Thursday, February 3, 2011

Thurs ramblings

409
SPY wicks pointing down AH 129.67

406
IBM is near breakeven now, at 00.12% paper loss, i remain short ibm

359
there are green block trades going off on vxx now, bullish for vxx in coming days

353
ES made higher daily highs ,, vix never made lower lows, bearish for spx

342
wow sooooooo slow for 342 pm,,,no buyers or sellers, disinterest

339
ES just hit 1305.50 trgt from hour ago

322
lim sell 33% of vxx 3073 if able

318
that was buy 3 of poss 4 in vxx,,, avg cost still up there at 30.30, last 29.91

316
cancelling short more es, spxu, at es 1305.50,,using vxx instead

315
added more vxx here, avg cost 30.30

257
i'll add swing short spx if able, es 1305.50 lim, via spxu

122
DBA moving lower nicely, still swing short there

114
the TLT long is very similar to the EUO trade (short euro) where i entered EUO long 18.88 and exited 19.34,,, EUO Jan low (euro hi) was 18.83, a few cents from 18.88 posted entry

looking to reenter EUO again later

105
so tlt in downtrend atm and i am trading counter-trend long

104
TLT 60min broke its first DTL, causing a re-draw in chart,,,now testing 2nd DTL resist,,, usually it will pb and then break #2 to cause redraw #3,,, if #3 breaks higher then it can be considered a trend change in 60min from down to up

101
60min TLT is inside this bull falling wedge, at resisist moving sideways,,,it may break it higher,,,tho theres still room on downside support in wedge

1248
VXX Mar 19 2011 29.0 Call at 3.40/3.50,,,aggressive trade idea

1247
..........................................................................
IBM position is RED now, but
IBM is only red 0.41% right now,,v small red for a swing

1242
a SMALLER than normal position on vxx calls could work here, trading idea only, i'm long the underlying

1211
doubled my position in vxx, same entry price as 2 days ago, 3036, in order to allow some scalping in addition to swing,, still vxx position is much smaller than IBM TLT, dollarwise, due to very volatile nature of vxx

1207
if i didnt have vxx already i would buy here,,,the prev .59 buy trade is still valid, last .31

1156
just got stopped out of euo (euro short), profits taken, will look to re-enter later

1154
1299 es short could work here

1116
EUO profit now 2.87%,,raising stop to 19.34

1051
3059 vxx scalp swing could work here, i'm already in from 3035 few days ago

1050
ES hit 1297 trgt, and held down as expected on first test,,,still watching close here

1045
ES appproaching 1297 bounce trgt ,,,1296 last,,watching reaction

1039
after 1.356 trgt first

1038
1.347 Euro trgt lower, last 1.362

1025
TBT 60min has a bearish stoch dbl top, plus a bear diverg

1015
TLT up nicely here but approaching wedge resist,,may stall

1014
wow vxx :D,,

1010
Even the mighty DBA agriculture is starting to crack (irrelev to spx)

1009
if bounce < 1297, bearish es,,, think first 1297 test will hold it down

1008
1290 es trgt first

1002
19.57 EUO next trgt, last 1940

957
15min IBM has small coil, sym tri

952
EUO swing pos is at 2.5% roi now, to protect profits, setting stop at 19.21, last 19.34

947
TLT long, tbt short could work here, tlt 9005, same entry as yest

921
Euro is down this am, causing a nice gap higher in the euro short EUO position

917am
good morning

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or  currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, February 2, 2011

Weekly SPX is warning of declines, pattern valid since May 2009

fwiw, on SPY weekly charts, every stochastic 14,3,3 double top since May 2009 has resulted in a pullback to the 15 or 20 period weekly moving averages,,, a stoch dbl top is now being carved out in SPY and already has the bearish cross on it, with SPY 20 MA at 122.43,,, 15MA = 124.44,, 50 MA = 116.12

Double click the chart to see it full size




* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn ramblings (and Tues eve ES futures)

427
fwiw, on SPY weekly charts, every stochastic 14,3,3 double top since May 2009 has resulted in a pullback to the 15 or 20 period weekly moving averages,,, a stoch dbl top is now being carved out in SPY and already has the bearish cross on it, with SPY 20 MA at 122.43,,, 15MA = 124.44,, 50 MA = 116.12

404
CORN /ZC has a shooting star,,,still short DBA from yest

359
TLT scalps could take 0.8% profit,,,i'm holding most of mine as swing, with a lil profit taking here,,, TLT or tbt

348
es low vol today, spin top, normal after yest and prior 3 days

345
oil overnight is too tricky here for me,,,staying out both long and short

335
scalpers on tbt short might get 1-2% profit b4 close,,,
i will def hold at least some of thie long tlt short tbt overnight swing

329
imo,,,i still see the daily es spx moving sideways another 5 sessions,,,,approx 1260--1306 ES

319
TLT calls, or tbt puts, could work here

252
TLT 60min in a bull fallinig wedge,,,bought here at wedge support, macd MmM bull pattern,bull diverg 15min rsi, 10min chart testing Parab SAR resist

249
waiting on a tbt swing position,,,to hold multi weeks months, no entries yet

247
i still see higher tbt but think TLT has a bounce in it

246
long TLT 9003 here, scalp swing,,,or can short 2x TBT

213
on 25% of USO left now,,,may re-enter, lkater

207
mental stop 3826 uso for half of remaing half,,,i always keep 25% at breakeven stop, lower

205
uso is v close to resist now,,,watching careful here for stall or break higher or move lower, scalp R, 3835 last, near its posted trgt

202
about 1% prof in uso, 2%ish on  uco 2x

202
taking off half the uso here 3826 to guar profits, hold other half


201
uso emerg stop hard at 38.12 in case of sudden down move

157
USO daily has the adam in adam/eve bull pattern,, so whipsaw and chop in oil would be normal in coming days, if eve forms

151
uso 60min has bull flag, which i'm trading inside

134
USO SCO just hit 3822 scalp trgt, 0.95% / 1.8% profit,,,,

125
3822   3837 USO scalp trgts,,,will watch reaction at .22 to see if taking it off there of holding longer, last .14,, tricky in oil cuz of us dollar bullish basing

107
IBM puts are starting to look like they could work around here,,maybe let it go higher, or enter on break of support

1255
uso may want 3725 or lower for swings, options,,,just a scalp for now, may hold as initial swing entry if it doesnt go anywhere,,,

1245
3820 scalp trgtr uso

1244
going long USO here 3793 , small starter position,,,for scalp swing,,,not spot for options entry imo,, UCO is the 2x long oil alternative

1232
still short euro via EUO from yest, 0.80% roi atm,,,ibm 0.14%, spxu --1.26% red, vxx 0.25%, dba short still,,holding all for now

1224
USO UCO oil are starting to form long swing patterns, no entry yet, may take another few hours , unknown,,60min needs to pb more imo b4 entry

1209
cancelling TZA scalp order, never filled

1207
DBA small candle daily but starting to fill small gap,,,may be cracking,,,still short dba from yest, agric swing

1201
1440 last

1200
1434 tza lim if filled

1158
tza 1440 almost ready, no entry yet

1154
WOW silver just took a hit lower, 3min, no pos there

1153
my tza trgt to buy yest was 1417, it hit 1420 near that trgt but didnt entr,,,wanted to see sideways first

1152
lim buy tza 1422, last 1439,, for scalp,,, will prob pay higher but order is there for now,,, this is a small position for dinner money only,,, may need to try a few times or take losses

1146
using tza instead of spxu for scalp since it looks like tza has about twice the daily range

1142
TZA 60min has bull harami on it, but unconfirmed, so i am trying to trade the pullback b4 the confirm with expect of confirm later, based on 3min charts, also watching macd rsi

1137
looking for entry in TZA for scalp/ swing combo,,,if it hits day trgt i'll sell else keep as swing,,,no entries yet

1110
1298 es trgt , test low, no position just watching,,
..............................
well i have the spxu swing from yest currently red 1.3% but not from today,,,still see higher spxu, lower es  spx for swings

1103
prob wont get filled, but have an order to double my position DBA Mar 19 2011 32.0 Put,, for 5 cents lim, last  .15/.25

1049
CANCELLING order lim to add vxx 2953, will do manually, never filled, still have the starter position 3035 cost from yest

1042
caution: VXX is very wild and only for aggressive trades, or in small size positions to allow for wide stops, imo vxx should only be part of a mixed portfolio with other positions mixed in

1031
2953 vxx lim could work long, last 30.10

1013
yesterday i suggested today could be a spin top whipsaw day, thus far we have it on the daily candle in ES,,, breaks of support could cause a bigger candle but for now we have chop within a small candle spin top / doji

1011
still waiting for SLV long opp to present, none found yet, missed yesterdays nice pop up,,, still see a pb comoing in slv,,,watching to see if "go long" swing slv develops b4 "go short swing"

1010
IBM at 60min support here, could bounce or sideways, but real trgt 1 is 162.15 lower, last 16287 from 16325 short entry,,, other swing target IBM is to fill the gap 15300ish  151.52ish

1000
IBM is not pariticpating in the rally on spx 3min chart, ibm 3min down

913
VXX is up nicely pre-market, IBM is down (good for shorts), euro is down (good for shorts),

........... Corn is higher (but staying short tho red right now)

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY,  AUGUST 15, 2009  titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Tuesday's ramblings

356
out of JNJ long for profit, took loss in the MCD long, BAC gave 2.5--5% profit today, out of all the longs

355
have some new shorts but starter positions,,,think we may see a doji or spin top tomorrow

341
if MCD werent in such a tite range the last several hours i would exit here, but waiting until closer to 4pm since range so tite may break higher,,,stop is same in case of move down

310
LOL this MCD is reaally stuck in the mud here,,,not moving,,will exit today this long,,,tho i see mcd higher, too risky with es up here, can always reenter,,,stops r set still at .32,,hopefully higher exit, last .50

243
i will limit buy TZA 14.17,,,may not get a fill but already have shorts elsewhere

233
taking 20 cents profit on vxx here for scalp makes sense,,,holding swing for higher targets

232
3min VXX continues rising....bearish spx

228
shorted IBM here, 163.25, short #1 of poss 2, been watching waiting last 4 days

218
possible spinning top candle tomorrow, spx

213
OUT of JNJ, finally hit stop....profits locked

212
i will wait in nflx longer ,,maybe short tomorrow

209
2 cents from JNJ profit stopout

144
i bought EUO here cuz it touched its 60min support line and is getting smaller candles sideways

142
position 1 of possible 4,may only buy twice

142
i'm taking a position in EUO finally here 1888,,, which is short euro etf, after waiting 3 days

128
very surprised they didnt run my stop on JNJ, v close, within 3 cents

119
VXX is moving up,,,may put pressure on es, 3min

118
3 cents away from stopout on JNJ,,,may run my stop,,not changing

114
raising jnj stop 6052 from 6043 to protect profits

106
raising stop on JNJ long to 6043

103
 i'm planning to exit the long swings today,,lock profit b4 it disappears

1251
MCD buy alert, first one today, at 81%,,,,lets see if it can move it out of the mud

1241


DBA Mar 19 2011 32.0 Put46 Days to Expiration



1240
i bought some PUTS on DBA, early entry,, 0.25/0.30

1234
stop JNJ 6002 ,,for a free ride up if not stopped, last 6047,, trying for 6100ish target

1230
anyone see possible bear broadening formation on ES daily???

1226
*73.32

1225
73.34 stop on MCD, for a small loss if stopped out, if .46 breaks then likely reentry at better price, dont want to be in this with no movement and ES up here, unless the .47ish holds

1221
LOOK at ES daily volume, bearishly low on up day, swing shortable

1217
 still watching for swing short euro entry, none found yet,,,waiting last 3 days

1214
longs, i will try to exit JNJ and MCD swings today if possible, and then re-eval poss re-etnries ,,, to take profit and reenter,,,es getting at extended levels here

1213
still waiting on long silver slv,,,maybe 2685 level to buy, will see if gets there what charts look like, last 2760

1209
poss bull inv HS on VXX 60min

1204
adding some VXX here 3035,, scaling in vxx gradually with up to 6 purchases, purchase #1 here

VXX is NOT MAKING NEW LOWS or even testing its prior low, depsite new ES highs,,,bearish for es, bullish for vxx


1201
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
MCD still red 00.25%, stuck in the mud

1159
almost 5% profit on BAC in one day

1159
but thats why one strategy is to hold 25% of shares for cases like this

1159
BAC is on steroids today, exited 75% of shares on that much to early,,,,last 1434 from 1367 entry on remaining shares

1155
conversely the long hedges continue to do their job

1155
reddddddddddddddddd
my spxu short is red atm but still a valid trade, next i'll add tza but no entry yet,,,will wait at least 1 hour on tza since already exposed via spxu

1150
SPX continues to follow the "oil pattern" from Dec /Jan i've been referring to last several days,,,sideways,,,agree on a bad end,,,just takes time for distrib

1144
if JNJ can close over here, it has bullish reversal daily engulfing pattern (excluding shadows, or close to pattern depending on ones defin)

1141
wow JNJ is moving now,,,exhibiting that "suddeness" characteristic it has

1140
JNJ just overshot its mini 6025 trgt, 6029 last,,
6100ish is approx swing trgt #1

1126
JNJ daily has a tendency to have small candles and then suddenly boom a big one, so can appear sluggish in swings till the big one comes

1124
JNJ 2min has both bull asc tri and bull inv HS

1115
6025 next mini trgt, JNJ, last 6010

1113
ES charts suggest some whipsaw sideways moves now, mcd and jnj may go up during such

1112
MCD and JNJ took a little beating down,,,they may now use those stocks to hold up the dow, still see higher on both,swing

1102
higher hi would set up nice bear diverg on 60min

1056
i think i might use PUTS instead of directly shorting nflx,,,one stock i'm reluctant to directly short, no entry yet

1048
nflx i am  looking short swing but prob no entry today,,looks like another 4 hours of work needed first

1022
long JNJ is at breakeven now

1019
MCD is in a sideways shuffle pattern on the daily so this is "ok" for now to me

1018
but i remain long mcd swing, may add to it later, no new entries yet

1018
....................................................
MCD long hedge is DOWN, red here, despite spx higher, red a half-percent right now

1007
BAC hit 1404 or one cent over 1403 target, tho i exited b4 then for fear of quick drop

1006
shorted spxu when es 1296

1005
spxu since this is 25% starter, i'll pay a lil extra,,,may go lower but should at least bounce back above this

1004
1751 spxu, in

1003
*17.42

1001
limit i'll buy SPXU 17.40 if filled, 25% size for scalp swing combo,, spxu is 3x short of SPY SPX

957
notice how vxx daily is not near its 2908 low (when ES made 1299.50 high),,bearish for spx swings

954
next swings looking at: back in long vxx (bearish spx trade), long slv, and short euro,,,,they all need at least an hour to pass b4 setup presents,,,may not be today on the euro short

for vxx, a scalp may present sooner


940
stopped out, took profits 1393 BAC from 1367 entry yesterday

938
or stop is at 1393, whichever comes first

937
BAC is almost at 1403 trgt,,,where i will take profits,,,i see poss higher but will try for pullback reentry later if valid

922
i have limit sell BAC 1403, from 1367 cost, last 1386

916
ES hit the 1290 trgt from yesterday

913
Silver is up 0.70% vs 0.34% for gold, yesterday i mentioned that silver should outperform gold.  Should have entered long silver yesterday but didnt. if able, will enter on pullback or consolodation chart pattern

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".
* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009  titled "Disclaimer".