Tues thoughts

356
new PUTS position in STD, 40/45 cents........STD Feb12 7 Put

351
Took the 70% profits on HGG puts and will look to reenter,,,still have other PUTS in other posted positions

342
AA has gone red for the day, even if doesnt close under yest low, HUGE red daily candle on AA

335
vxx made the 3063 trgt,,,watching to see if it hits next trgt b4 close

334
VXX close to T1--3059 last

324
3063 vxx would give 3100 trgt b4 the close if 3063 breaks higher, last 3045

323
EXC 4110 last,,,approaching the .80 trgt from this morn

321
also happened to hgg for 2 days on the 60 min, then HGG dropped 16% one day later

320
they have not let EXC up for air at all today, often this means a gap down on the next day, that's what happened to our shorts in KSS a few days back

305
oil still near low of day, uso

218
EXC has 10 consecutive candles on its 15min chart with a lower low

216
thinking uso breakable partly due to CL futures volume on 3min

215
USO oil testing its low of day now,,,looks breakable

215
v bearish 15min and 3min charts on EXC

214
i might take some profit on EXC today, usually dont take same day on options, but up 20% since entry this morn,,,but waiting longer, esp since it may test 4088 (poss profit area if tests)

200
HGG lkikely will make an ABC correction off todays 16% drop from yest,,,one could take short profits at B and then reload shorts at C again

148
VIX 60min chart has a vix bull diverg on it, vix 22 test higher trgt

120
the EXC options PUTS are off to a good start, up 12.5% since entry this morning,,still have half HGG puts after taking 65% profit

111
still holding tlt and tmf swings,,,see higher on both in coming days weeks

1246
EXC, i'm looking for a 10% move lower, similar to KSS and HGG moves

1244
if DB breaks under 34.70, then trgt is 3407, with 32.50 swing trgt

1204
HGG just keeps moving lower, now down 16% from yesterday at 11.00 last vs 13.13 yest close. Options PUTS up 64% overnight, may take profit on half today

1034
Because it is a foreign bank, DB daily chart shows many gaps, but is fun / profitable to trade - DB - DEUTSCHE BANK AKTIENGESELLSCHAFT


 
1029
Bought EXC Feb12 41 Puts at 0.75

936
HGG now at 11.81 vs yest close 13.10,, HGG has gapped down 10% this morning! SImilar to the KSS from last week

935
AA FEB puts remain at loss for now, HGG puts have a gain

934
Added DB Feb12 35 Put at 2.75/2.90

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Updated: Possible new trades, with charts

Monday UPDATE

Charts below are from Friday.

I might buy PANL long on Tuesday tomorrow.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Friday
Considering positions in these stocks. Will do further analysis on them, and watch for intraday buying opportunities on Monday and soon after.

SHORTS - Shorts.  no charts on these yet.  These were down on higher volume Friday.  MMYT, CHIM,EWP,  COST, DB, ANGO, SGK, MHGC, LFC, CS, CSC, IART, short ULE (or long EUO),  JO, HAO, UEFN, 

Other SHORTS STOCKS: LTD, CVH, THI, TDC, CATO, ST, G, BBVA,

SHORTS ETFS: COW, CHIM, 

LONGS are below, with charts.

HLF, RRC, DDS, PANL have volume over 1 million.

CRR Long, may be ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0.

UA. Long, ready to buy on Monday, or on a break over recent resist. MACD hist also ready to cross over 0. Higher Low on Stoch.

HLF. Long.

BJRI. LONG.

PANL. Long.

DDS.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

413
Alcoa Announces Fourth Quarter Loss on Charges Associated with Cutting High-Cost Smelting Capacity, Market Weakness,,, afterhours jumped up to around 9.60, then fell back to 9.41 last, vs 9.43 close of day 4pm


 
 
351
took off rbn profits in 5073 area

343
5147 trgt for now on rbn, last 5073

342
if RBN happens to get over 5085/5100 today it can really pop into the close, tho not expecting that,watching

341
long RBN pushing up a bit into the close, preparing to take profits on partial shares, maybe all of it

247
swing,,,oil has stalled at the 101.50ish area, still holding the shorts from above

244
looking for 52---53 RBN, last 50.25

240
 i have AA puts---if they move from earnings, i'll take profit,,,if not then will hold

239
holding the puts thru earnings report, red 30% atm but they are feb not jan puts,,,seee lower regardless of earnings reactions b4 feb expir

237
i will prob exit the RBN longs today

233
may add more vxx later, on break over resist at higher levels

230
After 5 days, VXX looks ready.  VXX Feb 18 2012 32.0 Calls here 2.65/2.69

1203
or aggressive entry here 100.50 with 100.90//102.12 stop area could work

1202
poss intraday oil scalp may present between 100.80 and 101.25 on 3min chart, still forming not ready yet,,,remaing short oil friom swing perspect

1142
here comes the shortable 3min oil rally mentioned b4,,,not ready yet tho,,,for 3min chart trades not swiongs

1111
daily TLT has bounced up off its ABC corrective move, 121.50, 124, and 127 swing trgts on daily charts

1110
oil broke, new intraday daily low :)

1108
if ES stays under 1271 for more than 15min,,imo bearish intraday reversal,,on 3min charts not daily

1106
there goes tlt,,,119.10 trgt broken higher, for 120ish next,,,the 15min chart "should be " bullish for next hour,,,bullish for swings next few days forward

1103
intraday 3min chart on oil, next bounce (if it bounces) would be shortable C of ABC type move, 3min chart not daily

1100
TLT is right at 119.11 target now, and it looks breakable up to next trgt 120

1050
TLT now just about 15 cents away from clearing its breakout trgt 1

1030
oil has rallied a little, but still under the bearish #,,,oil rally intraday compared to ES rally,,,oil much weaker

1008
HGG Feb 13 puts still valid imo, only at 4% profit now, see a new daily lows in HGG

1007
OIL has broken support marginally as expected, under 100.86,, any rally that stays under 101.50 imo woiuld be bearish, still holding the oil shorts for now

1004
TVIX over 27.03 might get me interested on the long side tvix, maybe sooner, still waiting now for last 5 days

959
still have tlt swing long and TMF,,,tlt still needs to get over same # 119.25ish,,it looks ready to break in coming hours, maybe today or tomorrow,,118.77 last

953
es swing shorts i am waiting,,,for swing shorts, i'm looking at a test of ES 1260-65 area, then a bounce to a lower high on the 60min charts, with smaller candles on 60min and break of small candle support signaling a swing short entry

942
oil now testing Fridays low,,looks breakablve lower

939
AA puts are currently at a 25% loss, but holding them , still expecting lower AA in coming days weeks, and possibly lower tomorrow as AA reports earn today

9:38 AM
SCO up almost 2% this morn, still holding the oil swing shorts.But oil needs to break the 2 existing support levels to "really move" lower

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

333
higher dollar should be good for oil shorts

332
83.00 target for DX futures , 81.60 last, in coming days

241
/DX futures US dollar daily chart is buillish, good for uup and EUO

226
TLT bullish next 30-60 mins as long as it stays over 118.50

220
at this time of day, TLT "could" push right thru 119.10 without the usual stall at resist test, watching, 118.90 last

217
100.30 approx oil trgt interim, on break of 100.70

214
TLT now 15 cents from trgt 1 from yest,,,still see same there, with eventual break higher over 119.10

213
OIL now close to testing its daily low for third time intraday,,,still see lower oil

124
67.14 TMF here could work, or TLT 117.76

120
1271 and 1278 intraday ES supp resist levels, a break of either is likely to continue in direction of break

116
TVIX intraday suggesting move to 2580 area test could come,,2515 last

113
a break of 1272 lower would put the 3min ES chart pattern in a down bias for the succeeding 4 candles or 12 min after such break

112
82% confid sell signal, under 1276 is the key for it to remain

110
"IF" the ES breaks under 1270,,could be a wave 3 intraday move lower,,,while break higher over 1276 may give 1282 test,,,bias lower intraday atm,imo

105
TMF (3x treasuries) may do better than SPX shorts,imo

103
if TVIX tests 26.82 it will likiely break it higher, tho may pb first (i have no position)

1259
80% on sell signal ES now at 1274

1256
it is also "coincidentally" yesterdays high,,,interesting how tech analysis matches sometimes

1255
the 3 min hi/low measured trgt on TLT is about 25 cents, which gives TLT intraday trgt of 119.10 on break of 118.85 (118.85+.25=119.10),,,which "just so happens" to be yesterday's posted trgt 1,,they match

1247
78% now at 1273.50

1241
ES intraday sell signal just triggered at 1274.50 ES< at 74% confid

1240
CL oil bear flag broken lower, now backtesting higher

1221
ABOVE the market , if TLT gets over 119.27, might give an "add more TLT long" setup,swing

1220
OIL now testing its low of day,,,can break it this time ,,,watching reactions

1219
imo,,if it clears over 25.50ish is where i see VIX moving quickly higher,,same # as last week

1204
TLT now testing 15min resist,,,expecting break of it for test of 119.10, then still see eventual break over the 119.10

1157
15min chart bear flag on CL oil

1155
oil bounced up to the target area, and has been rejected at new resist,,,still see lower oil for swings

1032
yesterday, CL oil "almost" had one of those reversal days

1031
IF the ES were to hit 1255 today, and then close under 1265ish, it would be a bear key reversal day, with a higher daily high and also lower daily low than yest, with close near the low,,just something to watch

1021
oil now testing its low of day-

1020
if TLT tests 119.10 higher,,,it will likely break higher over it,,,could pullback first and stall, but should break over it afterward, on curr chart patterns daily and 60min, last 118.60

1004
oil could rally to 101.30--101.50 and still be bearish, swing, last 101.12

955
100.97 last,,, oil hit first trgt lower posted yest (101),,,still see lower tho

946
101.18 is an oil fib level, right near there now, may stall

943
101.36 oil now broken :)

941
there goes oil, now 101.36,,,near yesterdays AH support,,,if this break, great for shorts

938
OIL is now again below the 101.75 support level, and sustaining under here gives same lower targets as yest...watching to see if bounces here or goes sideways down

935
AA shorts via puts have recovered part of their loss, now red 15% vs 30% from yest, but they are feb puts so have time..i expect downard movement after AA reports earnings

932
RBN has gapped up nicely on a favorable earn report, still long RBN swing, up about 2.5% from yest close


* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

426
oil falling, now at 101.36 from 101.70 at 4pm

417
watching to see if AA gets a sell the news,after earnings report later,,,still have those puts at curr 30%ish loss,,which is easily offset by 288% profit taken this morn on KSS

414
if CL hits 101 afterhours here, may take some small profits on the oil shorts, since I added to it today...would only take profits on 25-50% of shares

408
hmm CL oil closed right at second entry,,closing just under support on a big red candle can be bearish

258
TLT 60min chart poss bull dbl bottom, inside the 60min bull falling wedge

255
127.40 poss SPY close today

237
FEB puts on USO could work too, tho i'm using SCO

236
FILLED on the additional order shorts,,,broken,

235
its late enough in the day,,,,i'll add to the oil shorts from 103 on a break under 101.70,,,101.77 last

234
amazing how OIL respects its support and resist levels,,, stalled right at .75ish,,,still see break lower for swing tho

231
no bull vol diverg on 15min oil,,it may break lower today

238
watching 101.70 oil trgt,,if it breaks then 99 trg lower on shorts....101.90 last oil

217
HGG Feb 18 2012 13.0 Puts at $1.15 look promising

128
RBN long from other day, is on the move higher now, still holding for swing targets higher

1132
RBN still looks good for long swing, small cap trade

1109
if oil breaks under 101.70 it could quickly fall another 1%,,its holding the test at support for now,,may add more shorts if it breaks 101.70, unsure, still short from 103 via sco

1107
spx and es may follow oil lower soon

1106
oil just had a high vol dump on 3min, last 102.28 from 102.81

1057
on the lower vol smaller stocks, still waiting on KSU long entry, may get one in next 4 hours,also watching RIC JVA

1045
3min later,,theres the 1263 ES break lower :)

1042
if ES breaks under 1263 on 3min chart,,,would put it in a sideways down bias for 9--12 minutes following that

1036
long TLT and TMF will prob outperform SPY ES shorts

1022
ES short scalp here 1265 could work


1014
TLT has clearede 118.60, last 118.92 ,,,watching if it can stay over 118.40

1008
VIX still needs to get over 25.50ish area, same # as yest, before "panic" imo,,last 23.05

1006
in about 1-2 hours,,,TLT will enter a bullish TLT next 4 hours up bias, if current trend continues, on 60min TLT charts,,has not confirmed or entered the bullish phase yet

1004
i continue to believe---watch TLT,,,TLT will almost always win the battle over SPY SPX,,,

949
 thats why i used puts on AA, because earnings is near, limits risk, tho generally i prefer the underlying directly due to options decay,,,but near earnings i tend to use options instead

947
1261 es likely wioll hold here on first test,,, but a rally that doesnt move over 1269ish would be bearish, and 1269ish ES could be an "add shorts" area if it does get there

944
OIL is also down nicely 1% this morn from yest entry, or sco up 2%ish

940
also still long tlt tmf,,,watch if tlt gets over 118.60, same # as yest, last 118.50

938
my AA shorts are red atm tho,,down 26% loss but they are feb puts and have time---on shorts i often like to use options to limit risk

935
from yesterdat, If you took the KSS kohl short via puts, you could sell this morning
for 288% profit....still see lower in coming weeks months but this is at trgt 1

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wede thoughts

340
they finally let KSS up for a little air after pressing all day, last 4739 from 4697 low and 4797 high

336
individ stocks present some good opps for long,,,but i dont like long swing the indices here, spx iwm

335
charts suggest higher TLT in coming days / weeks,,,which will put downward pressure on spx

316
VIX over 25.50 would be cause for concern for SPX bulls, its at 22.26 now, under 25.50ish,more of the same

305
118.30 3min resist has broke higher on TLT

305
a TLT move over 118.60 may see lower ES SPX,,last 118.35 in poss breakout higher on TLT intraday 3min chart

253
KSU has broken 70.50 and has a trgt swing of 78 if it can close over the broken resist for 3 days

252
since 4775 KSS today, they are not letting it up for air, last kohls 4710

233
TLT and ES SPX 3min are both moving higher, watching the inconsistancy....the 3min is intraday so it's diff,,,but swings/long-term,,TLT usually wins the battle over SPY SPX IWM,, as Bond traders are the smartest of all....something to watch

146
OIL short here 102.78 could work, 35.69 SCO 2x

144
FOR SWING,,small caps ideas, all long ideas but not ready yet,,needs either a PB or breakout over resist:  PHM  KSU  BPFH  RIC  PTX  ACHN  JVA 

135
> approx KSS trgts: 44, 42, to start,,,then 30ish

 i plan to use Jan and Apr PUTS for KSS
 
128
SHORT idea: short KSS on a bounce, not ready yet , swing,,could fall hard

1:20 PM
TMF in  add zone here at 66.26, or TLT 118.20, could work for both quick trade and swing

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

1150
50.11---50.13 bought RBN for long swing

1145
bought AA Feb12 9 puts at .53, for swing

1113
no entry yet, but i am considering RBN long swing, warning this is a lower vol stock, nice breakout on RBN over 1 month downtrend R line, but in a 3 month uptrend

1053
also AA has hit the "short zone" posted on thurs,,,i will prob trade that via options PUTS, $9

1035
VZ hit 4048 or one cent over its 4047 trgt posted on friday,,,

10:34
bought TMF 67.90 for swing and scalp both combo,,,is 2x treas

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".