Tuesday, January 31, 2012

Tues thoughts

400
CHTR closed 5764, over the 5750 trgt,,bullish for quickSwing on it

356
CHTR has broken over 5750--now if it can close over it, would be good for the new entry

343
looking for CHTR to hurdle 5750 for a trip back up to 59.00, swing

327
idea: perhaps AAPL chart will say short aapl, tomorrow not today

317
CHTR long 5734

305
A look at SPY instead of ES gives some interesting insight, imo weakening of the SPX by looking at SPY.
Jan 26 has a dark cloud cover candle pattern that was confirmed when spy closed under that days low. we have a gap higher today followed by lower. stoch now at 66. we have an apparent lower high and lower low (seen on the daily but really on the 60min to be "pure").  CONVERSELY it makes sense to watch out for a poss bull flag or bull coil to be forming on the SPY daily charts, too early to tell now if its beginning of lower highs and lower lows, or instead a flag (since both the bear and bull patterns start the same way)


300
i'm not sure if TLT wants to put in a lower high on the daily, so being conserv, in case it doesnt test prior signif hi of  121.64

300
TLT has another 1-2 days on its quickSwing signal so i'll buy back TMF or tlt lower if the charts look good on any pullback

259
at TLT 120.90 i've taken 10% profits in TMF (related to TLT) on all but 25% small remaining positino

210
theres .77,,,watching reactions up or down here on TLT

209
hit .76 and stalled,,,hmm

208
120.77 is updated # for TLT, up from .70,,,i.e. needs over .77 instead

159
BRB....tightening stops on TLT   TMF while gone, to protect 9%ish profit, can always buy back if stopped

157
TLT right now has 1-2 more days left on its "long TLT  TMF" quickSwing from few days ago,,,will likely take profit on half of it today, early, before signal expir

155
if TLT can hit 120.70, that would be minor new daily high over yest, and may trigger more up on TLT   TMF....tlt already has a minor break over yesterdays high, that would be #2

1246
1307 ES rejection thus far, still is resist #

1156
TLT has broken yesterdays high on the first try :) .... but to be fair its only a marginal break, watching to see if it sustains, and reactino here

1155
there goes EUO at 1992 from 1970 entry yest,,,still holding for higher

1150
i consider this as a test of yest hi on TLT,,,will it break higher on the first try? or pb to 119.80 first? TLT has the chart pattern capable of breaking higher on first try, with only small pb if any, but watching reactions,,,makes sense to take prfotis on half here if havent already,,,TMF at 9% profit from entry few days ago so nothing wrong with taking off half and buying back on pullback if one comes

1143
i would wait for the ES 3min to go higher, and then buy pb, instead of long here,,,keeping the shorts from 1316 with stops set as posted b4

1135
TLT is now just 20 cents from yesterdays high,,,still see a break higher over it

1124
HPQ huge red daily candle, tho THAT short is underwater atm

1117
es supp at 1300-1303 so may try bounce here, but may be small, watching

1117
watching 1307 Es,,,good spot for a stop on ES shorts scalps from 1316 and or 1310,, mental stop 1307ish to see reaction, hard stop 1310.75 could work

1114
CHRW moving nicely lower, may take 50-100 of shares off for profit on it today, still waiting for now, from entry 2 days ago

1103
with TLT moving higher,,,they may not let ES up for air today

1100
still trying to sell TMF at same trgt of 7175, last 6873 (also TLT)

1047
EUO just hit its first trgt of 1980,,watching to see if can break yest high

1045
there goes 1307 :) es

1020
or alt one could do EUO 1970 here,,,its resist is a bit higher and might make for an easier trade

1019
this is not the ES 3min bounce as it moves a lil to 1310, but v active traders could reshort if they covered half at 1307 trgt

1016
if es  1290 cracks i see 1270-75 next

1013
VXX or VXX calkls could work nicely ABOVE vxx 2750

1012
the first bounce on ES should be shortable, 3min charts, when it gets one

1010
bad housing # may present a nice entry long into PHM which i've been watching as posted before,,,no entry yet, i believe PHM will retest higher but not ready yet

1008
ES just hit its 1307 area trgt,,,watching reaction now,,,this is v impt support, imo

1005
looking for EUO to move up to 1980 for test,,,if it breaks it then EUO calls and underlying should hit their targts also,,1972 last

1004
TLT just hit the .61 trgt,,watching for follow thru higher now,,,expecting a high over yest hi on TLT

1003
saving half of the ES shorts, for poss nice drop if supp breaks...also TLT trying to go after .61 trgt for above mkt long trade idea

1003
1310.25 hit, considering 1310 trgt hit, half off for almost 6 points in 40 min

1002
1307--1310 support ES,,,if that break watch out below, imo

1000
1310 es is first trgt from 1316 short, for scalp,,,swings have lower trgts of course, near yest low, and lower

958
imo, lots of resist 1315--1318, until its broken imo its intraday resist

956
119.60 TLT above the mkt is a buy, imo, last 119.42,,tho i wont add since already have TLT  TMF from lower

953
1315  ES is now intraday resist

947
CHRW continues lower too as expected, it broke yest low after gap up this morn :)

946
some nice heavy selling on the ANN shorts,,,watching if it can break that daily support tho, continues to hold it, tho see it breaking

944
ES just hit the BELOW market short trigger of 1314.50, tho i jumped in at 1316

943
nothings changed since yest at 3:50 PM,,,same trgts, same chartts,,,SPY put in a lower low on daily, now looking for thwe lower high, which may be forming atm

942
my QuickSwing signal for SPY spx remains on SELL SHORT, regardless if it goes higher,,,still says lower prices

939
1317.50 hit on es,,,considering the 1318 trgt hit, and looking for lower

932
shorted 1316. initial position

930
or short below mkt 1314.50

929
shorting the open ES 1318 could work today, imo

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, January 30, 2012

Monday thoughts

442
Bears step one accomplished: lower low, now needs step 2 a lower high pref at/under 1320 ES or 1322 spx,,,maybe the lower high was made today, we will know soon enough if the bears can pull off step 2,, else its more chop or higher

But bearish bias for now short-term, the SPY quickSwing remains on "Stay short since Friday's close", for another 1-3 days,,, there is no "midTerm" multiweek swing short setup

343
SPY quickSwing signal remains on "stay short from friday's close",, prob 1-3 more days on spy signal left for quick trade

340
CHRW quickSwing still valid to hold another day, alt could take profits here at today close,,,i remain short

338
EUO waking up into the close a bit here

331
looks like closing hour analysis is wrong today, it still says lower into the 400-415 time

305
closing hour analsis: bearish into final hour, not as strong as fridays signal,, the poss 3min dbl top has nothing to do with closing hour analysis, unrelated


305
ES poss bear dbl top on 3min chart, and 2 bear shoot stars

241
bought EUO Feb12 19 Call at .85 / .90, quickSwing

229
EUO looks good near here,

226
US Dollar looks like it wants higher tomorrow,,if so gold may go lower

139
SPY now near resist 131.15, prior support brokken turned resist,, then 132.00ish spy if it can break over 131.15ish,, but for now the 131.15ish is resist

134
121.47 TLT i'll take profits on 50-75% of shares, if it hits there, will also take profit on  TMF there for 13% profit

124
getting choppy here now on ES

110
TLT did make higher daily highs today as expected, and doesn't look finished yet

106
if 122 TLT is tested, if it makes it up there, i believe it will go over 122 (after normal possibl pullback)

1226
i'm not saying it was a flash crash warning,,,but it's weirdness similar to that,  intraday only, similar to FOMC wedn 2pm volatility measures reactions

1225
an "unusual event" just triggered, strange, and may mean a sudden move in ES and in individ stocks, bearish bias,,,no way to measure % confidence on it, but watching for "something" to happen in 3mins--1 hour, at ES 1304

1220
the VXX 1/26 green candle pattern, with other indic, suggest 2900ish VXX test,,,and 3200 if 2900ish breaks (approx targets only)

1205
we may get a nice quickSwing setup on short oil, or long sco, but i'm waiting until 2pm-4pm to decide,,,for a hold 1 hr--3 days with likely exit tomorrow or next day

1138
watch out for TLT---it looks like it wants to make new daily highs, TMF is already up 4.5% from Friday and and 10.02% from entry post

1134
LINE short looks good here, for both quicktrade 1 hour--3 days and  midterm swing days weeks, still short via april puts but quicktrade would use earlier expir puts,,, 3680 LINE looks breakable lower

1112
1302 es shorts could work here, 76% confid sell signal but its on the 3min charts not 15 or 50 min, so for scalp

1056
fwiw, Friday's closing analysis that said "gap down monday" is also saying no swing longs yet, on spx spx es

1054
considering etf MLPL alerian, or some of its components individ, no entry yet, LONG

1039
however, still waiting for ANN and HPQ shorts to "kick in" :(

1037
TLT TMF are also up nicely this morn, tmf up almost 4%,, looks like TLT found its bottom on 12/5 as i posted was possible

1036
On Monday I suggested we get a gap down on SPY SPX today, got a nice gap lower, good for shorts

1035
Fridays 1314 ES "quick short" 1-3 days is working, also the Friday near close CHRW quick short, still holding both

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, January 27, 2012

Friday thoughts

423
closing hour charts said ES to close under 1312 between 300-415pm,,,closed 1312.75,,,analysis failed

406
it looks like a good chance that the shorts will kick in next week and start to perform, swings

403
watching to see if they close ES under 1312 by 415pm

356
quicktrade 1-3 days on spy is"short" here at ES 1314

308
theres the short signal on es, 1313 last

303
1313--1315 ES initial entry #1 short area

303
charts suggest a close under 1312 ES, or a gap down on Monday possible even if ES rallies into close,,, SPX on a 4 hour bear bias imo

251
yesterdays "final hour close" analysis suggested "boring"...today it suggests more volatile possible, with bias down, unless something changes in next 11 minutes,,ES last is 1312

223
if TLT can get over 118.60 we may see a reaction lower today in ES SPX

222
2pm==3pm is impt time of day for tlt, and its moving up

214
As expected, TLT is now testing the 118 area with a nice move up intraday

152
CHRW shorts look good here at 6850ish for both quick trade (to take profit today or tomorrow) and mid term swing hold,,, same signal from yesterday's RIC long that gave 2.5% overnight

1041
poor VXX: ES down .36% and VXX down .45%,,,but if vxx holds here it could set up a bull morn star on vxx

1027
despite SPX weakness this morn, RIC quick trade popped up 2.5%ish from post yest. taking profits here makes sense for a quick trade, else could hold for new daily highs over yest.

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, January 26, 2012

Thurs thoughts

353
but we do have a daily BEAR dark cloud cover, almost the more bearish engulfing, today on the daily spy

352
may 2, july 8, oct 27 SPY was far from its 10 MA daily, despite todays bear candle, downside limited on first try on spy imo,,,

341
REN rejected pretty harshly at its 50 MA today, down 4% tho was up about 4% yest

333
RIC might be a nice quick trade, 1 hour to 2 days possible pop higher,,, 1187 last

307
we may have a boring last hour into the close on es spy today

243
SPY timing analysis says wait 1-3 days before buying spx, its halfway thru the signal so hard to tell how many days now,,,(or signal says remain short)

241
IF SPY closes near here, we have a bearish dark cloud cover reversal lower pattern on the daily charts

240
timing analysis says look at where TLT is in 1-3 days, in a "going higher" timeframe now, but watching to see how high it goes (a lot or a little)

153
look at aapl daily 9/21 and 10/18 big gaps up that went lower, i still see aapl 412-420 and may short it soon (not today),,,first time i'd be short aapl in a long time,,,have been trading long up to 444

131
watch TLT from 2pm--3pm,, looks like it wants higher

1036
MPEL hit its 1197 trgt, makes sense to take 20%+ profits and step aside for awhile

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, January 25, 2012

Wednesday thoughts

144
for swings it looks like TLT has found its bottom and is poised to go higher in the coming days/weeks, its  surging higher before the 2pm-3pm critical time of day, from 116 to 118 today

1031
despite all the excitement, i still see aapl 412--425 area, last 447 tho i'm not shorting it, at least not yet

1027
REDF down 14%, glad im out of it, tho a rebound for mid term holds higher is expected,,,will wait it settle awhile before buying it back

1025
SPPI longs are up 1.5% this morn despite the SPX down, still holding for same higher targets in SPPI,,, perhaps the various shorts in AA HPQ STD SAP will begin to move from swing loss to swing profit area

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, January 24, 2012

Tues thoughts

528
AAPL  overshot the 444 trgt afterhours and may want 412-425 despite this surge

452
aapl at 460 now AH,,, watching for 412--425

436
fwiw, on QQQ nsadaq indice, my "swing long add more" has been on "WAIT" since Jan 6 and hasnt given an "add long" thru this move up,,,oftentimes the move will fail when it does that. the "add longs swing QQQ" is looking like it would give an add signal bounce in 1-3 days,, that is, since Jan 6 its been on "hold longs from lower levels but do not add or enter new positions"

409
i'm still interested in REDF again after taking profits other day, but still waiting 1-2 more days given current charts. rigth now redf is acting as expected.  still have SPPI long and the various shorts

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, January 23, 2012

Monday ramblings

1055
ANN having trouble here, i remain short for now, but 2350/2450 would be bullish bearish moves under or over either one, watching reactions at its support test now

956
i will hold half SPPI longer: the daily --was a 6-7 day bull flag that i entered at bottom of flag on friday,,has broken the flag higher this morn

931
SPPI hit it first target this morning at 16.00, for 5% profit on that piece in one day since Friday entry, wth 1602 high.  I still see higher SPPI for swings

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".