Monday thoughts

442
Bears step one accomplished: lower low, now needs step 2 a lower high pref at/under 1320 ES or 1322 spx,,,maybe the lower high was made today, we will know soon enough if the bears can pull off step 2,, else its more chop or higher

But bearish bias for now short-term, the SPY quickSwing remains on "Stay short since Friday's close", for another 1-3 days,,, there is no "midTerm" multiweek swing short setup

343
SPY quickSwing signal remains on "stay short from friday's close",, prob 1-3 more days on spy signal left for quick trade

340
CHRW quickSwing still valid to hold another day, alt could take profits here at today close,,,i remain short

338
EUO waking up into the close a bit here

331
looks like closing hour analysis is wrong today, it still says lower into the 400-415 time

305
closing hour analsis: bearish into final hour, not as strong as fridays signal,, the poss 3min dbl top has nothing to do with closing hour analysis, unrelated


305
ES poss bear dbl top on 3min chart, and 2 bear shoot stars

241
bought EUO Feb12 19 Call at .85 / .90, quickSwing

229
EUO looks good near here,

226
US Dollar looks like it wants higher tomorrow,,if so gold may go lower

139
SPY now near resist 131.15, prior support brokken turned resist,, then 132.00ish spy if it can break over 131.15ish,, but for now the 131.15ish is resist

134
121.47 TLT i'll take profits on 50-75% of shares, if it hits there, will also take profit on  TMF there for 13% profit

124
getting choppy here now on ES

110
TLT did make higher daily highs today as expected, and doesn't look finished yet

106
if 122 TLT is tested, if it makes it up there, i believe it will go over 122 (after normal possibl pullback)

1226
i'm not saying it was a flash crash warning,,,but it's weirdness similar to that,  intraday only, similar to FOMC wedn 2pm volatility measures reactions

1225
an "unusual event" just triggered, strange, and may mean a sudden move in ES and in individ stocks, bearish bias,,,no way to measure % confidence on it, but watching for "something" to happen in 3mins--1 hour, at ES 1304

1220
the VXX 1/26 green candle pattern, with other indic, suggest 2900ish VXX test,,,and 3200 if 2900ish breaks (approx targets only)

1205
we may get a nice quickSwing setup on short oil, or long sco, but i'm waiting until 2pm-4pm to decide,,,for a hold 1 hr--3 days with likely exit tomorrow or next day

1138
watch out for TLT---it looks like it wants to make new daily highs, TMF is already up 4.5% from Friday and and 10.02% from entry post

1134
LINE short looks good here, for both quicktrade 1 hour--3 days and  midterm swing days weeks, still short via april puts but quicktrade would use earlier expir puts,,, 3680 LINE looks breakable lower

1112
1302 es shorts could work here, 76% confid sell signal but its on the 3min charts not 15 or 50 min, so for scalp

1056
fwiw, Friday's closing analysis that said "gap down monday" is also saying no swing longs yet, on spx spx es

1054
considering etf MLPL alerian, or some of its components individ, no entry yet, LONG

1039
however, still waiting for ANN and HPQ shorts to "kick in" :(

1037
TLT TMF are also up nicely this morn, tmf up almost 4%,, looks like TLT found its bottom on 12/5 as i posted was possible

1036
On Monday I suggested we get a gap down on SPY SPX today, got a nice gap lower, good for shorts

1035
Fridays 1314 ES "quick short" 1-3 days is working, also the Friday near close CHRW quick short, still holding both

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".