0348
exit 1574 SWC,,,lock small profit, 13 cents or 1%
0307
shorting SWC 1587
0304
stopped out sso
0301
stop sso 4067 just over cost 4060,, no sense losing anything here,,can alway buy back
0258
i will prob sell sso at ES 1159 for profit
0250
ES 3min is coiling now....triangle
0232
spx "should" get one more push up, last 1151
0207
spx 3min bull diverg....
0153
sso 49.59 looks good here for short tewrm trade,, still looking for short entry later
0113
now i am getting close to a short setup in spx,,,no entry yet,,, last 1151
0106
BBL broke support, headed down here
1253
i'm on sidelines in spx and qqqq until the 15 and 60 can complement and support each other, took small profit on sso not much, am now short BBL
1245
shorting BBL at 58.96
1230
out of rest of sso for now
1155
lock some profits, 25% shares, limit filled, about 0.66%
1151
only 25% shares,,,expecting it go over that higher
1148
taking partial profits sso 4120 to lock something, if filled, for 27 cents per share
1147
1170 spx seem a stretch but charts suggest spx might want it,,,
1139
else stops should trigger for a retest of HOD
1136
1158 ES stall would be normal, last 1156
1136
there is the expected break over es 1156,,,now watching to see reactino and if it holds,
1119
but for now my charts suggest last ES 1156 high will break higher
1119
ES 3min has 3 lower highs,,, if it does not stabilize then i will exit the long sso,,, watching now to see if last lowest high is broken higher or not
1112
still long sso now, tho could exit here at small profit/breakeven
1111
i likely will not have a shot setup for a holding over 20 minutes, before noon
1029
40.22 stop sso
1022
sso stop 3993
1018
VIX looks like bear flag
1012
spx may want 1171, hard to get targets in this turbulence,, looking to short when the 15min charts weaken with 60s
1005
stop 39.40 for now in sso
1005
sso 40.93 trying...want short later
Monday
8:11 AM
ES is up a whopping 50 points (4.5%), but this rally was expected. Below are 9:54, 10:54, 3:11. 3:16 coments I made on Friday warning that the Friday move down had all the markings of a bear trap with a subsequent rally. That's why I exited my swing shorts. Looking for new entry points again.
Friday 0316:this has the characteristics of a bear trap i still think,, lure in shorts then make them cover
Friday 0311i'm not adding new swing shorts here,, this could be a temp bear trap for 1-2 days... i'm still bearish just not wanting to add here
Friday 1054 i remain bearish mid-term, but a crazy rally up to 1172/1186 spx cannot be discounted (not today),,, imho,,, i plan to short rallies at the appropiate areas
Friday 954 my charts suggests that VIX needs to correct down a little and find support, then we can get a better spx move down later when the vix finds support and rebounds
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, May 10, 2010
Friday, May 7, 2010
Friday ramblings / Thurs eve futures
0338
VIX made a new high today, spx did not make a new low
0318
prog trade just triggered long qld, and close QID for small 1.02% profit (tho i didnt take those trades)
0316
this has the characteristics of a bear trap i still think,, lure in shorts then make them cover
0311
i'm not adding new swing shorts here,, this could be a temp bear trap for 1-2 days... i'm still bearish just not wanting to add here
0305
VZ still "should" go up
0302
they r headfaking left and right here
0248
charts suggest VZ might be good for one more push up,,,2852ish from 2827
0244
qqqq back near 4881,,,,the 4852 cover profit would have worked well
0234
still long VZ,,trade premise still valid
0234
daytrade short i would cover here an look to reenter,,,decent profit here,,,could be headfake n pivot up
0220
i have a buy program warning good for next 27 minutes...warning only no program ,,, the warning have worked pretty well thus far
0207
my program trading sys triggered a sell short QQQQ 45.81 but i didn't take it....turned that one off today lol
201
i am going long strong DOW components and short on the weak ones instead of etfs today
143
picked up about 4.7% profit today long in meantime,,,all shorts closed yest
136
if VZ can get over 2837 then it should pop up some for daytrade, last 2830, cost 2823
128
in VZ long 28.23, paying premium, possible break higher setup
126
VZ long day 28.18 if filled limit
1251
3minute charts are too easily manipulated, the 60 min are more reliable imho
1251
i'm not using the 3minute charts in this environment for anything except timing entries and exits. the 60 minute spx still suggests the bias is up to me, at the moment,,,i still see more down later ,,, spx 1122
1200
vix is at a support level now, likely to break it lower to next level down
1152
stop 1108 on half of remaing AA (25%)
1149
taking 2% profits here on half of new AA, holding other half
1145
AA is beginning to coil now,,,,so watching for breakout up or down as day progresses, bias is up for now
1144
1184 stop on AA
1131
back in AA 1193
1121
stoped out at 1207 on remaing AA at 1207.
1118
QLD 5982 here could work stop 55.22 but i'm not taking it
1114
as expected below at 10:28, spx did find support at 1090 and popped back to 1118 or 38 points up
1113
taking 25% profits in AA here at 12.12,,,its at R so lock in a lil at 0.5% profit,,holding 75% shares
1111
a stall at 1211 AA and small decline is still ok,,,just over 1171 needed for now
1110
the second AA setup is a "breakout" setup
1107
i just got another "enter AA long" setup, this one safer, enter 1203 ,,,stop 11.71...but i'll keep my stop lower for now, mental stop now 1171 as AA stabilizes here
1057
but AA also has smaller poss BULL inv HS with 12.24 target.... watching both
1056
need to watch out for poss bear HeadShoulders in AA 3min....
1054
i remain bearish mid-term, but a crazy rally up to 1172/1186 spx cannot be discounted (not today),,, imho,,, i plan to short rallies at the appropiate areas
1052
my work suggests that AA is forming a base and should pop to the upside, but 12.10 must be hurdled to get any real action
1037
still in AA for now,,,wide stops
1028
spx may stall here ....theres support 1099 micro
1021
SPX 3 min bear M pattern
1020
i did no trades befre 10AM...let things settle a little,,, am in AA long but less shares and wider stops in this environment
1015
stop in AA mental 11.87,,,hard stop at 11.17
1014
doing AA LONG 12.05
1008
we are going to keep getting this whipsaw until the vix stabilizes and finds its support area
1001
i see a potential QLD trade but the stop must be around 56.50 vs 5960 curr price,,,, its NOT ready yet for me, just watching,,, could turn to QID fast lol
955
whipsaw until then
954
my charts suggests that VIX needs to correct down a little and find support, then we can get a better spx move down later when the vix finds support and rebounds
9:18 AM
it's interesting that the huge drop yesterday stopped right or near the feb low... we are going back down there in the days weeks ahead, i think
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
VIX made a new high today, spx did not make a new low
0318
prog trade just triggered long qld, and close QID for small 1.02% profit (tho i didnt take those trades)
0316
this has the characteristics of a bear trap i still think,, lure in shorts then make them cover
0311
i'm not adding new swing shorts here,, this could be a temp bear trap for 1-2 days... i'm still bearish just not wanting to add here
0305
VZ still "should" go up
0302
they r headfaking left and right here
0248
charts suggest VZ might be good for one more push up,,,2852ish from 2827
0244
qqqq back near 4881,,,,the 4852 cover profit would have worked well
0234
still long VZ,,trade premise still valid
0234
daytrade short i would cover here an look to reenter,,,decent profit here,,,could be headfake n pivot up
0220
i have a buy program warning good for next 27 minutes...warning only no program ,,, the warning have worked pretty well thus far
0207
my program trading sys triggered a sell short QQQQ 45.81 but i didn't take it....turned that one off today lol
201
i am going long strong DOW components and short on the weak ones instead of etfs today
143
picked up about 4.7% profit today long in meantime,,,all shorts closed yest
136
if VZ can get over 2837 then it should pop up some for daytrade, last 2830, cost 2823
128
in VZ long 28.23, paying premium, possible break higher setup
126
VZ long day 28.18 if filled limit
1251
3minute charts are too easily manipulated, the 60 min are more reliable imho
1251
i'm not using the 3minute charts in this environment for anything except timing entries and exits. the 60 minute spx still suggests the bias is up to me, at the moment,,,i still see more down later ,,, spx 1122
1200
vix is at a support level now, likely to break it lower to next level down
1152
stop 1108 on half of remaing AA (25%)
1149
taking 2% profits here on half of new AA, holding other half
1145
AA is beginning to coil now,,,,so watching for breakout up or down as day progresses, bias is up for now
1144
1184 stop on AA
1131
back in AA 1193
1121
stoped out at 1207 on remaing AA at 1207.
1118
QLD 5982 here could work stop 55.22 but i'm not taking it
1114
as expected below at 10:28, spx did find support at 1090 and popped back to 1118 or 38 points up
1113
taking 25% profits in AA here at 12.12,,,its at R so lock in a lil at 0.5% profit,,holding 75% shares
1111
a stall at 1211 AA and small decline is still ok,,,just over 1171 needed for now
1110
the second AA setup is a "breakout" setup
1107
i just got another "enter AA long" setup, this one safer, enter 1203 ,,,stop 11.71...but i'll keep my stop lower for now, mental stop now 1171 as AA stabilizes here
1057
but AA also has smaller poss BULL inv HS with 12.24 target.... watching both
1056
need to watch out for poss bear HeadShoulders in AA 3min....
1054
i remain bearish mid-term, but a crazy rally up to 1172/1186 spx cannot be discounted (not today),,, imho,,, i plan to short rallies at the appropiate areas
1052
my work suggests that AA is forming a base and should pop to the upside, but 12.10 must be hurdled to get any real action
1037
still in AA for now,,,wide stops
1028
spx may stall here ....theres support 1099 micro
1021
SPX 3 min bear M pattern
1020
i did no trades befre 10AM...let things settle a little,,, am in AA long but less shares and wider stops in this environment
1015
stop in AA mental 11.87,,,hard stop at 11.17
1014
doing AA LONG 12.05
1008
we are going to keep getting this whipsaw until the vix stabilizes and finds its support area
1001
i see a potential QLD trade but the stop must be around 56.50 vs 5960 curr price,,,, its NOT ready yet for me, just watching,,, could turn to QID fast lol
955
whipsaw until then
954
my charts suggests that VIX needs to correct down a little and find support, then we can get a better spx move down later when the vix finds support and rebounds
9:18 AM
it's interesting that the huge drop yesterday stopped right or near the feb low... we are going back down there in the days weeks ahead, i think
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)
0358
6102 exit qld from 6086 (i didnt
trade that)
0349
i exited IBM today just now for a few cents over breakeven, not holding swing
0343
IBM stop 123.93,,,either it holds here or i'm out with small loss of 0.70%....not taking chances in this craziness
0337
QLD at 60.80 has a setup but i'm not taking it...enough for 1 day,, staying out
0328
well this is a good reminder of how important stops are,,,those "emergency" hard stops set below our "mental stops"
0323
i still have 1050, 1044, 925, 875 spx as targets,,, 925 only if 1044 doesnt hold,,,will have to see reaction if we get 1044,, same targets as last week.
0314
STOP on IBM at 121.73 in case we get another surge, to limit any loss to a small one
0300
i'm very surprised,,,as bearish as i have been the last 7 days, consistently shorting swing,,,, i did not think we would see this type of 2007 action again in 2010,, i'm still surprised at over 500 down on the DOW
0256
wow ibm now only red 1% from 3% LOL crazy
0252
VIX just paused at 4/17 high, resistance,,,notice the immediate correction the next day (down vix) 4/18
0249
DOW down 691
0246
QQQQ hit my 42.00 target,,,,last 4379 from 4155 low
0245
grr i should NOT have sold all my qid day,,, still have swings short spxu
0244
DOW down 500,,, even over that 300 mentioned b4
0240
IBM might want 121.50 but charts suggest it will bounce before that
0239
i will do LONG IBM 125.17,,, will hold a small piece of that swing ,,, SMALL
0227
i THINK that should be it....bounce up then maybe close near low,,,but think it should hold here....1129 spx, but i have NO chart confirmation on that
0223
taking 4% day qid, 6% TYP profits now,,,, all out of qid typ for now day
0222
VIX at target....watching CLOSEfor reaction...right here
0221
ok VIX target 3175 and that will likely put a lid on the decline, last 3105
0219
DOW went over the -200,,,down 235 now
0213
spx 1115 is strong support spx,,,last 1137
0210
took some qid profits 17.21,,,,still short via the spxu sds qqqq and 25% more daytrade QID
0207
17.23 i will likely sell some qid for 2% profit
0203
but still short,,,only slowing not stopped....stop tite at 17.04 on the QID
0202
BUY program there...surprisingly,,,,could stabilize here,,charts stabilizing now
0155
wow QQQQ daily candles are
BELOW the lower bollinger band again today,,, 2
candles in a row, rare
0144
rasing stop to 1708 from 1703 on half shares,,,holding other half
0141
ok qqqq at support here at 4735,,,watching reaction
0135
a clear 5 waves down in ES 15min, with us in wave 5,,,,
0127
stop 17.03 on half shares in qid to lock 1% profit
0124
now THIS could finally give that elusive 60minute "qqqq bounce for long play" setup,,, after more down, not yet,,,more down first
0118
newest QID is in profit zone tho...broke for a new high of day, up 0.95% now
0115
stop .51 kft,, took loss there, 0.52%
0106
VIX is in a bearish rising wedge,,, but we all know those can be volatile and break up before down...watching that,,, also the wedge can convert to a bull vix channel (bearish for spx)...so watching reactions
1258
KFT trying to move higher,,,,29.85 is first target ,,,should stall there, will prob take some profits if able there,,,last 29.67
1248
QID is now testing HOD....watching reaction,,,still in qid
1238
in QID 16.87
1233
BUY Program warning for KFT only
1224
if KFT get 2970 it should give a nice pop up
1221
KFT 29.61 limit filled, long
1218
LONG in KFT 29.61 if able
1200
out of last sds breakeven (2 cents profit)...that one didnt pop
1148
problem for bulls is........the 60 min is NOT DIVERGING<,,,, it is also forming higher hi in the rsi,,,tho macd suspect
1146
looking for entry point LONG in MCD,,,, the bulls deserve a break today
1141
i STILL do not have the "nice" 60min bull divergence in spx to try long, nor do other indicators suggest it for me right here,,, should change after this last push down if it comes
1132
i see one more push down, then possible entry for long day,,, sds last 3138
1128
possible inv HS forming in ES 15min
1124
in more spxu 30.52 now
1119
locking 3% profits on spxu from yesterdays swing, on half of shares here,,, thats the new one from yest,,,still qqqq short from 5012
1117
should get a small bounce here at least 4863 qqqq
1109
taking some qid profits on 75% of shares here,,,think it will drop back down to re-enter,,, at 16.81 (only 0.75% profit on that one),,, still in the spxu swing from yesterday tho
1103
bulls are weaker here... vix "should have" backtested back down 15minutes ago and did not,,,, qqqq "should have" tried 4807 even 4821 and couldnt
1055
an spx 1158 on this first try would suggest more weakness (or headfake,,,watching_
1054
4807 is qqqq Resis too
1049
heres the expected stall in 4792 qqqq,,,, charts still say down after any upmove
1047
we got that expected close es under 1158 15 n 60 min cndl, and downside followed as expected, ES last 1155 and falling after poss bounce here
1046
qqqq 4797,,, prob 4793 then up then selloff,,sell program warning (same signal setup as yesterdays)
1044
the next move down should set up the "better" 60min bull diverg i mentioned yest,,,then maybe long for me (but only day for now long_)
1038
my spx target still same...if 1157 breaks then 1150 (jan hi, march low)
1033
qqqq prob stall at 4793, last 4804
1030
possible QID asc triangle and cup handle bull formations in 3min (bearish qqqq and spx)
1027
i just got a momen shift warning,, from up to down bias, incomplete just warning, with a crouching tiger bearish 78% (usually 87% is actionable),, qqqq at 4810
1025
if ES gets a 15 or 60 min close under 1159,,, dangerous for longs
1023
ES 15min has some nasty bear candles, shoot stars long tails, BUT those candles always need confirmation, with a close BELOW the low of the star candel
1016
hmmm now there is a poss bear HS 3min forming in 2- 3min qqqq, only half done, left shoulder and head
1011
,this whipsaw is typical with these chart patterns,,,the 15 and 60 not aligned so up n down
1011
as expectd, qqqq have declined some,,, still could go more....went 4832 to 4817
1007
there were some large green blocks,,,, MM may have to bring it down some before more up (so they can cover their shorts when they sold to the green sales)
1006
rigtht at a resistance point now 1168 spx,, 4830 qqqq
0939
i'm still looking to enter long but waiting for (1) 60 min bull diverg to get stronger, its weak now, or (2) wait for 60min to strengthen with 15min aligned to it
0934
in QID 16.70, this one is early entry and might be short lived
0859
spx should hold 1152/48ish,,, the 1/19 high and 3/22 low,,might want 1150 before bounce/backtest
0854
ES is down 7 points here.... why i chose to hold some swing shorts last night (wednesday),,, same as tues night,,, might get opp today to go long for a little while only,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
6102 exit qld from 6086 (i didnt
trade that)
0349
i exited IBM today just now for a few cents over breakeven, not holding swing
0343
IBM stop 123.93,,,either it holds here or i'm out with small loss of 0.70%....not taking chances in this craziness
0337
QLD at 60.80 has a setup but i'm not taking it...enough for 1 day,, staying out
0328
well this is a good reminder of how important stops are,,,those "emergency" hard stops set below our "mental stops"
0323
i still have 1050, 1044, 925, 875 spx as targets,,, 925 only if 1044 doesnt hold,,,will have to see reaction if we get 1044,, same targets as last week.
0314
STOP on IBM at 121.73 in case we get another surge, to limit any loss to a small one
0300
i'm very surprised,,,as bearish as i have been the last 7 days, consistently shorting swing,,,, i did not think we would see this type of 2007 action again in 2010,, i'm still surprised at over 500 down on the DOW
0256
wow ibm now only red 1% from 3% LOL crazy
0252
VIX just paused at 4/17 high, resistance,,,notice the immediate correction the next day (down vix) 4/18
0249
DOW down 691
0246
QQQQ hit my 42.00 target,,,,last 4379 from 4155 low
0245
grr i should NOT have sold all my qid day,,, still have swings short spxu
0244
DOW down 500,,, even over that 300 mentioned b4
0240
IBM might want 121.50 but charts suggest it will bounce before that
0239
i will do LONG IBM 125.17,,, will hold a small piece of that swing ,,, SMALL
0227
i THINK that should be it....bounce up then maybe close near low,,,but think it should hold here....1129 spx, but i have NO chart confirmation on that
0223
taking 4% day qid, 6% TYP profits now,,,, all out of qid typ for now day
0222
VIX at target....watching CLOSEfor reaction...right here
0221
ok VIX target 3175 and that will likely put a lid on the decline, last 3105
0219
DOW went over the -200,,,down 235 now
0213
spx 1115 is strong support spx,,,last 1137
0210
took some qid profits 17.21,,,,still short via the spxu sds qqqq and 25% more daytrade QID
0207
17.23 i will likely sell some qid for 2% profit
0203
but still short,,,only slowing not stopped....stop tite at 17.04 on the QID
0202
BUY program there...surprisingly,,,,could stabilize here,,charts stabilizing now
0155
wow QQQQ daily candles are
BELOW the lower bollinger band again today,,, 2
candles in a row, rare
0144
rasing stop to 1708 from 1703 on half shares,,,holding other half
0141
ok qqqq at support here at 4735,,,watching reaction
0135
a clear 5 waves down in ES 15min, with us in wave 5,,,,
0127
stop 17.03 on half shares in qid to lock 1% profit
0124
now THIS could finally give that elusive 60minute "qqqq bounce for long play" setup,,, after more down, not yet,,,more down first
0118
newest QID is in profit zone tho...broke for a new high of day, up 0.95% now
0115
stop .51 kft,, took loss there, 0.52%
0106
VIX is in a bearish rising wedge,,, but we all know those can be volatile and break up before down...watching that,,, also the wedge can convert to a bull vix channel (bearish for spx)...so watching reactions
1258
KFT trying to move higher,,,,29.85 is first target ,,,should stall there, will prob take some profits if able there,,,last 29.67
1248
QID is now testing HOD....watching reaction,,,still in qid
1238
in QID 16.87
1233
BUY Program warning for KFT only
1224
if KFT get 2970 it should give a nice pop up
1221
KFT 29.61 limit filled, long
1218
LONG in KFT 29.61 if able
1200
out of last sds breakeven (2 cents profit)...that one didnt pop
1148
problem for bulls is........the 60 min is NOT DIVERGING<,,,, it is also forming higher hi in the rsi,,,tho macd suspect
1146
looking for entry point LONG in MCD,,,, the bulls deserve a break today
1141
i STILL do not have the "nice" 60min bull divergence in spx to try long, nor do other indicators suggest it for me right here,,, should change after this last push down if it comes
1132
i see one more push down, then possible entry for long day,,, sds last 3138
1128
possible inv HS forming in ES 15min
1124
in more spxu 30.52 now
1119
locking 3% profits on spxu from yesterdays swing, on half of shares here,,, thats the new one from yest,,,still qqqq short from 5012
1117
should get a small bounce here at least 4863 qqqq
1109
taking some qid profits on 75% of shares here,,,think it will drop back down to re-enter,,, at 16.81 (only 0.75% profit on that one),,, still in the spxu swing from yesterday tho
1103
bulls are weaker here... vix "should have" backtested back down 15minutes ago and did not,,,, qqqq "should have" tried 4807 even 4821 and couldnt
1055
an spx 1158 on this first try would suggest more weakness (or headfake,,,watching_
1054
4807 is qqqq Resis too
1049
heres the expected stall in 4792 qqqq,,,, charts still say down after any upmove
1047
we got that expected close es under 1158 15 n 60 min cndl, and downside followed as expected, ES last 1155 and falling after poss bounce here
1046
qqqq 4797,,, prob 4793 then up then selloff,,sell program warning (same signal setup as yesterdays)
1044
the next move down should set up the "better" 60min bull diverg i mentioned yest,,,then maybe long for me (but only day for now long_)
1038
my spx target still same...if 1157 breaks then 1150 (jan hi, march low)
1033
qqqq prob stall at 4793, last 4804
1030
possible QID asc triangle and cup handle bull formations in 3min (bearish qqqq and spx)
1027
i just got a momen shift warning,, from up to down bias, incomplete just warning, with a crouching tiger bearish 78% (usually 87% is actionable),, qqqq at 4810
1025
if ES gets a 15 or 60 min close under 1159,,, dangerous for longs
1023
ES 15min has some nasty bear candles, shoot stars long tails, BUT those candles always need confirmation, with a close BELOW the low of the star candel
1016
hmmm now there is a poss bear HS 3min forming in 2- 3min qqqq, only half done, left shoulder and head
1011
,this whipsaw is typical with these chart patterns,,,the 15 and 60 not aligned so up n down
1011
as expectd, qqqq have declined some,,, still could go more....went 4832 to 4817
1007
there were some large green blocks,,,, MM may have to bring it down some before more up (so they can cover their shorts when they sold to the green sales)
1006
rigtht at a resistance point now 1168 spx,, 4830 qqqq
0939
i'm still looking to enter long but waiting for (1) 60 min bull diverg to get stronger, its weak now, or (2) wait for 60min to strengthen with 15min aligned to it
0934
in QID 16.70, this one is early entry and might be short lived
0859
spx should hold 1152/48ish,,, the 1/19 high and 3/22 low,,might want 1150 before bounce/backtest
0854
ES is down 7 points here.... why i chose to hold some swing shorts last night (wednesday),,, same as tues night,,, might get opp today to go long for a little while only,
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Wednesday, May 5, 2010
Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)
0402
the swing short entered yesterday worked nicely, watching this one now... still short qqqq from 50.12 also
0401
i'm just dipping my toes in the water on that swing,,, 50% position size
0400
i was not stopped out. i remain short swing. took some profits thru day of course. lets see how the new spxu swing entry at 29.77 works (currently at breakeven on that one)
0359
also another doji or narrow range day or spin top wouldnt surprise me tomorrow
0358
spx could gap up in the morn, this is often seen with morning star patterns
0354
exiting faz now, above the stop, 1277, profits locked on rest of faz (cost 12.44)
0350
my target, later, is the february lows,,, 1044/47 spx
0337
faz stop changed to 1269 from 1272,,,give it some room, almost stopped out
0332
taking a little spxu here, 2977
0326
even in 60min spx is under the 20 and 50 MA,,, i'm waiting for any long swings,,,still see more downside 'in general",,,, i dont want to go against current downtrend
0325
yes morning star bullish candle today, but they work better when there are more red candels before it,,,, needs confirmation with a close tomorrow ABOVE todays high
0315
in coming days, not necessarily today
0314
the 60min does look oversold here but still see more downside when looking at daily, 60min, other inidicators... any thoughts ?????
0309
if i am not stopped on the 29.49 sds at 30.61 then i will hold longer, overnight
0307
sds from 29.49, stop 30.61,,,, can reload later if stopped, ,,, sds swing up 5%
0301
stop 12.71 on 25% of faz,,, stop breakeven on other 25% (50% gone).... 12.71 should still give 2.5% profit if stopped
0258
i'm holding the 50.12 qqqq shorts as a mid term trade, for weeks/months maybe
0257
qid sold,,,took profits,,, still have qqqq short n faz 50%
0251
3.93% profitr, taking 25% shares more off here in the faz,,, 3.93% profit,,, faz loss of 2% from this morning made up, still have qqqq short
0244
qqqq could hit 4731, a lower low, today...watching
0243
here is that stall,,,expected...still holding some shorts, having taken some profits
0239
Locking profits on some faz here at 2.66%,,,keeping rest for higher,,,in epxectation of the whipsaw
0238
a stall here and some whipsaw is not necessarily bullish,,,expecting stall and some more whipping around
0236
i'd like to see a lower low on the 60min to create a "real" bull diverg, then can maybe consider long day,,, not today it wont come
0234
FAZ up now.,.. close to covering the FAZ loss from this morning (nasty 2%ish cuz of gap)
0227
still only stage one sell here,,, stage 2 not even started, if it comes, will be more,,, the sell program warning is relatively good
0222
Marketmakers are dropping the ASK here (bearish)
0219
FAZ has a bull crouching tiger 87% with a hold of 1235
0216
here's the sell program, stage 1, from the warning 10 min ago
0215
the 133t chart qqqq has bear HS with three left shoulders lol
0211
15min charts are coiling now, could pop either way, bias down for now
0208
i have an "exit day longs" signal setup warming,,,fwiw,,, qqqq 4822 spx 1169
0200
i have a "sell program warning", no sell prog yet, just warning
149
vix looks bullish, bearish spx
144
that looked like a breakdown of the UTL in the 133t chart, then a backtest up
138
faz trade still valid, up a little here, waking up
120
cancelled more qqqq shorts,,,doing faz instead,,, 12.42 faz
111pm
4832 qqqq short could work, i'm already in tho, holding only to add at .43
1258
will add more qqqq shorts at 4843 if able, last 4823
1253
15min qqqq chart supports shorts in additino to the 3min HS
1250
3 minute bear HS in qqqq...
1244
qqqq first down trgt 4787
1243
i have a stay short qqqq setup, holding 15minute till end of day, not scalp
1218
i still like qqqq short,,,could exit here breakeven but staying in short
1207
qqqq 60min stoch trying to climb over 20 but usually pulls back on first try
1206
qqqq have a small rsi bear diverg in 3 min, with stoch over 80 in 15min
1136
in qqqq 4822 short looks good here, typ 7.71
1121
out of faz 1256, small profit/breakeven
1102
program trade, back in faz 12.53,
1050
there is much spx resistance in 1177 1178
1038
Today is the only day since March that SPY has OPENED under its lower bollinger band, with the poss exception of a minor open below it on Oct 2
1030
i was stopped out of faz, grr now its back up, but rules said to exit, so program exited.... will probably re-enter faz or fas today and recoup the loss,,,,,
1027
new entry/add to swing short setup could present in 15minutes maybe
1021
stopped out of faz prog trade at 12.70, loss 2.83%
1015
the bullish diverg in qqqq is not strong or fully developed yet, for a swing perspective, 60 min qqqq,,, no reason to cover shorts yet for me
1005
faz stop 1273 now
0954
faz stop 1263 now
0952
yesterday i mentioned that today we could see a big red candle instead of bounce,,,just like 1/21 and 1/22....could see selling today, certainly started bearish and gap unfilled
0945
FAZ back in the buy area, for a hold 15min-5 hours, not scalp,, stop 1257, will manually trail up
0940
no dips buy for me....vix next trgt 2922
0938
VIX at R here,,,could stall, poss spx bounce now but not going long
0932
in FAZ 13.06 program trade
0931
then 1050, 925, 875 if supports break but that remains to be seen
0930
my spx targets are 1165 and 1150, in round non-exact numbers
0904 am
also added qid late yest at 1652, that is not as high profit cuz added yest near close
9:00 AM
TYP cost 6.94, last 7.87, up 13% profits so far,,, short qqqq from 50.12, last 47.92
8:56 AM
ES now down 9 points. Swing shorts performing well.
7:08 AM
Futures ES are down 3.5 points now, no bounce yet from yesterday's decline,,, this is why I opted to keep some swing shorts overnight. conservative traders would take some profits pre-market.... i'll just hold
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
the swing short entered yesterday worked nicely, watching this one now... still short qqqq from 50.12 also
0401
i'm just dipping my toes in the water on that swing,,, 50% position size
0400
i was not stopped out. i remain short swing. took some profits thru day of course. lets see how the new spxu swing entry at 29.77 works (currently at breakeven on that one)
0359
also another doji or narrow range day or spin top wouldnt surprise me tomorrow
0358
spx could gap up in the morn, this is often seen with morning star patterns
0354
exiting faz now, above the stop, 1277, profits locked on rest of faz (cost 12.44)
0350
my target, later, is the february lows,,, 1044/47 spx
0337
faz stop changed to 1269 from 1272,,,give it some room, almost stopped out
0332
taking a little spxu here, 2977
0326
even in 60min spx is under the 20 and 50 MA,,, i'm waiting for any long swings,,,still see more downside 'in general",,,, i dont want to go against current downtrend
0325
yes morning star bullish candle today, but they work better when there are more red candels before it,,,, needs confirmation with a close tomorrow ABOVE todays high
0315
in coming days, not necessarily today
0314
the 60min does look oversold here but still see more downside when looking at daily, 60min, other inidicators... any thoughts ?????
0309
if i am not stopped on the 29.49 sds at 30.61 then i will hold longer, overnight
0307
sds from 29.49, stop 30.61,,,, can reload later if stopped, ,,, sds swing up 5%
0301
stop 12.71 on 25% of faz,,, stop breakeven on other 25% (50% gone).... 12.71 should still give 2.5% profit if stopped
0258
i'm holding the 50.12 qqqq shorts as a mid term trade, for weeks/months maybe
0257
qid sold,,,took profits,,, still have qqqq short n faz 50%
0251
3.93% profitr, taking 25% shares more off here in the faz,,, 3.93% profit,,, faz loss of 2% from this morning made up, still have qqqq short
0244
qqqq could hit 4731, a lower low, today...watching
0243
here is that stall,,,expected...still holding some shorts, having taken some profits
0239
Locking profits on some faz here at 2.66%,,,keeping rest for higher,,,in epxectation of the whipsaw
0238
a stall here and some whipsaw is not necessarily bullish,,,expecting stall and some more whipping around
0236
i'd like to see a lower low on the 60min to create a "real" bull diverg, then can maybe consider long day,,, not today it wont come
0234
FAZ up now.,.. close to covering the FAZ loss from this morning (nasty 2%ish cuz of gap)
0227
still only stage one sell here,,, stage 2 not even started, if it comes, will be more,,, the sell program warning is relatively good
0222
Marketmakers are dropping the ASK here (bearish)
0219
FAZ has a bull crouching tiger 87% with a hold of 1235
0216
here's the sell program, stage 1, from the warning 10 min ago
0215
the 133t chart qqqq has bear HS with three left shoulders lol
0211
15min charts are coiling now, could pop either way, bias down for now
0208
i have an "exit day longs" signal setup warming,,,fwiw,,, qqqq 4822 spx 1169
0200
i have a "sell program warning", no sell prog yet, just warning
149
vix looks bullish, bearish spx
144
that looked like a breakdown of the UTL in the 133t chart, then a backtest up
138
faz trade still valid, up a little here, waking up
120
cancelled more qqqq shorts,,,doing faz instead,,, 12.42 faz
111pm
4832 qqqq short could work, i'm already in tho, holding only to add at .43
1258
will add more qqqq shorts at 4843 if able, last 4823
1253
15min qqqq chart supports shorts in additino to the 3min HS
1250
3 minute bear HS in qqqq...
1244
qqqq first down trgt 4787
1243
i have a stay short qqqq setup, holding 15minute till end of day, not scalp
1218
i still like qqqq short,,,could exit here breakeven but staying in short
1207
qqqq 60min stoch trying to climb over 20 but usually pulls back on first try
1206
qqqq have a small rsi bear diverg in 3 min, with stoch over 80 in 15min
1136
in qqqq 4822 short looks good here, typ 7.71
1121
out of faz 1256, small profit/breakeven
1102
program trade, back in faz 12.53,
1050
there is much spx resistance in 1177 1178
1038
Today is the only day since March that SPY has OPENED under its lower bollinger band, with the poss exception of a minor open below it on Oct 2
1030
i was stopped out of faz, grr now its back up, but rules said to exit, so program exited.... will probably re-enter faz or fas today and recoup the loss,,,,,
1027
new entry/add to swing short setup could present in 15minutes maybe
1021
stopped out of faz prog trade at 12.70, loss 2.83%
1015
the bullish diverg in qqqq is not strong or fully developed yet, for a swing perspective, 60 min qqqq,,, no reason to cover shorts yet for me
1005
faz stop 1273 now
0954
faz stop 1263 now
0952
yesterday i mentioned that today we could see a big red candle instead of bounce,,,just like 1/21 and 1/22....could see selling today, certainly started bearish and gap unfilled
0945
FAZ back in the buy area, for a hold 15min-5 hours, not scalp,, stop 1257, will manually trail up
0940
no dips buy for me....vix next trgt 2922
0938
VIX at R here,,,could stall, poss spx bounce now but not going long
0932
in FAZ 13.06 program trade
0931
then 1050, 925, 875 if supports break but that remains to be seen
0930
my spx targets are 1165 and 1150, in round non-exact numbers
0904 am
also added qid late yest at 1652, that is not as high profit cuz added yest near close
9:00 AM
TYP cost 6.94, last 7.87, up 13% profits so far,,, short qqqq from 50.12, last 47.92
8:56 AM
ES now down 9 points. Swing shorts performing well.
7:08 AM
Futures ES are down 3.5 points now, no bounce yet from yesterday's decline,,, this is why I opted to keep some swing shorts overnight. conservative traders would take some profits pre-market.... i'll just hold
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday, May 4, 2010
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* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Tuesday's ramblings
0630
ESFutures continue lower toward the lower test targets.
0529
QID could see 16.63 afterhours tonite....
0527
there it goes.... 1170 broken....
0520
1170 looks like it wants to brea lower
0518
1166/67 possible if 1170 not held,,,retest those lows...
0515
watching to see if 1170 ES is held up until 8pm, or if it cracks under it,,, or move over 1174,,,
0434
i still see more downside in spx qqqq....the 15min and 60min charts can be used to time adding shorts (or long for that matter if things change)
0351
last trade,,, qid 1650 into close
0341
Out of QLD 65.41 from 65.70,,, loss
0306
autotrade out of QID 1647 from 1645 (breakeven), in QLD 65.70
0259
the last time that SPX tested its daily 50 MA, it moved down the very next day another 25 points,,, 2 big red candles. first 1148 to 1115 (down 33 points) on first day,,, then 1115 to 1090 next day (down 25pts).... 58 points in 2 days... something to consider,,,, from Jan 22 2010
0247
up in vix not spx
0246
VIX chart suggests a move up here
0220
In QID now, autotrade, at 1647
0219
stopped out qld,,,small profit
0217
QLD autotrader moved stop into profit zone, stop 6566,, QLD profit 0.58 now
0216
this 4845 qqqqq hard to crack ...still think goes higher over it,, charts suggest more "tries"
0210
i still seee more down for swing,,,,just dont know how much/if bounce will be,, this mkt has amazing ability to bounce when its not supposed to LOL
0209
cannot tell if candles r
continuation or bull hammers,,, macd stretched,
15min weakening,,, 15min rsi rising in UTL
0207
the 60min spx is getting hard to read now...could go either way,,which usually means chop sideways till mkt makes up its mind,, spx 1174
0204
VIX 3 min.... 5 mini waves down,,,abc next?
0202
i might cover the sds swing soon,,, hourly chart weakening.... not yet but weaker now,,,watchintg,,,, will look to re-enter short since more downside in coming days likely
0149
*4856 correction
0148
4852 next micro trgt qqqq
0145
took 25% of qld off at the 4844 trgt,,,about 0.5% profit on that lil piece...that was not autotrade,,i over-rode it there on 25%,,autotrade still in
0144
qqqq hit 4844 trgt and backed off,,,normal,, still should go up,,but that 4844 needs to break sustain
0141
4858 4871 4896...each must be hurdeled..not sure on the 4896
0135
4844 qqqq target first
0132
QLD trade still valid,,, sds swing still valid lol,,, long n short but diff timeframes
0127
ideally the QLD day will give a small profit, and the swing sds will stay alive without stopout, then sds reverse higher
0106
still in sds swing,,, over 30.15 is preferred,,,,last 3042,, still up 3.2% profit in sds (what remains, took some profits b4 of course)
0105
2 bull hammers in 60min qqqq,,,,
but they need confirming closes ABOVE the high of the hammer, per most candle rules
1248
in qld, 6549 program autotrade
1247
out of qid,,,breakeven
1244
wow...within 2 cents of stopout in qid...still in
1241
1647 qid stop, breakeven
1238
qqqq might give next target down at 4783 ,,, usually if the first target is missed my pennies, then the second one is hit, or in between,,,, same as other day,, of course 4708 might "be it" for now in qqqq, but charts still say "stay short"
1235
qqqq hit 4808 close to my 4802 target....
1214
16.37 stop in QID for now
1210
shouldnt use less than 25,000 on those trades, or commissions could eat up profits,, 25k gives 200-400% / yr,, nothing spectactular, it's the tortoise style
1209
again,,,autotrade will have many small trades like this when in daytrade mode not swing mode,,, but will catch the 1-4% moves
1208
6553 vs 6557 autotrade, 4 cent loss,,,, immediately reversed back into qid,, in qid 16.48
1154
Looking for entry into the SRS for swing...no entry yet,, could be multi month hold
1151
stop qld 6533 for now,, but again its on my autotrade program,,,stop will be autoraised
1146
yesterday i took about a 2% loss in TBT, but glad to be out,, tbt down another 2.39% today
1141
QLD up 6593 from 6557
1118
fwiw,,,my autotrader just did QLD 6550 but it has history of only 57% winning trades, but annual ROI on in is 200-300%.... wins profits greater than losses
1112
ok...stopped on the qqqq shorts 4828 from 5012,,,, still have 25%
1110
covering all but 25% of qqqq puts... .74 cost to 2.06 sell for 278% profit
1109
TYP profits 11% from yest
1107
STOP COVER lock profit 4828 qqqq for now on all but 25% of shares...tite stop
1105
4822 qqqq target hit exactly,,,if it holds here i will cover then reenter
1100
theres the 10 cent drop in qqqq expected
1059
VIX marching toward the 26ish target...last 24.77 and rising....
1056
4850 qqqq last
1055
i think we pull back one more time here, maybe not new low, before bouncing uyp... will prob cover most shorts on that, always saving 25% of shares at breakeven of course
1052
1168 spx would give the 4802 qqqq target prob
1051
spx may want 1169 not 1172
1047
the 3 min is building bull divergences but they must be stronger for me to do any longs or cover shorts completely,,,, still in shorts about 50% shares
1045
MM are trying to build a qqqq base here but selling again 4850 so watching this,, no long signal or no cover shorts yet
1043
IF VIX HOLDS 23 the NEXT REAL RESISTANCE is 27ish...last 24.47
1040
4823 could be a magnet...watching
1038
1174 spx should stall it
1037
my target "real first" is 4823 tho...watching for reaction there
1036
cover half shares from 4876 at 4850 works here
1035
if shorted at 4876....watching for cover area in coming minutes for scalp, longer for day,, last 4848
1028
4876 short here could work but riskier... target LOD
1024
the 60 min qqqq suggests qqqq is only "just beginning" its decline...much more down in coming days,,,with bounces up of course
1021
qqqq throwing a bounce warning now...but not ready for long or exit short,,,, sideways i think for few min
1017
VIX has marginally broke over R,,,prior hi from 5 days ago,,, needs to hold over it
1012
DOW under 11000 psych # now,,, will that convert to resistance? (Of course, other #s are "tech resist" not 11000)
1005
there's the 10 cent drop in qqqq in last minute,, epxecting lower or sideways still
1004
10 min qqqq is getting lil stronger,,,but usually it will turn back down first with this pattern,,,initial strength only,, 4888 last
1000
expecting spx to turn back down here before any bounce up,,, under curr 1184
0956
i mentioned 3 days ago this is "distribution" toppping process behaviour,,, still thinking 1165 then 1150 spx but not right away of course
0947
taking profits on half of qqqq puts at 1.61 here from 0.74 cost,,, 213% profit
0942
qqqq target 4873, hit 4872 or one cent less, then bounced, but looking for lower,,,, still short
0941
4807 qqqq target in coming days
0939
qqqq target 4873 hit,,,,, why i took some off there, lock profit
0938
typ 7% profit, locking 25% of shares here
0937
in Q puts from .74,,,, typ from 6.94,, typ last 7.45 for
0934
4873 qqqq target... 10 cents under the 4883
0932
qqqq down hard, qqqq need hold more impt support 4883,, last 4906
0907
still short sds, spxu, qqqq from 5012 last 4936
0904
looking for retest of Friday lows,,, i still think we break those and head lower in coming days,
8:59
ES is down 12 points right now,,,, the new short setup entries from yesterday were valid and working
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ESFutures continue lower toward the lower test targets.
0529
QID could see 16.63 afterhours tonite....
0527
there it goes.... 1170 broken....
0520
1170 looks like it wants to brea lower
0518
1166/67 possible if 1170 not held,,,retest those lows...
0515
watching to see if 1170 ES is held up until 8pm, or if it cracks under it,,, or move over 1174,,,
0434
i still see more downside in spx qqqq....the 15min and 60min charts can be used to time adding shorts (or long for that matter if things change)
0351
last trade,,, qid 1650 into close
0341
Out of QLD 65.41 from 65.70,,, loss
0306
autotrade out of QID 1647 from 1645 (breakeven), in QLD 65.70
0259
the last time that SPX tested its daily 50 MA, it moved down the very next day another 25 points,,, 2 big red candles. first 1148 to 1115 (down 33 points) on first day,,, then 1115 to 1090 next day (down 25pts).... 58 points in 2 days... something to consider,,,, from Jan 22 2010
0247
up in vix not spx
0246
VIX chart suggests a move up here
0220
In QID now, autotrade, at 1647
0219
stopped out qld,,,small profit
0217
QLD autotrader moved stop into profit zone, stop 6566,, QLD profit 0.58 now
0216
this 4845 qqqqq hard to crack ...still think goes higher over it,, charts suggest more "tries"
0210
i still seee more down for swing,,,,just dont know how much/if bounce will be,, this mkt has amazing ability to bounce when its not supposed to LOL
0209
cannot tell if candles r
continuation or bull hammers,,, macd stretched,
15min weakening,,, 15min rsi rising in UTL
0207
the 60min spx is getting hard to read now...could go either way,,which usually means chop sideways till mkt makes up its mind,, spx 1174
0204
VIX 3 min.... 5 mini waves down,,,abc next?
0202
i might cover the sds swing soon,,, hourly chart weakening.... not yet but weaker now,,,watchintg,,,, will look to re-enter short since more downside in coming days likely
0149
*4856 correction
0148
4852 next micro trgt qqqq
0145
took 25% of qld off at the 4844 trgt,,,about 0.5% profit on that lil piece...that was not autotrade,,i over-rode it there on 25%,,autotrade still in
0144
qqqq hit 4844 trgt and backed off,,,normal,, still should go up,,but that 4844 needs to break sustain
0141
4858 4871 4896...each must be hurdeled..not sure on the 4896
0135
4844 qqqq target first
0132
QLD trade still valid,,, sds swing still valid lol,,, long n short but diff timeframes
0127
ideally the QLD day will give a small profit, and the swing sds will stay alive without stopout, then sds reverse higher
0106
still in sds swing,,, over 30.15 is preferred,,,,last 3042,, still up 3.2% profit in sds (what remains, took some profits b4 of course)
0105
2 bull hammers in 60min qqqq,,,,
but they need confirming closes ABOVE the high of the hammer, per most candle rules
1248
in qld, 6549 program autotrade
1247
out of qid,,,breakeven
1244
wow...within 2 cents of stopout in qid...still in
1241
1647 qid stop, breakeven
1238
qqqq might give next target down at 4783 ,,, usually if the first target is missed my pennies, then the second one is hit, or in between,,,, same as other day,, of course 4708 might "be it" for now in qqqq, but charts still say "stay short"
1235
qqqq hit 4808 close to my 4802 target....
1214
16.37 stop in QID for now
1210
shouldnt use less than 25,000 on those trades, or commissions could eat up profits,, 25k gives 200-400% / yr,, nothing spectactular, it's the tortoise style
1209
again,,,autotrade will have many small trades like this when in daytrade mode not swing mode,,, but will catch the 1-4% moves
1208
6553 vs 6557 autotrade, 4 cent loss,,,, immediately reversed back into qid,, in qid 16.48
1154
Looking for entry into the SRS for swing...no entry yet,, could be multi month hold
1151
stop qld 6533 for now,, but again its on my autotrade program,,,stop will be autoraised
1146
yesterday i took about a 2% loss in TBT, but glad to be out,, tbt down another 2.39% today
1141
QLD up 6593 from 6557
1118
fwiw,,,my autotrader just did QLD 6550 but it has history of only 57% winning trades, but annual ROI on in is 200-300%.... wins profits greater than losses
1112
ok...stopped on the qqqq shorts 4828 from 5012,,,, still have 25%
1110
covering all but 25% of qqqq puts... .74 cost to 2.06 sell for 278% profit
1109
TYP profits 11% from yest
1107
STOP COVER lock profit 4828 qqqq for now on all but 25% of shares...tite stop
1105
4822 qqqq target hit exactly,,,if it holds here i will cover then reenter
1100
theres the 10 cent drop in qqqq expected
1059
VIX marching toward the 26ish target...last 24.77 and rising....
1056
4850 qqqq last
1055
i think we pull back one more time here, maybe not new low, before bouncing uyp... will prob cover most shorts on that, always saving 25% of shares at breakeven of course
1052
1168 spx would give the 4802 qqqq target prob
1051
spx may want 1169 not 1172
1047
the 3 min is building bull divergences but they must be stronger for me to do any longs or cover shorts completely,,,, still in shorts about 50% shares
1045
MM are trying to build a qqqq base here but selling again 4850 so watching this,, no long signal or no cover shorts yet
1043
IF VIX HOLDS 23 the NEXT REAL RESISTANCE is 27ish...last 24.47
1040
4823 could be a magnet...watching
1038
1174 spx should stall it
1037
my target "real first" is 4823 tho...watching for reaction there
1036
cover half shares from 4876 at 4850 works here
1035
if shorted at 4876....watching for cover area in coming minutes for scalp, longer for day,, last 4848
1028
4876 short here could work but riskier... target LOD
1024
the 60 min qqqq suggests qqqq is only "just beginning" its decline...much more down in coming days,,,with bounces up of course
1021
qqqq throwing a bounce warning now...but not ready for long or exit short,,,, sideways i think for few min
1017
VIX has marginally broke over R,,,prior hi from 5 days ago,,, needs to hold over it
1012
DOW under 11000 psych # now,,, will that convert to resistance? (Of course, other #s are "tech resist" not 11000)
1005
there's the 10 cent drop in qqqq in last minute,, epxecting lower or sideways still
1004
10 min qqqq is getting lil stronger,,,but usually it will turn back down first with this pattern,,,initial strength only,, 4888 last
1000
expecting spx to turn back down here before any bounce up,,, under curr 1184
0956
i mentioned 3 days ago this is "distribution" toppping process behaviour,,, still thinking 1165 then 1150 spx but not right away of course
0947
taking profits on half of qqqq puts at 1.61 here from 0.74 cost,,, 213% profit
0942
qqqq target 4873, hit 4872 or one cent less, then bounced, but looking for lower,,,, still short
0941
4807 qqqq target in coming days
0939
qqqq target 4873 hit,,,,, why i took some off there, lock profit
0938
typ 7% profit, locking 25% of shares here
0937
in Q puts from .74,,,, typ from 6.94,, typ last 7.45 for
0934
4873 qqqq target... 10 cents under the 4883
0932
qqqq down hard, qqqq need hold more impt support 4883,, last 4906
0907
still short sds, spxu, qqqq from 5012 last 4936
0904
looking for retest of Friday lows,,, i still think we break those and head lower in coming days,
8:59
ES is down 12 points right now,,,, the new short setup entries from yesterday were valid and working
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
Monday, May 3, 2010
Monday ramblings
0445
ES and QQQQ are down afterhours, as expected at 0359pm
0440
qqqq hit 4985 AH, close to the 49.83 target from 4:02 PM.. it could go lower than that even
0402
wouldnt be surprised to see qqqq hit 49.83 in AH, 4994 last
0359
could move down 15min AH
0342
looks like one more push down b4 the close, last spx 1202
0326
i think we see more downside tomorrow
0324
there it is..broken
0324
qqqq should break .96
0319
vix stalled at 1998ish as expected, pulled back,,, now testing 1998 again,,, expecting break higher
0319
still see lower spx under 1202
0312
covering 25% qqqq shorts here to lock some profit at 4997
0311
4994 qqqq support
0311
1998 vix stalll....moved as expected but could stall there,,, last 1984
0309
stilll see vix up in coming minutes..
0304
vix holding its form now,,,caused spx to drop some there,,,still no vol tho
0302
down here but not on any meaningful vol...still chop for now
0300
i have a vix upside movement setup,, last 1970,,, bearish spx for now
0259
vix suggesting higher vix...
0247
last two 60min candles in ES bearish
0245
wow qqqq volume very low today
0232
qqqq 20 MA on 60min still under the 50MA...has not crossed it
0228
i still have a "stay short" setup
0225
1million qqqq traded red at 50.07,,,, MM could push up to cover their long,,, or drop it,,, could go either way depending on what they did earlier in day
0223
usually the failure swings hold the backtest, if not then i'll cover qqqq shorts and re-enter if appropriate later
0221
qqqq r backtesting the failure swing 10min,,,, see what reaction is up or down
0213
we have the bear qqqq 10min failure swing,,,watching for followthruough now
0211
looks like it will break 50.05 this time in qqqq for moderate target down
0207
down here but not on heavy volume at least not yet,,,still just chop but continues to weaken
0205
the 10min qqqq has one tooo, a break below the neckline would give a bear rsi failure swing
0204
qqqq 3min rsi bear HS developing,, but holding for now
0152
its likely they will hold up today in this light volume, then test 1190spx first tomorrow,,, spx moved to R today, move down to support tomorrow,, if spx doesnt close near highs, shows further weakness today
0150
i see downside today from here but it is likely limitited today,,,, whipsaw in coming days,,, then lower
0139
the qqqq 60min MoneyFlow and OBV are setting up bearish HS patterns
0130
49.83 first qqqq target down, short
0129
SPX stalled and turned down exactly at a perfect touch of the 60 min downtrend R line
0119
a 10min close under 5004 qqqq would give a good short setup
1257
i will do 50.12 short qqqq,, TYP is at 6.95
1240
daily spx qqqq still in a coil....up and down likely until it is broken either way
1228
spx prices still below 50 MA on 60 min chart.... 20 MA still below 50MA,,, daily coil
1224
last move up had good volume
1139
not so sure...there is a bear diverg macd hist setting up spx 10min
1124
but i can see a poss inv HS in 15min chart also
1123
spx 15min downchannel, ES 15min not so clear
1058
the sell program warning from 1026AM has manifested itself here,,,1196 spx to
1191, a 5 point drop.... lower still possible
1055
*correction: spx coil support is at 1188 not here... support is lower down, last 1192
1053
but a small bounce at the coil support wouldnt surprise either, tho bias still down
1052
spx right at the daily coil support here, looks like it will break lower
1046
spx daily continues to coil for now
1044
mini bear HS forming spx 3min
1043
*4946 stop tbt
1038
tbt stop 4547 for now,,,itte, last 4550,,, can always re-enter,,, would be a 1.9% loss if stopped
1035
qqqq pullled back right near that 4977 resist as expected... still see R there
1032
short setup 80% complete now, hold time 15min-4 hours
1026
spx sell program here small, warns of more later,,, spx1196
1021
i seee 4977 qqqq then stall,, last 4971
1018
spx has more work on the downside though
1012
qqqq resist at 4971
1010
i see more sell vol than buy vol... last 10 minutes
1004
also there was some volume on the last lil move down, hence the short
1003
i'll try spxu 27.80... spx weaker now than 5 min ago.. bias for hours / days is down still
1001
TBT looking good this morn, recovering from friday decline
952
intraday bias is up to me, for now,,,
948
comments may be sparse today...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
ES and QQQQ are down afterhours, as expected at 0359pm
0440
qqqq hit 4985 AH, close to the 49.83 target from 4:02 PM.. it could go lower than that even
0440
SDS SPXU new swing entered this morning is slightly red,,, sds 2916 vs 2950 cost or spxu 2735 vs 2780
0402
wouldnt be surprised to see qqqq hit 49.83 in AH, 4994 last
0359
could move down 15min AH
0342
looks like one more push down b4 the close, last spx 1202
0326
i think we see more downside tomorrow
0324
there it is..broken
0324
qqqq should break .96
0319
vix stalled at 1998ish as expected, pulled back,,, now testing 1998 again,,, expecting break higher
0319
still see lower spx under 1202
0312
covering 25% qqqq shorts here to lock some profit at 4997
0311
4994 qqqq support
0311
1998 vix stalll....moved as expected but could stall there,,, last 1984
0309
stilll see vix up in coming minutes..
0304
vix holding its form now,,,caused spx to drop some there,,,still no vol tho
0302
down here but not on any meaningful vol...still chop for now
0300
i have a vix upside movement setup,, last 1970,,, bearish spx for now
0259
vix suggesting higher vix...
0247
last two 60min candles in ES bearish
0245
wow qqqq volume very low today
0232
qqqq 20 MA on 60min still under the 50MA...has not crossed it
0228
i still have a "stay short" setup
0225
1million qqqq traded red at 50.07,,,, MM could push up to cover their long,,, or drop it,,, could go either way depending on what they did earlier in day
0223
usually the failure swings hold the backtest, if not then i'll cover qqqq shorts and re-enter if appropriate later
0221
qqqq r backtesting the failure swing 10min,,,, see what reaction is up or down
0213
we have the bear qqqq 10min failure swing,,,watching for followthruough now
0211
looks like it will break 50.05 this time in qqqq for moderate target down
0207
down here but not on heavy volume at least not yet,,,still just chop but continues to weaken
0205
the 10min qqqq has one tooo, a break below the neckline would give a bear rsi failure swing
0204
qqqq 3min rsi bear HS developing,, but holding for now
0152
its likely they will hold up today in this light volume, then test 1190spx first tomorrow,,, spx moved to R today, move down to support tomorrow,, if spx doesnt close near highs, shows further weakness today
0150
i see downside today from here but it is likely limitited today,,,, whipsaw in coming days,,, then lower
0139
the qqqq 60min MoneyFlow and OBV are setting up bearish HS patterns
0130
49.83 first qqqq target down, short
0129
SPX stalled and turned down exactly at a perfect touch of the 60 min downtrend R line
0119
a 10min close under 5004 qqqq would give a good short setup
1257
i will do 50.12 short qqqq,, TYP is at 6.95
1240
daily spx qqqq still in a coil....up and down likely until it is broken either way
1228
spx prices still below 50 MA on 60 min chart.... 20 MA still below 50MA,,, daily coil
1224
last move up had good volume
1139
not so sure...there is a bear diverg macd hist setting up spx 10min
1124
but i can see a poss inv HS in 15min chart also
1123
spx 15min downchannel, ES 15min not so clear
1058
the sell program warning from 1026AM has manifested itself here,,,1196 spx to
1191, a 5 point drop.... lower still possible
1055
*correction: spx coil support is at 1188 not here... support is lower down, last 1192
1053
but a small bounce at the coil support wouldnt surprise either, tho bias still down
1052
spx right at the daily coil support here, looks like it will break lower
1046
spx daily continues to coil for now
1044
mini bear HS forming spx 3min
1043
*4946 stop tbt
1038
tbt stop 4547 for now,,,itte, last 4550,,, can always re-enter,,, would be a 1.9% loss if stopped
1035
qqqq pullled back right near that 4977 resist as expected... still see R there
1032
short setup 80% complete now, hold time 15min-4 hours
1026
spx sell program here small, warns of more later,,, spx1196
1021
i seee 4977 qqqq then stall,, last 4971
1018
spx has more work on the downside though
1012
qqqq resist at 4971
1010
i see more sell vol than buy vol... last 10 minutes
1004
also there was some volume on the last lil move down, hence the short
1003
i'll try spxu 27.80... spx weaker now than 5 min ago.. bias for hours / days is down still
1001
TBT looking good this morn, recovering from friday decline
952
intraday bias is up to me, for now,,,
948
comments may be sparse today...
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
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