Thurs thoughts

[15:52:51] last minute pop on TLT makes sense, why raised stops on tbt
[15:50:04] until that changes i'll stay short TLT,,,long TMV

 [15:48:25] my reports say that smart money is beginning to unwind their long positions in treasuries, and that multiweek should see lower TLT prices ,,,BUT the market makers servicing the smart money are going to need to move the price around,,,if they are able the MM will push TLT higher first,,IF THEY CAN NOT get it higher, the drop in TLT will be faster
[15:48:52] nothing is 100% accurate, but that's the strong indication....these reports only indicate this type of unwinding a few times a year

[15:11:52] rasied TBT stop to 1594,
[15:12:16] indiciations that Market Makers might cover some treas shorts here, which would send TBT lower
[15:12:43] also MM have stopped selling them, so being proactive since this is a scalp
[15:12:53] no changes in TMV swing trgts, tbt is the scalp piece

[15:00:41] we r not likely to see much of a move rest of today in TLT,,,,if a move does come then it may foreshadow tomorrows action on TLT

[14:12:27] 3min GDX: if it hits 4156, then may move higher back towrd highs
[14:12:41] hit it while typing,,,watching reaction

[14:10:16] ZB treas rite on 3min support, if it breaks may get followthru,,,looks breakable lower
[13:50:45] barely survived stop, but not hit,,,tbt did 14.912 not .910,,,,stop didnt trigger from broker

[13:41:29] 1491 is hard stop, since its a scalp

[13:40:57] 1491 stop on TBT, if it hits there, less profit but prob going lower and can buy back,,,much looser stops on TLT and TMV swings
[13:38:32] there is signif support in the ZB treas futures 150.oo area,,,if that breaks could see a large move lower, tho bigger move not likely today, hence the swing TMV

[13:37:09] atm, TLT is suggesting a lower daily low,
[13:33:53] 1521 revised higheer TBT trgt,,scalp ,,,may lower ttrgt later if MM or price changes
[13:30:48] small lil TLT bounce but MM still modest selling it

[13:20:32] gdx may pop within 3minutes

[13:17:16] still modest selling on treasuries,,,prob cover near tbt trgts higher area
[13:15:04] 72% gdx long scalp signal rang
[13:15:20] should mnake new daily highs, nugt gdx

[13:14:07] also we are approaching 2pm, the 2-3pm hour can heat up treasury action

[13:11:41] normally i'd have taken more of TBT off, but mkt maker modest selling on treas is keeping me in longer on this scalp,for now

[13:08:52] 1517 revised trgtr higher

[13:05:56] 1503 and 1513 next tbt trgts, trying for the 1513 if able, on 25% more
[13:04:12] took some tbt off on last pop, scalp
[13:04:20] hodling tmv for much higher, swing

[12:59:49] modest market maker selling now in the treasuries, nothing aggressive but maybe starting, still watching for followthru

[12:58:55] 76% jump on TLT signal

[12:57:57] starting to move in TLT after the 72% rang, watching for followthru or not

[12:54:33] 72% tlt short, from 70%

[12:36:27] from May highs to July highs, TLT has a bear diverg on RSI, lower rsi,,,expecting decent move lower in TLT coming weeks
[12:26:55] TBT and TLT now at trgt 1,,,still see a break lower TLT
[12:21:33] watching next 4 candles on the ES and SPX 15min charts to see what it does
[12:22:04] bias higher on them while ES over 1370

[12:20:33] IF bears step in here, this area, and sell 10 points, then things would change

[12:19:55] still no swing short signal here, surprisingly, even tho spx is at resist,,,things are not lined up imo

[12:19:19] poss mini short squeeze coming intraday, spx

[12:10:25] 70% scalp short signal rang on TLT, watching if TBT and TMV move up

[11:36:46] TBT needs over 14.92ish, if it can get up there then a nice pop may follow higher

[10:56:56] for quick trades, short treasuries via TBT and TMV may offer more room for a big intraday move than spx does,,,,i continue to daytrade it each day, eventually the bigger move intraday should come, though when is unknown

1051
long TBT for quick trade at 14.83

1020
SLW, mentinoed yest, has now broken over its 5 day high

949
a close  today under 128.50 on TLT would be confirmation of the bear eve star candle pattern mentioned 2 days ago
948
TMV (bear TLT) up 1% but still see the same trgts as yesterday, holding

947
NUGT up 4.5% today but still see higher, holding the swing longer

947
still no swing short setup for spx imo
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".