Tues thoughts

138
nice move up  in AM D since thurs last

131
74% just rang at 1591

129
74% almost ready to ring on ES short, 1591 last

111
nugt now at .83 prior high 15min chart test....

100
buy back zone on nugt: 1141 and 1120

1254
made the 1172,,,stalling here now

1248
1170 resist on nugt b4 the 1193/1196....may not make over 1172ish

1246
theres nugt...big quick test of the 1161 to 1166..note how soon it came after MM "cleared it"....this is what happens when they raise the ask :)

1236
nugt cleared by MM for test of 1161,,raised the ask from 1144
still looking for 1193 tho if poss to sell half again, keep half...after adding half more shares 1134

1218
72% short ES rang...1589.50 es

1143
these ticks on uvxy...MM are buying it...636  635
 doesnt mean cant go lower, but they like it here

Inv Bank level is 629 and 616

1139
*** swings...LOTS of buying interest by MM and Inv Banks in VXX   UVXY near the 636 level right here now this price in uvxy

624--636 area

1136
not adding uvxy since have enough in port...but no reason to sell here uvxy...uvxy buy level 630 maybe if it wants to drop but later same high trgts in uvxy

1135
very low vol on 3min chart as ES climbed up...susceptible to downside later ...may make new highs but is good for swings short...is tetsting resist now and vol picking up a lil at resist level

1116
still same trgts on uvxy

1116
1134 added nugt...bought back half position that was sold at 1356

1045
Inv banks now at 1120/1194 on NUGT...MM have a sell at 1161 so stall there b4 1194

1034
tho its obvious that the 1 / -1 inverse type relationship on daily dollar:spy has not been manifesting for awhile...we do get these "non inverse periods" tho they dont last forever and eventually revert

BUT the inverse relationship to Dollar:GOld is much more reliable, for obvious reasons...oil also tho politics affects the oil relationship

1033
there is now lots of resist at 8240/8250ish area if it happens to bounce that high would be "gift" to add shorts

1032
notice how DX has broken major support...only small break but this was expected...toward the 8160 8150...then will see what happens

this is VERY VERY important "easy to see" level on the DX daily chart.

1030
1--9 minutes..uvxy may hit 667
bell rang LOL

1029
IF the UVXY half gets filled to sell....will buy more NUGT if its at decent price... swing...

1028
NUGT susceptible to quick 5-10% move higher imo,,,and later 50-100% trgts

1027
10.90 buy and 12.20 sell are BIGGEST Investment Bank Levels on NUGT

1025
it suggests nugt makes the 1197 then stall

1024
1142/1193 Inv Banks nugt
and strangely...MM just moved their levels "wider" v close to Inv Banks...b4 that they were tighter and closer to price

1021
AMD is trying to break 277 resist,,,if so then 285, 293....real trgt is 4.44..long term swing

1017
gold...going for breakout...expected reactions to us dollar

1016
DX futures US dollar just hit support, and may want a trip to 8150/8160 before bounce instead of here at obvious support 8176...theres no sign of letting up atm..posted trgt yest and last week

1008
LONG the USLV 1142. positioning for dollar break. may want lower silver first, but in half position fir now

1008
wow the DX is rapidaly approaching KEY TRGT and support area..just 0.10 away...8184 last...reaction there impt...would expect stall at support but this is third test,,,a weak bounce would be bearish...will observe and may take hours days to break it...tho its precariously breakable today...could go either way

959
749 and 840 old orders in uvxy swing...still have those orders and targets also

956
UVXY hit Inv Bank level 1 here but trying to hold out for #2,,,,at 667

946
daily candle on DX already about same size as yest and day b4 candles, at this early hour...

944
DX 8150 is impt # tho ...if that breaks then down to 8060ish trgt

941
NUGT buying opp here. swings. for patient

940
:) US Dollar has broken yest low as expected, and now headed to 81.76ish...if THAT breaks then there will likely be intensified selling and a nice surge in metals...not expecting 8176 break today 

938
Investment Bank update: could change later, but for now the Inv Banks are on the sidelines, with buy and sell levels far from curr price. Market Makers are trading as usual but Inv Banks on sidelines. Inv Banks only interested in the extremes, for now

936
looks breakable lower here,dollar

935
dollar at support test now and needs to hold and bounce, else could see another big red candle...already has one on the 60m chart.

breaks lower in dollar would benefit gdx nugt gld xlv

932
US dollar DX futures UUP continues to act as expected and is hitting prev posted targets. same swing targets, no changes. More downside

927
654 was old Inv Bank level, then it was raised to 667. so watching the 654 area and reaction, but it can pierce the 654 in opening hour higher volume trading period

924
have order in to sell half UVXY at 6.67 if able, Investment Bank level. pre-market trading at 6.43 just over yest close. may sell at lower price if not filled but for now 667 on half, and keep half for higher

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Mon thoughts

355
UVXY very close now to filling the 654 sell on half the quick swing...i will not lower it..if not filled today, will see what it does tomorrow and prob get a higher price tomorrow if no fill today

345
NUGT is up 5% today and look how small the day candle is....shows the huge potential in nugt

336
us dollar DX futures on daily chart look headed to 8174 lower and then 8030 lower. if so, it could push gold silver nugt and GDX to mid term trgts,,,nugt could see a huge increase

331
** New Investment Bank sell level 6.67 for UVXY...now has better chance of getting the 6.54 fill...will keep the order at 6.54 not raising to 667

323
nugt hit 12.28 near the prev posted 12.22 buy level and has since bounced up to 12.42 last. the Inv Bank levels usually hold on first tries

320
then 1582 is "real" trgt on ES,,,order to exit there if able

315
protect scalp gains, tighten stops on es shorts, 1586 trgt, will also see if that breaks or not...likely hold but break could accell selling,,also could bounce here 1588

308
heres uvxy at 641 trgt...watching reaction

306
lots of resist on UVXY 641 and 654 areas, tho always more breakable in the final hour

305
prob will give a profitable scalp but downside today also prob limited

3-5
could go either way here tho on signal...plenty of downside but has held up all day on ES, and "when" they drop it can vary, no fixed formulae or strat for it

304
74% rang, short es,  at 1590.50
intraday signal not swing, tho swings also look good

252
1297 is Investment Bank sell level, so prob will stall if it gets ther, BUT its late in day, and also 1297 does not give "that big" of a candle,,,has higher trgts

it can break 1430 toward 16.00 or 17.00

251
I have RAISED my order to sell nugt (quick swing) from 12.97 to 13.70... i dont want to sell it at 12.97 this late in day, may not give a buy back opp, and i only have a half position quick trade and full position mid swing trade

221
uvxy 6.41 resist and may stall there. but still have 654 trgt for now...may take some off 641 if we start to run out of time...want to take some off before 4pm...def will keep at least half though

216
still lots of room on nugt swings....50-100% and more, rare 3 year opp setup

214
imo, only way to trade uvxy vxx longs: trade only at extremes, and active trade half.....holding the 100% of all shares can decay and result in losses

214
remember that UVXY VXX tendency is huge green daily candles and many smaller red ones...so strat is to quick trade half position for 1--5% gains and hold the other half position for the big candle daily.

trading half and keeping half makes for small gains, but also serves as an excelllent cost basis method too as it lowers cost basis

212
watching carefully now as UVXY VXX 3min charts are rising, despite ES 3min charts rising and trying to make a new high over april 11 high

not necessarily today, but uvxy vxx may be basing for a huge move up in them. near gift territory here, almost not quite...but imo def worth a half size swing position. and quick trades also, long uvxy

137
EXTREMELY low volume on the ES 3min charts now

114
1247 last nugt, close enough to buy level 1

105
uvxy trgts remain unchanged

104
NUGT: 1222 and 1246 are buy levels for 1297 trgt
1222 abd 1297 are Inv Bank levels, 1246 is MM level

1139
watching reaction if es hits 1584

1139
74% almost ready to ring from 72% curr short alert on ES shortside...uvxy may pop soon
last 1586 es

1135
3rd hit here on the old NUGT 1262 resist level...still think it makes higher targets after it bangs this one enough times

1102
ES starting to get some red 3min candles now, after 72% alert...watching for followthru or not

1100
todays early morn opening high on nugt was 1280 but imo the "real" numbers are 1272 and 1297

1100
** new order on NUGT... sell second half quick trade from last week, at 12.97 NUGT if able. last 1268...if the  1272 resist area breaks then 12.97 is a Investment bank sell level....the SWING nugt multiweek hold has much higher targets, 50-100% gain targets as posted last week

1058
NUGT 1262 is now its second hit of old Inv Bank level from Friday,,,new levels higher but stalls near old numbers common,,,tho already tested once so could break to new daily highs after 2-4 tries at old level...raised resist to 1272 for now, 1260 last

1056
72% short just rang on 1587 ES.... intraday scalp signal alert

1053
1478-1483 gold futures resist zone, last 1473
simple horiz resist, prior highs, not complicated... those are NOT the Inv Bank levels tho

1053
mvoing now....1271 stall would be ok on NUGT, from 1240 move

1047
Gold futures moving up on 3min also trying to break resist...may see pop in gdx and nugt soon

1045
trailing stops work pretty good, but in my experience the Inv Bank sell levels give better returns than the trail stop

1044
749 and 840 old orders in uvxy swing...still have those orders and targets also

1042
uvxy..just made new intraday high, still no pb in ES...may turn out nicely quick trade
640 last

1041
broken record...but often the Inv Bank levels for today are hit tomorrow not today...like how nugt got hit this morn and we sold, b4 the nugt pullback

1040
this is one way that UVXY makes new intraday highs....it starts move up b4 ES down, then when ES goes down, that proples UVXY to new daily high intraday

1038
UVXY here is trying to breakout higher on the 3min charts ahead of ES which on 3min is also higher,

1000
also normally would wait for retest of ES high of day 1584ish not 1582, but ES was harshly rejected 1584 this morn so might not make it all way back up

958
uvxy may want 616 first before 654...if so may add at the 614 level. those are the Investment Bank Levels buy/sell

956
uvxy 6.32 scalping
i think ES will retest low of day, mkae a lower low


938
will prob buy back the shares for another nugt quick trade, still holding mid term swing in nugt as a seperate trade with diff targets

938
NUGT order to sell 12.64 half of shares, posted friday, was filled. still have half and will look to buy back. only 1.5% gain on it, intent was to take profit on half as the "average down" second buy fulliflled its purporse.

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

332
putting uvxy 6.36 buy order back in...same order that had earlier today unfilled and then cancelled

330
pushing up ES on low vol. may give opp to add some shorts swings. approaching trgt short area posted 930am...took all day almost there

328
us dollar at decent resist here and could turn lower by 4pm. DX futures

259
if ES cant test 1582 before 4pm, not good...its v close to it now at 1578 but marginally lower highs on the 60m chart

and sellers waiting there if it does test it

256
nugt should pop here now...1192 last

236
BELOW the mkt at ES 1576.50 is a short opp on break lower, to add more shorts
usually need a 2-3 point break for acceleration but in this case maybe 0.50 will work

232
es testing that 1578 now....resist
normall this chart pattern ES should be able to break the 1578 for one more move up BUT the data is saying hidden weakness and may not make it. remains 78% short tho chart not looking too bad,,,yet

228
78% es short rang...watching if gets follow thru or not, 1578
a move over 1578 will push it back to 74%

225
likely MM buy 657/660

224
Market Makers stepped in at 668...why i sold half scalp there

224
 still have 693 sell order also on uvxy swing piece if filled to sell 25% there...diff trade than scalp

223
take half off uvxy scalp here 668 into stregth from 650
2.8% gain in few minutes

220
76% rang es short, at 1577.50
72 and 78% are the more impt ones tho

217
might get a shoot star candle now on the 3min es....

216
***just dropped the ask
74% rang

213
72% alert rang at long uvxy 650 posted b4...about to ring 74%...

210
nugt made 1230 near the 1233 level and back off. at least it is respecting the levels and acting normally. still see poss run for 1260

205
Gold close over 1470 would likewise be bullish for swings gold

204
SPY also looks like it needs another 4--12 trading hours with down sideways bias

203
if GDX could close over 30.26 today it would be particularly bullish for it...not expecting it since 60min charts do say now sideways even lower again for next 4--12 trading hours, but the gdx is sooo volatile it often defies "normal" equity behavior

200
1260 nugt more poss now that Investment Bank just set second sell level at 1290 nugt. 1266 first level.

155
UVXY here 649 could work

154
1233 is next level on nugt,,,may not make the 1260 sell trgt today

152
nugt s now right at posted 1210 resist...watching reaction

107
have order to sell half of nugt if it hits 1260, and keep half

1233
if SPY closes like this, or lower, we have 2 things on SPY chart: yest bear shoot star. and second pattern 3 days bear eve star

1231
next 5 candles on nugt gdx 3min chart may allow bounce
nugt 1210 resist on bounce first try

1225
evidence suggests that "someone" a client of the Inv Bank wanted to sell, and it forced the Inv Bank long in order to service customer. takes time but generally price will rebound as the Inv Banks need to recoup their money. they do this in order to keep customers happy as well as make money

1222
a LOT of Inv Bank interest in nugt 11.67 level. good sign for swings

1210
half size position nugt quick swing, have room to buy half more but not adding here

1156
ES hit trgt 1,,,approaching trgt 2

1150
they still are NOT letting up ES SPX up for air today...many bearish warnings over n over again

1118
extra shares bought allows selling half of it at 1330 trgt, and hold half for higer..for scalps.....swing trgt much higher

1116
nugt back at 1280...added a lil more at buy area...may not stay there long

1112
ES "should be " bouncing on this 3min chart pattern...and it looks like its not able to...continues to exhibit many bearish warnings intraday

1101
the US dollar is testing support now and "should" bounce at this level. but it looks breakable nonetheless....if it breaks watch for a reaction higher in GOLD NUGT... it "looks like" the pros are buying gold here now before the dollar breaks

1059
1571 prior daily low ES...think 1567 break under it poss...

1055
: ES now at trgt 2 lower for second time today. 1575.  watching for next trgt lower , 1569, 1562, 1558

1053
*** BOUGHT nugt. breakout poss. paid premium. 1294 above the 1280 and 1270 1250 buy levels

1044
These are orders in place on UVXY in case of fast moves: sell 25% at each level: 6.93   7.49   8.4

1038
if today turns out to find some selling pressure, these are ES trgt 1575, 1569, 1562, 1558 posted earlier. the 1575 already been hit. And 1558 could be seen today, not saying it will be,,,but this action "allows" for it imo

1036
these chart now intraday: have set up possibility of big down move in ES...

1033
1280 nugt buyable right now imo...

1031

1277 new NUGT buy level...keep raising it in line with MM and Inv Bank actions...tho no fills yet

but 1277...i wont buy automatically...no order is in

1025
its kinda choppy here in the Mkt. often bearish. no steady trickle higher.

1020
1348 and then again at 1356 NUGT prob stall on this surge on 3min charts. last 1330

1017
CANCELLED the UVXY buy order 6.37 for fear it's forgotton about later LOL

1016
thats whats nice about "having" some shares in a position and "scaling in"...no need to "chase"...can wait for right price u already have some shares...sometimes u dont get fills like today on NUGT (nugt hit buy trgt 1 but not buy trgt 2....still may try for those lower tho...watching).... same with "missed" buying opps in uvxy

not every limit order to buy or sell is going to get filled

1014
ES...obviously the 72% rang shortly after "warning" it might. bounces shortable, same trgt area higher if able

1012
1251 new BUY trgt on NUGT....over the 1227

1010
maybe NUGT will give a buy first. 1227 would be nice

1009
larger MM not Inv Banks...were waiting to sell higher...the smaller MM jumped under the bigger ones to sell here...watching if it bounces to short trgt. not chasing since already have some shorts

1005
: wow...es should be able to creep a little higher here but stalling
if it doesnt move up soon, a 72% short alert is going to ring

1001
commited. put in order to buy UVXY 6.37 if filled,last 654,,,,may pay more later unsure

1000
adj trgt sell short 1585...3 points higher

959
looking at UVXY 6.37 poss buy trgt...

955
1583 ES may be shortable if bounce there this morn, or near 1583, poss 1581-1585...will watch for opps in spxu uvxy vxx

15min SPY chart "allows" bounce but first bounce likely sold intraday...also the 1583 is ES horiz resist. 15min chart pattern to bounce to 1583 es then down to 1575 and 1569 trgt to start

943
same with NUGT...bounced right near prior posted buy level Inv Bank just now

941
6.74 UVXY prior Investment Bank level, right in the middle of gap and not easily visible on chart...but amazing how consistently the Inv Bank trgts are hit with immediate stalls even in non-obvious spots and prices

940
UVXY just hit the 6.74 trgt, did not sell here...watching reaction...

937
NUGT now at old Inv Bank buy level 12.90. other one is 12.27 below

931
uvxy have an order to sell 6.93, only 25% of shares in swing. this is ABOVE yest trgt 6.74...is at the 6.61 prior Inv Bank level now, may stall again 6.74, will see...

925
GM all. UVXY trading higher pre-market, close to its 6.74 trgt sell area for 25% of swing shares. but i'll wait and see what it wants to do at the open, instead of selling at 6.74

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

400
will see if 1578/1576 get tagged AH or not, or by 415...gnite all

356
LOL the MM are NOT selling anymore...just not buying until 1576...letting the lil guys sell it here

353
theres the 1581 break...see if it goes for 78/76

352
1576 not 1578 is where they r waiting to buy the es...1581 last


351
normally would go under 1581 with that action

351
this candle on ES...SPX...MM selling it...despite up

349
LOL feels so weird to be long VIX...usually short vix is better trade for swings because of its drip drip drip tendency

348
Market Makers are buying the vix long products here fwiw...

345
UVXY: keeping the sell order 25% at 6.74. if it gaps up tomorrow, or is hit tomorrow morning, i'll just let it fill. not raising for now. other trgt 7 and 8ish much higher for remaining 75%. will try to buy back if able if lower in morn

344
if NUGT gets those levels tomorrow, will buy prob, depending on chart

342
nugt had buy levels today at 1290 and 1227 which were not hit...fact they were not hit is bullish imo and worth a half size long position in nugt...knowing it may drop to those levels later... they almost always hold, the old levels

340
UVXY..last 3min red candle was retail selling not MM...the MM are buyying this fwiw

339
621 buy level Inv Bank on UVXY if it gets there...not buying since have enough....last 637...smaller MM will buy 630

332
notice gold futures...they have held up despite dollar bounce. bullish for gold silver

330
if it were earlier in day, or if i didnt already have a lot of nugt swing, i'd buy it here. 1325.
half position only not full

328
hopefully UVXY will be at 774 when es gets 1576
else may exit that 25% of uvxy at es 1576.50ish

323
if SPY cannot get higher b4 the close,,,going to be a nasty daily candle. that SHOOT STAR we talked about earlier today

312
*** Inv Banks running again........674 raised level to sell uvxy from 661....likely get stall still on old level 661---its inv bank not MM level....again this time of day this stuff can break...why they raised it

the Inv Banks do NOT usually move like this...they usually keep their levels.....even at 3-4pm

MM move their levels much more of course

306
there it is. filled. gain 4.3% on that piece of uvxy from this morn

now...trading the SWING uvxy...scallp all gone

306
it "should" fill and overshoot, move toward 660 trgt

306
LOL missed by 1 penny the uvxy order to sell...still waiting

303
ES hit the 1583 trgt,,,1580 next

301
smaller market makers moved in ahead of Inv Bank level and jumped over them to sell lower...is what happend

300
usually on those "near misses" the trgt gets overshot higher...but keeping scalp sell at that level, holding swing for higher

300
grr missed by 3 cents...still keeping..MM will try to buy uvxy 627 if they can, then 660

257
**** UVXY cleared for 660 test...should hit the 646 fill trgt scalp

256
broken

255
77% rang...the 78 is much more impt, short es at 1583..implies may break it

254
also UVXY over 650 levels...could put ES selling pressure and uvxy higher...BUT expecting the 646 to hold first try...tho at this final hour its breakable,,,just respecting the level until broken

252
may get a 78% sell alert today on es,,,close but not yet..still at 74% from 1586
if it gets to 85%...watch out below

248
"funny math"... 1/2 + 1/2 + 1/2 = 1.  government contract accounting

247
sold here, into stregth...3% gain
2% on first half
still have half left (bought back near same price)

246
preparing to sell half of UVXY scalp bought this morn (double dip second buy_.)...same plan as b4...sell half keep half, except this time i wont buy back...too late

245
MM just sold the 1586...may see a shoot star in 3min charts...

243
1346 nugt buy level, in between the obvious 1360 and 1320

242
measures 4 points which just so happens to be t2 at 1580

241
ES 3mi charts...bearish M

237
have an order to sell swing UVXY 8.40...not expecting it today, but sitting there in case of spx flash crash huge move up in uvxy...always have them in place to "catch" events like tuesday

posted the 840 other day...

230
hard to explain algos in text messages LOL

230
its just coincidence that it keeps ringing at 1586-ish es area...its not set to ring at that price...just that the alerts are triggering at that price level from other data input

but when it does ring multiple times coincidentally at same price...usually means that price is "real" since the alert  is derived,not direct, and such derivation keeps lining up with same price

229
74% rang, es short

220
1583 and 1580 ES trgt test levels lower....it can drop to 1580 and still be bullish for another bounce,,,tho its looking toppy from multidays weeks perspective

if the 1580 breaks,,,could mark the high

219
UVXY poss getting set now for mini trgt scalp 646...still have the order in to sell scalp there....uvxy swings higher trgts as posted

214
**** Market Makers and a few Invesment Banks have been accumulating VXX...not saying this is bottom for vxx uvxy....but imo good buy level...they accum for overnight holds multi days...

but this accum gives UVXY 5--30% gains potential, as had many times...uvxy vxx tend to put in huge green candles and many small candles daily....trick is to only buy when SPX is at extreme levels and not in no mans land

159
: half position in nugt now at 34% gain...holding for higher after selling half yest...still have gold in other account from before "crash" at net loss but trading out of the loss toward net gains

156
Investment Banks once again raised their sell levels on NUGT to 1450 from 1425...this much raising without selling some before raising is somewhat unusual...but the old levels generally stall...because of the "rare event" in gold, the nugt is even more volatile than normal

half position in nugt now at 34% gain...holding for higher

141
still have 646 order in to sell some uvxy scalps if able. higher trgts swing

119
uvxy may make buy level 609...Inv Banks waiting there to buy vix type instruments uvxy vxx

117
MM selling here nugt 1391,,,but inv banks went higher

116
***raised...14.20 new Investmen Bank sell level NUGT...they r running away LOL

111
stilll have the nugt swings...holding thru all this noise



109
NUGT looks like 1368 heavy resist break poss for 1396

103
GOLD testing its daily high now and looks breakable higher, and ES poss pullback..both those make me hesitate to take any DUST atm...NUGT could break its resist with that combo, also DX us dollar UUP....but still see the 1369 heavy resist on nugt...will watch reaction

101
74% ES short almost ready to ring ...at 1585.50 last

1251
if u count the weekly candles on SPX SPY ES....its nearing "time" for pullback...was looking at earlier this morn, just quick glance, not exact....but notice where the red candles came in the past...

1249
if 1369 NUGT breaks, likely to go over 1380...heavy resist at the 1369...

may take a quick DUST trade at 1369 nugt...depending on when it comes

1242
still waiting on nugt 1290 and 1227 possibly buy areas..hasnt pulled back that far tho

1158
fasten seat belts?

1152
"weird looking" 72% short may be kicking in here...es

1150
VERY LIKELY that UVXY stall if it gets 646-650, unless "unusual" event...on first try intraday...orders set to sell 646

1147
watching 1315 NUGT for poss buy. last 13.33. if 1315 holds....could be a nice release from stretched 15min with not too harsh pb, for higher

the 15min gdx nugt are tired and need some pb,,,the daily still has lots higher with the 60min neutral/bullish

1145
646 still same scalp trgt on uvxy full scalp,,,half off at lower 'obvious' resist points like b4
swing trgts higher in uvxy as posted b4

1144
hmm 72% short ES just rang at 1585
its a strange chart setup,,,not sure whats happening LOL...usually looks "different"
intraday signal not swing

1142
buying back have the half UVXY i sold at 2% gain here...scalp...now back to full scalp size

1124
AMD trgt is 3.80 multiweek swing, then 4.40. last 2.67. watch for a break of daily rectangle to upside. may take awhile. multiweeks

1120
nice pop on uvyx. half off at obvious resist near daily high. 2% gain

1119
IF es goes under 1582,,,may see larger pullback...thats the risk in mini breaks resist...often false up with hard down
109
but respecting the 1368 resist area...its an old Investment Bank sell area...so watching
they almost always stall on first try of Inv Bank prior levels, tho Inv Banks are now sitting higher


1114
scalp kicking in for uvxy...at 1.3% gain atm

1059
4%+ gain if 646 hit

1057
646 trgt on 618 uvxy just bought...swing uvxy much higher trgts over 700 800

1030
another 4 candles on SPX ES SPY may present opp to add intraday shorts,,,

1029
bought some uvxy on ES test of its overnight high

1024
buying some UVXY here 618.  more at 608--610 if able

956
approx 12.90 and 12.27 nugt buy levels

953
GDX Inv Bank update: their buy level is 29.70.  I'll buy nugt if GDX gets there if able

946
Market Makers are trading GDX this morn. buy level 1 is 3049 gdx.  BUT the Inv Banks are not participating...waiting for Inv Banks to show their hand with more accurate levels, and then may buy back half nugt sold at 22% gain... MM usually have multiple buy levels and waiting to buy at next lower buy level until know what Inv Banks want,,,and also chart-wise, to let some candles form intraday 3min and 15min charts

942
Notice again how GDX and NUGT tagged almost to the penny the Investment Bank levels, and then stalled pulled back. posted NUGT trgt was 13.74, hit 1380 and has dropped to 1320 last. nonetheless, still have higher swing trgts on NUGT GDX.

934
imo uvxy still buyable, overnight holds

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

359
gdx made 3043 today....target was 3047--3055 on gdx posted this morn 10am...almost made it fell a little short

356
took gains on half nugt here from yest. 21% gain from entry yest

351
******** NEW sell level Invesmtne Bank set on GDX at 31.07....still using the 3049-3055 trgt for now since old levels usually stick...but will watch that 3107 tomorrow... just set 2 min ago

349
nugt GDX is now exactly at gap resist, but the Inv Banks have todays sell level curiously set about 1% "into" the gap...watching here what it does

346
631,,,MM buying uvxy into close at that level

345
3024 last gdx...trgt 3049--3055

345
one more push...will put nugt at 10am trgt...will still sell under it , half today by 4pm

339
some Investment Banks sell level 655...others have moved their sell levles higher from 667 to 740, uvxy...moving fast the Inv Banks....faster than usual...usually the MM are fast but Inv Banks slow

337
641 trgt uvyx moved to 654...then 667...may see 641 stall or "it" there, last 635

335
PLAN:  going to take gains on half of nugt swing today, and keep second half for higher....if opp present will buy back half again lower tomorrow or other day

334
Investment Bank sell levels are often not hit until next day....maybe 75% hit next day not same day..why its "stretch" trgt...but holding for now,,,and may sell later,,,still up 18.5% today nugt

332
NUGT trying hard for the stretch 10am posted trgt,,,

331
if able Inv Banks will buy 626 uvxy...

330
632 trigger hit twice now...takes a few tries often,,,watching

328
LOL theres the 632 quickly afterwards...

327
notice 3min green candles uvxy right up to 628, then red candles...as the Market Makers sell a little here... should get 632 still tho then trigger...normal red

326
just hit 628 trgt...uvxy..now watching for 632 trigger for 640,,667

323
second half scalp: at 6.40 sell

321
will take scalp off half at 628, maybe here 626, from 617 posting 72%, gain 1% in a few minutes

319
last uvxy 622....uvxy trgt 6.28, then trigger 6.32 for 6.40

318
30.56 is an Investment Bank level...rarely are those achieved without a stall at the trgt (final hour can blow thru it but will usually return lower...to digest)

317
30.17 next mini trgt gdx...thats also a "trigger" number that if hurdled should propel gdx toward 3050
gdx curr at trgt now,,,trying to hurdel this one for 3017, 3056

313
notice that since the 72% short alert intraday rang... the vxx uvxy charts 3min are moving higher, ahead of ES lower... ES may follow,

309
rare opps with these big moves in nugt uvxy etc...not "normal" common... trading them actively when they present...usually much quieter

255
29.90 and 30.56 are the Investment Bank Levels to sell on GDX...i'm trying to wait for 30.30ish which should put nugt at or near prev posted trgt

also i'm inclined to hold some of this nugt. yes 17% in one day is a huge day...but is it a one day wonder? maybe. but the other swing targets are higher and gdx may decide to put in 3 white soldiers pattern on daily, for another 2 up days....will see...

254
72% short ES signal rang just now at 1577

246
uvxy buyable for swings here imo, tho i'm not adding more since already have some

245
very nice nugt action, up a big 16% today...still not at target but approaching it

1000
for now, going to let the swings bake awhile. leaving at 1030 am for a few hours.
orders set to sell NUGT 13.47 and UVXY 8.40. not expecting fill today on those. trots if hit are 31% gain on nugt, and 30% on UVXY. they are not both just arbitrarily set at 31%, that's a coincidence

935
then 29.35 gdx,,, nugt up8% atm

934
NUGT bought yest up nicely here...2920 gdx first trgt for nugt so will be watching,,,may exit and re-buy lower, or hold. unsure atm

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

352
also its not "obvious" but my reports show that there was increased buying interest in vxx and uvxy today...may take awhile for it to manifest, may see lower uvxy, but imo will go over these levels nicely.  if MM and Investment Banks are not done buying,,,will go lower until they finish... 50% position on the uvxy with room to add more...or room for a wide stop on this volatile instrument

349
SPX may or may not go higher, often the 4pm system is early, and usually it does not trigger a short the same day as a long exit,,,but trusting the system

348
EXITING the UPRO long as posted b4,,,and VXX shorts UVXY shorts for gains of
7%,16%, 26% respectively. via "4pm swing system strategy"

and will also reverse to SHORT spx via longs in SPXU  and UVXY and VXX

238
nugt now at 1069 buy level
tradeable for 1094ish test higher

237
74% rang short ES at 1570

235
if 1568 es breaks, then 1565,,,could be lower after 1565 if it breaks

233
NUGT just been cleared for 1094 test, last 1078

231
1568 may stall here now...its last stall place today in es

224
es testing the 1570 trgt now..impt test

221
uvxy cleared for 654 due to 645 trigger hit...watching

220
uvxy "trigger" 645..last 640

219
NUGT also has same targets, which didnt require fast hands today LOL
still have 25% of nugt

217
if 1570 breaks then 1565 test trgt ES...72% once again manifesting here//

201
addintg more uvxy 641 here

200
72% ES is ringing short again...at 1573... moderate expectaions

142
uvxy made a massive move from 630 to 760 in minutes....posted earlier today...there was increased interest in Inv Bank buying of UVXY, crowding

140
have a 774 order in...prob wont get filled but its in just in case....others at 667 and 747,,,uvxy...bought all shares sold  back when posted b4

133
penetration levels uvxy:  656  667  692  774...stall at each normal, then pierce, then next level
almost always i'll have limit orders at the Investment Bank levels not MM levels

130
**** OVER RIDING the algo and exiting UPRO long and VXX short swings EARLY here before 4pm... i usually let it sit...but taking this "gift" bounce...bye

I dont care if it goes higher,,,that's enough to shake me out of the longs and lock the profits early

122
uvxy likely to bounce halfway up the wick at least

119
should get higher uvxy again comoing hours

1259
MM buying uvxy here 642 area...watching 645 trigger tho..needs over that

1253
654 uvxy trgt if over 645

1250
getting a lil followthru on signal here..watching to see how much

1246
72% short signal just rang at ES 1574.25
downside may be limited today tho
intraday signal not swing,

1244
uvxy 3min gave a "buy second lower low" which happened to be near inv bank level. now looking to sell second higher high...scalp-wise.....swing trgts higher and dont use 3min chart obviously lol

1234
nice low volume in spy, at least right now. susceptible to pullback lower,swing.

1209
have an order in to sell some uvxy 660...not sure it gets there

1208
here comes lil pb on es...lil pop on uvxy
nothing huge...654ish trgt uvxy..638 last

1208
SPY 3min chart looks set for pb....first pb likely be bought, may give opp tho to exit some UVXY tho certainly plan to hold a good amount as swing.. last ES 1574

1201
trgt is 50% + ish swing trgt gains on nugt swing, to 14, 16, 19.00ish

1158
1138 revised trgt on NUGT from 1038....still expect stall at 11.17, will hold out for 1138 for now
1104 last... currently at 6% gain atm from 1038 entry today...if it hits trgt then will give 9.6%
swing trgts on nugt much higher

1149
preparing to exit longs on UPRO and shorts in VXX today

1148
uvxy.....still 640 and 645 resist...not moving agress higher until those r cleared
but willing to wait on uvxy..trusting the 4pm system signals (almost triggered not yet so early entries)

1147
nugt trying fot hte 1114 trgt...just hit trgt 3...
1094 last

1128
still waiting for new entries in UVXY to kick in...may take awhile

1127
took some nugt off at 4.8--5% gain... have 25% left, from entry this morn few hours ago

1123
1091 and 1114 nugt trgts...

1123
nice move in nugt 3min as it approaches its next posted trgt higher

1121
filled on uvxy 6.30

1121
these are Inv Bank levels, not Market Maker levels

1121
Investment Bank next buy level 6.17 UVXY...will see what it does at the prior 6.30 level reaction...just hit 630

1109
order in...to add uvxy at Investment Bank 630 level if it hits there. 635 last


1102
the trigger number on nugt worked nicely... it was a MM sell level...when they get over it, usually goes to next MM trgt

1101
if uvxy gets over 6.45 it may trigger higher uvxy..simmilar to the 10.53 "over" number from nugt that pushed it to 1076 today... the trigger number on nugt worked nicely

1059
MM have still NOT raised ask on UVXY...need to raise for higher price...may be gently buying it here as they hold the price down

1055
sometimes it will first move lower to Inv Bank level of 629,,,but imo 640 and 629 area good buy areas for uvxy willing to hold overnite or take some gains today if they present. else wait overnite

this time, investment bank level happens to correspond to "easy to see horiz support on daily chart"... tho often the levels ar in no mans land.

1053
its NOT showing yet but there is increased MM interest in uvxy long here at 642 level...lining up crowding...watching if reaction comes

1048
taking off more here 1065 nugt and will buy bacck lower if able. still have half

1041
1074 revised trgt from 1067...will see what it does at 1067 to see if wait for 1074 instead.nugt.

1040
took some nugt off here for 2% gain in 1 hour....holding rest...adding at the "second chance buy" allows scaling out some here at 2%

1037
NUGT hit the 1053 ...should get 1067 t1

1036
80% wins on 4pm system since year 2000, posted performance record b4.... human traders will outperform the system but it gives good returns

1034
*** too much too fast on SPX per 4pm SWING system. that is, if it closes here or higher on ES SPY UPRO, the system is going to signal an EXIT uprop longs to take profits, and then an immediate reversal SHORT spx. need to wait for 3:55pm since system only triggers signals at the close

USUALLY the system will trigger an exit longs and move to cash not immediate short...but algo thinks otherwise atm

1029
MM bought 642 uvxy for 649 sell...

1026
if nugt hits 1053, should make the 1067 trgt
1050 last

1025
MM are holding down the UVXY  VXX with ask very close to price...wont rise until they raise the ask prices...will be watching...when they raise,,,usually gives a few minutes advance warning before reaction higher..right now headed to 627 unless ask is raised. last 643

1022
nugt at 1039..second chance buy

1017
es could go higher but lots of resist at this 1570 level

1013
if nugt sees 1027 befor 1067 then will buy more 1027 and add there

1011
then exit half or all at trgt 1, buy bak or save half for trgt 2, at 1090

1008
1038 nugt for 1067 trgt scalp

959
scalp trade kicking in now. watch 1565 es

955
shortable for early entries. 4pm sys remains on long
shortable for scalps

954
*** Market Makers not inv banks...they are selling this SPY SPX compon now, at es 1569.50

951
uvxy 6.65 Investment Bank sell area #1 atm,,,so stall there if it rises...later for swings much higher uvxy trgts but atm 665 stall area on first try

948
next UVXY buy area 6.30 where it should stall and bounce intraday if it gets there. Investment Bank buy level

948
notice rising candles on spy 3min chart vs sideways candles on uvxy chart...bought more uvxy

937
long upro and short uvxy vix have nice gains from 4pm swing system alert, but system has NOT yet issued an "exit long spx swing upro"...may give one today, unsure

936
good spot here for UVXY half size position imo, 650.  ES SPX SPY are at daily resist from April 1-4.
added more shares to allow both quick swing and mid term hold swing.

922
UVXY is below the Investment Bank buy target set yesterday. So I bought some pre-market at 6.55. Buying at the 930 open is also valid

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

356
sold some 2% gain here 706,,,,trying for 2.85% and 711 on other piece....also valid to hold some overnight swing

349
711 i'll sell it

348
hit trgt 1...uvxy ...within the 20min...trying trgt 2

344
691 uvxy here could bounce again ...to 699  712...in 20 min

y: not trading based on that, but bought some more uvxy 691

and will sell some if such surge, else hold

337
still have remaining 25% for overnight hold nugt

336
sold 25% of NUGT early here 1152 not waiting for 1173

326
still have the 1173 lim order to sell 25% of nugt

306
NUGT buy sell levels:  1120 / 1175. move to 1120 i'd buy more
1145 lsat...may see 1175 b4 1120 tho
if so, will just use existing half size 50% position. will sell 25% at 1173 and keep 25%

302
if us dollar DX UUP closes like this, DX has a possible reversal lower candle...shoot star and a lower high, daily,,,for new lows on daily charts us dollar swing. could push nugt swings higher

250
uvxy
quick surge after buy hmm...will sell 705--712ish and try buy back again lower

247
settled long enough...but still may go lower to 677

230
uvxy just hit the 690 trgt and held...693 last...but es moving too fast so giving it time to settle here.no rush esp at 230pm active last 90 min

227
cancelled 690 uvxy buy...677 i'll buy it

226
it could move from a direct "exit long" to "short" but its rare, and spx would need to be higher than this

225
btw....its most likely that when 4pm system gives "take profits on upro spx longs"...its going to move to CASH...it will NOT likely signal an immediate reversal from long to a new short position

while in cash, the system will await either the next long or short signal

218
still holding upro swing via "4pm swing sys"...no entry signal given

217
lim order to buy UVXY at Inv Bank trgt 6.90

157
sold half nugt here to lock gains, 1143,,,,a lil under 1147 lim order trgt

152
MM appear to be in trade mode atm,,,accumul longs in gdx nugt,,,and wont surge until they r done buying this level

152
Market Makers just rasied their bid prices in GDX,,,not a lot but it may be enough to push nugt to .47 trgt....they have NOT raised the ASK tho,,,so hard to get up atm,,,watching

if they raise the ask, then we will likely see a sudden pop higher on 3min ,,,else drift chop...but step 1 is there as they raise the bid which is bullish

148
for some time now, very hard for GDX and NUGT to move higher at same time as SPX, but they took such a massive hit they are doing so now, also the us dollar helping the gold metals mining sector

but if SPY can pullbakc some, it may exaggerate and accelerate a faster move higher in nugt

146
gold should now test 1426 higher, then 1438, last 1423

135
sudden move on gold here 3min

122
heres uvxy at trgt 1. taking some gains profits on some shares here. 7.20 last

104
uvxy in its initial stages of moving up,since entry earlier today

102
note that NEM a main GDX NUGT component and influencer, has begun breaking over its 15min resist, ahead of the gdx...would put nugt at 1140 instead of curr 1120 level

expecting the rest of sector to catch up and higher nugt gdx for trgts posted

1243
its above 1140 resist 15min and under daily high

1241
lim sell half nugt to take profit at 11.47 if it gets there,may sell 25% of it lower if not make 1147 ,,,,for now trying 1147

1229
trgt 1 uvxy is 718 or a lil more than 1%...

1227
690 next buy level on UVXY

1226
UVXY 7.10 long

1214
ES long scalp is at trgt here now 1553 es,,,,exit
Es spx spy may pull back now

 no exit signal on 4pm sys for upro...thats for scalp only

1137
also look at DX us dollar 3min lower....reasons for early additions in nugt and pay a lil premium on it

1137
added more here nugt...1122....for move over 1131 expected

1124
11.07 lim order to add more nugt, to allow more shares to scalp. wil continue scalping 75% and holding 25% swing

1055
resist on NUGT at 1148 under the 1188 high of day, then 1188

1053
Gold 3min chart has sustained as expected and putting in another big 3min candle

1048
big green candle forming in gold now 3min chart...may reverse higher
that 3min candle is as big as 15min candles,,,often sustains higher on that pattern

1019
after buy, nice quick bounce off 1120 nugt to 1140 last

1011
FILLED on NUGT long 11.22

1000
order to buy NUGT at 11.22 if it gets down there, last 1145....the 1143 right now is also a buy area but already bought it from about 8% lower than here so not looking to add here, the 1140 is a decent entry tho, may not make it down to 11.22 but if it does i'll buy it

941
it looks like SPX SPY UPRO might set up a buying long opp today....no entries yet, for a scalp or quick swing trade.... it would be similar to friday's long setup


939
MM sell level 1 on gdx is 2939 just above curr day high...watching reaction if it gets there...rejection or higher? its a MM level NOT an Inv Bank level

930
GDX is trading a little above Friday's posted trgt 1 Investment Bank Level...will see how much it stalls here, or if goes for higher.

Quick swing NUGT is at 12% gain atm, up 7% today,,holding for now. Swing nugt remains in the red for multiweek holds, bought just before and at the gold crash

922
4pm swing trade system: might give an exit signal today to  take profits on existing long position in SPX UPRO and VIX short,,will be watching for that

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

fri thoughts

352
what will we have on daily chart if ES goes back to 1570? poss bear Head And Shoulders....tho i'm not sure there are any reliable statistics on these patterns, just observation and personally prefer not to make trading decisions based on them

350
UVXY hit that 726 buy level posted early this morn when at 8.25 , investment banks bought there, last 7.21....but i cancelled the order and will wait on uvxy

345
hmm one more push into the close here on SPX ES SPY UPRO would give an exit signal on 4pm system...its likely to go higher if the exit does NOT come today..watching...the system only looks at the 3:58 price and other conditions for the decision, no other time

332
4pm swing sys long upro is green but has NOT given an "exit spx long to lock profits" signal...if Monday is an up day, it may give one on monday...or could last for many more days...all depends. for now i remain in upro but only with the initial position shares since add opp did not present

331
opps at 1060 to buy may present... if not...holding the remaining 25% of shares on quick swing,,,and full position multi week swing, nugt

330
took scalp profits 10.90...will keep 25% overnight
the nugt didnt hold over 1090 so i decided on exit early on that piece

322
theres the 1090 on nugt pb...now looking for an exit...will post as fast as able...none yet

315
*** i CANCELLED the order to buy UVXY 7.26

311
if nugt hits 1090 i'll be looking for earlier exit than 1127..mental stop not hard auto stop

308
nugt remains stalled here at 1100,,,expected but still looks breakable for 1127

306
lim order to sell half of remaining nugt at 11.27...leaving 25% for overnight hold and much higher trgts if the 11.27 gets filled today

302
1127 trgt if gdx gets up to 1106

300
LOL hit 1099 while typing..watching

259
it looks on chart like nugt should be able to go over 1103 towards 1140 BUT the MM have not lowered the ask...unless they raise the ask, there will be a lot of pressure at 1103 area...and may not get 1140  1200 today...watching actino in the last hour here

258
theres overshoot of 1083..toward 1103 nugt next trgt intraday

255
Earlier in day if it were testing resist on us dollar DX...would be less risky..but higher volume now could break it...or harsh rejectionn lower...either

254
Us dollar trying to break resist higher here...could push down gold...but resist still holding mostly...but cautious...still see higher gold just expecting chop also

249
took some profits here 1076 nugt on some shares...scalp

reduced shares on NUGT to amount willing to hold overnite...did not want all that overnight so sold some to reduce risk, lower profit

244
some selling here on the ES...watching what it does

211
grrr mised by 2 cents...so i RAISED to 1099 now...
often near miss...will overshoot after...and will adjust manually if no fill soon on half

209
theres 1078,,, trying 1083 still lim..:)

153
Inv Bank sell level gdx is above todays high, level is 29.14
Nugt levels lower for whatever reason

152
the 1062 was a Market Maker not Inv Bank level..usually capable of moving thru those, if the candles are not small (in this case not small)

149
intersting Inv Bank sell level 1 on NUGT at 1083...in between horiz resistances at 1096 and 1072...may hit 1077 stall then 1083,,,will watch it from scalp perspective. order remains 1083

sneaky if it follows that pattern

142
*** "someone" bought gold futures this morning...see that 1:00 am and 2am candles, and the volume on it, gold futures GC 60 min chart?

138
hmm intersting Investmen Bank levels on NUGT to sell...are lower than gdx...does this suggest some sideways and chop rollercoaster tape, since the decay on nugt???

the gdx levels are the master levels tho and the real trgts

136
if it can get to 1065 nugt, then should give the 1083 trgt. last 1061

131
lim order to sell half nugt 10.84 if able, scalp acct not swing..swing trgts much higher over 14

125
1062 trgt nugt

124
Inv Banks trading the gold market more actively than normal,,,kinda makes sense given the rare huge move lower in gold...hasnt moved like that in 3 years?

123
another buy level 10.11 nugt on Inv Bank...they dont usually have this many in one day (inv bank)...tho common for MM to have several

120
bought nugt here 1030 buy level. added

1241
move lower in dollar may propel silver gold gdx higher

1240
UUP us dollar 60min chart has a big bear diverg on 60min charts. higher price/double high vs lower macd hist

1217
there is potential for move in gold today or tomorrow...if one looks at overnight gold futures 1424 high,,,gold silver gdx nugt may all benefit

also note the volume on futures at 1am

1216
added more nugt, to allow scalping before end of day, more shares, 1062

1208
nugt hit all buy zones today...one last Inv Bank buy level at 1032,,,,may be todays low if nugt wants to go down there,,,tho theres resist at 1084 right not

1147
i have order to buy 7.26 uvxy,,,good today only, and may cancel b4 end of day...may bounce there first try....Investment Bank Buy level 7.24

i wanted to short VXX but didnt...oh well..didnt give right entry...well it DID give entry but i didnt see it right LOL''

1109
thus far ES and UPRO are NOT GIVING an add more longs swing opp since entry...normally it will give a chance after the 4pm signal triggers....so having to just use the initial entry for now...

thats good for existing position but would be nice to add more....

1053
Possibly exit OUT of the IBM short position, posted entry awhile ago....on todays 7.5% drop...if stoppped out...not stopped yet, but protecting 11% gain...stop set at 9% gain or about 2% higher from here

1050
nugt still buyabel...at 1084 still...may move up now on the 3min after a 10 cent drop after entry

1047
ES should pullback here on 3min, last 1543

1037
willing to endure 1052 lower on nugt, next buy level down, but adding for poss higher instead

1036
ADDED more nugt here, 1083,,,may buy 4 more times, 1081 last

1021
quick 1% bounce in a couple minutes off the 1085 buy level

1018
1056 and 1011 is next MM buy level on nugt

1017
1085 NUGT could work here if one didnt have existing position...i'm waiting to add..in from yest lower prices but this is micro buy level

1014
also NUGT is setting up an entry scalp long, not there yet on 3min chart,needs more time. may add to nugt also, the nugt would be an avg up not down, so it will reduce the percent gain but increase the dollar gain...if opp presents, else holding existing

1011
the 15min and 60min charts are battling since they are at opposite trends, in the cash SPY not ES....so chop is likely here in "no mans land" due to such common battles when 15 and 60 are unaligned

1008
NEXT pullback on ES 3min chart...will prob go long upro, poss short VXX,,and likely be over the 1531 es...valid for scalps, quick swings, and multidays weeks swings,,,,position size depends on timeframe one wants to hold

my plan is to actively trade it, scalp/quick swing times, so medium size positions, with understanding it might drop lower after entry. but i trust the "4PM swing system long alert" that triggered and pref posted

957
poss buying opp at es 1531 if it gets there, scale in size position, 25-50% size to allow additions later, wider stop. last 1537

also possible VIX short there at es

951
MM just raised the ask in GDX, may allow for test of high of day, and a new day high, coming 1-90 minutes

946
also watching DX futures, us dollar...or uup...DX curr testing support and may break lower

934
nugt gdx now at yest posted trgt 1 on gdx...holding a bit longer here for poss break of such trgt
swing NUGT....holding for much higher thna this,,,thats just yesterdays quick swing

931
Going to try to hold yesterdays new NUGT for gold futures around 1420-1425 if possible, for first trgt exit. nugt curr up 7% this morn

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

347
if one used UVXY instead of SPXU, gain would be 33-40%...naturally the stuff moves much more than spxu, esp on downside...

341
btw,,,the same 4pm sys is signalling "take profits on shorts from 26.24 few days back"...giving exit signal.. about 9% gain on SPXU if one took that swing 4pm trade in 6 days hold time

339
conversely, these charts do look "ominious" on spy and "look like a big pullback possible"... the 4pm system is purely algorithmic based with no human input.

334
4pm swing trading system will trigger a "buy SPY or SSO or UPRO long at the close today 4pm, if it is below 1544 ES". 80% wins long and short combined, and longs generally do better than shorts, since year 2000. hold time 3--46 days approx.

if UVXY were higher, i'd short that,,,but too volatile and not high enough imo...
no guarantees on upro. signal can often be early. just presenting historical performance which is no guar of future results

327
ES may go lower than 1535 (or 1540 sp500)in coming days, but 80% chance it will bounce and give a daily close over that, timeframe 3--46 days.''

80% based on stock market activity from 2000 till present

320
still think GDX is going to 34 minimum, and then prob to 37 and higher, in time, for swings. multi weeks months but can trade actively in meantime. GDX situation is similar to AAPL before, though of course they aer not related...but chart situation similar and allows for these huge moves

132
NUGT hit all posted scalp trgts, holding for higher trgts above these ones, the remaining nugt.
3% scalp gain atm, from buy earlier today

1251
uvxy 838 stop

1247
half nugt off for quick 1% at 10788 near 1080 trgt, holding rest scalp  for higher trgt. will buy back on pb

1237
obviously not shooting for 1065 trgt lol...but needs to get over that resist level for higher,,think it will get over it hence hte buy, last 1059

1235
1065, 1079 1092 are nugt initial trgts,higher for swing of course

1233
raised stop on UVXY to 8.40...its moved nice tho NUGT crashed in last week

12:31
scalping nugt 1062

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

mon thoughts

3:33
wow what a time to be travelling LOL
nugt rough move down and didnt move up before UVXY as expected.
UVXY did just hit its posted target 1 from 2 days ago tho

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

844am
. travelling for next several days, only trading sporadically. =Chris

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

215
testing now the 1587 supp trgt..impt test intraday ES...scalps would take off half here or tighten stops

158
wow...ultra low volume on daily GDX today,at least so far
no major selling on gdx despite red candle

156
661, 670 UVXY resist. major resist 693 intraday scalp

154
1587 es support, it looks breakable lower but remains support until broken

152
72% short signal rang on ES at 1590, uvxy long 647
last es 1589.50 and may not bounce first this time

140
UVXY not making new lows. SPY testing its  highs

1210
659 and 674 resist on UVXY,,market makers

1204
in addition to us dollar, another catalyst for higher gdx nugt would be lower spx

1127
Inv Bank on IWM they have raised levels to 96.50 now, but the old levels usually hold on the first try
Inv Bank Buy level IWM is 91.00

1125
IWM 95 and 96 are the Inv Bank sell levels for past 5 days
usually stalls at those levels, Inv Bank not MM

1107
not sure it will happen today, but nugt and slv could see big moves up. us dollar DX   UUP still has lower to go

but good chance it will move today, nugt

1020
for now, order in to sell 75% of NUGT at 23.20. may lower later. last 21.13

952
sold some UVXY at a loss and swapped for NUGT, in vse port

946
Inv Bank sell level on GDX: 3580, buy level 33.90

943
big 3min reversal in ERY too

943
NUGT starting its move in reaction to dollar now on 3min chart...watching to see if sustains

942
dollar is down. may see reactions in higher silver slv uslv gdx nugt today

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

402
CVX daily vol is potentially misleading if only looking at daily...

most of that vol on cvx came on the red 15min candle. but the daily green candle makes it look like buying volume

356
interesting volume on ERY here

350
out of uvxy breakeven scalp, holding swing

147
going out...see yall later...may exit the uvxy from my phone and wont be able to post here..same trgts...scalp not swing piece

135
ES trying the second pb on 3min chart now,,,watching to see lower low,,,takes 2-4 times on days like this

134
historically in a battle between TLT and SPY...tlt wins,,,swings mid term

133
april 5 high vol day on TLT was gap up and small candel, not a big red vol sell candle that day on gap up...followed by lower vol selling in 3 days since

smart money parked in treasuries for now, not DOW large caps?

131
TLT daily chart treasuries:
THAT is more of a "real" breakout imo than spx spy...with backtest now in TLT, to be followed by higher tlt again

129
first pb a whole 2 points on es 3min chart bought...next pb may give a lil lower now

121
scalp order to sell set at 683 uvxy in case of fast move, may sell 670...scalp piece NOT swing..swing trgt higher

108
72% short finally rang on ES here at 1583,,,downside may be limited as first pb usually bought on 3min charts,but rang

still have uvxy scalp from this level, swing from higher level

1247
same trgts in uvxy...starting with 670

1245
: 661 UVXY could work here...scalping it in my pers acct not in vse

1239
they r buying here...watching to see how much....again often they buy a lil n drop it more

1238
uvxy just hit MM buy level 661,,,

1221
hmm since last post...Inv Bank have set sell level #2 at 7.11, first still 683...the 711 is between the prior posted "expected thinking" of 699 and 733 LOL...still need to watch 699 tho imo

1219
lowered the ask too ...to 668...possibly in order to hold price down so they can buy some
their actions in this case suggest a bias to buy uvxy,not short it

1217
661 uvxy...MM interested in buying a little there .... raised the bid
however often when bid is raised, and its in downtrend, the MM just 'buy a little" then step aside to buy more lower,,,not always an immediate bounce but it can "stop the bleeding'

1214
60min chart on us dollar...imo would have been better for dollar bulls if went sideways or down more, instead of this small up move...it suggests that a lower low instead will be made on the dollar now...if that lower low comes then silver gdx and nugt often move higher

1211
UVXY 3 min chart...confirming the MM levels activity...only prob is the chart comes after fact but at least confirms the algo


1207
IF the uvxy stays over 683 for more than 15min (if it can get up there LOL)....that could prove significant for higher... and a close over that also may be signif...these Inv Bank level usually hold on the first try almost always,,,penetrating and holding over them is bullish

i have a feeling that it will be penetrated, and a new Inv Bank level will be set at 699 then 733...but feelings arent tradeable

1202
first pullback on spy 3min chart will prob be bought today,,,starting one possibly now
 then poss short the bounce...for patient intraday lol
agressive could short it right here, at 1580,,,i'm on side tho

one could also scalp the pb long but i'm not...too much work lol

1200
 Inv Banks are MUCH more active btw in the vix ...vxx and uvxy xiv. the Inv Banks usually sit further away from MM

1149
see that 3min shoot star on UVXY? typical to see that when MM selling,,,as mentinoed b4 expected to sell here,,thats one confirmation that they did if not access to fancy algos

1005
GDX: inv bank lowered sell level to 36.50 from 3700, thus new trgt is 3650 and stall then higher,swing

1002
NUGT GDX have pulled back and are good buys for half size positions at this price imo,,,i'm not adding because i bought yest at close (at higher price :(

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

400
bought nugt again
i would like nugt to pb....is ok if it does...just wanted some again due to strength
will add if nugt pb else ride with existing position

349
IWM lagging means "risk trade off"..."defensve longs only"
also temp parking spot for funds

349
IF   IF  roadmap continues,,,spx should get tired coming hours days and pull back not nec crash

348
so far all of this action on spx is following 60m chart roadmap,,,makes sense and still bearish imo and expected this as possibility

330
4pm swing system does NOT use "layering" or "add to existing positions". It just takes the initial entry and goes 100% for simplicity. But if it DID layer, it would be giving an "add spx shorts at 4pm today" here at ES 1566. posted perform record for it b4,,has 80% wins from 2000 and 2007...this "could be" one of the 20% losers but system remains on SHORT SPX ....

322
no guarantee but has worked many times, on uvxy gdx nugt AKS etc etc
KISS strategy

321
UVXY. another one of those "too far from 5 period daily moving average. Almost always bounces, even in downtrend. trgt 7.30

see higher uvxy than 730 but thats the "downtrend" bounce trgt given its below the 5 MA

259
might add some FAZ at the close, if XLF looks right

234
notice IWM is not re-testing its prior daily highs,,,continues weaker

232
ES now testing prior high. spx going for all time high

104
revised...707 and 711 likely

103
uvxy should do mini test of 707 last 700
mini test...1% lol

1256
1562.50 ES... 72% short rang on ES, intraday scalp sig

1251
but if one looks at DX us dollar futures, can see that pattern there

1250
if that pattern were at bottom, it would be bear continuation pattern called 5 methods, but its not that since not at bottom...but still bearish
...3 methods is continuation pattern, not a reversal pattern

1248
see SPY 60m chart? big red candle followed by 3 small green ones? its a bearish pattern...doesnt mean new highs wont be made over red candle high, but bearish candles

thus far, the expected "sideways upish" from earlier is happening on spy ...will get tired in coming hours

1224
ery 3470 trgt for now and order to sell there

1215
IWM investment Bank buy sell levels 9000/9500
i just noticed that Inv Bank levels on IWM are same as april 3..v interesting...exact same levels that date

1210
look at GDX...rejected almost exactly at Inv Bank level posted yest and this morn 930am

1205
so looking to buy pb in gdx nugt, for subsequent move up to 3699 gdx

1204
tomorrows GDX trgt: 36.99 sell, 34.97 buy (Curr Investment Bank levels)

1203
imo: ERY has more room in it than DUST....the 60min on ery is more tired on down than dust is

1201
theres gdx at trgt...watching reactions now...it will usually stall in the prior Investment Bank sell area...

1200
y: *ouch* figures ery drops rite after i buy lol

1159
last 3616 gdx...getting close to that 3630ish area...v

1153
bought ery

1126
MM still have not dropped bids in gdx..same as b4 or near there

1123
took gains on aks.
will re-eval entry later

1119
AKS going to hit resist at 329 and 333...last 324

1115
dollar at support,,,if bounces thenlower gdx...but if it breaks...then 3630 gdx

1115
: aggressive could short GDX here or dust...i'm waiting tho
3606
based on us dollar
scalp quick hands trade

1107
watch for 8230 dollar futures dx,,,and may be wise to get out of silver gdx nugt when dx gets there, if actively trading it swing

1052
724 and 735 uvxy mini trgts
may sell some not all if able at 735...pretty heavy resist there on first try...but the stuff can move fsat so will give chance to pierce

1048
3552 watching gdx...could go much lower but wanna see if it goes there, and reactino...sideways may be buyable

1045
y: 2360 exit on NUGT ....11% plus gain

1041
GDX  susceptible to pullback to 3552 so finger near the sell button now....

1039
easy to see simple horiz resist here prior high fdx 36.00ish

1037
stalling here at Inv Level  1 also normal..watching

1037
look for a stall if it gets to 36.30ish today...that's an "old" Investment Bank sell level....they tend to stick on the first try

could see a pretty big pb there, but a bullish one to a higher low

1036
gdx "should" go sideways now on 15min chart...the normal thing would be a rising wedge (higher but getting tired),,,or a bull flag (lower but still bullish since its a flag and poss buy opp if flag presents)....may be exiting second half of nugt if it goes to a wedge

1035
next 4 candles on GDX 15min chart impt...

1029
IF gdx can hit 3620 today it would be a huge move. one of biggest daily candles on chart. i will exit nugt if it can get up there...still awhile away...it does look like its going for that level and higher eventually for swings, just may pb first...watching...

1025
SPY SPX cash charts: have another 4 hours of side/up bias on them,,,,may not move up much, will see...after that, should be getting tired and pb....the larger pb likely not come until after at least 4 hours, unless velocity changes,,,at such time the uvxy gift trade entry should kick in

1018
2293 NUGT,,,,3563 exactly now on GDX :)
: took half off..made the trgt close enough  •• 

1005
"trading tip of the day": Successfull strategies are NOT universal across sectors and vehicles
: a strat that works well for swings on SPX will NOT WORK on swings long in gold silver for example

 this is proven through extensive backtesting...spx shows great returns, while commodoties silver show big losses

so always have in mind the vehicle and sector u r trading NOT JUST the strat

also,,,,within the same sector or vehicle (eg. SPY), the successfull short strategy is NOT simply the inverse of the successfull long strat

so if using upro for long spx and spxu for short spy,,,one would NOT use the same formula on upro and spxu...doesnt work.. the short strategy generally requires a slower entry, and generates less signals short, due to the nature of the equities markets

just some ideas....for those that like to develop their own strategies

early in my algorithm development career....i thought a strategy was invalid because it worked great for long but gave losses on shorts. i expected same strat to work both ways, at the time i thought it was logical...took awhile to learn that success is ok one way, and develop an alt strat for shorts LOL

i believe this is a main factor in why so many retail traders lose money

in general, the above applies more to swings than scalps, but does apply accross all time periods

1002
3500  3512  and 3530 are the MM buy levels, gdx

958
: gdx at the heavy resist area now...3542...watching to see if it can push thru...
MM are buying it here now...but smaller MM are trading it...it is possible accum long by MM here, for the next push up...they hold the ask down in order to let them buy. hope that makes sense.

957
silver is going to form a bear diverg on its 60min charts....will exit silver later...but it still has another 2-12 trading hours left in it...and we all know ...biggest moves come when? near the end....

954
theres pretty heavy resist at 3545 gdx if it getst there...but reaction is impt...does it just go sideways ...or pb?  watching...but many MM sitting there to sell...at least right now...however still see the 3563 trgt poss today since it made such a sustained move at open thus far....trgts look close together in gdx but in nugt they move 2-5% LOL

950
3544 3563 are gdx next trgts intraday..last 3532,,,with buy levels at 3512 and 35.30

941
im going to sell half my nugt at or near there if able...

940
gdx next Investment Bank Level is 35.63..so it will prob test the 35.50ish prior high

938
From 12:23 PM yesterday
gdx should test higher 3524 and stall poss
it hit close to it, 3522. at this time of day it could break it for next higher trot


936
yesterdays posted Investment Bank level on UVXY was.... 6.99...once again it hit the inv bank level a  day later...keeps happening

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:

http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".