Monday thoughts

[13:14:58] es may move up here now
[13:15:07] 1413 last



[12:56:33] no change in intraday outlook,,,everything same as b4


[12:30:29] CHRW now testing the support level,,,still looks breakable lower for swings,holding the swing
[12:30:37] short on chrw


[12:05:48] MM lowered the sell levels finally



[11:58:31] but their BUY level also remains far below, so could drop as well....

[11:57:27] MM reports suggest interest in selling up at the 1428 ES level, above the previous high 1424.85,,,,,until that changes susceptilble to getting up to 1424


[11:55:41] not saying it happens,,,but if MM do not start lowering the sell level,,,ES could see 1424 today,,,tho i'm going with the more conserv trgts,,,an algo could hit buy or sell suddenly in either direction as we all know,,,just going with what data telling us for now

[11:52:44] spx 3min chart,,,small bull flag intraday

[11:51:21] CHRW down -0.7% today vs es up/flat,,,chrw not participating and is still valid to short at this price swing imo

[11:48:41] they STILL have NOT raised the buy level,,,they may be distributing here BEARISHLY but that can go on for a 4-20 spx trading hours
[11:47:35] MM have raised the sell levels again,,,price has not moved up in response but it likely will unless they lower it

[11:38:07] MM playing games now, could move ES 3 points either direction quickly when move starts when like this,,,,1413 last


[11:35:34] scalps on UPRO from today could do similar,,,large port,,,take 1%ish here gain, or hold as per above strat

 

[11:34:04] for now i intend to hold the UPRO 3x spx long thru a roundtrip lower and then sell after bnc if it goes lower,,,may take some time,,,,alt action is to take 2% swing profits here instead from entry other day
[11:34:20] intraday first trip lower should be bought,imo
[11:34:43] should = probably will hold,,,not suggesting adding longs on pb,,





[11:31:45] upro may stall at 8650 not 8700,,all approx trgt for now,,,holding for 8700 trgt for now,may change later
[11:31:56] 8580 last
[11:28:40] MM now selling a bit here, nothing harsh but will stall this until they rasie the sell levels again,,lower than b4 by about 2 pts

[11:26:36] spx not being rejected here is suggesting higher,,,tho allowed time for rejection has not elapsed yet

 

[11:22:05] CHRW is slightly red today despite spy lil green,,,staying short on chrw
[11:19:49] this reaction at 1416 spx is v impt imo,,,its close to test now from 11:12 post
[11:20:05] needs a harsh rejection for bears,,,sideways would suggest higher

[11:16:07] 74% signal did its job on getting first trgt,,,need 78% to get second 1416 trgt,,,still at 74% now

[11:14:19] ES hit first trgt 1412 and stalled, stall is ok here, higher trgts still valid atm imo

[11:11:32] a higher intraday high today is suggested, 2 points over high on spx[11:12:21] reaction at 1416 spx impt,,,if it hits there, with a marginal move over the 1414


[11:10:14] MM have not yet started raising the buy level, only sell level,,,if they did raise buy level then a faster higher move would come,,,right now its just this drift mode


[11:08:14] MM raised sell level again
[11:08:44] suggests trgt 2 at 1416 doable today unless stats change

[11:05:31] mini break,,,seconds after typing :)
[11:04:51] may break 1410 es within 12 min
[11:00:59] no changes in their buy levels, only a higher sell level,,but still tight range until they raise the sell levels more,,,if they dont then may test the buy levels,,bias still up on it overall

[11:00:09] minor reduction in MM selling,,,still havent let off "holding it down" but may let it drift here
[10:53:06] 74% rang....often suggests first trgt will be tested which is 1412
[10:48:29] Market Maker reports are suggesting that they are holding the price down right now, but not shorting this,,,,if they decide to let off the selling a bit, then spx would pop higher, es 1409 last
[10:49:09] their buying point is 1403ish es
[10:49:39] MM analysis uses both individ stocks, es dow spx indices
[10:23:34]   that signal is scalp intraday ,,,or for swings that want to layer in and hold,,,its not a swing signal but can be used for entry points
[10:24:20] small port strat generally does not "scalp" anything not willing to hold as swing, thus not a true scalp,,but won't hesistate to take a same day profit if it moves,,,hope it makes sense

[10:21:41] 1412, 1416,1422 ES resis above
[10:18:57] imo long could work here ,, but not taking the long in the "small port" simulator since it requires too much management and ties up cash there, does not fit the small port sim trading style, only large port

[10:18:16] 72% came early
[10:18:23] 1409 es last
[10:10:59] 1412 es would raise from 70 to 74%, i think probably, if happens in next 18 minutes
[10:07:02] conversely if ES SPX instead DOES decide to move lower in next 4-8 hours without bounce, it may be sign of premature weakness, and might enter shorts there, or on bounce after such
[10:05:53] 60min chart analysis remains same as friday, still shows up sideways bias on spx for 4-8 more hours,,,may add shorts after that time elapses, or if it gets stretched,,,,spx has not been stretched far enought for me yet to short it swing
[10:03:10] intraday, ES SPX 70% long bias just rang,,,signal has been working well recently, es 1408
[10:03:17] needs 74--85% to move
[10:01:54] CHRW swing trgt is about 10% gain, with stalls along the way of course
[10:00:17] over 56.50 CHRW remains bullish, i'm holding this swing short in anticpation of a break of that support, eventually, may not come today but its close to testing the supp now
[10:00:46] but 2-3 month daily chart on chrw, is bearish
[09:35:08] CHRW shorts also still valid for new entries here ,,,tho i will not add to existing short position
[09:34:03] TMV 3x longs still valid here, bearish treas TLT etf,swings
[09:31:34] will take gains on UPRO if it hits 87.00, last 85.34
Trades can be viewed at the links below.


http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1/portfolio/Holdings
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-public-1


For details on the portfolio see this posting:
http://christopherstockguy.blogspot.com/2012/04/link-to-trading-portfolio-of-posted.html

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".