Friday thoughts

401
when the bear pattern does fail, new highs often result instead, about 2% higher than previous high

401
today ES has a bearish shoot star candle, but there are several things to suggest it will not signal a reversal, or a large one if it does pullback. Shoot stars need confirmation, and other things need to support them to be effective.

352
8590 cat mini trgt

351
 lim sell axp 5897 if able else will hold

309
on daily es, this is the third try to break 1468ish,,,it failed thus far on the third try,,,but there's also common saying "beware shorting the third try at a high"...often breaks higher, swing

204
oil waking up

134
they just raised the buy level on ES...to 1458

133
Investment banks right now have dropped their buy level, with a sell level at 1467ish ES

130
1454 next supp under that

129
an es minor break here down to 1457 1458 and then bounce up would be a headfake down,,watching if it sustains under 1457 if it gets there for no headfake,,1460 last

110
may bounce in 18 minutes signal rang at 1461.40 es

108
TLT is likely to test lower to 120.70 area, the question is, does it bounce first and allow re-shorting?

104
CAT 60min chart has a mini bull inv HS, and dbl bottom on it,,,see it?

101
72% rang es

1252
sold half uco
sold half at avg cost,,,of oil,,,avg down intraday accomplished its purpose, avg cost on uco 29.47

1203
added UCO

1129
es 1458 support level

1119
70% ES long rang, not 72% yet

1117
bought oil long, via UCO,,,STARTER position only
if oil moves today, will take profits, else will hold overnight

1055
market makers are interested in buying nugt at todays low, fwiw

for swings that would be bullish for gdx nugt,,,tho i'm on the sidelines now,,,exited yesterday,,,nugt did hit the posted 1850 trgt,,,see a pb then over 1850 later

1034
altern is to just place a stop under low of day in tmv,,,but range so narrow that stop will prob get hit, so taking it a bit higher off here

1033
TLT may try to make a sudden move higher, if it does i will reshort tlt via tmv,,,i still plan to re-enter TMV,,just want out now because its range is very small after a decent 3% move higher this morn in TMV

1031
out of TMV for now, looking to buy again later

1022
1468 es is simple clear easy to see resist,,,but imo there is enough momentum to break it higher today.... "rule" says resist is resist until broken of course, something to watch,, 1472 es for ex

1014
axp tested yest hi, pulled back to near yest close, where i bought it,,,,next test of yest hi it can break it higher

1013
axp, one of the dow 30, daily looks like it wants to test 5940 area, daily macd recent hist cross over 0, stoch mvoing over 62,

1003
Market Maker reports: intraday only, atm, they are in trade mode, no bias up or down, but "trade mode" does tend to favor the direction of the existing trend, in this case up

951
also imo,,,for newer traders, or traders with struggling accounts: simple approach to fix that:  trade less frequently, pick your spots, and trade LONGSIDE only ... again its not that i'm a bull, but statistically market spends more time sideways or up, than down. Even in a bear market.  Fantastic gains can be made shortside, but it's trickier and harder, statistically.

948
es 1468 next trgt,,, know it sounds like a broken record but still not swing shortable at 1468 trgt imo,,,will wait for 1488, or a different chart landscape at 1460s


942
CAT is now finally shifting into 3rd gear,,,now leading finally, CAT up 1.4% vs spy up 0.5%
TMV also up nicely today, 3% while AA up 2%


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".