Monday thoughts

[14:45:21] adding tna 4694,
[13:08:47] es at 70% long scalp still. close to 72%

[13:07:42] ,if ES can get over 1320, low of day may be in imo
[11:46:03] AAPL testing it high of day rite now, watching reaction, see a higher hi imo

[11:16:29] TNA here 4782 could work long
[11:11:42] ES now at 70% scalp long signal, 1315
[11:06:14] aapl on 70% intraday long buy scalp, at 586.00,,,may help spx

[11:04:06] nugt entry is a bit early even for scalp, about 9 minutes early, but trying at support here

[11:02:44] long NUGT

[10:47:54] next pullback in gdx may present long opps in gdx and nugt, scalp and or swing, on 3min charts if it pulls back, watching for possible entry

[10:05:47] AAPL up 1.4% today vs flat spy, so went with aapl

[10:02:44] long AAPL

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[15:55:13] exited ALTR 0.7%ish loss, holding other longs
[15:55:32] have "enough" long, want to reduce risk at expense of taking a small loss now on it
[15:55:42] small port, out
[15:28:57] NUGT small port, took the 4.3% profit, exited
[15:29:02] large port, holding some swing
[15:29:16] will look to reenter later nugt,


[14:37:08] TLT selling at 2--3pm hour is not good for TLT, and is often helpful to spx

[14:35:10] TLT looks headed to 124.50 lower, helping the spx

[14:23:55] TLT did not make .40, was rejected at .30, good for spx bulls intraday

[14:07:58] if TLT gets over 125.40 it could cause some chop on the spx ripple affect
[14:08:06] 125.16 last tlt

[13:29:27] watch to see if nugt breaks out here
[13:29:35] i think it can, tho resist is resist till broken

[13:24:05] still holding all shares of NUGT in small port, at 3% gain from entry this morn but holding it for the higher prices

[13:20:38] took small 1.3%ish profit on FRX from yest,,,its below trgt, still see higher but have other longs so exiting here, and will look to buy back later

[13:15:17] TLT now approaching 125 area, a move down from 127ish high today, 2%ish,,,

[12:38:42] FRX has marginally broken yesterday's high on its first try, bullish for frx,,,and yest high was a break over rectangel resist on daily chart

[12:12:38] FRX hit 3554 or a few cents from prior hi made yest, watching to see if it can break over this area to next trgt zone

[11:45:17] small port i plan to hold the FRX thru the test of 3560 and probable pullback on test, pb would be normal, but its a swing so i'm holding it, not actively trading it unless the decline from test is "too big", if that happens then will re-eval

[11:42:05] FRX looks headed to test 35.50/35.60 area, and possibly break it higher, daily chart

[11:39:18] that was 3min decline on gdx chart,,,could stil head lower b4 it finishes tho its bouncing again now,,,expected possibility of lower than this, if that was "it" for the 3min decline, would be bullish intraday for gdx nugt

[11:18:03] small port nugt: i intend to hold this all the way thru the next 3min chart decline and bounce all way back up, unless it just decides to surge higher first,,,

[11:05:20] large port nugt at 2.5% + trgt on partial shares, holding small port 100% shares longer

[10:50:08] large port makes sense to take quick 1.2%ish gain on nugt,,,small port holding all share for higher
[10:50:23] nugt

[10:29:39] will scalp and or swing NUGT, like yesterday
[10:28:35] long NUGT, i bought a bit earlier than expected, looks like a pop here possible

[10:20:56] next pb in GDX NUGT looks tradeable long imo, watching for entries,


[10:01:34] TLT back in the re-short area 127, or tbt tmv longs,,,,waiting for re-entry but the setup is forming


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday thoughts

[16:04:17] there is a candle pattern name for today's spy, its a bearish meeting line, which is "less bearish" than the more reliable dark cloud cover
[16:04:31] HOWEVER, it is a REVERSAL pattern, meaning a change from bull to bear
[16:04:52] 2 days of green candles often is not "enough" for a trend using candle patterns
[16:04:58] they work better with more candles,

[14:42:54] 72% es long scalp signal

210
spy candle is red, but an spx close over 1311 is still not deep into yesterdays candle and that will often cause problems for shorts

144
FRX broke over resist to new multimonth highs today, above the rectangel...is it a false breakout? we will know in coming days

[13:38:50] exited UTIW with 1%ish loss, small starter position that never got added to, still see higher utiw but i'm out cuz of its massive move today higher after a post earning rept low

[13:19:10] 70% ES long alert rang, scalp intraday only,,,es may pullback b4 72% is hit

[13:11:37] poss 60min bull flag in frx

[13:10:51] FRX 15min dbl bot, daily uptrrend


[13:08:51] went long FRX


[12:34:52] UTIW dug itself out of the hole, conserv traders would exit here this swing with a 1.5% loss and try to buy later,,,i will hold it in both small and large ports, since the position is small and it looks higher in coming days weeks to enter the profit zone


[12:35:18] rallied from 1380 low to 1550+, last 1540ish


[12:31:28] long here ALTR, actively trading if it moves up to scalp, else swing

[12:16:42] nugt near 1247 trgt, tryoing for 1277 on small port if able,,,watching carefully and actively trading the large port

[12:11:34] out of wmt, 3 cent loss,, i may regret exiting WMT but it was early entry and did not act as expected, it may try another 1% higher b4 lower

[12:08:44] this coming move lower on ES may be bought, i will likely exit WMT and look to re-enter, still waiting for now

1155
[11:55:04] large port could take 25-50% of share on nugt off for quik 2.2% gain,,,small port holding

[11:52:18] nugt hit 1193 trgger, watching for 1247 next

[11:50:57] conserv traders on WMT would exit here breakeven and look for better entry point, for now i remain in WMT tho

[11:45:07] if nugt hits 1192, then 1247 intaday trgt

[11:42:10] if WMT cannot make a lower low on the 3 and or 15min charts, likely to exit it and try again, actively trading it for now

so positions i trade actiuvely,, other i just let sit n bake

[11:40:46] may 24 support test gdx

[11:39:37] theres a bull diverg on 3min GDX so trying to trade it actively here, it is early, its also at support on daily else i'd wait,,,but trying, see what happns


[11:36:28] added more nugt to give enough shares to scalp,first entry was starter only, entry 2 of poss 4
[11:36:43] added on small port also,

[11:25:04] NUGT is v volatile, size accordingly

[11:24:07] long NUGT here, just entered, starter positino may add later, will also actively trade NUGT and take profits today if it moves, looks set for intraday bounce, then pullback

[10:10:06] WMT short is 4 to 12 hours early per the daily and 60min charts, but want some exposure to it, may add more later

[10:08:01] Market maker reports on WMT, for swings, suggests they are holding up price but shorting into it, when they pull the bid it shyould drop nicely, may take some days to move

[10:02:48] WMT combo swing and scalp short,,,still holding longs in other stocks, long and short both, but the charts on them look much diff

[10:00:34] SHORTED new pos in WMT

[09:50:10] cotton should move 10-15% higher imo

[09:37:04] out of stx from 2216 here at 2369, is not up with the ES so will look to reenter later
 [09:37:54] only 6.9% gain, still see the higher targets on STX seagate, but not happy that its not participating in this pop on ES so will look to active trade it and buy again later

[09:28:49] es is trying for that 1333-1335, i'm not shorting even there if it gets there b4 10AM, too tricky on high vol open if it decides to break it higher (i dont think it will do that, but imo not worht risk)

[09:10:21] often averaging UP actually makes more $$$ than trying avg down


[09:09:10] my small position on UTIW is getting hit this morn,,,happens when u hold swings thru earnings, still think UTIW higher in coming days weeks, tho i am NOT adding to it or averaging down, at least not yet


[09:05:46] 1333ish ES intraday i may short the simple resist, for scalp only to start, if when it gets up there
 [09:06:13] however imo, if ES does get to 1335 ES, after a pullback it will break over 1335 later


[09:03:01] TLT shorts should do well, on a bounce, swings, via long tbt or tmv 3x imo
 [09:03:15] tlt short may outperform spx longs,,will have a mix of both

[08:57:15] cotton futures are flying high, up 5%, trying to break this viscious daily downtrend its been in
847
[08:47:25] looking for re-entries into TLT shorts, via tbt or tmv, possibly today, hoping for a bounce, should get one

840
TNA up nicely and close to yesterdays posted targets. taking profits pre-market or at the open makes sense, since I have other long positions in both small and large ports. If i didnt have other longs i might hold the TNA longer.

TNA at 17% profit gain from Monday posted entry.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wedn thoughts

imo,[16:40:54] some of that money in treasuries is from GS not necessarily smart money, and will be used to move the spx artifically higher
[16:42:35] all that TLT parabolic move was not from retail,,,the smaller retail uses bank savings accounts cash, not treasuries

[16:35:23] 1315--1320 area is a prior market maker active area, staying over that suggests higher b4 signif lower

[16:34:06] if ES is over 1320 at 930am, and does not get under 1314 by 1030am, could go to 1327--1335 b4 signif pb

[15:58:27] TLT hit its 125ish trgt tho the exit was early, will try to reload on a bounce,short, 127.10 last
[15:58:35] *125.1


[15:55:17] theres a possible bull W forming on SPX daily charts, speculation only since early stage formation

[15:51:37] if ES is over 1312 at 4pm, higher than 1312 at 415, and overnite at some point, likely
347
15min bull flag broke ES TNA, now trying for the higher hi

341
giving gdx  nugt 1 to 3 days to see what it does, ideally it will continue to move lower but not aggressively so, if that pattern forms then may re-enter long swings


[14:48:55] still waiting/ trying for the 49ish trgt on remaining TNA, or 77.00ish IWM

[14:33:59] ES 3min put in the lower low, 15min chart now trying to break its bull flag, ES

[13:50:57] if TLT can claw back to 126.50, may be re-shortable,,,still waiting to add, no reentry yet


[13:33:35] but 2pm may bring some wildness, may be best to just wait

[13:32:42] one more low on ES 3min charts may setup scalps, for quick hands, not there yet
[13:32:54] would also setup bull diverg, scalp only since its 3min charts

[13:30:23] the 3min ES chart has a mini bull flag on it, trying to break it higher for new intraday highs, but the 2pm reports reaction likely rules today, last ES 1308

[12:47:09] taking off half of stx 2360 from 2216 entry yest makes sense,
[12:48:49] gain on that piece 6.4%ish, real trgt was 7.5% but stalling here, still see higher STX seagate so keeping half

1239
multiweek months trgt on GDX is about 18% higher, NUGT 35--50% higher depending on nugt decay

[12:38:58] the pb suggests DUST to go higher first, but i'm not trading the dust for now

[12:38:16] watching for re-entry into long GDX or NUGT, too soon now,waiting for the 15min and 60min chart pullbacks, may take hours or few days to form, should look like a bull flag if it forms as expected, on sidelines now

1236
5080 swing trgt on TNA after interim trgts are hit

1215
7650ish IWM, TNA 4800ish trgts approx

[12:13:38] out tlt
[12:14:19] 5495 took profit on all but 25% shares in TMV
[12:15:12] from 5054 entry yest

still see higher TMV, lower TLT , but will try to reenter later.

[12:04:23] TLT breaking lower a bit now, watching to see how much it can push

[12:03:36] bull diverg on TLT 15min chart are starting to form but not baked yet,,,planning to exit the TLT short if it can move lower and finish the diverg, then re-short higher later ,,,if able

[12:01:05] TLT chart suggests it mioght get one more decent move lower today, if so may exit the small port TLT shorts via TMV long

[11:52:16] STX seagate up another 3.75% today, is at interim trgt here, but also close to next trgt which is abnother 2%ish higher from here

[11:35:07] IWM SPX SPY are all on "hold longs thru any 15min chart pullbacks" for multihour multiday swingts, imo

[11:32:45] thought: remember that SPX could dribble higher on small candles to form a wedge, it often happens on this type of pattern,,,and frustrates early short entries,,,imo early to swing short here unless willing to endure stops,

1100
short term plan for TLT shorts / TMV long: take profits if TLT gets near 125 (may 30 support), and hold it for next 4 hours, eval after 4 hours, then prob next 8-12 trading hours. right now its on a 4-12 hour hold short regardless of price action, will re-eval in 4 hrs time unless a large move comes lower first

Mid-term: same trgts on TLT, up to 10% lower on TLT, 20-30% higher TMV

last TLT 127.03
1053
TNA is now at the 5% higher posted trgt yesterday, but still holding it longer in small port for now,


1000
in coming days, SPX may want to retest its low, but over 1288 spx is bullish, it is also poss that 1288-1295 will hold and 1262 will NOT be tested

938
es 1300 overnite high, 1300.50

937
TLT hit yest posted trgt of 127 but holding for now, to see what it does with 126.50ish, if that breaks than should accell more selling lower

934
TLT continuing to move nicely lower, lots of room on downside for TLT,,,higher tbt tmv
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

358
1970ish first MIND trgt, then 22, then over 24 in time,,, if it sees 1970 i'll sell some on large port, hold small port longer

354
MIND surging b4 earnings here ,,,will be interesting, up 7%ish from yest on this volatile stock

339
TLT precarious here, approaching that "dont think it will make it today lowre" trgt

330
[15:30:31] still see much higher MIND, but note that: Mitcham Industries, Inc. (NASDAQ: MIND) announced today that it will release financial results for its fiscal 2013 first quarter ended April 30, 2012 after the market closes on Tuesday, June 5, 2012

326
normally i'd take profit on tlt shorts today, TMV long and try re-entry later, but i'm holding the remaining half due to the parabolic move up, similar to the false breakout lower awhile back that was followed by this massive move up

322
[15:21:25] VTNC :$ but holding it like a non expiring option, the stuff is volatile, still see higher later
[15:22:00] not adding any more vtnc atm, not cost averaging, down 10%ish atm

301.
TLT,,,not likely to close under 127.50 today, but if it did, could signal the top is in for it for now

259
TLT gapped down yest and today, so may not tomorrow, but still not at trgt so 3rd gap possible nonetheless

258
TLT imo is susepticble to a gap DOWN tomorrow

254
can also see it on 15min chart of IWM  TNA

254
3min TNA: has 2 successfull bull flags on it, broke higher at noon and 1:30pm, correlates with other stats for higher into close

234
STX is at scalp trgt 1.5% profit for second entry today, first gave 2.6%, makes sense to keep half and sell half here on scalps, swing trgts r same, higher

231
15min bull coil on ES, poss wedge forming

215
watch TLT next 45 minutes, see what it does

154
it "should" still break to new highs imo, but taking some off makes sense if many shares

153
considering trgt 1 hit at 1384, close enough,,,if scalping large ports makes sense to take 25-50% off, holding rest

147
74% usually means the first trgt will break higher, but who knows? "usually" also means "not always" LOL

146
es should get the frist trgt

142
pop trgt 1 is high of day, trgts 2 and 3 same as b4

 139,
ES hasnt popped like it usually does on a move from 72 to 74%, ,,its still at 74%

74% just rang for es pop higher, watching reaction, at 1280 es

1257
ES is almost ready to give a "pop higher" signal intraday only but hasnt rang yet,,,a move from 72%--74% would be the trigger, its close rite now

1250
ES needs to hold over 1274 else risk downside, over 1274 bullish intraday imo

[12:47:47] STX seagate now back in scalp long range if exited higher earlier today on scalp piece, swing trgts were higher, a scalp entry here is aggressive since the 15min chart may want more down b4 up...22.16 last

[12:43:58] *bull engulf not harami

[12:43:30] for candlewatchers,,,if IWM can close a bit higher than here, it will have a bull harami 2 day candle pattern that would be confirmed with a subsequent close over whatever todays high is,,,,in this case the harami might itself be a confirmation of yesterday's bull hammer


1236
127ish TLT trgt still

 [12:36:10] 1290--1305 es trgts,,, 

1233
ES action suggests a break over 1284.50 today imo, for a higher intraday high, last 1280

1120
TLT about halfway to its daily trgt lower, another 1% lower,,,for swings 5%, 15%, 30% trgts lowr in time

1014
STX at 2.6% profit target if scalping it from this morn, swing trgts 10-30% higher

1004
selling some TMV from yest, 2.5% large port,,,holding 100% shares in small port, from yest entry

1001
42.10 to 43.70 tna, still have half

1001
[10:00:50] ES now at resist, sctive longs might take profit here
[10:00:54] still see higher es later

large port TNA, half off, keeping half
 956
TLT could easily move 1% lower today (2% total), not saying it does but its do-able,,,was do-able yest also but didnt happn

[09:36:27] STX back in the buy zone now, for swings ,seagate


928
TMV (short treasuries 3x) is trading at about 1.5% profit area from yesterday posted entry,  active traders could take profit on some or all shares here, large port i'll take some off, small port i'll hold all shares for now
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

226
large port tna es upro scalp neart 1% profit on 25-50% of shares, small port has higher trgts instead on 100%+


103
4210 TNA here could work

103
70% es long scalp signal rang, may turn to 72% in next 3-9 minutes, at 1269 ES

945
Added more TMV here, to both scalp and swing, is 3x TLT short


920
whta a nite on ES futures, from a 9 pointish drop to 1262 to rally back up 17 points to 1279, volatile out there
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

258
[14:58:27] DIS long is allowing re-entry, if u went in at 4425 and out at 4600ish, its back to 4450ish now,,,its a dow component but not as heavily weighted,,,the daily DIS chart is impressive imo compared to DIA SPY

256
[14:54:59] i still believe that TLT is topping, headed 20-40% lower on the 1x,,,more on the 2 or 3x treas etfs
[14:55:44] this is the exact opposite of the prior TLT "long reversal" from 111 area


245
DGP gold up 8% today. closed position and will look to reenter gold later, still see higher gold

114
small port. exited AGQ silver, keeping gold, still see higher silver but wanted to take 4-5% profit b4 it disappears, Silver been fluctuating,,,still exposed via longs in gold that i'm holding, dgp


1159
AGQ nearing 5% profit, still holding for now. SLV at 27.83 last, nearing its lower trgts, but also higher targets for silver afterwards.

1025
For SLV AGQ, market makers imo are in "trade mode", they are buying then selling, but the bias is that they are trading long intraday atm, but taking quick profits and then re-entering. Intraday, that suggests longside entries on silver.

I continue to hold AGQ, 4%ish profit atm, same trgts for slv 2780--2815,, then 2860, then 2950, 3100
1006
AGQ silver is up, at 3%ish profit, but i'm going to hold it for now. If I were actively trading this, i would exit and re-enter, but for now i'll just let it sit. Active trading would take profit on 50-100% of shares. still have the dgp gold longs too.


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".