to .85

1026
adding MCD here 7250

1025
not filled on the NKE,,,missed buy by 6 cents,, .85

1018
nke long add more limit 6985 if able. last 6996

952
later today i may even add some MCD long hedges,,,still looks fine here, no serious tech damage,while short via tza

934
NKE swing down 2%, MCD at breakeven, tbt down 1.5%, tza up 29%

924
ES futures down this morning,,, charts suggest possible bounce before more downside, bull diverg, will watch the first 15min and first hour of trading...if ES does bounce it will prob stall at 1067--70 if it gets there and then decide up or down


716PM
Been adding some TBT here 3140--3160

TBT charts look ok for "early entry"...also poss bull morn star tomorrow in it


527
I'm revising some Point And Figure charts to complement the bar and candle charts,,,,see if the PF give any insight,,,, PF an be useful in filtering out the noise.....


446pm
mcd is in a bear rising wedge now...but even tho pattern is bearish it says "more up still",, also i think it may convert to a bullish up channel, as these often do

Monday 4:$1pm
1million shares of qqqq just printed AH at 44.91 vs 44.48 close


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings / ES Futures Monday pre-market

0410
VIX is now at 15min and 60min resist...so it should be fun

0405
not so sure we go down here before up first,,,i'm waiting to add shorts and am still hedged long in mcd and nke

0336
adding NKE here 7120, base now 71.51

0313
then see if es gets over 1073,,,theres resist there on 3min chart

0235
watch the stoch on SPY 15min,, often a decent move up comes when it first enters > 80

0233
15min stoch on ES at 81 now...thinking it can make 90 with another pop up,,, watching to see if 80 holds down or pops higher

0230
7 touches on the NKE trendline up...continues to hold thus far

0221
nke bak at 10min trendline support,,,watching to see if it holds

0213
watch for 3 green bars on 10min or 5min...3 white soldiers probable setup comoing

209
and...the expected bear trap has sprun as sps pop up here :)

202PM
the NKE 10min uptrendline v accurate... 5 touches so far to it with ahold on each and higher low each time,,, i'll stay long NKE as long as that holds up

0153
NKE at resist test now too...7192 should pop it higher else down again,,,bias up

0150
simple view ES: 15min rsi breaks 48 bullish, breaks 38 bearish,, bull bias for now

0130
MCD testing the HOD and yearly high now...i expect it to break higher,, 7420/30 trgt next

0121
nke just broke out of 10min coil...watching

0120
i'm getting buy prog warningf for mcd...watch next 15min

1252
but the macd bull diverg is valid :)

1252
*CORRECTION: macd line not ready to cross 0,,,wrong chart oops

1251
also 60min macd line ready to cross over 0 from spy (bullish)

1251
the SPY has a bullish 60min diverg on it, esp the macd lines

1242
MCD already


broken out of 15min bull pennant,,,this lil


move down is backtest, should


pivot up next
 
 
1239
but tna 3549 3585 3598 3670 with main 3599 3670 targets on quik glance

1229
mcd should see 7430 b4 7340

1226
NKE simple view: rsi needs over 60 then it should pop up nicely, on 15min chart rsi

1215
if triggered it will break the HOD after test HOD, pullback then higher

1214
MCD buy program warning,med strength at mcd 7378

1213
nke may stall at 7190, would be ok, last 7180.,,,higher trgts still valid

1207
in tna 3493 at 50% size

1203
my autotrader prog algo is close to entering TNA here3483 but no confirmation yet,,, algo has 82% wins

1202
MCD has bull pennant in 10min n 15min charts

1146
MCD just hit the 7378 trgt from 1134 AM

1145
15min ES has bull harami

1137
ES has marginally broke over its 3min DTl...wtaching to see if it holds over 1069 or not

1134
MCD broke over 7362 should go for 7378 then back for HOD test and break higher

1130
MCD has hit its targets from last nights charts,,,should go for higher trgts next

1130
MCD n NKE remain on "hold swing long" setups

1129
then i'll look to short that bounce today tomorrow whenever

1128
this has the look of short cover trap with a low today higher than fri low,, could go lower but charts suggest a higher low

1119
the NKE support lines in 60min have held perfectly thus far,, NKW v bullish over 7126 for 7243 ,,, under 7126 bearish / neutral and poss pullback to lower support levels

1110
in UPRO at 127.11 at es 1069
 
 
1058
right now for me this is a backetest in NKE with the price over UTL still, so added here

1056
adding pos #2 NKE 7143, avg now 7167

1049
dont think spx cracks just yet,,poss bear trap intraday here,,,i'm bearish midterm but this has char of poss bear trap

1038
MCD is now consolodating bullishly near its high of day / new yearly hi

1035
if nke can make 7271 first target, and then pierce higher,,,it should breakout higher nicely (3 drives to a high, not shorting the 3rd test of high strat),,,last 7202

1032
LONG here NKE 7187 for scalp,, starter position 25% size

1024
EXITING the AKS now for small 1% profit,,,can always reenter,,,

1020
charts suggest 80% prob that BAC has more up b4 down

1020
1308 impt pivot,,watching


to see if it holds down,

cuz break over it should

give .17
 
1019
poss BAC short at 1323 if it hits there,,, its at 1308 resist now,,also has R at 1317

1014
sso 3516 long looks almost good, but waiting for long scalp (at es 1075)

1007
for me, es 1084 daily trgt still valid despite this lil pullbakc

1005
my swing ultimate trgt is 75.48 in MCD,,unsure if it will get up there or not,, still bearish mid-term on spx dow russel, last 7388 mcd (unless mcd does a type of mini dbl top here today

956
since a new yearly hi, harder to calc targets, but 7447 is next trgt for now, other trgts to follow

955
MCD has just made a new 365 day high :)

952
ES 1084 if hit should stall...double R there with trendline R and horizon resist,,,will watch to see
if it holds down there or breaks higher after the pullback

946
if MCD breaks the 7381 trgt (expect it to) it should pop nicely out of its coil, last 7372

943
overshotr the .63 trgt by 5 cents,,, real first trgt today is 7381

940
if ES 1078 break suggests 1084 trgt

937
hedge longs on MCD and AKS green,,looking to reenter more BAC short, tza in time

900am
ES rose up to 1077 and hit its declining R trendline and has backed off now at 1074. That being said, charts suggest that the 60min downtrend can be broken if ES can hold 1069 and pivot up. A hold of 1073 would be a stronger indiciation.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Why I remain long in MCD

I've been in and out of MCD,,, here's why I remain long for now.  MCD has been stronger than the DOW SPX or QQQQ.

MCD is near an upper swing target soon. I'm bearish for SPX (though a bounce seems to be coming first), and am hedging my SPX shorts with MCD long while the SPX and DOW bounce here.

Double click the chart to see it full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

MCD McDonalds vs the DOW...

Note how much stronger MCD is in the chart below.

Double click the chart to see it full size

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

SEE DAILY RAMBLINGS POST BELOW THIS ONE. 

It is updated throughout the day

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

0405
BAC closed at 12.88,,,, yest i suggested at 12.88 close today in BAC

0359
settled for 1345 and 7314,,both were profitable

0355
7330 mcd partial sell if able

0354
selling some AKS 1348..or lower if not filled, for min 1.05% profit,,,,and will keep the other 25% swing

0335
i'm holding MCD swing stop around 7150,,,there are multiple support levels under it so any pullback should at least bounce to allow exit if needed

0326
its in a coil and wedge/up channl type thing

0323
will do manually,,,its v close to my stop at .90

0245
moving stop on half of mcd to 7290,,,will buy bak if stopped out,,,5 cents over breakeven

0235
now for the real target #1 1360/64 aks i'll hold, and then for HOD

0234
figures,,,it hit the trgt after i sold it,,,still have half,,,had just too many shares which forced a sell lower to reduce risk on aks

0231
stallling so sold at .32,,,still have half

0225
and raising to .37 not .35

0224
grr missed my limit sell by one cent argh for the AKS,, i'm still keeping it,,,it should hit .37

0217
i have a BAC sell prog warn as the spx moves up so i sold the BAC,,,too risky,,,can always buy back,,, still hedged long via MCD and AKS (both greeen now)a

0216
i am exiting the BAC long here for now,,,this is not right,,,small profit breakeven on the BAC scalp long

0212
when the vix gets over 28 then i'll start selling (writin) options not buying them

0156
this 1067.50 test is v impt intraday

0153
AKS is close to filling sell order for half of shares...first half is small profit because i bought in 4 batches ...so many shares

0152
ES intraday---3 drives to a high here,,bullish for mini break

0136
BUY program warn for AKS,,,lets see if it does anything at 1319

0129
the "hold long scalp" signal remains in place, breakout setup here now

0126
other aks targets 1363

0125
i will sell half of aks at 1335 if able,,last 1322,,if it hits 1335 it should pull bak and give opp to buy them back

0108
VIX is forming poss broadening formation, and a wedge in ES,,,that combo can create some fun volatility fireworks in coming hours days

0107
if ES gets an RSI close over 51 in 15min chart then we have a bullish rsi failure swing, last rsi 47 (rsi14)

0103
106750 should give 1071

0102
3min downtrend is broken higher,,now needs to get over the 60min

1257
ES is testing the 3min DTL now,,,still see break higher

1248
1303/06ish stop

1247
adding ak2 here


1317 with tite stop 1306,, aks basis now 1328
 
 
1208
ES 60min is now in a bull falling wedge

1203
selling the rest of BAC puts for 40% profit,,,they should go higher but i hate time decay,, also i think BAC will bounce here and puts decline

1159
ES should bounce here at 1062 else its really weak

1131
stop 1306 on aks for now,,,if it hits there i'm out with a loss and maybe reenter

1110
we might have just seen a headfake break lower in the coil...watching it here

1058
ES 3min is now coiling sym triangl

1053
limit sell some BAC 1297 if able scalp from 1283

1051
BAC buy progr short cover warning at 1286

1044
spx should break


higher over 1070 within 12 minutes
 
1041
many charts are painting bullish 60min diverg so bounce would be normal

1035
actually R is now at 1070

1034
ES is in downtrend while under 1072 in 60min but charts suggest the 1072 should break higher either on a spike or in an effort to expand the channel...channel is steep and unsustainable right now unless charts change

1033
i still have the 1074 ES trgt for now valid

1026
BAC is a slow mover but predictable,,,more shares needed to to smaller moves vs the faz fas etc

1024
i'm going LONG



for a scalp in BAC here for bounce


up,,,still swing short, in at 12.83, stop


under Low Of Day .78
 
1018
ADDING buy #2 in AKS here at 1332,, avg cost now 1354,,,aks trade still valid long

1011
COVERING the BAC here now,,,only 25% left, at 1280,,,will look to reload more shorts later, covered 1280 from 1333 short for 4% profit,

sold BAC puts .60 from .45 for 33% profit,,,holding the last 25% of the options

1003
grr this AKD long is a mess, newly entered yest,,,looking to see whether to hold or exit, down on that one,,  red -2.5% atm,, wait till my friend heres about this LOL,,but charts say hold AKS for now

1002
MCD: in coil,,break of 7317 should give 7324,,then 7324 break for 7381, then higher up the daily uptrend/wedge

949
took MCD 7277 long here,,,buy #1 of poss 4 buys

945
limit MCD long hedge 7277 if filled, at starter positino

942
MCD looks good at 7292 long BUT i will wait to enter long

939
FAZ hit the 1609 trgt so took some off there, for 21% profit,,,finally hit the 1609,,took a week lol

937
BAC just hit the 1288 target :) last 1286

934
sold some BAC puts from swing here at the 1292/93 touch for 22% profit on that piece,,,will look to reload more later,,,still have half of the puts

928
ES first trgt 1076 trgt, last 1070

924
i am short but will hedge using MCD CAT PFE T VZ for long daytrades and poss swings when the charts suggest entries,, if the DOW moves higher I believe those will be the stocks leading it up

8:41
ES "looks bad" now being down 5 pts but charts are warning it could bounce,,,this would be an opp to add shorts swings if it does,, if not then we just run with the half size positions in swing short for now

Friday 8:35 AM
BAC continues lower toward its downward targets for the swing. It hit 12.92 pre-market this morning, which is significant because the 13.02 support level has broken. I still have the 12.88 target level being hit today as possible. Yesterday I mentioned it might hit the 12.88 due to options expiration activity.

902 PM
Friday's Support and Resistance

To me, a trend is a trend until broken. The 60 SPX is in a downtrend as follows:
trendline 1054-52 support declining thru the day
trendline 1094--1089 resistance declining thru the day

On a break over/under of those trendlines, we have:

1090 spx is neither trendline R nor horizon R, but I have multiple indicators converge on that point for me as a Resist point

horiz support    1065, 1058
horizon resist   1080,87,89

On a break over 1090 then 1099 and 1107 targets though I don't expect 1107.

spx retraced back up to the 50% fib of the move down from tuesday, other fibs 1106 (62%) and 1116 (78%). Again I don't expect the upper fibs unless the trendline R breaks higher


629 PM

a friend of mine suggested a look at AKS. I like it for a small long position, starting with a 25% size position. I'm in long at 13.73 for swing

THurs 6:18 PM
My targets on the downside for BAC (last 13.02) short are 10.50 and 9.70, with 6.15 and 3.00 possible later.


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0402
if tza goes crazy AH i'll sell at 3770 a piece of it and try to buy bak,,,prob will not get a fill,, 3770 was my daily (unmet) target,, made 3756 hi

0400pm
tza hit 3727 or one penny over the .26 trgt b4 close

0350
there,,finally filled,,, locked in 1.17% on that piece

0349
missed by .20 order by 2 cents....hit .18 now .11,,,,i'm sticking with .20 it should go to .26

0343
if it were earlier in day my autotrader would do tza and faz here,,,but too close to end of day so it wont,,but that setup is there,, only unsatisfied conditino is "time less than 3:40 PM"

0337
li9mit sell part of tza scalp at 3720 if able, from 3677 cost

0334
that inv bull HS i mentinoed b4 measured to 1078 trgt,,,and ES hit it,,,watching to see if if goes over it or pulls bak

0330
bulls need to repair the 15min shoot star fast else bad for bulls

0328
selling half of tza here at cost just to reduce risk,,, avg in on the extra shares served its purpose

0319
faz swing shares took all off except last 1/4 of shares,,,, 17% profitr,,,look to reload later

0308
i'm going to be forced to take some profits even on the swing shorts today,,but will still hold some,,,there are some divergences that say "bounce",,, yet others say "more down,,this is just the start",,so i'll remain partially exposed and partial profit taknig

0306
10min and 15min showing signs of turning bearish again intraday....

0301
ES bear HS on daily chart,,, i know many see it,,, several days now on the right shoulder....yes one can also see an inv HS bullish LOL,,, the bear HS is bigger tho

0254
they r trying v hard on ES dbl bot / bull inv HS on 3min,,but using a lot of energy on 15min to do so,,,v interesting,,,tricky here intraday,,,,still def have swing short setups

0251
if the 10min repairs itself i'd feel more comfy short scalp,,,still have the tza tho

0246
tza could still hit the 3771 trgt today, limit order set to sell there if able (most scalp shares not all)

0244
watching for the infamous 3min ES bull inv HS that they like :),,, prepared to cover short scalps on trigger of it

0240
i still have no buy in spx intraday,,rather have a "short the rally"

0230
more tza 3705,,,,still have 3703 tza


too,,,just buying bak what was sold b4
 
0215
thinking of buying bak tza,,,not yet

0207
taking 25% of shares off here at .50 for 1% profit on the scalp,,,3748 sold,,,paid 3703,,, > 1% prof

0204
well tza hit the .27 and .37 followed as expected,,,,

0203
might take profits on 25% of those BAC puts today if it breaks, puts at 16% profit here but that should pop higher if bac breaks

200
meanwhile faz leads again,,,at its high of day test now,,,about to make higher hig

159
got the .27 on tza....lets see if the dynamic kicks in

158
under 1066 we have 1062 support but then not mycg support b4 1051

154pm
i'd like to see the tza and faz bull flags convert to bear rising wedges in coming hours,,then they will pull back after the wedge move up completes,, i intend to ride the wedge up if this happens,,via swing ride

153
tza has marginally broken above its 3min coil....still needs the .27 to trigger the coil bull dynamic

150
tza need to stay over 3686 and pref 3705....a violatino under 3705 i might get out of the scalp (keeping swing)

148
if tza gets over .27 then it should test to .38, and the .38 "should" breka higher (per coil dynamics)

142
ah the xlf is also pushing on its lower DAILY boll band,,its bearishly strething it vs the less bearish "quik pop below"

140
we r still in the chop whipsaw setup here to me

137
3993 (not today) target in the newly defined tza daily up channel,,,

134
ES sell program warning at 1072

134
we need the tza 10min stoch to turn bak up n hit 70,,,,flat now at 60

133
VIX charts are confirming daily bearishness,,,,

132
the XLF has ALREADY broken its lower BB on 3min..bearish warning

131
one min later, we got the warning there...lets see

130
yea...watching for 1073 break on es would be a warning of bear flag break lower

128
xlf is showing weaker than russel or spx now,,,xlf could drag em down yet again

123
a break of ES 1072 would break the bear flag lower,,,,

109pm
ES 15min,,,bear flag

1258
tza just hit the 3737 target and backed off,,,still holding

1255
taking 25% of shares off tza here to lock 0.75% profit

1255
hmm the 15min tza has a bullish continuation candle pattern if it holds this 15min low...the 5 methods modified

1251
3737 first scalp trgt tza

1245
if the 2min stoch hits 40 on tza it should pop up nicely,,,last 25,,,,inability to do so it will likely fall more,,,14,3,3 stoch 2min

1244
mini sell prog warn in ES at 1073,,

1240
last 3696 tza but premise to trade still valid for me

1237
nervous would exit now breakeven,,,i'm willing to hold awhile and add more lower tza if needed, for now i still like it

1235
TZA is now back at .03,,,,staying in for now

1229
3703 was hit,,, filled :D

1228
i am doing tza lim 3703 buy if filled here

1222
agressive could actually prepare for a scalp short here,,,soon,,,pattern developing not confirmed,,short then long, es 1073

1219
ES has R here at 1072 trendline,,,see if the new trednline holds

1216
grr i missed a "add more BAC shorts 1317 by one cent,,,no fill...hit 1316

1213
i'll use the high vol SPY --for nice fills on scalp and just buy 3x # of shares to mimic/correlate to upro for 3x,,no long scalp yet

1206
well the 3min stoch


did its thing with under 20 and moving over

mentinoed b4,,,but other things are

iffy,,,i'd wait for the 1minute chart to

pullbak b4 long scalp,,,sso resis around 3501 trendline R

1200
ES down channel now officially replaces the bull wedge,,,until 1074 ES breaks higher, in 3min

1155
tza 3770 trgt

1153
if es hits 1066 then faz should hit the 1607 trgt,,, i think lol,, last 1592

1150
TZA is pushing outside and above its upper BOLL band,,,which usually means higher tza,,,BUT a short signal is given upon a close under the upper bak inside,,, so i may take profits on another 25% and hold the other 25% swing with stop below 34,,,and then try to buy back the 25% sold when it gets bak inside the BB and the "short tza" setup fades

1149
ok the BAC has hit the 1302 support,,,a bounce would be normal but this may just crak with no bounce over 1311

1146
see this ES bull fall wedge is converting to a down channel instead as discussed b4,,,wedges r fun but tricky to trade

1140
BAC is very near its prior 1302 low a few days ago,,,1305 last,,,will prob get lil bounce but not covering any here,,could break below

1139
1066 ES trgt still

1134
3min stoch needs to fall below 20 again and the base b4 i consider long scalp

1131
i wont get a "scalp long" setup for at least 30min,,,maybe longer (hours) if at all,,, being patient is often hard esp if one is tick watching,,,someteims good to just walk away if tempted to enter too early

1129
ES did break higher marginally from its 3min wedge,,,but i'm waiting to see if such wedge converts to down channel

1127
my "hold short all day" signal is still in effect, currently says "may get some upside or sideways but hold on and no new longs yet" at ES 1075

1108
XLF 60min hist just crossed under 0 which some use as a swing short signal,,,i dont use it because it usually comes late and results in chop first,,,there is USUALLY time to get in short, or add shorts to previous positions after some chopping around,,,but it may be enough  to propel FAZ upward to the 1607 target during such whipsaw

1104
i might try upro long scalp unsure,,,on 1072 ES

1051
MID TERM TARGET
my SPX target is 977,,,,via non ewave analysis,,, math analysis suggests 977 which just so happens to land right near 977.64 prior support at Aug 17. That is, a few diff independent analysis suggests 977, the 977 not chose just cuz it was Aug support, then 816 is my next target,,,,then see what happens if we get there,, i didn't make or "force" the analysis to hit 977 it just landed there

1046
FAZ has hit its 1570 exactly trgt on the touch of 1570 ,, stil have that 1607 target from a week ago

1042
i got a swing signal at tza 3130, last tza 3638, up 16% so far,,,,faz up 16% roi too
 
1038
re: options,,,if they bring BAC under 12.88 it would really mess up some optinos holders,,,so maybe it makes it down there,,,but not a tradeable strategy,,,in any event 12 target

1032
 theres a type of morn star daily bullish setup (creative) on tza

1028
looking for entry to buy back tza but requires patience for right entry,,,i'll only add on a 15min chart 3min combo,, still have half of tza shares, and still in faz swing

1011
i will try to buy back,,,will hold at least 25% tza for 3700 3800 4500 6000 targets

1009
3594 stop on 25% of tza,,,,and lower stop on other 25% (have 50% left,,,took profits at 4% and 7% thus far)

1005
forced again to take some tza profits here at 7% roi, per rules,,,will try to buy later bak

1002
es should stall here and i'll likely take a lil off...watching,,,if no stall 1078 then weak

1001
LOL the 1082 broke while typing :)

1000
charts do suggest a slower move down tho if we get it....around here there are multiple mini supports

959
right now for me,,,v good chance to break 1082 es....my chart say "stay short all day" right now (may change in 15 or 30min)

957
i'm taking 25% of skf off here to lock profits 2147,,per rule on trgt achivied i need to take some off

953
xklf is running into support here now,,,watching as faz skf at R,,,still see lower xlf n higher faz, but this is a decent spot to take partial profits

935
yea looking for lower trgts today,,,3711 is my "real" first swing trgt but will buy sell buy in between if able

932
tza trgt 3565 then 3593 on break of 3512, then 3711 with stalls in between tza

913
SHORTIE i think we can bounce once more to marginally higher hi 1103ish and still get the p3,,tho bias is down for now for the lower targets

834
if  ES 1082 breaks then 1074 trgt

Thurs 8:28 AAM
bought bak tza i sold yest at 3528 for  3430, still have other tza shares at lower levels

Wedn 7:52 PM
not sure if ES will bounce to 1090/92 but if it does then still a bear HS 60min pattern will be formed,,,needs to get higher to avoid bearishness

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

0415
i am cancelling the skf sell 2143 AH and raising the price to 2163 for now

0407
will sell some tza n try to buy back later ,,,3530 for

0405
sold



some tza 34.99 AH...other 25%,,,still


have half,, wow shouldve waited made 3515 lol,, but 3.8% profit in one day is fine too

0400
grr missed 2123 by 3 cents,,,forced to sell at close 2120 skf,,,holding tza faz skf swing

0352
3470 limit sell more tza if able scalp

0343
limit sell some skf 2124 last 2117/.... 2117 was a trgt

0339
taking 25% off more tza here at same target for 2.09% scalp profit,,,still have half left

0328
3:34 PM trgt to break 1093 if velocity stays constant

0326
tza back at the 2% profit here now if missed b4,,,at 3455,,,i'm holding mine for higher trgt

0325
skf trgt 2124,,2133

0323
tza hit 3454 or one penny over the 3453,,,sold some tza at 3543 trgt,,,still have 75%

0322
ES trgts: 1093,90,88 with stall each one

0315
skf hit 2114 trgt exactly and stalled,,,still see it going up moer

0312
there goes TZA,,,taking 25% of sharess off for 1.5% profit (scalp not swing tza)

0312
skf need 2114 to get going...its gone up to 2107 so far

0310
ahh..now the skf stoch has hit its target...lets see how much upside it gives this time....

0309
theres the below the mkt short ES 109450 :D :P ,,, the ES broke 1095 within the 8 minutes

0307
ES 1095 is still breakable....watching,,target in 8 minutes

0302
skf faz stoch only 32,,,need the > 42,, no momentum yet

0259
hmm minor buy progr warning now ES,,but contractictory reports

0258
agressive could short here on expectation of 1095 es break next try,,,or below the mkt 109450

0255
one could say theres a bear rising wedge on ES 15min,,the wedge has broken lower BUT it could climb back inside where there is more upside before the apex,,not a decisive break

0253
yea....ES close to testing 1095 not there just yet,,,watching if it breaks it if it does test it

0246
charts r suggsting a 1095 break in es lower on next test

0236
my declining resis on SKF is now at 2104 not 2108,,,suggesting a break over 2104 would break the downchannel

0233
swing trader algo just flashed another BUY TZA

0231
my work suggests sellers are above mkt at 1099 and BELOW mkt at 1090 ES

0221
last stoc at 25,, i dont assume succes on the cross over 20, rather i want to see the 42 stoch

0220
new stoch breakout target revised for SKF is 10min stoch over 42,,,should give upside,,,failure to do so will give sideways or more down

0218
tza target 3453 and 3554 and 3600/3625 trgts,,last 3405

0211
my software just threw a sell program warning at ES 1096

0211
BAC just broke its lower BB on the 3min

0210
suggesting the .09 should break higher,

0209
skf has resist at 2109 but a 2103 would still trigger a buy on it

0208
BAC lim to add more shorts 1348 was filled,,it hit 1349 ,,,now backed down to 1343

0206
skf 2109 will hit resist and prob stall there, last 2096

0203
they r trying to push XLF thru its resist,,,hasnt triggered buying yet depsite the minor viloation over yest high,,right now its bearish for xlf unless it breaks with force

0157
ES 3min has a bull pennant so watching to see if it will break higher or not,,,its right at resist tho

0140
more BAC short ...trade 2 of poss 4,,, 1348 near the 1350 trgt,,, will add more 1370,,or maybe add more lower, unknown

0125
another 25% may be added at 2:03 PM

0125
my program autotrader 81% success is entering tza swing here,,,25% size position 33.90

0117
bought bak tza i got stopped out on b4,,,here at 3380

0111
XLF just hit daily R...adding shorts in xlf via skf 20.93, and 1467 faz

1237
if skf takes out .31 it should go for HOD and higher

1226
adding some skf here at 2121

1223
well clearly i sold my gold too early and could have had better profits than the 4% i took by selling yest,,,,grr,,,gold just hit the target i had for it yest (sold b4 trgt hit)

1222
still no fill on the extra SKF....waiting at 2114 last 2120,, it may go to 2110 or below, so 25-50% size shares

1217
ES hit 1092 or 1 point from the 1093 R target b4 at 11:15 AM,,,i'll short on a retest up near that area

1204
i'll do skf 2114 lim if filled, last 2120

1138
wow tza missed my stop by 3 cents...still in tza,,i'll allow .37 not .43,,,will do manually maybe since so cloase,,, last 3470

1120
last trade--i'm trading the backtest down in ES to the broken coil...watching to see if it bounce up again or breaks even lower

1117
1497 faz scalp again

1115
the ES broke higher from the small coil...now ES also has a downchannel in 60min with R at 1093 now,,,watching to see if that breaks higher out of channel or holds down

1056
i'm also using skf RSI on 15min chart for an earlier signal in add to 60min: need 15min rsi over 64

1051
but charts are not setup to use the 10/15min stoch,,,needing to use the 60min rsi for now, for same trigger

1050
SKF simple view: if the rsi on 60min can get over 63 then it should pop higher nicely, last only 52,,,watching that for now,,,similar to the 10min stoch trigger from last several days (100% accurate signal thus far last 8 days) when triggered,,,that would be bullish skf, bearish skf, bear spx

1040
ES under 1088 is bearish, within a bear pennant 3min, intraday

1034
XLF has similar pattern on 10min chart

1032
*15min chart

1032
ES has a bearish modified 5 methods pattern 60min with 4 candles not 5,,,,but will need confirmation with a break under the LOD

1028
TZA trgts to be set after done watching ES here,,,wanna see what ES wants to do

1025
taking 9 cents profit here on half of faz scalp 1517

1022
this is the "pullback" i mentioned before in ES<,,we should know which way it deceides to go soon

1020
i have an agressive short entry setup scalp faz long 1508

1016
wow this tza is jumpin all around,,,stop on swing is set at 3443 to lock a little profit if stopped,,,took half off already for 4% profit,,,the other swing tza is up 12% (longer term swing from 3100ish)

0101
this pattern is ES>..whether bullish or bearish outcome,,,usually this will pull back from 1089 some,,,then decide to go up or down after the pullback

1004
xlf sell progr warn at es 108650, stage one sell would be mild if triggered,,then stage 2 bigger, if triggered

947
ES should stall here bounce,,,,if not shows weakness at 1084

945
FAZ trgt 1531 1555 1570 1607 1749 1810 1900 with 1570 and 1607 the primary initial ones

943
BAC is showing some strength this morn vs the spx but that just presents poss opp to add shorts,,,no additinos yet,, BAC currently at my entry price 1332 but 1340 1350 1370 all possible before declines

934
i'll take 25% of TZA off here to lock a 3% profit from buy yesterday,tho i see much higher,,,thats the tza from 34.23 not the 31.00 cost,, 31.00 tza is longer term swing

933
also interested in silver,,well gold has gapped down,,,glad i took the profits yest

922 AM Tues
i'm looking at BAC here now, for mid term holds 5-20 days,,still a v good stock to short,,,trying to pick spots,, but there are a variety of patterns to observe in it before adding shorts,, there's a bull fall wedge but thats within a downchannel,,,so seeing if it wants to break wedge higher to go for channel resist,,,or whether it just deteriorates inside the wedge slower
 
Tues eve 10:21 pm
I took profits on swing gold today but silver has a diff chart,,,looking at possible silver entry via 60.10 if able (last 60.97)... 59.30 is another buy area possibility,,, will be watching charts for appropriate entries

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".