Wedn thoughts

imo,[16:40:54] some of that money in treasuries is from GS not necessarily smart money, and will be used to move the spx artifically higher
[16:42:35] all that TLT parabolic move was not from retail,,,the smaller retail uses bank savings accounts cash, not treasuries

[16:35:23] 1315--1320 area is a prior market maker active area, staying over that suggests higher b4 signif lower

[16:34:06] if ES is over 1320 at 930am, and does not get under 1314 by 1030am, could go to 1327--1335 b4 signif pb

[15:58:27] TLT hit its 125ish trgt tho the exit was early, will try to reload on a bounce,short, 127.10 last
[15:58:35] *125.1


[15:55:17] theres a possible bull W forming on SPX daily charts, speculation only since early stage formation

[15:51:37] if ES is over 1312 at 4pm, higher than 1312 at 415, and overnite at some point, likely
347
15min bull flag broke ES TNA, now trying for the higher hi

341
giving gdx  nugt 1 to 3 days to see what it does, ideally it will continue to move lower but not aggressively so, if that pattern forms then may re-enter long swings


[14:48:55] still waiting/ trying for the 49ish trgt on remaining TNA, or 77.00ish IWM

[14:33:59] ES 3min put in the lower low, 15min chart now trying to break its bull flag, ES

[13:50:57] if TLT can claw back to 126.50, may be re-shortable,,,still waiting to add, no reentry yet


[13:33:35] but 2pm may bring some wildness, may be best to just wait

[13:32:42] one more low on ES 3min charts may setup scalps, for quick hands, not there yet
[13:32:54] would also setup bull diverg, scalp only since its 3min charts

[13:30:23] the 3min ES chart has a mini bull flag on it, trying to break it higher for new intraday highs, but the 2pm reports reaction likely rules today, last ES 1308

[12:47:09] taking off half of stx 2360 from 2216 entry yest makes sense,
[12:48:49] gain on that piece 6.4%ish, real trgt was 7.5% but stalling here, still see higher STX seagate so keeping half

1239
multiweek months trgt on GDX is about 18% higher, NUGT 35--50% higher depending on nugt decay

[12:38:58] the pb suggests DUST to go higher first, but i'm not trading the dust for now

[12:38:16] watching for re-entry into long GDX or NUGT, too soon now,waiting for the 15min and 60min chart pullbacks, may take hours or few days to form, should look like a bull flag if it forms as expected, on sidelines now

1236
5080 swing trgt on TNA after interim trgts are hit

1215
7650ish IWM, TNA 4800ish trgts approx

[12:13:38] out tlt
[12:14:19] 5495 took profit on all but 25% shares in TMV
[12:15:12] from 5054 entry yest

still see higher TMV, lower TLT , but will try to reenter later.

[12:04:23] TLT breaking lower a bit now, watching to see how much it can push

[12:03:36] bull diverg on TLT 15min chart are starting to form but not baked yet,,,planning to exit the TLT short if it can move lower and finish the diverg, then re-short higher later ,,,if able

[12:01:05] TLT chart suggests it mioght get one more decent move lower today, if so may exit the small port TLT shorts via TMV long

[11:52:16] STX seagate up another 3.75% today, is at interim trgt here, but also close to next trgt which is abnother 2%ish higher from here

[11:35:07] IWM SPX SPY are all on "hold longs thru any 15min chart pullbacks" for multihour multiday swingts, imo

[11:32:45] thought: remember that SPX could dribble higher on small candles to form a wedge, it often happens on this type of pattern,,,and frustrates early short entries,,,imo early to swing short here unless willing to endure stops,

1100
short term plan for TLT shorts / TMV long: take profits if TLT gets near 125 (may 30 support), and hold it for next 4 hours, eval after 4 hours, then prob next 8-12 trading hours. right now its on a 4-12 hour hold short regardless of price action, will re-eval in 4 hrs time unless a large move comes lower first

Mid-term: same trgts on TLT, up to 10% lower on TLT, 20-30% higher TMV

last TLT 127.03
1053
TNA is now at the 5% higher posted trgt yesterday, but still holding it longer in small port for now,


1000
in coming days, SPX may want to retest its low, but over 1288 spx is bullish, it is also poss that 1288-1295 will hold and 1262 will NOT be tested

938
es 1300 overnite high, 1300.50

937
TLT hit yest posted trgt of 127 but holding for now, to see what it does with 126.50ish, if that breaks than should accell more selling lower

934
TLT continuing to move nicely lower, lots of room on downside for TLT,,,higher tbt tmv
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