Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

0358
6102 exit qld from 6086 (i didnt


trade that)
 
0349
i exited IBM today just now for a few cents over breakeven, not holding swing

0343
IBM stop 123.93,,,either it holds here or i'm out with small loss of 0.70%....not taking chances in this craziness

0337
QLD at 60.80 has a setup but i'm not taking it...enough for 1 day,, staying out

0328
well this is a good reminder of how important stops are,,,those "emergency" hard stops set below our "mental stops"

0323
i still have 1050, 1044, 925, 875 spx as targets,,, 925 only if 1044 doesnt hold,,,will have to see reaction if we get 1044,, same targets as last week.

0314
STOP on IBM at 121.73 in case we get another surge, to limit any loss to a small one

0300
i'm very surprised,,,as bearish as i have been the last 7 days, consistently shorting swing,,,, i did not think we would see this type of 2007 action again in 2010,, i'm still surprised at over 500 down on the DOW

0256
wow ibm now only red 1% from 3% LOL crazy

0252
VIX just paused at 4/17 high, resistance,,,notice the immediate correction the next day (down vix) 4/18

0249
DOW down 691

0246
QQQQ hit my 42.00 target,,,,last 4379 from 4155 low

0245
grr i should NOT have sold all my qid day,,, still have swings short spxu

0244
DOW down 500,,, even over that 300 mentioned b4
 
0240
IBM might want 121.50 but charts suggest it will bounce before that

0239
i will do LONG IBM 125.17,,, will hold a small piece of that swing ,,, SMALL

0227
i THINK that should be it....bounce up then maybe close near low,,,but think it should hold here....1129 spx, but i have NO chart confirmation on that

0223
taking 4% day qid, 6% TYP profits now,,,, all out of qid typ for now day

0222
VIX at target....watching CLOSEfor reaction...right here

0221
ok VIX target 3175 and that will likely put a lid on the decline, last 3105

0219
DOW went over the -200,,,down 235 now

0213
spx 1115 is strong support spx,,,last 1137

0210
took some qid profits 17.21,,,,still short via the spxu sds qqqq and 25% more daytrade QID

0207
17.23 i will likely sell some qid for 2% profit

0203
but still short,,,only slowing not stopped....stop tite at 17.04 on the QID

0202
BUY program there...surprisingly,,,,could stabilize here,,charts stabilizing now

0155
wow QQQQ daily candles are


BELOW the lower bollinger band again today,,, 2

candles in a row, rare
 
0144
rasing stop to 1708 from 1703 on half shares,,,holding other half

0141
ok qqqq at support here at 4735,,,watching reaction

0135
a clear 5 waves down in ES 15min, with us in wave 5,,,,

0127
stop 17.03 on half shares in qid to lock 1% profit

0124
now THIS could finally give that elusive 60minute "qqqq bounce for long play" setup,,, after more down, not yet,,,more down first

0118
newest QID is in profit zone tho...broke for a new high of day, up 0.95% now

0115
stop .51 kft,, took loss there, 0.52%

0106
VIX is in a bearish rising wedge,,, but we all know those can be volatile and break up before down...watching that,,, also the wedge can convert to a bull vix channel (bearish for spx)...so watching reactions

1258
KFT trying to move higher,,,,29.85 is first target ,,,should stall there, will prob take some profits if able there,,,last 29.67

1248
QID is now testing HOD....watching reaction,,,still in qid

1238
in QID 16.87

1233
BUY Program warning for KFT only

1224
if KFT get 2970 it should give a nice pop up

1221
KFT 29.61 limit filled, long

1218
LONG in KFT 29.61 if able

1200
out of last sds breakeven (2 cents profit)...that one didnt pop

1148
problem for bulls is........the 60 min is NOT DIVERGING<,,,, it is also forming higher hi in the rsi,,,tho macd suspect

1146
looking for entry point LONG in MCD,,,, the bulls deserve a break today

1141
i STILL do not have the "nice" 60min bull divergence in spx to try long, nor do other indicators suggest it for me right here,,, should change after this last push down if it comes

1132
i see one more push down, then possible entry for long day,,, sds last 3138

1128
possible inv HS forming in ES 15min

1124
in more spxu 30.52 now

1119
locking 3% profits on spxu from yesterdays swing, on half of shares here,,, thats the new one from yest,,,still qqqq short from 5012

1117
should get a small bounce here at least 4863 qqqq

1109
taking some qid profits on 75% of shares here,,,think it will drop back down to re-enter,,, at 16.81 (only 0.75% profit on that one),,, still in the spxu swing from yesterday tho

1103
bulls are weaker here... vix "should have" backtested back down 15minutes ago and did not,,,, qqqq "should have" tried 4807 even 4821 and couldnt

1055
an spx 1158 on this first try would suggest more weakness (or headfake,,,watching_

1054
4807 is qqqq Resis too

1049
heres the expected stall in 4792 qqqq,,,, charts still say down after any upmove

1047
we got that expected close es under 1158 15 n 60 min cndl, and downside followed as expected, ES last 1155 and falling after poss bounce here

1046
qqqq 4797,,, prob 4793 then up then selloff,,sell program warning (same signal setup as yesterdays)

1044
the next move down should set up the "better" 60min bull diverg i mentioned yest,,,then maybe long for me (but only day for now long_)

1038
my spx target still same...if 1157 breaks then 1150 (jan hi, march low)

1033
qqqq prob stall at 4793, last 4804

1030
possible QID asc triangle and cup handle bull formations in 3min (bearish qqqq and spx)

1027
i just got a momen shift warning,, from up to down bias, incomplete just warning, with a crouching tiger bearish 78% (usually 87% is actionable),, qqqq at 4810

1025
if ES gets a 15 or 60 min close under 1159,,, dangerous for longs

1023
ES 15min has some nasty bear candles, shoot stars long tails, BUT those candles always need confirmation, with a close BELOW the low of the star candel

1016
hmmm now there is a poss bear HS 3min forming in 2- 3min qqqq, only half done, left shoulder and head

1011
,this whipsaw is typical with these chart patterns,,,the 15 and 60 not aligned so up n down

1011
as expectd, qqqq have declined some,,, still could go more....went 4832 to 4817

1007
there were some large green blocks,,,, MM may have to bring it down some before more up (so they can cover their shorts when they sold to the green sales)

1006
rigtht at a resistance point now 1168 spx,, 4830 qqqq

0939
i'm still looking to enter long but waiting for (1) 60 min bull diverg to get stronger, its weak now, or (2) wait for 60min to strengthen with 15min aligned to it

0934
in QID 16.70, this one is early entry and might be short lived

0859
spx should hold 1152/48ish,,, the 1/19 high and 3/22 low,,might want 1150 before bounce/backtest

0854
ES is down 7 points here.... why i chose to hold some swing shorts last night (wednesday),,, same as tues night,,, might get opp today to go long for a little while only,

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".