Monday ramblings

415
need to watch swing shorts tho cuz there is a pattern that says 1300ish spx tho i'm not long, being quick to take swing profits in this mess

414
i dont think the es loses 1170ish b4 dec 31

413
with a shortable bounce hopefully tomorrow to add edz eem etc

412
many stocks look, to me, to have testetd support today, supp held, went to R which held, and started bak down to support test,,, think they move lower to continue support test in comoing hours days

411
it took 4 hours but TLT finally got the 60min bull rsi swing signal, watching to see if can hold up tomorrow

406
yes,,2m should give a swing shortable bounce too tho,,,to finish the pattern mentinoed 10am,,,never finished baking,, tho i remain positioned short via mcd  ko  dd dis kft oil tbt, and long tlt sco

401
so tlt overshort the .20 trgt by 2 cents but missed the .31 stretch trgt

400
took some proftis on the tlt tbt on trgts hit, tho still have half 50%

358
TLT just hit .22 overshort the .20 trgt :D

358
looks like i'm exiting that ES short scalp breakeven or 1 point gain or .5 loss,, but TLT TBT  KO MCD weee

353
9620 and 9631 stretch TLT trgt up

352
just hit the .09 trgt tho :D

351
removing .09 cover to do manually

350
3582 tbt trgt lower but dont think gets it today

350
limit cover some 3609

349
rev trgt 3609 tbt

348
KO   KFT  TLT nice action last few days

345
still ahve 3611 tbt trgt today or loswer, last 3617

343
i prefer shorting tbt to shorting spx,,,tbt never made higher hi daily

333
tlt 10min bull 5 methods

332
VIX 3min breakout higher poss,,lower spx

330
may take some tbt shorts profit at 3611 last 3620

326
]no new KFT shorts yet,,,still in profit on existing shorts,,want 3050ish to add or diff chart pattern

325
the TLT 355pm signal is now switching from short to long,,,unfonfirmed yet

323
my TIP outperforming the TLT,,,could be bond $$$ going to TIP

306
trying for 9648 TLT to take some profit if able, last 9600

300
tbt 3612 next trgt

300
TLT just hit the 9600 trgt,,, 9620 next

259
vix 3min up,,,tlt up,,,spx up 3min,,,vix n tlt may pressure selling on spx tho

258
tbt needs under 3621 trgt last 3626

248
TLT breaking,,,,warning continues,,,,.84 last

246
KO not interested in rallying here :)  tho DIS is now in the loss zone for short grr

243
tlt 9575 last,,,could breakout here,,,,or might want 9750 9730 down again first,so watching

241
TLT breakout higher warning,,,could pull the es spx down,,,warn only no trigger

239
more danger for longs es, since so near 1127 R at least first try R


238
interesting,,,tlt is moving up


here along with spx,,,triky for

both longs shorts
 
 
 
231
tlt trying break higher,,,no confirm yet

222
and a alt TLT bull inv hs 3min trgt 9600ish

219
tlt 9620ish trgt on inv HS if breaks over 9580

217
the tlt has....15min,,, a poss bull inv HS (bearish for spx),,, but maybe


es 15min bull asc triangle 1228 trgt
 
 
 
212
ES is still forming that multi-hour "maybe good swing short" setup,,,still not finished, no entry yet

207
unconfirmed setup tho, early entry, swing

206
look at SCO 11/10 and 11/11 candles, and compare to today and yest... expecting higher sco lower oil,,identical patterns, similar to bull morn star

154
but TLT needs that rsi bull swing failure to go up more 60min,,,still waiting on it patiently, takes hours sometimes

129
if DIS hits 3800 i'll short more of it

115
TLT bull


rsi swing still forming,,taking a

few hours as expected,

unconfirmed atm
 
 
1231
grr i dont like these chop signals,,,may take proftis sooner than normal as result of them

1228
sco hit its first daily trgt up (oil down)

1226
i'm now getting chop alerts, and upside retests, up down everywhere

1208
es now testing its 15min uptrendline support,,,still see lower ES but supp must crack

1200
oil, moving lower still weakengin, sco scalp profits 11 cents about 1% from 10am


1158
see that rejection rite at .64 spy? they r tryihg to force down if able

1156
they


get trapped short then they will

exit fast with at least a fast

2point pop higher in ES as a

result, but bias is down
 
 
1155
MM was "forced" short spy 122.63,,,if able they will take it down, then will pop higher after they cover, scalp, process could take 5-120 minutes

1153
watching SPY 11965 resist

1149
Market maker  reports suggest spy under 12263 then higher over it

1148
ES sell alert 82% at 1221,, often it bounces b4 decline

1143
one reason i'm holding 75% shorts is cuz of that bull RSI swing poss on 60min tlt,,,not confirmed but forming, tho could take another 15-180 minutes

1141
the TLT and ES are hitting their targets within seconds of each other,,,atm they r in sync tho that could changes

1140
conserv will take profits here 1220,,,holding 75% of mine for now for lower

1139
es should bounce on meeting its scalp  targets and allow reload shorts, maybe for swing short next

1137
*over .77

1136
revised TLT trgt is now .93,,,came close to .83 trgt and now expect a 20 cent jump on pop over .75

1134
KO just made a new low of day

1128
es bear HS  1220-24 so 1216 is HS trgt

1124
watching for a bullish rsi failure swing on TLT 60min chart to push tlt over its .83 trgt

1122
still swing short ko  mcd  kft  dd  dis,,,they are all lower today red :),, tho DD position is at a loss rite now

1117
tlt now 6 cents from daily trgt 1 from 930AM

1109
charts sugg small test lower near lower boll band 60min charts

1107
McClellan osc now at negative -26

1056
poss 1045



mini bear HS forming on es,


may bounce at 1220 then


break under 1220
 

10 cents from first daily trgt is TLT,, see higher after that too

1044
TLT made new intraday highs as expected :), still see higher TLT lower tbt

1041
i want KFT short to rally higher so i can add more shorts

1040
oil weakening now,,,early swing short entry here, sco 1069 could work tho early

1037
60min es chart is not tired yet,,,when it gets tired then swing short could present

1037
a nice swing short may present, but "nice" won't happen for at least 2 hours

1031
ES 1122 short still valid to me, 1124 add also could work

1029
9583 TLT trgt next, 20 cents approx, for rect trgt

1028
TLT is at its high of day now

1026
careful long es here,,,TLT is also moving up on 3min now, could pull down spx, es 1223.50

1010
1122 es short could work to hold for hours

957
theres tlt pullbakc expected, now watching to see if higher hi intraday

950
there goes KFT down some as expected min ago

948
slow open, KFT and Oil have signs of lower, others sideways for now

938
TLT high of day 9565, pullback then a higher hi intraday expected

920 AM
GM


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday ramblings

354
LOL the KO just made a new daily low

346
vix down 8% vs spy up 0.25% atm

345
vix may need to fall more,,,but pretty sure its gonna rally hard in coming weeks and bring spx down

343
i am staying short over weekend swing
and tlt long

317
now KO is moving down nice,,
only TLT remains problematic grr

305
prob is,,, FED will also step in to prevent bond crash LOL,,then stocks will pull bhack,, musical chairs

303
WOW this KFT just cannot get in any rally :) good for kft shorts

247
TLT is trying to recover here b4 close,,,watching

243
intersting: if u draw a trendline on the ES lows from sept 8, it will show this support trendline broken,,but... the backtest is now


rite "under" thaqt broken trendline...its a perfect touch under the prior support line
 
 
226
3 higher lows on the vix bull diverg vix bear div spx


225
look at VIX daily MACD line,,,suggests a selloff in spx is coming in days ahead, tho spx may drift higher

224
ok adding MCD shorts swing 7950, last 7951

208
TLT


9514,,,thought 9530 would hold

, still see higher tlt lower tbt
 
 
208
almost ready to add more MCD shorts,,,has rallied some here as expected

138
buying more TLT here 9531,,,(or short tbt 3672)

102
removing order to short more 1220,,,keeping the 1218 short for now

1235
missed 1233pm trgt,,was supposed to hit 1216 then bounce

1218
SCO could work here 1089

1216
1233pm es 1216 trgt or lower at curr velocity

1212
es hit 1218.25, filled

1211
if sell alert 82% works then es should go under 1216, but still only 82% sell

1210
taking 1218, to start, may add more, shorted es 1218

1208
lim short
es 1220 if filled, may need to go in
lower

1207
getting ready to add scalp shorts ES spxu at ES 1218 last, just seeing how high it want to go b4 stall n fall

1200
often there is a bounce rite after the sell alerts trigger 82%, then lower, can often short the headfake rally

1158
KO is starting to weaken,,still will be slower in KO short

1157
sell alert ES 82% at 1217 es

1137
i'm going to short any rally in MCD

1133
MCD just broke yesterdays low :)

1131
quik drop 7950 to 7915

1130
MCD falling here finally

1121
ES vol declined since 10AM on 3 min, and nowhere near the level 830 AM 10pt drop, bearish

1118
KO charts suggest it may take longer to fall cuz its generally strong stock, BUT theres a glaring bear diverg on the daily Price:RSI

1116
also, TIP has a daily bull diverg (bearish spx)

1112
since 1015AM both TLT and SPY 3min have been rising,,,i think TLT wins in coming hours days

1107
daily and 60min McClellan osc breadth in a range, hit R turning down, for swings not scalp

1104
KFT continues to be a fantas short,,,, KO MCD only moving sideways now

1033
its v interesting:  daily SPY came close to its  nov hi yet TLT treasuries have made a higher low: poten bearish for spx.  SPY Nov/Dec highs 122.95/122.65 vs TLT 93.81/ 95.53 lows,,,, I do expect bonds TLT to crash eventually, bubble, just not yet

1011
TLT is moving in bigger range intraday it seems, easier for scalps than spy

1002
shorting tbt 3635 here, to add to pos, combo swing scalp
 
940
shorting KFT again combo swing scalp if able at 3044 lim

911
ES now hit the 1217 trgt bnc up and 1217 holding for now

910
es hit 1213 one pt over 1212 trgt n bounced, but under 1217 bearish

909
ES 60min uptrend support line, is either holding or marginal break atm, but its a new line so weaker

900
as expected ZC treasuries are up, good for TLT long or TBT short,,, about 2% roi in the newly shorted TBT from yest

859
under 1217 es would be v bearish

855
ES 1212 support is key, watching if it holds, bounce likely there, tho i'm not going long 1212

852 AM
This ES 15min red selling bar is GREATER than any 15min green vol bar during the entire day yesterday, significant since this is pre-market. Bearish for spx ES.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs ramblings (and Wedn eve ES futures)

417
compare price and rsi for 3/17 and 4/15 with 11/8 and 12/2,, this rally is much weaker, rsi bear diverg, SPY daily

412
ABYSMAL volume in ES today, tough not to see a pullback

404
12140 bear spy wicks AH bearish for tomorrow

349
compare daily EEM and SPY,,,which would u rather be short swing? clear diff

348
vxx is at buy trgt now but i'm not taking it, cancelled order

334
355PM signal for SPY,XLF flashing on and off for long, on short EEM, the eem weaker,, need to wait for the close to see if changes

328
TLT is 20 year treasuries etf 1x, TBT is 2x short of TLT,,, i decided to short TBT (like going long TLT 2x) because i like the 20 yr over the 7-10yr TYD,,,also the TYD has horrible fills due to low volume, also i'm familiar with TLT and TBT since trade them often.

325
cancelled VXX order, never got filled

323
currently short the dow/spx via proxies dd   dis  kft  ko  mcd,,, long treas 30yr 2x,, short oil

315
vxx hit over its .83 scalp trgt but never got filled  :(

303
KFT hit the 3035 trgt :)

300
i am SHORTING the tbt here,,,equiv to LONG bonds treas, 36.44,swing

244
vxx combo swing scalp, trgts 4368, 4383, 4393, 4570, 4670, 4900

235
i'll buy VXX lim 4341 if filled last .58

230
WOW look at the VERRRRY low volume in DIS today,,,trying to short more swing

226
will short DIS more,add, at 3765 if filled,,,missed by 5 cnets, hit 3760 grr

223
3765 DIS trgt,,same as b4

209
taking profits now .46,,,try reshort bounce

206
GS is hiding on KFT bbut will prob quickly come in  at .35

205
trying to cover at .36/.37 still,, and will hold a piece of KFT as swing,,,bearish 60 min daily charts,, then reshort bounce if able

203
see that??? notice as soon as GS left,,,it went under .44 :)

158
if goldman sachs removes his bid on KFT it can hit the .37 trgt, not b4

151
OUT of bac now too, taking profits few cents from dialy high

149
FINALLY .45 hit on kft lol,,,took all day,,,still holding half

142
KFT now one cent from .46 trgt,,,still waiiting to take profits

129
i'm selling my bac into this rally soon for about 5% profit

125
3049 kft last,,breaking,,, 3044 trgt still but not covering yet, will cover 50% 3045,,,50% lower

116
KFT continues its painstaiking slow zzzz path down


113
2088 EUO looks good here, swing

112
WARNING: dollar dx just broke out of 3min rect,,,see if sustains or not higher

111
intraday dollar 3min warns lower spx unless dollar bear flag,,,dollar been rising

109
likely to sty in 1170---1225 es range until dec 31..... big boys want bonuses

106
still on sell alert, 80%

101
from oct 18--till now, for vix macd

100
look at the VIX daily macd signal line....bullish vix bear spx,,for swings not scalps, multiday weeks swings

1256
eem,.,, edz here r good for swing,, eem short 4690,,,edz 2200

1254
ES: easier to


just build a swing short position

here than scalp, or combo scalp

swing where sell scalp piece only if

targets r met else keep as
 
 
1233
changing cover to only 50%  not 75% kft at .44,,,,may get lower

1231
60min oil in a bear rise wedge,,shortable entries swing soon or here

1230
sell alerrt ES 79%,,, needs 85% to move,,suggests 1218 shortable bnc

1212
dis high


today 3750, may want 3765, 3765

may add more shorts if gets there,, 3746 last
 
 
1208
theres dis bnc expectede

1205
dis just hit .39 or one penny over trgt mini,,still see lower dis but may bounce lil here,, not a long scalp setup

1203
.44 trgt, cover 2 cents over trgrt if able

1203
KFT now at low of day, could cover some here but wiaiting for .46 lower

1159
3738 dis trgt then stall,,3743 last

1153
then


reshort the bounce
 
1152
still got that order to cover 75% kft 3046

1141
DIS should move below 3730 today, then below 3712

1131
when 60minn bac weakens then i will take profit

1128
keeping BAC hedge long from 1110 still, last 1168

1047
3045 prob bounce in kft,,,may take some off there

1047
also the kft 3min HS points to around 3035ish

1045
still have kft cover 3039 if able,,,see lower later but thats trgt for now for 50-75% of kft shares

1038
DD is going for a bearish daily dark cloud cover pattern atm,, KFT also dark cloud if moves lower

1032
KFT   DD have dropped nicely from their highs, tho DD short is red atm

1004
KFT 3min: poss bear broadening formation,, still developing not confirmed yet

955
adding short 1211 es here

955
DIS continues weak vs spx :),,, KFT is rollercoaster this morn, near low atm

950
lim add more shorts 1214 es if able
 
939
shorting 1209 es

933
intc should move under 2150 within 2 hours

929
might short es 120850 if able, unsure

900
lim take profit on kft 30.39 cover short if able


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wednesday ramblings (and tues night futures)

419
bear 150,000 red intc 21.15 vs 21.49 close,, 3063 red KFT 633,700 shares

suggests down tomorrow

411
thats why i prefer shorting individ stocks instead of dow, dia, dxd,,, usually will outperform (or not lose  as much on bad day_)
 
410
DD was up more tho, 2.89%

409
MCD  KFT  DIS shorts still outperforming DOW,,, DOW up 2.27% today vs. only up 1.25 and 1.26% and 1.67%

403
bear spy wicks AH to 120.40ish, suggests down tomorrow

401
barely closed under es 1106, but closed under 1106

355
taking 2 points profit on half es,,holding rest

353
for es today is lowest vol day of the week

320
to take profit,,will cover half of kft scalp 3051 if able, last 3062

319
kft under 3160 expected by 338pm

318
should see


es 1204 with 17min if velocity

continues
 
315
now MM are buying but apparently only to hold up to short more,,,unsure,,, MM bias analysis remains down short

241
2218 spxu

240
shorting



es 1206 viz spxu
 
234
i think we close under es 1206 today

228
not heavily shorting, but shorting,,no strong institutional selling,, maybe hedge funds idk

222
Market


Makers are now starting to short

here in select stocks, at ES 1206
 
208
DIS now making new daily lows, to fill gap

144
KFT "should" go under 3050 today,,watching

120
3033 lim cover kft for profit if able

109
lower volume on this up day

1233
swing shorts here could work,,,355pm still onhold shorts multiweek

1232
DOW hit 11,250 trgt from yest

1202
filled on rest of kft short

1157
partial fill on 3064 short

1154
still have 3064 short order kft, last 3060

1106
yest i mentinoed that es daily desc triangle was too good to be true, bear trap,,, no desc triangle now, busted by bulls,,,still on "short rallies for swings" tho

1054
i will addmore kft short 3064 lim if filled, over the .60 high

1039
waiting for 3060 or higher maybe in kft

1022
3023 trgt on KFT scalp piece

1019
scalp swing combo shorting KFT here 3052

949
of the new shorts today, KFT is weakest so will scalp that and also add more swings later mayb

937
the last 2 days i've been warning of poss rally on the spx,, this lil rally is still in line with charts, still on "short rallies swings" for now



515
For shorts i still prefer short eem,,edz over short spx

see the daily? spx sideways since nov 16 with no lower low,,,vs lower lows in eem... also see how EEM has lower highs??

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".