Monday ramblings

0359
wouldnt be surprised to see a 2-5 pt drop in ES after close,,,by 430 or 6pm

0357
\i still like the faz swing short xlf,,,will keep it

0349
1550 faz into the close, with other entry at .63

0345
using .58 skf stop mental now under the .68

0338
i'mn buying the trendline touch 1557 faz

0330
SKF is rite at 3min support now,,,,watching to see if holds or breaks to next supprt level,, i think it will pivot up

0329
82% algo program trader just took profit on half of skf,,,, 100% wins since friday on it

0325
its within realm of poss that 1607 FAZ trgt is hit today

0313
still see 1070 trgt


from the 75 brk,,,then a rounded top break target of 1061 on break of 1069

0310
40 cents or 1.3% on the spxu piece

0308
taking 25% of that spxu from hours ago off here for 4 points ES,,,still holding for 8 or more ESpoints on the other 75%

0306
my skf stoch at 84 now up from 78---it still needs 90 on the 10min to break the high

0305
3min xlf has a buy but i dont wanna fight the 15 and 60min sell setups,,yet

0303
xlf has a 3min bull diverg but i am trying to hold the skf thru it,,,may get stopped out of last 25%,,,conserv would exit now for reentry

0258
selling 25% more up here to lock profits in skf,,and running with the last 25% until stoped out,,,holding the faz tza vxx bacshort swings

0255
if the stoch skf faz in 10min can hit 90 then it should make new HOD,,,last stoch 78,,, oversold is "good" /bullish when its newly oversold

0253
SKF hit the .88 trgt,,,it should now go after the HOD

0252
this one took aboput 15min to kick in

0251
this is stage one of the 2nd sell program warnin,,,stage 2 still valid to follow

0250
wow skf hit .71 or one penny from the .70 stop and pivoted up to 2181,,,i'm still in the 2nd half

0244
ES 1070 trgt on break of 1074.75

0243
this sell prog could break ES support,,so watching close

0237
i've got another xlf sell prog warning,,the first warning reliably triggered tday 3 min later,,good for next 3to 41 min

0235
BAC short here is also valid at .18---it looks like its headed for 1300

0234
i might double the BAC short at 1325 depending on chart landscape,,,if it gets there,,, last 1317

0228
*if .70 is hit,,i'll exit at the mkt

0227
the skf scalp is right at my mental stop,,,may exit here .72 .70 and reenter,,,still holding faz,,last skf .74

0225
so i'll hold this faz swing over 1500ish and exit the skf if mental stops hit

0224
xlf should go lower (tho may go higher first,,,my lower targets still i see them)

0221
mental stop at 2173 near my old orig trgt on skf

0217
trying a stop at 2165 for a few cents profit for now on remaining half of skf,,,taking another 25% off here 2182 and holding last half

0213
taking additinoal 10% profit on 25% of the BAC puts,,,expecting much more but locking some in here

0211
taking 2183 profits,,,close enuf to .86,, on 25% of shares

0208
skf just hit the older .78 target but now i've raised it to .86....waiting :)

0207
xlf stage 2 selling should happen here now

0202
ok we got the 10min stoch trigger signal on skf...its at 72 now...lets see if it can repeat fridays performacne,, a pullback down first in skf (up spx) would be normal

0201
conserv traders would use 2173 trgt,,,perhaps i may need to take 25% off there idk

0158
hmm now i have skf stret target for 25-50% of shares replacing the 2178 target,,,,i'll watch the .78 to see reaction for poss higher sell instead

0154
theres the sell program,,, 3 min later,,, the stoch is waking up on 10min,,now at 51,,,,still need the 61 on stoch to get going in faz skf :)

0152
i still have the 2178 sell 25-50% of skf to lock profit

0150
xlf sell prog warning,,,mild one, nothing fabulous, at es 1079

0149
charts 3min xlf say "should go down" but really we have "chop charts" for now still

0138
its one reason why i continue to hold the faz n xkf, for now,,,also the stoch macd rsi and trendlines

0137
no guarantees but the bull asc triangl in xlf did not breakout,,,and moved sideways instead,,,this behaviour is often bearish and will cause a collapse

0123
if we get 1077.75 ES should give 2 points more down

0104
chart landscape has changed,,,now i'm watching the 10min stoch on skf faz to get over 61 vs the older 60min stoch values

1255
that XLF and FAS bull asc triangle in 3min may have trapped some bulls,,,watching this now

1250
BELOW the mkt 1078,75 short es

1246
skf has a bear desc triangle but it is marginally failing and may turn bullish instead on a reverse breakout

1244
ABOVE the mkt SKF at 2167

1233
BAC is in trouble methinkgs,,,,"warning signs" no break yet, last 1324

12222
program trader



just added more skf 2156,,,position #2 of 4



possibly buys in skf
 
1218
thus far faz is holding its 60min uptrend channel support,, if it holds here my revised trgt is 1649 after 1607 is broken, last 1539,,,must hold around here to be valid

1204
now theres a buy progr warning,,,mixed chop signals,,,poss break higher in ES spx

1200
hmm i have a sell program warning here,,,other factors contradict it tho so watdhing, at es 1078.50

1131
program trader in for an early entry,,,, 2168 skf, 1545 FAZ

1129
my program trader may enter the skf or faz 25% starter position at 1131,,in 2 minutes



1126
a break of 107475 es ===> 1072 trgt

1125
60min skf is at 7150 now from 68.....watching that 78 for a breakout if its hit

1121
skf is 5 cents away from filling the .78 order to sell 1/4 to half of SKF for 1%ish profit

1118
..fwiw,,,my program autotrader is close to SHORTINGT the xlf for a multi-hour trade .this algo has 82% wins if triggered...its the same algo that did 2 wins on Friday (100% friday)

1115
i'll take 25% of skf shares off for profit on skf 2178 if able from 2163/2155

1111
if 107525 i'll take off 25-50% of ES shares for 3 points profit / 2.75ish

1104
the ES 1077.25 test gave a nice 9 min warning and plenty of time to enter short,,,,

1103
oops...those stochastics are for the 60min faz skf chart,,,not the 15min...today using the 60min,,,mistyped

1059
conversely a stoch move < 58 could turn the skf faz bearish,,,last 68

1056
simple view: watch the 15min FAZ or SKF stoch to hit 78 and that should cause a run for the highs or higher,,,,this is similar to the 10min stoch signal used friday that gave a signal 1 hour in advnce

1052
ES hit 1077.25--the 1078 shorts "should work" now

1051
1077.25 below the mkt short ES could work

1045
but if it can hurdle 1081 then maybe get some upside traction

1044
ES is having trouble at the 1078 area as expected,,,its now starting to form a bear rising wedge 3min,,,15min starting to look tired

1043
over 2200 i may consider reversing long

1042
COMP last 2189,,,,i will likely short comp 2195 if able

1040
i got filled on the skf buy at 2155 it hit .53 low so far

1029
the BAC DTL resist is at about 1342ish now on 60min,,,may add there if able short,,,tho the .31 is heavy resist until broken

1028
my analysis suggests that the FAZ should make another stoch trip on 60min chart over 78 for higher FAZ before a larger pullback (to re-buy),,,, unsure if we will get it but thats what i see,,hence my "holding the faz swing" for now

1023
shorting the ES




here at 1078 via spxu
 
1018
on ES i have a secxondary resist trendlinline dec;lining now at 1079, last 1077

0105
limit buy more skf 2155 if able,,,prob will not get a fill, last 2166

1010
reloading on skf scalp here at .68,,,a

1006
ES is now testing impt trendline resist,,,watching,,, 1075

1001
skf which is short xlf is v strong over 2176 intraday,,,steep uptrend support line,,,,my 60min timing analysis suggests that today might present an opp to sell some FAZ to take some profits,,,and then re-enter swing at a lower price to buy back,,,will be watching

956
ES 3min has the inv HS bullish but the XLF i see a daily bear flag,,,believe the xlf will prevail in the dual

955
i know its been 3 days and the ES 1062/51 targets havent been hit but i still see them, for now

953
scalpers can lock in 10 cents profit here on skf,,,of course i'll hold longer

951
i just got a mild "sell progr warn" for xlf,,,may spill over to ES, at ES 1073.25

948
my 15 and 60min charts are saying "short rallies",, 3min says buy LOL

944
when the 5,3,3 not 14,3,3 stoch 3min skf hits <20 i will likely add another 25% to skf scalp for 50% size,,,but will chek charts when it gets there

942
theres is also a larger bear HS tho with a 10 point range LOL,,,a clunky one requiring "aritistic poetic license", 15min ES chart

939
skf,,scalp, taking 25% position new here at 2171

936
sellers "should be" waiting at 1071, 74, and 75 ES,,,if not then possible ES rally,,,still have bear bias for now under that 1080 DTL

934
if BAC can break


that 1294 then BAC could fall fas,,tho i expect bounce there first
 
Looking for a spot today to possibly double the BAC position before taking profits

929
for holds over 1 hour,,,ES has a clunky bear HS type thing while under 1074 that points to a target of 1061 if the 1071 breaks,, interestingly the 1061 ir right at Fridays target 1064/62

922
if BAC hits 1298--1305ish i may take profits on half of those options puts

912
ES has 2 declining resist trrendlines now at 1076 and 1080 R,,,will be watching to see if those hold. If so, Friday's lower are still the target,,, 1064/61 and 1051.... still have the lower 1051 as valid while ES < 1080

909
Today some of the swings might hit their targets to sell half of the position, will be watching....


9:08 AM
SWINGS: VXX is now at the 10% roi profit level, starting to catch up to FAZ 15% and TZA 22% (from 31.30 cost)... Gold continues its slow ascent up, the DGP is up about 2% pre-market and 4.5% roi, the newly acquired position friday in BAC short is up 1% pre-mrkt.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".