Thurs thoughts

426
oil falling, now at 101.36 from 101.70 at 4pm

417
watching to see if AA gets a sell the news,after earnings report later,,,still have those puts at curr 30%ish loss,,which is easily offset by 288% profit taken this morn on KSS

414
if CL hits 101 afterhours here, may take some small profits on the oil shorts, since I added to it today...would only take profits on 25-50% of shares

408
hmm CL oil closed right at second entry,,closing just under support on a big red candle can be bearish

258
TLT 60min chart poss bull dbl bottom, inside the 60min bull falling wedge

255
127.40 poss SPY close today

237
FEB puts on USO could work too, tho i'm using SCO

236
FILLED on the additional order shorts,,,broken,

235
its late enough in the day,,,,i'll add to the oil shorts from 103 on a break under 101.70,,,101.77 last

234
amazing how OIL respects its support and resist levels,,, stalled right at .75ish,,,still see break lower for swing tho

231
no bull vol diverg on 15min oil,,it may break lower today

238
watching 101.70 oil trgt,,if it breaks then 99 trg lower on shorts....101.90 last oil

217
HGG Feb 18 2012 13.0 Puts at $1.15 look promising

128
RBN long from other day, is on the move higher now, still holding for swing targets higher

1132
RBN still looks good for long swing, small cap trade

1109
if oil breaks under 101.70 it could quickly fall another 1%,,its holding the test at support for now,,may add more shorts if it breaks 101.70, unsure, still short from 103 via sco

1107
spx and es may follow oil lower soon

1106
oil just had a high vol dump on 3min, last 102.28 from 102.81

1057
on the lower vol smaller stocks, still waiting on KSU long entry, may get one in next 4 hours,also watching RIC JVA

1045
3min later,,theres the 1263 ES break lower :)

1042
if ES breaks under 1263 on 3min chart,,,would put it in a sideways down bias for 9--12 minutes following that

1036
long TLT and TMF will prob outperform SPY ES shorts

1022
ES short scalp here 1265 could work


1014
TLT has clearede 118.60, last 118.92 ,,,watching if it can stay over 118.40

1008
VIX still needs to get over 25.50ish area, same # as yest, before "panic" imo,,last 23.05

1006
in about 1-2 hours,,,TLT will enter a bullish TLT next 4 hours up bias, if current trend continues, on 60min TLT charts,,has not confirmed or entered the bullish phase yet

1004
i continue to believe---watch TLT,,,TLT will almost always win the battle over SPY SPX,,,

949
 thats why i used puts on AA, because earnings is near, limits risk, tho generally i prefer the underlying directly due to options decay,,,but near earnings i tend to use options instead

947
1261 es likely wioll hold here on first test,,, but a rally that doesnt move over 1269ish would be bearish, and 1269ish ES could be an "add shorts" area if it does get there

944
OIL is also down nicely 1% this morn from yest entry, or sco up 2%ish

940
also still long tlt tmf,,,watch if tlt gets over 118.60, same # as yest, last 118.50

938
my AA shorts are red atm tho,,down 26% loss but they are feb puts and have time---on shorts i often like to use options to limit risk

935
from yesterdat, If you took the KSS kohl short via puts, you could sell this morning
for 288% profit....still see lower in coming weeks months but this is at trgt 1

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".