Monday, April 8, 2013

mon thoughts

354
: going to exit half the silver, keep half

346
after yest candle, it should have gone to 1525 lower at least, instead of this push up...to "let in" some people....this action suggests instead distribution bearishly, and the "good price" is now under 1525 and likely to fall harder now

345
not usually this bearish on spx,,,but this is stretched
not usually this bearish on spx,,,but this is stretched

344
LOTS of resist now in ES next 10 points above here...it may push up but its a gift short opp imo
even if it makes another 10 points

332
MM still buying silver 2 cents from curr price...so trying to hold this here...still may exit half of it

327
silver is now testing 15min resist...MM have enough bid under it to break it higher...if they hold the bids...will watch MM to see what they do and may exit half of silver depending

233
see that huge bull diverg in GDX daily chart?
feb 20, march 5, and april 3 lows on price: rsi or your preferred indic

214
UVXY may want to go as low as 6.99 Invesment Bank buy level...watching for now

213
ES has just finally hit the 1553 trgt higher from this morn. but letting it go higher if it can, before any uvxy

117
VSE port might require taking profits in 25-50%  of USLV in order to buy the uvxy,,

116
if ES can get up to 1553,,,UVXY should be a nice entry, gift trade opp in uvxy, will prob add uvxy if so

1224
ES just hit the 1545.50 "reaction" target from prior post...watching now if this breaks more lower to trigger the 82% reactino, or pops higher

1223
gdx should test higher 3524 and stall poss

1222
no guarantees, it would need to continue and persist in that behavior, but thats what is often seen at "bottoms" as the bigger banks decide they want to start accum and price is now "low enough"

1220
GDX has some MM accumulating long, but other MM selling...they are going over each other LOL...bullish for swings, but this usually prevents a fast move up, UNTIL UNLESS the trading MM stop trading and raise their asks. their is support with bids close to price, but trading MM holding it down with their ask, atm...while other MM and Inv Banks have higher sell levles in gdx nugt

GDX what's interesting is, at least right now, the Inv Banks are paying more than the MM...thats unusual, usually the Inv Banks patiently wait lower, under the MM levels

1212
3min warning..es

1208
if es hits 1545.50...may see the 72% reaction kick in for lower

1201
SLV 3min moving up on chart...dollar down,,,nugt may follow up

1156
750 uvxy trgt 1, then 762, 773,,,,where theres signif resist at 773 on first try

1154
72% es short just rang. 1547 es.  uvxy 738

1143
added nugt here. per plan from this morn.

1030
GDX selling of here but its acting as expected, and selloff may present a buying opp...its not harsh, not adding yet but may add more later nugt gdx...same plan as 9am just update

1018
trade the plan strat:  earlier today at 35.01...GDX was in no mans land and could have gone either up or down and still be valid chart pattern. waited to see what it did...it went up...so will now look to buy dips on gdx if they present, unless it goes for Inv Level trgt first, in such case will take gain on existing nugt and look to reload later

silver positions should move similarly

1015
may take another 4-8 candles on the 15min chart...but looks like 60m silver will break to upside

1014
Look at Silver SLV USLV chart: VERY encouraging for silver longs, if one looks at the 60 min chart and 15min chart

1012
lol GDX made it to initial resist area 3514/3527 while typing...watching reactinos here now

1008
Inv Bank sell level GDX at 3580/3600 sov v good chance of more of a stall at 3580/3600 trgt, see higher after that but almost always theres a stall at Inv Bank levels vs MM levels, as we have repeatedly seen on both the buy and sell levels when hit

1008
GDX nugt trades:  gdx likely going to hit 3514 and stall in that area, then a pb may be buyable for swing. Initial trgt on gdx would be 3580 but imo a stall in the 3514/3527 area likely first

1005
for those that like to trade both ways, an ES long opp will likely present, tho NOT YET imo....but i will not take it, since right now i'm just trading in one direction shortside... i prefer only trading in the direction of my swings

957
Glad to see ES bouncing a little here....if it can get a lil higher it will give opp to add shorts or add uvxy

954
obviously MAIN support on ES is 1530,,,if THAT breaks and hold, ES likely headed lower to 1525
then 1502

952
4 min later...:) theres the mini break...running stops on es...watching to see if sustains or bounce

948
*** 1 point bounce and already stall...ES looks dangerous here...may break lower.....

948
higher 7.72 is Invesment Bank sell level 1 on UVXY

948
uvxy 758,,,it hit close enough to 760 trgt if scalping it

947
heres expected test of es 1545 posted b4...watching reaction now...failure to hold this would be bad for ES...it should bounce but this time of day could also easily break lower

bias for swings remains short,regardless, imo

944
760 uvxy trgt resist last 747

939
es 1547 last...likely to try lower for 1545 test prior low
which would put uvxy higher...

935
looks like NUGT is going to give a buying opp this morning...waiting on it...not in rush for nugt or uvxy since i already have both, this would be to add more...if one did NOT have any, good prices imo here

930
if ES hits 1551/1552 by 945am i'll prob short ...using uvxy ...also maybe nugt and gdx might present buy long opps close to the open

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

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