Monday, April 8, 2013

mon thoughts

354
: going to exit half the silver, keep half

346
after yest candle, it should have gone to 1525 lower at least, instead of this push up...to "let in" some people....this action suggests instead distribution bearishly, and the "good price" is now under 1525 and likely to fall harder now

345
not usually this bearish on spx,,,but this is stretched
not usually this bearish on spx,,,but this is stretched

344
LOTS of resist now in ES next 10 points above here...it may push up but its a gift short opp imo
even if it makes another 10 points

332
MM still buying silver 2 cents from curr price...so trying to hold this here...still may exit half of it

327
silver is now testing 15min resist...MM have enough bid under it to break it higher...if they hold the bids...will watch MM to see what they do and may exit half of silver depending

233
see that huge bull diverg in GDX daily chart?
feb 20, march 5, and april 3 lows on price: rsi or your preferred indic

214
UVXY may want to go as low as 6.99 Invesment Bank buy level...watching for now

213
ES has just finally hit the 1553 trgt higher from this morn. but letting it go higher if it can, before any uvxy

117
VSE port might require taking profits in 25-50%  of USLV in order to buy the uvxy,,

116
if ES can get up to 1553,,,UVXY should be a nice entry, gift trade opp in uvxy, will prob add uvxy if so

1224
ES just hit the 1545.50 "reaction" target from prior post...watching now if this breaks more lower to trigger the 82% reactino, or pops higher

1223
gdx should test higher 3524 and stall poss

1222
no guarantees, it would need to continue and persist in that behavior, but thats what is often seen at "bottoms" as the bigger banks decide they want to start accum and price is now "low enough"

1220
GDX has some MM accumulating long, but other MM selling...they are going over each other LOL...bullish for swings, but this usually prevents a fast move up, UNTIL UNLESS the trading MM stop trading and raise their asks. their is support with bids close to price, but trading MM holding it down with their ask, atm...while other MM and Inv Banks have higher sell levles in gdx nugt

GDX what's interesting is, at least right now, the Inv Banks are paying more than the MM...thats unusual, usually the Inv Banks patiently wait lower, under the MM levels

1212
3min warning..es

1208
if es hits 1545.50...may see the 72% reaction kick in for lower

1201
SLV 3min moving up on chart...dollar down,,,nugt may follow up

1156
750 uvxy trgt 1, then 762, 773,,,,where theres signif resist at 773 on first try

1154
72% es short just rang. 1547 es.  uvxy 738

1143
added nugt here. per plan from this morn.

1030
GDX selling of here but its acting as expected, and selloff may present a buying opp...its not harsh, not adding yet but may add more later nugt gdx...same plan as 9am just update

1018
trade the plan strat:  earlier today at 35.01...GDX was in no mans land and could have gone either up or down and still be valid chart pattern. waited to see what it did...it went up...so will now look to buy dips on gdx if they present, unless it goes for Inv Level trgt first, in such case will take gain on existing nugt and look to reload later

silver positions should move similarly

1015
may take another 4-8 candles on the 15min chart...but looks like 60m silver will break to upside

1014
Look at Silver SLV USLV chart: VERY encouraging for silver longs, if one looks at the 60 min chart and 15min chart

1012
lol GDX made it to initial resist area 3514/3527 while typing...watching reactinos here now

1008
Inv Bank sell level GDX at 3580/3600 sov v good chance of more of a stall at 3580/3600 trgt, see higher after that but almost always theres a stall at Inv Bank levels vs MM levels, as we have repeatedly seen on both the buy and sell levels when hit

1008
GDX nugt trades:  gdx likely going to hit 3514 and stall in that area, then a pb may be buyable for swing. Initial trgt on gdx would be 3580 but imo a stall in the 3514/3527 area likely first

1005
for those that like to trade both ways, an ES long opp will likely present, tho NOT YET imo....but i will not take it, since right now i'm just trading in one direction shortside... i prefer only trading in the direction of my swings

957
Glad to see ES bouncing a little here....if it can get a lil higher it will give opp to add shorts or add uvxy

954
obviously MAIN support on ES is 1530,,,if THAT breaks and hold, ES likely headed lower to 1525
then 1502

952
4 min later...:) theres the mini break...running stops on es...watching to see if sustains or bounce

948
*** 1 point bounce and already stall...ES looks dangerous here...may break lower.....

948
higher 7.72 is Invesment Bank sell level 1 on UVXY

948
uvxy 758,,,it hit close enough to 760 trgt if scalping it

947
heres expected test of es 1545 posted b4...watching reaction now...failure to hold this would be bad for ES...it should bounce but this time of day could also easily break lower

bias for swings remains short,regardless, imo

944
760 uvxy trgt resist last 747

939
es 1547 last...likely to try lower for 1545 test prior low
which would put uvxy higher...

935
looks like NUGT is going to give a buying opp this morning...waiting on it...not in rush for nugt or uvxy since i already have both, this would be to add more...if one did NOT have any, good prices imo here

930
if ES hits 1551/1552 by 945am i'll prob short ...using uvxy ...also maybe nugt and gdx might present buy long opps close to the open

Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Friday, April 5, 2013

Friday thoughts

403
also. the SPY candle which is green, the Japanese candlesticks have a bearish pattern for that even tho its green

402
u cant see it on spy, but es daily candle is a hammer, at the top, which is bearish despite the surge up (they r bullish when at the bottom of a trend)... to confirm, one needs a daily close below the hammer. BUT these hammers also have a habit of at least retesting about half-way down (lower for ES SPY in this case)

352
747 uvxy trgt to buy if able, last 763,today, else will pay whatever price in next 6 min

341
may add 2000 more uvxy to hold overnight..not yett...letting ES surge ahead...believe lower ES not done yet for swings...this may be a gift for shorts to reload for quick swings

336
MM 4040 and 4030 buy areas tza

335
MM just cleared tza to allow retest of 4065..last 4053. will watch reaction
even tho tza going lower as i type...

308
MACD strategy: notice the 15min chart MACD on SPY ticked down a few candles ago. often if one can short at the same price as the OPEN of that tick down (not the close)....the trade will do well. works in 60min timeframe also

often you won't get the chance to enter, since it goes down without bounce to the prior open price, but in this case spy gave the opp, so took the trade via UVXY

306
 bought uvxy 2000 shares in vse acct

248
MM sell level on SLV are at 2645 and 2574, and there is some cluster MM buy levels near .35. this suggests the second MM level may be hit toay,,,2574...tho it's bellow the Invesment Bank Sell level posted earlier today

244
actually for shorts in swings spx iwm: might be better for shorts, more bearish if spy closes around here and does NOT go too low today. this gives opp for actual lower in coming days imo

also, if spy closes here, the "4pm swing trading system" will NOT likely give an exit short/reverse long position...needs a lower close to give the signal

1018
BTW... the 4pm swing system might fire a "close shorts spx and go long spy upro" today, unsure...it is sometimes early on the entry...yest i mentioned that the 4pm signal was "close" to giving an exit short and go long,

but also posted that OFTEN THE BIGGEST MOVES COME RIGHT BEFORE THE SIGNAL CHANGE..we are seeing that big move behavior today

1017
IF 1530 ES breaks, may see fireworks....may not break today since already down 20 points...but possible...

1008
sell orders for now. may change them later:
USLV 18.70
NUGT 25.20
AKS    3.40
VXX   24.70

1002
next trgt on GDX NUGT is the GDX low not high on march 14....of 36.57...i'd take 10 cents under it 36.47

plan this morn is to sell half my nugt, and keep half for that trgt

that would put NUGT near 25.40 but not exact # in nugt like gdx has since nugt decays


954
note that GDX is just above yesterday's Investment Bank sell level. once again, the level is hit the next day. just keep mentioning this as evidence that it happens a lot.

932
: closed positions this morning put me in Second place in Wall Street Journal stock contest of 400 traders, not bragging arrogant just happy....like playing a tennis match...

 some ppl...competition can help keep them focused...just throwing it out as idea for other ppl to use

other ppl...contest competitionss distract

I'm not taking any new positions this morning...will be leaving in 30 minutes



Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, April 4, 2013

thurs thoughts

329
very sedated quiet here in mkt for 329 pm !

321
uvxy trying to wake up here....

239
72% short rang on es, long rang uvxy here 774

234
notice on xiv that the 3min candles are getting smaller...aka tired XIV>....may pullback XIV and higher UVXY

227
when the system triggers long swing,,,i will likely cease and desist from uvxy trading...or do it only occassionally and smaller lots

225
4pm SWing Sys update: it is close to giving a buy long swing signal on SPX UPRO...BUT the signal did not come yet and it will require a close lower than current price to trigger...may not trigger today, wont trigger unless lower,,,may need to wait another day... HOWEVER the large moves often come right before the signal so SPX IWM could easily drop from here, before the exit swing short triggers...in this case the exit short will trigger an immediate reversal to long

hope that makes sense
82% win rate on the 4pm system from 2000 and 2007
posted performance record before on it
NO TRIGGERS YET....fyi only

2212
common intial breakout phenomena to do that

212
its only marginal...but if u look at 60m chart of vxx uvxy...higher highs being made on it...mini break of inv HS

208
UVXY has surge potential next 2 hours

153
ES stalled nicely right at the 1553 trgt :)

152
OIL...still needs some time,,,MM have not raised bids or ask...

150
LOL ...Inv Bank has now raised level to 3610 GDX....should make the 3550 prior level

147
********* 3547 new Inv Bank sell level on GDX..........they have lowered it.........i have thus put in order to sell at 3547 half of the nugt shares

144
heres that test of 1552/53 from 1:20pm post...sellers waiting here but prudent to wait since it got here fast...but its in the short area and bounced as expected...not trading it


131
there it is........MM have just raised the level on gdx to 35.22...near the expected .20...USUALLY it will pb a lil first as their prior level of 3502---3512 consolodates

128
there "should be" one more opp for active to buy gdx...should stall areound .12

126
uh oh...look at UUP DX....
good for silver gdx tho

124
if they can, they will try to buy more gdx 3480

124
MM havent moved yet...still selling the 3500-3508 GDX...over that can soar nice to next 2 trtg

120
ES 1552   1553 sellers are waiting...if it can get there could make another short entry, tho the first entry was obviously better posted b4

120
BUT the MM just raised the BIDS on GDX...buying 3480 selling 3502...poss to accum for higher

116
ES breaking as expected here...NUGT reacting nice

114
MM have dropped their ask price in oil, so i am planning to exit this oil long earlier than prev posted trgts as it will now need more active trading and more attention...dont like to fight the MM

110
ES looks like it will break this support here now...1548

1206
u cannot see it on USO chart but oil futures chart also has a bull diverg forming now on its 15min chart

1204
3min oil charts now have tripel bull diverg on them, for a scalp long opp,, uco or CL futures

1104
AKS...another one of those "price is too far away from 5 MA daily and expect bounce, even in a downtrend" strategy

usually works well for quick swing

1101
AKS is up a lot today, up almost 5%,,,watching that positin for poss exit soon

1053
UCO: order to sell in at 29.80 for now, may sell lower but order placed in case of surge,,,oil can move fast...this order is at scalp trgt 3 and swing trgt 1 ...note that it is ABOVE todays high AND also above the gap fill ...i've place it just under the prior high above the gap

1045
nice immediate bounce in oil...uco

1034
OIL is setting up a long entry...no entry yet...USO  UCO  CL

1025
1557 es shorts...would tighten stops on ES or uvxy here...last 1553 and uvxy moved nicely on it

1016
Market Makers raised their ask on nugt to 20.93, why im trying 2080 well below it

1016
1016
20.80 order to sell half nugt, keep half

1012
nugt trgt 2070--2083...scalps...swing trgt higher...for those actively trading it fast

1011
2070 next scalp trgt nugt


1003
bought back the nugt 2011 that sold at 2040

956
 quick scalpers: NUGT from buy 20 min ago now at trgt 1
quick 3.5% gain in 15min LOL
3423 was gdx trgt, took it off 3421 close enuf

951
gdx 3423 is first trgt from nugt entry at gdx 3375

949
1556/1557 is overnite hi on es...poss short there for quick scalpers, but i'll prob not trade it

947
possibly  buying back uvxy again at my buy area 7.40, last 7.60

937
bought more nugt. added at gdx 3375


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Wednesday, April 3, 2013

wedn thoughts

352
looks like dollar wants a little lower. should be good for nugt and uslv in coming hours days

343
hit 786
803 UVXY prob max trgt today

332
uvxy: 786 MM level may stall it...i'll take that tho

322
trying for 1790ish to exit some uvxy if able

245
3min es...first sign of tired after expected 2nd bounce,,,now sideways, then shortable

242
here comes that expected "second bounce on es" before stoch to 20, on 3min charts...getting shortable soon...

this is why imo u cant use stoch and just short the 80 stoch and buy the 20...common misconcep imo

228
the es 3min chart...it should bounce a little more here one more time,,,before the stoch gets to 20 again...i dont trade stoch just saying

208
Silver: 60min chart will have a bullish reversal pattern IF the next candle is also green and at least halfway above the last red candle. has a green candel now. needs 2


2075 next MM level on VXX today...related to uvxy...fwiw
AFTER the 2041 level on vxx breaks
that would be 8.05 ish UVXY...the March 27 high or near it....is the Inv Bank selll level on VXX UVXY today

149
want to give uvxy a chance to make a surge move before 4pm....may see some action in buying options and higher uvxy ...for protection as result of decline

146
Panic buy level today on IWM: 90... i will cover a lot if it gets there, usually does NOT make it the same day,,watching

144
*** IWM...just hit yesterdays posted trgt...Inv Bank level... 9100...watching reaction now...may bounce tho it looks bad atm

new Inv Bank level is 90 tho

141
MM lined up at 760 and 770 uvxy...will prob stall there

134
uvxy trying but needs over 757 if it want to start filling gap
may pop here another 10 cents tho

1233
 obviously i exited silver shorts when i bought uslv. forgot to post the exit on silver short LOL
: i dont usually reverse instantly like that,,,but this time it was tempting.
like oil...i exited shorts there too..but did NOT go long...rather looking to reshort oil bounce

1216
yes. its very very common for "todays" Inv Bank levels to be hit the next day, or 2 days later. this is what we are seeing today in IWM....hitting near yest level

1214
Inv bank level remains at 90 not 91...but takes longer to get there, often with bounces in between

1213
IWM is approaching the 91 trgt posted yest...still watching tza for poss early exit, since have other positions. if didnt have other positions, would consider holding tza longer. no exit yet. but tza postion up 3%ish atm

1039
oil now near both 60min and daily prior lows support...may stall and bounce a little but these lows been tested b4 so looking for a break of them, and possibly here on first try today

1034
...for scalp i'm waiting on nugt for now for 2 reasons: silver chart, and MM ask level sell is near 3585 gdx...would like to see them raise the ask

1002
marginally, small, but theres the expected break of yest low on IWM
watching to see how it follows thru. since broke early in morn, potential for lower

954
MM are trading this here on IWM....9239/9257 buy sell levels
intraday

951
** Inv banks have also dropped their sell levels to 95 fom 96 IWM

949
*** Invesmtent Bank update:   They have now dropped their buy levels in IWM to 90 from 91. usually this means that 91 will be hit, with a move later to 90..the older levels like 91 still tend to stick a little and give stalls bounces.

that applies to swings, not intraday

944
IWM looks like it will break yesterdays low, higher hi on tza expected

942
LOL this nugt sure is volatile..sudden big green 3min candle here again


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Tuesday, April 2, 2013

tues thoughts

340
and there it is...IWM broke yest low as expected  ••
the .77 was more impt than yest low itself...MM "hidden" level

325
i menat brk yest low poss...typo...iwm

325
still a few MM hanging out at IWM low of day...but its breakable vulnerable. obviously wont break if they gobble up at low...but vulnerable...watching

324
.80 and .77 trgts have been hit on IWM..watching to see if a lower low comes

306
DUST up 11% today...UVXY down today 5%  ...nugt down 11% ... LOL that nugt dust can really move when it gets going...both ways...imagine outperforming the volatility vxx LOL

258
iwm MM action suggests now if .80 breaks, then test of .67 low of day...lil change

237
interesting the level is 9277 vs 9269 low of day...the MM have set it above the low...imo the more impt of the 2 is 9277

break of 9277 would suggest good chance of lower low intraday and that the .69 might break on first try...if it even gets to .77

236
9301 and 9277 IWM are MM buy levels...then the Inv Bank 9100
a piercing of the new MM level at 9277 could be very signify if it comes

235
iwm 9301/9340 MM levels...havent changed...no drastic moves until the levles are either pierced or MM changes them

231
738 uvxy...some MM lined up there for sell

228
MM UVXY buy sell levles 730/760

228
MM dropped IWM buy to 93.01

203
for multi weeks months holders: imo GDX miners are showing capitulation signs and will see very good returns in coming weeks months. a turtle trade....like the multi week months aapl trade ... this capit is not just today but rather stretches back farther in time...not talking about a single day capit

151
you cannot see it on the USO chart, but right now oil futures CL are testing their overnight high
so resist here in oil, tho prior high above 9720 is 9785 so could go for 9800...but imo lower oil swing, higher eco

134
theres the lil bounce in es and iwm, makes sense
 trading by MM,,,no real investment
9345 sell level on iwm, last 9333...will see if they keep trading and sell there

131
es and iwm....3min looks breakable lower, but atm MM are holding bids very close to this price...may bounce tho it looks opposite...things not aligned atm

130
735 is a uvxy MM sell level...so need to get over 737 for any accel to 758 next MM sell level
.last 735

128
74% rang on ES short just now at 1566

127
mini breaks in 15min es support,,,but small ones,,,watching to see if volatil increases

1247
so if iwm gets to 96 that would be area i'd add shorts, swing..not today
else keep existing shorts for 91 trgt

1247
Inv Bank 91 buy 96 sell levels for IWM


1227
bought gdx a little too early. thought the 15min chart would bounce more to give scalp profit, and then buy again.  but i dont mind holding it overnight as swing

1216
Inv Bank for GDX: 35.50 and 3800 buy/sell

1215
***** Investment Banks / Market Maker update: for swings.  might take a little while, not likely today, but IWM 91.00 is now a reasonable target. New Investment Bank buy levels now dropped to 91.00 on iwm russel.

9346 last iwm. 9100 would give a nice move in tza. i remain in tza, bought near this level awhile ago

1157
MM on uvxy buy sell 730/740. panic 1 is 710 where i might buy some


1154
nugt scalp...trgt is next higher hi on 3min chart, trgt 3683 gdx

1146
iwm ready to test next MM level....getting lil followthru on the 72% alert

1111
yea market makers 9350 and 9325 are buy areas in iwm now...72% rang but not everyything lined up
the alert usually rings early, before the MM lower the bids

1108
iwm 72% short rang...uvxy long...for scalp...alert only i'm not taking positions
or long tza rang too

1051
gdx support 3620--3650 on daily chart...simple strat...bought support test (for nugt i use gdx chart)

1050
long 4oo shares NUGT

1038
bought 2000 shares AKS in vse port,,steel sector comp
may go lower in ask...but its getting "too far" from its 5 period moving avg on daily chart.... simple strategy...modest targets on it just like last time in AKS, since it is in a downtrend atm

1029
put another way, yesterday iwm went to equiv of spx 1535 area but spx low was only 1555 area...a 20 pt diff in spx...200ish points dow

1024
a look at IWM and SPY shows that iwm russel is much weaker, which is bearish for both imo for swings. tho spx seems to be going after that highly advertised all time high 1576.09.

but yesterdays IWM low was near its feb 20 and march 6 highs, which is also its breakout higher point in march 6/7.  SPY did not make it down there...

pattern in spy daily is a wedge from feb 25-present. iwm in a rectangle that keeps testing its breakout point.

946
ie Inv Bank bias is lower, MM no bias in trade mode atm....common at the open of day

945
MM: on iwm major ones stepped aside aka inv banks...MM in trade mode here without bias up or down

939
SCO still valid near this price for swings imo,

936
IWM russel Market Makers selling some here 93.87,,,applicable more to swings...may let it up higher but selling some here

924
makes sense to take some profits today on silver shorts DSLV from 4 days ago

920
some initial heavy vol selling in oil futures this morn. looks like oil wants to break yest low after test. i remain short swing in oil via SCO

this is an example if diversifying...mentioned yesterday taking small 2% profit on UVXY for some of the uvxy shares, and bought sco with it on the oil bounce yesterday


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Monday, April 1, 2013

Friday thoughts


358
tza should be 968 not 960 here

357
MM are not participating much here as we near the close...at least not now this is not pros buying
may see some reactions AH

353
MM cleared uvxy for 797 up,,,last 777


341
on a surge up today, tza will prob be stopped near 9.88 if it got there. it already hit the 970 prev trgt

336
only 2% gain on that piece, but plan was to add the 2-3000 shares today then sell them...so out for nnow...holding rest

336
sold 3000 of uvxy here...to reduce shares and take some profit...holding other 6000 shares

331
MM stubbornly holding bids now on es russel...no big drop unless they drop them, or ask drops...

still see lower es russel.higher uvxy. for swing

328
ES was able to get the bounce within 9 minutes...now watching reaction...can it sustain or will fail?
typical reaction when declines are result of dropped bids vs dropped ask, esp when it tests prior support...initial bounce vs run thru the supp

320
es needs to bounce in 9min or else trouble in 3mincharts

318
MM are NOT selling this, at least not yet. ie, this action is result of them dropping the bids, not the ask, in russel spx

but they did sell it last week some, and think they will switch sides to sell, process takes time

316
as expected ES testing its daily lows. and they look breakable lower,today


310
despite MM wanting to sell more shares than buy...they have had bids most of day in russel (ask on tza inv)

cleared for test, will watch reaction

310
MM:  tza cleared for test up of 967,,,first clear all day by MM

239
My curr rank is #7 in Wall street journal contest, of 260 traders

236
if ones port has too much uvxy in it, could sell some uvxy here and buy sco, diversify

235
ES 3m 5m and 15min charts all broke support, with a bearish hourly chart...may test lows and mkae lower low, for lower es higher uvxy tza


225
Invesment banks rasied tza sell to 989 from 974,,,MM still selling it lower b4 then, but raise by Inv Bank bullish for tza swing

218
if tza can close today near here, pref over 958, would look good for swings tza chart
and for uvxy too

156
new stock contest started today april 1.
I am Curr rank 8 of 253 traders
Now in 2 seperate trading contests.

contests are at:
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/dart-april-2013/ranking?index=0&total=253
http://www.marketwatch.com/game/the-big-game-2013

105
watching for poss fast bounce on tza if it hits 960.  last 962

100
before re-entry in NUGT i like to see slv gold slw nem alll stabilized together

1246
MM still crowding each other on both buy and sell intraday...watching and waiting for them to step aside a lil...when they do, then larger move can come intraday

1236
not sure but we may see a decent move this week...this increased MM and Inv Bank activity is warning of this... no crazy volume yet but the warning often comes first. increased attitude of MM "need to do something now, getting bit impatient"... Investment Banks usually are on the sidelines more but they are perking up today...

1234
MM still interested in selling more shares than they want to buy, for now, russel and spy. bearish for russel. bullish for tza uvxy swings

1224
 step one, es here. uvxy and es acting as expected so far.

1200
3min and 15min bear flag on ES...may go higher, if so may add more uvxy...still room to add...but decided to enter here on


1159
added 2000 shares uvxy to vse port
es beggining to look weak here, so added some. now have shares avail to both scalp and swing. 7,000 shares in vse now

1153
scalps on ES:  a move up on 3min chart is shortable imo. or weakness here on 3min chart is shortable near curr price if it begins to weaken more. first bounce likely be sold on that big red candle 60m, tho 15min and 3min may or may not want a lill higher first. last es 1556

1106
also watching if SPY wants to go to 155.50. last 155.82. if 155.50 still puts in a higher low,,stall...then see reaction in coming minutes hours after 155.50...to decide for higher or lower

1103
im still holding uvxy for now...see what spy es iwm tza do,,,may just be getting started
when i see big red candles on es 15 and 60min charts...like to give them a lil time to follow thru

1053
970 tza trgt where heaviest resist is at intraday

1021
Market Maker update from prior post: some less active MM are interested and awake today, and atm they are accumulating shorts or sellig into strength....however atm they are trying to hold price up for a bit in order to let themselves accum...could see higher and bounces, volatility...for swing atm MM new actions suggest short side for swing in iwm spy....they are actually buying the russel a bit as i type this, but buying a lil, then sellig into the bounces...selling interest is much more than buy interest

1017
SCO trgt 3790--3800 area... last Tues 10am high...using uso chart for exit on sco since uso doesnt decay

1014
personally i never base a vix, vxx,uvxy,xiv trade by looking at vix alone...i find it helpful to look at spy iwm qqq and get confirmation from those too... if i want vix long, does spy short look good? ...but thats just me LOL fwiw

1011
newly entered SCO oil shorts from friday are at target 1 now...holding for higher sco trgt,lower oil uso cl

1006
this has a tendency to cause some volatility, as the MM begin fighting and jockeying against each other...more buyers and sellers,may see increased volume today... maybe related to March 31, April 1 end/beg of month, but still imo thats not the only thing happening

1005
its going to take a little while to figure out exactly what is going on, but there is a SIGNIFICANT change in Market Maker and Investment Bank activity and jockeying today... synopsis is that there are some players that are usually less-active that are interested and active today...but atm cannot determine long or short bias of such upgraded interest and activity


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".

Thursday, March 28, 2013

Thurs thoughts

349
TZA 9.32 sell area now...just raised

317
where is USO and SCO in relation to 5 period moving avergae on daily?
too far away,.... one reason among many that took SCO this morn... its a reliable simple indicator, use it often.. a better measure of oversold/overbought than stochastic

159
uvxy may move up here...if so i am going to reduce some shares in UVXY and take some profits....it may decide to go in dribble mode for a few days..that slow painful drip lower characterized before big huge green candles


1113
ES making new highs. VXX UVXY are not making new lows. bearish for ES SPX, bullish for VXX UVXY swings

1002
bought sco long. 1000 shares vse port
 if oil goes down, sco will go up 2x

949
tza panic buy level 9.00 today.  sell levels 9.34 atm and 9.55

947
i'm letting uvyx bake a little here. can easily move thru pivots levels when its ready


Trades can be viewed at the links below.

http://www.marketwatch.com/game/christopherstockguy-100k-port/portfolio/Holdings 


For details on the portfolio see this posting:

* ChristopherStockGuy is not an investment advisory service, nor a registered investment advisor or broker-dealer and does not purport to tell or suggest which securities or currencies customers should buy or sell for themselves. For details, see the post from SATURDAY, AUGUST 15, 2009 titled "Disclaimer".