Friday thoughts

[12:59:13] needs to get of 1406 by 1:20 pm or the 72% will go lower

[12:57:37] 72% es bnc long rang 1404

[11:29:27] it is interesting tho that MM buy level happens to be exactly at 3min and 15min chart horiz support, tho their sell level marginally over hi by 2 pts

[11:26:51] curr mild Market maker selling, nothing agressive,,,if they were buying the buy level would be 1409ish no 1404

[11:25:37] 1404 and 1414 current MM buy sell levels,es

[11:23:11] GDX almost ready for reentry, nugt,,waiting for pb now,,has followed roadmap well

[10:57:25] TLT shorts could work here, or TMV, scalps and swing both,,,im not adding anything since i already have an exist position

[10:00:36] 64% es bnc signal, not high enough for action imo, just fyi,,,watching if it goes up or down, es 1403,,intraday signal, irrellevant to swing


[09:34:12] idealy gdx would bounce to 4675ish, stall and pb,,,and pb may give entry

[09:32:35] GDX NUGT continue to act well during the setup formation stage,,,still no re-entry position but forming nicely these past many days,
[09:33:03] we are getting the expected bounce on the gdx a bit here,,,some choppiness with a final move lower would put me in long

[09:27:50] bernake will speak, so limit orders set at extremes for possible fills if we get whipsaw, exits only,,will adjust later


[09:19:02] lowered trgt on TLT shorts for now, (higher gain if hit), TLT 123.80 new TLT trgt for now, to close half of shorts there and keep half, viz 3x TMV

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

thurs thoughts

[15:36:19] MM lowered buy level back down, same sell level,,could drop or drift up

[15:32:26] hit the 1402 trgt

[15:27:49] MM have raised the buy level,,, ES can get the 1405 if they keep it here

[15:24:26] conversely MM not buying, with level near low of day atm

[15:23:01] 141.10ish spy level

[15:22:04] MM stopped selling,,,testing mkt now,,,with sell levels above high of day again, at 1400 es

[15:14:21] theres a poss bear HS on ES 60min chart
[15:14:34] but the daily chart, one could conversely see a bull flag
[15:14:42] or coil

[15:03:45] mild MM selling rite here, nothing extreme,,,but selling a lil into this lil pop

 [14:52:40] intraday Market Maker sell level has moved above todays high of day in SPY, fwiw
[14:52:58] may lower it,,,until lower upside bias.....tho the bid is far away so they r not buying here


[14:50:21] 1404.50 is trgt if it hits 78%,,, 1402 is the 74% trgt

[14:28:16] institutional #s for TLT interest are 123 and 129

[14:25:18]  1402 es intraday resist,,using breakdown level (prior supp) as welll as prior high,,gives same #

[14:14:14] still waiting on GDX NUGT reentry

[13:34:11] 70% long bias rang, ES 1398
[10:34:52] exited CHRW short,,will re-eval entry later, small profit breakeven,,,

[09:44:22] GDX NUGT charts still looking good, following expectations,,tho i have no position in them yet,,,still waiting to re-enter,,,,would like to see a move up and then down on the 15min chart at least, and pref on the 60min chart,,,,one more daily low is possible imo,,,such lower low would not invalidate bullish outlook on gdex nugt for swing

GDX is volatile and has a "habit" of making large candle moves on the 60min chart,,tho we have not seen that recently i'm being cautious of poss large candle down,,,such large red candle could be a buying opp

[09:37:41] theres the ES move under 1405 but not under 1399 mentioned yest,,,a poss buy signal will set up if 1399 holds and es gets back over 1405


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

wedn thoughts

[15:53:17] TMV did not hit its target today, will hold it
[15:54:15] cancelled sell at 53.70 and raised target to 54.20, for now,,,,when its this close to trgt and misses, it usually overshoots the target, hence the higher # for now,,on half of position, to hold other half for higher

[15:42:37] this 72% signal is less reliable today due to decreased participation
[15:31:07] at 1410 es, but needs 74-80-% to move
[15:30:11] 72% rang on es long bias into close, es 1410 last

[13:23:48] same trgt on upro, 87.00 and 87.70,,,still have order set for 87.70 for now

[12:30:48] intraday 1405 es held on the first test there,,,normally a piercing of that type of minor support lower would happen,,imo failure to pierce is bullish
[12:31:03] 10:57am-ish test
[12:31:46] watching to see if it tries to test it again, lower

[11:23:13] new candles on todays chart 1030am--1115am put TMV trgt bull flag at 53.65, which just so happens to be v close to yesterdays 4pm and this morn 9am trgt of 5370

[11:04:00] GDX and NUGT are finally moving down a bit after waiting a few days,,,still not valid for re=entry long imo
[11:04:41] but a move still lower, followed by some basing sidesways candles on the 60min charts could set up a swing long for re-entry,,,not ready yet but developing


[10:52:15] testing 1405 ES support now,,,break lower and move higher trade still valid if it presents, from 930-10amish posting,no setup yet

[10:01:38] a move under 1405 ES that does not go lower than 1399
, followed by a move back above 1405 with a 3min candle close would give a buy signal intraday

[09:54:12] TMV up 1% from yest close, while upro up just 0.3%,,,,mentioned yest that the treasuries tmv tlt would likely provide bigger range

[09:51:08] TLT 124.70 trgt,last 125.39

[09:45:28] TLT "should" make a lower low under 125.35 today,,,if it bounces poss scalp trade intraday, i remain swing short with same trgts on first half

3x bear treas etf is TMV

[09:37:13] tlt testing 15min and 60min supports rite now

[09:36:01] if TLT does not make much of an effort to fill the todays gap in the next 15-30 min,,,gap theory suggests a lowere intraday low would be made,,,

[09:09:53] i will take gains on half of TMV if it gets 53.70, and UPRO same # as yest 87.7,,,may adjust later

also considering longs in silver or gold while waiting for re-entry into gdx,,,watching for poss setup

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tues thoughts

[15:30:46] TMV 5280 i'll take off half if it gets there, to reduce risk and take small gain, since i added to it
[15:30:51] and keep half


[15:23:49] TLT has successfully broken the 125.80 support # from 2 hrs ago, good for shorts swing imo
[15:23:55] watching where it closes


[14:55:37] TLT at 125.90,,,close to the 125.80 pivot from hour ago,,,a close under here would be good for tlt shorts imo

[14:29:41] theres test of resist 1 sugg by 72% es,,can still go higher imo, 1410.75
[14:15:19] 1411 es test high of day likely, tho only 3 pts
[14:06:13] 72% long bias rang on ES at 1408
[14:06:29] intraday signal scalp ,,,not swing indic

[14:04:45] watching if TLT closes under 125.80

[14:02:24] added TMV,, when TLT hit 126.24

[13:44:46] MIND (mitcham indus),,,still have 1970 trgt tho it may take awhile,,about 21% higher from here

[13:26:19] if CHRW can make one more lower low today, i might trade it actively, close the trade for 2%ish gain and re-short,,,, swing trgt is 5-10% gains later,,one more lower low may temporarily tire the sellers and allow a bounce in it, to reshort higher

[12:23:45] raising upro trgt to 87.70 from 87.00 for now, may adjust later, from 84.90 entry,,,last 85.17

[10:30:24] same trgts for upro, will sell at 87.00 for now, may adjust later

[09:38:31] CHRW broke supp level posted yest, on way to trgt 1 swing,,,still holding the short,,, still have UPRO at marginal gain,,holding that too,, TMV 3x red 1.5% but holding ,,,not adding to tmv yet,,,still see higher tmv lower tlt swings

Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday thoughts

[13:14:58] es may move up here now
[13:15:07] 1413 last



[12:56:33] no change in intraday outlook,,,everything same as b4


[12:30:29] CHRW now testing the support level,,,still looks breakable lower for swings,holding the swing
[12:30:37] short on chrw


[12:05:48] MM lowered the sell levels finally



[11:58:31] but their BUY level also remains far below, so could drop as well....

[11:57:27] MM reports suggest interest in selling up at the 1428 ES level, above the previous high 1424.85,,,,,until that changes susceptilble to getting up to 1424


[11:55:41] not saying it happens,,,but if MM do not start lowering the sell level,,,ES could see 1424 today,,,tho i'm going with the more conserv trgts,,,an algo could hit buy or sell suddenly in either direction as we all know,,,just going with what data telling us for now

[11:52:44] spx 3min chart,,,small bull flag intraday

[11:51:21] CHRW down -0.7% today vs es up/flat,,,chrw not participating and is still valid to short at this price swing imo

[11:48:41] they STILL have NOT raised the buy level,,,they may be distributing here BEARISHLY but that can go on for a 4-20 spx trading hours
[11:47:35] MM have raised the sell levels again,,,price has not moved up in response but it likely will unless they lower it

[11:38:07] MM playing games now, could move ES 3 points either direction quickly when move starts when like this,,,,1413 last


[11:35:34] scalps on UPRO from today could do similar,,,large port,,,take 1%ish here gain, or hold as per above strat

 

[11:34:04] for now i intend to hold the UPRO 3x spx long thru a roundtrip lower and then sell after bnc if it goes lower,,,may take some time,,,,alt action is to take 2% swing profits here instead from entry other day
[11:34:20] intraday first trip lower should be bought,imo
[11:34:43] should = probably will hold,,,not suggesting adding longs on pb,,





[11:31:45] upro may stall at 8650 not 8700,,all approx trgt for now,,,holding for 8700 trgt for now,may change later
[11:31:56] 8580 last
[11:28:40] MM now selling a bit here, nothing harsh but will stall this until they rasie the sell levels again,,lower than b4 by about 2 pts

[11:26:36] spx not being rejected here is suggesting higher,,,tho allowed time for rejection has not elapsed yet

 

[11:22:05] CHRW is slightly red today despite spy lil green,,,staying short on chrw
[11:19:49] this reaction at 1416 spx is v impt imo,,,its close to test now from 11:12 post
[11:20:05] needs a harsh rejection for bears,,,sideways would suggest higher

[11:16:07] 74% signal did its job on getting first trgt,,,need 78% to get second 1416 trgt,,,still at 74% now

[11:14:19] ES hit first trgt 1412 and stalled, stall is ok here, higher trgts still valid atm imo

[11:11:32] a higher intraday high today is suggested, 2 points over high on spx[11:12:21] reaction at 1416 spx impt,,,if it hits there, with a marginal move over the 1414


[11:10:14] MM have not yet started raising the buy level, only sell level,,,if they did raise buy level then a faster higher move would come,,,right now its just this drift mode


[11:08:14] MM raised sell level again
[11:08:44] suggests trgt 2 at 1416 doable today unless stats change

[11:05:31] mini break,,,seconds after typing :)
[11:04:51] may break 1410 es within 12 min
[11:00:59] no changes in their buy levels, only a higher sell level,,but still tight range until they raise the sell levels more,,,if they dont then may test the buy levels,,bias still up on it overall

[11:00:09] minor reduction in MM selling,,,still havent let off "holding it down" but may let it drift here
[10:53:06] 74% rang....often suggests first trgt will be tested which is 1412
[10:48:29] Market Maker reports are suggesting that they are holding the price down right now, but not shorting this,,,,if they decide to let off the selling a bit, then spx would pop higher, es 1409 last
[10:49:09] their buying point is 1403ish es
[10:49:39] MM analysis uses both individ stocks, es dow spx indices
[10:23:34]   that signal is scalp intraday ,,,or for swings that want to layer in and hold,,,its not a swing signal but can be used for entry points
[10:24:20] small port strat generally does not "scalp" anything not willing to hold as swing, thus not a true scalp,,but won't hesistate to take a same day profit if it moves,,,hope it makes sense

[10:21:41] 1412, 1416,1422 ES resis above
[10:18:57] imo long could work here ,, but not taking the long in the "small port" simulator since it requires too much management and ties up cash there, does not fit the small port sim trading style, only large port

[10:18:16] 72% came early
[10:18:23] 1409 es last
[10:10:59] 1412 es would raise from 70 to 74%, i think probably, if happens in next 18 minutes
[10:07:02] conversely if ES SPX instead DOES decide to move lower in next 4-8 hours without bounce, it may be sign of premature weakness, and might enter shorts there, or on bounce after such
[10:05:53] 60min chart analysis remains same as friday, still shows up sideways bias on spx for 4-8 more hours,,,may add shorts after that time elapses, or if it gets stretched,,,,spx has not been stretched far enought for me yet to short it swing
[10:03:10] intraday, ES SPX 70% long bias just rang,,,signal has been working well recently, es 1408
[10:03:17] needs 74--85% to move
[10:01:54] CHRW swing trgt is about 10% gain, with stalls along the way of course
[10:00:17] over 56.50 CHRW remains bullish, i'm holding this swing short in anticpation of a break of that support, eventually, may not come today but its close to testing the supp now
[10:00:46] but 2-3 month daily chart on chrw, is bearish
[09:35:08] CHRW shorts also still valid for new entries here ,,,tho i will not add to existing short position
[09:34:03] TMV 3x longs still valid here, bearish treas TLT etf,swings
[09:31:34] will take gains on UPRO if it hits 87.00, last 85.34
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday thoughts

[15:46:13] ES just hit todays 1412 trgt posted earlier
[15:30:03] took 1% gain on DIS trade, will re=eval reentry to DIS on Monday
[15:31:34] mostly to take reduce risk, since have several open positions,,lock a little gain while its here and hold other positions for higher

[15:21:37] Market Maker activity in DIS has changed now, as it often does at 3pm,,,suggesting higher, so may hold DIS,,,or sell half keep half,,,bought 2 layers so shares available to only sell part of it
[15:18:04] imo,,,waiting until Monday b4 any new short entries makes sense,,,seems early to short this, 60min chart suggesting 4-8 hrs more up sideways bias 

[15:15:49] 1408.50 ES hit,watching if follows thru higher or not

[15:13:42] ES  may bounce here if it gets 1408.50
[15:04:06] if DIS moves up by 4pm today, i may take the quick profit and look to buy it back later, unsure atm
[15:04:20] still see higher DIS but 60min chart may want another visit lower first

[14:18:45] ES may bounce again here
[14:18:53] 1408.50
[13:55:08] DIS is at scalp trgt 1% gain here from entry this morn,,,swing trgts are
[13:48:54] es is at the 3min chart measured trgt now,,,looks like it can move beyond it higher
[13:45:04] 13:32 signal may be exhibiting follow thru here on es,
[13:41:58] TLT looks ready to make a lower low
[13:33:55] signal valid while es over 1406,intraday signal only

[13:25:48] long MIND swing, small position it has a volatile range,, 1750-18ish trgt, 
[13:31:30] might pop hjigher here, es,,,signal rang
[13:31:37] 1408 es last, no new positions, just info

[13:25:48] long MIND swing, small position it has a volatile range,, 1750-18ish trgt, 

[12:33:53] The 3min chart has a measured trgt of 1411, which is close to the 12:05 pm trg of 1412, on brk of 1407 higher

[12:12:06] TLT shorts or TMV 3x long still valid at this price for swing imo,,,even if it decides to go higher
[12:11:04] TLT 60min chart suggests down bias next 4-8 trading hours

[12:05:11] if the 1407 were to break higher, then 1412 would be next trgt, es

[12:01:29] imo,,,the move up was strong enough, fast enough, and early enough in day, for a higher hi possibly
[11:53:46] TLT hit 11:40 AM bnc trgt 125.09 one cent under resist trgt and pulled back,,,watching if .09 holds or it trys to break it again higher,,,still see lower TLT

[11:43:24] if spx can get to 1414, then likely will break it higher later, and would present a poss long if it pulls back after hittint 1414
[11:40:55] TLT bnc to 125.10 then lower would fit pattern, i remain short TLT via tmv

[11:39:27] a move to 4990 then down to 4960 would fit pattern, after stall,,then the higher swing trgts,,DIS
[11:32:53] DIS swing trgts,,,5050 to start, then 52,,,approx trgts obviously round #s

[11:30:54] TMV can move another 6% higher,not today

[11:19:02] order for 8570upro sell is cancelled, will re-eval later for poss higher



[11:17:15] ES just hit 1407 trgt from 9am,,,if it stays over 1404 here it may make higher than 1407
[11:17:27] looks breakable higher,


[10:52:26] scalpers that like tite stops could do es here, stop 1400.50

[10:49:35] 8570ish UPRO trgt,,,will sell half or all there

[10:44:12] preparing to add more TMV 3x soon

*1398
[10:42:17] IF es sees 1399 it will likely hold, good for 18 minutes

[10:39:31] just hit the 1402 trgt from 9am
[10:39:37] 1404 1407 mext

[10:34:25] 74% ES long scalp just rang, 1399 es
[10:34:47] doesnt usually jump from 68 to 74 like that,,

[10:32:45] TLT range today is small too,,but TLT looks like it may want to move down and expand the range,,,will see
[10:14:25] DIS testing the 49.13 interim resist, watching reaction for brk higher

[10:12:14] ES day trgts same as yest 2pm trgts,, 1407 es main one, 1402/1404 stall first


[10:01:18] im using 4913 resist on dis instead of 4916, intaday


[09:56:54] have 2 layers on DIS to start instead of one, if it moves up will scalp 1 layer and hold other one

[09:55:40] long DIS disney swing,,,daily chart on DIS much diff than spy spx dow jones


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1

For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thurs thoughts

[15:54:52] if 1390 breaks SPX, then 1375 trgt (approx #s), swing
[15:55:12] over 1390 is tricky short, unless spx is at extremes stretched tired up

[15:39:20] spx tested near 1400 today,,,still see same as yest risk tho: if 1393 not tested,,may trap shorts until the next short opp comes
[15:34:03] timing analysis suggests poss short spx after 1--3 days from now,swing
[15:32:32] gap analysis using method i use, currently favors up for ES
[15:32:48] could change in 30 min

[15:21:11] its not likely it would move that much, but if TLT closes under 124.50 today, would be bearish for the TLT and good for TMV 3x

[15:12:12] trgts are simply prior intraday highs, no complex calc,,the 1407 reprsents a prior high as well as breakdown point (prior supp turned into resist when it broke lower), so 1407 the more impt trgt, intraday only

[15:10:18] ES nearly tagged 1400 but failed a 3min close under it, so far, and has bounced to 1402, with the 1404 1407 trgts still viable

[14:52:33] the es hit the 1402 micro trgt, if 1400 holds i'd expect it to go for 1404 1407,,,a break of 1400 with a 3min candle close under it could send it lower
[14:52:44] only intraday for above,not swing


[14:16:16] bought TMV 3x, entry 1...(re entry in this from exit few days ago)

[13:57:31] 1407 resist es

[13:54:51] 1402--1404 then stall then 1400 then higher, could be a micro pattern forming,,intraday only, not relev for swing

[13:52:33] 70% intraday long bias just rang, es 1399.75,,may bounce

[13:16:35] if CHRW gets to 55.50 area, might take profit on the short and look to reenter, or just close half of position,,,still see the lower trgtrs 5-10% lower swing later

[12:29:41] one reason of many on long upro spx: [12:28:57] IF the spx does not test 1396 area, its going to trap some shorts,,,,the charts are still same for last 3 weeks imo, not much change in analysis or roadmap
[12:29:54] later, i'll be looking to reverse short (finally)


[12:27:09] i want TMV but will wait until 3pm or 4pm today to buy it, will re-eval then

[12:22:24] added upro, layer 2

[12:02:31] may possibly add TLT shorts via TMV 3x long today, swing

[11:44:38] CHRW still shortable here, swing, tho its testing support and may or may not bounce first, 5675 last,,,,i remain short chrw but am not adding to the position
[11:45:04] upro not adding, holding it for now at 0.7%ish red atm
[11:45:42] gdx continues moving higher, exited that one a bit early due to travel sched,,still looking for re-entry long gdx nugt


Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".