Monday ramblings

349
ES may sell a little now into the close, last 1325, not scalping it

346
1984 TYP could work here, swing, or short qqqq 5770 here

318
one idea: 1321.50 ES pivot into the close, over that bullish, under it bear, last 1323

314
shorting QQQQ a few cents below its high of day, or long typ 19.42, could work,,,swing, if they decide to test highs

313
ES chart is tricky,,,one roadmap suggests it still has a drift higher today,,,

309
TYP lim buy long 1942 could work,,,typ is like 3x shorting qqqq

302
vxx may want 2890 first

259
with recent ES action, looks better to me to wait on vxx,,,,no longer like that 3001 now,,, will observe reactions

252
small VXX 10% size could work at 30.01 if it gets there, 3045  last

206
lower es is likely in coming hours days, but for a trend change, ES needs to close at least below its daily support utl, is still over it put in a lower hi and a lower low,,,

149
If IBM breaks support at 161.27 then it can move to  160.30ish  159.30ish v quickly

134
60min ES may be forming a bear HS,,,too early to tell now'

132
for me, its a "hold ibm shorts" setup atm

131
sellers "should be" waiting at 163.00 ibm if it bounces that hi, bounce trgt is under 162.47 for now tho

128
IBM just hit 161.35 or 8 cents over its mini trgt .27,,,close enough to consider hitting it,,,watching reaction,,,still seee lower IBM tho may bounce around here

1257
that was a high vol sell of on 3min es,,,suggests a shortable bounce

1253
one poss roadmap:  will ES move to 1304 and begin to coil on daily?

1251
EUO and dollar are moving up slowly

1249
a vix 15min stochastics trip to 80, then to 20, with a higher low at 20, would be bullish for vix,,may take awhile more,,, would be bullish for vix and bearish for spx dow

1243
hmm RSX 4088 short looks interesting (Russia)

1201
EUO is filling its gap, still see higher euo

1148
spx is up 0.42% today vs IBM down 0.30%

1123
ibm mini lower trgt is first test of 161.30, last 162.07.,,,, 161.30 needs to break for more downside,,will watch reaction there if it tests,,,still think short IBM is a "hold short"

1052
NWSA has a poss bear broadening formation on daily, if so these can be violent, volatile, with large downside moves if/when it comes

1051
ibm daily,,,lower highs since feb 8

1050
IBM to me is weaker than spx and a better short, for ex

1048
DBA topping too, further along than SLV, dba shorts could work

1046
Silver SLV is carving out a topping pattern, swing, still in process of forming, early entry shorts could work at test of prior daily high, tho may make higher hi first

1046
UNG continues higher, still see higher UNG toward upper trgts

1046
but it still seems easier to trade individual stocks vs the spx itself

1045
swing shorts could work here, initial stops over 1348

1044
SPX now in the swing resistance zone 1328---1333

1036

DBA Mar 19 2011 32.0 Put

 could work here, for aggressive trade, at 5 cents,,,,could go to 0 but also could go to 10 or 20 cents (400%) or higher if dba goes down,,unsure if one could get a fill at 5 cents or not


953
NWSA short here 1749 could work, last 1750

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

415
for ES,, HeikinAshi chart (vs traditional candle) shows the last 4 days as all red, with today a long leg doji,,,tho doji interpretation on Heikin is different than normal candle dojis,, on Heiken today was red not green,, for SPY   QQQQ Heikin is green today

346
SPX is up today, but about 10 of the dow 30 stocks are "red", from yest close not open

335
my software is throwing a sell signal into close but i'm not trading it

327
we could go lower next week,,,a look at SPY shows that usually tho not always the red weeks come in 2 or 3 candles, weekly chart (of course not the last one hehe)

325
if 1317 es breaks it could sell into the close,,,1318 last,

309
DBA 34.72 here short could work too,,,the higher short trgt was not hit 3489

302
IBM short at 162.03 could work, 162.66 not hit, may be hit, but this looks reasonable here too

242
DBA short 34.89 could work, last 34.73

216
stopped out of remaining DUG

213
IBM short at 162.66 could work, last 161.82

200
TYP 19.65 could also work, swing, last 19.84,, personally i think TYP is better than DRV,,

129
DRV 14.93 long could work if its hit, 1508 last, swing,

1244
UNG has broken higher, nice big green candles now

1227
SPX got the move lower, followed by bounce as expected,,,bounce not done yet, watching reactions,,,poss short spx setup coming but no entry yet

1219
UNG just hit 531 or 1cent under 532 resist trgt,,,see higher but watching reaction here

1214
euo 60m has bull inv HS

1146
in coming days, DBA may be re-shortable,,,watching 60min chart,,,still needs more work before entry,,,expecting a move down to a lower low after the move up finishes,,,,then maybe reverse long, in coming days weeks

1140
1316 last spx

1140
Daily spx: poss in wave 2 up here, with a w3 down to follow to new lows

1131
15min DUG in a coil i expect to break to upside but watching,,, monitoring for exit here if needed to lock profits, holding for now

1126
a close over yest hi would confirm the UNG bull hammer from yest,,,,its currently above it and confirmed atm

1122
532 next resist from ung, and it may break it htis time higher without a pullback, on the third drive to a high

1118
for approx 11% and 22% roi trgts

1117
UNG continues basing, and i still expect a breakout higher toward 5.80 and 6.40 targets (approx trgts, more precise trgts later), last 5.22

1030
DUG just testing .30 area and held thus far, wtaching closely here,,,poss bull hammer forming at support on 3min

1022
SLV is silver etf

1022
silver 60m may be forming a rounded top, unsure,watching

1014
i'm looking to re-short NWSA but its too early here, having taken profits earlier on the prior short

1004
i'm CANCELLING the order to short GILD, will do manually later maybe

1003
the hard stop is in place just in case of a fast move down that doesnt allow time to place an order to get out fast enough

1002
i have a hard stop 2807 on DUG, over cost to assure no loss on remaining shares, mental stop on 2830,,,if 2830ish doesnt hold i may exit to take profits b4 the 2807 is hit, will observe reactions

942
i have an order to short GILD 3946 if filled,swing, target 38.00, 36.50, 36

931
Poss bull morning star pattern on EUO this morn as it gaps higher. will watch for confirmation.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings

400
Didnt get a fill on GILD short,,,will try again tomorrow, no rush,,,may raise the short limit price

359
lower es is likely tho a bounce may come first,,,, the first doji may allow a pop higher but should turn lower later,,,,often the first doji set will cause sideways or bounce up,,then a lower low,,,then the next doji may give a reversal higher,,,dojis work better when the trend is in place longer than a few days,,, first doji usally a conitune pattern (in this case lower after poss bounce)

354
TBT: possible bull morning star,,,watching to see if it gaps up tomorrow,,,today would be day 2 of 3 day pattern that needs confirmation on 4th day or few days after

340
GILD short 39.13 limit could work if filled, 3884 last

320
wow SLV now down 5%

314
watching SLV reactino here, near a support level, may stall/bounce or break lower

313
slv selling hard now, 3240 to 3140

244
tlt held support,,,charts suggest it will break tho it may take a few tries, on 60min chart (TBT resist)

217
silver and dba starting to sell some here, watching to see if sustains,,still early selling

202
DUG hit  29.11 or one cent over the 29.10 trgt , stalled, and pb a bit,,,still see higher targets for DUG

148
DUG just hit an interim trgt, 3% roi, from entry at the close yesterday

144
DUG buy alert, may break the triangle now

125
DUG has a bull asc triangle with a trgt of about 29.10 if broken to upside, 15min chart

114
TBT 15min has a 3x bull diverg with macd/rsi and price,,,, and macd hist ready to cross over 0

109
to me the 60min ES suggests such rally but it should be shortable once its done,,,notice the rsi bull diverg is there but its a weak divergence, which suggests its shortable, but the bounce is expected on such diverg,

1256
tbt may still watn those lower trgts, unsure, but starting here

1255
TBT: early entry based on near lower buy trgt 1 posted b4,,,and a bull diverg on 60min,,,tho 60min diverg not finished nor complete

1252
i'll scalp some TBT here 38.11, to hold overnight if needed, may take some profit today

1247
ibm approaching 158.90 trgt, will waqtch reactions in this area, last 159.44, watching for stall bounce,or if support breaks, usually support will hold on first try but observing for now

1238
DUG has nice 60min bull diverg rsi, and is trying for rsi bull failure swing, if so then it should go higher toward upper targets

1125
this pattern in silver,,it will usually go down, bounce, then down hard,,,,the first down  (poss happening now) should bounce

1118
silver daily, looks like topping

1054
tbt may want to go down to 3775 or 3665

1052
TBT long swing entry may present, no entry yet, may need few more hours work

1041
shorter term (days) the DBA 60min and daily chart suggest a lower low, then a bounce to a lower high

1038
since november, this is the FIRST TIME that DBA has been below the center boll band line,, i see more downside in agriculture as it corrects, then poss re-entry long,,,i remain short the dba for now

1032
DUG now at gap resist, also a profit area , 2.2% roi here

1031
obviously an interim lower DUG target would be near yest high

1027
IWM russel resist at 80.70 will watch reaction there for poss formation of bear HS daily,,could overshoot target first,will watch

1024
in coming weeks months, ung could see a 20% move up, but one step at a time

1018
a look at spy charts since March 2009 year does show that usually SPY red WEEKLY candles often come in groups of 2 or 3, so could see more down first

1009
Looking for entries in TZA,,,none yet, may take a few hours for a setup to present ,,,for additional swing shorts

949
DUG ultrashort is up despite ES being higher, shows why shorting a sector can work, if ES falls than DUG should rise faster

939am
DUG limit order sell 30.87, last 28.01, may sell half of it sooner

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

403
dug is 2x ultraSHORT oil and gas companies, not crude commodoity itself,,Component companies include oil drilling equipment and services, oil companies (major and secondary), pipelines, liquid, solid or gaseous fossil fuel producers and service companies.

359
going long DUG 2802 here,,,starter position, early entry

325
I dont want to hold NG overnight so am exiting here near breakeven 13.95 ,, if silver SLV declines tomorrow it can press NG lower

223
ES just hit 1307 trgt posted b4

211
5.29 UNG is at resist test now,,,target profit area #1,,,still  have higher trgts if this breaks higher

209
1427 NG target,  1378 last

157
i will lim sell half ung 5.39,,,last 5.28, for 3% roi if hit

150
ES did hit 1298 but bounced

109
euro breaking lower, may test lows, as euo moves higher

1242
UNG may breakout today,,still watching that, same targets,, is exhibiting breakout higher warnings now, 5.21 last

1236
ES is acting exactly as expected, hittinglower  targets and stalling bouncing

1236
15min bull hammer es, needs confirm close over the 15min hi,,60min also forning a hammer

1229
then 1313

1228
1307 es first trgt

1213
:) ES hit both its 2 downside targets from 3 days ago,,,,ES "should" now bounce or move sideways, but long entry is early or aggressive

1210
NG here, long, 13.87

1208
the hit of 1302.50 "might" have satisfied the 1300 trgt,,,watching reactions near here now

1150
1406ish is also support per feb 1 high

1149
approaching 1300 trgt, 1306 last

1149
still watching es 1300, same trgt,,,may bounce if it hits there or 1302,,,will watch reaction

1004
dba is lower again here, i remain short dba agriculture for now

959
EUO and UUP are setting up nice 15min bull diverg, not finished forming, suggesting higher usdollar ,lower euro, i remain in euo for swing

953
IBM this morn is actually holding up well vs SPX,, ibm up 0.18%,, may go long ibm then re-short it

931
NFLX has gapped down AGAIN today, after having completed the 5day bear pattern we were watching from last week

923
i'm still watching the ES 1300 to see if it tests that support or not, 1314 last,, 1300 same trgt as yest

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

416
 es may still hit 1300 first tomorrow,,but should get bounce even so,,,similar to 1/28 and 1/31 candles, lower first possible

341
KEEPing the euro shorts swing

340
I'm going to cover my swing CAT short  today and take a 0.5%--1% ish loss,,,i  think CAT goes lower but money is better invested elsewhere, for me

331
took profits on half, stopped out

330
*7397 costco cost stop, lowered, riding

325
*7412 stop on half

323
it makes sense to take off half of CSCO shares and hold half,,,using stop,,, now min 7416 or lower for half

315
its at trgt 1 now,,,7390--7400

314
still in COST short,,,riding lower till stopped out,,, hard stop 7446, mental stop 7415,,if over 7415 will watch closely, last 7402

244
poss bull V on 3min EUO

227
could see 5.40 today UNG

227
lim to sell half of ung 5.73 if able (prob not today), may sell half today at lower price, unsure

216
atm, to me,,,60min ES says possibly lower, and lower euro could also press it

211
euro moving lower,,,, i still see lower euro,,i think shorting euro is pref to shorting es atm

: for me,,, i remain on sidelines watching es for now


210
i'm watching 60min to see if ES wants 1300 first b4 bounce, 1315 last,,, watching 15min to see if sideways continues to lower or higher

142
i exited nwsa for about 2%ish profit and will look for reentry points, ES charts are bearish but a bounce can happen in this area,,,i'd rather step aside

128
ES just hit the 1314 trgt from last night / early this morn

122
i have sstop mkt to cover IBM shorts over 162.34,,,if stopped out will take small profit and look to reenter higher

116
may want 217ish b4 bounce, unknown

115
i'm exiting NFLX short near breakeven here, maybe enter again later,,,its bearish but other better opps

1257
1300 es trgt after 1314, the 1300 is horiz breakout #, and 1300 is also daily uptrendline support, same trgts from 5 days ago

1157
DBA is correcting lower :)

1152
possible breakdown on euro 15min chart happening right now

1039
dollar daily may make new highs on 3rd drive to a high,,, same with EUO, in coming hours days, EUO target is to test 19.92, stall , then break it higher

1004
NG futures made an overnight hi that may want to be tested, could push UNG higher today

1003
19.23 long EUO looks good here for swing, as a way to short euro 2x,,, to add to existing position or new entries

945am
the 5 day NFLX pattern we were watching last week resolved bearishly to downside as expected, expecting more down for swings

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

Just a few notes today, as we are on vacation

901pm
News from cnbc.com
Deadly Quake rocks New Zealand, Topples Buildings
Moody's Changes Japan's Rating Outlook to Negative
Libya Rattles Global Markets; Oil Prices Spike to Over $90

858
if 1325 ES doesnt hold then next support 1314 fib, or 1310 (trendline plus horiz supp),, think we see  a test there

851pm
from all the way back to Jan 19, the 262% fib on ES was 1342.77 and ES hit a hi of 1343,, amazing,, reversed to 1327 last


1127am
ES is down 13 points atm, near prior low support 1328, last 1329,,, watching if support holds for bounce/sideways or break lower

Silver futures are up at the moment

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

330
one idea would be to exit 526 ung if able and look for reentry next week

327
UNG daily trgt now lowered to 5.26

316
now the 60min dx has bull harami, and a close 60min over prev hi will confirm that one,,,the 60min should get better followthru,, would send EUO higher if so

311
or cup handl, but only in 3min so weak

311
euro 3min bear HS

304
we got , barely, a 15min confirm on euo,,,wathcing to see if gets followthru

300
i will lim sell 5.38 half of UNG instead of 558, good for the day

248
es,,heres the bounce,,,,still sideways higher a bit more imo

239
if EUO confirms it bull harami on 15min,,,it likely will also get a macd hist bull cross at same time, or close to it

227
the fact that VXX only pulled back slightly at the 2917 trgt is v bullish for vxx,,,2932 last

226
15min bull harami on DX,,,, a 15min cancle close over this 15min hi would confirtm,,, which would send EUO higher

218
ES "should" move sideways here and bounce,,,inability to do so would be bearish

202
Daily GILD candles are bearish tho not confirmed yet,,,i am still swing short there

155
lim sell half ung 5.58 if able, avg cost 5.28 from 2 buys

144
VXX just hit its trgt from 2 days ago, 2917,,still see higher vxx for swings, tho this is a profit taking area

116
going for a walk, nothing near where i want to buy or sell it at, be back later

112
60min es still bullish, last es 1341.75

111
3min bear HS on ES,,,but not v reliable on this small range

1240
UNG 60min bull diverg,,,is basing here,,,either it holds 5.15 and pivots higher or else it needs a new lower low

1239
25-50% size position, UNG is volatile

1237
UNG 5.20 here stop 5.12 could work

1232
but nflx support is holding for now,,,it remains support until broken

1231
NFLX may crak soon lower

1221
XLP is setting up a shortable pattern to me,,,but too early now,,, requires few more hours at least

1217
3min EUO looks good,,,watching to see if follows thru here

1206
,UNG 60min is carving out a 60min bull diverg,,,not finished yet of course

1143
thus far,, VXX is able to stay mostly green today despite ES creep higher,,,suggests higher VXX and lower ES in coming hours days


1123
euo just hit 1930 or one cent below the 1931 trgt,, may want lower to other supports but long here could work

1119
UNG ung 3min looks like it wants higher

1112
VXX 3min has a bull divergence

1106
EUO 1938 long could work here

1050
trading strategy:  it doesnt always work, nothing does, but if a stock is very oversold for days before earnings, often it will sell off after earnings despite what earnings report says,, if a stock is stable, at support, but not oversold b4 earnings, then often it will surge afterwards higher,, DELL is an example of the latter, and CSCO the former

the stability suggests that MarketMakers are long the stock, holding it up, but not forcing it to oversold,,,perhaps even selling in days b4 report to keep it at support as they buy more

1031
for swings, vxx daily looks good,,usually when we see these dojis, they go up not down,,, cuz its at the start of the move up,,,if dojis are in middle of move up,,,or if move up is several days, then dojis warn of lower maybe,,,but usually the first set is higher

1013
uso 3680---3700 resistance, last 3652

1007
60min chart stochastics suggests nflx bounce but also a retest of 60min lows, and likely  a lower low

1005
atm NFLX charts suggest the bearish not bullish resolution, from swing perspective,, NFLX also has another pattern, daily bear shoot star that would be confirmed with a daily close beneath its low

956
NFLX: still watching same candle pattern on daily as posted yetsreday, still forming,, if NFLX gets a big green bar today it could be a bullish rising methods continuation pattern, a break of the low and close under would be bearish formation

955
EUO is etf for shorting euro, as euro moves lower the EUO moves higher

954
and 1938 is gap support,,holding atm but 15 and 60min charts suggests sideways or could go lower, sideways

953
,may want to test 1931

952
EUO 19.31 support, last 1939, also supp at 19.17, 19.09

944
USO hit 3652, over the 3647 target from yest,,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Trading Earnings Reports Trading strategy

trading strategy: it doesnt always work, nothing does, but if a stock is very oversold for days before earnings, often it will sell off after earnings despite what earnings report says,, if a stock is stable, at support, but not oversold b4 earnings, then often it will surge afterwards higher,, DELL is an example of the latter, and CSCO the former
the stability suggests that MarketMakers are long the stock, holding it up, but not forcing it to oversold,,,perhaps even selling in days b4 report to keep it at support as they buy more



 
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings

400
sold uso 2 cents from high of day

356
stopped,,,took profits on half uso,

355
3606 stop

351
idea: use lim sell 3623 uso

344
*3647 not 3657

344
3628 is the 3min chart trgt

343
uso made new high of day,,still trying the 3657 lim sell half of it

330
uso trading idea, could take profits here at 3597 or hold overnite for higher trgts,,,ideal would be for it to hit 3647, take profit today and reenter

227
3min uso chart suggests 36.28 trgt, which is below the 36.47 limit order trgt,, will keep 3647 for now, may exit 3628 if cant get .47

110
conversely a break of yesterdays high without pb could send it surging higher

110
could drop here to .50ish and still be bullish

109
uso just hit interim trgt #2 3588,, still see higher trgts,,,plenty of time left today

1256
OIL waking up now,just hit first interim trgt, still see higher uso

1220
3577  3588 are interim USO trgts, still long oil for now,,3647 swing trgt #1

1151
SLV hit 3062, or 2 cents over 3060 trgt

1143
vxx should make new daily highs soon

1131
adding some here short 3041 slv

1126
if i werent already short i wouldve added here at .40

1125
i'll short slv lim 30.60 above .44

1102
1331 scalp trgt, bounce, then poss reshort

1058
1333 es short could work here

1053
a half size euro short / dollar long could work here, or euo 19.49

1029
uso 60min has a poss bull inv HS on 60min rsi

1028
IBM moving higher today with ES, unlike prev few days,,,still see lower IBM, may add some shorts if ibm can get higher

1026
vxx hit 2880 interim trgt, other interim trgt 2880, 2917,, could see 2917 today

1011
NFLX, one thing i'm watching, is daily candle pattern: if nflx can break the low of the last large green candle, today or tomorrow, it would be bearish,,, if the lows hold then we have a poss bull rising methods continuation pattern

1004
trgt lim 3647 USO, tho there r interim targets lower

958
uso long 3558 could work here, tradding idea

949
still looking to short euro again, no entry yet, swing, waiting for last 2 days

946
vxx 3093 trgt last 2876 for coming hours/days,,,,vxx can move as much as $2.50 in a single day if it gets moving, tho unsure we get that today

943
VXX continues higher, could put sell pressure on the ES SPX, has made another daily high over yest hi

942
i placed a limit order to cover IBM short at  158.77 from 163.23 entry,,, will then look to reshort expected bnc there, last 16303

929am
good morning

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

424
spy wicks afterhours are pointing down to 133.05 from 133.73

400
lim sell half VXX 30.93, not 29.04 in coming hours days,, raised price



352
VXX is moving higher despite ES at its highs,,,VXX making new daily highs also,,,suggests lower spx coming hours days

330
lim sell half VXX 29.04 in coming hours days

319
vxx going higher, good for swing long vxx

307
vxx 3min chart remains bullish despite fact that ES QQQQ 3min charts are also higher,,,

302
cancelled order to short euro, will do manually later maybe,,, lim order never filled

259
UNG lim sell 5.58

156
taking a small position long swing in UNG 5.35

119
almost ready to re-short euro for 3rd time,no entry yet,,,may take another few hours tho LOL for entry,,,waiting for a fast spike higher OR smaller 60min candles

104
i'm staying out of TLT   TBT for coming hours / days to let it consolodate ,,,could go either way now

103
TLT hit 9032 today, or 5 cents from its 9037 trgt from 3 days ago (no positions in TLT,,,,took profits yest at lower levels)

1220
i'll lim buy euo long 1942 if able, last 1956, as a way to short the euro,, may pay more later after charts settle but trying for 1942 for now

1216
SLV may want 3044 where i will add swing shorts if it gets there,,, 3040--3070 trgt zone to add if gets there, no limit orders yet to add, last 3019

1210
took profits on VXX scalp at 2809 from 2765, lim order filled

1202
lim selling vxx 2809 not 2799 ,, will sell lower if trgt not hit




 
1201
lim selling vxx 2799 not 2792

1141
oil is at trgt #1 now,,,still see higher but this is a poss profit taking area on partial shares, or can hold for higher,,,roi atm 0.85%ish on 1x, or 1.6% on 2x

1131
this may press the es lower

1130
euro is approaching resist here, still moving up a little atm

1107
lim sell vxx 2792 if able from 2768

1038
\once again,,, ibm is not participating in the SPX rallies,, still short on ibm at breakeven / small profit atm

when spx falls, ibm should fall nicely


1017
2768 vxx adding

953
silver breaking down, tho still in 60min uptrend, still short, but 3min fell off a cliff

950
i'll short BAC 15.62, prob wont hit that today, 1487 last,,,may scale in lower with a half size position later, no entries yet

937
VXX daily is right at the apex of its bull falling wedge, a breakout higher in next 3 days is possible,,, would be bearish for spx, bullish for vxx

929
Oil is up, still swing long from new entry near close yest near low of day, trgt yest hi and prev days hi to start,,, silver is down this am, im still short silver

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

403
TLT was only able to hit its first trgt, not its 2nd, so took off TLT as posted,,, it may want to pullback deeper now, on sidelines for now, out of TLT 8994 from 8896 cost,, still no entry to short TLT yet, or TBT long yet, to me

359
IBM selling nicely into the close here :)

351
Long uso oil 3542 swing, half size

343
shorting swing NWSA 17.06

333
taking 8984 profits here TLT on 75% of shares,, 8986 last
took profit tlt

330
mental stop .81 on tlt in case of move down instead of up

328
9047 tlt lim sell, for now

327
Still have the TLT limit orders in place to lock profits if hit,,,will prob at least take off half of TLT shares today even if trgt not hit, to lock partial lower profit

302
VXX 3min is bullish, may put selling pressure on es spx

159
ES  "should have" shuffled sideways longer at 1327 on 3min chart,, ES may be in trouble here

118
tlt 8944 long here could work

111
wow look at DBA 60min chart

103
(or bull ascending triangle)

102
(the moving avg equiv of bull flag)

101
on 60min chart, TLT has a flat 5 Moving Avg and rising 15Moving average, often results in upside break higher

1256
euro is making the expected move up,,,charts suggest that after this one finishes it should make a lower daily low, in coming hours days,,,move up not complete yet

1252
NFLX has a bearish harami on daily candles atm,,,needs confirmation in subsequent days with a close below the daily low

1248
the inv HS that has developed today just so happens to measure closely to yesterdays upside trgt #2 TLT,,, 9047

1247
15min TLT has bull inv HS, 60min forming bull cup handle, confirmed in stoch and rsi

1221
to me, other indicators, trendlines, macd rsi price etc are more useful than wave counts

1220
euro could be in wave 3 down still here, or could be in wave 4 up, unclear,,,,as mentioned yest in currencies the 5th wave is often larger than #3 wave,,, wave 2 was up not sideways, so alternation could suggest w4 sideways not up,,,in any event chart suggest lower low after this 60min chart up move finishes

1210
Euro 60min chart small bounce has had 2 support line utl line redraws,, suggesting one more bounce in euro 60min and then on to lower lows, in coming hours days,, generally a break of the third trendline support redraw signifies an end to the move up and a trend reversal

1201
DBA agriculture etf continues sideways daily,,, thinking a correction lower coming, then higher

1149
1291 es swing trgt lower,same as b4,, last 1325

946
TLT has spent last 6 hours in bull consolodation,,,watching to see if support continues to hold the higher low, and a break higher toward target #2,,,hit target #1 yest with a 2 cent overshoot

938
still have vxx lim sell 2846 too

937
TLT lim sell 9047 for now from 8896 buy,,last 8963

933
VXX daily is in a bull falling wedge,,,when it breaks higher out of it, likely spx qqqq selling pressure will cause lower spx,, vxx still in the wedge tho getting tight


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

415
shorting the euro in lieu of shorting ES has been much easier/productive,,,even tho currencies are manip too,,,atl least they r moving in dicernible patterns, for now

406
hmm es selling a bit here ah

401
ES volume today is pathetic

343
if lim sell order not filled, i will hold the TLT overnight. sideways is likely but upside potential seems more than downside risk, esp if TLT gets over 9040 (could gap over it too)

310
next day feb 17 is initial claims

309
ES  SPX  may drift higher until wed 2pm fomc

229
i'm removing the order to add euro shorts via euo...never was filled, its too late in day now,,will do manually

214
9037 is actual next trgt but have the lim order set below it,,,thinking may be signif resist at 9037, unsure

213
the high of day 8892 was 2 cents over the 8890 trgt 1 from yest

212
TLT moving back up to test its HOD, and on 2 second trgt where hopefully the limit order to sell will get filled, at 9023 from 88.96 on 75% of shares

148
and agriculture,,, MOO,,, DBA,,, grains corn etc

148
but imo,,,better opps long n short exist in metails oil gold silver and individ top 100 stocks

147
es 1327 support may stall if gets there, bounce ,,,then may have shortable bounce, depends on chart at the time

146
i still see lower trgts under 163 later

145
161.25 next lower ibm trgt on break of 16300

118
also daily macd hist on ibm has crossed below 0

117
ibm 60min continues to have bearish HS, suggests "hold existing shorts"

1259
i still have the euro short order open, unfilled, using euo 19.63 lim

1202
TLT starting to form a bear rising wedge in 60min, but if so then is more upside first before it reverses lower as its in initial stages

1045
i set the tlt sale price under the 9039 trgt at 9023 because i think that 9039 is going to rep strong resist,,, it was the breakdown # to tlt prior low,,,,holding 25% of shares with stop at 88.96 breakeven (or near there) in case it just breaks higher makes sense

1040
i will lim sell TLT 9023 if able, lowered lim order again, and will try to buy back lower if able later

1029
euo may not make 1963, there is support around 1978ish, last 1981, at supp now, watching reaction, trying for a break lower to next supp level if able

1028
i will lim buy EUO in order to short euro, at 19.63, if able, to buy back shares sold at 19.90

1020
Silver SLV /si is higher today,,,waiting for opp to add more shorts to it,,, may want to test SI 31.28, last 30.53,,, watching for entry to add more shorts

1017
atm, tlt charts suggest sideways then higher,,,may pb some b4 higher,,,watching to see if pattern plays,

for 9037 next trgt

1016
TLT is now at 8987, i consider the .90 trgt hit here, close enough, watching reaction

1009
NFLX gapped up today,,,,may be an exhaustion gap,,,will watch in coming hours days to see if reverses,,poss island top also

1008
i want to see if TLT can break 8990 resist since its major resist,,,if it breaks higher it could surge higher to next targets,,,will watch reaction if it gets to 8990,, then see if makes sense to sell there or wait for higher

949
COST is selling hard this morn despite up in ES spx,,,its not participating,,,good for cost shorts, still swing short,,, cost may form a bearish harami/near engulfing daily candle pattern today that would need confirmation in susbsequent days

947
TLT ,,,changing lim order to sell 9073 if it hits that today

943
TLT is near resist 8869 now,,, so 8869 is a trgt, then 9030

941
TLT lim sell 9273 from 88.96 entry if able, last 8950,,, will prob sell before 9273 but thats trgt for now,,, will likely sell lower and re-eval for rentry later,

919
i will lim sell vxx from friday at 28.47 if able

913 am
EUO pre-market is up, taking profits here 19.90 on partial shares makes sense

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

403
TLT gapped up today and actually closed up green, near high of day but also at resist from 2 days ago

314
will also hold most euro shorts, 2.6% roi on them atm, may take a few off

313
vxx scalp is red atm
...........................................................................

313
will hold silver shorts longer overnite,,still see lower,,,may take 25% of shares off to lock profit on those ones

312
2846 lim sell vxx scalp if able makes sense

256
5 methods is somewhat reliable if confirmed,,,because its a 5 candle pattern it "looks like" the downtrend is starting to reverse cuz of 3 up candles,,,but then boom back down,,,traps

255
poss bearish 5 methods continuation lower pattern, in EURO 60min, forming, not finished or confirmed,,

254
euro could go higher as there is another R level above this one,, last time it did not make the 2nd level

253
EURO is at intraday resist here,watching reaction, may turn down

145
adding 2nd piece of vxx scalp 2822 here could work, 2820 last

143
lim order to sell half vxx 28.74 makes sense,

140
cancelled zsl,,,never got a fill, going with existing SLV position, may add more later

114
i'll do ZSL lim buy 9.87 (2x silver bear) in add to existing SLV short from higher

1240
lim sell half of vxx scalp 29.21 if able makes sense for vxx scalp from 2847 this morn

1221227
swing,,160 trgt for ibm lower, then gap fill


IBM 60min bearish

1222
watching es reaction at 1320 newly est support if it tests there

1219
SLV silver moving lower,, 2900,, 2879,,, targets

then 2803 next trgt,,,trying for min 2803ish on the swing short if poss (from 2961 short entry)





1213
at *1322 es

1213
sell signal on ES just flashed at 1222,,,may trigger selling in 3-70 minutes, depends,,often it will bnc higher first but not always



1209
look at 15 n 60min euro chart vs es, bearish for spx

1202
lower euro may help the silver shorts also

1200
for currencies, sometimes wave 5 is bigger than w3

1200
euro "might" be in wave 3 down now

1159
if euro breaks support then next trgt is approx near the lower daily boll band

1151
euro falling but has not yet broken prior low

1149
and 60min rsi has higher lows

1148
15min TLT stoch 14,3,3 has a Bull W formation with a bull diverg on the dbl bottom of the W

1126
yea just a thought,,needs confirm,,, but TLT is up,,, Dollar is holding near support n could break higher,, euro resist holding and could make a lower low...vix did not make lower low daily,, all suggests toppiness

1113
idk if we get it, but if ES closes below yest low, we will have a bear key reversal day, at the top of a move in ES daily

1107
ES makes new highs,,,
 IBM  COST   GILD far behind, no new daily highs,
CAT surging higher, entered short too early but still see lower CAT

1106
silver getting volatile here,,,big red candle 3min SLV

1047
lower euro could put selling pressure on es spx qqqq

1045
euro 15min: bear haramin, needs a close under its 15min low to confirm,, euro 60min remains in downtrend even with 15min rally, dueling charts, bias is lower euro

1044
IBM is marginally participating in rally but the bear 60min HS remain intact for ibm

1043
daily desc triangle bearish in GILD

1042
GILD Gilead Science just keeps drifting lower, not participating with spx rally,, GILD is one of the Top 33 Nasdaq stocks

1013
1310 retest trgt,,,1310 was yest trgt that got hit overnite, think retest

1009
es short 1318.25 could work here

1008
scalp vxx 2847 could work here

954
idea only, i'm already short at higher level from yesta

954
euro futures short could work here, scalp, or euo etf 1968

949
still see lower for swing shorts in cat cost gild ibm nflx slv dba,,holding all for now, may exit slv soon

946
still short euro swing via euo at 2.85% roi,,,may take profits soon on 50-75% of it,, last euro short few days back was similar roi, double dip 2nd entry

945
TLT has a huge gap up this morn, still long there for now

942 am
CAT just hit 101.24, slightly over the 101.20 trgt to short from yest,,,should've waited to short up here instead of 100.60,,watching reaction

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Simple chart warns again of SPX decline to 1244/ 1232/ 1228

The simple chart below is warning of a SPX decline pullback correction

Notice how far that price is away from the 20 period weekly moving average.  A correction down to move to 1244/ 1232/ 1228 is the target.

Double click the chart to see it full size.

This is similar to the chart posted at

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2011/02/weekly-spx-is-warning-of-declines.html



 * ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

352
KO was supposed to be swing but i dont like look of ES

351
stopped out of KO 6348 from 6309 entry this morning, small profit

349
stop 6348

347
KO stop 6346

334
b4 the close,,i'm going to close the KO short,,,i'll look for other long hedges next week

330
stop .46 on vxx scalp remaining shares

321
if nflx closes near here, has a daily bear shoot star,,that needs confirm with a daily close in coming days, under todays low

319
IBM 60min chart has bear HS,,good for existing swing shorts

306
out of part of vxx scalp .73,,, still see the higher trgts poss but makes sense to lock something,,

302
typo---i shorted cat 100.60 not 101.60,,,was trying for 101.20 hence the typo

300
stop .73 on 25-50% of vxx scalp makes sense

252
close enough on CAT here, shorted 101.60

239
ES sell signal just flashede 1318

235
VXX buy siganl again,,watching reaction,,, last signal took it to within a few cents of higher trgt

227
i'm trying to short a marginal new high, if able, on a break over 100.80ish for 101.20 spike

225
i know i waited a long time on CAT short, but its finally showing a nice bear diverg on the 60min chart, and at same time close to resist, so looking to add short swing finally

223
looking for euro to test low of day, and can make a lower lo

220
CAT now at 100.55,,may short lower but waiting to see if wants a little higher first

211
euro moving down on 3min as es moves up,,,euro may win and press es lower, tho as mentioned b4 that relationship has been on-again / off-again :)

203
6330 last KO coca cola

202
changing stop on KO long to 6318 over the 6309 entry,,,not to take profit but to exit if it breaks .20ish,, can always reenter

157
euro moving lower here,,,,

143
limit orders often needed on vxx as it moves to trgts fast and then may retreat b4 retesting, lim .92 could work here to take profits on 25-50% of shares,, if it stalls at .86 may make sense to sell there,,,still see higher trgts later

136
15min macd hist vxx ready to cross 0

128
3min vxx bull harami now confirmed also, watching for follow thru

127
vxx buy alert just triggered, 2863, may take it to first trgt, signal is strong enough if follow thru comes

110
2892 lim sell 25%--half of vxx could work, trade idea, from 2850

100
trgts in comoing hour

1259
to 1313 trgt, stall, then 1310.50,

1258
1316 es break lower has time trgt of 109pm, at curr velocity

1249
maybe 1310 down, then 1314 up, then under 1310,,,example only not exact trgts, quck glance roadmap

1248
ES 15min has several bear shoot star candles but they need a confirm with a 15min close below the 15min low,,, if so then the pattern usually will go down, then bounce to a lower hi, then a new low (not all today)

1239
ES 3min chart sideways here with one more bounce is one poss roadmap with this chart pattern,,,still see lower ES,,,may go down here without up, watching

1236
EUO is now at support and may pivot to upside, to test daily high and make a higher hi

1235
EURO suggests it may move back down here soon today,,,could put sell press on ES tho it has been delayed and inconsistent relationship ,,, higher us dollar

1224
the es 15min and 60min charts when combined indicate whipsaw to me, with downside risk greatest,,, dueling charts

1217
expecting higher TLT today, maybe one more pullback first intraday,,,perhaps not, b4 higher, last tlt 8900

1210
for trading idea vxx scalp, makes sense to have a lim order to sell vxx 29.43 if able, may need to sell lower later depending on how it moves, from 2850 entry

1202
silver SLV short could work here 2950,,i'm already in from 2961 yest

1156
vxx first scalp trgt 2886 last 2868 from 2850 entry idea, higher trgts after stall there

1153
i will 6470 lim sell KO if able from 6309 entry

1139
1319 es short, trading idea, could work

1137
in vxx 28.53 for scalop

1130
cancelling TLT addition,,,running with existing pos for now,may buy more later, never got a fill on it

1118
ZB and ZN are futures alternatives similar to but not equal to TLT

1117
i'll lim buy TLT 88.60, last 8872, if filled,,,alt is to short 2x TBT or use a 3x

1049
ES carving out intraday topping pattern that may present a day scalp short opp later today, no entry yet,,,choppy right now,,,waiting for some smaller candles, or entries at extremes

1020
KO options calls could work here for a retest of 6475 / 6550

1019
going LONG in KO 6309, swing

1002
ES swing trgt #2 lower is 1282, intersect of uptrend supp line daily and horiz supp

955
lim cover silver shorts slv 28.47 if able, last 2917, may not come today

that would give 3.86% roi on 1x slv, or 7.72% profit on 2x etf

928
tho the goal is not to pick the top or bottom, just participate in the move

927
Unfortunately i only have a half size position on Euro short swing entered yest, because resist 1 held but i was looking for poss move higher to R2

But this is an example of how scaling in can work,,, I cannot add at a better price now, but at least participate in the move with a half size,, we just never know the real top or bottom in advance tho sometimes we catch it


851am
Newly entered EUO from yest is up 2% this morning as the euro is down nicely, SLV is also down this morn for a 1.5% roi on silver atm,, VXX is up 1.6% as the ES is 7.75 points lower, IBM GILD are both down premarket, holding those shorts still


.............................................................
TLT is lower by 0.4%, still long TLT for now

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Real Estate Relationship to Treasury Bonds TLT

REK is the 1x BEAR (short) for Real Estate
TLT is long treasury bonds

The chart shows that when TLT goes lower, REK also goes lower (meaning that real estate goes higher, since REK is the inverse or bear short for real estate).

Double click on chart to see it full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

diverse positions to manage risk in addition to stops

i believe in addition to setting stops and exiting losing positions, another way to manage risk is to have diverse holdings

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

WEDN

341
if GILD closes around here, has a nice bear engulf candle daily



331
1915 is close enough,,,adding euo, 50% size position,swing,, if it moves lower tomorrow i might add

321
euo 19.12, half position, i will buy if able, stop under 18.69, for swing


309
euo 18.96 lim buy, below 1906 trgt buy area, for now, stop under 18.69, for swing

254
alt to continued higher on TLT is move lower to 8890ish from 8960 last but not shortable imo,

253
lots of resis here now intraday on tlt,,, boll band,,,prior day hi,,,still see higher tlt but makes sense to tighten stop

250
as expected in posts below, silver bounced earlier to a lower hi, and is now back near low of day,,still see lower for swing silver

245
89.36 stop TLT

237
TLT is close to the 8950 trgt now,,,close enough to consider achieved imo,,, still see higher but could stall now



211
TLT trgts: 8950, 8995,,,if 8995 breaks then 9040

201
lim order to sell part of VXX at 29.63,,,may sell at lower price today if that trgt not hit

145
adding vxx 2852 here, stop 27.88

136
GILD is at short swing trgt #1, still see lower,,, 1.4% roi at that target

133
ES is at 3min resist here 1318.50

121
*well euo hit 1909 vs 1906 trgt

120
Euro hit its resist trgt, watching reactions now,,, EUO also hit trgt posted this morn, well hit 1901 vs 1906 trgt

114
tlt if it holds around here on 60min, will have a bull rsi failure swing

111
tlt sideways then 8950 is one poss pattern

110
TLT its at 60min resist now

108
if tlt closes over yest hit, then it will be a bullish key rev day with a lower low and close over prior days high, after a big move down on daily
102
there it is, tlt hit 8909 trgt,,,took profit on those shares

1254
i will lim sell part of tlt 89.09 if ab;le (changed from .13)

1219
silver intraday is likely to move sideways / drift lower,,,a bounce is epxected later but charts suggest staying short thru the first bounce up for lower trgts later

1209
euro continues sideways on 60min chart

1202
1312 es other supp

1200
1316 es algo resist on es held so far,,, could break the 1314 supp


1147
silver shorts doing well,,,missed the opp for long on slv,,was watching but waited to long and limiit orders never filled on way up

1140
 ES 1275 horiz support "just so happens" to intersect closely or exactly to the ES daily uptrend support line, so a move to down there and then stall bounce there would make sense in coming days

1136
es is at algo resist now but its only on 3min, at 1316

1130
are they selling ES here only to buy bonds later today? watching

1125
yes euro held that resist,,,can still backtest bak up,,,getting the "sideways" for now in euro,,, theres still one more higher R on euro

1122
silver looks to be pulling back,,, lower expected

1110
GILD is approaching its first lower trgt now, down 1%ish

1059
i CANCELLED the limit order to short euro, will do manually later, tho i have same trgt

TLT can also be used as scalp in add to swing

1053
TLT 88.44 adding here to swing

1044
GILD is moving down on the es rally, ibm not moving up either, both r down,, nflx moving up with es

1041
TLT 60min is building a bullish diverg price:rsi

1030
euro did not hit its "short target" yet but also euro is at a resist right now,,,could go sideways rite here

1023
TLT 15min is poss building a bullish cup handle,, all these patterns are just to watch atm, they all need confirmations

1022
ES has poss W bulll dbl bot 15min with approx 1326 trgt,,,charts suggest it is more likely to fail atm, but watching,,,

1015
*vxx has bull INVERSE HS ,,,bullish for vxx, bearish for spx

1015
vxx 133t inv HS trgt is approx 29.25, last 2863

1013
es 1319 last

1013
VXX 133tick bull head shoulders may put selling pressure on spx

1001
lim order to sell tlt lim 90.43, last 88.81

948
silver slv may pb to 28.40, last 29.61, swing trgt


937am
i have limit order for 2x euo long 19.06  as way to short euro, last 19.26,,,is near 19.22 supp testing it now

911am
good morn


1056 pm
IBM daily charts reveal that IBM often pulls back / declines in the days following its dividend payments. They paid a dividned today,  will be watching to see if IBM declines tomorrow Wed or soon.

1022 pm TUES
silver SI remains down lower 0.5% since close


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday's ramblings

457
i'm watching 1.3756 for euro re-entry short again poss,,,had order to short today if it got there but didnt,,,will eval charts if it does

if euro moves sideways instead,,,may still find a short near present price,,,will let it chop a littl

DX 4 hour chart from jan 19 shows nice bull diverg which resulted in dolllar higher bounce, but usually it will retest lower or go sideways




419
at 6:00 AM-ish, OIL CL made a low of 85.88, which was NOT retested during the 930--400pm session... 86.36 was the low of 930--400pm

411
USO did well today, sold at 36.95 as posted below, high of day was 37.02, closed at 36.64,, will re-eval long/short opps in oil tomorrow or coming days for re-entry

352
ZSL is bear 2x silver etfs but chose to just short slv 1x instead

352
I shorted silver SLV 29.61

150
VIX daily has a bullish for vix rising MACD line, almost about to cross over 0, with higher lows, bull diverg vs price since dec 22,,,bullish for vix, BEARISH for spx for swings

147
DRV 1554 looks interesting here, tho i'm not taking a postion,,,have enough shorts for now

138
i will buy back uso sold at 36.95 at limit buy uso 3607 if filled, last 3646

116
COST is a swing

116pm
shorting COST 74.62

1217
Shorted GILD 38.79, swing

1206
I have a limit order to sell TLT 90.43, may sell at 8980/8990 trgt if stalls to long there instead

1144
i have lim order to  buy EUO 19.11 if able, last 1926

1143
EUO may want 1909/ 1911

1142
EUO (etf to short euro) 19.27 looks "almost ready" for swing,,,waiting to buy euo for now but getting close

1138
filled on uso sale, profits locked, will look to reenter later.

1122
if able i will lim sell uso 36.95

1111
if able i will lim sell uso 37.23

1017
uso daytrades would hold longer

1016
USO is now near target #2,,,scalpers would watch carefully and take profits near here, 3662 vs 3633 entry

1003
just hit 3649 trgt

1000
scalp trgts to start uso 3649, 3665

958
can also be used as scalp

957
trade idea: swing add more uso 36.33

944
4 minutes later, 1314 trgt hit,,,,1310/11,,,1306 simple horiz trgts down in ES, hit 1214 and held, bnc to 1315.50 then lower is one poss pattern, not trading it

940
*1314

939
ES charts continue to suggest lower IF it can break the 1214 support,,,charts suggest it will in comoing hours

937
TLT has broken over its 60min downtrend resist line, expecting it to hit higher swing targets, then may be able to reverse short tlt

913
CORN zc is down 0.82%, good for shorts or dba puts existing swing

911
tomorror,,,1030am is crude inv oil report

908
OIL cl is volatile this morn, having plunged to 85.88 and now bounced upt to 86.56 last,, think it will go higher for swing position

902
TDA has an updated for ThinkOrSwim,,, if it doesn't crash or lock up today i'll be in shock, since almost everytime they upgrade it causes awful performance issues, making it unusable for hours at a time

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday ramblings

326
or from 3812 uso

324
..........................................
uso trade idea is red 3770 vs 3688,,,still is valid swing to hold over imo

323
trade idea could take 20 cents-ish profit here,on part of vxx

322
es 131650,,,131675 make sense as stops for shorts

321
15min es chart says lower or sideways ES,,,BUT its too late in day to be v accurate now

318
ES just hit the 1314 target,,,watching reactino here now,,, 1314 impt intraday supp imo

308
NFLX sswing pattern should allow for exit of the shorts to take profit, then re-short again, nflx should bounce, then the next move down should be bigger,,,,in coming days weeks,, position trades could hold a piece of the shorts thru the whipsaw

300
would take 1315.25 to lock small profit, 2-3 points on es

256
getting near 1314 trgt,,,, trade idea  would save some shorts and cover some at 1324.25/1324 lim if able

240
if 1314 is hit, it could bounce v quickly up 2 points on first try 1314

238
1314.25 lim cover es makes sense on at least half of es short

232
es mental stop 1317.50 for 1318 short trade idea,,,should go lower or sideways here else risking higher reentry,,will watch reaction 131750 if it gets there

226
uso bull falling wedge 60min getting tighter, CL oil supp 8725 last 8756

206
tlt moving up but 8938 may stall it b4 the higher trgts,,,, 8938ish is 60min dtl resist

153
TLT trying to break higher now,,,

148
poss bull inv head shoulders, uso daily, incomplete and uncomfirmed

146
UCO Mar 19 2011 12.0 Calls at .50/.55 trade idea

143
uso or uco calls could work here, uso 3688 last

139
es 1314 scalp trgt, prob stall there,,,,1314/1314.25

136
1318 es short could work here, or vxx 2853

122
es may want 1324,,,watching for poss siwng short entries 1319--1324, no setup yet

107
and sep 24,,,aug 22

105
atm, uso dail has higher lows since May 26

104pm
USO 15min now in wave 5 down of its coreection,,,expecting higher soon in oil,, a bull diverg is also forming in 15min

1218
tlt trgt 8950, 8980
tlt trgt 8950, 8980 to start, then see reaction there for further long or reverse short



1217
TLT is basing on 15 n 60min, may break higher in coming hours days

1215
scalps. es never hit 1318.75 for short trade idea,,,cancelling that idea,,,will see what it does on next 3min bnc

1211
es may bounce, shorting next bounce could work, 3min chartt,, may take 6--63 minutes to bounce

1202
NFLX here 220.36 short looks good, still in from 219.75

1201
cat 60 min says scale in shorts could work here, but may want higher, i'll let it chop around a little longer

1200
CAT hit 100.00 trgt and almost reached the 101.00 add shorts trgt,, may want 101.50

1159
Trading idea:  ES short 1318.75 could work, uso long 3712 for 3730/3740/3767 trgts scalps

1018
CAT just hit its 100.00 trgt,,,watching for 101.00ish next... short 100/101 might work

947 am
Trading on and off throughout the day.  Fewer postings.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures

347
1310 es i'll add short via spxu,,,if not will add b4 close, for swing

341
8918 tlt lim sell some

328
i will 8930 TLT lim sell some

256
lim sell some tlt 8973 if able

242
there's another gap intraday, es, unless i have bad data from provider

241
see the gap down intraday in 3min charrt ES? low vol nonsense,, gap downs like this are kind of rare in ES in middle of day, esp at 2:41pm,,,warns of poss liquidity problems, bearish

231
uso,. ,,,3740,,,going long swing, buy #1 of poss 4

this is still an "early" entry for me, but chart looks good for starting long here

225
remvonig stop on tlt, will hold overnite if no movement today

214
notice ES daily bearish broadening formation

141
Limit short CAT 100.80 if filled, prob no fill today but will take it on a surge, last 99.29,, lim short order is just below the 101.00 stretch target

129
Mondays are often bullish it's true, but these charts are suggesting to me a warning of a possible gap DOWN on monday,, impossible to tell but risk is higher than normal, highest its been in months, imo

117
instead of puts options, i elected to directly short the underlying, but a small position to limit risk

116
last 3 candles of the 60min candle pattern on nflx shows tiredness, why i took an early entry short here,,,tho could trickle higher

108
219.80,,, finally shorting NFLX,,but this is a starter, early position,,,may go higher

102
they might be able to push this mkt higher but retail did not step in this morn to buy,,, mkt looks stretched,, when retail stops buying the mkt generally falls, as they are generally the last to buy, near the top,,from swing perspective not scalps

100
once again, zzzzzzzzzzzz,,, no participation,,just like yest

1204
stop .66 on tlt scalp ,,changed a lil from .70

1149
2963 limit buy would be better, 2966 last

1148
2969 re-entyr to vxx could work here for another scalp, i'm not ree-entering seince already have some left

1131
TLT 8900 here stop 8870 could work

1107
still have a "hold shorts all day" daytrade es, no exit signal yet for the all day multihour hold

1105
es 129825,,,close ebough for 129800 trgt, is considered hit,,,still see lower but stall poss

1103
next vxx trgt 3042

1056
trading idea on es, also hit its scalp trgt for 4 points profit

1055
vxx just hit 2996, trgt #1,,, if u had a lim order would have picked up 1.05%ish on that piece

1047
es scalps from 1304.25 can take 4 points profit 1300.25 limit if its hit, dayt would hold half longer and take half off

1043
have a lim order to sell half vxx 30.97 if able

1034
...............................................
yea my tlt from yest is down red about 1%ish rite now,,,still holding for last bounce,,,then will look at tlt short

1026
adding piece 2 here for vxx daytrade 2956

1023
NFLX may see 232, dont think will make it, but one can see NFLX 218-204 = 14,,, 218+14 = 232,,, still like short but it did make a higher daily high over 218

1016
EURO just hit lower trgt from yest, next trgt same, 1.3465

1014
1300, then 1298/1298.50 first trgt ES

959
nflx could still break over 218

958
i like nflx short also, but am still waiting, watching last 4 days,,,needs another few hours of work for me, or an extreme move higher,, waiting on 60min since it will be a swing

954
29.96 first trgt vxx daytrade or 0.71%

950
2975 scalp vxx,,, holding swing vxx for higher, last 2973

942
for day, i have a short the bounces setup, fwiw, no entry yet

925 am
good morning

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which  securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

VXX Chart bullish

Daily Ramblings are below this post.

Chart intended for swing holds.

Notes to Numbers on Chart
1.  Bullish divergence in VXX as vxx makes a lower low but rsi and macd make higher lows.
2. Confirmation: VXX, MACD, and RSI all make higher lows.

Even a move to 29.00 would not necesarrily negate the structure, just more fully define it.

Click the chart to see it full size.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings

409
SPY wicks pointing down AH 129.67

406
IBM is near breakeven now, at 00.12% paper loss, i remain short ibm

359
there are green block trades going off on vxx now, bullish for vxx in coming days

353
ES made higher daily highs ,, vix never made lower lows, bearish for spx

342
wow sooooooo slow for 342 pm,,,no buyers or sellers, disinterest

339
ES just hit 1305.50 trgt from hour ago

322
lim sell 33% of vxx 3073 if able

318
that was buy 3 of poss 4 in vxx,,, avg cost still up there at 30.30, last 29.91

316
cancelling short more es, spxu, at es 1305.50,,using vxx instead

315
added more vxx here, avg cost 30.30

257
i'll add swing short spx if able, es 1305.50 lim, via spxu

122
DBA moving lower nicely, still swing short there

114
the TLT long is very similar to the EUO trade (short euro) where i entered EUO long 18.88 and exited 19.34,,, EUO Jan low (euro hi) was 18.83, a few cents from 18.88 posted entry

looking to reenter EUO again later

105
so tlt in downtrend atm and i am trading counter-trend long

104
TLT 60min broke its first DTL, causing a re-draw in chart,,,now testing 2nd DTL resist,,, usually it will pb and then break #2 to cause redraw #3,,, if #3 breaks higher then it can be considered a trend change in 60min from down to up

101
60min TLT is inside this bull falling wedge, at resisist moving sideways,,,it may break it higher,,,tho theres still room on downside support in wedge

1248
VXX Mar 19 2011 29.0 Call at 3.40/3.50,,,aggressive trade idea

1247
..........................................................................
IBM position is RED now, but
IBM is only red 0.41% right now,,v small red for a swing

1242
a SMALLER than normal position on vxx calls could work here, trading idea only, i'm long the underlying

1211
doubled my position in vxx, same entry price as 2 days ago, 3036, in order to allow some scalping in addition to swing,, still vxx position is much smaller than IBM TLT, dollarwise, due to very volatile nature of vxx

1207
if i didnt have vxx already i would buy here,,,the prev .59 buy trade is still valid, last .31

1156
just got stopped out of euo (euro short), profits taken, will look to re-enter later

1154
1299 es short could work here

1116
EUO profit now 2.87%,,raising stop to 19.34

1051
3059 vxx scalp swing could work here, i'm already in from 3035 few days ago

1050
ES hit 1297 trgt, and held down as expected on first test,,,still watching close here

1045
ES appproaching 1297 bounce trgt ,,,1296 last,,watching reaction

1039
after 1.356 trgt first

1038
1.347 Euro trgt lower, last 1.362

1025
TBT 60min has a bearish stoch dbl top, plus a bear diverg

1015
TLT up nicely here but approaching wedge resist,,may stall

1014
wow vxx :D,,

1010
Even the mighty DBA agriculture is starting to crack (irrelev to spx)

1009
if bounce < 1297, bearish es,,, think first 1297 test will hold it down

1008
1290 es trgt first

1002
19.57 EUO next trgt, last 1940

957
15min IBM has small coil, sym tri

952
EUO swing pos is at 2.5% roi now, to protect profits, setting stop at 19.21, last 19.34

947
TLT long, tbt short could work here, tlt 9005, same entry as yest

921
Euro is down this am, causing a nice gap higher in the euro short EUO position

917am
good morning

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or  currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Weekly SPX is warning of declines, pattern valid since May 2009

fwiw, on SPY weekly charts, every stochastic 14,3,3 double top since May 2009 has resulted in a pullback to the 15 or 20 period weekly moving averages,,, a stoch dbl top is now being carved out in SPY and already has the bearish cross on it, with SPY 20 MA at 122.43,,, 15MA = 124.44,, 50 MA = 116.12

Double click the chart to see it full size

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

427
fwiw, on SPY weekly charts, every stochastic 14,3,3 double top since May 2009 has resulted in a pullback to the 15 or 20 period weekly moving averages,,, a stoch dbl top is now being carved out in SPY and already has the bearish cross on it, with SPY 20 MA at 122.43,,, 15MA = 124.44,, 50 MA = 116.12

404
CORN /ZC has a shooting star,,,still short DBA from yest

359
TLT scalps could take 0.8% profit,,,i'm holding most of mine as swing, with a lil profit taking here,,, TLT or tbt

348
es low vol today, spin top, normal after yest and prior 3 days

345
oil overnight is too tricky here for me,,,staying out both long and short

335
scalpers on tbt short might get 1-2% profit b4 close,,,
i will def hold at least some of thie long tlt short tbt overnight swing

329
imo,,,i still see the daily es spx moving sideways another 5 sessions,,,,approx 1260--1306 ES

319
TLT calls, or tbt puts, could work here

252
TLT 60min in a bull fallinig wedge,,,bought here at wedge support, macd MmM bull pattern,bull diverg 15min rsi, 10min chart testing Parab SAR resist

249
waiting on a tbt swing position,,,to hold multi weeks months, no entries yet

247
i still see higher tbt but think TLT has a bounce in it

246
long TLT 9003 here, scalp swing,,,or can short 2x TBT

213
on 25% of USO left now,,,may re-enter, lkater

207
mental stop 3826 uso for half of remaing half,,,i always keep 25% at breakeven stop, lower

205
uso is v close to resist now,,,watching careful here for stall or break higher or move lower, scalp R, 3835 last, near its posted trgt

202
about 1% prof in uso, 2%ish on  uco 2x

202
taking off half the uso here 3826 to guar profits, hold other half


201
uso emerg stop hard at 38.12 in case of sudden down move

157
USO daily has the adam in adam/eve bull pattern,, so whipsaw and chop in oil would be normal in coming days, if eve forms

151
uso 60min has bull flag, which i'm trading inside

134
USO SCO just hit 3822 scalp trgt, 0.95% / 1.8% profit,,,,

125
3822   3837 USO scalp trgts,,,will watch reaction at .22 to see if taking it off there of holding longer, last .14,, tricky in oil cuz of us dollar bullish basing

107
IBM puts are starting to look like they could work around here,,maybe let it go higher, or enter on break of support

1255
uso may want 3725 or lower for swings, options,,,just a scalp for now, may hold as initial swing entry if it doesnt go anywhere,,,

1245
3820 scalp trgtr uso

1244
going long USO here 3793 , small starter position,,,for scalp swing,,,not spot for options entry imo,, UCO is the 2x long oil alternative

1232
still short euro via EUO from yest, 0.80% roi atm,,,ibm 0.14%, spxu --1.26% red, vxx 0.25%, dba short still,,holding all for now

1224
USO UCO oil are starting to form long swing patterns, no entry yet, may take another few hours , unknown,,60min needs to pb more imo b4 entry

1209
cancelling TZA scalp order, never filled

1207
DBA small candle daily but starting to fill small gap,,,may be cracking,,,still short dba from yest, agric swing

1201
1440 last

1200
1434 tza lim if filled

1158
tza 1440 almost ready, no entry yet

1154
WOW silver just took a hit lower, 3min, no pos there

1153
my tza trgt to buy yest was 1417, it hit 1420 near that trgt but didnt entr,,,wanted to see sideways first

1152
lim buy tza 1422, last 1439,, for scalp,,, will prob pay higher but order is there for now,,, this is a small position for dinner money only,,, may need to try a few times or take losses

1146
using tza instead of spxu for scalp since it looks like tza has about twice the daily range

1142
TZA 60min has bull harami on it, but unconfirmed, so i am trying to trade the pullback b4 the confirm with expect of confirm later, based on 3min charts, also watching macd rsi

1137
looking for entry in TZA for scalp/ swing combo,,,if it hits day trgt i'll sell else keep as swing,,,no entries yet

1110
1298 es trgt , test low, no position just watching,,
..............................
well i have the spxu swing from yest currently red 1.3% but not from today,,,still see higher spxu, lower es  spx for swings

1103
prob wont get filled, but have an order to double my position DBA Mar 19 2011 32.0 Put,, for 5 cents lim, last  .15/.25

1049
CANCELLING order lim to add vxx 2953, will do manually, never filled, still have the starter position 3035 cost from yest

1042
caution: VXX is very wild and only for aggressive trades, or in small size positions to allow for wide stops, imo vxx should only be part of a mixed portfolio with other positions mixed in

1031
2953 vxx lim could work long, last 30.10

1013
yesterday i suggested today could be a spin top whipsaw day, thus far we have it on the daily candle in ES,,, breaks of support could cause a bigger candle but for now we have chop within a small candle spin top / doji

1011
still waiting for SLV long opp to present, none found yet, missed yesterdays nice pop up,,, still see a pb comoing in slv,,,watching to see if "go long" swing slv develops b4 "go short swing"

1010
IBM at 60min support here, could bounce or sideways, but real trgt 1 is 162.15 lower, last 16287 from 16325 short entry,,, other swing target IBM is to fill the gap 15300ish  151.52ish

1000
IBM is not pariticpating in the rally on spx 3min chart, ibm 3min down

913
VXX is up nicely pre-market, IBM is down (good for shorts), euro is down (good for shorts),

........... Corn is higher (but staying short tho red right now)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".